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Journal of Population Association of Iran
Number of Followers: 0  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 1735-000X - ISSN (Online) 2008-3742
Published by Population Association of Iran Homepage  [1 journal]
  • Simulation of Microdata of Labor Force Population of Iran with Synthetic
           Method

    • Abstract: One of the issues that statistical organizations face in disseminating micro data is confidentiality, which has made the data not easily available to the public.One way to solve this problem is Synthetic simulation. In this article we proposed a simulated method, which is called synthetic, generates data with high similarity to the original population while maintaining confidentiality. Thus, estimated parameters are more accurate. The labor force survey (LFS) is one of the important surveys of statistical center of Iran, which provides valuable information about Iran’s LFS situation, specially unemployment rate.In this article, an attempt is made to investigate the application of the synthetic method for simulation target population, using results of the Iran’s LFS, summer 2018, for whole 31 country provinces. Moreover, due to compare the accuracy of Horowitz-Thompson estimates from the simulated population and real population, we have used the asymptotic relative efficiency estimate, which shows that estimation from the synthetic population is more efficient than the estimation obtained from sample of original population. This paper also shows that the proposed method can be used to estimate the parameters of small areas and where the sample size is not sufficient
       
  • A Comparative Study of the Relationship between Social Capital and The
           Quality of Life among the Elderly Living at Homes and Sanatoriums in
           Tehran

    • Abstract: This study aims to investigate the relationship between the social capital and the quality of life among the elderly living at homes and those living at sanatoriums in Tehran. To achieve this aim, the survey method and the questionnaire tool were used to select and study 384 elderly people in Tehran. The findings show that the quality of life of the elderly living at homes is better than those staying in nursing institutions. There is also a significant association between the type of housing of the elderly and their social capital; those living at homes have higher social capital and a better quality of life than those living at sanatoriums. The results also show that there are significant associations between social capital and its constituent dimensions and the quality of life of the elderly. The results of multivariate analysis showed that after controlling for all  the variables, the type of housing still has a strong and significant impact on the quality of life of both elderly groups. However, this effect is stronger for the elderly living at homes than those staying in nursing homes. The variables of social participation, type of housing, social trust and social support have the greatest impact on the quality of life of the elderly, respectively
       
  • The Effect of Air Pollution on Morbidity in Ahvaz City in 2016

    • Abstract: One of the issues that have threatened human health during the past few decades is air pollution. Air pollution is one of the most important environmental challenges of metropolises in Iran, especially in Ahvaz city. The article aims to explore the effects of air pollution on morbidity using the secondary analysis of environmental and hospital data in Ahvaz city during 2016. The results showed higher values for indices of air pollution and morbidity in winter. Most hospital visits were due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, gastrointestinal, respiratory, skin, and infectious diseases, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis showed that 85 percent of health morbidity in Ahwaz city was explained by ten types of pollutants; PM2.5, PM10, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide pollutants had, respectively, the largest effects on morbidity. In addition, the results showed that age and gender were also strongly correlated with morbidity related to the air pollution. In conclusion, reducing morbidity requires policy-making and effective programs to reduce pollutants.
       
  • Dynamics of Population Age Structure and Mortality in Iran: Proposing a
           New Method for Adjusting Mortality Rates

    • Abstract: This study is an attempt to extend the application of the direct standardization method of mortality rates, so that in addition to standardizing crude death rates, age-specific rates are also standardized based of time. Using the Ministry of Health and Medical Education registry data, age-specific mortality rates are calculated based on the all and main causes of death in 2006 and 2015 at the national level. The findings of standardized age-specific rates for the year 2015 indicate that the effect of age structure changes on age-specific mortality rates for all and the main causes of death, especially in middle and older ages, has been largely increasing. The only exception in this case was deaths from unintentional accidents at ages 15 to 24, with the age structure changes displaying a declining effect. Given the continuing process of age structure change toward older ages, it is important to consider the potential impact of age structure on mortality in policy-making and its barriers to reducing mortality rates.
       
  • Exploring and Explaining the Transformed Spatial Patterns in Demographic
           Distribution of Iranian Regions

    • Abstract: The patterns of demographic distribution in different time periods are various manifestations of complex stages of socio-spatial transformations in regions of a territory. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial patterns resulting from population distribution in the provinces and counties of Iran between 2011 and 2016. This enables us to explore the socio-spatial consequences of these patterns in relation to transformation of urbanization processes and urbanization rates of regions. The present study has been compiled in two descriptive-analytical levels using population and housing census data and using combined techniques in analyzing findings based on Hot Spot and Cold Spot commands (based on Moran and Entropy coefficients) in GIS software. The research findings show that the counties located in the center of the country have high rates of in migration and those that located in the eastern and western regions of the country are in the periods of out migration. This indicates a reduction in the agricultural sector activities in fertile areas and a promotion in the employment patterns in the service and industry sectors in the center of the country. This trend has weakened both the cohesion and spatial balance in the territory. It is obvious that the pattern of population distribution in the regions of the country is contrary to the principles and optimal framework of territory spatial planning.
       
  • Spatial Analysis of the Effects of Unemployment and Unemployment of
           Educated People on Iran’s Political Geography

    • Abstract: Unemployment has a high potential for creating crises socially and politically, and thus it can call into question the state’s acceptability and legitimacy. The state’s response to unemployment is to delay the entrance of the new labor force into the job market by providing educational opportunities, which has led to an increase in unemployment among educated people in Iran. An spatial difference in unemployment and share of unemployed educated people in the country, a chronic spatial discrimination and domination of the core-periphery pattern and its adaption on the habitat of ethnic groups increase political concerns and the chance of rising unrests in Iran. This article uses descriptive-analytical and statistical methods with an emphasis on the discovery of spatial patterns of unemployment in general and unemployment of educated people in particular. The paper applies the methods of spatial analysis of Moran and Getis – Ord Gi * statistics to address the question on unemployment patterns in Iran and their effect on the country's political geography. The results show that the spatial patterns of unemployment are different from those related to the unemployment of educated people, and the sustainability of these patterns over time has strengthened the uneven processes of migration and development leading to the people's perceiving these as political. The continuation of this situation from a political geography perspective is a major challenge for the state and government.
       
  • The Effect of Migration on Quality of Life: A Case Study of Migrant
           Families from Kouhdasht County Living in Shahr-e-Ghods and their
           Non-migrant Counterparts in the County

    • Abstract: Migration from less developed to more developed areas is the general pattern of migration in developing countries. Such migration is mainly done to increase the quality of life as a response to inter-regional inequalities. This study tries to answer the question of whether the migration affects the quality of life. The target population includes the heads of migrant families from Kouhdasht county living in Shahr-e-Ghods and their counterparts in the the country. The required information was obtained through a questionnaire using the survey method. Using the random sampling method, 400 households (200 migrants and 200 non-migrants) were selected. In order to test the research hypotheses, statistical techniques of t-test, chi-square and multivariate regression were applied. The results show that migrant families, on the whole, have a relatively better quality of life than their non-migrant counterparts. Those with less education and unemployed individuals have reported a higher quality of life. Inequality in the social and economic amenities between the two regions and differences in the social and economic characteristics of migrants and non-migrants are the main explanatory factors.
       
  • Socio- Economic Security and Fertility Intention in Tehran City

    • Abstract: One of the main explanations for low fertility is risk aversion and uncertainty reduction. This study examines the effect of security on fertility intention in the framework of risk aversion and rational choice theory. To this end, a sub-sample of data from the “2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey” was used. The sample comprised of 417 ever married women aged 15-49 in Tehran city.  The results show that 53% of women intend to have more children and the average number of intended children is 2.07. Younger wives and husbands, women with a university degree, childless and single-­child women, and women with no pregnancy experience in the past two years are more likely than their counterparts to intend to have more children. Fertility intention is also related with economic security and concerns about social harms. The intention rises with decreasing concerns about social harm and increasing economic security. In the multivariate analysis, these two dimensions of security have little effect on fertility intention as compared to age and the number of children. However, given the intention of childless and single-child women to have more children as well as the existing ideal fertility of more than two children in the society, effective measures in reducing economic problems and social harms would facilitate childbearing conditions and narrow the gap between ideal and actual fertility in the country.
       
  • Individualism and Fertility Intentions

    • Abstract: To prevent the enduring below-replacement fertility and its consequences requires our understanding of the determinants of wanting no (more) children. Inspired by the Second Demographic Transition theory and Giddens’ concept of “pure relationship”, this study examined the link between individualism and fertility intentions. To do so, a self-administered survey was designed and administered on a sample of 375 prospective grooms and brides, residing in the city of Tehran (Iran) in 2016. Of the total respondents, 87% intended to have children after marriage, 39% reported no or one child as an ideal number of children to have, 54% intended to postpone childbearing by three or more years. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that individuals entering a marital relationship not on the basis of familial and social motivations, were less likely to intend to have children and more likely to report less than two children as an ideal number, and to postpone childbearing for three or more years. Moreover, individuals who selected their spouse independently and more freely were more likely to report zero or one child as an ideal number. A more equitable spousal relationship was associated with the intention to postpone childbearing for a longer period. The results suggest that individualism is an important basis of low fertility intentions among young couples, which needs to be considered seriously by policy makers when designing or tailoring the population policies addressing low fertility in the country.
       
  • One-Child Parenthood and its Determinants in Iran

    • Abstract: This research paper focuses on the key issue of one-child parenthood and examines its main patterns and determinants from a demographic perspective. The issue of one-child parenthood is identified as one of the most important components of the so-called process of “the transformation of demographic characteristics”. The literature review clearly indicates that while the general themes of fertility and childbearing have received a large body of studies in more recent years, it lacks substantially studies with specific focus on one-child parenthood. The present study not only contributes filling this research gap, but also is amongst the first studies focusing simultaneously on both sides of one-child parenthood: having one-child, wanting one-child. The results of this paper are based on a survey that includes 2557 married males and females aged 30 years and older residing in the selected rural and urban areas of Iran. The research results presented and discussed in this paper have shown that not only one-child parenthood is insignificantly accepted, but also the proportion of respondents ‘wanting one-child’ is almost half of the proportion of those ‘having one-child’. In sum, the conclusion of these research findings is that the one-child parenthood is overwhelmingly driven by socio-economic determinants rather than individual choices, suggesting the fundamental role of governmental policies targeted largely towards socio-economic and occupational provisions in order to enable individuals to go beyond the one-child parenthood.
       
  • Reflection of Kinship Relations and Authority of Members of Extended
           Families on the Activity and Spatial Structures of Mansions in Qajar
           Era (Case study: Amini Aristocratic in Qazvin)

    • Abstract: Extended family were formed by several related families living together in traditional Iranian houses. Authority, defined as the ability to influence others to fulfill the wishes of the decision-maker, affected the activity and spatial structures of the homes of these extended families. The aim of this research is to identify the activity and spatial structures of the aristocratic houses of the Qajar era, formed based on kinship relations and the authority of family members. Therefore, the main question of is what the effects of kinship and authority of family members are on the functional and spatial structures of traditional houses. The research method is descriptive-analytical, interpretive-historical and phenomenological; Thus, by descriptive-analytical method, kinship relations in mansions in Qajar era and the factors affecting the establishment of authority in the traditional Iranian family system have been studied. The examples of these patterns in the activity and spatial systems of traditional houses are explained. [In-depth interviews were conducted with members of the Amini family in Qazvin, which examined the effects of kinship and authority among members on Amini's activity and spatial systems using the phenomenological method. The results show that contrary to the common perception of the masculine system, women had considerable authority within the inner space; And the authority among women was hierarchical, upon which the spatial system of the house was organized. Also, the spacial system of the house provided various forms of privacy for the collective activities of relatives.
       
  • Study and Estimation of Population Fluctuations of Bronze Age Settlements
           of Varzaqan Based on Ethno-archaeological Studies

    • Abstract: The study of the population of ancient settlements provides the possibility of reconstructing the political, economic, social and cultural mechanisms of past societies and shows a new perspective on the life of previous societies. The present study was conducted on the county of Varzeqan, which has significant capacities in terms of ethno-archaeological research. However, so far no research has been conducted to estimate the population in this area. The present study uses a descriptive-analytical method and an ethno-archaeological approach to estimate the population by establishing a logical connection between the population attraction models of modern settlements of Varzeqan and the Bronze Age sites. That is, calculating the approximate population by conducting field studies, estimating the extent and the population of ​​villages and nomadic settlements, and comparing the extent of ​​Bronze Age sites. This way, a clear understanding of the demographic changes in Varzeqan County can be achieved. Accordingly, the population density of Varzeqan county is estimated to be 42 people per hectare and the population density of Bronze Age settlements is estimated as follows: in the early Bronze Age, with an area of more than 3.8 hectares, a population of about 160 people; in the middle Bronze Age with an area of 12.7 hectares, a population of about 533 people; and in the late Bronze Age with an area of 75.53 hectares, a population of 3172 people were present and settled in this region.
       
  • Investigating the immigrants' mental understanding of the attraction and
           repulsion of the destination and origin of migration

    • Abstract: Most of the researches that have studied the role of repulsions and attractions in the migration of individuals have dealt with the issue of migration from a positivist and quantitative approach and have paid less attention to the mental interpretations of immigrants in estimating the repulsion and attraction of origin and destination. Using a qualitative method, the present article seeks to examine the mental interpretations of immigrants from the attraction and repulsion of the origin and destination of migration. The results indicate that from the participants' point of view, economic, livelihood and job aspects are the main reason for migration from the margins to the center. However, after migrating and settling in the destination, various factors become repulsive or attractive for immigrants compared to the origin, which has little to do with the economic theories of migration and it can be explained more about the way of life in the community and society, or in other words, living in a small and micro-scale social environment and living in metropolises.
       
  • The Impact of Migration on Quality of Life (Case Study: Quhdashti Migrant
           Families Residing in Quds and Non-Migrant Peers Residing in Kuhdasht City)
           

    • Abstract: Introduction: Human future is depending on the understanding of structures affecting on quality of life. Disregarding the requirement of people and lack of their satisfaction from life in a society will lead to unexpected and unfortunate consequences. Therefore, considering demands of the people in a community and meeting their needs by governments and officials of the middle and lower levels of society are inevitable.Research method: research method of this study is survey method and questionnaire is used as a tool. Statistical population of this research is all Kuhdasht migrant families living in Tehran and non-immigrant families living in Kuhdasht. The sample of this study is head of the immigrant households living in Tehran and head of households living in Kuhdasht. Also, each of these heads is required to introduce their counterpart in Kuhdasht. Chi square, Regression and T-test are used for testing the hypotheses.Findings: The results show that immigrants have more satisfaction compare to non-immigrant in that area (due to having better economic condition, including both the subjective and the objective aspects of immigrant's wellbeing) .The higher employment of immigrants towards native and the native professional level, which are mostly engaged in agriculture, are influenced by lower economic-mental dimensions or, in other words, their job satisfaction. On the other hand, the unemployment rate of 33.6% in Kohdasht city in 2011 confirms the research results.Discussin: the final result of analysis of data and testing the hypothesis show that immigrant households have fairly favourable quality of life
       
  • Study and Estimation of Population Fluctuations of Bronze Age Settlements
           of Varzaqan Based on Ethno-archaeological Studies

    • Abstract: The present study was conducted on the town of Varzeqan, which has significant capacities in terms of ethno-archaeological and ethnographic research. For this purpose, the town of Varzeqan was studied from the perspective of ethno-archaeology and the effect of environmental factors. Therefore, from among the villages of this region, 29 villages, with settlements from the Bronze Age, were selected to estimate the population. The present study, using a descriptive-analytical method and s an ethno-archaeological approach, attempts to establish a connection between the population attraction models of today's settlements of Varzeqan and the early Bronze Age settlements to estimate the population. That is, by conducting field studies, estimating the extent of villages and nomadic settlements and their populations and comparing the extent of ancient sites of each period, their approximate population could be estimated and finally, the demographic changes of Varzeqan could be studied. The population pattern in the Bronze Age, like the current settlements, depended on factors such as access to water resources, favorable land, and height from sea level. In such a way that in the lowlands, we see a concentrated population and an agriculture-based livelihood pattern, and in the highlands we see a scattered population and a livestock-based
       
  • Exploring and explaining the transformed spatial patterns in the
           demographic distribution of the Iranian regions

    • Abstract: Regional spaces in specific time series experience temporary patterns of migration in terms of pull and push forces. Unbalanced patterns of demographic distribution in specific urban agglomerations lead to different spatial patterns from other regions. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial patterns resulting from population distribution in the provinces and cities of the country between 2011 and 2016. It is trying to explore the socio-spatial consequences of these patterns in relation to transition and transformation of urbanization processes and urbanization rates of regions. The present study is based on a systemic approach at two descriptive-analytical levels using population and housing census data and using combined techniques in analyzing findings based on Hot Spot and Cold Spot commands in GIS software. The research findings show that the cities located in the center of the country have high rates of migration and the cities located in the eastern and western regions of the country are in the first periods of crisis about negative migration. This indicates a reduction in activity in the agricultural sector in fertile areas and a promotion in the employment pattern in the services and industry sectors in the center of the country.
       
  • Simulation of Iran’s Labor Force Microdata Population of Iran with
           Synthetic Method

    • Abstract: One of the issues that statistical organizations face in disseminating micro data is confidentiality, which has made the data not easily available to the public. One way to solve this is simulation. In this article we proposed a simulated method, which is called synthetic, generates data with high similarity to the original population while maintaining confidentiality. Thus, estimated parameters are more accurate. The labor force survey (LFS) is one of the important surveys of statistical center of Iran, which provides valuable information about Iran’s LFS situation, specially unemployment rate. In this article, an attempt is made to investigate the application of the synthetic method for simulation target population, using results of the Iran’s LFS, summer 1397, for whole 31 country provinces. Moreover, due to compare the accuracy of Horowitz-Thompson estimates from the simulated population and real population, we have used the asymptotic relative efficiency estimate, which shows that estimation from the synthetic population is more efficient than the estimation obtained from sample of original population. This paper also shows that the proposed method can be used to estimate the parameters of small areas and where the sample size is not sufficient.
       
  • Household Dynamics in Iran: understanding of three decades changes in
           household structure

    • Abstract: The living arrangements and household structure in many societies are different from decades ago, and new forms of households have emerged. This study aimed to investigate changes in household structure and its determinants over the past three decades (1984-2018) in Iran. The Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data conducted by the Statistics Center of Iran were analyzed. The findings revealed that the percentage of various types of households (i.e one-person, single-parent and married couples without children) have increased. On the other hand, the number of extended and composite households have declined during the time. Although nuclear households have always been the overwhelming majority of households, their number has decreased in the last decade. The main reasons for this pattern are cultural and religious context and the long-term staying of children at parent’s home. It can be concluded that although the family and household structure have been relatively stable for decades, the process of change would be faster in the future because of cohort replacement. It means that older cohorts, who had more traditional family patterns, will be replaced by the younger cohorts with modern family patterns.
       
  • A Comparative Study of the Relationship between Social Capital and Quality
           of Life among the Elderly Resident of homes and sanatoriums in Tehran

    • Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between social capital and quality of life among elderly people living in homes and sanatoriums in Tehran. To reach the goal of the research, a survey method and a questionnaire were used, That according to the statistical population of the research, 384 elderly people living in homes and sanatoriums in Tehran Samples were selected and examined.The findings shows The quality of life of the elderly living in the home is better than the quality of life in the nursing home. It is also between the type of housing for the elderly and social capital Significant relationship was observed. That way Elderly people living in homes versus older people living in sanatoriums have higher social capital and have a better quality of life. Also between social capital and its constituent dimensions is a significant relationship with the quality of life of the elderly. So, Quality of life for elderly people living in homes and sanatoriums 53 and 30 percent, respectively, are affected by the social capital of the elderly. So The quality of life of elderly people living at home is most affected by their social capital. Also beta coefficients of social capital dimensions show Among the dimensions of social capital, Social participation variable with beta coefficient (0.595) Among the elderly living in homes and with beta coefficient (0/490) Among the elderly living in sanatoriums, It had the greatest impact on the quality of life of the elderly.
       
  • The Effect of Air Pollution on Morbidity in Ahvaz City in 2016

    • Abstract: One of the issues that have threatened human health is air pollution. Air pollution is one of the most important environmental challenges of metropolises in Iran, especially in Ahvaz city. The article aims to explore the effects of air pollution on morbidity using the secondary analysis of environmental and hospital data in Ahvaz city, during 2016. The results showed that indices of air pollution and morbidity were higher in winter. Most hospital visits were due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, gastrointestinal, respiratory, skin, and infectious diseases, respectively. The results of multivariate showed that 85 percent of health morbidity in Ahwaz city was explained by ten types of pollutants; PM2.5, PM10, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide pollutants had the most effects on morbidity. AQI also indicates a positive association with morbidity. In addition, the results showed that age and gender were also strongly correlated with health morbidity. In conclusion, reducing morbidity requires policy-making and effective programs to reduce pollutants.
       
  • Dynamics of Age Structure of Population and Mortality in Iran: Proposing a
           New Method for Adjusting Mortality Rates

    • Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of age structure changes on mortality rates in terms of the main causes of death in Iran in recent decades. In the field of methodology, this study is an attempt to extend the application of the standardization method of mortality rates, so that in addition to standardizing crude death rates, age-specific rates are also standardized based of time that it is referred as age-specific rate period in demographic studies. Age-specific mortality rates are calculated based on the total of causes and main causes of death in the country in 2006 and 2015 based on the Ministry of Health and Medical Education registry data. Findings based on standardized age-specific rates for the year 2015 indicate that the effect of age structure changes on age-specific mortality rates for all causes of death and the main causes of death, especially in middle-aged and older ages, has been largely increasing. . The only exception in this case was deaths from unintentional accidents in the ages of 15 to 24 years, that age structure changing had a declining effect on these rates in 2015. Given the continuing process of age structure changing toward older age, it is important to consider the potential impact of age structure on mortality in policy-making and consider its barriers to reducing mortality rates.
       
  • Spatial Analysis of the Impacts of Unemployment and Graduates'
           Unemployment on Iranian Political Geography

    • Abstract: In economic view, unemployment meaning inappropriate use of factors of production and in social and political sight has a high capacity of making problems and crises. Unemployment can undermine social trust in the government and its political credibility is called into question. On one hand recessions and approximately near-zero industry growth rate intensify unemployment, On the other hand, long term spatial and geographical discrimination makes the spatial difference between the unemployment rate and share of educated unemployment in the country. Core-periphery pattern dominance and its accordance on the ethnic groups' habitat, increase political concern and probability of rising unrest in Iran. This paper is done by the descriptive-analytical method and has detected unemployment and educated unemployment patterns by spatial analysis methods (Moran I and Getis–Ord Gi*), as well as is going to answer this questions: How are the spatial patterns of unemployment in Iran and what are the effects of these spatial patterns on Iran's political Geography' The consequence of this article shed a light on this fact that unemployment pattern is totally different from educated unemployment's pattern. So different policymaking is needed. Also, the stability of this pattern intensifies the migration and inharmonious development process and politicize people's perceptions of it. Continuity of this situation is a great challenge for Sovereignty and statesmen.
       
  • Socio- Economic Security and Fertility Intention in Tehran

    • Abstract: One of the key explanations for low fertility is risk aversion and uncertainty reduction. The existence of risks in society and the concerns that individuals have of the economic and social conditions of society, the uncertainties of the labor market and the future situation, affect fertility decisions and behaviors. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of security on the Fertility intention in context of low fertility of Tehran. This study uses data from fertility transition survey in Iran in 2018. The results show that 53% of women intend to have more children and the average number of intended children is 2.07. Based on the results of multivariable analysis of women's fertility in Tehran, in addition to social demographic characteristics, it affects both objective and subjective insecurity. In the objective dimension of economic insecurity and in the mental dimension, concern about social harm, including concern about the prevalence of youth addiction, the prevalence of high-risk sexual behaviors, and divorce in society has a decreasing effect on fertility intention. Childlessness and single-parenthood are a strong factor for the child's intention and, even in the presence of age and variables related to insecurity, is significant. In total, this model can explain about 53% of the variance of the fertility intention in Tehran.
       
  • Individualism and Fertility Intentions

    • Abstract: To prevent the enduring below-replacement fertility and its consequences requires our understanding of the determinants of wanting no (more) children. Inspired by the Second Demographic Transition theory and Giddens’ concept of “pure relationship”, this study examined the link between individualism and fertility intentions. To do so, a self-administered survey was designed and administered on a sample of 375 prospective grooms and brides, residing in the city of Tehran (Iran) in 2016. Of the total respondents, 87% intended to have children after marriage, 39% reported no or one child as an ideal number of children to have, 54% intended to postpone childbearing by three or more years. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that individuals entering a marital relationship not on the basis of familial and social motivations, were less likely to intend to have children and more likely to report less than two children as an ideal number, and to postpone childbearing for three or more years. Moreover, individuals who selected their spouse independently and more freely were more likely to report zero or one child as an ideal number. A more equitable spousal relationship was associated with the intention to postpone childbearing for a longer period.
       
  • The evolutionary path of demography from the beginning to the arrival of
           agent-based models: A review

    • Abstract: The application of agent-based modeling in analysing population issues has attracted the attention of demographers, and the status of demography in deep understanding of population trends has been improved. The aim of this paper is to review the evolutionary path of demography from the beginning to the emergence and usage of agent-based modeling in population studies. The literature review revealed the inabilityof demographic paradimes in communicating between micro and macro levels as one of the main limitations in demographic analyses. Today, due to the development of mathematics and the production of powerful software and processors, agent-based modeling is of particular importance among demographers. Policy making based on agent-based modeling as an efficient solution with the ability to analyze the relationship between the micro and macro level increases the likelihood of achieving the goals pursued by macro policies. In this article, by reviewing the evolution of different paradigms and expressing the need to use the agent-based modeling approach in the process of demographic analysis, the position of agent-based modeling with its strengths and weaknesses in comparison with other paradigms is reviewed and introduced. Finally, some suggestions for using agent-based modeling in the analysis of Iran's demographic issues are presented.
       
  • Covid-19 and its Challenges for Demographic Transitions: The Age of
           Updating Emerging Pandemics'

    • Abstract: The advent of Covid-19 and its epidemic changed the epidemiological pattern and current mortality of the world today. The subject of this research is the challenges that Covid-19 poses to theories of demographic transitions (demographic transitions, epidemiological transitions, and health transitions). The most important criticism that can be made of these three transitions according to Covid-19 is that these theories ignore or at least underestimate the importance of infectious-parasitic diseases, especially in the post-mortem transition period. These diseases are becoming more and more widespread and global, interacting with chronic diseases and the aging structure of populations, adapting to the characteristics of the new world, globalization and modernization, and their conditions for easier spread, Enjoy themselves faster and more widely; In this respect, these emerging infectious and parasitic diseases of the new age are more civilized and up-to-date than their counterparts in the past. It can be said that with the emergence of the Covid-19 epidemic, there is a new trend of mortality due to this global epidemic and important demographic, economic, social, cultural and behavioral effects that make it one of the other stages of the epidemiological transition of human history.
       
  • The study of Demographic, Economic and Social factors affecting on head of
           household poverty in Urban Area, 2016

    • Abstract: the determinants of poverty are studied with regard to the demographic,economic and social characteristics of the head of households. The sample used included 66038 people and a total of 18809 urban households from the total extractive sample of the country, which was selected in 1395 by the Statistical Center of Iran .We consider two levels of welfare, that examines the probability of exiting poverty. Based on previous studies, the sample was divided into three groups: low, moderate, and high income groups, .For comparison, the poverty line estimated by Afghah and Mansouri in 2016 has been used f. The average poverty line becomes equal to 264 million rials, and households whose annual income is less than this amount are considered poor. By applying this poverty line there are 3608 non-poor households and 15201 poor households in the sample.To estimate this model, Maximum Likelihood Method has been used. Based on the results of the model, one of the effective factor for getting out household from poverty is the ratio of the number of people with income in the household, as well as the absolute number of people with income in the household.
       
 
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