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International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.211  Citation Impact (citeScore): 1 Number of Followers: 11  Hybrid journal * Containing 1  Open Access article(s) in this issue *ISSN (Print) 1753-8270 - ISSN (Online) 1753-8289 Published by Emerald  [362 journals]
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- Artificial intelligence algorithms to predict housing market prices in
Surabaya, Indonesia-
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Authors: Anastasia Njo, Hansel Davin Sugiarto, Doddy Prayogo
Abstract: As the second largest city in Indonesia, Surabaya characterized by rapid economic growth and dynamic real estate markets, faces challenges in property valuation including data limitations, subjectivity and traditional methods that lead to inaccurate property pricing. To address these issues, machine learning (ML)-based methods offer the potential to provide more accurate predictions by leveraging historical data and identifying complex patterns. This study aims to analyze and evaluate the accuracy of various ML algorithms in assessing residential property prices in Surabaya. An extensive data set about house prices is collected using hypertext preprocessor language (PHP) to scrap (Web scraping) from a property marketplace called Rumah123 in the capital of East Java Island, namely, Surabaya. This data is used to train and test multiple linear regression model and three popular ML models, i.e. artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and classification and regression tree (CART), to predict house prices with 16 different features. The model’s performance was evaluated using the linear correlation, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The results showed that the ANN performed better than the others, both in bigger and smaller clusters. On the other hand, SVM is not recommended for predicting house prices in Surabaya due to its poor accuracy. Predictor importance of ANN in both clusters shows that subdistricts have less impact on the house prices, which makes some data that have the same price guessed differently by ANN, probably due to a lack of data. The easiness of the proposed model will allow future users to predict house prices with different models and data sets. Alternatively, further research may implement a different model using neural network, knowing that this model works better for this kind of task. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comparison of the three ML models (ANN, SVM and CART) and linear regression when predicting house prices, and all parameters are tuned with the grid search method.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-04-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0022
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Textual data analysis for enhancing housing management
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Authors: Changro Lee
Abstract: Despite the ubiquitous presence of textual data in daily life and their significance for businesses, textual data have not been investigated proactively in the housing industry. The unstructured nature of textual data is a key obstacle. This study aims to address this gap by fully using text documents related to housing management and providing both residents and property managers with insights. Using text vectorization methods, such as term frequency-inverse document frequency and word embeddings, 9,023 consultation records from the Seoul Support Center for Apartment Management were converted into numeric data. Subsequently, the numeric data were fed into a k-means clustering algorithm for document classification. Eight distinct clusters were identified and analyzed. Each cluster represents a unique category: general inquiries, management regulations, vendor company selection, residents’ representative council, budgeting, interpretation of laws, long-term repair plans and the ministry responsible for apartment management. The approach adopted in this study is expected to enhance housing management practices by facilitating the prompt classification of resident inquiries, thereby optimizing housing policies and practice.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-04-11
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0005
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Spatial examination of house prices via cluster analysis
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Authors: Leyla Alkan-Gökler
Abstract: In Ankara, house prices exhibit significant variation across different locations, a trend closely tied to speculative behaviors in the Turkish housing market. Many neighborhoods remain unaffordable, even for households within the highest income quintile. This raises critical questions: To what extent are these pronounced price differences attributable to the specific attributes of the housing stock' Can Ankara’s housing market be segmented into homogeneous clusters based on housing characteristics and price levels' What are the primary factors influencing housing prices, and what role does speculation play in shaping these dynamics' This study aims to address these questions through the application of various statistical analyses. This study examines housing market differentiation in Ankara by applying cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and hedonic price analysis, using data from 12,460 dwelling units across 325 neighborhoods within eight central districts of the city. The findings of this study indicate that speculation can be a significant determinant of house prices, as evidenced by the considerable price variations observed even among properties with similar physical characteristics. Cluster analysis, a commonly used statistical method in the segmentation of housing submarkets, plays a central role in this research. However, unlike prior studies, this paper tries to explore the existence of homogeneous clusters within Ankara’s housing markets in the context of housing affordability and housing speculation via different statistical techniques.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-04-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2024-0191
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Identifying Factors contributing to Homebuyers’ Satisfaction in an
Affordable Housing market using CFA and SEM: A Study in Kolkata, India-
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Authors: Sujoy Biswas, Arjun Mukerji
Abstract: This study aims to identify the key factors that significantly influence Homebuyers’ satisfaction in privately developed affordable housing in Kolkata. The literature review identified 119 parameters relevant to evaluating homebuyers’ satisfaction, complemented by prior studies from various national and international contexts. Subsequently, a questionnaire survey was conducted on 383 households residing in affordable housing units across 32 privately developed housing complexes in Kolkata. Respondents rated their satisfaction on a five-point Likert-type scale for each parameter. The study then employed Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to determine the significant latent constructs and identify the determinants of homebuyers’ satisfaction. The findings revealed both Building-level and Neighbourhood-level factors are significant contributors to Homebuyers’ satisfaction. Specifically, building-level determinants such as the carpet area, natural ventilation and water supply systems were found to be influential. At the neighbourhood level, factors including traffic congestion, unpleasant odours, waterlogging, noise and proximity to playgrounds emerged as critical determinants. Addressing a notable research gap in the affordable housing market of Kolkata – one of India’s Tier-1 cities – this study provides valuable insights into the elements that drive customer satisfaction, thereby contributing to both academic research and practical applications in urban housing development.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-04-01
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2025-0033
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- The impact of financial stress on house price expectations: evidence from
survey data-
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Authors: Debasis Rooj, Asish Saha, Reshmi Sengupta, Anurag Banerjee
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the impact of financial stress on house price expectations using unit-level observations from novel survey data. The authors use household-level data from the Inflation Expectation Survey of Households of the Reserve Bank of India and the Financial Stress Index (FSI) released by Tracking Asian Integration of the Asian Development Bank. The authors exploit the variations in household price expectations and estimate the impact of lagged FSI on house price expectations. The authors find that increased financial stress results in lower house price expectations and has a stronger impact for the near term vis-à-vis a year ahead. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that a rise in FSI leads to increased expectations of house prices among women. Expectations are lower for the older population and people with less income stability. Asymmetric analysis reveals that house price expectations are more sensitive to high financial stress, offering new insights into the cyclical nature of housing sentiment. Moreover, the equity market and the foreign exchange market have the highest negative impact on house price expectations during financial stress. The findings of the association between financial stability, housing prices and credit and house price expectations have crucial implications for the central bank. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of FSI on house price expectations observational data. The authors also uncover the heterogenous impact of FSI based on the socio-economic characteristics of the households. The authors further explore the asymmetric and disaggregated impact of FSI on house price expectations.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-31
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0012
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- A hybrid machine learning approach for housing price prediction: the
stacking regressor method-
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Authors: Ömer Gökberk Erbulut, Zeynep Çolak
Abstract: This study aims to explore alternative methodologies by comparing popular and effective machine learning models for housing price prediction. The primary objective is to develop a hybrid Stacking Regressor model combining multiple regression algorithms to leverage their strengths through a meta-model, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. The performance of widely used machine learning algorithms, including CatBoost, XGBoost, Random Forest, Extra Trees, Hist Gradient Boosting and Gradient Boosting, was evaluated using various error metrics for housing price prediction. Feature engineering and parameter optimization were applied to improve model performance, resulting in significant enhancements, particularly for Random Forest and Extra Trees. Furthermore, a Stacking Regressor model was constructed by integrating multiple regression algorithms to capitalize on their collective predictive capabilities. The results indicate that CatBoost achieved the lowest error rates among the evaluated models. Random Forest and XGBoost also performed comparably, whereas Gradient Boosting exhibited higher error rates. The hybrid Stacking Regressor model outperformed all algorithms, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy. These findings underscore the potential of integrating machine learning models to address complex data sets and improve overall model performance. This study is the data preprocessing and feature engineering processes, which are often overlooked in prior research but critical to machine learning models’ success. Additionally, the study contributes to the field by proposing a hybrid model – the Stacking Regressor. This model combines multiple regression algorithms and uses a meta-model to integrate the strengths of the base models, thereby aiming to improve prediction accuracy.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0010
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- The pandemic puzzle: the causal impact of government stringency on housing
prices-
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Authors: Orhan Erdem, Zeynullah Gider
Abstract: This study aims to examine the causal impact of COVID-19 stringency measures on U.S. housing markets, focusing on house price returns. By analyzing the entire pandemic period, it provides a comprehensive assessment of government interventions’ effects on regional housing dynamics. Using the Oxford Stringency Index, this study applies a causal framework with difference-in-differences, propensity score matching and generalized propensity score techniques on data from 51 U.S. states (2020–2022), controlling for income, unemployment, political tendency and COVID-19 cases. Results reveal a nonlinear, inverse U-shaped relationship between stringency measures and house price returns. Moderate restrictions supported housing markets, while excessive stringency had adverse effects. House price returns rise from 2.787% at the 25th percentile to 4.253% at the 75th percentile of policy stringency but decline to 0.696% at the 99th percentile. These findings underscore the impact of government interventions on real estate markets during crises. Focusing on U.S. data may limit the generalizability of findings to other countries. Stringency policies aim to protect lives, but their application varies by state due to differing public beliefs. Understanding their impact on housing markets allows states to take preemptive measures. Data-driven policies help real estate stakeholders anticipate market shifts and adapt strategies during crises. Public health policies can inadvertently affect housing demand. This study highlights the need for equitable policy frameworks to mitigate unintended consequences during crises. Unlike prior research on specific periods or regions, this study applies advanced causal inference to comprehensively assess COVID-19 stringency measures’ impact on U.S. housing markets throughout the pandemic.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0015
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Forecasting housing distribution based on housing market dynamics in
rapidly developing cities: the case of Doha metropolitan-
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Authors: Alaa Alrababaa, Hatem Ibrahim, Eslam Shaheen, Hossam Samir Ibrahim
Abstract: This paper aims to examine the housing market dynamics in Doha Metropolitan in the context of projected demographic changes by 2035, which are expected to significantly influence the housing sector. Focusing on downtown, waterfront and suburban areas within a rapidly developing urban environment, the study analyzes four major factors: (i) residential land use policy and capacity, (ii) government housing policies, (iii) housing supply and demand and (iv) housing preferences. A multimethodological approach is employed, including an assessment of housing policies, content analysis of supply-demand dynamics and a survey capturing population housing preferences. The findings provide key insights for policymakers, urban planners and developers, highlighting an oversupply of residential land and housing stock and emphasizing the need for strategic housing distribution to address misalignments between supply and demand. The strategy prioritizes utilizing existing housing stock, with strategic development of vacant lands and increasing affordable housing in suburban and waterfront area. This research presents a data-driven framework as a valuable contribution to the science of housing supply and demand, offering a predictive model to guide housing distribution in rapidly urbanizing cities worldwide.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0008
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Relocation intention to a retirement village: using the Push-Pull-Mooring
framework-
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Authors: Qin Ming Chuah, Consilz Tan
Abstract: Retirement villages are residential communities designed for seniors, offering various amenities and services tailored to their needs. This study aims to investigate factors influencing relocation intention to retirement villages in Malaysia by using the push-pull-mooring framework. Using a quantitative survey of 345 individuals aged 35 and above, the authors identified important push and pull factors using mental well-being as the mooring factor which moderates the relocation intention. This research identifies significant push factors, including health and mobility constraints, social isolation, home maintenance issues and lifestyle changes. Conversely, built environment and affordability, location, maintenance of existing lifestyle and familiarity act as important pull factors attracting residents to retirement villages. The inclusion of the mooring factor, representing mental well-being, enhances the explanatory power of the models, suggesting it has a moderating effect on the relationship between push-pull factors and relocation intentions. The paper provides important implications for preparing a nation that is fostering stronger mental health amongst older adults, especially countries like Malaysia, which is moving towards an increasingly ageing population. Social interaction and community engagement should not be neglected when policymakers and developers delve into spatial planning for retirement homes. Specifically, the preferred facilities included a 24-h emergency call system, access to medical facilities, space for outdoor activities and assisted living components. These findings provide foundational insights on effective policy formulation for retirement villages. This study used the push-pull-mooring framework to better estimate the relocation intention, which helped to pinpoint factors compelling individuals to plan for their retirement residence. The outcomes of this research provided more targeted information to policymakers and stakeholders in providing comprehensive healthcare services in retirement villages that address the elderly’s social and psychological needs. In addition, through the moderating effect, the study confirmed the importance of mental well-being.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0013
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- A stakeholder-based framework for implementing solar home systems in
public housing projects in the United Arab Emirates-
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Authors: Abdalla Mahmoud Salim, Saleh Abu Dabous
Abstract: This study aims to develop a stakeholder-based framework for successfully implementing solar home system (SHS) programs in the public housing sector of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A mixed-methods approach was used in this study. The literature published between 2010 and 2025 was reviewed to examine existing frameworks from various countries. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 56 institutional stakeholders involved in SHS implementation in the UAE to gather insights for designing the framework’s components. In addition, focused group interviews with 24 experts helped validate the data. The proposed stakeholder-based framework highlights the central role of the government as the primary stakeholder in evaluating success through defined goals and performance metrics. It incorporates the unique success factors of each stakeholder, weighted by their significance, and uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to identify key performance indicators (KPIs) for standardized success measurement. This study identifies 50 critical success factors (CSFs) categorized into seven key areas, providing a structured approach to optimizing SHS deployment. This framework enables policymakers and practitioners to effectively assess and compare SHS programs, ensuring alignment with stakeholder objectives and regional socioeconomic and environmental conditions. The framework offers an enhanced understanding of measuring SHS implementation in the UAE, in contrast to the simple metrics often used in practice. It provides valuable insights for improving SHS strategies, with practical and theoretical implications that empower stakeholders to assess and compare program success based on regional factors. As one of the first frameworks tailored to the UAE’s public housing sector, it is potentially applicable to other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries with similar political, economic, environmental and cultural conditions.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2024-0188
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Determinants of single-family residential property values in Ethiopia: a
comparative analysis of willingness to pay or receive and real transaction
data-
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Authors: Masresha Belete Asnakew, Melkam Ayalew Gebru, Wuditu Belete, Takele Abebe, Yeshareg Baye Simegn
Abstract: This study aims to identify determinants of single-family residential property values and fill the gap by analyzing respondents’ willingness to pay/receive data alongside real transaction data. Ordinal logistic regression and ordinal least square regression were used. Ordinal logistic regression effectively analyzes willingness-to-pay/receive data, accommodating the ordered nature of property value responses while incorporating multiple influencing factors. Ordinal least square regression quantifies the impact of continuous and categorical predictors on real transaction data. Findings revealed strong associations between property values and several variables. Analysis of willingness-to-pay/accept data from 232 respondents showed significant impacts of factors such as the number of rooms, site area, construction material, property orientation, property age and proximity to bus stations and the central business district (p < 0.05). Similarly, ordinal least square regression analysis of transaction data confirmed the significance of most of these factors, except for property orientation, which indicates the difference of preference in the local market or reporting inconsistencies, demand further investigation. Variables such as views, proximity to wetlands, roads, green areas, religious institutions and schools were statistically insignificant across both data sets (p > 0.05). It provides a robust basis for housing and urban development strategies. The stakeholders such as real estate developers, urban planners and policymakers are encouraged to incorporate these findings into housing policies, land value capture initiatives and urban planning frameworks to enhance residential property value and align with sustainable urban development goals. This study contributes original insights into single-family residential property valuation by integrating willingness-to-pay and transaction data, substantiating the determinants of property value.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-11
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2024-0189
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Real estate decision-making: precision in price prediction through
advanced machine learning algorithms-
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Authors: Mohammad A. Shbool, Rand Al-Dmour, Bashar Awad Al-Shboul, Nibal T. Albashabsheh, Najat Almasarwah
Abstract: This study aims to enhance real estate price prediction accuracy using advanced machine learning models, minimizing biases and inconsistencies inherent in traditional appraisal methods. By leveraging support vector regression (SVR) and gradient boosting machine (GBM), this study provides a data-driven approach to property valuation, improving decision-making for buyers, sellers and policymakers. This study also seeks to bridge the gap in machine learning applications for emerging markets like Jordan. This study’s research’s broader goal is to offer a transparent, efficient and reliable tool for property valuation that improves market efficiency and reduces transaction uncertainty. This study uses machine learning techniques – SVR and GBM – to predict real estate prices in Amman, Jordan. Data was collected from the Department of Lands and Survey, covering residential property sales from March 2023 to December 2023. The data set underwent preprocessing, including one-hot encoding for categorical variables and logarithmic normalization for skewed data. Hyperparameter tuning was performed using grid search, and an ensemble approach compared multiple algorithms. Performance was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and MAE. The findings were implemented into a user-friendly “PRICE IT” application for real-world application. The results demonstrate that SVR outperforms GBM in predicting real estate prices, achieving the lowest RMSE (0.31) and MAPE (25%). The most influential factors in price determination are property area, location and apartment type. The study highlights that machine learning models provide superior accuracy compared to traditional appraisal methods. The findings support the integration of data-driven valuation techniques in real estate markets, reducing reliance on subjective human judgment. A user-friendly application was developed to enable nontechnical users to estimate property prices, making the research practical and impactful. This study contributes to the growing field of machine learning applications in real estate by demonstrating the effectiveness of SVR and GBM in an emerging market context. Unlike previous research, it focuses on Amman, Jordan, where limited studies have explored advanced machine-learning models for price prediction. The study offers a practical, user-friendly valuation tool that real estate stakeholders can widely adopt. This research enhances decision-making and market efficiency by providing a transparent and objective alternative to traditional appraisal methods.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-07
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2025-0004
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Empirical forecasting of housing prices in Malaysia using ARIMA
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Authors: AbdulLateef Olanrewaju
Abstract: Housing provision is a fundamental driver of national development and economic prosperity. However, housing affordability remains a critical problem worldwide, affecting countries regardless of their level of development, whether developed, developing or underdeveloped. The housing price index (HPI) measures trends in residential property prices and provides valuable insights into market dynamics. This study aims to model and forecast the HPI in Malaysia. Accurate HPI predictions are essential for informing policy decisions, guiding investment strategies and ensuring sustainable housing market development. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to analyse historical housing price data for modelling and forecasting housing prices for different types. The accuracy and reliability of the models and forecasts were assessed using key statistical metrics, including variance (s²), log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion, corrected Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. The findings demonstrate that the ARIMA model improves accuracy in capturing seasonal and trend components in the Malaysian housing market, offering actionable insights for strategic decision-making. In addition, this research presents point and annual changes across different housing types that seek to offer a detailed view of price movements. By providing a reliable five-year forecast of the HPI, this study enables more informed decision-making in housing policy, investment strategy and financial planning. Policymakers can use these insights to stabilise housing markets, whereas investors and developers can anticipate market movements for better capital allocation. Homeowners and prospective buyers will benefit from understanding future price trends, allowing for more strategic decisions regarding property purchases or sales. The originality of the study lies in its ability to empirically forecast housing prices for various types of housing for the next five years. This provides valuable guidance for housing-related decisions. This research contributes to the growing literature on real estate forecasting in emerging markets and underscores the relevance of advanced time series models in navigating the complexities of dynamic housing markets.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-03-03
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2024-0199
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Capability readiness model for green design practices for affordable
housing delivery in Ghana-
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Authors: Titus Ebenezer Kwofie, Michael Nii Addy, Alexander Boakye Marful, Clinton Aigbavboa, Samuel Amos-Abanyie, Barbara Simons, Samuel Owusu Afram
Abstract: Creating green design capability readiness has become an emerging necessity toward increasing sustainable performance. However, the understanding of the green design readiness markers for housing delivery is lacking. The purpose of this study is to highlight a green design capability readiness model for affordable housing delivery. Through the use of the self-determination theory and the Technology–Organization–Environment framework, a comprehensive review of related literature revealed 23 indicators on motivational, technological, organizational and environmental markers for green design practices capability readiness for affordable housing delivery. Adopting a deductive design, a questionnaire was developed from these markers for a survey on practitioners with knowledge and experience in green design, sustainability and housing supply chain through purposive and snowballing sampling. Mean score analysis and fuzzy synthetic evaluation were subsequently used to develop the capability readiness model. This study affirmed the markers and revealed the top indicators in each of the markers. The markers subsequently accounted for 28%, 29%, 17.7% and 25.3% of green design capability readiness for affordable housing delivery. Accordingly, technological and motivational markers had the greatest contributions to green design readiness for affordable housing followed by environmental marker and organizational being the least. The findings of this study will contribute to developing the right motivations, technological capability and regulatory factors for green design practices to optimize the capability readiness for affordable housing delivery in Ghana. The model serves as a valuable resource that could be used to objectively align actions and gauge readiness for green design practices toward sustainability performance improvement in affordable housing delivery. It could also aid in benchmarking the readiness potential of future regulations, policies and motivations for green design practices, concepts and technologies for housing delivery.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-02-14
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2024-0184
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Understanding the residential search process in Indian context: analysing
decision dimensions for location choice set development-
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Authors: Preety Saini, Debapratim Pandit
Abstract: This study aims to comprehensively explore households’ residential search process by examining various decision dimensions – search tenure, housing typology, search criteria, information sources, search extent and search duration – and identifying factors influencing each. The study area includes Bidhannagar Municipal Corporation and Rajarhat Newtown. A retrospective survey was conducted with recently relocated households to investigate their search process. Based on a search process framework from literature, separate logit models were developed to analyse decision dimensions. The study identifies the influence of household typology, size, income, car ownership, origin and education, including travel attitudes, relocation reasons and urgency on decision dimensions. Key findings indicate that households use five dominant search criteria to orient themselves spatially, also affecting the search extent. Moreover, some households enter the housing market without housing typology preferences, exploring all options. Choice set development – a critical stage in residential location choice modelling – represents the outcome of household’s search process: the collection of potential locations considered before making a final selection. Traditionally, entire urban area is considered as choice set, but the study’s findings can inform screening rules to tailor choice set to household preferences. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively explore the housing search process in India, introducing novel factors like travel attitudes, relocation motivations and urgency. Instead of focusing on specific housing typologies, the authors investigate whether households enter the market with established preferences or not. The authors also examined search criteria households consider to define search space and its impact on search extent.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-02-06
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2024-0167
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Urban land values in Santiago: a time series assessment of the so-called
“Chilean Miracle”-
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Authors: Nestor Garza, Ivo Gasic, Clemente Larrain
Abstract: This paper aims to build a set of long-term, geographically controlled land value indices for Santiago de Chile, with which to test land rent theory predictions regarding macroeconomic impacts. This paper uses a geographic cluster approach to the Laspeyres estimator, weighted by the stock of available land plots and their market offers per zone, to create two quarterly land value indices for Gran Santiago during the period 1983Q4–2016Q2. Subsequently, this paper implements dynamic time series methods (Vector Error Correction) as a baseline to determine the effect of economic performance and interest rate on urban land values. The two land value indices are correctly predicted by economic and interest rate shocks, as theoretically expected. In addition, this paper found that land values grew faster-than-predicted during the period of the so-called “Chilean Miracle” (1992–1998), a situation associated in the literature with worsened housing affordability and socio-spatial inequality. The land value indices offer unprecedented time-series precision in tracking the long-term performance of real estate markets in a Latin American city, allowing us to produce short- and long-term (accumulative) time-series causality analyses.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-02-03
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2024-0183
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- The impact of reverse jeonse incidents on the risk of nonreturn of
security deposits: an empirical analysis of the South Korean housing
market-
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Authors: Jinbaek Park, Kiduk Park
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of reverse jeonse on the risk of nonreturn of security deposits in the South Korean housing market. Reverse jeonse refers to a situation where the market price of a jeonse contract drops below the agreed price, which increases the likelihood of landlords being unable to return deposits. The analysis uses data from 17 South Korean regions, covering apartments and multifamily dwellings from 2017 to 2022. Key indicators of nonreturn risk include leasehold registration orders, court auctions and jeonse deposit guarantee incidents. A panel regression model is applied to quantify the correlation between reverse jeonse incidents and the increased risk of nonreturn. The study finds that an increase in reverse jeonse incidents correlates with a higher frequency of leasehold registration orders, court auctions and deposit guarantee cases, particularly after 2021. Economic disruptions and policy changes exacerbated landlords’ financial burdens, highlighting the need for interventions to stabilize the jeonse market. The findings suggest strengthening jeonse deposit guarantee schemes and refining legal procedures to mitigate the risk of nonreturn. Policy recommendations include targeted interventions to stabilize the market and protect tenant deposits. This study fills a gap in existing literature by empirically linking reverse jeonse to the nonreturn of deposits and offering data-driven policy recommendations to ensure market stability and tenant protection.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-30
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2024-0159
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Economic policy uncertainty and housing prices: evidence from Northern and
Southern Europe-
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Authors: Nazif Durmaz, Shuyi Bian, Yihang Gu
Abstract: This study aims to examine the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on residential property prices across 10 distinct nations in Europe, specifically in Northern and Southern regions. The autoregressive distributed lag bounded cointegration test is used to carry out the empirical analysis. The findings reveal that there is a stable long-term cointegration between house prices and their determining factors, including EPU, in the 10 nations. The outcomes further indicate that EPU has negative long- and short-term effects on house prices, apart from Spain, where uncertainty has a significant positive effect. The sample period of nearly 40 years applied in this paper includes several business cycles, as well as the concluded global financial crisis, the Brexit process and the COVID-19 pandemic. These three important events potentially increased economic uncertainty across Southern and Northern Europe and the globe, thus making this study even more timely and vital.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2024-0157
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Drivers of housing financing in Kenya
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Authors: Hilary Mati Kilonzo, Moses Muriithi, Benedicto Onkoba Ongeri
Abstract: Housing finance is frequently difficult to provide in developing nations due to unstable macroeconomic conditions and a lack of supportive legal, technological and regulatory frameworks (Lea and Bernstein, 1996). Governments in these countries have, therefore, created a range of organizations and initiatives to improve the flow of capital to the housing market on a footing that is affordable to their populations given the household income levels (Ram and Needham, 2016). Housing, however, is by its very nature a significant investment requiring a considerable capital outlay at the onset (Dasgupta et al., 2014). This makes acquiring it challenging, particularly in underdeveloped nations where saving tendencies are quite low partly because of low-income levels (Keller and Mukudi-Omwami, 2017). As a result, many developing nations struggle with severe housing issues that lead to slums, overcrowding and related health issues. The theoretical model for analyzing housing finance in Kenya in this study incorporates both demand and supply aspects, drawing from Brueckner’s (1994) framework. This model divides factors influencing demand into certainty and uncertainty conditions faced by households. In terms of certainty, the model considers factors that households can predict reliably. First is income, households are assumed to have stable income, allowing accurate assessment of budget constraints and mortgage decisions. Second is interest rates. While interest rates fluctuate, the model assumes that households have information about current rates, enabling informed decision-making. Finally, existing housing costs, such as rent or mortgage payments, are treated as fixed and predictable, facilitating accurate budget planning. Conversely, uncertainty factors include future income, future interest rates and housing prices. Households face uncertainty regarding future income, which can impact their mortgage repayment ability due to job market changes or unforeseen events. The model does not predict future interest rate changes, which can affect the affordability of mortgages. Furthermore, future fluctuations in housing prices add uncertainty to the benefits of homeownership and mortgage debt. Due to these uncertainties, the model in this study assumes certainty conditions, focusing on households maximizing their utility. In Brueckner’s model, a utility function captures household preferences and well-being linked to consumption choices, specifically between housing (H) and nonhousing goods (N). The utility function helps determine optimal income allocation, influenced by income (M), prices (P) and return on savings (t). The utility maximization problem involves selecting optimal amounts of housing and nonhousing consumption while managing housing credit (C). The study confirms a significant long-run relationship between house finance and several macroeconomic variables, including interest rates on credit, inflation, unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP). The negative and significant error correction term indicates the presence of an equilibrium relationship, suggesting that the housing finance market in Kenya self-corrects swiftly in response to economic shocks. This efficiency could be attributed to increasing competition among financial institutions or a growing public awareness of housing finance options, implying a relatively well-developed market. Such responsiveness suggests that government policies aimed at influencing housing finance might have a quicker impact. For instance, introducing subsidies to reduce credit rates could rapidly boost housing finance activity (World Bank, 2019). However, the flip side of a fast-adjusting market is potential volatility, where rapid swings in economic factors could lead to significant fluctuations in housing finance availability, posing risks for both lenders and borrowers (Braun et al., 2022). Moreover, a rapid adjustment might not necessarily reflect a perfectly healthy market; it could indicate underlying issues like speculation or easy access to credit, potentially leading to bubbles or financial instability (Agnello et al., 2020). This study reveals key insights into the determinants of housing finance in Kenya, demonstrating a significant long-run relationship between housing finance and economic variables such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. The efficient adjustment of the housing finance market to economic changes suggests that government policies can rapidly influence housing finance, although this responsiveness also implies potential volatility and risks, including financial instability. Policymakers should, therefore, focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability and monitoring the housing market for signs of overheating. Encouraging competition among lenders and diversifying housing finance products can help ensure sustainable market adjustments. Credit interest rates show a modest but positive relationship with housing finance, suggesting that a stable lending environment could stimulate activity. Policymakers should manage credit availability to prevent excessive expansion and instability, enhancing financial inclusion and fostering competition in the banking sector. Inflation positively impacts housing finance, with rising inflation driving demand for real assets like housing. However, significant interest rate hikes by the Central Bank to combat inflation could reduce mortgage affordability. A flexible interest rate policy, along with targeted interventions like subsidized rates for first-time buyers, is necessary to balance market stimulation with inflation control. Unemployment’s negative impact on housing finance underscores the need for robust unemployment benefits and job training initiatives to support financial stability during job losses. Targeted housing finance programs for low- and middle-income earners can also improve mortgage accessibility. The positive correlation between GDP growth...
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2024-0139
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- The impact of the 2023 housing law on rental prices in Catalonia: an
empirical analysis using differences-in-differences-
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Authors: Fernando Pinto Hernández, Isabel Rodríguez Iglesias, Ana María Moreno Adalid
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to assess whether Catalonia’s 2023 Housing Law, aimed at controlling rental prices in high-demand areas like Barcelona, successfully reduced rental prices. By comparing pre- and post-policy trends in Catalonia with those of other Spanish regions, the study seeks to determine the effectiveness of the policy in achieving its stated objectives while accounting for external economic factors. This study uses a Differences-in-Differences methodology to evaluate the impact of Catalonia’s 2023 Housing Law on rental prices. Catalonia is treated as the experimental group, while other Spanish regions serve as the control. The model accounts for macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation and uses administrative data on actual rental prices to ensure precision. The approach allows for a robust analysis of whether the rent control policy effectively influenced rental price trends compared to the control regions. The findings suggest that while rental prices in Catalonia experienced a slight decline following the implementation of the 2023 Housing Law, the reduction was not statistically significant compared to other regions. Macroeconomic factors, particularly GDP growth and housing supply, played a more substantial role in shaping rental price trends than the rent control measure itself. The analysis is limited by the short post-treatment period (2023 to 2024), which may not fully capture the law’s long-term effects. Future research should extend the timeframe and investigate additional outcomes, such as housing quality, tenant mobility and broader socioeconomic impacts. The study highlights that rent control measures alone may not be sufficient to reduce rental prices in high-demand areas. Policymakers should integrate rent control with strategies to increase housing supply, such as incentives for new construction and urban planning improvements, to ensure sustained affordability. Rent control policies may provide short-term relief for tenants but risk being ineffective in the absence of a sufficient housing supply. A comprehensive policy approach is necessary to achieve long-term affordability, particularly for low- and middle-income households in high-demand urban areas. This paper offers empirical evidence on the limited impact of Catalonia’s 2023 Housing Law, emphasizing the importance of addressing structural issues like housing supply in conjunction with rent control policies. The study contributes to the ongoing debate on housing affordability and provides valuable insights for urban policymakers.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2024-0160
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Collateral effect of urban housing dynamics: a case of metropolitan cities
in India-
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Authors: Pavan Namdeo Ghumare
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to incorporate a broader set of influencing factors. It is aimed at providing practical insights for policymakers and urban planners to help create equitable and resilient urban areas that improve the quality of life for low-income residents. This study uses a modeling approach that integrates metropolitan open data to quantify housing expenses. This model evaluates housing affordability by incorporating 30 different criteria that impact household affordability, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis. It adopts a multidisciplinary approach, considering economic, social and environmental factors in assessing urban housing dynamics, thereby providing a holistic understanding of the complex factors that influence affordability. The research shows that considering multiple factors, including accessibility costs, gives a more accurate measure of housing affordability. Applying the model to Pune reveals the complexity of affordability issues beyond just income and housing costs. The model provides valuable insights for both academic understanding and practical urban housing strategies. The study’s originality lies in its multidisciplinary approach to provide a more holistic assessment of housing affordability. The research offers a novel method of analyzing housing affordability, which is often overlooked in traditional models. The findings hold value for urban planners and policymakers, providing them with actionable data to support equitable urban development and improved housing conditions for low-income populations.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2024-0148
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- The importance weights of Generation Z’s demand for product innovation
in single-detached houses in Thailand, using a modified analytical
hierarchy process (M-AHP)-
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Authors: Chunyarat Nititerapad, Sorranut Chetsurakul
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the importance weights of the demand for product innovation, specifically in single-detached house among Generation Z in Thailand. The significant quantitative research, analyzed using a modified analytical hierarchy process, involved a total of 400 Generation Z responses. These responses were categorized by two levels of house prices: up to US$150,000 and above US$150,000, with 200 people per price level. The data were then analyzed with Likert-scale questionnaire through the modified analytical hierarchy process model, providing valuable insights into Generation Z’s housing preferences. The results of this study indicate that the sample group with house prices up to US$150,000 prioritizes innovation that provides convenience, while the groups with house prices above US$150,000 prioritize security innovations. Generation Z’s top three innovations with highest demand in single-detach houses are related to security innovation. This study is advantageous for developers which can be used to plan and design homes for Generation Z customers. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to determine the importance weights of Generation Z’s demand for product innovation of single-detached houses in Thailand.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-10
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0110
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Factors influencing residential neighbourhood choices of renters in the Wa
municipality, Ghana-
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Authors: Samson Aziabah, Donkor Wanaa, Florence Abugtane Avogo
Abstract: The purpose of this research was to examine the social, economic, physical and environmental factors that uniquely influence the residential neighbourhood choices of renters. An understanding of these factors would help policymakers and town planners in urban planning decision-making. A cross-sectional survey approach covering four neighbourhoods in the Wa municipality was conducted to ascertain the critical factors that influence tenants’ choice of residential neighbourhood and the relative importance in that decision. Out of the 28 indicators, only 7 were critical to determining tenants’ choice of neighbourhood. The indicators that most influence renters choice of neighbourhood are availability of water, availability and reliability of electricity, quiet and peaceful neighbourhood, aesthetic impression of housing, access to schools, commuting costs to work and terrain of the neighbourhood. This study is confined to the Wa municipality in the Upper West region of Ghana, as such may not fully represent the preferences of renters in choosing residential neighbourhoods in other regions. The research recommends comparative studies across different regions to better understand regional disparities in the choice behaviour of renters. Understanding the diverse factors that influence residential neighbourhood choices can inform urban planners and policymakers in the effort to create neighbourhoods that cater to the evolving needs and preferences of residents. To this end, they can aim to provide access to potable water, electricity extension, roads, schools and transportation services to make the urban environment more liveable. By creating environments that align with residents’ priorities, municipalities can enhance community satisfaction and cohesion, and contribute vibrant, stable and sustainable urban living. The study has highlighted the need for important urban infrastructure and services such as availability of water, clean neighbourhoods, health facilities and transport services. It has brought to the fore that extended family pressure influences renters to locate away from relatives. Viewed from the African context where extended family ties are considered to be strong, it suggests that economic realities may be negatively impacting this relationship.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2025-01-10
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2024-0173
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2025)
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- Editorial
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Richard Reed
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp.569-572International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis2025-03-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2025-200
Issue No: Vol. 18, No. 3 (2025)
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- Economic conditions, climate change and housing affordability across US
states: the mediating role of interest rates in a panel data analysis-
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Authors: Afees Adebare Salisu, Kazeem Ovanero Isah, Abeeb Olatunde Olaniran
Abstract: The issue of housing affordability is a serious concern, as it affects households’ ability to cover housing expenses without sacrificing other essential needs. However, housing affordability is not solely dependent on economic conditions. The consequences of climate change, such as extreme weather events can worsen the housing crisis by reducing the supply of affordable housing and driving up costs. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how in addition to economic conditions, climate change affect the affordability of housing in the USA using state-level data covering the 50 states in the country. This study used a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate short- and long-term effects and analyzed economic periods before and after the global financial crisis. This study also divided the states into two regions, the hottest and coldest, to examine differences in housing affordability. The findings reveal some crucial facts about housing affordability concerning economic conditions and climate change. The study shows result that suggests better economic conditions lead to increased housing affordability, particularly in colder regions. Additionally, climate change positively affects housing affordability in the short term. Finally, this study confirms the important role of interest rates in the relationship between economic conditions and housing affordability. The review of existing works indicates that studies on housing concerning economic conditions and climate change at disaggregated levels are very scarce. As a result, this study pays attention to investigating the connection between housing affordability and economic conditions for 50 states in the USA. Additionally, this study makes some extensions by examining the role of climate change and how interest rates could mediate in the nexus given either improved or depressed economic conditions.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-12-25
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0084
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- No way out' The hurdles of exiting public rental housing in Kuala
Lumpur-
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Authors: Nurhayati Khair, Ainoriza Mohd Aini, Zafirah Al Sadat Zyed
Abstract: This study aims to identify the significant exit barriers encountered by tenants in public rental housing and analyze the moderating effects of sociodemographic factors on tenants’ decisions to leave public rental housing. This study applied a quantitative methodology. Questionnaire survey was used as its main instrument for data collection. Responses were gathered from 328 tenants in the Program Perumahan Rakyat (PPR) through stratified random sampling. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling partial least square (SEM-PLS). The findings reveal that housing availability and the exit programs by DBKL are the most significant factors influencing exit barriers. Tenant income also impacts their decision to remain, as available housing often does not match their income levels. Policymakers and relevant agencies should collaborate to help tenants increase their income, facilitating their transition out of public rental housing. This study is limited to the factors influencing the tenant from exiting PRH. Furthermore, the study specifically targeted those who rent public housing under DBKL administration may neglect the perspectives of other stakeholders, such as DBKL management, property owners and policymakers. Therefore, the findings are insufficient in representing tenants other than those under the DBKL’s administration. While the causes may be similar, the opinions and consequences would vary among other tenants depending on their socio-demographic profiles. This research offers a more comprehensive understanding of the exit barriers tenants’ encounter in PRH. The results gained from this study will assist policymakers in developing a more comprehensive initiative that will assist tenants in exiting PRH. DBKL can effectively engage PRH tenants to provide a strategic departure mechanism for better solutions. Furthermore, DBKL can offer aid in locating cheap housing options for tenants who may have limited access to information on the availability of such homes. This discovery will also be advantageous for prospective tenants who have been on the waiting list for several years, eagerly awaiting the vacancy of units previously occupied by other tenants. Furthermore, residents who successfully vacate public rental housing (PRH) will need to be considered for incentives to promote the success of the housing pathway. This will lead to the attainment of the equitable allocation that has been identified as the primary concern of PRH. This study seeks to clarify the exit barriers encountered by tenants in PRH and identifies the significant factors contributing to the low turnover rate of tenants. The study is relevant for DBKL and policymakers in promoting the success of housing pathways to ensure fairness and efficiency in the principles of public housing.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-12-18
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0104
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Examining Saudi Arabia’s housing tenure and price trends: a comparative
study with global context-
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Authors: Umar Lawal Dano
Abstract: This paper aims to analyze and compare housing tenure and model housing price index (HPI) in Saudi Arabia with selected Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) countries. The research uses quantitative data from the Saudi 2022 Statistical Census and OECD sources. Analytical methods include polynomial regression modeling for housing price trends and analysis of variance (ANOVA) to explore the relationship between housing variables, alongside descriptive and inferential statistics. The polynomial regression analysis reveals distinct HPI trends across the studied countries, indicating stability and growth. Countries like Australia, France and the US are projected to see substantial HPI increases by 2026, reaching values around 175, signaling strong market recovery and growth. Greece’s trajectory is marked by fluctuations, recovering modestly post-2020, while Saudi Arabia’s market shows stability with a slight increase forecasted to 92.8 by 2026. The ANOVA analysis for Saudi Arabia highlights significant regional differences in housing tenure, with economic conditions and housing types significantly impacting tenure patterns. This study fills a void in research by offering a comparative analysis of housing tenure and HPI, shedding light on how economic and demographic factors influence housing trends. The findings are crucial for policymakers to develop targeted strategies that address affordability and stability, catering to diverse demographic needs.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-12-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2024-0125
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Macroeconomic determinants of housing demand in Saudi Arabia: an
autoregressive distributed lag approach-
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Authors: Yusuf Opeyemi Akinwale, Ibrahim Abiodun Oladapo, Olawale Rafiu Olaopa, Dina Gabbori
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic factors influencing housing demand in Saudi Arabia using quarterly data for the period 2010 Q1–2024 Q2. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test and vector error correction model are used to determine the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic factors. The results reveal that the F-statistic value of 4.2043 is higher than the upper bound of the critical values at 5% level of significance, indicating long-run association among the series. While there is a negative and significant influence of interest and inflation rates on housing demand, income per capita and population have a positive and significant influence on housing demand. Similar result is found for the short run analysis except income per capita which has positive but insignificant impact. Moreso, the population seems to be very crucial to housing demand in both short-run and long-run periods. The outcome of the study has important policy implications by enjoining the policymakers in Saudi Arabia to consider a decisive management of monetary and fiscal policies to ensure that inflation and interest rates for housing are kept at a low level to encourage housing demand. Also, adequate policies should be put in place to ensure housing/property affordability that matches the increasing population due to tourism, urbanisation and growing birth rate. Studies on the macroeconomic determinants of housing demand are less explored as most studies dwell more on social and demographic factors despite the importance of macroeconomic factors towards house ownerships. There is a dearth of related studies in Saudi Arabia.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-12-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2024-0158
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The relationship between socio-demographic factors and housing
affordability in Saudi Arabia-
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Authors: Mubarak Faisal Alhajri
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the association between various demographic factors and housing affordability in Saudi Arabia. A questionnaire survey of households was undertaken, and responses were analysed using chi-square analysis and logistic regression. The study found that gender and job rank were only significantly related to housing value, but not to housing type, type of tenancy or number of bedrooms. Age, level of income, nationality, household size and job sector had significant associations with housing type, type of tenancy, number of bedrooms and housing value. However, the study did not find a significant relationship between the education level of the head of the household and any housing characteristics. The findings from the logistic regressions indicated that the level of income odds ratio (OR = 25.634), and the value of housing (OR = 0.037) were the two most significant predictors of access to affordable housing, both with levels of significance of p < 0.001. Even though this study has provided valuable findings and contributions to the literature and policymakers, certain limitations must also be highlighted. First, the study focused only on four housing characteristics: housing type, housing tenancy, number of bedrooms and housing value. It did not consider other housing characteristics, such as housing age and housing conditions, which also affect the affordability of housing. Second, the method adopted for this study has a limitation in terms of its sampling technique, namely, snowball sampling, which relies on each participant to recommend others based on their judgement and recommendation. Third, the sample size for this study was small. As a result, the generalization of these findings to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) will be limited. The current study’s findings will help decision makers in the housing sector to implement a housing delivery strategy that responds to escalating demand. It also contributes to the emerging body of literature by clarifying the relationships and influence between demographic factors and accessibility to affordable housing. In addition, the findings of this study support KSA’s ambitious Vision 2030, through which the government seeks to increase the rate of homeownership. The implications of the findings of this study also extend to help housing policymakers in similar developing countries where the delivery of affordable housing is a challenge. The study is relevant because it investigates the relationships of demographic factors and housing affordability in one of the three agglomerations in the country. It can thus provide insight into the increasing demand for housing, which can help the Saudi Government to design and implement a housing delivery strategy and can support KSA’s ambitious Vision 2030, which targets increased homeownership. It can also improve our knowledge on the emergent body of literature on the effect of demographic characteristics on the affordability of housing in the country, and in similar developing countries where the delivery of affordable housing is a challenge.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-12-03
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2024-0121
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Spatial heterogeneity in housing price-transaction ratios: a historical
analysis of Tehran-
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Authors: Mohsen Roohani Qadikolaei, Yaser Hatami, Sara Nikmard Namin, Ali Soltani
Abstract: This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between housing prices and transaction volumes in Tehran, a city with diverse socioeconomic and regional characteristics. This research addresses a critical gap in understanding the role of local spatial factors, which previous studies have often overlooked, focusing instead on macroeconomic variables. Using a data set of housing transactions of Metropolitan Tehran from 2010 to 2020 sourced from secondary data, this study uses generalized linear mixed models and spatial clustering techniques. These methods enable an examination of geographical clustering and the effects of local contextual variables on the dynamics between housing prices and transaction volumes. Results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity within Tehran’s housing market. Higher prices and transaction volumes are concentrated in the northern and western regions, influenced by factors such as employment rates, rental housing supply and the physical attributes of the housing stock. The findings suggest that macroeconomic policies alone are insufficient to address housing challenges in Tehran; targeted, localized interventions are necessary. This study’s reliance on secondary data and its focus on a single urban environment may limit the generalizability of the findings. Further research incorporating a wider range of local and macro variables could strengthen the applicability of the results across different contexts. This study underscores the need for region-specific housing policies that consider local economic, social and spatial conditions. Policymakers could improve housing affordability and accessibility in Tehran by implementing tailored strategies to address the distinct needs of different districts. This study offers a novel perspective by integrating spatial and contextual factors in housing market analysis, providing insights that challenge the traditional macroeconomic focus. The use of advanced statistical and spatial analysis techniques contributes to a deeper understanding of urban housing market dynamics.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-11-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2024-0118
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Spatial analysis of dependency culture resulting from exchange rate
fluctuations on herding behavior in Iran’s housing market-
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Authors: Vahid Nikpey Pesyan, Yousef Mohammadzadeh, Ali Rezazadeh, Habib Ansari Samani
Abstract: The study aims to examine the impact of cultural dependency stemming from exchange rate fluctuations (specifically the US dollar) on herding behavior in the housing market across 31 provinces of Iran from Q2 2011 to Q1 2022, using a spatial econometrics approach. After confirming the presence of spatial effects, the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model with Generalized Common Effects (SDM-DPD(GCE)) was selected from various spatial models for these provinces. The study examines the impact of cultural dependency stemming from exchange rate fluctuations (specifically the US dollar) on herding behavior in the housing market across 31 provinces of Iran from Q2 2011 to Q1 2022, using a spatial econometrics approach. After confirming the presence of spatial effects, the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model with Generalized Common Effects (SDM-DPD(GCE)) was selected from various spatial models for these provinces. The model estimation results indicate that fluctuations in the free market exchange rate of the dollar significantly and positively impact the housing market in both target and neighboring regions, fostering herding behavior characterized by cultural dependency within the specified timeframe. Additionally, the study found that variables such as the inflation rate, population density index and the logarithm of stock market trading volume have significant and positive impacts on the housing market. Conversely, the variable representing the logarithm of the distance from the provincial capital, Tehran, significantly and negatively impacts the housing market across Iranian provinces. Given that housing is a fundamental need for households, the dramatic price increases in this sector (for instance, a more than 42-fold increase from 2011–2021) have significantly impacted the welfare of Iranian families. Currently, considering the average housing price in Tehran is around 50 million Tomans, and the average income of worker and employee groups is 8 million Tomans (as of 2021), the time required to purchase a 100-square-meter house, even with a 30% savings rate and stable housing prices, is approximately 180 years. Moreover, the share of housing and rent expenses in household budgets now constitutes about 70%. The speculative behavior in this market is so acute that, despite 25 million of Iran’s 87 million population being homeless or renting, over 2.5 million vacant homes (12% of the total housing stock) are not used. Therefore, various financial behaviors and decisions affect Iran’s housing market. Herd behavior is triggered by the signal of national currency devaluation (with currency exchange rates increasing more than 26-fold between 2011 and 2021) and transactions at higher prices in certain areas (particularly in northern Tehran) (Statistical Center of Iran, 2023). Given the origins of housing price surges, a price increase in one area quickly spreads to other regions, resulting in herd behavior in those areas (spillover effect). Consequently, housing market spikes in Iran tend to follow episodes of currency devaluation. Therefore, considering the presented discussions, one might question whether factors other than economic ones (such as herd behavior influenced by dependence culture) play a role in the rising housing prices. Or, if behavioral factors were indeed contributing to the increase in housing prices, what could be the cause of this herd movement' Has the exchange rate, particularly fluctuations in the free market dollar rate, triggered herd behavior in the housing market across Iran’s provinces' Or has the proximity and neighborhood effect been influential in the increase or decrease in housing prices in the market'
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-11-18
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2024-0137
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Unveiling housing preferences amidst flood risks: an empirical study in an
emerging market-
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Authors: Hong Thi Bich Nguyen, Hiep Thanh Truong
Abstract: This study investigates the interplay between flood risk, financial constraints and buyer behavior in the housing market. It aims to discern how flood experience influences housing choices, particularly among financially constrained buyers. Using hedonic pricing models and probit analysis, this research examines the implicit prices of house characteristics and evaluates the determinants of housing choices, considering factors such as flood risk, financial status and past flood experience. The study underscores that lower house prices incentivize buyers to opt for homes in flood-prone areas, thereby increasing their vulnerability to flood risks. Consequently, financial constraints exacerbate this situation, compelling low-income buyers to accept higher flood risks. However, flood experience fosters risk awareness among buyers, encouraging them to steer clear of flood-prone areas, albeit with lesser efficacy among financially constrained individuals. This research contributes to the understanding of how flood risk and financial limitations shape housing decisions. It highlights the role of flood experience in influencing buyer behavior and emphasizes the need for targeted policies to mitigate flood-related risks in the housing market, particularly among economically vulnerable populations.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-11-12
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0079
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Factors influencing low-income citizens’ choice of Sharia-subsidized
housing credit in Indonesia-
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Authors: Haris Izzuddin Abdurrahman, Permata Wulandari, Karina Wulandari
Abstract: This paper aims to find several factors from religiosity aspects (perceived religiosity on property [PRP], perceived Islamic debt principle, perceived maqasid on homeownership, Shariah-compliant products [SCPs]) and financial aspects (mortgage repayment policy [MRP], well-versed bankers, perceived financial benefit [PFB], perceived risk), which influence the willingness of low-income people to choose Sharia-subsidized Kredit pemilikan rumah/mortgage (KPR) in Indonesia. Research data was obtained from 235 respondents and analyzed using the partial least square-structural equation modeling method. The research results show that PRP, SCPs, MRP and PFBs significantly influence the willingness to choose Sharia-subsidized mortgage. The practical implication that can be applied to increase the willingness of low-income people to choose Sharia-subsidized mortgage is by promoting it more massively with elements of community religiosity. Sharia banking as the bank implementing Sharia-subsidized mortgage can consider the financial benefits of the debtor by implementing payment policies that make it easier for customers who have financial difficulties, such as rescheduling and payment holiday policies so that public interest in choosing Sharia-subsidized mortgage increases, so the problem of housing needs in low-income people can find its solution.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-11-07
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0107
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The impact of the COVID-19 market shock on residential buyer preferences
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Authors: Christopher Cain, Daniel Huerta, Norman Maynard, Bennie Waller
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic market shock on house pricing, time-on-market (TOM) and probability-of-sale functions using local multiple listing service data from Richmond, Virginia, USA. The empirical analyses use a two-stage residual inclusion model to simultaneously address endogeneity and nonlinearity in modeling sales price and TOM, and a Heckman two-stage procedure to account for sample selection bias in estimating the probability-of-sale. The pandemic shock not only directly impacted average home prices, TOM and probability-of-sale, but it also caused the coefficients of some of the factors that influence these metrics to change while others were stable to the exogenous shock of the pandemic. The authors find that coefficients in the hedonic pricing, TOM and probability-of-sale models did not shift instantaneously; instead, the impact evolved over several months at the beginning of the pandemic until stabilization. The results should be of interest to buyers and sellers of residential properties, agents specializing in residential properties and researchers looking to better capture the impact of exogenous events on housing prices and buyer preferences.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-11-01
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2024-0134
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Examining surplus and shortage in occupied housing preference in Malaysia
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Authors: AbdulLateef Olanrewaju, Kai Sin Chai, Shalini Sanmargaraja, Zafarullah Nizamani, Soo Cheen Khor
Abstract: Housing sufficiency is a critical indicator of national development and growth. However, in most countries, housing affordability remains a significant challenge, leading to a mismatch between housing supply and demand. The purpose of this study is to investigate the housing preferences, current occupation and the resulting surplus and shortage across various housing types. Data were collected through a survey, and the analysis focused on quantifying the mismatch between preferred and occupied housing types. Results revealed significant disparities between housing preferences and current occupation, with some housing types experiencing surplus and others facing shortages. The findings uncovered a 23% discrepancy in housing demand and supply. The sensitivity results indicate that 30% of the respondents currently living in a particular type of housing unit would choose to live there if given the option. The specificity results show that 90% of respondents not living in a particular type of housing unit would continue to avoid choosing it. Housing price, income, ethnicity, race and location are the major drivers of the housing preferences. Developers can align their projects with consumer preferences to minimize surplus and shortages. Financial institutions may consider these insights when tailoring mortgage products to meet the diverse needs of potential homebuyers. This research provides a valuable foundation for strategic planning and policy formulation aimed at enhancing housing sufficiency and socioeconomic development in Malaysia. This study lays the foundation for future research and for incentive mechanisms for homebuyers and developers. The results are useful to policymakers, developers, banks, consultants, housing associations and academics.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-10-18
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2024-0126
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Forecasting residential real estate prices and energy usage in Flanders
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Authors: Alesia Gerassimenko, Lieven De Moor, Laurens Defau
Abstract: Currently, residential forecasting literature is limited with few to no forecasting papers that consider residential prices and energy consumption for the selling and rental market within a single study. The purpose of this paper is to study the prices and energy usage for both markets by combining an explanatory model with the predictions of a predictive model, which will lead to a better understanding of the forecasting results. This study presents an econometric comparison between 508,612 selling properties and 174,007 rental properties transacted in Flanders between January 2019 and December 2023. The authors study their prices and energy usage by combining the causal results of a hedonic price model (HPM) with the predictions of an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). The authors find that both markets are extremely sensitive to changes in related factors, whereby selling prices are primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors, but rental prices and especially energy usage are also sensitive to market standards. Policies that target energy efficiency can therefore steer its future trend. In addition, in line with previous literature, the HPM shows an increasingly strong relationship between residential prices and energy efficiency over the years, indicating that these steering energy policies also indirectly monitor residential prices. This study underscores the importance of integrating the results of an explanatory model with a predictive model. It demonstrates that combining them provides a more comprehensive understanding which is helpful for policymakers, real estate professionals and investors during their decision-making process.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-10-15
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0105
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Towards sustainable living: an investigation of the motivations behind
green residential ownership in Malaysia-
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Authors: Nor Nazihah Chuweni, Mohamad Haizam Mohamed Saraf, Nurul Sahida Fauzi, Nurulanis Ahmad Mohamed
Abstract: In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the number of green residential properties. This phenomenon indicates that the demand for environmentally friendly residential properties is rising. However, the true reasons behind the growing interest and investment in green residential properties remain poorly understood. When it comes to residential properties, assessing these benefits becomes more challenging and complex, as it is crucial to understand the motivations to invest in green residential properties. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify the component factors that motivate homebuyers to invest in green residential properties. This research aims to address a research gap by identifying the component factors that motivate individuals to invest in green residential properties using a factor analysis approach. The authors gathered data by distributing an online questionnaire among 161 certified green residential owners in Selangor, Malaysia. The results from the factor analysis revealed three components as the primary factors that motivate individuals to invest in green residential properties. The findings contribute significantly to the growing yet limited literature in this area of research. This research, however, set out to provide a context-specific motivation in Selangor as a limitation. By understanding the motivations behind these investments, the research can encourage greater adoption of sustainable housing investment and guide developers and policymakers in offering better solutions for the green property market. The authors could facilitate informed decision-making and inspire positive change towards a future where sustainable housing becomes the norm.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-10-02
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0087
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Consumers’ acceptance intention towards interest-free home financing:
decomposition approach of TPB model-
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Authors: Imran Mehboob Shaikh, Kamaruzaman Noordin
Abstract: This paper aims to determine factors that contribute to consumers’ intention to opt for interest-free home financing or mortgage adapting decomposition approach of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model. For this study, judgemental and purposive sampling was used and over 300 respondents who are using or willing to use equity-based Islamic mortgages were selected for analysis. According to the findings of this study, consumers’ intention towards the interest-free mortgage is influenced primarily by their attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control but also by the additional construct of their innovativeness of consumers as well as decomposed variables such as perceived relative advantage and perceived compatibility, but most importantly, peers. Overall, the study’s findings show that the suggested model clarifies a better knowledge of the factors that influence consumers’ choices to accept interest-free mortgage financing. Considering this research to be limited in terms of coverage geographically and the theory rendered the context should be given proper attention when interpreting future outcomes. Furthermore, future researchers can extend the direct relationship by using attitude as a mediator and also test adding a moderating variable when conducting a cross-sectional study. This work is mainly focused on consumers’ intention to use Islamic mortgages. Current research incorporates and validates consumer innovativeness and introduces decomposed variables, namely, peers, perceived relative advantage and perceived compatibility to the TPB model. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the decomposition of variables with the main predictors in the setting of an interest-free mortgage in Pakistan, the decomposition approach of the TPB model has not yet been attempted.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-10-01
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0076
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Bricks and sustainability: a look at how environmental variables impact
housing markets-
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Authors: Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Abstract: This paper aims to assess the interaction between environmental challenges and policy interventions in shaping housing prices. It emphasises the need to understand how policy interventions and environmental conditions can disproportionately affect housing affordability, population growth and building density, especially for vulnerable communities. The study uses a panel quantile ARDL regression model to thoroughly investigate the asymmetric impact on a sample of 16 UK cities spanning the period 2000–2023. The study reveals that pollution significantly impacts house prices, with cleaner areas experiencing faster price changes. Cleaner air pollution has a greater impact on property prices in cities with cleaner air. Climate policies and superior environmental technologies also influence consumer purchases. Addressing affordability has little short-term effect on house values, but building activity temporarily affects pricing. Investment in clean technology and climate action legislation may boost house prices and attract environmentally conscious individuals. Based on these findings, policymakers seeking equitable and sustainable housing outcomes should consider these finding. It proposes evaluating city environmental features, eliminating environmental inequities, encouraging clean technology, balancing affordability and environmental concerns, monitoring and lowering pollutants and supporting sustainable building practices. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to analyse how environmental conditions, regulations on environmental action and demand-supply affect housing prices in 16 major UK cities. The connection between these factors is also examined in 8 cities with high and 8 cities with extremely low pollution. The research seeks to explore how environmental issues affect policy interventions to promote sustainable and equitable housing development. The asymmetric impact is examined using a panel quantile ARDL regression model. If property values are asymmetrical, the government should enforce severe environmental laws.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-30
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0095
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The effect of demographic shift on property values in Japan
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Authors: Ti-Ching Peng
Abstract: Demographic transition, although gradual, has a profound impact on various socio-economic aspects of society, including the real estate market. Many countries, particularly Japan, are currently experiencing rapid population aging. While the rising participation of seniors in the labour market has helped to alleviate this demographic burden in Western societies, the question is whether, in Japan, the purpose of this paper is to examine if the return of elderly individuals to the workforce could mitigate the demographic pressures on the housing sector. Besides the conventional panel model, this study used the quantile panel method to evaluate whether the effect of this demographic shift remains consistent across property value ranges. This study considered a panel data set of 47 prefectures from 2006 to 2016 in Japan, focusing on weighted dependency ratios that account for the labour force participation rates of three elder age cohorts. This approach captures the shifting dynamics of the workforce, particularly as more Japanese retirees have re-entered the labour market in recent years. By applying the quantile panel model (Koenker, 2004), this paper explores whether the reduced demographic burden exerts varying impacts across different quantiles of property prices. The conventional and two weighted dependency ratios revealed their non-linear influence on different quantiles of property values in quantile panel models. The return of elderly labourers indeed mitigated the demographic burden given the weighted dependency ratios’ weaker negative influence on the property prices at Q90, compared to the conventional dependency ratio. However, compared to the conventional dependency ratio, the stronger positive effects of weighted dependency ratios on the prices at Q10 imply that the demographic debt associated with the working involvement of these inferior elders may pressure people, especially elders, to favour and buy cheap residences. The return of retirees to the workforce should be a good sign, given the shrinking labour force in Japan. As one of the few studies considering this demographic shift in measuring dependency ratios, this paper further evaluates its effect on different quantiles of property values in Japan. Unlike their Western counterparts, many seniors in Japan work out of financial necessity. It is found in this study that the demographic debt associated with the working involvement of inferior seniors may pressure people to favour cheap residences. These findings should give policymakers a better understanding of the housing market in this aging era.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0074
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks on housing prices in nine
emerging economies and their stabilizing capital controls-
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Authors: Trung Ba Nguyen, Chon Van Le, Tri Anh Duc Nguyen
Abstract: This paper aims to examine the dynamic spillovers of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shocks on real house price indices in nine emerging economies, namely China, Brazil, Thailand, Chile, Peru, Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Africa. The authors use the local projection method with a panel data set of these countries spanning from 2005Q3 to 2019Q4 to estimate local projections at each period rather than extrapolating into distant periods from a given model. A pure tightening monetary policy shock is associated with a decline in housing prices in the nine emerging markets. However, the optimistic information about the US macro-economic fundamentals that is embedded in the tightening announcement would increase housing prices. Therefore, the net transmission effects of the US policy rate shocks may be smaller than what previous studies reported. In addition, the authors also find that capital control actions executed by emerging countries are effective in mitigating the spillovers of the US monetary policy. First, the paper aims to investigate the effects of US monetary policy shocks on housing prices in emerging economies which have not received sufficient scholarly attention. Second, the analysis focuses on both pure monetary policy shocks and the Federal Reserve's information on economic fundamentals contained in its rate announcements. Third, the authors also assess the effectiveness of capital controls imposed by policymakers in emerging countries in mitigating the spillovers of US policy rate shocks on housing prices in emerging markets.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0089
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Understanding sociodemographic characteristics shaping the choice of large
homes: lessons from Turkish metropolises-
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Authors: Bilal Caliskan, Hatice Aysun Özkan Yazar, Abdulkadir Keskin
Abstract: In metropolitan areas experiencing rapid urbanization and housing production, the size of housing units emerges as a crucial factor to consider in housing policy formulation. This study aims to focus on Turkey, a developing country undergoing rapid urbanization and a construction boom in recent years, to examine households’ housing size preferences. Through a detailed analysis, this research delves into the causal relationships between income, education and housing size preferences. This study uses the Family Structure Survey in Turkey 2016 data set collected nationwide by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). To address potential endogeneity issues related to income and education levels in households’ choice of house size, an extended regression model is used. In addition, survey weights are applied to the statistical model to generalize the results of the study. The study demonstrates that household income correlates with an increase in house size, while household education is associated with a decrease in house size. Variables such as household age, composition and vehicle ownership are found to impact the choice of house size. Particularly, one-person and couple-only households tend to prefer smaller dwellings compared to others. Lastly, the results reveal that the influence of household composition on dwelling size varies according to household age. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the determinants influencing households’ housing size preferences within the framework of a developing country context, focusing on Turkey. It specifically offers insights into the causal impact of education and income levels on housing size preferences, as well as the intricate interplay between household characteristics in shaping these preferences.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-23
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0090
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Unveiling the drivers of sustainable housing choices among millennials in
emerging markets-
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Authors: Sharmila Devi R., Swamy Perumandla, Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore the complex interplay between technology, personal norms and emotional factors in shaping the sustainable housing choices of millennials in emerging economies. It integrates the model of goal-directed behavior, technology acceptance model and norm activation model, incorporating both self-interest and prosocial motivations. Key adaptations involve replacing perceived behavioral control with financial self-efficacy and substituting hedonic motivation for anticipated positive emotions. Moreover, it introduces location as a practical anchor. A quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive research design was used in this study. Data were gathered from a sample of 610 millennial residential real estate investors across Indian smart cities. A multistage stratified sampling technique was used to ensure a representative sample. For data analysis, partial least squares structural equation modeling was used. The analysis focused on hypothesis testing to examine the relationships between the constructs of interest. Bootstrap t-values and effect sizes were used to assess the significance and magnitude of these relationships, respectively. One of the key findings of this study was the establishment of significant positive relationships between awareness of consequences, ascription of responsibility and personal norms with behavioral intentions. This underscored the importance of personal ethical considerations in shaping intentions. Perceived usefulness and ease of use were found to significantly influence attitudes positively, highlighting the relevance of these factors in forming favorable attitudes toward behaviors. Attitude, subjective norms, financial self-efficacy and location played significant positive roles. However, negative anticipated emotions decreased desire. This illustrated the complex role emotions play in motivational processes. The study also revealed that subjective norms did not significantly contribute to shaping personal norms. This indicated a potential decoupling of societal expectations from personal ethical obligations in the decision-making process. This study offers actionable insights for both policymakers and real estate developers. For policymakers, the findings highlight the need to craft initiatives that go beyond mere awareness, instead fostering a deep sense of personal responsibility and environmental stewardship among potential homebuyers. For real estate developers, the emphasis on financial self-efficacy and location suggests a strategy shift toward designing sustainable homes that not only meet environmental standards but also align with buyers’ financial confidence and geographic preferences. Together, these strategies can drive a more widespread adoption of sustainable housing, making sustainability a tangible and appealing choice for millennials. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this empirical research study was one of the first studies that contributed to the literature by integrating the model of goal-directed behavior, technology acceptance model and norm activation model. This study thus offered a nuanced understanding of the interplay between normative influences, usability perceptions, ethical considerations and emotions in the context of behavioral intentions.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-23
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0093
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Pricing strategies in the Silicon Valley housing market: an update on TOM
and recent events-
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Authors: Wan-Hsiu Cheng, Shih-Chieh Chiu, Chia-Yueh Yen, Fu-Chang Yeh
Abstract: This study aims to explore the relationship between house prices and time-on-market (TOM) in Silicon Valley. Previous findings have been inconclusive due to variations in property characteristics. This paper highlights the discrepancy between listing and selling prices and identifies differences among housing types such as condominiums, detached houses and townhouses based on housing orientations and customer groups. Additionally, this study considers the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Fed’s interest rate policies on the housing market. The authors analyze 63,853 transactions from the Bay East Board of Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service during 2018 to 2022. The study uses a multiple-stage methodology, including a nonlinear hedonic pricing model, search theory and two-stage least squares method to address concerns relating to endogeneity. The Silicon Valley housing market shows resilience, with low-end properties giving buyers more bargaining power without significant price drops. High-end properties, on the other hand, attract more attention over time, leading to aggressive bidding and higher final sale prices. The pandemic, despite reducing housing supply, did not dampen demand, leading to price surges. Post-COVID, price correlations with TOM changed, indicating a more cautious buyer approach toward high premiums. The Fed’s stringent monetary policies post-2022 intensified these effects, with longer listing times leading to greater price disparities due to financial pressures on buyers and shifting dynamics in buyer interest. Results reveal a nonlinear positive correlation between TOM and the price formation process, indicating that the longer a listed property is on the market, the greater the price changes. For low-end properties, TOM becomes significantly negative, while for high-end properties, the coefficient becomes significantly positive, with effects and magnitudes varying by type of dwelling. Moreover, external environmental factors, especially those leading to financial strain, can significantly impact the housing market. The experience of Silicon Valley is valuable for cities using it as a development model. The demand for talent in the tech industry will stimulate the housing market, especially as the housing supply will not improve in the short term. It is important for government entities to plan for this proactively.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2024-0092
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Role of social influence in adoption of energy-efficient household systems
among Pakistani consumers: a quantitative study-
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Authors: Muhammad Muzummil Sibtain, Muhammad Hashim, Fausto Pedro García Márquez, Sajjad Ahmad Baig, Muhammad Nazam
Abstract: The adoption of energy-efficient systems is crucial for Pakistan to meet its growing energy demand and address its energy challenges. However, adoption of these systems in Pakistan is hindered by several barriers, including economic constraints, lack of awareness and social attitudes toward sustainable development. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore adoption of energy-efficient household systems and the associated social influence. The study incorporates social influence as a mediating factor to examine the relationships between awareness of consequences, perceived consumer effectiveness and attitudes toward the adoption of energy-efficient systems. A quantitative survey method was used to collect data from households from Faisalabad, Pakistan. A total of 203 valid questionnaires were received and data analyzed through SmartPLS 4 for structural equation modeling. The results revealed that awareness of consequences positively impacts compliance, social identification and internalization, while perceived consumer effectiveness has a positive relationship with social identification and internalization. Moreover, the positive association of social identification and internalization with attitude were supported but relationship of compliance with attitude was unsupported. The results may also be used to develop compelling marketing campaigns focusing environmental conservation and social influence for positive attitude development. The study contributes to theoretical literature by examining the empirical relationships between specific individual characteristics and societal pressure that play a critical role in shaping attitudes toward the acceptance of energy-efficient systems. Additionally, the study's findings offer actionable implications for policymakers and marketers, contributing to the development of targeted interventions for promoting sustainable consumption.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-09-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2024-0054
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Exploring the determinants of housing price bubbles in the Turkish
economy: a COVID-related framework-
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Authors: Ömer Tuğsal Doruk
Abstract: This study aims to explore a novel framework for housing price bubbles in the Turkish economy during the pandemic. It examines the probability of housing bubble formation relative to the pre-pandemic period and identifies possible determinants of housing bubbles in the Turkish economy. In this study, a two-stage novel estimation method is applied. In the first stage, bubble periods are identified through the right-tailed supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test. In the second stage, the determinants of these bubbles are identified, and the housing bubble determinants during the COVID-19 pandemic are compared to the pre-pandemic period. The findings indicate that there is an asset price bubble in the housing market during the pandemic period. Furthermore, mortgage credit expansion, mortgage credit rates and the depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the USD could increase housing bubble formation. However, housing sector sales to foreign investors do not contribute to housing bubble formation during the pandemic in the Turkish housing market. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to address the relative determinants of housing bubbles in an emerging market context during the pandemic.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2024-0073
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Do energy performance certificates influence time on market' An
exploratory research of the residential housing market in Flanders-
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Authors: Alesia Gerassimenko, Lieven De Moor, Laurens Defau
Abstract: Literature has already analysed the relation between a property’s time on market (TOM) and other housing characteristics, but few to none include the property’s energy performance certificates (EPC) and none make a comparison between the selling and rental market. This paper aims to address these gaps by studying the relationship between TOM, price and EPC in both markets. By introducing a combination of alternative tests, this study confirms a causal relation between TOM and price in the cross-sectional data. This allows this study to use a two-stage least square model and analyse 392,498 Flemish sale and rental properties transacted between 2019 and 2023. The results indicate that both sale and rental properties with higher prices increase the TOM by 4–6 days, and this effect is even stronger in the selling market when the value-added tax is included. This study also finds that EPC labels have a complex relation with the time on market. A-labelled properties tend to increase the transaction time between 10 and 54 days, but B- and C-labelled properties decrease TOM between 20 and 30 days. In addition, the poorer performing labels (E and F) react differently across markets because of market-specific policies. This paper provides novel insights by studying the relationship between TOM and EPC while also considering TOM’s endogenous relationship with the price. We control for these relationships in both the selling and rental market.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2024-0072
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Exploring housing supply dynamics and temporal modelling of residential
construction activities-
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Authors: Yu Zhang, Eric J. Miller
Abstract: This study aims to develop a modelling framework of housing supply dynamics within the context of urban microsimulation systems. Housing markets have witnessed substantial investigation over recent decades, predominantly concerning residential demand. However, comparatively limited attention has been directed towards comprehending the housing supply dynamics. Housing policy disconnects with the developers’ market behaviours, which leads to significant mismatch between the housing construction and affordable housing needs of the population. Research attention should be made in comprehending the residential construction market activities. To address this gap, this study developed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and analyzed the temporal evolution of housing construction. An ARDL model was developed to address the issue of temporal modelling of the housing supply. An empirical study was conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) based on a longitudinal housing starts data set from 1998 to 2020. The model integrates diverse variables, including macroeconomic conditions, property development costs, dwelling prices and opportunity costs. Notably, the model captures both the path-dependent effects stemming from supply market fluctuations and the temporal lag effect of influential factors. The findings reveal that the supply-side’s responsiveness to market condition alterations may span up to 18 months. The model has reasonable and satisfying performance in fitting the observed starts. The methodological foundations laid will facilitate future modelling of housing supply dynamics. This study innovatively separated the modelling of housing supply within the context of urban microsimulation, into two parts, the modelling of housing starts and completion. The housing starts are determined in a complex and regressive process influenced by both the micro-economic environment and the construction cost and housing market trends. Through the temporal modelling method, this study captures how long it would take for the housing supply to respond to multiple factors and provides insight for urban planners in regulating the housing market and leveraging various policies to influence the housing supply.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2024-0049
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Migration fears and housing affordability in France, Germany, the UK and
the USA and the mediating role of interest rate-
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Authors: Afees Adebare Salisu, Abeeb Olatunde Olaniran, Xuan Vinh Vo
Abstract: This study aims to contribute to the literature on migration by examining the nexus between migration-related fears and housing affordability in France, Germany, the UK and the USA using new datasets for migration-related fears. This study adopts the feasible quasi-generalized least squares approach wherein a predictor can be isolated in the estimation process. Thus, rather than specifying a multi-predictor model that may also lead to parameter proliferation, a single-predictor model (for the predictor of interest) is formulated while also accounting for other salient features resulting from suppressing other important factors that may not be of interest to the current study. Such salient features include persistence, endogeneity and conditional heteroscedasticity issues. Overall, the results show heterogeneous responses of housing affordability to migration fears across the four developed countries, as the latter deteriorates housing affordability in Germany and the USA and improves it in France and the UK. Similarly, the GFC makes housing less affordable in all four countries as low interest rate passes the mediation test in the nexus. The results, especially for low interest rates, are robust to different uncertainty measures. As is often the case with economic phenomena, no single model can capture all the factors influencing an economic variable. Thus, besides examining the nexus between migration fears and housing affordability, the authors also account for the role of GDP per capita, given the influence of population and income dynamics on housing affordability. However, incorporating GDP per capita alone does not substantially enhance the model’s ability to predict housing affordability. Future research should explore additional macroeconomic and social factors, such as human capital development, to further enhance this subject. The findings have significant implications for policymakers regarding the use of low interest rates to counteract the adverse effects of migration-related fear on housing affordability. Specifically, to mitigate the potential negative impact of migration and the associated fear on housing affordability, monetary authorities could adopt a more accommodative stance on mortgages. By allowing real estate investors to obtain loans at lower rates, this approach would help increase housing supply and reduce the housing gap exacerbated by migration influx. The values of this study lie in its examination of housing affordability in relation to migration fears from both the demand and supply sides of the market. Furthermore, the analyses are conducted to cover out-of-sample forecast evaluation as in-sample predictability may not guarantee out-of-sample prediction.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0077
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Home boundaries: a socio-spatial analysis of Cairo’s housing market.
Using justified plan graph (JPG) theory-
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Authors: Aya Yasser Kamal, Rania Nasreldin
Abstract: This paper aims to define the socio-spatial considerations of apartment users in Cairo, during their decision-making process. It provides a set of socio-spatial guidelines for professional architecture designers that are based on regionalist sociological theories and the evaluation of participant responses. These guidelines can also help users choose better plan configurations or make socially conscious adjustments as formal residential interiors in Egypt are not arranged based on social interaction at home or the cultural specificity of the region. On the other hand, users have little clue about choosing better plan configurations for sustainable social relationships. Moreover, the private housing sector has mostly neglected the social boundaries that traditionally shaped home interiors. This is because the designers focus on physical attributes to satisfy market demand and economic aspects. The research reviewed past literature on the impact of different home arrangements relative to inhabitant and social relationships. Simultaneously, preliminary open-ended sorting surveys were undertaken at the Cityscape 2020 exhibition. Based on the results, a comprehensive online survey was developed to map the socio-spatial preferences of users. Finally, a sample of 150 apartment plans was analyzed by using the justified plan graph (JPG) theory to reveal the most common arrangements in the speculative market, measuring unit depth. The findings of this study will benefit the following: practitioners, including architects and real estate developers, will be able to learn about end-user preferences and offer better products (residential units). Designers can rely on a reference that visualizes recommended home arrangements in the form of justified graphs. This research will expose the academic theories that currently shape residential plans and those that are overlooked and need to be applied. Academics, on the other hand, will learn about the market, and the extent of the influence of architectural theory. The value of this paper lies in the gathering of theoretical recommendations on traditional home arrangements and investigating the preferences of both professionals and laypeople when choosing between apartments. The open-ended study in this research will test its efficiency in the Egyptian context and serve as a reference for future social studies. It highlights the importance of cultural adequacy and how to design homes related to local residents’ natural lifestyle, by doing so, people will be able to overview the options available in the market and how to manipulate their own houses to control or encourage different social interactions.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2024-0035
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Does urbanization drive up housing prices' Novel evidence from remote
sensing and dynamic panel quantile regression-
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Authors: Hoang Long, Pham Trung-Kien
Abstract: This study aims to quantify the influence of urbanization on housing prices at the district-based level, while also investigating the heterogeneous impacts across different quantiles of housing prices. The study uses remote-sensed spectral images from the Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite to measure urbanization, replacing prior reliance solely on urban population metrics. Subsequently, the two-step system generalized method of moments is used to evaluate how urbanization influences district-based housing prices through three spectrometries: Urban Index (UI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and Built-Up Index (BUI). Finally, this study examines the heterogeneous impacts across various housing price quantiles through Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression with non-additive fixed effects under Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The study demonstrates that urbanization leads to an increase in regional housing prices. However, these impact magnitudes vary across housing price quantiles. Specifically, the impact exhibits an inverse V-shaped curve, with urbanization exerting a more pronounced influence on the 60th percentile of housing prices, while its effect on the 10th and 90th percentiles is comparatively weaker. This study uses a novel method of remote sensing to measure urbanization and investigates its effects on housing prices. Furthermore, it provides an empirical application of non-additive fixed effect quantile regression for analyzing heterogeneity.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2024-0081
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Impacts of macroeconomic factors during COVID-19 pandemic on property loan
impairments and overhang: case study of Malaysia-
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Authors: Woei-Chyi Chai, Kuen-Wei Tham, Chin Tiong Cheng, Kim Wing Chong, Kai Yun Yeoh
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the global economy, disrupting supply chains, causing job losses and altering consumer demand. In Malaysia, the real estate sector has been notably affected, with increased property impairments and overhang due to unprecedented uncertainty. Understanding these effects is crucial for policymakers and investors to prevent real estate and banking crises. This study aims to analyse the relationships between macroeconomic factors during the pandemic on property impairments and overhang, providing insights for maintaining macroeconomic stability. The findings will inform strategies for mitigating economic shocks, identifying opportunities, and guiding real estate policies in Malaysia and potentially globally. This research article uses a time series ARDL regression analysis to examine pivotal macroeconomic factors including income, housing process, interest rates and unemployment on property loan impairments and property supply overhang in Malaysia. ARDL is effective to measure and analyse time series data, especially to understand the lagged impacts of macroeconomic factors. This can be seen by various economists in analysing macroeconomic factors affecting non-performing loans or the real estate finance using regression analyses both in Malaysia and other regions. The observations are gathered before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, spanning a five-year period with monthly frequency from 2018 to 2022. The study emphasizes the critical importance of effectively managing unemployment and implementing policy interventions, such as moratoriums, to stabilize the economy and reduce the risk of loan impairments during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this study highlights a significant inverse relationship between income per capita and loan impairments, underscoring the necessity for policies that promote economic growth and income equality. Initiatives targeting job creation, education and skills development can elevate income levels, thereby decreasing loan impairments. Lower lending interest rates during the pandemic also help mitigate the risk of loan impairments by facilitating borrowing, stimulating economic activity and enhancing financial well-being. Furthermore, the study suggests that while lower interest rates incentivize property developers and investors, understanding the intricate interaction between housing prices and supply is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to effectively manage the housing market and ensure adequate housing supply, especially during crises. This paper provides insight for policymakers, regulators, investors and property consultants into the dynamic effects of key macroeconomic factors amidst a global recession in how they impact the real estate market with regards specifically to all types of property loan impairments and property supply overhang. The observations are limited to the COVID-19 period, spanning five years with monthly data from 2018 to 2022. This understanding can facilitate the development of targeted strategic monetary policies and investment decisions in case of future recessions. Policymakers should prioritize initiatives such as moratoriums and job creation programs to mitigate economic downturns. Additionally, financial institutions need to adjust lending practices in response to lower interest rates, while stakeholders in the housing market must understand the complex dynamics between housing prices and supply to ensure a balanced market. Overall, addressing underlying economic factors and implementing targeted policies are essential for building resilience and promoting sustainable economic growth amidst challenging circumstances. Initiatives aimed at fostering income equality, creating employment opportunities and ensuring housing accessibility contribute to greater social cohesion and well-being. By promoting financial inclusion and building resilience to crises, societies can mitigate the adverse social impacts of economic challenges such as unemployment and housing affordability. Overall, addressing socioeconomic disparities and promoting inclusive growth are essential for fostering a more equitable and resilient society. The originality and uniqueness of this study lie in its comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on loan impairments and housing supply. While previous studies have focused on the pandemic’s effects on specific segments of the real estate market or property prices, this study provides a broad overview of its impact on property loan impairments and housing supply overhang. Finally, this study highlights the social and practical implications. Overall, this study offers a distinctive analysis of COVID-19’s impact on the real estate market and its implications for policymakers, real estate professionals and investors.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-12
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2024-0056
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Analysing the home buyers’ purchasing behaviour in Bengaluru during the
post-COVID-19 pandemic era through structural equation modelling-
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Authors: Srinivasa Reddy N.S., Sujata Khandai
Abstract: Housing is one of the basic necessities of humankind for survival and purchasing a home is often a substantial milestone. Individuals exhibit complex behaviour influenced by various factors while making decisions related to the purchase of residential properties. While most of the earlier studies have focused on understanding the purchasing behaviour of home buyers’ in developed countries, the research is limited on this topic in developing countries such as India. The booming information technology industry has rapidly increased the demand for residential properties among the migrant population in Bengaluru, India’s largest technology hub. Real estate developers strive to meet the requirements of prospective customers through innovative ways but face challenges in a competitive market. It is essential to understand the factors influencing home buyers’ purchase attitudes for increasing property sales. However, a lack of research on this subject is identified in the emerging city of Bengaluru. This study aims to analyse the determinants of home buying decisions for potential investors in Bengaluru through structural equation modelling to provide insights for the real estate industry to construct houses as per their customers’ needs. It was found that housing amenities, financial aspects, location conveniences and marketing services significantly influenced home buyers’ purchase decisions, whereas housing features do not. The findings of this study offer valuable insights for governmental bodies to implement appropriate policies and for builders to design properties with features that cater to the target population, thereby promoting sustainable growth in the real estate industry.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2024-0070
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Navigating real estate purchase decisions: an interplay of influential
factors-
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Authors: Asha Jaisy Sam, Benny Godwin J. Davidson, Jossy P. George, Peter Varghese Muttungal
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between social trends, peer influence, personal attitudes regarding real estate purchase decisions, perception of long-term property value and the mediating effect of hedging in influencing property and real estate purchases. Using a combination of quantitative surveys, this study aims to provide a comprehensive knowledge of the factors influencing real estate buying decisions. Data were obtained from 399 young consumers in four Indian cities. Using structural equation modeling, the suggested conceptual framework is examined. The study’s findings suggest that attitude plays an important role in influencing real estate purchase decisions. Young adults also tend to look for long-term gains or value when purchasing a home. Developing durable products for the customers is the best way to grow business, according to the results. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that examines the role of sentimental, personal and financial factors in real estate purchase decisions. The study provides insights into how these factors interact and affect the decisions of consumers in real estate. The authors hope that the findings will be useful for real estate professionals to better tailor their services to meet the needs of their customers.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-08-05
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2024-0062
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- A review on American senior housing and financing decisions
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Authors: Wei He, Wenqing Gao, Shaomeng Jia
Abstract: The world population is getting older and housing decisions matter to the security of retirement life and well-being. However, senior housing and financing decisions are largely overlooked in the literature. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the senior housing and financing decisions in the USA. Using 2021 American Housing Survey data and ordinary least squares estimates, this paper studies senior housing and financing decisions in the 15 most populous US metropolitan areas. Multiple regressions are used to analyze the whole sample as well as various subsamples. This paper finds strong evidence that seniors are more likely to own a house with a higher market value compared with nonseniors. More specifically, although race and gender do not matter in this relationship, it is less pronounced among those with higher education. Also, seniors, especially white senior homeowners, are more likely to have a lower mortgage debt burden due to a higher upfront down payment than nonseniors. Last, seniors are more likely to refinance their homes and receive cash than nonseniors. Constrained by the data limitations, this study specifically focuses on seniors’ housing and mortgage decisions. Future research could involve exploring seniors’ mortgage decisions by considering factors such as mortgage loan terms, borrower credentials and the evolving landscape of the senior housing market, among other aspects. The findings would help policymakers and contractors in the construction industry better understand the uniqueness of challenges in the senior housing market and develop effective housing policies and programs that cater to the needs of the elderly. A comprehensive understanding of the senior housing market would also help seniors make informed purchase and financing decisions. The authors propose providing financial education to the elderly, particularly those of disadvantaged status, to improve their expertise and bargaining skills in the mortgage loan application process. This paper contributes to understanding the dynamic senior housing market, which encounters challenges and opportunities associated with the aging population. The study fills the gap of limited research regarding seniors’ housing decision and their financing choices in the USA and would help policymakers and contractors in the construction industry develop effective housing policies and programs that cater to the needs of the elderly.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-30
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2024-0057
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Housing finance inaccessibility for Saudi Arabia’s low-income employees:
are housing-related sustainable development goals 2030 under threat'-
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Authors: Raed Khamis Alharbi
Abstract: In developing countries, including achieving Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) Vision 2030, housing loans for low-income employees are challenging and may thwart housing-related sustainable development goals (SDGs). Studies investigating housing finance inaccessibility for KSA Vision 2030 low-income earners and its impact on achieving housing-related SDGs are scarce. Hence, this study aims to investigate KSA housing financial inaccessibility and its effect on housing-related SDGs. Also, it offered suggestions for achieving housing provision in Vision 2030 and, by extension, improving housing-related SDGs. The study adopted a virtual interview approach and covered Alqassim, Riyadh and Medina. The researcher engaged 24 participants who were knowledgeable about KSA’s housing finance and SDGs. They include selected low-income earners, academicians, financial operators and government ministries/departments/agencies. The study manually analysed the collated data through a thematic approach and presented the main themes. Findings reveal that KSA’s low-income earners’ housing finance inaccessibility threatens Vision 2030 and housing-related SDGs. Inadequate funding of the Real Estate Development Fund, inability to make down payment, absence of collateral, insufficient household income and failure to recover the loan and associated charges from the auction were perceived major issues contributing to low-income earners’ house-loan rejection and recommended measures to improve achieving housing-related SDGs. The study investigated the factors contributing to low-income earners’ housing loan rejection and its impact on achieving KSA’s Vision 2030 and housing-related SDGs from the participants’ perspective. The findings reveal that low-income earners’ housing finance accessibility has been compounded by the slow recovery from the post-COVID-19 pandemic.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-30
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2024-0071
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Homeownership through home financing in Malaysia: an empirical
investigation-
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Authors: Hanudin Amin
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine asnafs’ acceptance of home financing in Malaysia. This work developed and introduced the maqasid theory of consumer behaviour (MTCB) to examine the effects of educational programmes, mortgage welfare, consumer justice and Islamic debt policy on receptiveness. Data analysis involving 733 respondents was conducted using partial least squares (PLS), where SmartPLS4.0 software comes into play. In the core model, the effects of the MTCB’s variables helped shape the development of asnaf home financing acceptance. This study was based on quantitative data and geographical constraints. The findings provide valuable inputs for the Joint Committee Body (JCB), combining Islamic banks and State Islamic Religious Councils to develop action plans for improving the facility offered. This work functioned as a social benchmark for improving Islamic home financing that includes asnafs’ homeownership. A new conceptual framework for asnaf home financing drawn from MTCB is developed in the context of asnafs’ homeownership.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-29
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2024-0066
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Decoding the puzzle: exploring the factors influencing homeownership in
Togo-
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Authors: Tchablemane Yenlide, Mawussé Komlagan Nézan Okey
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the factors influencing households housing tenure choices in Togo. The authors applied a rigorous econometric approach, using Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey (EHCVM) data from 2018 and 2021 to construct a longitudinal panel, and Unified Basic Welfare Indicators Questionnaire (QUIBB) data from 2006, 2011 and 2015 to construct a pseudo-panel. The study reveals that a household’s life-cycle variables like age of the household head, marital status, household size and place of residence, have a significant influence on homeownership. In addition, households in the highest wealth quartiles and used heads of household are more likely to own their home. Housing policies focused on improving the financial sustainability of low-income households and reducing the transaction costs associated with property acquisition are essential to promoting homeownership. As part of the implementation of the Government Roadmap 2020–2025, the government has committed to providing 20,000 affordable social housing units, aiming to significantly boost the supply of decent housing. However, the findings of this study highlight the need for targeted subsidy programs for low-income households, particularly for female-headed households and those living in urban areas. These subsidies could cover part of the cost of purchasing homes. For middle-income households, it is crucial to develop suitable financing mechanisms, such as low-interest mortgages and loan guarantees. Given demographic pressures and the high cost of public housing programs, promoting self-build remains essential. This support should be accompanied by the provision of low-cost building materials and technical training in innovative, sustainable construction methods. Additionally, improved access to employment and land regularization are essential prerequisites for the success of these initiatives. Research on the determinants of tenure choice is relatively limited in sub-Saharan Africa due to the unavailability of housing survey data. This paper proposes a case study of Togo, whose housing market characteristics correspond to most sub-Saharan African countries. Furthermore, this study applied two methodological approaches commonly used in dynamic analyses, thereby enhancing the robustness of the findings.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2024-0060
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Different factors affecting the real estate market in the Egyptian context
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Authors: Nada A. Mustafa, Ghada Farouk Hassan, Mohab Abdel Moneim Elrefaie, Samy Afifi
Abstract: Real estate projects are capital-intensive and deeply intertwined with economic factors, making them subject to various influences besides local housing needs. This paper aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, examining real estate cycles, driving factors and their correlation and scale of impact. The study conducts a literature review to explore real estate cycles and their driving factors, along with the relationship between real estate and macroeconomic cycles. It then delves into the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, followed by a time series analysis that incorporates five key indicators: economic indicator, demand indicator, supply indicator, capital flow indicator and cost indicator over a 12-year interval (2012–2023), to examine short-term cycle factors, followed by correlation and multi-linear regression analysis to elucidate interrelations among these factors. Through measuring and comparing the prementioned indicators with different economic and social events, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the macroeconomic environment and the real estate cycle in Egypt. Where demand has been found to be more sensitive and directly affected by macroeconomic factors than the supply. With the economic factor as the factor with the highest impact, especially in times of economic fluctuations, the impact has been immediate and short-term. These findings support the idea that the demand in Egypt is speculative, laying a threat of longer recession periods in the long term and having greater and more direct impact. This paper contributes to the understanding of the Egyptian real estate market by integrating insights from real estate cycles, macroeconomics and specific market dynamics. The application of time series, correlation and multi-linear regression analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the interplay between several factors shaping the real estate cycle. Ultimately, the findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers involved in urban development planning, facilitating more informed and precise decision-making processes.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-11
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2024-0044
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Short-term rentals and residential rents: evidence from a regulation in
Santa Monica-
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Authors: Cayrua Chaves Fonseca
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the relationship between Airbnb and long-term residential rents, using Santa Monica, California, as a case study. In 2015, Santa Monica adopted the home sharing ordinance (HSO), a stringent regulation aimed at restricting short-term rentals (STR). This research examines the implications of this ordinance on the local housing market. The synthetic control method (SCM) is applied to a panel data set comprising Airbnb listings and residential rents from multiple cities in Los Angeles County. This approach is used to estimate the causal effects of Santa Monica’s HSO on two outcomes: Airbnb listings and residential rents. The empirical results show a 60% reduction in Airbnb listings in Santa Monica within two years of implementing the ordinance. Despite this significant decrease, the effect of the regulation on rents was not significant. Suggestive evidence indicates that the ordinance’s ineffectiveness in increasing the number of houses allocated to long-term tenants may have contributed to its negligible impact on rental rates. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this research is the first to use the SCM for evaluating the impact of STR regulations. It offers crucial insights to policymakers on regulating platforms like Airbnb. The study reveals a scenario where a marked decrease in Airbnb activity did not lower residential rents, highlighting the need for context-specific evaluations in understanding the housing market’s dynamics. Additionally, these findings are valuable for investors considering the implications of regulatory changes in the STR sector.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0001
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Critical success factors in Malaysian housing projects: examining
contractual, process and human management with knowledge sharing
moderation-
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Authors: Adilah A. Wahab, Siti Aisah Bohari, Wei Chyi Sheng
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the importance of contractual management (CM), process management (PM) and human management (HM) factors as critical success factors (CSFs) in Malaysian housing projects. Additionally, it delves into the moderating influence of knowledge sharing (KS) on the relationship between HM and project success. This study used a survey-based instrument to collect data from a total of 133 G7 class contractors. The stratified sampling method was used for data collection. Subsequently, structural equation modeling with SmartPLS was used for model evaluation. The findings of this study indicate that CM, PM and HM exhibit significant relationships with housing project success. Furthermore, the research reveals that KS acts as a moderator in the relationship between HM practices and the success of housing projects. Although this study identified a significant relationship in explaining CSFs for housing project success in Malaysia, it only considers internal CSFs such as CM, PM and HM. It is suggested that future research incorporate external factors such as political support, national policy, currency stability and industry structure to provide a more comprehensive understanding of housing project success. The results provide supportive evidence that CM, PM and HM are important CSFs in the success of housing projects. This finding is consistent with relational contractual theory, systems theory and social interaction theory. Moreover, the research underscores the nuanced impact of KS, serving as a moderating factor in the association between HM and project success. Consequently, these outcomes substantiate the applicability of the socialization, externalization, combination and internalization framework within the construction sector, particularly within the sphere of housing sector.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-07-05
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2024-0028
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Compared predictions of a consumption and a normative criterion of housing
affordability in two mid-sized Canadian cities over time-
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Authors: Alan G. Phipps
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to theorize and measure a consumption criterion of housing affordability and then to compare its predictions with those of a normative criterion over time. The new consumption criterion of housing affordability is quantified with predicted compensatory expenditures that a resident would pay to upgrade to their most preferred home. Its predictions are compared with those of the most popular normative criterion that predicts unaffordability if a resident spends more than a proportion such as 30% of their income on housing. This study uses census and experimental data for owner-occupiers in two mid-sized Canadian cities between 1987 or 2001 and 2020 or 2021. These data are mapped and statistically analysed for comparing the predictions of the two criteria. The study’s primary finding is that both criteria predict improved affordability of owned homes over time. Secondarily, however, the consumption criterion predicts worse unaffordability for the minority experiencing this. It furthermore clarifies their budgets for housing as more constraining than their social utilities that they may have already revised toward affordable home attributes. Indisputable unaffordability after the end of the study period may have nullified the originally recommended sacrifices for residents upgrading to their most preferred owned home. The study is original because it demonstrates that a new consumption criterion of housing affordability subsumes the popular normative criterion if plausible assumptions are made about a homeowner’s choices. It then proceeds to speculate how this new criterion might refine the normative criterion with predicted compensatory expenditures for a resident’s affordable preferred homes.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-06-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2024-0042
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Testing the relationship between housing prices and inflation in the OECD
countries-
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Authors: Aliyu Akorede Rufai, Raymond Liambee Aor, Afees Adebare Salisu
Abstract: This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic nexus between inflation and housing prices by estimating the short- and long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation for 15 OECD countries from 1980Q1 to 2022Q4. Furthermore, the authors examined this association using the core and headline inflation and price-income and price-rent ratios as proxies for inflation and housing prices, respectively. The authors use the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing prices and inflation to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries, estimate various short-run and long-run dynamics cum separate analyses for turbulent and calm periods in the relationship between housing prices and inflation. Changes in housing prices have a greater impact on core inflation than headline inflation. Overall, the authors establish a positive (negative) relationship between housing prices and core inflation in the long run (short run) based on alternative proxies of housing prices. However, this connection tends to be less significant for headline inflation and episodic over smaller samples, as it seems stronger during calm periods than turbulent ones. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to examine the association between housing prices and inflation by demonstrating how these variables behave during calm and turbulent periods.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-06-24
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2024-0020
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Monthly seller’s bargaining power index constructed using
open-source data-
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Authors: Xingrui Zhang, Shuai Xu, Yunpeng Wang, Eunhwa Yang
Abstract: A tangible representation of the housing market hotness, namely, the index derived via Carrilo 2013’s concept, is widely used but difficult to construct, as it requires listing data of a geography which is not only inaccessible but also cumbersome to summarize. The purpose of this paper is to serve as a methodological extension of Carrilo 2013, presenting a process by which the seller’s bargaining power index can be easily constructed using open-source data. The seller’s bargaining power index was first constructed using the open-source data by Zillow Research. Then, results verification approach including visualization, Pearson correlation test, Granger causality test and linear regression were used with the goal to generate empirical evidence and verify if the constructed index conforms with established relationships derived in past work, thereby substantiate accuracy of the constructed index. Monthly seller’s bargaining power index was constructed for US as a whole and 250 metropolitan statistical areas through an automated process. The constructed index conforms with established evidence in terms of seasonality, trend and magnitude. The index also forms positive correlation with building permit/housing value/housing value increase rate, and negative correlation with inventory. It requires the explanatory power of multiple linear features to simulate the parameter. Seller’s bargaining power index at a national level can serve as a general indicator of economic strength, in parallel to number of building permit, housing starts and real gross domestic product. Quantitatively, the housing market of the USA is as “hot” during the COVID-19 pandemic as it was in the years before 2008. A healthy housing market appears to be one in which 75%−80% of the deals are in favor of the seller (take-it-or-leave-it). When said percentage reaches 90%, the market should be considered to be in a “bubble.” This paper provides an easy pathway for future studies to simulate housing market hotness, and bring upon the benefit of convenience at low cost and in monthly frequency rather than quarterly or annually.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-06-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0014
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Is it your neighbors or the neighborhood making you sick' Lifestyle, built
environment, and COVID-19 transmission-
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Authors: Geoffrey K. Turnbull, Robert Salvino, Phillip K. Njoroge, Sourav Batabyal
Abstract: This paper examines the early pandemic experience in a large metropolitan area to differentiate the roles of the lifestyle and built environment factors associated with differing case rates across neighborhoods. This paper develops a simple empirical methodology for sorting out the separate effects of lifestyle and the built environment factors along with their interactive effects when individuals’ behaviors not only reflect their observable characteristics but also are influenced by the physical environments in which they live and work, indirect connections implied by the early insights of Jacobs (1961) and more recently Hawley and Turnbull (2019). The results demonstrate that lifestyle factors tied to employment show the strongest association with COVID-19 cases. Other lifestyle choices, built environment features, and demographic attributes such as household size, principal cities, highway connectivity, and population density also affect COVID-19 transmission at the onset of the disease outbreak. The analysis reveals a surprising spatial pattern; employment-related lifestyle factors on case rates in outlying neighborhoods are stronger than in neighborhoods within primary cities after accounting for various built environment factors. This research addresses important questions and the perplexing outcomes related to lifestyle and the built environment’s multi-faceted role in spreading COVID-19. In addition, this study represents a pioneering effort in disentangling the pure lifestyle effect on virus transmission after eliminating potentially confounding impacts of built environment factors on household behavior that in turn influence virus transmission.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-06-12
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2024-0050
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Re-place-ing space: utilization of public open space after land
consolidation in Mojosongo Housing, Surakarta City-
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Authors: S. Sunarti, Maya Damayanti, Kharunia Putri
Abstract: Replacing space is a challenge in maintaining public open space after land consolidation. Mojosongo subdistrict, Indonesia, also experienced replacing space due to social, economic and physical changes after more 20 years of consolidation. This study aims to analyze the replacing space of public open spaces after land consolidation in the Mojosongo Berseri I Housing. This research uses a qualitative method through a case study approach. Secondary data from document reviews land consolidation. Primary data were collected through observation and in-depth interviews using snowball sampling techniques with 35 informants. The analysis techniques used are qualitative descriptive, spatial analysis and pattern matching analysis through comparing empirical case studies with relevant literature. Public open spaces have changed function and form. The “replacing space” carried out by the community involves converting public open spaces into built-up areas used for residential purposes and commercial activities. Driving factors for “replacing space” include increase in family members, economic pressures, inflexible building concepts, lack of meaning of space, no supervision/sanctions and not optimal space. The meaning of replacing space does not only change “space” to “place,” but can also cause changes in the form and function of a place carried out by communities. Thus, space allocation is needed according to community needs, preferences and activities to create a sense of place that is supported by regulations and supervision.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-06-06
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0011
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Housing search activity and quantiles-based predictability of housing
price movements in the USA
Open Access Article-
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Authors: Rangan Gupta, Damien Moodley
Abstract: Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility. Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data. The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-05-24
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0166
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Regional distribution of housing types and characteristics in Saudi Arabia
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Authors: Umar Lawal Dano
Abstract: This study aims to explore and analyze the disparities in the distribution of housing types and characteristics among households in Saudi Arabia, taking into consideration the regional perspective. This study uses quantitative data obtained from the General Authority for Statistics, specifically from the Saudi 2022 Statistical Census. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (percentages) as well as inferential statistics, including correlation analysis (Pearson correlation) and t-tests. The study found a distinct preference among Saudis for villas, with 85.3% choosing this housing type, while only 14.7% of non-Saudis opted for villas. The statistical analysis confirmed the significance of housing type for Saudi citizens (t = 2.561, p = 0.037), while non-Saudis did not show a statistically significant preference (t = 1.703, p = 0.132). The Pearson correlation results revealed a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.641, p = 0.009) between regional landmass and the number of houses, and a very strong positive relationship (r = 0.984) between population and the number of houses across the 13 regions. As expected, with increasing population, there was a significant increase in the number of houses (p = 0.001). This study fills a research gap by investigating regional disparities in housing characteristics in Saudi Arabia. The findings are valuable for policymakers, housing developers and the housing market in understanding these disparities. The insights from this research can inform decision-making to promote equitable access to housing types and foster social inclusivity in the housing sector.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-05-15
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2024-0024
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Exploring the influence of social media and materialism on impulsive real
estate buying decisions among young immigrants in Canada-
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Authors: Rhytham Patial, Talia Maria-Rosa Torres, Connor Berezan, Taneshq Talwar, Benny Godwin J. Davidson
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of social media and materialism on impulsive buying decisions and real estate. Furthermore, the paper examines whether social media correlates with materialism and provides insights that will facilitate a better economic climate. The data for the study was collected using an online survey circulated among young immigrants in Canada. A five-point Likert scale was used, followed by structure modeling to test the hypothesis. The findings reveal how impulsive buying behaviors are influenced by materialism and social media among young immigrants. The data support two hypotheses since it confirms that social media affects the amount of materialistic wants possessed by respondents and that the higher their levels of materialism, the more likely they are to make impulsive buying decisions, especially when it comes to buying real estate. As the data was limited to Canada, the findings are limited to this region and could vary across geographic regions. The age group was not considered as a huge factor as minors do not always have the purchasing power in terms of housing. Materialism, social media and impulsive buying may not always lead to purchasing a home spontaneously. However, one must still consider their financial situation before purchasing anything. The findings in this paper will help customers and consumers of social media to understand what truly drives impulsive buying, resulting in unnecessary purchases. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the factors affecting impulsive real estate buying decisions among young immigrants in Canada, including social media and materialism.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-05-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2024-0021
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Unveiling buyers’ preferences for privately developed affordable
housing: a study in Kolkata, India-
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Authors: Sujoy Biswas, Arjun Mukerji
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the buyers’ preferences influencing the purchase of privately developed affordable housing in Kolkata and to determine whether unsold houses result from misalignment with these preferences. The literature review and user-opinion survey identified 119 independent variables that indicate buyers’ preferences. A questionnaire survey of 383 households in affordable housing units from 32 housing complexes in Kolkata recorded buyers’ preferences and satisfaction against the independent variables grouped under five levels of characteristics. The product weights of variables derived from the rank sum method and percentage satisfaction give the Utility Score. Multivariate regression and univariate linear regressions were conducted to determine the significance of each Level of characteristics and each variable, identifying the significant variables that would affect the sale of affordable houses. The multivariate regression analysis has indicated that 68.56% of the variation in the percentage of unsold houses was explained by the five utility scores, which affirms that misalignment with buyers’ preferences significantly affects the sale of privately developed affordable houses. Furthermore, building and neighbourhood-level utility show the highest significance as predictors, while city-level and miscellaneous utility have moderate significance, but housing complex-level utility lacks statistical significance. This study addresses a research gap in privately developed affordable housing in Kolkata, enhancing understanding of buyer preferences in this segment.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-04-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0007
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Does monetary policy contribute to housing price booms' Empirical
evidence from the US economy-
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Authors: Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan, Niaz Ali
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US. Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis. The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA. This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-04-25
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0008
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on TOM in the housing market
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Authors: Askar Choudhury
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the repercussions of this pandemic on the US housing market. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a crucial facet of the real estate market: the Time on the Market (TOM). Therefore, this study aims to ascertain the net effect of this unprecedented event after controlling for economic influences and real estate market variations. Monthly time series data were collected for the period of January 2010 through December 2022 for statistical analysis. Given the temporal nature of the data, we conducted the Durbin–Watson test on the OLS residuals to ascertain the presence of autocorrelation. Subsequently, we used the generalized regression model to mitigate any identified issues of autocorrelation. However, it is important to note that the response variable derived from count data (specifically, the median number of months), which may not conform to the normality assumption associated with standard regression models. To better accommodate this, we opted to use Poisson regression as an alternative approach. Additionally, recognizing the possibility of overdispersion in the count data, we also explored the application of the negative binomial model as a means to address this concern, if present. This study’s findings offer an insightful perspective on the housing market’s resilience in the face of COVID-19 external shock, aligning with previous research outcomes. Although TOM showed a decrease of around 10 days with standard regression and 27% with Poisson regression during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is noteworthy that this reduction lacked statistical significance in both models. As such, the impact of COVID-19 on TOM, and consequently on the housing market, appears less dramatic than initially anticipated. This research deepens our understanding of the complex lead–lag relationships between key factors, ultimately facilitating an early indication of housing price movements. It extends the existing literature by scrutinizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TOM. From a pragmatic viewpoint, this research carries valuable implications for real estate professionals and policymakers. It equips them with the tools to assess the prevailing conditions of the real estate market and to prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics. Specifically, both investors and policymakers are urged to remain vigilant in monitoring changes in the inventory of houses for sale. This vigilant approach can serve as an early warning system for upcoming market changes, helping stakeholders make well-informed decisions.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-04-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0179
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Understanding purchase behaviour towards green housing among millennials:
the mediating role of purchase intention-
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Authors: Jitender Kumar, Vinki Rani, Garima Rani, Manju Rani
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate millennials’ purchase behaviours towards green housing in India. This paper also examines the mediating effect of purchase intention between determinants of buying green housing and purchase behaviour in the real estate industry. A cross-sectional research design was applied to collect data from 393 rural and 388 urban millennials. This study used “partial least squares structural equation modelling” to verify the framed hypotheses. The outcomes indicate that attitude, environmental concern and green trust substantially influence the purchase intention and purchase behaviour towards green housing in rural and urban studies. However, perceived risk has an insignificant effect on purchase intention and purchase behaviour towards green housing in both studies. Likewise, innovativeness insignificantly impacts the purchase intention in study rural while substantially impacting the purchase behaviour in both studies. Additionally, a favourable relationship between purchase intention and purchase behaviour towards green housing in both rural and urban contexts. This study provides fruitful evidence for practitioners, marketers and academicians about the drivers of purchase behaviour toward green housing. The results of this study also enable regulatory bodies to design appropriate strategies and tactics to foster the sustainable growth of nations. This paper is a preliminary attempt to explore the decision to buy green housing in India. Furthermore, the authors targeted a specific age group, especially millennials, to gain a valuable understanding of how different factors affect green housing decisions in different areas, that is, rural and urban areas.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-04-15
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0009
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The effect of the road rationing policy on housing prices: evidence from
the odd-even policy in Jakarta-
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Authors: Amanda Dian Widyasti Kusumawardani, Muhammad Halley Yudhistira
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the Odd-Even Road Rationing Policy (RRP) on housing prices in Jakarta, Indonesia. It aims to evaluate the net effect of the RRP on housing prices. The study uses the monocentric model and employs the difference-in-differences (DD) method. Annual neighborhood-level housing price data is analyzed to assess the impact of the RRP on housing prices. Additionally, propensity score matching is used to address potential biases resulting from non-random policy assignments. The results demonstrate that houses located within the RRP-restricted area experience a decrease in price that is relative to those in the control group. The findings indicate a decrease in housing prices ranging from 7.59% to 14.7% within the RRP-restricted area. This suggests that the positive impacts resulting from the RRP have not fully compensated for the restricted accessibility experienced by individuals who have limited behavioral changes. The study also confirms the significance of commuting costs in individuals' location decisions, aligning with predictions from urban economics models. This study contributes to the literature by providing insights into the effects of a RRP on housing prices. It expands understanding beyond the immediate effects on traffic conditions and air pollution, which previous studies have primarily focused on. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research will be the first conducted to identify the impacts of RRP on housing prices in Indonesia.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-04-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0175
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The determinants of renting intention and renting satisfaction: the role
of housing knowledge, housing challenges, and housing policy-
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Authors: Mahazril ‘Aini Yaaco, Hafizah Hammad Ahmad Khan, Nurul Hidayana Mohd Noor
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the impact of housing knowledge, housing challenges and housing policy on the renting intention and satisfaction of young people. A questionnaire survey helped collect data from young people in the study area, which were then analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 27 software. A descriptive analysis and the Cronbach’s alpha test were adopted to analyse the data. The confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a significant relationship between housing knowledge, housing challenges and housing policy and renting intention and satisfaction. The overall findings revealed that most young people intend to own a home one day, and a minority of them decided to continue renting. The findings suggest that there is a significant relationship between housing knowledge and housing intention. However, housing challenges and housing policies do not appear to impact renting intentions. On the other hand, housing knowledge and housing challenges were found to be associated with housing satisfaction, while housing policy does not show a significant relationship. This study, however, poses limitations as it uses a limited model and location and involves only a cross-sectional study. Future studies can use the methodology used in this study to conduct further investigations on housing intention and satisfaction in other regions of the country, thereby validating the findings of this study. In terms of practical implications, this study has made a valuable contribution to the field of housing literature by shedding light on two crucial elements, namely, housing intention and satisfaction, which have been understudied. Understanding the determinants of housing intention and satisfaction is vital in efforts to implement appropriate policy reforms. Findings from this study offer valuable insight related to managerial and practical implications, with the former implicating a need to prioritise initiatives that enhance renters’ housing knowledge. Implementing educational programmes and providing accessible resources can empower renters with a better understanding of the rental process and other important housing information. This paper is relevant because it provides a guideline for policymakers to initiate regulations concerning housing and implement appropriate policy reforms. This study can also help housing providers develop more affordable housing that meets the needs of young people currently renting because most have expressed their housing intentions. Understanding housing intention and satisfaction determinants is vital to implementing appropriate policy reforms.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-04-04
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0178
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Integrating rational and irrational factors towards explicating investment
satisfaction and reinvestment intentions: a study in the context of direct
residential real estate-
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Authors: Sharmila Devi R., Swamy Perumandla, Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to understand the investment decision-making of real estate investors in housing, highlighting the interplay between rational and irrational factors. In this study, investment satisfaction was a mediator, while reinvestment intention was the dependent variable. A quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive research design was used, gathering data from a sample of 550 residential real estate investors using a multi-stage stratified sampling technique. The partial least squares structural equation modelling disjoint two-stage approach was used for data analysis. This methodological approach allowed for an in-depth examination of the relationship between rational factors such as location, profitability, financial viability, environmental considerations and legal aspects alongside irrational factors including various biases like overconfidence, availability, anchoring, representative and information cascade. This study strongly supports the adaptive market hypothesis, showing that residential real estate investor behaviour is dynamic, combining rational and irrational elements influenced by evolutionary psychology. This challenges traditional views of investment decision-making. It also establishes that behavioural biases, key to adapting to market changes, are crucial in shaping residential property market efficiency. Essentially, the study uncovers an evolving real estate investment landscape driven by evolutionary behavioural patterns. This research redefines rationality in behavioural finance by illustrating psychological biases as adaptive tools within the residential property market, urging a holistic integration of these insights into real estate investment theories. The study reshapes property valuation models by blending economic and psychological perspectives, enhancing investor understanding and market efficiency. These interdisciplinary insights offer a blueprint for improved regulatory policies, investor education and targeted real estate marketing, fundamentally transforming the sector’s dynamics. Unlike previous studies, the research uniquely integrates human cognitive behaviour theories from psychology and business studies, specifically in the context of residential property investment. This interdisciplinary approach offers a more nuanced understanding of investor behaviour.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-03-29
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2024-0004
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Macroeconomic drivers effect on housing sale prices in China
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Authors: Aimin Wang, Sadam Hussain, Jiying Yan
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to conduct a thorough empirical investigation of the intricate relationship between urban housing sales prices and land supply prices in China, with the aim of elucidating the underlying economic principles governing this dynamic interplay. Using monthly data of China, the authors use the asymmetry nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to test for nonlinearity in the relationship between land supply price and urban housing prices. The empirical results confirm the existence of an asymmetric relationship between land supply price and urban housing prices. The authors find that land supply price has a positive and statistically significant impact on urban housing prices when land supply is increasing. Policymakers should strive to strike a balance between safeguarding residents’ housing rights and maintaining market stability. Although the asymmetric effect of land supply price has been identified as a significant contributor in this study, it is important to note that the research primarily relies on time series data and focuses on analysis at the national level. Although time series data offer a macroscopic perspective of overall trends within a country, they fail to adequately showcase the structural variations among different cities. To ensure a stable housing market and meet residents’ housing needs, policymakers must reexamine current land policies. Solely relying on restricting land supply to control housing prices may yield counterproductive results. Instead, increasing land supply could be a more viable option. By rationally adjusting land supply prices, the government can not only mitigate excessive growth in housing prices but also foster the healthy development of the housing market. First, the authors have comprehensively evaluated the impact of land supply prices in China on urban housing sales prices, examining whether they play a facilitating or mitigating role in the fluctuation of these prices. Second, departing from traditional linear analytical frameworks, the authors have explored the possibility of a nonlinear relationship existing between land supply prices and urban housing sales prices in China. Finally, using an advanced NARDL model, the authors have delved deeper into the asymmetric effects of land supply prices on urban housing sales prices in China.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-03-12
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0182
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Market approach to provision of housing to low-income households in urban
Malawi: a panacea or further dispossession'-
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Authors: Sane Zuka
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of market-based approach to provision of housing to low-income households in urban Malawi. This study was conducted in Blantyre, Malawi, between 2019 and 2022 and used both quantitative (household survey) and qualitative (in-depth interviews and document study) methods of data collection. Interviews were conducted with key players and investors in the housing sector. Household survey data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, which allowed the generation of descriptive housing valuables, whereas qualitative data were analyzed through content analysis. This paper demonstrates that, rather than ameliorating the housing problems facing low-income households, the market approach to provision of housing in Malawi has worsened the housing situation in the country. This is so because the market approach to the provision of housing in Malawi is not only enforcing the logic of capitalistic accumulation in the housing sector but also supporting mechanisms of exclusion based on economic stratification within the community. Completeness of data over time as there is no market data bank available in the country. The findings from this study suggest that some degree of state intervention in addressing the housing problem in Malawi is required. The study findings suggest that a market approach to the provision of housing can increase social inequality as low-income households face challenges in accessing housing. There is a paucity of research on the effects of the market approach on the provision of affordable housing to low-income households in Malawi. This paper assesses this important policy gap and provides significant policy directions.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-03-04
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2023-0161
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Could financialisation explain why developers are building more expensive
houses' Evidence for Malaysia-
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Authors: Hon Chung Hui
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses has been decreasing continuously in the past decade. This implies that housing developers are launching more expensive houses. The greater focus on higher cost housing could be attributed to inflation. But while input cost is rising, the housing sector has also become increasingly financialised. This claim can be supported by the rising share of mortgage and real estate loans in gross domestic product. Financialisation is a process in which the financial sector becomes more dominant relative to the real sector. The extent to which this process is responsible for the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia is investigated. A survey of the literature suggested that the decreasing the proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing could be result of rising input cost, greater degree of financialisation and changing market concentration. Thus, long-run cointegrating equations were formulated and estimated. These equations linked housing share with financialisation, market structure and input cost. The quantitative and qualitative impact of financialisation on the structure of housing supply is of interest. The analyses of secondary data suggested that financialisation and input cost did indeed contribute to the decrease in proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing. However, the impact of market concentration on housing share was ambiguous. This conclusion survived several robustness checks. The financialisation of the housing sector implies that developers are increasingly building for profits instead of accommodating the social objective of providing shelter. This result is unsettling because access to adequate housing is a human right. The transformation of housing from the concept of a shelter to a tradable, money-making asset could be a major contributor to the declining housing affordability in the country. Thus, efforts to improve affordability must take account of the effects of financialisation. An empirical framework for assessing the changes in the structure of housing supply was developed. Existing studies tended to focus only on the volume of housing supply. It is a comprehensive study on changes in the structure of housing supply. Second, while existing studies on the financialisation of housing are mostly qualitative in methodology, this paper offers a quantitative assessment of the financialisation in the housing sector.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-03-01
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2023-0159
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Transforming homeownership: an innovative financing model with a future
value approach-
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Authors: Rosli Said, Mardhiati Sulaimi, Rohayu Ab Majid, Ainoriza Mohd Aini, Olusegun Olaopin Olanrele, Omokolade Akinsomi
Abstract: This study aims to address the critical need for innovative financing solutions in the global housing sector, focusing specifically on Malaysia’s distinct housing finance system encompassing both conventional and Islamic loans. The primary objective is to develop a transformative housing finance model that addresses affordability challenges and reshapes the Malaysian housing landscape. The study presents an alternate housing finance model for Malaysia, integrating lower monthly payments and reduced household debt. Key variables include house price appreciation rates, interest rates, initial guarantee fees and loan-to-value ratios. Inspired by the Help to Buy (HTB) scheme, the model aligns with proven global initiatives for enhanced affordability, balancing payment amounts, loan interest rates and acceptable price thresholds. The study’s findings promise to address affordability disparities and reshape Malaysia’s housing finance landscape. The emphasis is on introducing a structured repayment plan that offers a sustainable path to homeownership, particularly for low-income families. Incorporating the future value adaptation concept, inspired by reverse mortgages and Islamic finance, enhances adaptability, ensuring long-term sustainability despite economic shifts. The proposed model promotes widespread access to homeownership, offering practical solutions for policymakers to improve affordability, prompting adaptable risk management strategies for financial institutions and empowering potential homebuyers with increased flexibility. The study introduces a transformative housing finance model for Malaysia, merging elements from reverse mortgages, Islamic finance and the HTB scheme, offering potential applicability to similar systems globally.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-02-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2023-0156
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Examining the impact of website layout and dark triad approach on real
estate purchase decisions in India: a young adult socialization mediated
model-
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Authors: Ishika Pradeep, Jossy P. George, Benny Godwin J. Davidson
Abstract: This study aims to determine website quality, young adult socialization and dark triad personality as the factors influencing the real estate purchase decision. In addition, this study also measures the mediating effects of young adult socialization on real estate purchase buying behavior. Related literature, quantifiable variables with a five-point Likert scale, hypothesis testing and mediators are used to study the model. A systematic questionnaire that was divided into four sections was used. A total of 336 valid responses were collected and analyzed through a structural equation model. The results suggest that dark triad personality and young adult socialization considerably affect real estate purchase decisions. The development proves website quality does not significantly impact real estate purchase behavior. This study is limited to a few young consumers’ responses. Future studies could be more widespread globally and should include more variables and offline methods of purchasing behavior. As per the review of existing literature, this research is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to determine the factors affecting the real estate purchase decision with factors like website quality, dark triad personalities and young adult socialization involving it.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-02-23
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0181
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- From homeless to home: issues and challenges of housing continuity in
Klang Valley, Malaysia-
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Authors: Zafirah Al Sadat Zyed, Izma Syazana Badrudin, Peter Aning Tedong
Abstract: This paper aims to discuss the issues and challenges related to housing continuity for individuals transitioning from homelessness to securing a place to live in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The aim of the study is to explore the problems and solutions in the context of housing policy, particularly as they pertain to homeless households. The study involves conducting in-depth interviews with various stakeholders involved in helping homeless households find shelter and access to public housing. The research methodology comprises a comprehensive literature review encompassing housing affordability, affordable housing and homelessness both within Malaysia and globally to identify research gaps. One of the key questions highlighted the effectiveness of existing programs aimed at providing short-term shelter and social integration for homeless individuals. Additionally, it highlights one of the primary challenges in this process, which is the tendency of homeless individuals to return to homelessness due to various factors. The data collection uses a qualitative approach and the data are obtained through in-depth interviews with key stakeholders responsible for assisting homeless households in Klang Valley, Malaysia, encompassing federal, state and local government representatives. Purposive sampling ensures diverse stakeholder representation. Interviews are structured semi-structured to maintain consistency while allowing for open-ended discussions on challenges and successes in facilitating homeless individuals' transition to stable housing. Thematic analysis of transcribed interview data focuses on recurring themes related to housing continuity, affordability and homeless households' behavioural patterns. There are five (n = 5) stakeholders consist of local government (Code: R1), ministries (Code: R2; R5) and government agencies (Code: R3; R4). The study revealed that various programs have been implemented to provide short-term shelter and facilitate the integration of homeless individuals into society. Nevertheless, a significant challenge identified was the recurring tendency of homeless households to return to homelessness. This “behavioural direction” was found to be influenced by multiple factors which includes mental health and attitude problem. The findings emphasise the need for collaborative efforts among all stakeholders to address the issues and challenges related to housing continuity in Klang Valley. The originality of this research lies in its focus on the specific and under-researched context of Klang Valley, Malaysia, regarding the critical issues of housing affordability and the challenges of housing continuity for homeless households. While housing affordability and affordable housing are widely recognised as global housing policy concerns, this study delves into a localised setting where limited attention has been given to understanding the transitions of homeless individuals to stable housing. The findings provide unique insights into the efforts and challenges faced in Klang Valley, shedding light on the behavioural patterns and factors contributing to recurring homelessness. This paper offers a context-specific perspective that contributes to the broader understanding of housing continuity issues.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-02-21
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2023-0157
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Market sentiment in emerging economies: evidence from the South African
property market-
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Authors: Benjamin Kwakye, Tze-Haw Chan
Abstract: Market sentiment has shown to influence housing prices in the global north, but in emerging economies, the nexus is rare to chance on in the current state of science for policy direction. More importantly in the recent decade where policymakers are yet to conclude on the myriad of factors confronting the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa inhibiting affordability. This paper therefore examines the impact of market sentiment on house prices in South Africa. The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with quarterly data spanning from 2005Q1 to 2020Q4. In all, it was established that market sentiment plays a minimal role in the property market in South Africa. But there was enough evidence of cointegration from the bound test between sentiment and house prices. Nevertheless, the lag values of sentiment pointed to a rise in house prices. Exchange rate volatilities and inflation had a statistically significant effect on prices in both the long and short term, respectively. Policymakers could still monitor market sentiment in the housing market due to the strong chemistry between house prices and sentiment, as evidenced from the bound test, but focus on economic fundamentals as the main policy tool for house price reduction. The findings and the creation of the sentiment index make an invaluable contribution to the paper and add to the paucity of literature on the study of market sentiment in the housing market.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-02-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0144
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Does the market value energy efficiency within EPC-labels' An analysis of
the residential real estate market in Flanders-
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Authors: Alesia Gerassimenko, Lieven De Moor, Laurens Defau
Abstract: The current literature has not investigated the perceived value of energy efficiency by households, regardless of financial benefits. Furthermore, there is a severe lack of research that investigates the effectiveness of the current format of EPC-labels. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is twofold: to study how households value energy efficiency in the housing market, regardless of price effects. This study uses multiple hedonic regression models to analyse 706,778 Flemish properties for sale or rent between 2019 and 2023. The data is provided by Immoweb – the largest online real estate platform in Belgium. Given that the selling market is driven by different mechanisms than the rental market, the data set was divided in sold (522,164 listings) and rented properties (184,614 listings). The ambiguous results of the A-label in the selling market indicate that the “class evaluation effect” found in related markets which use labels (e.g. household appliances) is also present in the housing market. However, the results of the other (lower) labels clearly show that owners do value energy improvements within labels, and this effect becomes stronger as the EPC-label becomes better. The rental market shows the opposite results. Energy improvements are only valued if they translate into a financial benefit. Taking these findings into account, the second part of this research shows that rescaling the EPC-label creates an incentive for improvements within labels. This paper provides novel insights by studying the perceived value of energy efficiency in the absence of financial benefits and critically studying the effectiveness of the EPC-labels in their current shape. By investigating both the sales and rental market, the authors are able to make a comparison which creates valuable insights for academia, governments and real estate professionals.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-02-15
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2023-0173
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Islamic home financing products: a study of customer intentions in
Indonesia-
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Authors: Permata Wulandari, Muhammad Nadhif Ubaidillah
Abstract: Islamic home financing products with Murabaha contracts are widely favored among the Muslim community in Indonesia, given that the country has a population of over 230 million Muslims. To facilitate the development of products and enhance public interest, it is important for Islamic banking institutions to comprehend the elements that may impact the intents of Muslim communities in Indonesia when selecting Islamic home financing products with Murabaha contracts. The purpose of this study is to ascertain the many aspects that may have an impact on the decision-making process of Muslim communities in Indonesia when selecting Islamic home financing product that use Murabaha contracts. The partial least square-structural equation modeling data processing techniques will be used to process and evaluate these components. The data used in this study was acquired by administering questionnaires to a sample of 298 Muslim communities, which were randomly selected from a pool of 301 possible customers of Islamic house finance in Indonesia. The results of this research show that attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control have positive influence on intention to choose an Islamic home financing scheme with Murabaha agreement, while price fairness of Islamic home financing and Islamic altruism have direct and indirect influence on intention to choose Islamic home financing. Analyzing factors that affect intention to choose Islamic home financing product under Murabaha contract is essential. Future study is required to analyze other Islamic home financing products, such as istisna, ijarah muntahia bi tamlik and diminishing musharakah. This study only serves as a foundation for further investigations into conventional approaches to home financing in emerging nations. The areas can be expanded to be implemented in other countries. It is anticipated that Islamic banks have the capacity to cultivate a favorable and constructive perception, hence fostering a positive disposition among the Muslim populace in Indonesia. Furthermore, it is essential for Islamic banks to guarantee that all stakeholders within the sharia-compliant institution, particularly the frontline staff, have enough expertise and understanding of the intricacies of Islamic home financing products including Murabaha contracts, which are intended for prospective customers. In the foreseeable future, it is anticipated that the Muslim population in Indonesia would exhibit a greater intention toward the use of Islamic home financing solutions that use Murabaha contracts, facilitated by the establishment of a conducive environment. This research integrates the impacts of pricing fairness and Islamic charity as a modified model, alongside the theory of planned behavior model, to examine the influence of these factors on individuals’ intentions to use Islamic home financing in Indonesia.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-02-01
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0138
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Assessing the effect of housing attributes and green certification on
Malaysian house price-
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Authors: Nor Nazihah Chuweni, Nurul Sahida Fauzi, Asmma Che Kasim, Sekar Mayangsari, Nurhastuty Kesumo Wardhani
Abstract: Sustainability represents innovative elements in determining the profitability of real estate investments, among other factors, including the green component in real estate. Evidence from the literature has pointed out that incorporating green features into residential buildings can reduce operational costs and increase the building’s value. Although green real estate is considered the future trend of choice, it is still being determined whether prospective buyers are willing to accept the extra cost of green residential investment. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of housing attributes and green certification on residential real estate prices. The impact of the housing attribute and green certification in the residential sectors was assessed using a transaction data set comprising approximately 861 residential units sold in Selangor, Malaysia, between 2014 and 2022. Linear and quantile regression were used in this study by using SPSS software for a robust result. The findings indicate that the market price of residential properties in Malaysia is influenced by housing attributes, transaction types and Green Building Index certification. The empirical evidence from this study suggests that green certification significantly affects the sales price of residential properties in Malaysia. The findings of this research will help investors identify measurable factors that affect the transaction prices of green-certified residential real estate. These identifications will facilitate the development of strategic plans aimed at achieving sustainable rates of return in the sustainable residential real estate market. Specifically, this research will contribute to achieving area 4 of the 11th Malaysia Plan, which pertains to pursuing green growth for sustainability and resilience. This will be achieved by enhancing awareness among investors and homebuyers regarding the importance of green residential buildings in contributing to the environment, the economy and society. The regression model for housing attributes and green certification on house price developed in this study could offer valuable benefits to support and advance Malaysia in realising its medium and long-term goals for green technology.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-18
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0145
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Parental financial support for housing: the importance of investment homes
and family size-
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Authors: Xueqi Wang, Graham Squires, David Dyason
Abstract: Homeownership for younger generations is exacerbated by the deterioration in affordability worldwide. As a result, the role of parental support in facilitating homeownership requires attention. This study aims to assess the influence of parental wealth and housing tenure as support mechanisms to facilitate homeownership for their children. This study uses data from a representative survey of the New Zealand population. Parents who are homeowners tend to offer more financial support to their children than those who rent. Additionally, the financial support increases when parents have investment housing as well. The results further reveal differences in financial support when considering one-child and multi-child families. The intergenerational transmission of wealth inequality appears to be more noticeable in multi-child families, where parental housing tenure plays a dominant role in determining the level of financial support provided to offspring. The insights gained serve as a basis for refining housing policies to better account for these family transfers and promote equitable access to homeownership.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2023-0155
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Exchange rate and housing affordability in OECD countries
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Authors: Afees Adebare Salisu, Aliyu Akorede Rufai, Modestus Chidi Nsonwu
Abstract: This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability for 18 OECD countries from 1975Q1 to 2022Q4. After that, this study demonstrates how this nexus behaves during high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times. This study uses the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing affordability to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries and estimate various short- and long-run dynamics in the relationship between housing affordability and exchange rate. Exchange rate appreciation improves housing affordability in the short run, whereas this connection tends to dissipate in the long run. Moreover, inflation can worsen housing affordability during turbulent times, such as the global financial crisis, in both the short and long run. Ignoring these changes in the relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability during turbulent times can lead to incorrect conclusions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the association between exchange rates and housing affordability by demonstrating how these variables behave in high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0137
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Determinants of housing prices: evidence from East Coast Malaysia
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Authors: Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain, Abdol Samad Nawi, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Anuar Husin
Abstract: The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition, this study will provide exposure to the integration of managerial skills by using both microeconomics and macroeconomics concepts and theories to aid decision-making in a business environment. The research method comprised qualitative methodology of literature review, case study and quantitative methodology of multiple linear regression (MLR). In this case, seven microeconomics and macroeconomics factors which are believed to significantly affect house price index (HPI) are taken into consideration which includes gross domestic product, consumer price index (CPI), government tax and subsidy on housing, overnight policy rate, unemployment rate (UNEMP), the median income (INC) and cost of production index. This research has resulted in three significant factors affecting HPI from MLR, which include CPI, UNEMP and INC where the increase of these factors will cause a high increment of HPI. The other four factors are not significant. Malaysia has been facing the stagnancy in house market these recent years due to issues such as massive oversupply, impacting Malaysia’s economy specifically focusing on domestic direct investment. To avoid oversupply issues, the vitality of future house demand and pricing forecast should be comprehended by involved bodies for more effective planning for the house development industry. To make a better and bigger impact, this research is intended to analyse the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the HPI to better understand the significance of each of these factors to the changes of HPI to resolve these economic issues.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-11
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0139
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Comparative analysis of machine learning models in predicting housing
prices: a case study of Prishtina's real estate market-
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Authors: Visar Hoxha
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression in predicting housing prices in Prishtina. Using Python, the models were assessed on a data set of 1,512 property transactions with mean squared error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and root mean squared error as metrics. The study also conducts variable importance test. Upon preprocessing and standardization of the data, the models were trained and tested, with the decision tree model producing the best performance. The variable importance test found the distance from central business district and distance to the road leading to central business district as the most relevant drivers of housing prices across all models, with the exception of support vector machine model, which showed minimal importance for all variables. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the originality of this research rests in its methodological approach and emphasis on Prishtina's real estate market, which has never been studied in this context, and its findings may be generalizable to comparable transitional economies with booming real estate sector like Kosovo.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2023-0120
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- Is there a relationship between housing deprivation and crime'
Evidence for the Spanish case-
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Authors: Jonathan Torres-Tellez
Abstract: Crime increased in Spain during the period of 2017–2019 after a decade of decline. This coincides with severe housing deprivation multiplying by three in just four years, affecting 3.4% of the population in 2020. However, no research has been found that analyzes whether this deterioration of the physical conditions of housing and its environmental elements has impacted the level of crime in Spain. This study aims to analyze how housing deprivation affects crime in the Spanish context. For this purpose, different items that are considered by Eurostat as elements of housing deprivation are used. The difference generalized method of moments estimator is used for 16 Spanish regions that comprises the period from 2013 to 2019. The results suggest that certain structural and environmental elements of housing are positively associated with crime: space (0.5% and 0.4%) and high housing expenditure (0.4% and 0.5%) are positively correlated with the two dependent variables; the lack of light and overcrowding stand out as they establish a positive and statistically significant association with four out of the six analyzed crime categories; the absence of lighting effect reaches up to 1.8% and 1.7% in the case of violent robberies and vehicle theft, respectively. Finally, pollution is negatively associated with robbery with violence (−1.9%), theft (−0.7%) and robbery with force (−0.5%). To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that examines whether this deterioration of the physical conditions of housing has impacted the level of crime in Spain. It is also pioneering at the European level by using nonmonetary dimensions of inequality such as housing.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0141
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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- The exchange rates volatilities impact on the stock and real estate
markets in South Africa-
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Authors: Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt, Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Abstract: Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently. The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020. The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility. This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets. This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2024-01-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2023-0142
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2024)
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