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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [225 followers]  Follow
    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2352 journals]
  • A geo-ontology-based approach to decision-making in emergency management
           of meteorological disasters
    • Authors: Shaobo Zhong; Zhixiang Fang; Min Zhu; Quanyi Huang
      Pages: 531 - 554
      Abstract: Abstract Ontology as a kind of method for knowledge representation is able to provide semantic integration for decision support in emergency management activities of meteorological disasters. We examine a meteorological disaster system as composed of four components: disastrous meteorological events, hazard-inducing environments, hazard-bearing bodies, and emergency management. The geospatial characteristics of these components can be represented with geographical ontology (geo-ontology). In this paper, we propose an ontology representation of domain knowledge of a meteorological disaster system descending from an adapted geospatial foundation ontology, designed to formally conceptualize the domain terms and establish relationships between those concepts. The class hierarchy and relationships of the proposed ontology are implemented finally at top level, domain level/task level, and application level. The potential application of the ontology is illustrated with a case study of prediction of secondary disasters and evacuation decision of a typhoon event. The multi-level ontology model can provide semantic support for before-, during-, after-event emergency management activities such as risk assessment, resource preparedness, and emergency response where the formed concepts and their relationships can be incorporated into reasoning sentences of these decision processes. Furthermore, the ontology model is realized with a universally used intermediate language OWL, which enables it to be used in popular environments. This work will underlie the semantic integration among human beings, between heterogeneous systems and between human beings and systems, enable spatial semantic reasoning, and will be useful in guiding advanced decision support in emergency management of meteorological disasters.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2979-z
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Dynamic changes in the energy–carbon performance of Chinese
           transportation sector: a meta-frontier non-radial directional distance
           function approach
    • Authors: Gang Tian; Jian Shi; Licheng Sun; Xingle Long; Benhai Guo
      Pages: 585 - 607
      Abstract: Abstract The transportation sector is the main energy consumer and carbon emitter in China. To accurately evaluate the dynamic changes in the energy–carbon performance of the sector and to propose alternatives for sustainable development, this paper proposes an approach incorporating the meta-frontier method, global benchmark technology, and non-radial directional distance function. Using this approach, the paper proposes a new definition, named the global meta-frontier non-radial Malmquist energy–carbon performance index (GMNMECPI). GMNMECPI can be decomposed into technical efficiency change (EC), best-practice gap change (BPC), and technology gap change (TGC). This new method was then used to estimate the dynamic changes of energy–carbon performance in China’s transportation sector from 2006 to 2015. The paper also identifies the effect of current policies. The empirical results show that the energy–carbon performance of China’s transportation sector decreased annually by 1.636% during the study period. This reduction was mainly caused by a significant technology lag in the central area while primarily influenced by deterioration in efficiency in both the east and west. There is a distinct heterogeneity in technology across China’s three areas. Based on the findings, the paper closes with policy implications.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2981-5
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Methodology for the analysis of causes of drought vulnerability on the
           River Basin scale
    • Authors: Jesús Vargas; Pilar Paneque
      Pages: 609 - 621
      Abstract: Abstract The concept of vulnerability has emerged in recent decades as a key concept for the research on drought risk as well as in the implementation of mitigation strategies of drought risk. The context within which this concept emerges is one of scientific consensus: the research community agrees that we are witnessing a paradigm shift in water management policies, within a broader framework of changes in the relationship between humans and nature. In this context, vulnerability studies must become an instrument for the assessment and mitigation of risk. Based on the proposals put forward by the IPCC concerning the components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), this paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation and analysis of drought vulnerability on the river basin scale. The methodology results in the calculation of a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) and the use of different techniques for the interpretation of results.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2982-4
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Erratum to: Methodology for the analysis of causes of drought
           vulnerability on the River Basin scale
    • Authors: Jesús Vargas; Pilar Paneque
      Pages: 623 - 623
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3005-1
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Historical tsunami records and potential tsunami scenarios near Haikou
           coastal region
    • Authors: Xi Zhao; Yunpeng Jiang; Zhiyuan Ren; Hua Liu
      Pages: 625 - 645
      Abstract: Abstract Historical tsunami records in the South China Sea are collected and analyzed in this paper. There have been about 54 tsunamis in the South China Sea since 1076. The impacts of the transoceanic tsunamis on the southeast coast of China are weak. However, the regional tsunamis in the South China Sea bring varying degrees of influence to the south coast of China, which occurred about 18 times. By the analysis of the potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea, numerical simulations of tsunami induced in the Manila Trench are carried out. It is found that the tsunami wave height is small near Haikou if the general earthquake tsunami occurred. But the tsunami wave height is large when a giant earthquake of M9.3 occurred. If this extreme situation arises, the impacts to the coast of Haikou will be serious.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2983-3
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Regional disaster risk evaluation of China based on the universal risk
           model
    • Authors: Lu Chen; Yue-cheng Huang; Rui-zhen Bai; An Chen
      Pages: 647 - 660
      Abstract: Abstract A comprehensive understanding and scientific evaluation of natural disasters risk is not only the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation, but also the urgent needs of the economic and social sustainable development. Disaster risk evaluation index system in accordance with Chinese reality was constructed, which contains 5 second-class indicators and 28 third-class indicators; moreover, the universal risk evaluation model was designed combined with nonlinear damage evaluation method; then, the disaster risk of China’s 31 provinces was evaluated, as well as the urban risk ranking and risk map of 31 provinces were presented. The evaluation results can make us see the urban risk situation clearly and intuitively, which helps the related department to clearly focus on their work, as well as provides theoretical guidance for the national and local disaster prevention and mitigation planning.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2984-2
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Erratum to: Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods
           using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan
           Area, Ghana
    • Authors: Paul William Kojo Yankson; Alex Barimah Owusu; George Owusu; John Boakye-Danquah; Jacob Doku Tetteh
      Pages: 691 - 691
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3006-0
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • An approach to quality validation of large-scale data from the Chinese
           Flash Flood Survey and Evaluation (CFFSE)
    • Authors: Ximin Yuan; Yesen Liu; Yaohuan Huang; Fuchang Tian
      Pages: 693 - 704
      Abstract: Abstract Quality control of large-scale flash flood survey and evaluation data is vital and refers to various social and natural factors. In this study, we present a quality validation approach that uses a data model, Anselin Local Moran’s I (DM-Moran), which is based on a model of the flash flood data and a spatial data mining algorithm. The approach of the DM-Moran model involves examining logical relationships and detecting anomalous survey units, which effectively integrates the advantages of certainty rules and checking for reasonableness. It resolves the inconsistencies in massive amounts of flash flood survey data that result from inconsistencies. We used the DM-Moran model to validate the quality of the data of the Chinese Flash Flood Survey and Evaluation (CFFSE) project. The kappa coefficients of the two steps of this approach were 0.95 and 0.99, which meet the requirements of the CFFSE project. We consider the DM-Moran model an effective approach to checking the quality of various other large-scale disaster datasets.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2986-0
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Dual polarization radar Lagrangian parameters: a statistics-based
           probabilistic nowcasting model
    • Authors: Bruno Lisbôa Medina; Luiz A. T. Machado
      Pages: 705 - 721
      Abstract: Abstract The aim of this study is to present a statistics-based Lagrangian nowcasting model to predict intense rainfall convective events based on dual polarization radar parameters. The data employed in this study are from X-band radar collected during the CHUVA-Vale campaign from November 2011 to March 2012 in southeast Brazil. The model was designed to catch the important physical characteristics of storms, such as the presence of supercooled water above 0 °C isotherm, vertical ice crystals in high levels, graupel development in the mixed-phase layer and storm vertical growth, using polarimetric radar in the mixed-phase layer. These parameters are based on different polarimetric radar quantities in the mixed phase, such as negative differential reflectivity (Z DR) and specific differential phase (K DP), low correlation coefficient (ρ hv) and high reflectivity Z h values. Storms were tracked to allow the Lagrangian temporal derivation. The model is based on the estimation of the proportion of radar echo volume in the mixed phase that is likely to be associated with intense storm hydrometeors. Thirteen parameters are used in this probabilistic nowcasting model, which is able to predict the potential for future storm development. The model distinguishes two different categories of storms, intense and non-intense rain cell events by determining how many parameters reach the “intense” storm threshold.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2988-y
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Experimental study on bar formation in a scouring process
    • Authors: Xiaofeng Zhang; Mi Li; Yuanji Li; Jianwei Sun
      Pages: 723 - 740
      Abstract: Abstract Bars are widely thought to be large sediment bodies formed under sediment supply. Nevertheless, little has been known on how they form in sediment scouring processes. In this study, we carried out a flume experiment to study the formation of bars without sediment supply. The experiment was divided into two stages. In the first stage, the discharge was successively increased; in each discharge step, the disturbance from upstream and downstream boundaries had little influence on the flow. We observed that no bars formed in this stage. In the second stage, we kept a small discharge at the flume inlet. In this stage, the bars emerged from the fluctuated bed topography with millimeter-scale bed forms by headcut initiated from the outlet. As the headcut migrated upstream, the accompanying undercut gradually forced the unconfined flow run into the low-elevation zone, lowering the water level and inducing the outcrop of regions free from the incision (i.e., bars). At the end of the experiment, a relatively stable topography formed under the joint effect of the upstream migrating headcut, the following undercut after the headcut and the lateral erosion on the emerged bars. The requirements for the formation of bars and the distinctive characteristics of the bars induced by headcut were investigated. This study shows that bars can form in a scouring process under appropriate conditions, and the headcut may be one of the precipitating factors for the formation of bars in natural rivers.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2989-x
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • An extended STIRPAT model-based methodology for evaluating the driving
           forces affecting carbon emissions in existing public building sector:
           evidence from China in 2000–2015
    • Authors: Minda Ma; Ran Yan; Weiguang Cai
      Pages: 741 - 756
      Abstract: Abstract Productive building energy efficiency work is a non-ignored booster to achieve the sustainable development in China, and evaluating the driving forces of carbon emissions in Chinese public buildings (CECPB) plays a crucial role in China building energy efficiency work. Nevertheless, China building energy efficiency work is currently challenged by the lack of effective approaches to evaluating the driving forces affecting CECPB at a quantitative level. To improve the carbon emission control strategy of Chinese public buildings, this study utilized the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and ridge regression analysis to evaluate the driving forces affecting CECPB from 2000 to 2015. This study has three main results: (1) All of the five driving forces (i.e., population, urbanization level, floor area per capita of existing Chinese public buildings, GDP index in the Chinese tertiary industry sector, and carbon emission intensity in Chinese public buildings) have positive contributions to CECPB during the period of 2000–2015. (2) The different contributions of the aforementioned driving forces can be expressed by their different β values in decreasing order, as follows: floor area per capita of existing Chinese public buildings (21.12%), population (20.98%), urbanization level (20.81%), carbon emission intensity in Chinese public buildings (20.20%), and GDP index in the Chinese tertiary industry sector (19.44%). (3) The goodness of fit for the final ridge regression analysis proves that the proposed evaluation method is also applicable for evaluating these driving forces at a subitem level. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the feasibility of evaluating the driving forces affecting CECPB using the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis and fills the research gap. The discoveries of this study can impel the development of the carbon emission control strategy of Chinese public buildings for the upcoming phase.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2990-4
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • 3D dynamics of debris flows quantified at sub-second intervals from laser
           profiles
    • Authors: Mylène Jacquemart; Lorenz Meier; Christoph Graf; Felix Morsdorf
      Pages: 785 - 800
      Abstract: Abstract We use pairs of parallel mounted laser profile scanners to measure main debris-flow variables in two debris-flow channels in central and southern Switzerland. The scanners measure the instantaneous cross-sectional geometry of debris flows at rates of 25–100 Hz, and we apply large-scale particle image velocimetery to estimate velocity. The scanners also provide direct measurements of flow depth. From these data, we were able to estimate debris-flow depth, velocity and discharge for 16 out of 17 events. These results are consistent with discharge estimated from a system of geophones and a radar gauge for two available datasets. We also investigated debris-flow geometry to quantify rheology-controlled cross-flow convexity and found that four events manifest strong surface convexity at their surge fronts where we expect the largest boulders and low pore-fluid pressures. The scanners provide a completely new view of debris-flow dynamics and channel morphology and present novel opportunities to measure discharge and investigate debris-flow geometries.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2993-1
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • The roles of community assets in mitigating the impact of drought on grain
           yields in Northwest China
    • Authors: Yangyang Li; Yangjie Wang; Xiaohong Chen
      Pages: 801 - 815
      Abstract: Abstract As an arid and semiarid region in that is frequently hit by drought, Northwest China is ecologically vulnerable. Faced with drought and other extreme events, policy makers have given top priority to the formulation and implementation of adaptation policies. This paper investigates the roles of community assets, including community social capital and access to public services, in mitigating the impact of drought in Northwest China. Based on a micro-level dataset of individual households and villages from two provinces, we find a major effect of community assets on grain yields, after controlling for other influences. Our econometric analyses show that the severity of drought in the study areas significantly reduces grain yields. The negative impact of drought, however, can be significantly mitigated in villages with better community assets. Several policies, including enhancing investments in communities’ infrastructure and providing public services related to drought, are recommended to both improve local adaptive capacity to drought and reduce poverty in the drought-prone areas.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2994-0
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Characteristics analysis of spatial and temporal variation on extreme
           weather events in Anhui Province for recent 50 years
    • Authors: Jun Zhao; Jinchao Xu; Xuechun Li; Yi Zhong; Donghao Han; Hang Qiu
      Pages: 817 - 842
      Abstract: Abstract To explore the evolution of extreme weather events, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation with mutual impact and adaptation are studied. Firstly, it selects the average temperature and the daily precipitation data to investigate the variation characteristics of extreme weather events by linear regression method, accumulative anomalies, Mann–Kendall trend analysis and mutation test with surfer 11 software. Secondly, the effect of weather change on extreme events evolution and its adaptability is analyzed. As for temperature, the average maximum and minimum temperatures increase on the whole in nearly 50 years and decrease gradually from south to north and from east to west with regional distribution. As for precipitation, the extreme precipitation has the mutation and shows a trend of increase for recent 50 years. Compared with different time periods and return periods, the frequency estimates show that extreme precipitation increases firstly and then decreases with each passing day. As for the effect and adaptability, the change of extreme temperature is consistent with extreme precipitation, such as mutation points, and the corresponding spatial relationships. Then the development of weather change is grasped as much as possible, providing the scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2995-z
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • A comparative study on uncooperative search models in survivor search and
           rescue
    • Authors: Qianqian Liu; Qun Wang
      Pages: 843 - 857
      Abstract: Abstract Resource allocation is a challenging topic in the search and rescue in post-disaster process, especially in situations a central management system is not available. Previous studies have well demonstrated the need to improve the search and rescue decision-making in these situations. However, a challenge that current models are facing is how to predict the search cost and efficiency considering the random distribution of survivors with little information or coordination. Based on the discussion on cooperative and uncooperative search and rescue, this paper makes a first attempt to compare the performance of both macroscopic and microscopic search models in search and rescue process, where search and rescue teams are supposed to operate independently, which means in an uncooperative way. The paper further uses the Lévy search in microscopic simulation models, comparing normal random search. The numerical example shows that the macromodel is easy to compute with less demanding data, but its output is more optimistic than that of micromodels, which highlights the need of simulation methods in search and rescue management. Besides, Lévy search is proved to be more efficient than normal random search, especially when the distribution of survivors is sparse and nonuniform; this is mainly because its efficient search area is larger. The findings provide important information for selecting effective analytical models in search and rescue management to save survivors.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2996-y
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • A study of landslide deformation fields with a digital correlation method
    • Authors: Yonghong Zhao; Hang Wang; Qiong Zhang; Dan Zhang; Yuqing Xie; Jiaying Yang
      Pages: 859 - 869
      Abstract: Abstract Landslides are a form of geological disaster. Landslide development around the Three Gorges Dam is affected by many factors, such as the dam’s water storage cycle, flood discharge and precipitation. In this work, we investigated the Woshaxi landslide in Zigui County, Hubei Province. We gathered landslide images from April to May 2015, using digital cameras to observe the landslide surface. The landslide images were analyzed with a digital correlation method to obtain a landslide deformation field. The overall displacement was distributed non-uniformly, with displacements of up to 50 cm. We found landslide movement is a non-uniform and non-rigid body motion. By integrating the speckle method, grayscale feature search and other related methods, we not only succeeded in dealing with landslide data at various scales and levels, but also solved problems such as the registration of collected images and peering of gray levels. We calculated the displacement variation and direction of all landslide points and obtained the landslide displacement distribution. The method’s indoor calibration test error was within an acceptable range. This method is a good candidate for landscape monitoring due to its convenient operation, low cost and ability to extract useful information from a huge amount of data.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2997-x
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters and their risk in Gansu
           Province against the background of climate change
    • Authors: Ying Wang; Qiang Zhang; Su-Ping Wang; Jin-Song Wang; Yu-bi Yao
      Pages: 899 - 921
      Abstract: Abstract Gansu Province is a high-incidence area for many meteorological disasters. In this research, using affected and covered risk indices for the main agro-meteorological disasters (drought, flood, wind hail, and frost), the variability characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters were analyzed and the risks calculated based on the information diffusion method against the background of climate change in Gansu Province. The results showed that of affected (crop yield reduced by >10%) and covered (crop yield reduced by >30%) areas for drought and frost tended to increase between 1978 and 2014, whereas those for flood and wind hail tended to decrease. The affected and covered risk indices for drought increased, those for flood and wind hail showed a slight decreasing trend, the frost affected risk index decreased, and the frost covered risk index increased. Comparing the four kinds of risk for agro-meteorological disasters, the estimated risk decreased as the affected and covered risk indices increased. The risk of drought was more serious than those for other agro-meteorological disasters for the same affected risk index, followed by frost, flood, and wind hail. The most serious disaster agro-meteorological covered risk was wind hail, followed by drought, flood, and frost. After a rapid change in temperature in 1994, the estimated affected risk values of drought and frost increased on average by 17.56 and 96.83%, respectively, whereas the estimated risks of flood and wind hail decreased on average by 15.59 and 5.90%, respectively. After the temperature jump, the estimated covered risk of drought increased on average by 19.57%, whereas those of flood, wind hail, and frost decreased on average by 3.02, 1.78, and 26.10%, respectively. These new scientific discoveries are significant for agro-meteorological disaster prevention in Gansu Province.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2999-8
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Public attention to the great smog event: a case study of the 2013 smog
           event in Harbin, China
    • Authors: Jiuchang Wei; Wanling Zhan; Xiumei Guo; Dora Marinova
      Pages: 923 - 938
      Abstract: Abstract The 2013 outbreak of smog in China triggered unprecedented public attention in the country, which played a critical role in crisis communication and management. This study explores the determinants that influence public attention from the non-smog-stricken cities to the smog events. Following the literature on proximity, this study identified three influencing factors, namely cognitive, geographical, and organizational proximity, between two cities. We tested these factors by analyzing the public attention to the smog event that occurred in Harbin, China, on October 21, 2013. Data collected from Sina Weibo yielded 5409 Harbin smog-related Weibo posts sent between October 20, 2013, and October 31, 2013, from 113 cities. Results provide some support for the hypothesis.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3000-6
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • Simulating storm surge waves for structural vulnerability estimation and
           flood hazard mapping
    • Authors: Adam Hatzikyriakou; Ning Lin
      Pages: 939 - 962
      Abstract: Abstract Wave action during storm surge is a common cause of building damage and therefore a critical consideration when estimating structural vulnerability and mapping flood risk. Traditional depth-damage curves, however, relate building vulnerability solely to inundation depth and therefore neglect an important damage mechanism. Similarly, flood mapping studies typically emphasize expected inundation rather than wave conditions. In this study, we consider the impact of wave effects on vulnerability estimation and flood mapping using a pair of hydrodynamic models (ADCIRC + SWAN and BOUSS1D) to simulate inland storm surge flooding. The models are used to simulate flooding in a heavily impacted coastal community (Ortley Beach, New Jersey) during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and to estimate inland hazard parameters characterizing inundation, wave and velocity effects. To quantify structural vulnerability, fragility curves are developed by statistically relating the simulated hazard parameters to surveyed building damage. The results indicate that dynamic hazard characteristics such as significant wave height are the dominant predictors of severe structural damage. The flood simulation is also used to map the variation of surge and wave effects in the community. Comparing this analysis to flood zones delineated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the community’s Flood Insurance Rate Map reveals severe wave action and building damage in a significant portion of the community deemed least exposed to flood impact. It is suspected that this misrepresentation of risk resulted from overconfidence in the performance of the community’s frontal dune under severe surge and wave actions.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3001-5
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
  • ENSO-induced drought hazards and wet spells and related agricultural
           losses across Anhui province, China
    • Authors: Peng Sun; Qiang Zhang; Chen Cheng; Vijay P. Singh; Peijun Shi
      Pages: 963 - 983
      Abstract: Abstract Using daily precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations for a period of 1961–2014, spatiotemporal features of wet spells and droughts and related impacts on agricultural production across Anhui province, China, were investigated with a linear regressive technique, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the modified Mann–Kendall trend test method. Results indicated that: (1) ENSO-induced wet spells and droughts accounted for 83 and 68% of the total wet spells and droughts and droughts were closely related to La Nina events of the same and subsequent years. Wet spells, however, were closely related to El Niño events; (2) a larger variability was found in the SPEI, showing larger flood and drought risks during spring and autumn than those during summer and winter seasons. Generally, wet spells in winter were relatively high and the drying tendency was identified in winter during recent years; (3) relations between SPEI and SSTA were shifting during warm and cold phases of ENSO. The warm phase of ENSO tended to have larger impacts on SPEI in southern Anhui province, and the cold phase of ENSO had a greater impact on the SPEI variation in northern Anhui province. Comparatively, SSTA had an increasing impact on wet spells and droughts with increasing lag time; and (4) the reduction of rice and maize production in southern Anhui province was found mainly during 1 year earlier to the ENSO events. The amount of reduction of maize was larger in northern Anhui province and Jianghuai region, years with maize reduction were more often in southern Anhui province. Irrigation in central Anhui province can mitigate the negative effects of wet spells and droughts.
      PubDate: 2017-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3002-4
      Issue No: Vol. 89, No. 2 (2017)
       
 
 
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