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Natural Hazards
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.767
Citation Impact (citeScore): 2
Number of Followers: 252  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2351 journals]
  • Modelling effects of an asphalt road at a dike crest on dike cover erosion
           onset during wave overtopping
    • Authors: A. Bomers; J. P. Aguilar Lopez; J. J. Warmink; S. J. M. H. Hulscher
      Pages: 1 - 30
      Abstract: Structures integrated in a grass-covered dike may increase erosion development. Currently, safety assessment methods for flood defences are only applicable for a conventional grass-covered dike and the effects of structures on dike cover erosion are poorly understood. Since many dikes have a road on top, it is important to study the effect of such a road structure on erosion onset during wave overtopping. To investigate this effect, a coupled hydrodynamic–erosion model was developed. The erosion onset caused by overtopping waves was predicted by combining the time-varying bed shear stresses from the hydrodynamic model with a depth-dependent erosion model. The results show that roads on top of a dike increase the erosion of the neighbouring grass cover. This increase in erosion may have a negative impact on dike stability. Therefore, we recommend considering effects of constructions on top of dike profiles during safety assessments. Explicitly, consideration of the roughness transitions in the safety assessments of dikes is recommended.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3287-y
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Natural hazards in Goma and the surrounding villages, East African Rift
    • Authors: Charles M. Balagizi; Antoine Kies; Marcellin M. Kasereka; Dario Tedesco; Mathieu M. Yalire; Wendy A. McCausland
      Pages: 31 - 66
      Abstract: The city of Goma and its surrounding villages (Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC) are among the world’s most densely populated regions strongly affected by volcanic hazards. In 2002, Nyiragongo volcano erupted destroying 10–15% of Goma and forced a mass evacuation of the population. Hence, the ~ 1.5 million inhabitants of Goma and Gisenyi (Rwanda) continue to live with the threat of new lava flows and other eruptive hazards from this volcano. The current network of fractures extends from Nyiragongo summit to Goma and continues beneath Lake Kivu, which gives rise to the fear that an eruption could even produce an active vent within the center of Goma or within the lake. A sub-lacustrine volcanic eruption with vents in the floor of the main basin and/or Kabuno Bay of Lake Kivu could potentially release about 300 km3 of carbon dioxide (CO2) and 60 km3 of methane (CH4) dissolved in its deep waters that would be catastrophic to populations (~ 2.5 million people) along the lake shores. For the time being, ongoing hazards related to Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes silently kill people and animals, slowly destroy the environment, and seriously harm the health of the population. They include mazuku (CO2-rich locations where people often die of asphyxiation), the highly fluoridated surface and ground waters, and other locally neglected hazards. The volcanic gas plume causes poor air quality and acid rain, which is commonly used for drinking water. Given the large number of people at risk and the continued movement of people to Goma and the surrounding villages, there is an urgent need for a thorough natural hazards assessment in the region. This paper presents a general view of natural hazards in the region around Goma based on field investigations, CO2 measurements in mazuku, and chemistry data for Lake Kivu, rivers and rainwater. The field investigations and the datasets are used in conjunction with extremely rich-historical (1897–2000) and recently published information about Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes and Lake Kivu. We also present maps of mazuku and fractures in Goma, describe the volcanic eruption history with hazard assessment and mitigation implications, and consider social realities useful for an integrated risk management strategy.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3288-x
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Design rainfall estimation: comparison between GEV and LP3 distributions
           and at-site and regional estimates
    • Authors: Evan Hajani; Ataur Rahman
      Pages: 67 - 88
      Abstract: Design rainfall, often known as intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) data, is an important input in rainfall runoff modelling exercise. IFD data are derived by fitting a probability distribution to observed rainfall data. Although there are many researches on IFD curves in the literature, there is a lack of systematic comparison among the IFD curves obtained by different distributions and methods. This study compares the latest IFD curves in Australia, published in 2013, as a part of the new Australian rainfall and runoff (ARR) with the at-site IFD curves to examine the expected degree of variation between the at-site and regional IFD data. Ten pluviography stations from eastern New South Wales (NSW) are selected for this study. The IFD curves generated by the two most commonly adopted probability distributions, generalised extreme value (GEV) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3) distributions are also compared. Empirical and polynomial regression methods in smoothing the IFD curves are compared. Based on the three goodness-of-fit tests, it has been found that both GEV and LP3 distributions fit the annual maximum rainfall data (at 1% significance level) for the ten selected stations. The developed IFD curves based on the second-degree polynomial present better fitting than the empirical method. It has been found that the ARR87 and ARR13 IFD curves are generally higher than the at-site IFD curves derived here. The median difference between the at-site and regional ARR-recommended IFD curves is in the range of 13–19%. It is expected that the outcomes of this research will provide better guidance in selecting the correct IFD data for a given application in NSW. The methodology developed here can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3289-9
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Observed changes in hydrological extremes and flood disaster in Yangtze
           River Basin: spatial–temporal variability and climate change impacts
    • Authors: Jian Fang; Feng Kong; Jiayi Fang; Lin Zhao
      Pages: 89 - 107
      Abstract: The variation and tendency of hydrological extremes in the context of climate change have received extensive concern. However, there is still no clear understanding toward the evolution of hydrological extremes, and the impacts of climate change on flood disaster and risk have been explored very poorly. This study investigated the trends in flood-related variables of extreme precipitation, extreme river flow (1955–2012), and flood damages (1990–2014) in Yangtze River Basin. To further explore the impacts of climate change, the relations of changes in extreme river flow and precipitation were evaluated using wavelet transform analysis, and the trends in normalized flood damages were re-examined with the elimination of changes in exposure. The results showed that flood damages decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches, while extreme precipitation and river flow still had increasing trends, indicating the potential of increasing flood risk. For upper basin, extreme precipitation increased significantly in the west and northeast part, while significant decreasing trends can also be found in the central part. The wavelet analysis revealed significant covarying relations for extreme discharge and precipitation, demonstrating the substantial influence of climate variability on extreme river flow. Meanwhile, the normalized flood damages showed increasing trend in Sichuan province, indicating significant climate change impacts on flood disaster. This study suggests the need for more effective measures to mitigate flood risk and better adaptation for climate change in Yangtze River Basin, especially in the middle and lower basin and northeast of the upper basin.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3290-3
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Unpacking local impacts of climate change: learning with a coastal
           community in Central Vietnam
    • Authors: Huu Trung Nguyen
      Pages: 125 - 146
      Abstract: Large-scale climate models (LCM) have been used to understand climate change and its effects, but there remains a concern about their inability fully to reflect local contexts and about a high degree of their uncertainty. Through a case study that involved residents of a coastal community in Central Vietnam, this paper presents how local people perceive climate change and characterize climate impacts on their life. Findings of the study show that local people perceive a variety of important manifestations of climate change, especially temperature, rainfall, sea level rise and monsoons, although they have limited ideas about future climate change. In addition, local people unpack the complexity of climate impacts through interactions among climatic events, livelihoods and the five capitals (physical, natural, financial, human and social resources). Findings of the research suggest that it will be necessary to move away from viewing coastal villages in Vietnam as homogenous units with shared climate experiences, and to combine both local experience and scientific evidence based on LCMs to promote the synergies and address the limitations of the two sources of information for climate interventions at the local level.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3292-1
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Flood hazards: household vulnerability and resilience in disaster-prone
           districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan
    • Authors: Ashfaq Ahmad Shah; Jingzhong Ye; Muhammad Abid; Jahangir Khan; Syed Muhammad Amir
      Pages: 147 - 165
      Abstract: Pakistan is alarmingly exposed and vulnerable to flood disasters as a result of rapid urbanization that has not taken into account the threats posed by climate change. The devastating impacts of floods and other natural disasters put extra pressure on the country’s budget and has driven the country’s leadership to adopt a proactive approach instead of traditional, aid-based, approach, one that encourages the inclusion of disaster risk reduction measures within local disaster management policies. This research elaborates household vulnerability and resilience to flood disaster within two districts within Pakistan. It uses a dataset of 600 households collected through face-to-face interviews from two districts within the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that were severely affected by the 2010 flood and data from the Directorate of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Disaster Management Authority. In a second step, we assigned weights to the selected variables for vulnerability (exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacity) and resilience (with social, physical, economic, and institutional components) and used a subjective method (based on expert judgment) to weight these. The survey findings revealed that both study areas were highly vulnerable and had low resilience to flood disasters. The study findings indicated that community households in the flood-prone areas of Nowshera district were more vulnerable and less resilient than those in Charsadda, with a higher composite vulnerability index scoring and a lower composite resilience index score. This study shows that provincial and local disaster management authorities can play a vital role in reducing vulnerability and that more efforts are required to strengthen social, physical, economic, and institutional resilience through capacity-building training, preparedness, and awareness building about preventing and mitigating flood damage.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3293-0
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Effects of private car ownership, economic growth and medical services on
           healthcare expenditure in China: a dynamic panel data analysis
    • Authors: Wei-Hua Qu; Guo-Hua Qu; Xin-Dong Zhang; Zhi-Jun Yan
      Pages: 167 - 188
      Abstract: Vehicle exhaust emissions are identified as one of the main determinants of air pollution and play an important role in the environmental sustainable improvement of countries. This research utilizes a panel data of 30 Chinese provinces during the period between 1997 and 2012 to examine the existence of inverted U-shaped relationship between public healthcare expenditure per capita and private car ownership across geographical regions (east, middle and west China) employing panel generalized method of moments estimates for robust estimates. The findings also show the income per capita significantly and positively impacts on health expenditure per capita at the national level. The other results indicate that sulfur dioxide emissions and people over age 65 significantly increase healthcare expenditure per capita except the western region; soot emissions have a significantly positive impact on public health expenditure per capita for only the whole country and the western region; the number of doctors per capita may decrease public health expenditure per capita caused by environmental pollution. These results have important policy implications for promotion of new energy vehicles and for improving air quality and medical and health services.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3294-z
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Tropical storm Chedza and associated floods over south-eastern Africa
    • Authors: Ramontsheng S. Rapolaki; Chris J. C. Reason
      Pages: 189 - 217
      Abstract: Widespread flooding over parts of Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar occurred in January 2015. An impact assessment by the World Bank indicated huge damage to property, infrastructure, and agriculture over several regions in south-eastern Africa as well as significant loss of life. The flooding was associated with tropical storm Chedza that developed in the Mozambique Channel on 11 January 2015. This study investigates the atmospheric circulation and potential mechanisms responsible for the heavy rainfall event that occurred between 11 and 17 January over Mozambique and Malawi using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the Global Forecast System atmospheric reanalysis, satellite-derived rainfall and wind data, and station rainfall data. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall estimates and rainfall station data indicated that southern Malawi and northern Mozambique experienced the majority of rainfall during the early stages of tropical storm Chedza, while Madagascar experienced heavy falls when tropical storm Chedza tracked over the island on 17 January 2015. Furthermore, an analysis of the station data revealed that the heavy rainfall over Mozambique occurred between 11 and 13 January with some stations recording about 80% of their total January 2015 rainfall as resulting from this event. The WRF simulation of the event indicated a low-level easterly to south-easterly onshore flow over southern Mozambique that interacted with a north-westerly monsoonal flow along the northern flanks (periphery) of the storm in the northern Mozambique Channel that led to moisture flux convergence in the regions of heavy rainfall. Furthermore, moisture from the south-west Indian Ocean was advected into the region during the heavy rainfall. This moisture convergence along with strong uplift and convective instability over the region acted together to create favourable conditions for the development of tropical storm Chedza and the associated heavy rainfall.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3295-y
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Shannon entropy maximization supplemented by neurocomputing to study the
           consequences of a severe weather phenomenon on some surface parameters
    • Authors: Surajit Chattopadhyay; Goutami Chattopadhyay; Subrata Kumar Midya
      Pages: 237 - 247
      Abstract: An information theoretic approach based on Shannon entropy is adopted in this study to discern the influence of pre-monsoon thunderstorm on some surface parameters. A few parameters associated with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over a part of east and northeast India are considered. Maximization of Shannon entropy is employed to test the relative contributions of these parameters in creating this weather phenomenon. It follows as a consequence of this information theoretic approach that surface temperature is the most important parameter among those considered. Finally, artificial neural network in the form of multilayer perceptron with backpropagation learning is attempted to develop predictive model for surface temperature.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3298-8
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Population and building vulnerability assessment by possible worst-case
           tsunami scenarios in Salinas, Ecuador
    • Authors: Teresa Vera San Martín; Gary Rodriguez Rosado; Patricia Arreaga Vargas; Leonardo Gutierrez
      Pages: 275 - 297
      Abstract: Ecuador has been prone to experience earthquakes and tsunamis linked to events in the subduction zone between the Nazca and the South American plates. The main objective of this investigation was to assess the population and buildings vulnerability by a possible worst-case Tsunami scenario in the highly touristic city of Salinas—Ecuador. The vulnerability of buildings was investigated by Fragility Functions (FFs) and Vulnerability Index, while the population vulnerability was assessed by FFs. The population of permanent residents (42,860 inhabitants) and tourists (highly variable, but reaching up to 40,163 tourists/day and 4790 tourists/night) were separately studied during nine public holydays/long weekends (i.e., when the population density reaches critical levels), and during daytime/nighttime. In the selected scenario (i.e., hypocenter: 100 km southwest of Salinas, ocean depth: 2 km, and 8.0 moment magnitude), the flood area covered 43% of Salinas county and 43–85% of urban parishes. The most populated areas were exposed to inundation. According to FFs analysis, between 16,380 and 45,410 people would be affected by a tsunamigenic wave during the day and between 7386 and 10,037 during the night of Christmas and Declaration of Independence holydays, respectively. Elderly, handicapped, underage, and tourist were the most vulnerable groups. A total of 2227 structures would be affected by tsunamigenic wave (FFs), representing 40% of exposed structures to the flood area (i.e., 2.03–6.63 m maximum flood depths). A total of 3160 buildings showed Vulnerability Indexes ranging from medium to high. Results from this study would assist in the identification of hazard areas, safe zones, shelter buildings, evacuation routes/times in this densely populated touristic city.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3300-5
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Assessment of the impact of interdependencies on the resilience of
           networked critical infrastructure systems
    • Authors: Quan Mao; Nan Li
      Pages: 315 - 337
      Abstract: Critical infrastructure systems (CISs) have a fundamental role in delivering commodities that are essential to various functions in urban systems. The resilience of CISs concerns the robustness of system performance against extreme events, the ineffectiveness of disturbance propagation, and the efficiency of post-disaster system performance restoration. The resilience of CISs is significantly impacted by the interconnectivity among CISs and the interactions among different systems. Although this impact has been recognized by numerous studies, it has rarely been comparatively assessed using different metrics that reflect the different perspectives of various stakeholders. Moreover, the existing literature on the impact of interdependencies in the context of CIS disaster risk reduction has primarily focused on the resistance stage rather than the entire life cycle of disaster events. To address these gaps, this study assesses this impact at different stages of the life cycle of disturbance events, analyzes the effect of interdependencies on determining the total resilience of CISs, and discusses the implications of the results in the context of resilience enhancement of CISs in practice. To achieve this objective, this study models interconnected CISs using four different network-based approaches, simulates the disturbance propagation process and system restoration process of CISs in three different scenarios, and measures the resilience of disturbed CISs with three different resilience metrics. A case study of three CISs in a middle-sized city in Eastern China was conducted. The CISs included an electric power system, a telecommunication system, and a water supply system. The results revealed that the vulnerability of CISs to extreme events would be significantly underestimated if interdependencies of the CISs were not considered, which would cause a misleading estimation of the total resilience of the CISs. The findings also suggested the importance of considering the interdependencies of CISs in the sequencing of restoration tasks to optimize the efficiency of post-disaster restoration tasks.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3302-3
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Two precautions of entropy-weighting model in drought-risk assessment
    • Authors: Fanghui Yi; Chen Li; Yan Feng
      Pages: 339 - 347
      Abstract: Two disadvantages of the entropy-weighting model (EWM) in drought-risk assessment are presented through two typical examples in this paper. (1) For distortion in the normalization process, entropy defined by EWM cannot represent the indicator’s dipartite degree correctly when too many zero values exist in the observation data. (2) Given that EWM neglects the indicator’s practical significance in drought-risk assessment, the indicator’s dipartite degree cannot correctly represent its importance when observation data are concentrated in the worst category. These two problems lead to unjustified drought-risk assessment results. Therefore, the features of observation data should be checked before weighting. If the indicator’s observation values are concentrated in the worst domain or numerous zero values exist, then EWM should be applied cautiously.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3303-2
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Remote sensing and in situ-based assessment of rapidly growing South
           Lhonak glacial lake in eastern Himalaya, India
    • Authors: R. K. Sharma; Pranay Pradhan; N. P. Sharma; D. G. Shrestha
      Pages: 393 - 409
      Abstract: Melting glaciers are mostly associated with formation of proglacial lakes and the expansion of existing glacial lakes in Himalayan region. These expanding glacial lakes can induce the risk of glacial outburst floods that pose a great potential threat to natural resources and human lives. In Sikkim Himalaya, South Lhonak lake (SLL) (5200 masl) is rapidly expanding over the few decades due to the ongoing glacier melting. We recorded that the lake size increased from 0.20 ± 0.020 to 1.31 ± 0.001 km2 with the length change of 1.6 km during the period from 1976 to 2016. The average rate of expansion was recorded of 0.027 km2 per year; however, it increased drastically since 2000. The in situ-based bathymetric study of SLL showed that the storage volume was 65.81 ± 2.5 million m3 and maximum and average depths were 131 ± 2.5 and 67.05 ± 2.5 m, respectively. We observed that the substantial calving of ice bodies during the melting seasons and partly from the melting of North Lhonak glacier and flow of the Lhonak lake have contributed in expansion of SLL. We have also proposed an empirical equation of volume–area relationship to calculate the storage capacity of similar moraine-dammed glacial lakes in the Himalaya. In addition, we have suggested effective precautionary and mitigation measures to minimize the risk of GLOFs in future. The present study provides vital inputs for hydrodynamic modelling for flood simulation of potentially vulnerable lakes and to formulate the effective strategies in disaster risk reduction and mitigation plan in minimizing the threat of GLOFs.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3305-0
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Correction to: Remote sensing and in situ-based assessment of rapidly
           growing South Lhonak glacial lake in eastern Himalaya, India
    • Authors: R. K. Sharma; Pranay Pradhan; N. P. Sharma; D. G. Shrestha
      Pages: 411 - 411
      Abstract: In figure 6 the label of the x-axis was accidentally deleted during typesetting. The original article has been corrected.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3348-2
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Remote sensing and in situ platform based study on impact of Bay of Bengal
           cyclones (Phailin, Helen, Lehar, and Madi) on ocean chlorophyll and
           associated physical parameters
    • Authors: R. K. Sarangi; S. K. Shrinidhi; Prakash Chauhan; B. R. Raghavan
      Pages: 413 - 451
      Abstract: Impact of four major cyclones: Phailin, Helen, Lehar, and Madi have been studied in terms of changes in ocean productivity utilizing Indian satellite Oceansat-2 ocean color monitor and MODIS-Aqua data during October–December 2013. The 8-day and monthly composite chlorophyll images have been generated owing to the pre-, during, and post-stages of four cyclones; out of which, three were very severe cyclonic storms and the Helen was severe cyclonic storm. The chlorophyll concentration increased two- to threefolds due to the aftereffect of cyclone in the coastal water, and the concentration was very high (around 2–3 mg/m3). To understand the possible links of cyclones to cooling and upwelling, MODIS-Aqua sea surface temperature (SST) images have been processed. The SST images have shown the cooling effect near the cyclone track pass, over Bay of Bengal. The cooling was observed by 2–3 degree Celsius during the above cyclones. To understand the in situ surface water and water column salinity and temperature variability, the Argo float data are plotted and interpreted. The surface contour shows the lowering of salinity and temperature with effects of cyclones. In addition, the Argo depth profile data have shown possible mixed layer deepening in few profiles around halocline and thermocline depths. This study will be useful for mapping potential fishing zone, ocean biogeochemistry and other useful applications and research.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3307-y
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Seismic performance of tunnel structures: a case study
    • Authors: A. Vanuvamalai; K. P. Jaya; V. Balachandran
      Pages: 453 - 468
      Abstract: In the modern world, the underground tunnels and tunnelling facilities are becoming an integral part of the transportation and environmentally preferred means of providing infrastructure. In view of increasing importance, the current study has been carried out to investigate the seismic performances of tunnel structures assessed by investigating seismic vulnerability of underground tunnels. The paper also evaluates the need for seismic design for a communication (road) tunnel located in Zone V, India, based on physical parameters and structural setting. Source parametric data gathered for the earthquakes during the period from CE 1500 to 2012 have been analysed and reported in this work. The study adopts the secondary data collection methodology (i.e. the information obtained from the secondary sources like newspaper, magazines, and Internet). The study also analyses the spatiotemporal variation in b-value and observed that most severe earthquake is located close to high b-value domains. In the analysis correlation between the magnitude and time interval, reduced variate was observed to be low in the final forecast. The findings from this study indicate that within the project life a maximum magnitude (Mw) of earthquake value 8.6 is likely to occur. Therefore, provision of the seismic coefficient is recommended in this tunnel.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3308-x
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • A resilience optimization model for transportation networks under
    • Authors: Tsai-Yun Liao; Ta-Yin Hu; Yi-No Ko
      Pages: 469 - 489
      Abstract: Natural and/or man-made disasters have caused serious problems in transportation systems due to their unpredictable and destructive characteristics. Under disasters, transportation infrastructure plays an important role in emergency management; however, this infrastructure is also vulnerable because of disasters. One way to describe the vulnerable is through resilience. Resilience refers to the ability to recover from a disruption under unexpected conditions, such as natural and/or man-made disasters. How to enhance resilience of transportation infrastructure under disasters is an important issue when facing natural or man-made disasters. This study aims to measure and optimize transportation resilience under disasters. An optimization model for resilience under the constraints of budget and traversal time is proposed. One special feature is that preparedness and recovery activities are implicitly considered and incorporated within the optimization model. The mathematical model provides a good connection between preparedness/recovery activities and network-level resilience. In order to illustrate the proposed model, a real city network and assumptions on activities of emergency management are used in a series of numerical experiments. Traffic conditions before and after disasters are evaluated by the simulation-assignment model, DynaTAIWAN. Experiments and results illustrate advantages for network-level transportation resilience assessment and also prioritize preparedness and recovery activities under budget constraints.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3310-3
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Response of saturated cohesionless soil subjected to irregular seismic
    • Authors: Shiv Shankar Kumar; Arindam Dey; A. Murali Krishna
      Pages: 509 - 529
      Abstract: Irregular stress waves generated during an earthquake induce irregular shear stresses in the soil, which affect the dynamic behaviour of soil significantly. Laboratory investigations on the response of soils during real earthquake scenario are very limited. This paper reports about the response of saturated sandy soils subjected to irregular cyclic stress histories using stress-controlled cyclic triaxial tests. Tests were conducted at different relative densities (30–90%) and confining stresses (50–150 kPa) representing varying compactness of soil obtained from different confining depths. Cyclic loading was applied as per the three different earthquake motions considered having different peak ground accelerations (PGAs). The responses are presented in terms of stress–strain variations, excess pore-water pressure ratio and shear strain accumulation in the soil specimen. The results indicated that the accumulated shear strains and excess pore-water pressures get significantly affected by the increase in confining stress and simultaneous changes in the relative density. Further, the study emphasized that the strong motions scaled to the same PGA levels produce substantially differing soil responses due to the variation in the associated strong-motion parameters.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3312-1
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Determination of probabilities for the generation of high-discharge flows
           in the middle basin of Elqui River, Chile
    • Authors: Iván P. Vergara Dal Pont; Fernanda A. Santibañez Ossa; Diego Araneo; Francisco J. Ferrando Acuña; Stella M. Moreiras
      Pages: 531 - 546
      Abstract: The probabilities for the generation of hyperconcentrated flows, and debris and mud flows in the middle basin of Elqui River (Chile) are determined. The objective was achieved collecting, for a period of 14 years, the precipitation events generating high-discharge flows, as well as the larger precipitation events that did not generate this process. For each of these events, data of peak 1-h storm precipitation, temperature (representing the zero-isotherm altitude) and antecedent precipitation of 1, 5 and 10 days were collected from three meteorological stations. Initially, an ordinal logistic regression model for each antecedent precipitation was fitted, but all were discarded due to the low significance of these variables in the generation of the models. This result allowed to infer that the high-discharge flows of the region are generated mainly by runoff and not by deep-seated or shallow landslides. Subsequently, a new model with the remaining variables was performed, which was statistically validated. From this, it was considered prudent to take as thresholds for the occurrence of hyperconcentrated flows, and debris and mud flows, their respective probabilities of 50%. For these thresholds, the model had an efficiency in the prediction of high-discharge flows of 90%. Finally, the partial correlation coefficients of each significant predictor variable with respect to the dependent were calculated, establishing that the temperature has greater influence than the peak 1-h storm precipitation.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3313-0
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
  • Comparison of rainfall kinetic energy–intensity relationships for
           Eastern Ghats Highland region of India
    • Authors: Ch. Jyotiprava Dash; Partha Pratim Adhikary; N. K. Das; N. M. Alam; Uday Mandal; P. K. Mishra
      Pages: 547 - 558
      Abstract: Kinetic energy and intensity of rainfall are commonly used factors to predict soil erosion by water. The difficulty in measuring these parameters triggers the scientific community to use the kinetic energy–intensity relationship to compute soil erosion. Six kinetic energy–intensity relationships (three exponential, one linear, one logarithmic and one power law) were used to compute and compare rainfall erosivity of Eastern Ghats Highland region of India. The result showed that when the rainfall intensity was < 6 mm h−1, there was a significant difference among the kinetic energy values computed using Brown and Foster, McGregor and Hudson relationships; however, no significant difference was observed for the values computed with van Dijk and Wischmeier and Smith. On the other hand, there was no significant difference in kinetic energy values computed with the different equations for rainfall intensity greater than 30 mm h−1. Highest and lowest rainfall erosivity was computed for Meshesha (6633.0 MJ ha−1 mm h−1 y−1) and Hudson (5503.2 MJ ha−1 mm h−1 y−1) equations, respectively. On an average, annual rainfall erosivity value was observed to be 23.4% lower when computed using I60 than that of I30. Therefore, use of I60 in place of I30 for the study area cannot be suggested. Instead of that, proper calculation of I30 is more important than choosing right kinetic energy–intensity relationship equation.
      PubDate: 2018-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3314-z
      Issue No: Vol. 93, No. 1 (2018)
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