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Journal Cover Foreign Affairs
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  Free journal Free journal
   ISSN (Online) 0015-7120
   Published by Council on Foreign Relations, Inc Homepage  [1 journal]
  • Presidential Extra
    • Authors: Rebecca Chao
      Abstract: Presidential ExtraEssays for the PresidencyRebooting Republican Foreign PolicyGetting the GOP's Groove BackThe Clinton LegacyRenewing American LeadershipRising to a New Generation of Global ChallengesReengaging With the WorldToward a Realistic PeaceSecurity and Opportunity for the Twenty-first CenturyAn Enduring Peace Built on FreedomA New RealismAmerica's Priorities in the War on TerrorBridges, Bombs, or Bluster?A Strategy of PartnershipsForeign Policy for a Democratic PresidentCampaign 2000: Promoting the National InterestCampaign 2000: A Republican Foreign PolicyCampaign 2000: New World, New Deal: A Democratic Approach to GlobalizationA Republican Looks at Foreign PolicyA Democrat Looks at Foreign PolicyAmerica's First Post-Cold War PresidentA Republican Looks at Foreign PolicyA Democrat Looks at Foreign PolicyThe 1988 Election: U.S. Foreign Policy at a WatershedAmerican Foreign Policy: The Bush AgendaThe 1988 ElectionForeign Policy and the American CharacterAfter the Election: Foreign Policy Under Reagan IIThe First Term: From Carter to ReaganThe First Term: Four More Years: Diplomacy Restored?The First Term: The Reagan Road to DétenteBeyond Détente: Toward International Economic SecurityFor a New Policy BalanceThe End of Either/OrAsia After Viet NamPolicy and the PeopleThe Presidency and the PeaceTwo Years of the Peace CorpsU.S. Policy in Latin AmericaA Democrat Looks at Foreign PolicyPutting First Things FirstThe Senate in Foreign PolicyForeign Policy in Presidential CampaignsKorea in PerspectiveNovember 1952: Imperatives of Foreign PolicyThe Challenge to AmericansThe Foreign Policy of the American Communist PartyThe Promise of Human RightsOur Sovereignty: Shall We Use It?European Legislation for Industrial PeaceLabor Under the NazisThe Permanent Bases of American Foreign PolicyPolitical Factors in American Foreign PolicySome Foreign Problems of the Next AdministrationOur Foreign PolicyOur Foreign PolicyForeign AffairsForeign Relations of the United States, 1921-1924American Foreign Policy: a Democratic ViewAmerican Foreign Policy: a Republican ViewAmerican Foreign Policy: a Progressive ViewAfter the Election1024 x 76832.0.0PortraitSeptember 15, 2015
      PubDate: Tue, 15 Sep 2015 16:22:30 +000
  • The Clash of Civilizations? The Debate
    • Authors: Anna Kordunsky
      Abstract: Buy links
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 18:26:19 +000
  • The New Arab Revolt
    • Authors: Anna Kordunsky
      Abstract: Buy links
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 17:41:39 +000
  • Best International Relations Books of 2011
    • Authors: Kathryn Allawala
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 17:39:36 +000
  • The U.S. vs. al Qaeda
    • Authors: Anna Kordunsky
      Abstract: Buy links
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 17:12:39 +000
  • Best International Relations Books of 2012
    • Authors: Kathryn Allawala
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 17:04:23 +000
  • The Changing Face of Conflict
    • Authors: Andrew Reisman
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 16:53:05 +000
  • The Clash of Ideas
    • Authors: Anna Kordunsky
      Abstract: Buy links
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 16:52:10 +000
  • Turning Point: Energy’s New World
    • Authors: test admin
      Abstract: Oil and the New Reality of Supply and Demandby Daniel Yergin, James Burkhard, and Bhushan BahreeDaniel Yergin is Vice Chairman, IHS and author of The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. James Burkhard is Vice President and Bhushan Bahree is Senior Director at IHS.Over recent years, the price of oil has stayed near $100 a barrel. That price reflected a balance between a massive surge of new supply from North America and disruptions and geopolitical tensions that curbed supply elsewhere. That balance was a precarious one, and in recent months, it has toppled—and dramatically so. The oil price is now recalibrating to the new reality of supply and demand. But in a break with decades of prior practice, this is occurring without a formal agreement among OPEC members to adjust supply. At the OPEC meeting of last November, the exporting countries decided not to cut production. This historic pivot removed the price support that had been fundamental to the global oil market for several decades. When OPEC handed over “responsibility” to the market, the price decline turned into a rout.[image:2:offset]The low oil price will have a significant impact on the oil and natural gas industry, consumers, the world economy, and the position of individual countries. World economic growth will, on balance, get a sizeable boost. But oil and gas companies, the service companies, and oil exporting nations will all feel the pain. Weakening fundamentals are at the root of falling oil prices. Global supply growth was running ahead of demand growth. Something had to give. We expect that lower prices will lead to only modest increases in demand due to structural changes in the global market and pricing policies in many countries. Growth in world oil demand is unlikely on its own to accelerate sharply enough over the next few years to reduce the supply overhang. Importantly, the growth in Chinese oil consumption has slowed with the slowing of China’s economy. But we project that global GDP will grow steadily, though not spectacularly, and that will lead growth in world oil demand to increase from 0.9 million barrels per day (mdb) in 2014 to 1.3 mbd in 2016.On the supply side, OPEC has said it will maintain groupwide crude production at 30 mbd, despite low prices. Indeed, we anticipate that OPEC crude production will actually rise next year. Given that, unless there are new supply disruptions—always a possibility—non-OPEC producers will be the ones to bring market fundamentals back into equilibrium. While a good part of the short-term adjustment will fall on North American supply, the effects will be felt around the world.Lower prices will force many operators to cut their spending on exploration and development, which will lead, over time, to reductions in output. Production of U.S. tight oil—that is, oil produced by hydraulic fracturing—will be affected more by lower prices than conventional production. The United States has emerged—inadvertently—as the world’s new swing producer.U.S. oil output at the start of 2015 was more than 1 mbd higher than one year ago, which represents sensational growth. And growth will continue, due to commitments already in place. But by late 2015 and early 2016, reduced investment in exploration and development will begin to have an impact on U.S. production. Companies are already scaling back activities to match their reduced cash flow; and highly leveraged firms will face major challenges. According to IHS’s Performance Evaluator, U.S. output will continue to grow until around the middle of this year, at which point output will flatten out. This development will rebalance world oil supply and demand and provide a foundation for a potential oil price recovery. While Canada will add about 450,000 barrels of new oil sands supply in 2015 and 2016, thereafter we expect production growth there to slow as well. And outside North America, cancellations and postponement of projects to maintain or enhance production will reduce non-OPEC supply over time. In all, non-OPEC production, which grew by nearly 2 mbd in 2014, is expected to grow by only 1 mbd in 2015. After being in shock for a few weeks, the global oil industry started to redo its budgets to reflect the new, more uncertain pricing environment. Companies are cutting budgets by 15 to 30 percent—or more. Service companies will be under great pressure to reduce their costs. Companies will reevaluate new projects, and many will be delayed or postponed. The lower prices for oil-indexed liquefied natural gas (LNG) will pose challenges for new LNG projects.The new pricing environment will be especially difficult for countries seeking investment to develop oil and gas resources. It’s no longer a seller’s market for nations with oil resources. If countries want to attract investment, they will have to revise their fiscal regimes and local content regulations to be more competitive. And that will require recalibration of expectations, not only for governments but for citizens as well. [image:9:inline]What is Happening to China’s Demand for Energy?by Xizhou ZhouXizhou Zhou is Senior Director and Head of China Energy at IHS and a lead author of IHS’s China Energy Watch.With the “new normal” of slower economic expansion, energy consumption in China is entering a period of decelerating growth. This is after a decade of phenomenal increase. “Go to China” was the mantra for many energy companies around the world as China furiously built new supply projects and looked for new resources.Many players are asking a very different question today: “What happened to China’s insatiable appetite?” With oil demand growing at...
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 15:50:03 +000
  • Iran and the Bomb
    • Authors: Anna Kordunsky
      Abstract: Buy links
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Apr 2015 15:47:35 +000
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