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International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.211  Citation Impact (citeScore): 1 Number of Followers: 11  Hybrid journal * Containing 3  Open Access article(s) in this issue *ISSN (Print) 1753-8270 - ISSN (Online) 1753-8289 Published by Emerald  [362 journals]
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- The impact of energy certificates on sales and rental prices: a
comparative analysis-
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Authors: Alesia Gerassimenko, Laurens Defau, Lieven De Moor
Abstract: The current literature on energy certificates shows that Energy Performance Certificate labels have an important effect on real estate prices. However, interestingly, the limited studies that address the rental market find significantly lower price premiums than the sales market. The purpose of this paper is to add to this literature, by doing a comparative analysis of price premiums in the sales and rental market in Flanders (Belgium). This study uses a hedonic regression model to analyze 177,670 real estate listings between 2016 and 2021. The data is provided by Immoweb – the largest online real estate platform in Belgium. The data set was divided in sold and rented properties: the authors evaluated 126,217 sales listings and 51,453 rent listings. The results confirm that energy efficient properties generate a price premium, but that this premium is significantly larger in the sales market than in the rental market. In addition, the findings indicate that both investors and landlords could benefit strongly from renovating dwellings – especially when renovating from an F label to an A label. Previous research focuses strongly on the sales market, although in many countries the rental market is similar in size and responsible from much energy consumption. Interestingly, the few studies that are addressing the rental market, find singificantly smaller price premiums than in the sales market. The findings add to this literature tradition and offer a comparative analysis of price premiums in the sales and rental market in Flanders. This allows us to not only show the similarities between both markets but also highlight the differences – creating valuable insights for academia, governments and real estate professionals.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-05-25
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2023-0041
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- The US monetary conditions and Dubai’s real estate market: twist or
tango'-
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Authors: Ahmed Shoukry Rashad, Mahmoud Farghally
Abstract: The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study. For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE. The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment. Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai’s real estate, using panel data analysis.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-05-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2023-0035
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- A dynamic analysis of the influence of foreign real estate investments on
residential land prices in Mauritius-
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Authors: Narvada Gopy-Ramdhany, Boopen Seetanah
Abstract: Mauritius’s residential real estate sector has undergone an increase in foreign investment over the past decades. This study aims to establish if the increasing level of foreign real estate investments (FREI) has increased land demand and land prices. The study also aims to depict whether the relation between FREI and land prices prevails at an aggregate and/ or a regional level. Data from 26 regions, classified as urban, rural and coastal is collected on an annual basis over the period 2000 to 2019, and a dynamic panel regression framework, namely, an autoregressive distributed lag model, is used to take into account the dynamic nature of land price modeling. The findings show that, at the aggregate level, in the long-term, FREI does not have a significant influence on land prices, while in the short term, a positive significant relationship is noted between the two variables. A regional breakdown of the data into urban, rural and coastal was done. In the long term, only in coastal regions, a positive significant link was observed, whereas in urban and rural regions FREI did not influence land prices. In the short term, the positive link subsists in the coastal regions, and in rural regions also land prices are positively affected by FREI. Unlike other studies which have used quite general measures of FREI, the present research has focused on FREI mainly undertaken in the residential real estate market and how these have affected residential land prices. This study also contributes to research on the determinants of land prices which is relatively scarce compared to research on housing prices.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-05-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2023-0016
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- How frequent and visible criminal violence affects housing prices:
evidence from Mexico City (2007–2011)-
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Authors: Laura H. Atuesta, Monserrat Carrasco
Abstract: Between 2006 and 2012, Mexico implemented a “frontal war against organized crime”. This strategy increased criminal violence and triggered negative consequences across the country’s economic, political and social spheres. This study aims to analyse how the magnitude and visibility of criminal violence impact the housing market of Mexico City. The authors used different violent proxies to measure the effect of the magnitude and visibility of violence in housing prices. The structure of the data set is an unbalanced panel with no conditions of strict exogeneity. To address endogeneity, the authors calculate the first differences to estimate an Arellano–Bond estimator and use the lags of the dependent variable to instrumentalise the endogenous variable. Results suggest that the magnitude of violence negatively impacts housing prices. Similarly, housing prices are negatively affected the closer the property is to visible violence, measured through narcomessages placed next to the bodies of executed victims. Lastly, housing prices are not always affected when a violent event occurs nearby, specifically, when neighbours or potential buyers consider this event as sporadic violence. There are only a few studies of violence in housing prices using data from developing countries, and most of these studies are conducted with aggregated data at the municipality or state level. The authors are using geocoded information, both violence events and housing prices, to estimate more disaggregated effects. Moreover, the authors used different proxies to measure different characteristics of violence (magnitude and visibility) to estimate the heterogeneous effects of violence on housing prices.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-05-05
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2023-0020
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Extrapolative time-series modelling of house prices: a case study from
Sydney, Australia-
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Authors: Shanaka Herath, Vince Mangioni, Song Shi, Xin Janet Ge
Abstract: House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers. Although predictive models based on economic fundamentals are widely used, the common requirement for such studies is that underlying data are stationary. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of alternative filtering methods for forecasting house prices. We specifically focus on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and multiplicative decomposition using median house prices for Sydney from Q3 1994 to Q1 2017. The model performance is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasting techniques and a robustness check against secondary data sources. Multiplicative decomposition outperforms exponential smoothing at forecasting accuracy. The superior decomposition model suggests that seasonal and cyclical components provide important additional information for predicting house prices. The forecasts for 2017–2028 suggest that prices will slowly increase, going past 2016 levels by 2020 in the apartment market and by 2022/2023 in the detached housing market. We demonstrate that filtering models are simple (univariate models that only require historical house prices), easy to implement (with no condition of stationarity) and widely used in financial trading, sports betting and other fields where producing accurate forecasts is more important than explaining the drivers of change. The paper puts forward a case for the inclusion of filtering models within the forecasting toolkit as a useful reference point for comparing forecasts from alternative models. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper undertakes the first systematic comparison of two filtering models for the Sydney housing market.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2023-0018
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Measuring long-run housing affordability for Malaysian millennial
households: a geospatial and income distribution analysis-
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Authors: Gary John Rangel, Jason Wei Jian Ng., Thangarajah Thiyagarajan Murugasu, Wai Ching Poon
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to use a lifetime income measure to evaluate the long-run housing affordability for an understudied cohort of households in the literature – the millennials. The authors do this in the context of Malaysia, measuring long-run affordability for four housing types across geographic locations and income distributions. This study calculates a long-run housing affordability index (HAI) using data on house prices and household incomes. Essentially a ratio of predicted lifetime incomes to house prices, the HAI is computed for four common housing types in Malaysia from 2005 to 2016 and for six states in the country. The HAI is also compared across four income percentiles. The analysis reveals varying patterns of housing affordability among different states in Malaysia. Housing affordability has declined since 2010, with most housing types being unaffordable for millennial-led households with the lowest income. Housing is most affordable for those in the highest income bracket, although even here, there are pockets of unaffordable housing as well. Based on the findings, this study proposes three targeted interventions to improve housing affordability for Malaysian millennials. This study fills a gap in the literature by examining the long-run housing affordability of Malaysian millennial-led households based on both geographic location and income distribution. The millennial population is understudied in the housing affordability literature, making this study a valuable contribution to the field.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2023-0017
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Young consumers' green marketing orientation: role of customer citizenship
behaviour in determining real estate purchase intention in India-
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Authors: Jobin Jacob, Arun Antony Chully, Benny J. Godwin, Jossy P. George
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess green marketing as an influential factor in the purchase of real estate. In this study, the consumer citizenship behaviour of young individuals will be studied with an assessment of real estate purchase intention, strategic green marketing orientation (GMO) and tactical GMO. The sample frame consists of young consumers from India’s metropolitan cities. The respondents were in the range of 18 to 35 years of age. These cities provide a high standard of living, more career options and better educational opportunities. Five separate sections of a standardised questionnaire were used, and a structural equation model was used to assess a total of 393 valid replies. Green marketing impacts the behaviour that influences the desire of young customer to buy green real estate. As the focus of this study is primarily on major cities, future research may study similar behaviour in non-metropolitan cities. The study can also be conducted among consumers of other age groups. The originality, to the best of the author’s knowledge, exists in examining how young consumers’ opinions about green marketing impact their intentions to purchase green houses and real estate in India. This study will be accessible to all parties involved in the housing and real estate industries.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2023-0002
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Predictability of Belgian residential real estate rents using tree-based
ML models and IML techniques-
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Authors: Ian Lenaers, Kris Boudt, Lieven De Moor
Abstract: The purpose is twofold. First, this study aims to establish that black box tree-based machine learning (ML) models have better predictive performance than a standard linear regression (LR) hedonic model for rent prediction. Second, it shows the added value of analyzing tree-based ML models with interpretable machine learning (IML) techniques. Data on Belgian residential rental properties were collected. Tree-based ML models, random forest regression and eXtreme gradient boosting regression were applied to derive rent prediction models to compare predictive performance with a LR model. Interpretations of the tree-based models regarding important factors in predicting rent were made using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature importance (FI) plots and SHAP summary plots. Results indicate that tree-based models perform better than a LR model for Belgian residential rent prediction. The SHAP FI plots agree that asking price, cadastral income, surface livable, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms and variables measuring the proximity to points of interest are dominant predictors. The direction of relationships between rent and its factors is determined with SHAP summary plots. In addition to linear relationships, it emerges that nonlinear relationships exist. Rent prediction using ML is relatively less studied than house price prediction. In addition, studying prediction models using IML techniques is relatively new in real estate economics. Moreover, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to derive insights of driving determinants of predicted rents from SHAP FI and SHAP summary plots.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2022-0172
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Real estate investment decisions in COVID-19 crisis: the effect of
perception and behavioral biases-
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Authors: Muhammad Ali, Leong Choi-Meng, Eugene Cheng-Xi Aw, Chin-Hong Puah, Abdulkadir Barut
Abstract: This study aims to examine the interconnectedness between investors' perceptions of assets and their behavioral factors with investment decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in the real estate business in Pakistan. In this regard, this study predicted investment decisions using individuals’ perceptions of the asset (perceived asset quality, perceived asset price and perceived asset value [PAV]),and behavioral biases (overconfidence [OC], herding [HD], disposition effect [DE] and risk aversion [RA]). This study used a survey-based instrument to gather a total of 189 usable samples. The sample data were analyzed using partial least square structural equation modeling. The findings of this study indicated that PAV, OC and HD significantly predicted the investment decision, whereas DE and RA had an insignificant impact on investment decisions in the real estate business. In addition, this study found that PAV is the most important factor to predict investment decisions in real estate during the COVID-19 crisis. The authors are certain that the study findings reinforce policy implications for regulators, policymakers and financial institutions. The study findings are also useful and relevant if the real estate sector experiences a crisis in the future.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2022-0173
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Development of a housing quality (HQ) scale in the context of Pakistan
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Authors: Ummer Farooque, Muhammad Usman Awan, Muhammad Shafiq
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to develop a scale for measuring housing quality in the context of Pakistan. The inductive and deductive approaches for item generation have been combined, and items have been purified using multistage expert review. Data was collected from a sizeable purposive sample of 445 respondents, and exploratory and confirmatory factor approaches used for assessing psychometric properties of the scale. The result is a 21-item scale covering five dimensions, namely, Design and Construction Quality, Neighborhood Quality, Adequacy of Space, Quality of Institutional Services and Proximity of Basic Amenities. This study contributes to housing quality literature by deepening our understanding of the concept of housing quality in the context of Pakistan, the world’s fifth most populous country. The findings of the study have important implications for both theory and practice.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-06
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2023-0011
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Do expansionary and contractionary monetary policy have a symmetric impact
on housing permits across the USA'-
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Authors: Mohsen Bahaman-Oskooee, Hesam Ghodsi, Muris Hadzic, Hardik Marfatia
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of asymmetric impact of monetary policy on housing permits issued in each state of the USA. The methodology and approach are based on the linear ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approach to error-correction modeling and asymmetric cointegration. The linear models predict that money supply impact housing permits in 28 states in the short run and only nine states in the long run. However, the asymmetric effects are far more pervasive, highlighting the restrictive nature of the linear model. The results from the nonlinear model show at least one lag of positive and/or negative changes in money supply significantly impacts housing permits in nearly all states. Even in the long run, housing permits in 32 states share a long-run relationship with positive and/or negative changes in money supply. The authors also find contractionary monetary policy has a greater influence on housing permits in most states compared to expansionary policy. For the first time, the authors use state-level data and asymmetric approach to assess the impact of monetary policy on house permits issued in each state of the USA.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-06
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2022-0181
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Young adults’ experience of housing and real estate chatbots in India:
effort expectancy moderated model-
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Authors: Blesson Varghese James, David Joseph, Nisha Daniel
Abstract: This study aims to recognize the role of information system (IS) model on young adults’ experience of housing and real estate chatbots. This model of IS takes into account the quality of information, the quality of system and the quality of service. This study uses a sample frame for analysis which comprises young adult population in India, i.e. between the ages of 18 and 35. A questionnaire consisting of five components was used to collect information in a structured manner. The 386 responses thus collected were analysed using the structural equation model. It was found that there is a significant influence of the quality of information, quality of system and quality of service on young adults’ experience of housing and real estate chatbots. The findings also showed that there is moderation role of effort expectancy between the quality parameters and young adults’ user experience of housing and real estate chatbots. This study focusses exclusively on the young adults from various parts of India. Future research can consider larger population categories across age groups and across sectors employing chatbots. This study will enable in-depth understanding of IS model – quality dimensions’ relation with the user experience. In particular, housing and real estate organisations will profit from the expanded usage of artificial intelligence through chatbots for user correspondence and communication. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is first of its kind, as it investigates how IS model – quality dimensions affect the young adults’ experience of housing and real estate chatbots in India. This study also ventures into identifying the moderation role of effort expectancy between the quality dimensions as per IS model and young adults’ experience of housing and real estate chatbots. This study will be useful for the stakeholders of housing and real estate industry.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-04-04
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2023-0004
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Mental and general health at the edges of owner occupation
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Authors: N.T. Khuong Truong, Susan J. Smith, Gavin Wood, William A.V. Clark, William Lisowski, Rachel Ong ViforJ
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to consider one test of a well-functioning housing system – its impact on wellbeing. Exploring one indicator of this, this study aims to track changes in mental and general health across a mix of tenure transitions and financial transactions in three jurisdictions: Australia, the UK and the USA. Using matched variables from three national panel surveys (Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia, British Household Panel Survey/Understanding Society and Panel Study of Income Dynamics) over 17 years (2000–2017) to capture the sweep of the most recent housing cycle, this study adopts a difference-in-difference random-effects model specification to estimate the mental and general health effects of tenure change and borrowing behaviours. There is an enduring health premium associated with unmortgaged owner-occupation. Mortgage debt detracts from this, as does the prospect of dropping out of ownership and into renting. A previously observed post-exit recovery in mental health – a debt-relief effect – is not present in the longer run. In fact, in some circumstances, both mental and general health deficits are amplified, even among those who eventually regain homeownership. Though there are cross-country differences, the similarities across these financialised housing systems are more striking. The well-being premium traditionally associated with owner occupation is under threat at the edges of the sector in all three jurisdictions. In this, there is cross-national convergence. There may therefore be scope to introduce policies to better support households at the edges of ownership that work across the board for debt-funded ownership-centred housing systems. This paper extends the duration of a previous analysis of the impact of tenure transitions and financial transactions on well-being at the edges of ownership in the UK and Australia. The authors now track households over nearly two decades from the start of the millennium into a lengthy (post-global financial crisis) era of declining housing affordability. This study adds to the reach of the earlier study by adding a general health variable and a third jurisdiction, the USA.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2022-0180
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Do real estate investment companies profit from house price growth'
Evidence from Portugal-
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Authors: António Manuel Cunha, Ana Pinto Borges, Miguel Ferreira
Abstract: This study aims to study the sensitivity of nonlisted real estate investment companies’ accounting earnings to house prices. This study evaluates whether house price changes determined these companies’ return on equity (ROE) or if other factors influenced the industry’s profitability beyond house price growth. The authors collected a ten-year sample with the aggregate ROE of Portugal’s real estate investment companies, split by regions, and data on house prices and the per capita gross domestic product as a control variable. The authors ran a national-level time series with the canonical cointegrating regression estimator, which is robust to a small sample size; the authors also performed a regression on regional-level panel data with the common correlated effects mean group estimator, thus allowing slope coefficient heterogeneity and controlling for cross-sectional dependence. The authors also ran ordinary least squares regressions as a means of comparison. This study found that an increase in the house price is not translated into an increase in the aggregate ROE. The results are robust with a reduced survivorship-biased sample, meaning that even the best-succeeded real estate investment companies do not have their accounting ROE dependent on house price growth. The sample size is small and specific to one country. This paper did not study the housing market structure to verify whether it operates under monopolistic competition, which could further explain the attained results. Policy decision-makers should know that there are no excess profits in the real estate investment companies’ industry because of house price growth that could be subject to windfall taxes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the connections between house prices and real estate investment companies’ accounting earnings have never been studied.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2023-0007
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Low-income housing policy in Iran (1990–2020): lessons and
modifications-
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Authors: Moslem Zarghamfard, Mohammadreza Rezaei, Hassan F. Gholipour
Abstract: The housing policies targeting low-income households have not been effective to address the housing needs of target groups in Iran over the past four decades. According to the World Bank’s data on population living in slums (% of urban population) in Iran in 2018 was 25% which is slightly higher than the rate 23% of upper-middle-income countries. This study aims to understand what major revisions are required in the process of housing policymaking to have more effective policies. The authors conduct one-to-one interviews with 41 housing experts and apply discourse analysis and interpretive–structural modeling to achieve the goals. The panel of experts argue that the success of housing policies in Iran depends on the following: all academic disciplines should be included in the process of housing policymaking process; land policymaking should be modified; housing policy is a regional issue, and it should be designed and implemented differently in each province; main modifications are required in the tax and tenancy system; and new policies are required to push vacant houses into the rental market. This study is a prescriptive study based on a general trend (four decades).
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2022-0153
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Quantile connectedness among real estate investment trusts during
COVID-19: evidence from the extreme tails of distributions-
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Authors: Hongxia Tong, Asadullah Khaskheli, Amna Masood
Abstract: Given the evolving market integration, this study aims to explore the connectedness of 12 real estate investment trusts (REITs) during the COVID-19 period. The connectedness of 12 REITs was examined by considering three sample periods: full period, COVID peak period and COVID recovery period by using the quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) approach. The findings ascertain that REIT markets are sensitive to COVID, revealing significant connectedness during each sample period. The USA and The Netherlands are the major shock transmitters; thus, these countries are relatively better options for the predictive behavior of the rest of the REIT markets. In contrast, Hong Kong and Japan are the least favorable REIT markets with higher shock-receiving potential. The study recommends implications for real estate industry agents and investors to evaluate and anticipate the direction of return connectedness at each phase of the pandemic, such that they can incorporate those global REITs less vulnerable to unplanned crises. Apart from these implications, the study is limited to the global REIT markets and only focused on the period of COVID-19, excluding the concept of other financial and health crises. This study uses a novel approach of the quantile-based VAR to determine the connectedness among REITs. Furthermore, the present work is a pioneer study because it is targeting different time periods of the pandemic. Additionally, the outcomes of the study are valuable for investors, policymakers and portfolio managers to formulate future development strategies and consolidate REITs during the period of crisis.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2022-0166
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and
regional real estate markets: evidence from TVP-VAR extended joint
connectedness approach-
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Authors: Haobo Zou, Mansoora Ahmed, Quratulain Tariq, Komal Akram Khan
Abstract: The real estate markets may be significantly influenced by the uncertainty in global economic policy. This paper aims to evaluate the time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and regional real estate markets to understand how regional real estate markets and uncertainty in global economic policy are related throughout time. The current study includes the monthly data from April 2007 to August 2022 of major regions (i.e. Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa, North America and Latin America). Moreover, the authors use the time-varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) approach for the analysis. The finding revealed a significant level of connectedness among global economic policy uncertainty and selected regional real estate markets. The result highlights more than 80% connectivity between the two variables, which makes the current study valuable. Furthermore, results determine Africa and North America are the shock transmitters; thus, they are considered safe-haven for investors to invest in these markets. The main novelty is that this research highlights the time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and five regional real estate markets (Africa, Asian Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America) using TVP-VAR. Furthermore, the authors used the standard and poor daily real estate investment trust (REIT) indices for the selected REIT markets. Finally, this research suggests practical implications for real estate investors, property developers, stakeholders, policymakers and managers to revise their current policies to maintain the real estate market stability during economic and political uncertainty or in other uncertain situations.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2022-0176
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- The effects of housing price on the mortgage debt in Malaysia: new
evidence from FMOLS method-
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Authors: Hafizah Hammad Ahmad Khan
Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of housing price on mortgage debt accumulation while considering the structural break effects associated with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). To determine the existence of a long run relationship among the variables, this study used a Johansen cointegration test. The long run model was then estimated using the fully modified ordinary least square method and reported for both the model with and without a structural break associated with the GFC. The findings demonstrate a moderate positive relationship between housing price and mortgage debt, with the impact of the GFC is positive but insignificant. The household’s lack of responsiveness to the GFC may be attributed to their optimistic expectations and confidence in the Malaysian housing market. Findings of this study provide some guidance to policymakers and the banking sector in predicting household borrowing behavior during future economic crises. The increase in housing prices and mortgage debt after the GFC has been a concern for many countries, including Malaysia. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the relationship between housing prices and mortgage debt in Malaysia and sheds light on the impact of the GFC on household borrowing behavior. The study’s contributions include providing new evidence to the underexplored topic, enhancing the robustness and reliability of the empirical results and providing insights into the importance of testing for structural breaks in time series analysis.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2022-0167
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Dynamic effects of geopolitical risks and infectious diseases on real
estate markets-
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Authors: Denis N. Yuni, Immaculata N. Enwo-Irem, Christian Urom
Abstract: Geopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have focused on the effects of these risks on different financial assets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this related literature by examining the dynamic effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–induced equity market volatility on regional and global house price indexes. This paper explores the asymmetric effects of infectious diseases and GPRs on house prices across different market conditions using the quantile regression approach. This technique enables us to examine the nonlinear asymmetric effects of GPRs and infectious diseases on both global and regional house price indexes using daily data from January 1, 2011, to June 3, 2022. It focuses on both the effects of a composite measure of GPR as well as the disaggregated effects of threats and acts (war) on the real estate markets under different market conditions. The main findings of this study demonstrates that the effects of geopolitical and infectious diseases–related risks vary differently across regional real estate markets and the nature of the GPR. In particular, the effects of geopolitical threats are stronger than those of geopolitical acts, especially for the European, Asia-Pacific and North American regions during bullish market periods. Except for the effects of geopolitical threats during real estate market downturns, the African real estate market appears to be insulated from the effects of GPRs across all market conditions. Also, the authors show that infectious diseases increase losses in real estate investments when the market condition is bearish for all markets and could extend toward the normal market period for the North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, across all the market conditions, the effects of the composite index of GPRs are not significant for the Asia-Pacific and European regional markets. Results are mixed for the remaining markets, especially for the global market. Whereas during bearish market periods, the effect is positive, it becomes negative when the market condition become normal and insignificant when it becomes bullish. For the North American and African regional markets, the effect is positive under the bearish market state. Increase in equity market volatility due to infectious diseases as well as conflicts and tensions among major powers, including potential risks of financial instability, all lead to significant increase in shocks to financial markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the asymmetric and comparative effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–related equity market volatility on real estate investments across different regions and market conditions. Because of the complexity of these risks and policy shifts, and the characteristics and heterogeneity of different regional financial markets, the impacts of shock from these risks are intuitively diverse, with practical implications for portfolio management.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0130
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- The effect of proximity and spatial dependence on the house price index
for Dar es Salaam-
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Authors: Frank Nyanda
Abstract: This study aims to examine the effect of proximity and spatial dependence on the house price index for the nascent market Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Despite the ongoing housing market transactions, there is no single house price index that takes into account proximity and spatial dependence. The proximity considerations in question are proximal to arterial roads, public hospitals, an airport and food markets. Previous studies on sub-Saharan Africa have focused on the ordinary least squares (OLS)-based hedonic model for the index and ignored spatial and proximity considerations. Using the OLS and spatial econometric approach, the paper tests for the significance of the two effects – proximity and spatial dependence in the hedonic price model with year dummy variables from 2010 to 2019. The paper then compares the three indices in the following configurations: without the two effects, with proximity factors only, and with both effects, i.e. proximity and spatial dependence. The inclusion of proximity factors and spatial dependence – spatial autocorrelation – seems to improve the hedonic price model but does not significantly improve the house price index. However, further research should be called for on account of the nascent nature of the market. The paper brings new knowledge by demonstrating that it may not be necessary to take into account proximity factors and spatial dependence for the Dar es Salaam house price index.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-03-02
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0136
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- The impact of immigration on urban housing prices in Indonesia
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Authors: Farida Nurkhayati, Ardyanto Fitrady
Abstract: Rural–urban migration has led to an increase in the community’s need for housing in the migration area. The demand for housing is getting higher while the land availability does not increase so that house prices will continue to increase. This study aims to estimate the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in Indonesia. This study examines the effect of immigration on urban housing prices at the city level in Indonesia by using 14 major cities data from 2012 to 2020 to build a panel data model. The model also incorporates urban economic conditions as control variables. From the national level, the authors find that inter-regional migration has a significant and positive impact on urban housing prices. Based on the results, this paper suggested addressing the volatility of house prices through the provision of decent and affordable housing improvement to meet the growing needs and demands of the immigrant population. This study still has several limitations: the sample of cities used is not comprehensive enough, and the time period used is not long enough; the spatial impact on house prices is not taken into account, and the effect of migrant characteristics in each city has not been considered. There is limited research on the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in city levels, especially in the case of Indonesia. In addition, recent migration is used to proxy the immigration pattern. This paper provides a valuable contribution to the empirical literature on the effect of immigration at the city level in developing countries.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-02-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2022-0114
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Housing in the greater Paris area as an inflation hedge'
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Authors: Yasmine Essafi Zouari, Aya Nasreddine
Abstract: Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. This study aims to demonstrate that residential assets in “Grand Paris” are a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component. In this study, the physical residential markets in 127 communes in Paris and the Parisian first-ring suburbs are considered as potential asset classes. We simplified the analysis by clustering the 127 communes into five homogenous groups using ascending hierarchical classification (AHC). Then, we test the hedging ability of these groups within a mixed asset portfolios using both correlation and regression analysis. This paper presents an analysis of the “Grand Paris” housing market and its inflation hedging ability with comparison to other financial asset classes. Results show that the five housing groups act as a highly positive hedge against unexpected inflation. Furthermore, cash and bonds seem to provide, respectively, a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant hedge against expected inflation. Also, indirect listed real estate demonstrates little correlation with inflation, which makes us reject its hedging ability contrary to physical residential real estate. The inflation topic: although several researches exist that question the hedging property of real estate, very few concentrate on physical residential assets and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the only one that targets the “Grand Paris” area. Residential assets of the “Grand Paris” communes are confirmed to be a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component thanks to its capital appreciation rather than income one. Also, we show that the listed real estate in France (Sociétés d’Investissement Immobilier Cotée) does not provide the same hedging properties contrary to the US real estate investment trusts (REITs) who demonstrate this ability. Listed real estate could thus not be used interchangeably with housing to protect from inflation in the French market. Protection of investors against inflation and in particular in the face of its return to France in 2022. Reassuring promoters and investors of the interest of residential investment projects in “Greater Paris” and of the potential that this holds. Inflation takes a chunk out of the purchasing power of money and thereby erodes the real value of people’s finance. Investors and households who seek protection from inflation erosion should invest in direct housing, and in particular within areas that are experiencing an effective metropolization process. The originality of the study is precisely relative to the geographical area studied. The latter has experienced favorable economic conditions for several years and offers interesting fundamentals to explore and exploit in investment strategies that prove capable of protecting against imminent inflation. The database is specific to this project and has been built through the compilation of several sources and with the support of BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-02-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2022-0118
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Brand anthropomorphism’s impact on real estate purchase decisions of
young buyers in India and the underlying reliance on spatial memory-
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Authors: Andrea Rodrigues, Benny J. Godwin, Jossy P. George
Abstract: Assessing anthropomorphic tendency in relation to real estate purchase decisions and analysing the elements of friendliness, aggressiveness, pleasure and arousal as a link to the spatial memory of the consumer. This study aims to help brands and advertisers in the real estate industry to create meaningful consumer relationships by using elements that are associated with positive spatial experience. By formulating a detailed questionnaire with adapted variables from proven research and a multilayered approach of theoretic and practical analysis, this paper situates the identified variables in the plane of space and customer experience. By using structural equation modeling, this study analyses a sample data of 411 consumers and their response to elements of housing. The findings of this study showed that variables of friendliness, aggressiveness, pleasure and arousal significantly impact consumer’s real estate purchase decision; however, anthropomorphic tendency does not have a significant impact. Through theoretical analysis, it was found that spatial memory may have a role in the visual and display of the variables. The merit of this paper lies in the discussion it has raised with regard to the intersection between theoretics of space and the chosen variables. In the field of business and management, often philosophical implications of spatiality may not be actively associated with numerical computation. This paper not only looks at brand anthropomorphism’s impact on real estate purchase decisions but also looks at friendliness and other mentioned variables as significantly impacting purchase decisions and linked to memory, space and affiliation.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-02-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2022-0178
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- The relationship between macroeconomic variables on residential property
price: case study in Malaysia before and during COVID-19-
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Authors: Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain, Abdol Samad Nawi
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage. The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage. The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-02-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2022-0013
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- How much to invest for house purchase' The consumer purchase intention
perspective of real estate investment decision-
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Authors: Shahriar Kabir, Zakia Binte Jamal, Bindu Proshad Kairy
Abstract: This study is based on the consumer purchase intention (CPI) in real estate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the link between CPI and preferred individual investment capacity in buying real estate properties. This study investigates if commonly known factors of CPI such as attitude, social power or subjective norms, perceived behavior power or control, location, surrounding environment and socialization can influence a consumer’s preferred investment amount when buying a house, either for own use or for rental purpose. A total of 334 respondents participated in this study. The survey data was analyzed using factor analysis technique, ordinary least square technique and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood technique. This study finds that location, surrounding environment, property/construction papers, roads, mosque/temple and fire services significantly influence the preferred investment amount of a real estate investor. This study suggests that a link exists between CPI and real estate investment decision through factors such as location, surrounding environment, legal documentation and communication facility. These identified CPI factors require serious consideration by the real estate developers and their financing partners.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-02-03
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2022-0151
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- The effect of social capital on housing prices: panel data analysis by
province in Turkey-
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Authors: Abdulmuttalip Pilatin, Ali Hepşen, Onur Kayran
Abstract: This study aims to reveal whether social capital has an effect on the housing price index in Turkey, which is a developing country. The research was carried out by using the data on the basis of 81 provinces of Turkey in a 12-year period covering the years 2007–2018. The data were subjected to panel data regression analysis and the related models were tested using the Driscoll-Kraay (1998) Estimator. According to the results of the analysis, it was understood that there is a negative and significant relationship between social capital (SC1) and the housing price index. The results were corroborated by susceptibility testing. As the level of social capital rises in the provinces in Turkey, the manipulative and opportunistic behavior tendencies of individual and corporate house sellers decrease. These results support the principal–agent theory and theory of moral hazard, which constitute the theoretical background of the study. No study has been found in the literature on the effect of social capital on housing prices. This situation constitutes the main motivation source of the study and shows its originality.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-01-24
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2022-0170
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Does loadshedding affect the housing market in South Africa' Some
empirical evidence-
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Authors: Amogelang Marope, Andrew Phiri
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of electricity power outages on the local housing market in South Africa. This study uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and quantile autoregressive distributive lag (QARDL) models on annual time series data, for the period 1971–2014. The interest rate, real income and inflation were used as control variables to enable a multivariate framework. The results from the ARDL model show that real income is the only factor influencing housing price over the long run, whereas other variables only have short-run effects. The estimates from the QARDL further reveal hidden cointegration relationship over the long run with higher quantile levels of distribution and transmission losses raising the residential price growth. Overall, the findings of this study imply that the South African housing market is more vulnerable to property devaluation caused by power outages over the short run and yet remains resilient to loadshedding over the long run. Other macro-economic factors, such as real income and inflation, are more influential factors towards long-run developments in the residential market. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the empirical relationship between power outages and housing price growth.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-01-11
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2022-0148
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- An Islamic principle-based integrated solution for China’s housing
affordability issues-
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Authors: Yaxin Ma, Fauziah Md Taib, Nusirat Ojuolape Gold
Abstract: This study aims to merge the world’s proven ways of housing finance, including musharakah mutanaqisah, housing cooperatives and real estate crowdfunding, to present an alternative housing unaffordability solution based on the Islamic finance principle. It is intended to reduce the burden of funding for both sides (consumers and developers) and create win–win chances for all stakeholders, including intermediaries. By moving away from debt financing and merging the features of crowdfunding and cooperative, it is hopeful that the burden of home ownership will no longer be the case. This paper presents the opinions of potential Chinese homebuyers (minority Muslims and most non-Muslims) and a few industry experts toward the proposed model via a mixed research method. According to the findings, the majority of respondents agreed with the proposed paradigm. Just concerned that China’s lack of community culture and trust could pose a major threat to implementation. However, this paper argues that Chinese local governments may perform pilot testing in places where Islamic culture is prevalent. Their unique community culture and fundamental understanding of Shariah law may affect the viability of the proposed model. The proposed model would increase the applicability of Islamic finance as a way of protecting the social order of communities in the spirit of upholding justice and fairness. A new type of housing loan based on musharakah mutanaqisah may squeeze out the real estate bubble and provide stakeholders with a multidimensional investment channel. In particular, the study identifies the impact of Chinese Islamic financing on government and cultural needs. It presents possible challenges for implementing the proposed model in reality and helps bridge the gap between theory and practice.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-01-10
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2022-0152
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- Examining key macroeconomic determinants of serviced apartments price
index: the case of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia-
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Authors: Chin Tiong Cheng, Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling
Abstract: Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence index (CF), existing stocks (ES), incoming supply (IS) and completed project (CP) on serviced apartment price changes. To achieve more accurate, quality price changes, a serviced apartment price index (SAPI) was constructed through a self-developed hedonic price index model. This study has collected 1,567 transaction data in Kuala Lumpur, covering 2009Q1–2018Q4 for price index construction and data were analysed using the vector autoregressive model, the vector error correction model and the fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) (FMOLS). Results of the regression model show that only GDP, ES and IS were significantly associated with SAPI, with an R2 of 0.7, where both ES and IS have inverse relationships with SAPI. More precisely, it is predicted that the price of serviced apartments will be reduced by 0.56% and 0.21% for every 1% increase in ES and IS, respectively. Therefore, government monitoring of serviced apartments’ future supply is crucial by enforcing land use-planning regulations via stricter development approval of serviced apartments to safeguard and achieve more stable property prices. By adopting an innovative approach to estimating the response of price change to supply and demand in a situation where there is no price indicator for serviced apartments, the study addresses the knowledge gap, especially in terms of understanding what are the key determinants of, and to what extent they influence, the SAPI.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2023-01-03
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2022-0162
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
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- House price dynamics under lower leverage: the case of metropolitan cities
in India-
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Authors: Sudhanshu Sekhar Pani
Abstract: This paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the dynamics. The author explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics, using data for 35 Indian cities with a million-plus population. The research methodology uses panel econometrics allowing for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationary data. The author tests for spatial differences and analyses the income elasticity of prices, the role of construction costs and lending to the real estate industry by commercial banks. Long-term fundamentals drive the Indian housing markets, where wealth parameters are stronger than supply-side parameters such as construction costs or availability of financing for housing projects. The long-term elasticity of house prices to aggregate household deposits (wealth proxy) varies considerably across cities. However, the elasticity estimated at 0.39 is low. The highest coefficient is for Ludhiana (1.14), followed by Bhubaneswar (0.78). The short-term dynamics are robust and show spatial heterogeneity. Short-term momentum (lagged housing price changes) has a parameter value of 0.307. The momentum factor is the crucial dynamic in the short term. The second driver, the reversion rate to long-term equilibrium (estimated at −0.18), is higher than rates reported from developed markets. This research applies to markets that require some home equity contributions from buyers of housing services. Stakeholders can characterise stable housing markets based on long-term fundamental value and short-run house price dynamics. Because stable housing markets benefit all stakeholders, weak or non-existent mean reversion dynamics may prompt the intervention of policymakers. The role of urban planners, and local and regional governance, is essential to remove the bottlenecks from the demand side or supply side factors that can lead to runaway prices. Existing literature is concerned about the risk of a housing bubble due to relaxed credit norms. To prevent housing market bubbles, some regulators require higher contributions from home buyers in the form of equity. The dynamics of house prices in markets with higher owner equity requirements vary from high-leverage markets. The influence of wealth effects is examined using novel data sets. This research, documents in an emerging market context, the observations cited in low-leverage developed markets such as Germany and Japan.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-29
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-10-2022-0161
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Elderly condominium attributes that enhance resident satisfaction and word
of mouth: evidence from Thailand-
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Authors: Kanokwan Pimchan, Chonlatis Darawong
Abstract: This study aims to examine the influence of condominium attributes on resident satisfaction and word of mouth from the perspectives of the elderly in Thailand. Data were collected from 338 elderly residents through a questionnaire survey and analysed by using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling procedures. The results showed that the strongest predictor of resident satisfaction was design functionality, followed by social environment, safety and security and service quality. In addition, the strongest predictor of word of mouth was safety and security, followed by design functionality, proximity, service quality and social environment. The data were drawn at the level of the overall characteristics of elderly residents. People may be different in terms of their demographic characters such as gender, age, and user experience. The study suggests that condominium developers and designers should pay attention to design functionality both physically and mentally such as suitable materials, lighting and common areas. Moreover, the developers should focus on the proximity of the nearest hospitals, safety and security measures, well-trained security personnel and social activity arrangement. Elderly condominium markets are increasingly growing as a result of the ageing society in Thailand. However, very few empirical studies investigate condominium attributes that affect resident satisfaction and word of mouth provided by real estate developers. The paper aims to determine driving factors that enhance the better well-being of elderly residents.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0137
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Network analysis of comovements among newly-built residential house price
indices of seventy Chinese cities-
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Authors: Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang
Abstract: Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the monthly newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities during a 10-year period spanning January 2011–December 2020 for understandings of issues related to their interdependence and synchronizations. Analysis here is facilitated through network analysis together with topological and hierarchical characterizations of price comovements. This study determines eight sectoral groups of cities whose house price indices are directly connected and the price synchronization within each group is higher than that at the national level, although each shows rather idiosyncratic patterns. Degrees of house price comovements are generally lower starting from 2018 at the national level and for the eight sectoral groups. Similarly, this study finds that the synchronization intensity associated with the house price index of each city generally switches to a lower level starting from early 2019. Results here should be of use to policy design and analysis aiming at housing market evaluations and monitoring.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0134
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Predictors of home insurance purchase: the homeowners’ knowledge,
perceived benefits and perceived vulnerability towards disaster losses-
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Authors: Tanuj Mathur, Ujjwal Kanti Paul
Abstract: Home insurance is widely recognised as a tool for mitigating economic risk associated with natural disasters. This study aims to analyse the influence of homeowners’ home insurance knowledge (both objective and subjective types), perceived benefits (PB) and perceived vulnerability towards disaster loss (PVUL) on their intention to purchase (ITP). This research makes use of survey data collected from 394 respondents (the homeowners) residing in various parts of India. The structural equation modelling is used to verify 11 hypotheses proposed in the study. The findings indicate that both objective knowledge (OK) and subjective knowledge (SK) of home insurance have significant influence on homeowners’ benefit perception and PVUL. The homeowners’ PB of home insurance negatively affect PVUL. The OK of home insurance has a stronger influence on homeowners’ ITP home insurance than SK while the homeowners benefit perceptions and PVUL significantly affects homeowners’ ITP home insurance. These findings confirms that if homeowners are knowledgeable about home insurance, they perceive the plans as more beneficial and feel less vulnerable about catastrophic events, resulting in positive intentions towards purchasing them. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive research that assesses the Indian homeowners’ knowledge, PB and PVUL in influencing their ITP home insurance. The finding of this paper will assist both public and private insurance companies in India and similar markets in designing and implementing effective strategies to sell home insurance policies.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-15
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2022-0127
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Oil prices and gold prices on housing market in China: novel findings from
the bootstrap approach-
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Authors: Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof, Turgut Tursoy
Abstract: This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021. This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables. The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-15
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0132
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Development risk and unit size within the UK property market
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Authors: Cassandra Caitlin Moore
Abstract: This paper aims to explore the relationship between market pricing and design quality within the development industry. Currently, there is a lack of research that examines real estate at the property level. Development quality is widely believed to have diminished over the past decades, while many investors seem uninterested in the design process. The study aims to address these issues through a pricing model that integrates design attributes. It is hoped that empirical findings will invite broader stakeholder interest in the design process. The research establishes a framework for assessing spatial compliance across residential developments within London. Compliance is assessed across ten boroughs, with technical space guidelines used as a proxy for design quality. Transaction prices and spatial assessments are aligned within a hedonic pricing model. Empirical findings are used to establish whether undermining spatial standards presents a significant development risk. Findings suggest a relationship between sale time and unit size, with “compliant” units typically transacting earlier than “non-compliant” units. Almost half of the 1,600 apartments surveyed appear to undermine technical guidelines. It is suggested that an array of design attributes be explored that extend beyond unit size. Additionally, future studies may consider the long-term implications of design quality via secondary transaction prices. Practical implications include the development of a more scientific approach to design valuation. This may enhance the position of product design management within the development industry and architectural services. Social implications may include improvement in residential design. An innovative approach combines a thorough understanding of both design and economic principles.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-14
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0142
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Spatial variation of the determinants affecting urban land value in
Thiruvananthapuram, India-
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Authors: B.V. Binoy, M.A. Naseer, P.P. Anil Kumar
Abstract: Land value varies at a micro level depending on the location’s economic, geographical and political determinants. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive assessment of the determinants affecting land value in the Indian city of Thiruvananthapuram in the state of Kerala. The global influence of the identified 20 explanatory variables on land value is measured using the traditional hedonic price modeling approach. The localized spatial variations of the influencing parameters are examined using the non-parametric regression method, geographically weighted regression. This study used advertised land value prices collected from Web sources and screened through field surveys. Global regression results indicate that access to transportation facilities, commercial establishments, crime sources, wetland classification and disaster history has the strongest influence on land value in the study area. Local regression results demonstrate that the factors influencing land value are not stationary in the study area. Most variables have a different influence in Kazhakootam and the residential areas than in the central business district region. This study confirms findings from previous studies and provides additional evidence in the spatial dynamics of land value creation. It is to be noted that advanced modeling approaches used in the research have not received much attention in Indian property valuation studies. The outcomes of this study have important implications for the property value fixation of urban Kerala. The regional variation of land value within an urban agglomeration shows the need for a localized method for land value calculation.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0135
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Determinants of millennials’ acceptance towards tawarruq home financing
in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia-
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Authors: Faizah Panggi, Hanudin Amin, Imran Mehboob Shaikh
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the millennials’ intention to choose tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia. The primary data were gathered via the questionnaire survey administered among Islamic banking customers in Sandakan, Sabah. Data obtained were analysed via multiple regression analysis using the software, Statistical Package for Social Sciences. This study found that attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, religiosity and knowledge in muamalat had a positive significant relationship towards millennials’ intention to choose tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah. This study used the sample size by inviting over 150 participants who filled the questionnaires and the area of coverage for the current study was limited to Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia. Besides, the contributions of this study were confined to those factors examined in the research’s conceptual framework. The results obtained through this study can help muamalat practitioners in providing the best practice of tawarruq home financing in the locality at best. In addition, this study also helps to guide managers of Islamic banks to plan better offers of the facility among local folks. This study integrated religiosity and knowledge in muamalat in explaining millennials’ acceptance of tawarruq home financing in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-12-07
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0067
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- The asymmetric effects of real variables on real housing prices: a
nonlinear ARDL analysis for Turkey-
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Authors: Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat
Abstract: This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices. This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10. The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices. This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-11-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0143
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Spatial analysis of housing prices in Tehran city
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Authors: Seyedeh Mehrangar Hosseini, Behnaz Bahadori, Shahram Charkhan
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to identify the situation of spatial inequality in the residential system of Tehran city in terms of housing prices in the year 2021 and to examine its changes over time (1991–2021). In terms of purpose, this study is applied research and has used a descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of this research is the residential units in Tehran city 2021. The average per square meter of a residential unit in the level of city neighborhoods was entered in the geographical information system (GIS) in 2021. Moran’s spatial autocorrelation method, map cluster analysis (hot and cold spots) and Kriging interpolation have been used for spatial analysis of points. Then, the change in spatial inequality in the residential system of Tehran city has been studied and measured based on the price per square meter of a residential unit for 30 years in the 22 districts of Tehran by using statistical clustering based on distance with standard deviation. The result of spatial autocorrelation analysis with a score of 0.873872 and a p-value equal to 0.000000 indicates a cluster distribution of housing prices throughout the city. The results of hot spots show that the highest concentration of hot spots (the highest price) is in the northern part of the city, and the highest concentration of cold spots (the lowest price) is in the southern part of Tehran city. Calculating the area and estimating the quantitative values of data-free points by the use of the Kriging interpolation method indicates that 9.95% of Tehran’s area has a price of less than US$800, 17.68% of it has a price of US$800 to US$1,200, 25.40% has the price of US$1,200 to US$1,600, 17.61% has the price of US$1,600 to US$2,000, 9.54% has the price of US$2,000 to US$2,200, 6.69% has the price of US$2,200 to US$2,600, 5.38% has the price of US$2,600 to US$2,800, 4.59% has the price of US$2,800 to US$3,200 and finally, the 3.16% has a price more than US$3,200. The highest price concentration (above US$3,200) is in five neighborhoods (Zafaranieh, Mahmoudieh, Tajrish, Bagh-Ferdows and Hesar Bou-Ali). The findings from the study of changes in housing prices in the period (1991–2021) indicate that the southern part of Tehran has grown slightly compared to the average range, and the western part of Tehran, which includes the 21st and 22nd regions with much more growth than the average price. There is massive inequality in housing prices in different areas and neighborhoods of Tehran city in 2021. In the period under study, spatial inequality in the residential system of Tehran intensified. The considerable increase in housing prices in the housing market of Tehran has made this sector a commodity, intensifying the inequality between owners and non-owners. This increase in housing price inequality has caused an increase in the informal living for the population of the southern part. This population is experiencing a living situation that contrasts with the urban plans and policies.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-10-31
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0087
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Exploring multigenerational co-residence in the United States
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Authors: Wei He, Shaomeng Jia
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the increasing trend of multigenerational co-living in the USA and to research the socioeconomic and cultural determinants of such decision. This study uses the 2017 American Housing Survey data to run descriptive and regression analysis. The authors find household income appears consistently to be the most significant factor determining multigenerational co-residence decision across all household compositions. Latino households are most likely to co-reside with multiple generations, followed by Asian and African American households. Immigrants tend to live in multigenerational co-residential housing units with smaller sizes and more impoverished neighborhoods, but show greater flexibility in making residential arrangements once they gain better education. In addition, older householders or female householders are significantly more likely to co-reside with multiple generations. Living in metropolitan areas has no impact on co-residence choice, although some evidence suggests that multigenerational co-residential families tend to live in inferior neighborhoods. This study provides updated evidence on multigenerational co-residence choice in the contemporary United States. The findings provide evidence on how households make residential choices in response to financial hardships and contribute to the theoretical understanding of the variations of such decisions among immigrants and different ethnic and aging groups. This study on multigenerational co-residence choice imposes important practical implications. The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic creates ideal research setting to study how households cope with the tremendous uncertainties in the job markets and financial markets. Although multigenerational co-living may work well for some households with lower or moderate-income for financial reasons, it is not an attractive option for every family. Sharing a home with multiple generations can be challenging. Policymakers should design policies and programs to provide households with guidance on how to live peacefully in multigenerational settings and make multigenerational co-living an appealing and cost-effective housing option for American families of all means. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing new evidence on the determinants of multigenerational co-residence decision. This study’s findings are fundamental to guide policymakers in carrying out policies and programs aimed at providing a more appealing and cost-effective housing arrangement for American families. The evidence on the senior and minority subsamples are especially meaningful as the vast majority of the baby boom generation in the USA is aging and substantial growth is expected in multigenerational households over the next several decades. Understanding the increasing burden of old-age depression in aging societies will help policymakers prioritize public resources in city planning to address the needs of this rapidly growing population.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-10-21
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0089
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Conducting techno-economic analyses of early-stage designs for net-zero
water and energy affordable homes-
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Authors: Kurt Wurthmann
Abstract: This study aims to provide and illustrate the application of a framework for conducting techno-economic analyses (TEA) of early-stage designs for net-zero water and energy, single-family homes that meet affordable housing criteria in diverse locations. The framework is developed and applied in a case example of a TEA of four designs for achieving net zero-water and energy in an affordable home in Saint Lucie County, Florida. Homes built and sold at current market prices, using combinations of well versus rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems and grid-tied versus hybrid solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, can meet affordable housing criteria for moderate-income families, when 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are at 2%–3%. As rates rise to 6%, unless battery costs drop by 40% and 60%, respectively, homes using hybrid solar PV systems combined with well versus RWH systems cease to meet affordable housing criteria. For studied water and electricity usage and 6% interest rates, only well and grid-tied solar PV systems provide water and electricity at costs below current public supply prices. This article provides a highly adaptable framework for conducting TEAs in diverse locations for designs of individual net-zero water and energy affordable homes and whole subdivisions of such homes. The framework includes a new technique for sizing storage tanks for residential RWH systems and provides a foundation for future research at the intersection of affordable housing development and residential net-zero water and energy systems design.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-10-10
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2022-0107
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Modeling the dynamic effects of macroeconomic factors on housing
performance in Kenya-
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Authors: Fredrick Otieno Okuta, Titus Kivaa, Raphael Kieti, James Ouma Okaka
Abstract: This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This study aims to explain the dynamic effects of the macroeconomic factors on the three indicators of the housing market performance: housing prices growth, sales index and rent index. This study used ARDL Models on time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited. The results indicate that household income, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates and exchange rates have both short-run and long-run effects on housing prices while interest rates, diaspora remittance, construction output and urban population have no significant effects on housing prices both in the short and long run. However, only household income, interest rates, private capital inflows and exchange rates have a significant effect on housing sales both in the short and long run. Furthermore, household income, GDP, interest rates and exchange rates significantly affect housing rental growth in the short and long run. The findings are key for policymaking, especially at the appraisal stages of real estate investments by the developers. The authors recommend the use of both the traditional hedonic models in conjunction with the dynamic models during real estate project appraisals as this would ensure that developers only invest in the right projects in the right economic situations. The imbalance between housing demand and supply has prompted an investigation into the role of macroeconomic variables on the housing market in Kenya. Although the effects of the variables have been documented, there is a need to document the short-run and long-term effects of the factors to precisely understand the behavior of the housing market as a way of shielding developers from economic losses.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-10-05
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0093
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Investigating the asymmetric relationship between housing prices and the
stock market in Iran: quantile-on-quantile approach-
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Authors: Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri
Abstract: The purpose of this study, the nonlinear relationship between the real estate market and the stock market was investigated in Iran. For this intent, the monthly data from 2012:4 to 2022:5 is used. In this study, the quantile-on-quantile estimation method is used, which is a combination of the nonparametric estimation methods and the quantile regression. The research results show that, in the low quantiles, the effect of stock market return on the housing market return is negative or zero. In fact, in this situation, the increasing returns in the stock market will shift part of the financial resources of the economy to the market and create stagnation or even negative returns in the housing market. This situation is seen more strongly in some other quantiles, including the 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles; in contrast, the effect of high quantiles of stock market returns is positive on the housing market. It seems that the demand in the housing market increase in a situation where the returns of the stock market are growing, and the market is in a bullish condition, and this causes an increase in the price and returns in this market. In addition, the results show that the effect of stock market returns on capital market returns is asymmetric and nonlinear.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-10-04
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0104
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- News coverage vs sentiment: evaluating German residential real estate
markets-
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Authors: Franziska Ploessl, Tobias Just
Abstract: To investigate whether additional information of the permanent news flow, especially reporting intensity, can help to increase transparency in housing markets, this study aims to examine the relationship between news coverage or news sentiment and residential real estate prices in Germany at a regional level. Using methods in the field of natural language processing, in particular word embeddings and dictionary-based sentiment analyses, the authors derive five different sentiment measures from almost 320,000 news articles of two professional German real estate news providers. These sentiment indicators are used as covariates in a first difference fixed effects regression to investigate the relationship between news coverage or news sentiment and residential real estate prices. The empirical results suggest that the ascertained news-based indicators have a significant positive relationship with residential real estate prices. It appears that the combination of news coverage and news sentiment proves to be a reliable indicator. Furthermore, the extracted sentiment measures lead residential real estate prices up to two quarters. Finally, the explanatory power increases when regressing on prices for condominiums compared with houses, implying that the indicators may rather reflect investor sentiment. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to extract both the news coverage and news sentiment from real estate-related news for regional German housing markets. The approach presented in this study to quantify additional qualitative data from texts is replicable and can be applied to many further research areas on real estate topics.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-30
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0102
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Technical condition of houses: a framework for the Czech market
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Authors: Tereza Jandásková, Tomas Hrdlicka, Martin Cupal, Petr Kleparnik, Milada Komosná, Marek Kervitcer
Abstract: This study aims to provide a framework for assessing the technical condition of a house to determine its market value, including the identification of other price-setting factors and their statistical significance. Time on market (TOM) in relation to the technical condition of a house is also addressed. The primary database contains 631 houses, and the initial asking price and selling price are examined. All the houses are located in the Brno–venkov district in the Czech Republic. Regression analysis was used to test the influence of price-setting factors. The standard ordinary least squares estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator were used in the frame of generalized linear models. Using envelope components of houses separately, such as the façade condition, windows, roof, condition of interior and year of construction, brings better results than using a single factor for the technical condition. TOM was found to be 67 days lower for houses intended for demolition – as compared to new houses – and 18 days lower for houses to refurbishment. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is original in the substitution of specific price-setting factors for factors relating to the technical condition of houses as well as in proposing the framework for professionals in the Czech Republic.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0106
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- A bibliometric analysis of six decades of academic research on housing
prices-
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Authors: Na Li, Rita Yi Man Li
Abstract: This paper aims to provide a comprehensive bibliometric study of housing prices according to the articles collected by the Web of Science (WOS). This paper studies 4,125 research papers on housing prices in the core collection database of WOS. Using VOSviewer, this paper makes a bibliometric and visual analysis of the housing prices research from 1960 to 2020 and probes into the housing prices research from five aspects: time, international cooperation, institutions author cooperation and research focuses. Keywords such as influencing factors of housing prices, analysis of supply and demand, policy and housing prices and regional cities appear frequently, which indicates the main direction of housing price research literature. Recent common keywords include regression analysis and house price forecast. Countries, like the USA started early in the study of housing prices, and the means and methods in the field of housing price research are mature, leading the forefront of housing price research. Compared with the USA and other Western developed countries, the housing price research in developing countries needs to use innovative research methods and put more effort on sustainability. Research shows that housing price is closely related to economy, and keyword cluster analysis shows that gross domestic product, interest rate, currency and other keywords related to economy are of high-frequency. This paper only uses articles from one database (WOS), which does not represent all research papers published worldwide. Some studies have been published for a long time, and the reference value to the research focuses and future research might be limited. There are many kinds of journals included in the study with different publishing frequencies, time ranges and numbers of papers. These may have some influence on the research results. The main theoretical contribution of this paper is to supplement the current academic research on housing prices. This paper reveals the key points of housing prices research and possible research problems that need attention. We can know from the future research direction and practice which can offer insights for future innovative direction.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0080
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- The impact of the mortgage on the real estate market: a study case in
Saudi Arabia-
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Authors: Samar Ajeeb, Wei Sieng Lai
Abstract: This study attempts to find the response of the real estate market to economic changes by identifying cause-effect relationships between mortgage, residential investment, and Saudi employment. A quantitative approach to analytically examine the relationship among the variables. To find out the impact of investment, mortgage and Saudi employment on the Saudi real estate growth from 1970 to 2019. All data sets were obtained from the General Authority for Statistics (GAST), Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) and World Bank Group. This study reveals a positive relationship between the mortgage and GDP in the Saudi Arabian real estate market. The same results for employment and investment; both have a positive effect on the GDP of the real estate market. Analyzing the impact of real estate financing on various industries and the extent to which it is related to employment and unemployment rates is essential for future research. Moreover, this research can be applied to different countries and compared based on similarities and differences in implementing mortgage-related policies. The government must encourage investment in various ways and establish a stable structure that ensures market stability and finds a balance between supply and demand. This study reflects the importance of real estate financing not only to individuals and governments but also to investors and business workers, and it is essential to analyze the impact of real estate financing on various industries, as well as the extent to which it is related to employment and unemployment rates. This research can be applied to different countries and compared based on similarities and differences in the implementation of mortgage-related policies. This study contributes to testing this study’s hypothesis: that mortgage positively impacts the real estate market of Saudi Arabia.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0085
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- The impact of oil price on housing prices: an empirical analysis of
Pakistan-
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Authors: Rafiq Ahmed, Hubert Visas, Jabbar Ul-haq
Abstract: This study aims to explore the impact of oil prices on housing prices using Pakistani annual data from 1973 to 2021. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests were used for unit-root testing, whereas the johansen-juselius test was used for cointegration. For the short-run, the error correction model is used and the robustness of the model is checked using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS). The cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM of Squares tests were used to check the stability of the model, while parameter instability was confirmed by the Chow breakpoint test. Finally, the impulse response function was used for causality. According to the findings, rising oil prices, among other things, have an impact on housing prices. Inflation is the single most important factor affecting not only the housing sector but also the entire economy. Lending and exchange rates have a significant impact on housing prices as well. The FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that the OLS results are robust. According to the variance decomposition model, housing prices and oil prices are bidirectionally related. The Government of Pakistan must develop a housing policy on a regular basis to develop the country’s urban housing supply and demand. It is suggested that in Pakistan, the rising oil prices is a problem for the housing prices as well as many other sectors. The government needs to explore alternative ways of energy generation rather than the heavy reliance on imported oil. Pakistan has been experiencing rising oil prices and housing prices with the rapid urbanisation and rural–urban migration. The contribution to the literature is that neither attempt (as to the best of the authors’ knowledge) has been made to check the impact of rising oil prices on housing sector development in Pakistan.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0103
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Modelling coastal externalities effects on residential housing values
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Authors: Adeyosoye Babatunde Ayoola, Adejoke Rashidat Oladapo, Babajide Ojo, Abiodun Kolawole Oyetunji
Abstract: This paper aims to examine the impact of coastline on the rental value of residential property in proximity to the coastline, using the hedonic pricing model from two perspectives. First, Model 1A–C accounted for estimating the influence of coastal amenities while controlling for other housing attributes influencing rent. Second, Model 2A–C accounted for the interaction between coastal amenities/disamenities and other housing attributes influencing rent. A survey approach was adopted for the data collection process. For both models, property values were measured in proximity to coastline using 0–250 m, 251–500 m and 0–500 m. Findings revealed that property rental value increases as we move away from the coastline when disamenities are not controlled. The results suggested that for a mean-priced home (N2,941,029 or $8,170) at the mean distance from the coastline (301.83 m), a 1% increase in distance from the coastline would result in a 0.001% or N9.77 ($0.03) increase in rental value. The implication to real estate valuers is that varying premiums should be considered when valuing a property depending on the distance to the coastline while considering other housing attributes. This research introduces a novel approach to the hedonic model for determining property values in proximity to coastal environment by estimating the influence of coastal amenities while controlling for other housing attributes influencing rent, on the one hand, and accounting for the interaction between coastal amenities/disamenities and other housing attributes influencing rent, on the other.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0071
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Demographics, dwelling type and residents’ satisfaction at Zabdah
affordable housing project, Jordan-
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Authors: Ebtesam M. Khassawneh, Fahed A. Khasawneh
Abstract: This paper aims to study the Zabdah housing project residents’ satisfaction on both dwelling and neighborhood levels. In addition, the determinants of residents’ satisfaction are studied. A mixed methodology approach was used, merging quantitative and qualitative methods. The questionnaire was developed and filled out through structured interviews. Descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression were used to understand the residents’ satisfaction levels. In addition, the chi-square test of independence was used to determine whether demographics and dwelling type were related to residents’ satisfaction. It was found that the residents’ satisfaction level with Zabdah housing was moderate on both dwelling and neighborhood levels. On the dwelling level, the tiny dwelling areas were a fundamental problem. On the neighborhood level, good neighborhood services were crucial to the success of this project, while the lack of green spaces negatively affected the quality of life of its residents. In addition, the number of family members and dwelling types were critical determinants of residents’ satisfaction. The findings can be developed into guidelines to govern the creation of better affordable residential environments. Furthermore, the successful dwelling typologies in this project can be modified to be adopted in the future. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of its kind to explore the relationship of demographics and dwelling type with residents’ satisfaction in affordable housing in Jordan.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0078
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- The effects of visual technology on price discovery for residential
listings and transactions-
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Authors: Seow Eng Ong, Woei Chyuan Wong, Davin Wang, Choon Peng Lai
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of visual technology on the price discovery process in listings of residential properties in Singapore from 2015 to 2018. The authors empirically model the effects of 360 virtual tours and drone video on four dimensions in price discovery – buyers’ arrival rate, sale probability, transaction prices and time-on-market – using a comprehensive data set for the residential properties in Singapore. The analysis shows that the availability of virtual tours or drone video in a listing increases the arrival rate from potential buyers, the probability of a successful sale and the selling price. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that technologically enhanced tools improve the quality of information and the marketability of property. However, listings with virtual tours tend to be associated with longer marketing time, which is consistent with the prediction of the information overload hypothesis. This paper extends the housing and price discovery literature by examining how technologically enabled new information affects property transactions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to consider the impact of drone video on property market outcome.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0099
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- House price forecasting using the multi-level modelling method in Sydney
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Authors: Xin Janet Ge, Vince Mangioni, Song Shi, Shanaka Herath
Abstract: This paper aims to develop a house price forecasting model to investigate the impact of neighbourhood effect on property value. Multi-level modelling (MLM) method is used to develop the house price forecasting models. The neighbourhood effects, that is, socio-economic conditions that exist in various locations, are included in this study. Data from the local government area in Greater Sydney, Australia, has been collected to test the developed model. Results show that the multi-level models can account for the neighbourhood effects and provide accurate forecasting results. It is believed that the impacts on specific households may be different because of the price differences in various geographic areas. The “neighbourhood” is an important consideration in housing purchase decisions. While increasing housing supply provisions to match the housing demand, governments may consider improving the quality of neighbourhood conditions such as transportation, surrounding environment and public space security. The demand and supply of housing in different locations have not behaved uniformly over time, that is, they demonstrate spatial heterogeneity. The use of MLM extends the standard hedonic model to incorporate physical characteristics and socio-economic variables to estimate dwelling prices.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-16
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0083
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Are expensive decisions impulsive' Young adults’ impulsive housing and
real estate buying behavior in India-
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Authors: Satleen Kaur Sehra, Benny J. Godwin, Jossy P. George
Abstract: The purpose of the study is to determine website quality, materialism, psychological factors, hedonic value and social media as factors that influence the young adults’ impulsive housing and real estate buying behavior in India. In addition, this study also measures the mediating effects of social media influence between psychological factors and hedonic value and young adults’ impulsive housing and real estate buying behavior. Related literature, quantifiable variables with a five-point Likert Scale, hypothesis testing and mediators are used to study the model. A systematic questionnaire that was divided into six sections was used. A total of 385 valid responses were collected and analyzed through a structural equation model. The results suggest that materialism, psychological factors and social media have a considerable impact on young adults’ impulsive housing and real estate buying behavior. The findings also ascertained that website quality and hedonic value do not have a considerable impact on young adults’ impulsive housing and real estate buying behavior. This study is limited to the responses of young consumers from a limited number of brokers and regions in India. Future studies could be more widespread across the globe. As per the review of existing literature, this research is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to determine the factors affecting the impulse buying decision mainly in the housing and real estate sector with the target consumers being young.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-14
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0090
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- House price information flows among some major Chinese cities: linear and
nonlinear causality in time and frequency domains-
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Authors: Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang
Abstract: With the rapid-growing house market in the past decade, the purpose of this paper is to study the important issue of house price information flows among 12 major cities in China, including Shanghai, Beijing, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhuhai, Fuzhou, Suzhou and Dongguan, during the period of June 2010 to May 2019. The authors approach this issue in both time and frequency domains, latter of which is facilitated through wavelet analysis and by exploring both linear and nonlinear causality under the vector autoregressive framework. The main findings are threefold. First, in the long run of the time domain and for timescales beyond 16 months of the frequency domain, house prices of all cities significantly affect each other. For timescales up to 16 months, linear causality is weaker and is most often identified for the scale of four to eight months. Second, while nonlinear causality is seldom determined in the time domain and is never found for timescales up to four months, it is identified for scales beyond four months and particularly for those beyond 32 months. Third, nonlinear causality found in the frequency domain is partly explained by the volatility spillover effect. Results here should be of use to policymakers in certain policy analysis.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-09-09
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0098
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Identifying the barriers to housing finance in Ethiopia
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Authors: Masresha Belete Asnakew, Minale Kassahun Amogne
Abstract: The accessibility of housing for many purposes is more influenced by the functioning of housing market. As access to housing is an expensive and long-term exertion of household, looking for appropriate housing fund is necessary whether the source of fund is private saving or mortgage. However, insufficient finance in Ethiopia is a reason for inaccessible of land and housing by the low- and middle-income people. This study aims to identify the barriers to access finance in the study area. This study adopted a qualitative and quantitative research approach to investigate the barriers of housing finance. To undertake and increase the relevance of this study, primary and secondary, qualitative and quantitative data were used. Primary data were collected from respondents; focal person’s and key informants. Both descriptive statistical analysis and relative importance index analysis was deployed for this study. In addition, the quantitative data were analyzed using logistic regresion model. The result of this study found that in Ethiopia at all, there is no enough mortgage and long-term lending banks. The result of this study inspects some variables significantly affect the access to finance. The result of this study will help the government in buildup of financial institutions in many perspectives. Financial institutions and clients may also be beneficiary through stiffen housing finance system. The barriers of access to finance were not sufficiently studied in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study may be a pioneer for the researchers, as it did not cover the whole area of the country to study and also appoint the government to reform the financial sector based on the findings of the researches.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-26
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0074
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- An examination of the influence of urban violence on rental value of
residential property in Kaduna metropolis-
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Authors: Adedayo Ayodeji Odebode, Shittu Oluwakayode Aro, Alirat Olayinka Agboola
Abstract: The paper aims to examine the influence of urban violence on residential property rental value in Kaduna metropolis. This is motivated by the spate of insurgency and the attendant destructions of land and properties in the past few years in the study area. This paper adopted a survey of key sites of urban violence and also a total enumeration of all the 67-estate surveying and valuation firms in the study area to elicit from them vital information on trends on rental from 2011 to 2019. The data obtained were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential methods of statistical analysis. The result of this study revealed that among other sources of urban violence, violence fueled by ethnic affiliations/convictions is the only significant factor that influenced rental value of residential property in the study area. The regression analysis shows that ethnic violence accounted for 21.6% of the variability observed in residential property rental value over the period of study. Furthermore, the correlation result showed that ethnic violence is negatively correlated (−0.458) and significantly related to residential property rental value. This study concluded that the emergence of urban violence in Kaduna metropolis contributed to a fall in the rental value of residential property in the study area. This study thus suggested policy directions that could engender harmonious coexistence among different ethnic groups in the study area. This study is expected to enhance improvement in residential property rental value in Kaduna metropolis through increase assurance to security of lives and property.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-23
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0057
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Antecedents of customer mortgage shopping satisfaction: the mediating role
of search intensity, evidence from the NSMO survey-
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Authors: Srinivasa Reddy N, Jayanthi Thanigan
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the antecedents of customer satisfaction during mortgage purchases. Mortgage demand in the USA has reached an all-time high because of an increase in housing demand after COVID-19. Nonetheless, several customers are dissatisfied with their service providers. Customers who actively search the market gain more information about mortgage providers and use this information to define expectations for lenders. The only way there will be customer satisfaction is if lenders meet these expectations. Therefore, it is economically significant for mortgage lenders to discover the antecedents of mortgage satisfaction. In this study, the partial least squares approach was used to test the hypothesis that satisfaction was influenced by objective knowledge, familiarity and search intensity among a sample of customers (n = 4,512) from the National Survey of Mortgage Originations who had purchased a mortgage in the USA between 2019 and 2020. The results of structural modelling showed that familiarity (β = 0.23 and p = 0.01) with and knowledge (β = 0.16 and p = 0.01) of mortgages significantly affected consumer satisfaction during mortgage purchase. Search intensity (p = 0.01) mediated the relationship between knowledge, familiarity and satisfaction. The primary implication is that mortgage service providers should prioritise educating customers about the mortgage buying process on their websites and in person. So managers must actively assist clients in having realistic expectations. Second, mortgage companies should establish a presence on third-party mortgage comparison websites to ensure that customers actively consider alternatives, thereby increasing customer satisfaction. This study is unique in being an exploratory study to examine the antecedents of mortgage satisfaction using a public data set. This study uniquely examines the National Survey of Mortgage Originations data set with partial least squares approach to examine underlying customer attitudes.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-22
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0094
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- An empirical investigation of home buying behavior in a high-context
culture: a strategic marketing-oriented approach-
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Authors: Erdener Kaynak, Ali Kara, Azamat Maksüdünov
Abstract: The housing/real estate sector is one of the most important sectors in any country. However, existing marketing literature on the home buying behavior and the decision-making process is still in the early stage of development. The purpose of this study is to examine the home buying behavior from the consumers’ perspective in a high-context culture, namely, Kyrgyzstan and its managerial and/or public policy implications to other countries which are at a similar level of socio-economic development as Kyrgyzstan. Using a questionnaire, data for the study (n = 300) is collected from households in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Personal interviews were used to collect data from the four administrative regions of Bishkek. Results of this study show that the physical, environmental and financial dimensions of the homes influenced consumers’ home buying intentions. A few statistically significant differences in terms of preferences for the proximity of the property to schools and shopping districts, having public sewer and water connections, and safety characteristics of the neighborhood were found between the first-time homebuyers and the repeat homebuyers. The most important limitation of the study is the use of convenience sampling. Although the sample size is reasonably large, the selection of the responses was done based on using convenience and connections. Representativeness of the results may be limited. Along with the physical, environmental and financial dimensions of the homes, home buying is a high-involvement decision; it is not as much of an emotional purchase but rather a main residence and a good long-term value for Kyrgyz households. Both marketing and social stimuli did not have any statistically significant effect on purchase intentions. Therefore, housing and real estate developers should focus on understanding how their offering meets individual customers’ tangible and intangible expectations and assist them in their highly involved decision-making process. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to conduct an empirical study to analyze the home buying decisions of Kyrgyz households. This study contributes to marketing literature by filling the existing gaps in understanding various facets of the high-context consumers’ home buying decision-making.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0095
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Explainable housing price prediction with determinant analysis
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Authors: Ean Zou Teoh, Wei-Chuen Yau, Thian Song Ong, Tee Connie
Abstract: This study aims to develop a regression-based machine learning model to predict housing price, determine and interpret factors that contribute to housing prices using different data sets available publicly. The significant determinants that affect housing prices will be first identified by using multinomial logistics regression (MLR) based on the level of relative importance. A comprehensive study is then conducted by using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to examine the features that cause the major changes in housing prices. Predictive analytics is an effective way to deal with uncertainties in process modelling and improve decision-making for housing price prediction. The focus of this paper is two-fold; the authors first apply regression analysis to investigate how well the housing independent variables contribute to the housing price prediction. Two data sets are used for this study, namely, Ames Housing dataset and Melbourne Housing dataset. For both the data sets, random forest regression performs the best by achieving an average R2 of 86% for the Ames dataset and 85% for the Melbourne dataset, respectively. Second, multinomial logistic regression is adopted to investigate and identify the factor determinants of housing sales price. For the Ames dataset, the authors find that the top three most significant factor variables to determine the housing price is the general living area, basement size and age of remodelling. As for the Melbourne dataset, properties having more rooms/bathrooms, larger land size and closer distance to central business district (CBD) are higher priced. This is followed by a comprehensive analysis on how these determinants contribute to the predictability of the selected regression model by using explainable SHAP values. These prominent factors can be used to determine the optimal price range of a property which are useful for decision-making for both buyers and sellers. By using the combination of MLR and SHAP analysis, it is noticeable that general living area, basement size and age of remodelling are the top three most important variables in determining the house’s price in the Ames dataset, while properties with more rooms/bathrooms, larger land area and closer proximity to the CBD or to the South of Melbourne are more expensive in the Melbourne dataset. These important factors can be used to estimate the best price range for a housing property for better decision-making. A limitation of this study is that the distribution of the housing prices is highly skewed. Although it is normal that the properties’ price is normally cluttered at the lower side and only a few houses are highly price. As mentioned before, MLR can effectively help in evaluating the likelihood ratio of each variable towards these categories. However, housing price is originally continuous, and there is a need to convert the price to categorical type. Nonetheless, the most effective method to categorize the data is still questionable. The key point of this paper is the use of explainable machine learning approach to identify the prominent factors of housing price determination, which could be used to determine the optimal price range of a property which are useful for decision-making for both the buyers and sellers.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-08
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2022-0025
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Can housing investment hedge against inflation'
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Authors: Binh Thi Thanh Nguyen
Abstract: This paper aims to test the hedging ability of housing investment against inflation in Japan and the USA during the period 2000–2020. This study applies the deep learning method and The exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (1, 1) model with breaks. Within the asymmetric framework, it is found that housing returns (HR) can hedge against inflation in both these markets, which mentions that when investing in the housing market in Japan and the USA, investors are compensated for bearing from inflation. This result is consistent with Fisher’s hypothesis. Especially, the empirical results show that the risk-return tradeoff is available in Japan’s housing market and not available in the US housing market. Any signal of a high inflation rate – referred to as “bad news” – may cause a drop in HR in Japan and a raise in the USA. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is one of the first studies using the deep learning method (long short-term memory model) to estimate the expected/unexpected inflation rates.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-05
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-06-2022-0084
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Determinant of millennial generation in adapting housing microfinance case
Indonesia chapter-
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Authors: Ahmad Subagyo, Akhmad Syari’udin, Akhmad Yunani
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the variables that affect residential real estate demand by millennials based on hedonic demand functions. The method of analysis in this study is robust regression ordinary least square using cross-sectional data from Indonesian Family Survey Wave 5 (IFLS-5) with a sample of 1.672 households of male married millennials. The aspect of millennial generation characteristics is significant on the variables of income, number of dependents, education level and presence of millennial generation in urban and rural areas. While the variable of age of the millennial generation does not significantly influence expenditure for residential real estate. All aspects of the millennial generation’s spending behavior consisting of spending on food consumption, education, health, telephone and internet, transportation, recreation and the variable of the presence of urban and rural millennial generations significantly affect the spending of the millennial generation for residential real estate with the assumption of ceteris paribus. The implication of this study brings together the characteristics of the millennial generation with the aspect of behavior to expenditure for residential real estate assets relevant to the needs of the housing microfinance market. In this study, it was found that the character and behavior of the millennial generation towards spending on residential real estate can be factors in determining policies by both the government and financial institutions that will serve the millennial generation through housing microfinance. This implication study, it was found that the needs and behavior of the millennial generation towards the demand for housing microfinance principles according to their character and behavior. The difference between the results of this study and previous studies is possible because previous studies did not differentiate the unit of analysis for the millennial generation.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-08-04
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0063
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Flood hazards and housing prices: a spatial regression analysis for Hat
Yai, Songkhla, Thailand-
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Authors: Sukampon Chongwilaikasaem, Tanit Chalermyanont
Abstract: Global warming exacerbates sea level rise and extreme weather events that cause severe flooding, resulting in lost productivity and property damage. To reduce the impact of flooding, residents are avoiding purchasing homes in high-risk areas. There are numerous studies on the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in developed countries, but few in developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand. This study uses spatial-lag, spatial error and spatial autoregressive lag and error (SARAR) models to analyze the effect of flood risk on property prices. The main analysis examines the degree of flood risk and housing rental prices from our survey of 380 residences. To test the robustness of the results, the authors examine a different data set of the same samples by using the official property valuation from the Ministry of Finance and the flood risk estimated by the Southern Natural Disaster Research Center. The SARAR model was chosen for this study because of the occurrence of spatial dependence in both dependent variable and the error term. The authors find that flood risk has a negative impact on property prices in Hat Yai, which is consistent with both models. This study is one of the first to use spatial econometrics to analyze the impact of flood risk on property prices in Thailand. The results of this study are valuable to policymakers for benefit assessment in cost–benefit analysis of flood risk avoidance or reduction strategies and to the insurance market for pricing flood risk insurance.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-07-29
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0053
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Factors determining housing prices: empirical evidence from a developing
country’s Pakistan-
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Authors: Muhammad Azam Khan, Niaz Ali, Himayatullah Khan, Lim Chia Yien
Abstract: This study aims to explore empirically the impact of various factors/determinants on housing prices at the country level as well as in Lahore, the most populous metropolitan city of the most populous province Punjab, Pakistan. This study uses monthly data ranging from 2013M1 to 2020M1 on variables used in the study. Based on the stationarity results, the method of robust least square is used as an estimation technique. The validity of initial results is also authenticated by canonical cointegration regression. The empirical result reveals that all included variables significantly affect housing prices both at country level as well as in Lahore. This study found negative impact of regressor age, real exchange rate and urbanization on housing prices, whereas the positive impact of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, foreign remittances, broad money and real interest rate on housing prices in the case of Pakistan was found. On the other hand, results unveiled the negative impact of regressor age (proportion of population aged between 15 and 64), real exchange rate and urbanization on housing prices, whereas the positive impact of GDP per capita, foreign remittances, broad money and real interest rate on housing prices in Lahore metropolitan city was unveiled. Based on the extant literature survey, this is a more holistic study of its kind that uncovers the macroeconomic determinants by considering the demand side, supply side and demographic factors of escalated housing prices in Pakistan, so that proper policies can be adopted to keep the housing sector stable. Empirical findings are helpful to acquire an enhanced understanding of how the housing price is determined and form a base for government to tackle the housing affordability problem.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-07-07
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0064
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Heuristics and cognitive biases in the housing investment market
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Authors: Ana Cascão, Ana Paula Quelhas, António Manuel Cunha
Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the heuristics and cognitive biases described by behavioral finance in the investment decision-making process of Portugal’s housing market. In a first step, the authors applied an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to assess the impact of heuristics and cognitive biases on investors’ decision-making. In a second step, the authors run a structural equation model (SEM) diagram path to assess if the sociodemographic characteristics of housing market investors determine the identified heuristics and if the heuristics condition the investors’ investment criteria. Herd behavior and the heuristics of representativeness, availability and anchoring influence the housing market’s investors’ behavior in their decision-making process. Investors with above-average income show higher levels of overconfidence. Investors showing higher levels of overconfidence also tend to be more sensitive to the house price under analysis for investment. Women tend to show higher levels of the availability and anchoring heuristic. In turn, housing market investors showing higher levels of availability and anchoring heuristic tend to be more sensitive to the price and location of the house under analysis for investment. The explained variance of the EFA is below 50%, and the root mean square of approximation of the SEM is above the threshold of 0.05. These indicators are evidence of the models’ fragility. Governments and regulators can better prevent real estate bubbles if they monitor behavioral biases and heuristics of housing investors together with quantitative indicators. Realtors can profit from adapting their marketing strategy and commercial communication to investors of sociodemographic groups more prone to a specific type of heuristics. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that combines the contributions of behavioral finance with Portugal’s housing investment market and the first study connecting heuristics to investment criteria.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-07-05
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0073
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Sorting (and costing) the way out of the housing affordability crisis in
Auckland, New Zealand-
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Authors: Mario A. Fernandez, Jennifer L.R. Joynt, Chad Hu, Shane L. Martin
Abstract: This paper aims to explore the impact of the joint operation of affordability policies and whether their impact is meaningful relative to the size of the affordability crisis. Its purpose is to construct the features of a comprehensive policy package linked to a measurable outcome: solving the affordability crisis in Auckland. This study investigates the scale and nature of an affordability package that responds to three research and policy questions: What should the rate of annual growth of affordable housing be to solve the affordability crisis' Consequently, how long would it take to solve it' And how much would that policy package cost' In this paper, the authors argue that the disjoint operation of affordability policies is one of the reasons why their impacts relative to the size of the affordability crisis has been small or negligible. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that affordability is as much about raising households’ incomes as it is about lowering housing prices. This study uses a modelling-based framework to simulate some of the levers that local and central governments have to affect housing prices and affordability: direct intervention on the supply-side and subsidies. Specifically, this simulates retention-and-targeting (RT) programs and subsidies to raise deposits via shared ownership (SO) schemes. This study finds that solving the affordability crisis would take a decade if the supply of affordable housing increases by at least 45% annually. With the introduction of RT and SO programs, it could still be solved within a decade, where the required growth rate decreases to 35%. However, for growth rates between 5% and 10%, the policy goal is met in approximately 40 years, and the SO program becomes exceedingly expensive. Housing affordability is one of the hottest policy issues in New Zealand and the developed world. In the past decade, a number of affordability policies have been introduced with limited success due to their lack of interoperability and siloed efforts. Results in this paper should be interpreted as the boundaries of what is feasible and realistic in the realm of affordability policies. Therefore, its contribution relies on investigating the multiple effects if the financial, administrative and political barriers to RT and SO programs could be overcome. Its scope is a blueprint for the design of policies in other cities where unaffordability has become extreme.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0061
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Central air conditioning, air pollution and housing location: evidence
from Lebanon-
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Authors: Fairouz Al Gharib, Walid Marrouch
Abstract: This study aims to examine the impact of local air pollution on the presence of central air conditioners in apartments in Lebanon. This study applies a Probit model in a unique data set on apartments’ listings for sale in Lebanon collected by Marrouch and Sayour (2021). The data set includes information about air pollution concentrations, dwellings’ characteristics, geographic features and location characteristics. This study finds that local air pollution positively and significantly affects the presence of central air conditioning in dwellings. The estimated increase in the probability of having central air conditioning for a one microgram per cubic meter increase in Particulate Matter 2.5 concentration is 6.4%. The data set in this study is cross-sectional and thus does not capture variations over time for the examined variables. The Probit regression approximates an equation that can predict the presence of central air conditioners in dwellings, which might be useful to policymakers. The findings suggest that local pollution is a significant factor in household behavior in Lebanon. This paper adds to the scant literature studying the effects of air pollution on the presence of central air conditioning in developing countries. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to study the impact of air pollution on the presence of central air conditioning in the Middle East and North Africa Region.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-28
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2022-0075
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Monetary policy and house prices in emerging markets
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Authors: Cengiz Tunc, Ali Gunes
Abstract: This study aims to focus on two-way interaction between monetary policy and house prices in emerging economies. This study uses panel structural vector autoregressive model. The results show that real house prices decrease in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock. However, relative to advanced economies, the reaction of the prices is limited in emerging economies, pointing out the structural differences in emerging economies including the small size of the mortgage market and the lack of a well-functioning secondary market in housing finance. This study further finds that monetary policy is tightened in response to a positive shock to house prices. However, this response is also weak when compared to that response in advanced economies. These findings suggest that house price developments should not be prior target for monetary policies in emerging economies unless they become problem for financial stability or inflationary concerns. Using a sample of inflation targeting emerging countries, this study contributes to the literature by conducting both panel setting and single-country analysis to explore the two-way dynamic relationships between the monetary policy and housing market in emerging economies.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0041
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- An assessment of real estate cycles and their impact on property values in
Gaborone, Botswana-
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Authors: Johnson Kampamba, Simon Kachepa, Kgalaletso Lesobea
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to assess real estate cycles and their impact on property values in Gaborone, Botswana. Investors and real estate professionals in Botswana rarely assess property cycles when purchasing property. This study therefore, aims to assess whether real estate cycles do exist, their duration and the type of real estate cycle that Botswana experiences. Data was collected from primary and secondary sources. This included sourcing out information at the Deeds Registry Office in Gaborone on residential property sales and a questionnaire to 100 property investors. A record was made of properties that were sold for the period of 16 years starting from the year 2000 to 2016. Secondary data on the other hand was also collected from published and unpublished books, academic journals, professional journals, magazines, reports and monographs. A quantitative approach was used in this study. Data was analysed using Microsoft Excel and subsequently presented in form of tables and graphs. The findings from the literature review revealed that there are four phases in the real estate cycles (recovery, expansion, oversupply and recession) and each has distinct features that an investor must be aware of to avoid consequences in the property market. The results from the data analysis revealed that real estate cycles do exist in Botswana as identified during the past 16 years. The cycle that Botswana experiences is called the kitchen cycle. It was also evident that Botswana experienced three cycles lasting five to six years each. Furthermore, it was discovered that all phases in the real estate cycles affect property values. There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders. Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate. The current system at the deeds office is cumbersome and time consuming, thus making it difficult for the researchers and possibly the public to analyse the property market. This study therefore, may encourage the Deeds Registry Office to computerize their records. There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders. Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind in Botswana to extend the knowledge of real estate cycles and their impact on property cycles in Botswana.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-14
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0037
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in
Turkey-
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Authors: Tacinur Akça
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to make an analysis of the short- and long-term effects of inflation, exchange rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loans and housing volume on housing inflation in Turkey, taking into account the multiple structural breaks. Multiple structural break Lee–Strazicich unit root test, autoregressive distributed lag bound test and Granger causality test based on error correction model were used. There is both a short- and long-term relationship between housing prices and macrovariables. Housing prices are mostly affected by housing interest rates, housing volume, real exchange rate and total housing loans in the short run. In the long run, it is mostly affected by total housing loans, housing volume and housing interest rates. The variables used in the analysis are: housing price index, consumer price index, dollar rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loan amount and domestic loan volume. Because the data that variables started common is 2010:M01, the period starting from this date until 2021:M12 is considered. The research covers only Turkey as a country. Determining the micro- and macroeffects of housing prices can always offer solutions for the problems experienced in housing supply and housing demand. While investigating housing prices, there are no studies in which total housing loans and housing volume are included in the model together. However, it is important to analyze the effect of the current conjuncture, in which there has been constant increases in foreign exchange rates and high inflation in recent years, on housing prices in Turkey. In this study, investigating these effects by using econometric methods that include structural breaks also increases the original value of this study.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-13
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0059
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Exclusive impacts of lifestyles on preference for interior public space of
high-rise building apartment-
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Authors: Hung Vu Nguyen, Long Thanh Do, Cuong Van Hoang, Phuong Thi Tung Nguyen
Abstract: While interior public space can be one of the most important criteria in designing high-rise residential buildings in urban environments in practitioners’ opinion, this study aims at investigating the importance of this criterion from consumers’ lifestyle standpoint. In particular, this study aims to examine the effects of different lifestyle orientations on consumers’ preference for this housing feature. Three relevant lifestyles are investigated including independence, family-orientation and homebody. Survey data were collected from 331 owners of high-rise apartments in three residential buildings in urban areas. The research results revealed significant and positive effects of independence and homebody lifestyle orientations on consumers’ preference for interior public spaces. Interestingly, a family-oriented lifestyle was found to negatively moderate the effect of a homebody lifestyle on the preference, providing evidence for possible exclusive impacts of different lifestyle orientations on the preference. This study emphasizes the exclusive impacts of different lifestyles on consumers’ preference for housing features that need to be considered by developers and marketers when designing consumer positions and marketing strategies.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-07
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0051
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- The impact of apartment vacancies on nearby housing rents over multiple
time periods: application of smart meter data
Open Access Article-
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Authors: Hiroki Baba, Chihiro Shimizu
Abstract: This study aims to explore the spatial externalities of apartment vacancy rates on housing rent by considering multiple vacancy durations. This research uses smart meter data to measure unobservable vacant houses. This study made a significant contribution by applying building-level smart meter data to housing market analysis. It examined whether vacancy duration significantly affected apartment rent and whether the relationship between apartment rent and vacancy rate differed depending on the level of housing rent. The primary finding indicates that there is a significant negative correlation between apartment rent and vacancy duration. Considering the spatial externalities of apartment vacancy rates, the apartment vacancy rates of surrounding buildings did not show any statistical significance. Moreover, quantile regression results indicate that although the bottom 10% of apartment rent levels showed a negative correlation with all vacancy durations, the top 10% showed no statistical significance related to vacancies. This study measures the extent of spatial externalities that can differentiate taxation based on housing vacancies. The findings indicate that landlords have asymmetric information about their buildings compared with the surrounding buildings, and the extent to which price adjusts for long-term vacancies differs depending on the level of apartment rent.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-02
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0035
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Hedonic housing values in a transition economy: the case of Tashkent
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Authors: Onur Ozsoy, Muzaffarjon Ahunov
Abstract: This paper aims to scrutinize the value of houses explained by their location in Central Asia’s largest city – Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. The city was completely rebuilt after a devastating earthquake of 1961 and since the country was under the centrally planned regime, houses followed a common standard and style. This allows minimizing the error from omitting possible intrinsic characteristics in a hedonic model, while measuring the impact of location on housing values. This study uses unique data on housing values and characteristics harvested from classified adverts. This study deliberately focused on data between 2013 and 2016, when Uzbekistan was characterized as hesitant in economic reforms. Therefore, residential buildings constructed during the Former Soviet Union dominated all parts of the city in the analysis period. The results are based on the hedonic pricing model. The results suggest that locational characteristics are relatively more important than intrinsic characteristics. This study finds that proximity to the city center and access to subway stations significantly increase housing values. The opposite is true for the case of proximity to a wastewater treatment plant. Surprisingly, on the contrary to the authors’ expectations access to a park has no economically significant impact on housing values. The results, therefore, call for an integrated approach for city planning. The first and most important contribution of this study to the field of housing economics is that it is the first study done for Uzbekistan, the most populated Central Asian country, and it is a case study for other Central Asian countries. The second contribution of the study is that, after a long and meticulous study, the determinants of housing prices were analyzed by taking into account all possible intrinsic and extrinsic properties of houses with the similar characteristics, over a unique data set created from approximately 18,000 observations from classified pages of a major newspaper published every Thursday in Tashkent City. The final contribution of the study is that it offers new perspectives and policy recommendations to the housing market actors in Uzbekistan.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-06-02
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0042
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- How does transfer duty relates to housing demand in the city of
Johannesburg, South Africa'
Open Access Article-
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Authors: Koech Cheruiyot, Thabelo Ramantswana
Abstract: Acknowledging that housing forms a large part of households’ and country’s long-term wealth, the South African Government has implemented various housing-related policies towards that end. Among these, the government has extended transfer duty exemption to house buyers – both individuals or natural persons and companies or other parties – to enable them buy houses of their choices since January 1950 to date. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between historical transfer duty exemption and housing demand in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) over a longer period, where a comprehensive data set on house sales and other predictors was available. This paper uses multi-year data on repeat house sales from 2010 to 2020 and other macro- and socio-economic variables to test the relationship between transfer duty exemption and housing demand in the CoJ, a core part of Gauteng province, South Africa. After cleaning the original data, final analysis was based on 139,121 repeat sales transactions. Data was analyzed in R. Findings suggest that, when macro-, socio-economic and yearly effects are controlled, transfer duty has a damping effect on housing demand in the CoJ. The results were consistent across all the estimated models. While the motivation behind the implementation of transfer duty exemption in South Africa continues to encourage home ownership, these findings are unexpected because they do not offer support to that policy intention. These unexpected results are partly explained by the prevailing complexities of the housing market and related policies and the progressive tax regime. However, there are welfare effects that all buyers achieve across the housing market ecosystem. This paper extends work on housing markets research in South Africa through the investigation of mortgage-based housing market in the CoJ that presents one of the densest, developed, bustling and growing housing market in the country. It also presents a fertile ground where all the effects of all the housing policies coalesce – in the statistical sense, one can control the effect of some aspects of housing policies, while appropriately testing the link between a specific policy (in this case, transfer duty exemption) and housing dynamics.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-31
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2022-0030
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Influence of Saudi Vision 2030 on housing-related macroeconomic variables
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Authors: Mohammad Hariri
Abstract: This study aims to explore the effect of Saudi Vision 2030 and its government initiatives on macroeconomic variables related to housing. This exploratory study used an empirical–analytical approach. Based on secondary data, a set of hypotheses was contrasted to verify whether there has been any change in the trends of macroeconomic variables related to housing after Saudi Vision 2030 entered into force. The results show that the trend of percentage of housing ownership went from a continuous decrease to accelerated growth since the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030. However, the effect of these advances is not observed in non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) or in the economic activities of the construction, real estate and financial services sectors. This study notes that despite successful housing outcomes, it appears that Saudi Vision 2030 does not have a positive impact on non-oil GDP. Consequently, government entities should review the degree to which other economic activities contribute to non-oil GDP. A limitation of the study was that the GDP of housing construction and marketing and that of granting mortgage loans were not specifically available, nor were data on public and private investment made for implementing government initiatives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore the effect of Saudi Vision 2030 on housing and its contribution to the economy.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-27
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0046
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- An exploration of off-campus private student housing in Praygaraj, India
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Authors: Alok Tiwari
Abstract: By using exploratory mixed methods, this study aims to present the investigation of the existing situation of private off-campus student accommodation at the University of Allahabad (UoA) in Prayagraj city. This study explored the geographical variability of student’s private rental housing in Prayagraj city of India through 721 responses from an online semi-structured questionnaire, together with 12 interviews. Moran’s I and LISA were used to determine spatial clustering of rents paid by male and female students. Results of this study reveal prevalence of unregulated with poor quality of off-campus housing in general and expensive rents in the proximity of UoA. Obtaining less responses from the female students was one of the important limitations. A win-win strategy might be formulated with a mix of innovative solutions inclusive of public private partnerships and social economy solutions woven with need-based rental housing, rekindled as the affordable rental housing complexes after COVID-19 pandemic. This study is highly beneficial to improve liveability in the student housing segment. This paper develops extensive understanding on the potential student housing segment in the Indian cities. Additionally, this paper demonstrates weak coordination between the central government policies, educational administrators and municipal officials.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2022-0016
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- The role of economic policy uncertainty in forecasting housing prices
volatility in developed economies: evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach-
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Authors: Ting Fan, Asadullah Khaskheli, Syed Ali Raza, Nida Shah
Abstract: In the past few years, numerous economic uncertainty challenges have occurred globally. These uncertainties grasp the attention of the researchers and they examine the role of economic policy uncertainties in several aspects. Therefore, this study contributes to the literature by exploring the house prices volatility and economic policy uncertainty nexus in G7 countries. The authors applied the newly introduced econometric technique, the GARCH-MIDAS model, to the sample size of January 1998–May 2021. The result shows a significant relationship between house prices volatility and economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, economic policy uncertainty acts as a significant determinant of house prices volatility. In addition, the out-of-sample also shows that the economic policy uncertainty is an effective predictor and the GARCH-MIDAS has a better predictive ability. This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to developed economies, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the GARCH-MIDAS model to analyze the relationship between housing prices volatility and economic policy uncertainty by applying more rigorous and advanced econometric techniques.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-19
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0040
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Contemporaneous causality among residential housing prices of ten major
Chinese cities-
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Authors: Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang
Abstract: This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships among residential housing price indices of ten major Chinese cities for the years 2005–2021. Using monthly data, this study uses vector error correction modeling and the directed acyclic graph for characterization of contemporaneous causality among the ten indices. The PC algorithm identifies the causal pattern and the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model algorithm further determines the causal path, from which this study conducts innovation accounting analysis. Sophisticated price dynamics are found in price adjustment processes following price shocks, which are generally dominated by the top tiers of cities. This study suggests that policies on residential housing prices in the long run might need to be planned with particular attention paid to these top tiers of cities.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-17
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0039
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Impact of urban rehabilitation: evidence from subdivided units in Hong
Kong-
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Authors: Cong Liang, Eddie Chi Man Hui, Tsz Leung Yip
Abstract: This paper aims to explore one question: to what extent does urban rehabilitation impact the housing search cost of the low-income tenants. This paper adopts the fixed effects time-on-market (TOM) model and pricing model to study the research question. Urban rehabilitation lifts the subdivided units (SDUs’) prices by around 7%. For the SDU located in old districts, urban rehabilitation gives rise to the rental price up by 11%–12%. The SDUs in the area without urban rehabilitation experience a short marketing period of 16%–17%. The SDU located in the old district that is without urban rehabilitation would have a short marketing time. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the pioneering research to investigate the relationship between rehabilitation and low-income rental housing from the improved search theory. The improved search theory posits that under the circumstance of urban rehabilitation, low-income tenants’ options are limited and the search behavior will be restricted in the affordable areas, and then TOM will be shortened. With the concentration of SDUs in Hong Kong, the test of the search theory is broken down into two hypotheses. (H1) Urban rehabilitation leads to low-income housing prices increase. (H2) Low-income housing located in areas without urban rehabilitation has a shorter TOM.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-12
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2021-0136
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Using property-level inquiry volume to quantify demand–supply balance
for existing houses: the case of the resale condominium market in Tokyo-
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Authors: Masatomo Suzuki, Chihiro Shimizu
Abstract: Houses are durable, so an imbalance between demand and supply occurs after time has passed since initial construction. The purpose of this study is to quantify the extent of this imbalance for existing houses, focusing on the heterogeneity across property segments. This study uses a unique data set on the “inquiry volume” that each property received from an online real estate portal to measure the volume of demand in relation to supply. Simple regressions are conducted in the resale condominium market across the Tokyo metropolitan area. The inquiry volume successfully tracked a recent expected trend in which demand relative to supply is stronger for condominiums in reasonably priced areas, condominiums in convenient, accessible locations, condominiums built within the last 20 years and compact and spacious units. This study also confirms that these trends cannot be captured through heterogeneity in price levels, which has been widely used in previous studies on measuring housing preferences. As an indicator of conditions in the housing market, the property-level inquiry volume has strong potential to provide useful information for supply strategies and for the sustainable use of existing housing stocks. The originality of this paper is the use of information on the buyer side, which is typically unobservable.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-05-11
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2022-0018
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Longitudinal modelling of housing prices with machine learning and
temporal regression-
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Authors: Yu Zhang, Arnab Rahman, Eric Miller
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to model housing price temporal variations and to predict price trends within the context of land use–transportation interactions using machine learning methods based on longitudinal observation of housing transaction prices. This paper examines three machine learning algorithms (linear regression machine learning (ML), random forest and decision trees) applied to housing price trends from 2001 to 2016 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, with particular interests in the role of accessibility in modelling housing price. It compares the performance of the ML algorithms with traditional temporal lagged regression models. The empirical results show that the ML algorithms achieve good accuracy (R2 of 0.873 after cross-validation), and the temporal regression produces competitive results (R2 of 0.876). Temporal lag effects are found to play a key role in housing price modelling, along with physical conditions and socio-economic factors. Differences in accessibility effects on housing prices differ by mode and activity type. Housing prices have been extensively modelled through hedonic-based spatio-temporal regression and ML approaches. However, the mutually dependent relationship between transportation and land use makes price determination a complex process, and the comparison of different longitudinal analysis methods is rarely considered. The finding presents the longitudinal dynamics of housing market variation to housing planners.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-04-25
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2022-0033
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- (A)symmetric interaction between house prices, stock market and exchange
rates using linear and nonlinear approach: the case of Iran-
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Authors: Davoud Mahmoudinia, Seyed Mohammad Mostolizadeh
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic interactive link between housing prices, stock market price and effective exchange rate in the Iranian economy for a monthly period from April, 2004, to March, 2019. In addition, for a more accurate analysis, three control and determinates variables including real interest rate, real GDP and FDI have been added to the base model. For this purpose, we will consider this issue by developing the study of Lean & Smyth (2014), Ali & Zaman (2017) and Coskun et al (2017) in the framework of ADRL and NARDL models. Also, this study analyzed the asymmetric/non-linear impact of stock market indexes and effective exchange rate on Iran’s housing inflation. Asymmetries imply to both positive and negative changes in the variables. The results obtained from the ADRL and NARDL models suggest that the existence of cointegration relationship between housing market price and its determinants. From linear model, we found that the exchange rate and stock market price have a positive effect on the real estate inflation in the short run; this relationship is also confirmed in the long run. Other empirical results indicate that the GDP stimulates housing price in both long and short run cases, while FDI and real interest rate have an opposite effect. In addition, the results provided by the asymmetric model lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of no co-integration between the variables. In addition, we found that the effect of stock price in the short and long term are asymmetric and there also is an asymmetric long-run effect of real exchange rate on the real estate price. Finally, to analyze the sensitivity, we entered two explanatory variables of inflation and money supply to the baseline equation. The finding represented that in both linear and nonlinear framework, a positive correlation between these two variables with housing prices have been proved.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-04-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2022-0008
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Short-run effects of hurricanes on the housing markets: evidence from
Florida-
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Authors: Can Dogan, Mustafa Hattapoglu, Indrit Hoxha
Abstract: Many studies have shown that the intensity and the number of hurricanes are likely to increase. This paper aims to look at the immediate effects of hurricanes on the time on the market, share of houses sold and percentage of houses with price cuts in the housing market using the metropolitan statistical area-level data in Florida. Using a difference-in-difference method, the authors estimate the impact that a hurricane has on the housing markets. The authors find that a hurricane has a positive and significant effect on the time on the market. A hurricane leads to a delay of the sale of a typical house in Florida by five days. The authors test for within-year seasonality and show that these effects change with seasonality of the housing market. Markets with seasonal housing prices tend to be affected more by hurricanes than those where housing prices are not seasonal. The authors also show that effects of a hurricane are transient and fade away in a few months. The results remain significant as the hurricane intensity changes. This is the first study to look at the short-term effects of the hurricanes and how their effects vary based on seasonality of the markets.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-04-20
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-02-2022-0024
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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- Area income, construction year and mobility of renters in Sweden: two
hypotheses about the impact of rent control
Open Access Article-
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Authors: Peter Karpestam
Abstract: This paper aims to test two hypotheses related to the supposedly negative impact of rent control on residential mobility: the mobility of renters is, first, negatively related to how attractive their residential areas are and, second, relatively high for renters living in properties built after 2005. This paper estimates logit and multinomial logit regressions and models household moves. The multinomial logit regressions separate between short- and long-distance moves and between moves to rentals and to owned dwellings. This paper uses the “relative income” of the tenants’ residential areas to proxy area attractiveness. This paper estimates regressions for entire Sweden and the three largest “commuting” regions and municipalities, respectively. The full sample provides support of both hypotheses in all regressions. Hypothesis one gets stronger support for moves to other rentals than moves to owned dwellings but about equally strong support for short- and long-distance moves. Hypothesis one obtains strongest support in Gothenburg municipality while hypothesis two obtains strongest support in the Malmö region. Also, hypothesis two obtains stronger support for short-distance moves than long-distance moves and slightly stronger support for moves to owned dwellings than those to rented dwellings. This paper does not estimate “how much” rent control affects mobility, and results cannot be used to design specific rent setting policies. Results may be sensitive to how different types of moves are defined. Efforts to reform rent setting policies in Sweden are encouraged. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper’s two hypotheses are not tested before in Sweden and can be tested without control groups.
Citation: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PubDate: 2022-04-12
DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-11-2021-0120
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2022)
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