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Journal Cover American Journal of Political Science
  [SJR: 5.101]   [H-I: 114]   [270 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0092-5853 - ISSN (Online) 1540-5907
   Published by John Wiley and Sons Homepage  [1579 journals]
  • Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls
           and Solutions
    • Authors: Andrew C. Eggers; Ronny Freier, Veronica Grembi, Tommaso Nannicini
      Abstract: In many countries, important features of municipal government (such as the electoral system, mayors' salaries, and the number of councillors) depend on whether the municipality is above or below arbitrary population thresholds. Several papers have used a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to measure the effects of these threshold-based policies on political and economic outcomes. Using evidence from France, Germany, and Italy, we highlight two common pitfalls that arise in exploiting population-based policies (compound treatment and sorting), and we provide guidance for detecting and addressing these pitfalls. Even when these problems are present, population-threshold RDD may be the best available research design for studying the effects of certain policies and political institutions.
      PubDate: 2017-09-22T07:55:32.602467-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12332
  • How the Public Defines Terrorism
    • Authors: Connor Huff; Joshua D. Kertzer
      Abstract: Every time a major violent act takes place in the United States, a public debate erupts as to whether it should be considered terrorism. Political scientists have offered a variety of conceptual frameworks, but have neglected to explore how ordinary citizens understand terrorism, despite the central role the public plays in our understanding of the relationship between terrorism and government action in the wake of violence. We synthesize components of both scholarly definitions and public debates to formulate predictions for how various attributes of incidents affect the likelihood they are perceived as terrorism. Combining a conjoint experiment with machine learning techniques and automated content analysis of media coverage, we show the importance not only of the type and severity of violence, but also the attributed motivation for the incident and social categorization of the actor. The findings demonstrate how the language used to describe violent incidents, for which the media has considerable latitude, affects the likelihood the public classifies incidents as terrorism.
      PubDate: 2017-09-12T08:00:39.451989-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12329
  • Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties
    • Authors: Lucas M. Novaes
      Abstract: This article shows that the disloyalty of political brokers causes party fragility. Lacking distinctive brands, organization, and activists to mobilize individuals, parties “hire” local notables to broker votes among a local, nonpartisan constituency. However, brokers may be unreliable agents, regularly changing political allegiances in search of better returns for their brokerage among the module of voters they control. This free agency from brokers hinders durable party–voter linkages and results in electorally vulnerable parties. Measuring how brokers influence parties is empirically complex, but taking advantage of the fact that in Brazil these agents are also local candidates, this article demonstrates the negative electoral consequences of brokers' free agency on party performance. Natural experiments and an unexpected, temporary institutional reform that discouraged disloyalty for brokers demonstrate this relationship.
      PubDate: 2017-09-04T07:22:30.909864-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12331
  • The Economic Consequences of Partisanship in a Polarized Era
    • Authors: Christopher McConnell; Yotam Margalit, Neil Malhotra, Matthew Levendusky
      Abstract: With growing affective polarization in the United States, partisanship is increasingly an impediment to cooperation in political settings. But does partisanship also affect behavior in nonpolitical settings' We show evidence that it does, demonstrating its effect on economic outcomes across a range of experiments in real-world environments. A field experiment in an online labor market indicates that workers request systematically lower reservation wages when the employer shares their political stance, reflecting a preference to work for co-partisans. We conduct two field experiments with consumers and find a preference for dealing with co-partisans, especially among those with strong partisan attachments. Finally, via a population-based, incentivized survey experiment, we find that the influence of political considerations on economic choices extends also to weaker partisans. Whereas earlier studies show the political consequences of polarization in American politics, our findings suggest that partisanship spills over beyond the political, shaping cooperation in everyday economic behavior.
      PubDate: 2017-08-31T05:50:33.363932-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12330
  • Elite Influence' Religion and the Electoral Success of the Nazis
    • Authors: Jörg L. Spenkuch; Philipp Tillmann
      Abstract: In Weimar Germany, the Catholic Church vehemently warned ordinary parishioners about the dangers of extremist parties. We establish that constituencies' religious composition is a key empirical predictor of Nazi vote shares—dwarfing the explanatory power of any other demographic or socioeconomic variable. Even after carefully accounting for observational differences, Catholics were far less likely to vote for the NSDAP than their Protestant counterparts. The evidence suggests that this disparity was, in large part, due to the sway of the Catholic Church and its dignitaries. At the same time, we show that attempts to immunize Catholics against the radical left failed to achieve the desired result. To explain the puzzling asymmetry in the Church's influence at the ballot box, we develop a simple theoretical framework of elite influence in electoral politics.
      PubDate: 2017-08-10T09:26:20.059597-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12328
  • No Need to Watch: How the Effects of Partisan Media Can Spread via
           Interpersonal Discussions
    • Authors: James N. Druckman; Matthew S. Levendusky, Audrey McLain
      Abstract: To what extent do partisan media sources shape public opinion' On its face, it would appear that the impact of partisan media is limited, given that it attracts a relatively small audience. We argue, however, that its influence may extend beyond its direct audience via a two-step communication flow. Specifically, those who watch and are impacted by partisan media outlets talk to and persuade others who did not watch. We present experimental results that demonstrate this process. We therefore show that previous studies may have significantly underestimated the effect of these outlets. We also illustrate that how the two-step communication flow works is contingent upon the precise composition of the discussion group (e.g., is it consistent of all fellow partisans or a mix of partisans'). We conclude by highlighting what our results imply about the study of media, preference formation, and partisan polarization.
      PubDate: 2017-08-08T08:01:04.273946-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12325
  • Making Washington Work: Legislative Entrepreneurship and the Personal Vote
           from the Gilded Age to the Great Depression
    • Authors: Charles J. Finocchiaro; Scott A. MacKenzie
      Abstract: Studies of bill sponsorship in the modern Congress highlight the effects of constituency characteristics, seniority, and committee membership. These studies, however, are limited in their ability to assess the effects of institutions. We provide the first systematic study of bill sponsorship in the premodern House of Representatives. In doing so, we take advantage of this period's expansive legislative agenda and variation in electoral system rules. Using matching and event count models, we estimate the effects of institutions, electoral competition, and members’ institutional positions and political experiences on their sponsorship of different types of bills. We find that two reforms—the Australian ballot and nominating primary—increased sponsorship of bills designed to cultivate personal votes, thereby contributing to the growth in private legislation and bills aimed at local constituencies. Our results establish these reforms as a major event shaping lawmaking activity and, with it, the character of contemporary representation.
      PubDate: 2017-08-01T11:10:56.208535-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12326
  • The Legacy of Political Violence across Generations
    • Authors: Noam Lupu; Leonid Peisakhin
      Abstract: Does political violence leave a lasting legacy on identities, attitudes, and behaviors' We argue that violence shapes the identities of victims and that families transmit these effects across generations. Inherited identities then impact the contemporary attitudes and behaviors of the descendants of victims. Testing these hypotheses is fraught with methodological challenges; to overcome them, we study the deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944 and the indiscriminate way deportees died from starvation and disease. We conducted a multigenerational survey of Crimean Tatars in 2014 and find that the descendants of individuals who suffered more intensely identify more strongly with their ethnic group, support more strongly the Crimean Tatar political leadership, hold more hostile attitudes toward Russia, and participate more in politics. But we find that victimization has no lasting effect on religious radicalization. We also provide evidence that identities are passed down from the victims of the deportation to their descendants.
      PubDate: 2017-08-01T11:10:41.360635-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12327
  • How Do Interest Groups Seek Access to Committees'
    • Authors: Alexander Fouirnaies; Andrew B. Hall
      Abstract: Concerns that interest groups use their financial resources to distort the democratic process are long-standing. Surprisingly, though, firms spend little money on political campaigns, and roughly 95% of publicly traded firms in the United States have never contributed to a political campaign. Do interest groups seek political access through their modest contributions, or are these contributions only a minor and forgettable part of the political process' In this article, we present comprehensive evidence that interest groups are extremely sophisticated in the way they make campaign contributions. We collect a new data set on U.S. state legislative committee assignments and legislator procedural powers from 1988 to 2014, merged with campaign finance data, in order to analyze over 440,000 candidate–committee observations across 99 legislatures. Using a series of difference-in-differences designs based on changes in individual legislators' positions in the legislature, we not only show that interest groups seek out committee members, but we also show that they value what we call indirect access. When a legislator gains procedural powers, interest groups reallocate considerable amounts of money to her. The results reveal how interest groups in a wide range of democratic settings seek to influence the policy process not only by seeking direct access to policy makers but by seeking indirect access to legislative procedure as well.
      PubDate: 2017-07-31T06:20:38.217953-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12323
  • When Are Agenda Setters Valuable'
    • Authors: Alexander Fouirnaies
      Abstract: Why do industries donate money to legislative campaigns when roll-call votes suggest that donors gain nothing in return' I argue that corporate donors may shape policy outcomes by influencing powerful agenda setters in the early stages of lawmaking. On the basis of a new data set of more than 45,000 individual state legislator sessions (1988–2012), I document how agenda control is deemed valuable to legislators and groups seeking influence on policy. Employing a difference-in-differences design, I assess the revealed price, as measured by campaign contributions, that firms are willing to pay for access to committee and party leaders and document how this price varies across industries and institutions. The results indicate that industries systematically funnel money to the legislative agenda setters by whom they are regulated, and to those endowed with important procedural powers. I document that the value of agenda-setter positions has increased dramatically in recent years. Finally, exploiting changes in state laws, I show that relaxing contribution limits significantly benefits committee chairs and party leaders more so than it does other legislators, suggesting that agenda setters have strong incentives to obstruct restrictive campaign finance reforms.
      PubDate: 2017-07-26T11:50:37.537207-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12316
  • The Election Monitor's Curse
    • Authors: Zhaotian Luo; Arturas Rozenas
      Abstract: Election monitoring has become a key instrument of democracy promotion. Election monitors routinely expect to deter fraud and prevent post-election violence, but in reality, post-election violence often increases when monitors do expose fraud. We argue that monitors can make all elections less fraudulent and more peaceful on average, but only by causing more violence in fraudulent elections. Due to this curse, strategic election monitors can make a positive impact on elections only if their objectives are aligned in a very specific fashion. Monitors who do not aim to prevent violence can be effective only if they are unbiased, whereas monitors who do aim to prevent violence can be effective only if they are moderately biased against the government. Consequently, election monitors with misaligned objectives will fail to prevent violence, whereas monitors with well-aligned objectives will be blamed for causing violence.
      PubDate: 2017-07-25T06:14:32.828919-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12320
  • Political Brokers: Partisans or Agents' Evidence from the Mexican
           Teachers' Union
    • Authors: Horacio Larreguy; Cesar E. Montiel Olea, Pablo Querubin
      Abstract: Political brokers mobilize voters all over the world, yet little is known about what motivates them to do so. This article theorizes about two drivers of brokers' efforts: (1) incentives—monetary rewards or sanctions—and monitoring and (2) partisan attachment. We examine our theory using data on the Mexican National Educational Workers Union (SNTE), Latin America's largest union and a well-known political machine. Consistent with the role of teachers as brokers, we find that the vote share of parties supported by the SNTE machine is higher in polling stations located in schools. This effect is absent when teachers are asked to mobilize voters in support of a party for which they have no partisan attachment, and it is uncorrelated with the union's monitoring capacity. This suggests that partisan attachment, rather than incentives and monitoring, explains the SNTE's effectiveness as a political machine.
      PubDate: 2017-07-25T06:11:32.703954-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12322
  • Have Your Cake and Eat It Too' Cointegration and Dynamic Inference
           from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models
    • Authors: Andrew Q. Philips
      Abstract: Although recent articles have stressed the importance of testing for unit roots and cointegration in time-series analysis, practitioners have been left without a straightforward procedure to implement this advice. I propose using the autoregressive distributed lag model and bounds cointegration test as an approach to dealing with some of the most commonly encountered issues in time-series analysis. Through Monte Carlo experiments, I show that this procedure performs better than existing cointegration tests under a variety of situations. I illustrate how to implement this strategy with two step-by-step replication examples. To further aid users, I have designed software programs in order to test and dynamically model the results from this approach.
      PubDate: 2017-07-25T06:05:57.956706-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12318
  • Injustice Abroad, Authority at Home' Democracy, Systemic Effects, and
           Global Wrongs
    • Authors: Shmuel Nili
      Abstract: Multiple normative theorists currently link political authority to democratic political procedures. I explore how proponents of this influential view can address a fundamental, but overlooked, puzzle. The puzzle begins from the firm judgment that even a government that keeps democratic procedures intact loses its general authority if it enacts abhorrent major laws. This judgment means that the moral failure of some laws can dissolve the moral authority of other laws—even ones that are quite distinct in their content. But how can we explain these systemic effects of specific laws' I confront this challenge by introducing a global perspective into the discussion of political authority. First, I suggest that we should only adopt an account of systemic effects that can explain how the worst global conduct dissolves a government's general authority. Second, after developing such an account, I use it to reflect on thornier global cases.
      PubDate: 2017-07-21T11:35:33.716659-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12321
  • Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion
    • Authors: Lucas Leemann; Fabio Wasserfallen
      Abstract: The comparative study of subnational units is on the rise. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MrP) has become the standard method for estimating subnational public opinion. Unfortunately, MrP comes with stringent data demands. As a consequence, scholars cannot apply MrP in countries without detailed census data, and when such data are available, the modeling is restricted to a few variables. This article introduces multilevel regression with synthetic poststratification (MrsP), which relaxes the data requirement of MrP to marginal distributions, substantially increases the prediction precision of the method, and extends its use to countries without census data. The findings of Monte Carlo, U.S., and Swiss analyses show that, using the same predictors, MrsP usually performs in standard applications as well as the currently used standard approach, and it is superior when additional predictors are modeled. The better performance and the more straightforward implementation promise that MrsP will further stimulate subnational research.
      PubDate: 2017-07-21T11:30:43.676872-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12319
  • Electoral Ambiguity and Political Representation
    • Authors: Navin Kartik; Richard Weelden, Stephane Wolton
      Abstract: We introduce a Downsian model in which policy-relevant information is revealed to the elected politician after the election. The electorate benefits from giving the elected politician discretion to adapt policies to his information. But limits on discretion are desirable when politicians do not share the electorate's policy preferences. Optimal political representation generally consists of a mixture of the delegate (no discretion) and trustee (full discretion) models. Ambiguous electoral platforms are essential for achieving beneficial representation. Nevertheless, electoral competition does not ensure optimal representation: The winning candidate's platform is generally overly ambiguous. While our theory rationalizes a positive correlation between ambiguity and electoral success, it shows that the relationship need not be causal.
      PubDate: 2017-07-10T12:00:44.718176-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12310
  • Fictitious Freedom: A Polanyian Critique of the Republican Revival
    • Authors: Steven Klein
      Abstract: Prominent republican theorists invoke anonymous orders such as the market as mechanisms that secure freedom as non-domination. Drawing on Karl Polanyi's account of fictitious commodities and demonstration of the impossibility of a just and rational market society, this article critically scrutinizes neo-republican assumptions regarding the market, develops an alternate social theory within which to situate the ideal of non-domination, and illustrates the importance of this reconfiguration for the kind of collective agents and political strategies that can be expected to advance republican freedom in the economy.
      PubDate: 2017-07-04T12:00:23.859142-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12317
  • Multiple Dimensions of Bureaucratic Discrimination: Evidence from German
           Welfare Offices
    • Authors: Johannes Hemker; Anselm Rink
      Abstract: A growing experimental literature uses response rates to fictional requests to measure discrimination against ethnic minorities. This article argues that restricting attention to response rates can lead to faulty inferences about substantive discrimination depending on how response dummies are correlated with other response characteristics. We illustrate the relevance of this problem by means of a conjoint experiment among all German welfare offices, in which we randomly varied five traits and designed requests to allow for a substantive coding of response quality. We find that response rates are statistically indistinguishable across treatment conditions. However, putative non-Germans receive responses of significantly lower quality, potentially deterring them from applying for benefits. We also find observational evidence suggesting that discrimination is more pronounced in welfare offices run by local governments than in those embedded in the national bureaucracy. We discuss implications for the study of equality in the public sphere.
      PubDate: 2017-06-30T07:33:24.36965-05:0
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12312
  • Do Rural Migrants Divide Ethnically in the City' Evidence from an
           Ethnographic Experiment in India
    • Authors: Tariq Thachil
      Abstract: Despite rapid urbanization across the Global South, identity politics within rural-urban migrant communities remains understudied. Past scholarship is divided over whether village-based ethnic divisions will erode or deepen within diverse poor migrant populations. I assess these divergent predictions through an ‘ethnographic survey experiment’ (N=4,218) among unique samples of poor migrants in India. Contra conventional expectations, I find intra-class ethnic divisions are neither uniformly transcended nor entrenched across key arenas of migrant life. Instead, I observe variation consistent with situational theories predicting ethnic divisions will be muted only in contexts triggering a common identity among migrants. I pinpoint urban employers and politicians as these triggers. Poor migrants ignore ethnic divisions when facing these elites, who perceive and treat them in class terms. However, migrants remain divided in direct interactions with each other. These bifurcated findings imply poor migrants may be available for both class-based and ethnic mobilization in the city.
      PubDate: 2017-06-30T07:31:55.264849-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12315
  • Front-Door Difference-in-Differences Estimators
    • Authors: Adam N. Glynn; Konstantin Kashin
      Abstract: We develop front-door difference-in-differences estimators as an extension of front-door estimators. Under one-sided noncompliance, an exclusion restriction, and assumptions analogous to parallel trends assumptions, this extension allows identification when the front-door criterion does not hold. Even if the assumptions are relaxed, we show that the front-door and front-door difference-in-differences estimators may be combined to form bounds. Finally, we show that under one-sided noncompliance, these techniques do not require the use of control units. We illustrate these points with an application to a job training study and with an application to Florida's early in-person voting program. For the job training study, we show that these techniques can recover an experimental benchmark. For the Florida program, we find some evidence that early in-person voting had small positive effects on turnout in 2008. This provides a counterpoint to recent claims that early voting had a negative effect on turnout in 2008.
      PubDate: 2017-06-23T09:20:31.387144-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12311
  • The Fulfillment of Parties’ Election Pledges: A Comparative Study on the
           Impact of Power Sharing
    • Authors: Robert Thomson; Terry Royed, Elin Naurin, Joaquín Artés, Rory Costello, Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, Mark Ferguson, Petia Kostadinova, Catherine Moury, François Pétry, Katrin Praprotnik
      Abstract: Why are some parties more likely than others to keep the promises they made during previous election campaigns' This study provides the first large-scale comparative analysis of pledge fulfillment with common definitions. We study the fulfillment of over 20,000 pledges made in 57 election campaigns in 12 countries, and our findings challenge the common view of parties as promise breakers. Many parties that enter government executives are highly likely to fulfill their pledges, and significantly more so than parties that do not enter government executives. We explain variation in the fulfillment of governing parties’ pledges by the extent to which parties share power in government. Parties in single-party executives, both with and without legislative majorities, have the highest fulfillment rates. Within coalition governments, the likelihood of pledge fulfillment is highest when the party receives the chief executive post and when another governing party made a similar pledge.
      PubDate: 2017-06-06T04:41:12.453389-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12313
  • Coercive Leadership
    • Authors: Dimitri Landa; Scott A. Tyson
      Abstract: We develop a model of leadership in which an informed leader has some degree of coercive influence over her followers (agents). Agents benefit from coordination but face two distinct challenges: dispersed information and heterogeneous preferences. The leader's coercive power facilitates coordination by weakening the effect presented by both of these challenges through “binding” agents to a strategically chosen policy. The leader's policy choice becomes more informative to the agents about the leader's privately held information as her coercive capacity increases. By adjusting her policy choice in response to available private and public information, the coercive leader achieves her preferred average of agents' actions, and in so doing, neutralizes the possibly deleterious coordinating influence of public information. We develop implications of our analysis for understanding autocratic leadership in different political and organizational contexts.
      PubDate: 2017-06-06T04:41:09.026098-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12303
  • A Bottom-Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy
    • Authors: Joshua D. Kertzer; Thomas Zeitzoff
      Abstract: If public opinion about foreign policy is such an elite-driven process, why does the public often disagree with what elites have to say' We argue here that elite cue-taking models in International Relations are both overly pessimistic and unnecessarily restrictive. Members of the public may lack information about the world around them, but they do not lack principles, and information need not only cascade from the top down. We present the results from five survey experiments where we show that cues from social peers are at least as strong as those from political elites. Our theory and results build on a growing number of findings that individuals are embedded in a social context that combines with their general orientations toward foreign policy in shaping responses toward the world around them. Thus, we suggest the public is perhaps better equipped for espousing judgments in foreign affairs than many of our top-down models claim.
      PubDate: 2017-06-06T04:35:29.017015-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12314
  • Reconsidering the Role of Politics in Leaving Religion: The Importance of
    • Authors: Paul A. Djupe; Jacob R. Neiheisel, Anand E. Sokhey
      Abstract: Studies have pointed to politics as an important force driving people away from religion—the argument is that the dogmatic politics of the Christian Right have alienated liberals and moderates, effectively threatening organized religion in America. We argue that existing explanations are incomplete; a proper reconsideration necessitates distinguishing processes of affiliation (with specific congregations) from identification (with religious traditions). Using three data sets, we find evidence that qualifies and complements existing narratives of religious exit. Evaluations of congregational political fit drive retention decisions. At the same time, opposition to the Christian Right only bears on retention decisions when it is salient in a congregational context, affecting primarily evangelicals and Republicans. These results help us understand the dynamics of the oft-observed relationship between the Christian Right and deidentification and urge us to adopt a broader, more pluralistic view of the politicization of American religion.
      PubDate: 2017-05-11T11:05:45.40789-05:0
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12308
  • Paths of Recruitment: Rational Social Prospecting in Petition Canvassing
    • Authors: Clayton Nall; Benjamin Schneer, Daniel Carpenter
      Abstract: Petition canvassers are political recruiters. Building upon the rational prospector model, we theorize that rational recruiting strategies are dynamic (Bayesian and time-conscious), spatial (constrained by geography), and social (conditioned on relations between canvasser and prospect). Our theory predicts that canvassers will exhibit homophily in their canvassing preferences and will alternate between “door-to-door” and “attractor” (working in a central location) strategies based upon systematic geographical variation. They will adjust their strategies midstream (mid-petition) based upon experience. Introducing methods to analyze canvassing data, we test these hypotheses on geocoded signatory lists from two petition drives—a 2005–6 anti–Iraq War initiative in Wisconsin and an 1839 antislavery campaign in New York City. Canvassers in these campaigns exhibited homophily to the point of following geographically and politically “inefficient” paths. In the aggregate, these patterns may exacerbate political inequality, limiting political involvement of the poorer and less educated.
      PubDate: 2017-04-21T06:22:08.408511-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12305
  • Strategies of Resistance: Diversification and Diffusion
    • Authors: Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham; Marianne Dahl, Anne Frugé
      Abstract: Why do organizations choose to use nonviolence? Why do they choose specific nonviolent tactics? Existing quantitative work centers on mass nonviolent campaign, but much of the nonviolence employed in contentious politics is smaller-scale nonviolent direct action. In this article, we explore the determinants of nonviolence with new data at the organization level in self-determination disputes from 1960 to 2005. We present a novel argument about the interdependence of tactical choices among nonviolent options in self-determination movements. Given limitations on their capabilities, competition among organizations in a shared movement, and different resource requirements for nonviolent strategies, we show that organizations have incentives to diversify tactics rather than just copy other organizations. The empirical analysis reveals a rich picture of varied organizational resistance choices, and a complex web of interdependence among tactics.
      PubDate: 2017-04-13T12:07:25.96823-05:0
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12304
  • How Do Indifferent Voters Decide? The Political Importance of Implicit
    • Authors: Timothy J. Ryan
      Abstract: A hallmark finding in the study of public opinion is that many citizens approach the political realm with one-sided attitudes that color their judgments, making attitude change difficult. This finding highlights the importance of citizens with weak prior attitudes, since they might represent a segment of the electorate that is more susceptible to influence. The judgment processes of citizens with weak attitudes, however, are poorly understood. Drawing from dual-process models in psychology, I test the idea that citizens with weak explicit attitudes rely on implicit attitudes as they render political judgments. I find support for this conjecture in experimental and observational data. There are two main contributions. First, I show that an important and understudied segment of the electorate arrives at political decisions via automatic (but nonetheless predictable) mental processes. Second, I characterize the conditions under which implicit political attitudes matter more and less.
      PubDate: 2017-04-13T12:01:59.383965-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12307
  • Cities as Lobbyists
    • Authors: Rebecca Goldstein; Hye Young You
      Abstract: Individual cities are active interest groups in lobbying the federal government, and yet the dynamics of this intergovernmental lobbying are poorly understood. We argue that preference incongruence between a city and its parent state government leads to underprovision of public goods, and cities need to appeal to the federal government for additional resources. We provide evidence for this theory using a data set of over 13,800 lobbying disclosures filed by cities with populations over 25,000 between 1999 and 2012. Income inequality and ethnic fragmentation are also highly related to federal lobbying activities. Using an instrumental variables analysis of earmark and Recovery Act grant data, we show that each dollar a city spends on lobbying generates substantial returns.
      PubDate: 2017-04-11T07:26:00.635908-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12306
  • Taking the Law to Court: Citizen Suits and the Legislative Process
    • Authors: Marion Dumas
      Abstract: The institution of citizen suits is a decentralized form of public participation that allows citizens to influence the implementation of public laws in courts. How does this institution influence policymaking? This article proposes a model of citizen suits. It then analyzes how this institution influences legislative decisions. The legislature bargains to choose the budget, distributive spending, and spending on an ideologically contested public good (e.g., health care or environmental protection). I find that citizen suits enable courts to forge a compromise between opponents and proponents of the public good by responding to the diverse claims of citizens. Anticipating the mobilization of citizens in courts, legislators in turn craft more socially efficient bills, with less distributive spending, which better represent the distribution of preferences for the public good compared to when citizens have no role in the implementation of legislation.
      PubDate: 2017-04-11T07:20:40.582666-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12302
  • Dynamics of Policymaking: Stepping Back to Leap Forward, Stepping Forward
           to Keep Back
    • Authors: Peter Buisseret; Dan Bernhardt
      Abstract: We study dynamic policymaking when today's policy agreement becomes tomorrow's status quo, agents account for the consequences of today's policies for future policy outcomes, and there is uncertainty about who will hold future political power to propose and veto future policy changes. Today's agenda setter holds back from fully exploiting present opportunities to move policy toward her ideal point whenever future proposer and veto players are likely to be aligned either in favor of reform or against it. Otherwise, agenda setters advance their short-run interests. Optimal proposals can vary discontinuously and nonmonotonically with political fundamentals.
      PubDate: 2017-04-03T11:35:36.815186-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12301
  • Computer-Assisted Keyword and Document Set Discovery from Unstructured
    • Authors: Gary King; Patrick Lam, Margaret E. Roberts
      Abstract: The (unheralded) first step in many applications of automated text analysis involves selecting keywords to choose documents from a large text corpus for further study. Although all substantive results depend on this choice, researchers usually pick keywords in ad hoc ways that are far from optimal and usually biased. Most seem to think that keyword selection is easy, since they do Google searches every day, but we demonstrate that humans perform exceedingly poorly at this basic task. We offer a better approach, one that also can help with following conversations where participants rapidly innovate language to evade authorities, seek political advantage, or express creativity; generic web searching; eDiscovery; look-alike modeling; industry and intelligence analysis; and sentiment and topic analysis. We develop a computer-assisted (as opposed to fully automated or human-only) statistical approach that suggests keywords from available text without needing structured data as inputs. This framing poses the statistical problem in a new way, which leads to a widely applicable algorithm. Our specific approach is based on training classifiers, extracting information from (rather than correcting) their mistakes, and summarizing results with easy-to-understand Boolean search strings. We illustrate how the technique works with analyses of English texts about the Boston Marathon bombings, Chinese social media posts designed to evade censorship, and others.
      PubDate: 2017-04-03T11:35:33.279278-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12291
  • Erratum for “Candidate Entry and Political Polarization: An Antimedian
           Voter Theorem”, American Journal of Political Science, 58(1):127-143.
    • Authors: Jens Großer; Thomas R. Palfrey
      PubDate: 2017-03-27T15:45:40.00909-05:0
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12299
  • How to Elect More Women: Gender and Candidate Success in a Field
    • Authors: Christopher F. Karpowitz; J. Quin Monson, Jessica Robinson Preece
      Abstract: Women are dramatically underrepresented in legislative bodies, and most scholars agree that the greatest limiting factor is the lack of female candidates (supply). However, voters’ subconscious biases (demand) may also play a role, particularly among conservatives. We designed an original field experiment to test whether messages from party leaders can affect women's electoral success. The experimental treatments involved messages from a state Republican Party chair to the leaders of 1,842 precinct-level caucus meetings. We find that party leaders’ efforts to stoke both supply and demand (and especially both together) increase the number of women elected as delegates to the statewide nominating convention. We replicate this finding in a survey experiment with a national sample of validated Republican primary election voters (N = 2,897). Our results suggest that simple interventions from party leaders can affect the behavior of candidates and voters and ultimately lead to a substantial increase in women's descriptive representation.
      PubDate: 2017-03-24T10:17:46.939546-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12300
  • Mobilizing the Public Against the President: Congress and the Political
           Costs of Unilateral Action
    • Authors: Dino P. Christenson; Douglas L. Kriner
      Abstract: Prior scholarship overlooks the capacity of other actors to raise the political costs of unilateral action by turning public opinion against the president. Through a series of five experiments embedded in nationally representative surveys, we demonstrate Congress's ability to erode support for unilateral actions by raising both constitutional and policy-based objections to the exercise of unilateral power. Congressional challenges to the unilateral president diminish support for executive action across a range of policy areas in both the foreign and domestic realm and are particularly influential when they explicitly argue that presidents are treading on congressional prerogatives. We also find evidence that constitutional challenges are more effective when levied by members of Congress than by other actors. The results resolve a debate in the literature and suggest a mechanism through which Congress might exercise a constraint on the president, even when it is unable to check him legislatively.
      PubDate: 2017-03-08T12:10:30.345177-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12298
  • The Vicarious Bases of Perceived Injustice
    • Authors: Jeffery J. Mondak; Jon Hurwitz, Mark Peffley, Paul Testa
      Abstract: Profound differences exist in how Americans from various racial and ethnic groups view police and court officials. We argue that vicarious experiences contribute to this racial and ethnic divide. Drawing on research on social communication, social network composition, and negativity biases in perception and judgment, we devise a theoretical framework to articulate why vicarious experiences magnify racial and ethnic disparities in evaluations of judicial actors. Four hypotheses are tested using original survey data from the state of Washington. Results provide strong evidence that vicarious experiences influence citizens’ evaluations of both police and courts, and they do so in a manner that widens racial divides in how those actors are perceived.
      PubDate: 2017-02-28T15:25:24.285912-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12297
  • Spatial Models of Legislative Effectiveness
    • Authors: Matthew P. Hitt; Craig Volden, Alan E. Wiseman
      Abstract: Spatial models of policymaking have evolved from the median voter theorem to the inclusion of institutional considerations such as committees, political parties, and various voting and amendment rules. Such models, however, implicitly assume that no policy is better than another at solving public policy problems and that all policy makers are equally effective at advancing proposals. We relax these assumptions, allowing some legislators to be more effective than others at creating high-quality proposals. The resulting Legislative Effectiveness Model (LEM) offers three main benefits. First, it can better account for policy changes based on the quality of the status quo, changing our understanding of how to overcome gridlock in polarized legislatures. Second, it generalizes canonical models of legislative politics, such as median voter, setter, and pivotal politics models, all of which emerge as special cases within the LEM. Third, the LEM offers significant new empirical predictions, some of which we test (and find support for) within the U.S. Congress.
      PubDate: 2017-02-01T16:30:38.247014-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12296
  • To Revoke or Not Revoke' The Political Determinants of Executive Order
    • Authors: Sharece Thrower
      Abstract: Though many scholars study the formation of policy, less attention is given to its endurance. In this article, I seek to determine what contributes to the longevity of policy by examining the case of presidential unilateralism. While scholars widely recognize presidents’ ability to unilaterally make policy with executive orders, they largely do not account for how these same orders can be easily changed by subsequent administrations. To address this deficiency, I develop a theory of executive order duration based on both time-invariant characteristics of the order and time-variant changes in the political climate it faces. Using survival analysis to examine all orders revoked between 1937 and 2013, I find support for the theory. This study has implications for understanding the endurance of executive orders and other policy instruments as part of the law as well as understanding the strategic actions of policy makers given the transient nature of these tools.
      PubDate: 2017-01-31T14:30:37.85912-05:0
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12294
  • Identifying the Source of Incumbency Advantage through a Constitutional
    • Authors: Mariana Lopes da Fonseca
      Abstract: This study provides one of the first causal estimates of both the personal and partisan incumbency advantages. Using data on six local elections taking place during the last 20 years in 278 municipalities in Portugal, it relies on a reform introducing mayoral term limits as a natural experiment that creates exogenous variation on the incumbency status of officeholders while holding the incumbency status of the party constant. A new methodology combining two quasi-experimental methods, the regression discontinuity and the difference-in-discontinuities designs, allows for a credible estimation of the independent personal and partisan returns to incumbency. Results causally identify the personal effect as the driver of the incumbency advantage.
      PubDate: 2017-01-31T14:30:34.999827-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12287
  • Language Shapes People's Time Perspective and Support for Future-Oriented
    • Authors: Efrén O. Pérez; Margit Tavits
      Abstract: Can the way we speak affect the way we perceive time and think about politics' Languages vary by how much they require speakers to grammatically encode temporal differences. Futureless tongues (e.g., Estonian) do not oblige speakers to distinguish between the present and future tense, whereas futured tongues do (e.g., Russian). By grammatically conflating “today” and “tomorrow,” we hypothesize that speakers of futureless tongues will view the future as temporally closer to the present, causing them to discount the future less and support future-oriented policies more. Using an original survey experiment that randomly assigned the interview language to Estonian/Russian bilinguals, we find support for this proposition and document the absence of this language effect when a policy has no obvious time referent. We then replicate and extend our principal result through a cross-national analysis of survey data. Our results imply that language may have significant consequences for mass opinion.
      PubDate: 2017-01-24T16:45:24.932321-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12290
  • Differential Registration Bias in Voter File Data: A Sensitivity Analysis
    • Authors: Brendan Nyhan; Christopher Skovron, Rocío Titiunik
      Abstract: The widespread availability of voter files has improved the study of participation in American politics, but the lack of comprehensive data on nonregistrants creates difficult inferential issues. Most notably, observational studies that examine turnout rates among registrants often implicitly condition on registration, a posttreatment variable that can induce bias if the treatment of interest also affects the likelihood of registration. We introduce a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential bias induced by this problem, which we call differential registration bias. Our approach is most helpful for studies that estimate turnout among registrants using posttreatment registration data, but it is also valuable for studies that estimate turnout among the voting-eligible population using secondary sources. We illustrate our approach with two studies of voting eligibility effects on subsequent turnout among young voters. In both cases, eligibility appears to decrease turnout, but these effects are found to be highly sensitive to differential registration bias.
      PubDate: 2017-01-18T13:05:35.245841-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12288
  • Foreign Aid, Human Rights, and Democracy Promotion: Evidence from a
           Natural Experiment
    • Authors: Allison Carnegie; Nikolay Marinov
      Abstract: Does foreign aid improve human rights and democracy' We help arbitrate the debate over this question by leveraging a novel source of exogeneity: the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. We find that when a country's former colonizer holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union during the budget-making process, the country is allocated considerably more foreign aid than are countries whose former colonizer does not hold the presidency. Using instrumental variables estimation, we demonstrate that this aid has positive effects on human rights and democracy, although the effects are short-lived after the shock to aid dissipates. We adduce the timing of events, qualitative evidence, and theoretical insights to argue that the conditionality associated with an increased aid commitment is responsible for the positive effects in the domains of human rights and democracy.
      PubDate: 2017-01-18T13:05:26.578181-05:
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12289
  • Issue Information - Table of Contents
    • Pages: 509 - 512
      PubDate: 2017-07-03T14:07:58.39855-05:0
      DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12324
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