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  Subjects -> STATISTICS (Total: 130 journals)
Showing 1 - 151 of 151 Journals sorted alphabetically
Advances in Complex Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Advances in Data Analysis and Classification     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 61)
Annals of Applied Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 39)
Applied Categorical Structures     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Argumentation et analyse du discours     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Asian Journal of Mathematics & Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Bernoulli     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9)
Biometrical Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Biometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 52)
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 18)
Building Simulation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Bulletin of Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
CHANCE     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Computational Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 37)
Current Research in Biostatistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Decisions in Economics and Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Demographic Research     Open Access   (Followers: 15)
Electronic Journal of Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Engineering With Computers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Environmental and Ecological Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
ESAIM: Probability and Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Extremes     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Handbook of Numerical Analysis     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Handbook of Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances -     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
International Journal of Quality, Statistics, and Reliability     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
International Journal of Stochastic Analysis     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
International Statistical Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
International Trade by Commodity Statistics - Statistiques du commerce international par produit     Full-text available via subscription  
Journal of Algebraic Combinatorics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Applied Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 39, SJR: 3.664, CiteScore: 2)
Journal of Combinatorial Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Computational & Graphical Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20)
Journal of Econometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 84)
Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Journal of Global Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Interactive Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Mathematics and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Nonparametric Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Probability and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Statistical Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Statistical Software     Open Access   (Followers: 21, SJR: 13.802, CiteScore: 16)
Journal of the American Statistical Association     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 72, SJR: 3.746, CiteScore: 2)
Journal of the Korean Statistical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Statistical Methodology)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Journal of Theoretical Probability     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Time Series Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Journal of Urbanism: International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30)
Law, Probability and Risk     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Lifetime Data Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Mathematical Methods of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Measurement Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Metrika     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Modelling of Mechanical Systems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Monte Carlo Methods and Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Monthly Statistics of International Trade - Statistiques mensuelles du commerce international     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Multivariate Behavioral Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Optimization Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Optimization Methods and Software     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Pharmaceutical Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Probability Surveys     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Queueing Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Research Synthesis Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Review of Economics and Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 128)
Review of Socionetwork Strategies     Hybrid Journal  
Risk Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Sankhya A     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Scandinavian Journal of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Sequential Analysis: Design Methods and Applications     Hybrid Journal  
Significance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Sociological Methods & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 38)
SourceOCDE Comptes nationaux et Statistiques retrospectives     Full-text available via subscription  
SourceOCDE Statistiques : Sources et methodes     Full-text available via subscription  
SourceOECD Bank Profitability Statistics - SourceOCDE Rentabilite des banques     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
SourceOECD Insurance Statistics - SourceOCDE Statistiques d'assurance     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
SourceOECD Main Economic Indicators - SourceOCDE Principaux indicateurs economiques     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
SourceOECD Measuring Globalisation Statistics - SourceOCDE Mesurer la mondialisation - Base de donnees statistiques     Full-text available via subscription  
SourceOECD Monthly Statistics of International Trade     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
SourceOECD National Accounts & Historical Statistics     Full-text available via subscription  
SourceOECD OECD Economic Outlook Database - SourceOCDE Statistiques des Perspectives economiques de l'OCDE     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
SourceOECD Science and Technology Statistics - SourceOCDE Base de donnees des sciences et de la technologie     Full-text available via subscription  
SourceOECD Statistics Sources & Methods     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
SourceOECD Taxing Wages Statistics - SourceOCDE Statistiques des impots sur les salaires     Full-text available via subscription  
Stata Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9)
Statistica Neerlandica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases     Hybrid Journal  
Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Statistical Methodology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Statistical Methods and Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Statistical Methods in Medical Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Statistical Modelling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Statistical Papers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Statistical Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 13)
Statistics & Probability Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Statistics & Risk Modeling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Statistics and Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Statistics and Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Statistics in Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 198)
Statistics, Politics and Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Statistics: A Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Stochastic Models     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Stochastics An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes: formerly Stochastics and Stochastics Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Teaching Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Technology Innovations in Statistics Education (TISE)     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
TEST     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
The American Statistician     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23)
The Annals of Applied Probability     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
The Annals of Probability     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10)
The Annals of Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 34)
The Canadian Journal of Statistics / La Revue Canadienne de Statistique     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews - Computational Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)

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Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Journal Prestige (SJR): 1.471
Citation Impact (citeScore): 2
Number of Followers: 33  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1573-0476 - ISSN (Online) 0895-5646
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2657 journals]
  • Risk Taking with Left- and Right-Skewed Lotteries *
    • Abstract: While much literature has focused on preferences regarding risk, preferences over skewness also have significant economic implications. An important and understudied aspect of skewness preferences is how they affect risk taking. In this paper, we design a novel laboratory experiment that elicits certainty equivalents over lotteries where the variance and skewness of the outcomes are orthogonal to each other. This design enables us to cleanly measure both skewness seeking/avoiding and risk taking behavior, and their interaction, without needing to make parametric assumptions. Our experiment includes both left- and right-skewed lotteries. The results reveal that the majority of subjects are skewness avoiding risk takers who correspondingly also take more risk when facing less skewed lotteries. Our second contribution is to link these choices to individual rank-dependent utility preference parameters estimated using a separate lottery choice protocol. Using a latent-class model, we are able to identify two classes of subjects: skewness avoiders with the classic inverse s-shaped probability weighting function and skewness neutral subjects that do not have an inverse s-shaped probability weighting function. Our results thus demonstrate the link between probability distortion and skewness seeking/avoidance choices. They also highlight the importance of accounting for individual heterogeneity.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • The modest effects of fact boxes on cancer screening
    • Abstract: As health care becomes increasingly personalized to the needs and values of individual patients, informational interventions that aim to inform and debias consumer decision-making are likely to become important tools. In a randomized controlled experiment, we explore the effects of providing participants with published fact boxes on the benefits and harms of common cancer screening procedures. Female participants were surveyed about breast cancer screening by mammography, while male participants were surveyed about prostate cancer screening by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. For these screening procedures, we expect consumers to have overly optimistic prior beliefs about the benefits and harms. We find that participants update their beliefs about the net benefits of screening modestly, but we observe little change in their stated preferences to seek screening. Participants who scored higher on a numeracy test updated their beliefs about screening benefits more in response to the fact boxes than did participants who scored lower on the numeracy test.
      PubDate: 2021-02-17
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09344-x
       
  • Broad bracketing for low probability events
    • Abstract: Individuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to accurate risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are based on “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which characterizes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets leading people to be less sensitive to probability size.
      PubDate: 2021-01-29
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09343-4
       
  • Liking the long-shot … but just as a friend
    • Abstract: I modify the skewed lottery task introduced by Grossman and Eckel (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 51(3), 2015) to eliminate the effects of loss aversion as a potentially confounding explanation for the strong preference for skewed lotteries and increase in risk taking that they observe when skew increases. I also test for framing effects by reversing the order of the task. Like previous studies, a majority of subjects prefer skewed lotteries relative to those with no skew, but this preference is dampened when loss aversion is eliminated as a confound and the order of the task is reverse. More importantly, introducing skew is unlikely to cause an increase in risk taking in this task.
      PubDate: 2021-01-14
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09342-5
       
  • The development of risk aversion and prudence in Chinese children and
           adolescents
    • Abstract: This study experimentally evaluates the risk preferences of children and adolescents living in an urban Chinese environment. We use a simple binary choice task that tests risk aversion, as well as prudence. This is the first test for prudence in children and adolescents. Our results reveal that subjects from grades 5 to 11 (10 to 17 years) make mostly risk-averse and prudent choices. The choices of 3rd graders (8 to 9 years) do not differ statistically from risk neutral benchmarks, but at the same time they make mostly prudent choices. We also find evidence for a transmission of risk preferences. There is positive correlation between all children’s and their parents’ tendency to make risk-averse choices. There is also positive correlation between girls’ and their parents’ tendency to make prudent choices.
      PubDate: 2021-01-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09340-7
       
  • Robust inference in risk elicitation tasks
    • Abstract: Recent experimental evidence suggests that noisy behavior correlates strongly with personal characteristics. Since decision noise leads to bias in most elicitation tasks, there is a risk of falsely interpreting noise-driven relationships as preference driven. This puts previous studies that found a negative relation between personality measures and risk aversion into perspective and in particular raises the question of how to achieve robust inference in this domain. This paper shows, by way of an economic experiment with subjects from all walks of life, that using structural estimation to model heterogeneity of noise in combination with a balanced design allows us to mitigate the bias problem. Our estimations show that cognitive ability is related to noisy behavior rather than risk preferences. We also find age and education to be strongly related to noise, but the personality characteristics obtained using the Big Five inventory are less related to noise and more robustly correlated to risk preferences.
      PubDate: 2020-12-10
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09341-6
       
  • Decisions under risk: Dispersion and skewness
    • Abstract: When people take decisions under risk, it is not only the expected utility that is important, but also the shape of the distribution of utility: clearly the dispersion is important, but also the skewness. For given mean and dispersion, decision-makers treat positively and negatively skewed prospects differently. This paper presents a new behaviourally-inspired model for decision making under risk, incorporating both dispersion and skewness. We run a horse race of this new model against six other models of decision making under risk and show that it outperforms many in terms of goodness of fit and shows a reasonable performance in predictive ability. It can incorporate the prominent anomalies of standard theory such as the Allais paradox, the valuation gap, and preference reversals, and also the behavioural patterns observed in experiments that cannot be explained by Rank Dependent Utility Theory.
      PubDate: 2020-11-25
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09333-6
       
  • Risk awareness and adverse selection in catastrophe insurance: Evidence
           from California’s residential earthquake insurance market
    • Abstract: How does catastrophe-risk awareness affect purchase decisions and selection patterns in the insurance market' I study this issue using data on take-up rates of earthquake insurance among homeowners in California, where a semi-public insurer coexists with private insurers. The public insurance policy charges cross-subsidized premiums and is offered through specific homeowners insurance agents. I find that for those offered the public earthquake policy, a positive demand-risk correlation exists within the insurer’s pricing territory, suggesting that people have some meaningful awareness of their risk and act on it in ways consistent with adverse selection. However, despite private insurers having the opportunity to select the lower risks by pricing at a finer level, the positive demand-risk correlation persists for them. I interpret this as a result of market friction that limits homeowners’ ability to comparison shop, and their relative insensitivity to price as compared to risk.
      PubDate: 2020-11-21
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09335-4
       
  • Political polarization in US residents’ COVID-19 risk perceptions,
           policy preferences, and protective behaviors
    • Abstract: When the novel coronavirus entered the US, most US states implemented lockdown measures. In April–May 2020, state governments started political discussions about whether it would be worth the risk to reduce protective measures. In a highly politicized environment, risk perceptions and preferences for risk mitigation may vary by political inclinations. In April–May 2020, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of 5517 members of the University of Southern California’s Understanding America Study. Of those, 37% identified as Democrats, 32% as Republican, and 31% as Third Party/Independent. Overall, Democrats perceived more risk associated with COVID-19 than Republicans, including for getting infected, being hospitalized and dying if infected, as well as running out of money as a result of the pandemic. Democrats were also more likely than Republicans to express concerns that states would lift economic restrictions too quickly, and to report mask use and social distancing. Generally, participants who identified as Third Party/Independent fell in between. Democrats were more likely to report watching MSNBC or CNN (vs. not), while Republicans were more likely to report watching Fox News (vs. not), and Third Party/Independents tended to watch neither. However, political inclinations predicted reported policy preferences, mask use, and social distancing, in analyses that accounted for differences in use of media sources, risk perceptions, and demographic background. In these analyses, participants’ reported media use added to the partisan divide in preferences for the timing of lifting economic restrictions and reported protective behaviors. Implications for risk communication are discussed.
      PubDate: 2020-11-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09336-3
       
  • Natural disaster and risk-sharing behavior: Evidence from rural Bangladesh
    • Abstract: Using a unique field experiment in rural Bangladesh, this paper investigates how exposure to a natural disaster affects risk-sharing behavior. We conducted a risk-sharing experiment that randomly assigned different levels of risk-sharing commitments to individuals who were exposed and unexposed to a recent natural disaster and asked them to form risk-sharing groups. Our results show that disaster-affected individuals are less likely to defect from risk-sharing groups, regardless of the level of ex-ante commitment. Interestingly, individuals from disaster-affected villages chose riskier bets and realized higher average returns compared with individuals from non-disaster-affected areas. Our results have important implications for the design of financial risk-transfer mechanisms in developing countries.
      PubDate: 2020-11-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09334-5
       
  • Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19
    • Abstract: In evaluating the appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a key parameter is the rate of substitution between wealth and mortality risk, conventionally summarized as the value per statistical life (VSL). For the United States, VSL is estimated as approximately $10 million, which implies the value of preventing 100,000 COVID-19 deaths is $1 trillion. Is this value too large' There are reasons to think so. First, VSL is a marginal rate of substitution and the potential risk reductions are non-marginal. The standard VSL model implies the rate of substitution of wealth for risk reduction is smaller when the risk reduction is larger, but a closed-form solution calibrated to estimates of the income elasticity of VSL shows the rate of decline is modest until the value of a non-marginal risk reduction accounts for a substantial share of income; average individuals are predicted to be willing to spend more than half their income to reduce one-year mortality risk by 1 in 100. Second, mortality risk is concentrated among the elderly, for whom VSL may be smaller and who would benefit from a persistent risk reduction for a shorter period because of their shorter life expectancy. Third, the pandemic and responses to it have caused substantial losses in income that should decrease VSL. In contrast, VSL is plausibly larger for risks (like COVID-19) that are dreaded, uncertain, catastrophic, and ambiguous. These arguments are evaluated and key issues for improving estimates are highlighted.
      PubDate: 2020-11-11
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09338-1
       
  • The forgotten numbers: A closer look at COVID-19 non-fatal valuations
    • Abstract: Our research estimates COVID-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to July 27, 2020, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As of July 27, 2020, the cumulative confirmed number of cases was about 4.2 million with almost 300,000 of them entailing hospitalizations. Due to data collection limitations the confirmed totals reported by the CDC undercount the actual number of cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. Using standard assumptions provided by the CDC, we estimate that as of July 27, 2020, the actual number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is about 47 million with almost 1 million involving hospitalizations. Applying value per statistical life (VSL) and relative severity/injury estimates from the Department of Transportation (DOT), we estimate an overall non-fatal unadjusted valuation of $2.2 trillion for the U.S. with a weighted average value of about $46,000 per case. This is almost 40% higher than the total valuation of $1.6 trillion (using about $11 million VSL from the DOT) for all approximately 147,000 COVID-19 fatalities. We also show a variety of estimates that adjust the non-fatal valuations by the dreaded and uncertainty aspect of COVID-19, age, income, and a factor related to fatality categorization. The adjustments show current overall non-fatal valuations ranging from about $1.5 trillion to about $9.6 trillion. Finally, we use CDC forecast data to estimate non-fatal valuations through November 2020, and find that the overall cumulative valuation increases from about $2.2 trillion to about $5.7 trillion or to about 30% of GDP. Because of the larger numbers of cases involved our calculations imply that non-fatal infections are as economically serious in the aggregate as ultimately fatal infections.
      PubDate: 2020-11-04
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09339-0
       
  • Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Abstract: Policies to address the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) require a balancing of the health risk reductions and the costs of economic dislocations. Application of the value of a statistical life (VSL) to monetize COVID-19 deaths produces a U.S. mortality cost estimate of $1.4 trillion for deaths in the first half of 2020. This article presents worldwide COVID-19 costs for over 100 countries. The total global mortality cost through July 2, 2020 is $3.5 trillion. The United States accounts for 25% of the deaths, but 41% of the mortality cost. Adjustments for the shorter life expectancy and lower income of the victims substantially reduces the estimated monetized losses, but may raise fundamental equity concerns. Morbidity effects of COVID-19 affect many more patients than do the disease’s mortality risks. Consideration of the morbidity effects increase the expected health losses associated with COVID-19 illnesses by 10% to 40%.
      PubDate: 2020-11-02
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09337-2
       
  • Dual choice axiom and probabilistic choice
    • Abstract: A decision maker chooses in a probabilistic manner if she does not necessarily prefer the same choice alternative when repeatedly presented with the same choice set. Probabilistic choice may occur for a variety of reasons such as unobserved attributes of choice alternatives, imprecision of preferences, or random errors/noise in decisions. The Luce choice model (also known as strict utility or multinomial logit) is derived from the choice axiom (also known as the independence from irrelevant alternatives). This axiom postulates that the relative likelihood of choosing one choice alternative A over another choice alternative B is not affected by the presence or absence of other choice alternatives in the choice set. This paper presents a dual choice axiom: the relative probability of NOT choosing A over the probability of NOT choosing B is independent from irrelevant alternatives. A new model of probabilistic choice is derived from this dual axiom. This model coincides with Luce’s choice model only in the case of a binary choice. The new model has similar properties as the Luce choice model: the higher is the utility of a choice alternative, the higher is the probability that a decision maker chooses this alternative and the lower is the probability that he or she chooses any other alternative. The new model differs from the Luce choice model in two aspects: utility of choice alternatives is bounded (from above and below) and choice probabilities are more sensitive to differences in utility of choice alternatives.
      PubDate: 2020-09-26
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09332-7
       
  • The uncertainty triangle – Uncovering heterogeneity in attitudes
           towards uncertainty
    • Abstract: This paper develops a graphical tool – the uncertainty triangle – that allows for testing whether choices under uncertainty obey the generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP). We find that more than 95% of subjects made choices that can be rationalized by the maximization of a well-behaved utility function. The uncertainty triangle also makes it straightforward to characterize heterogeneity in attitudes towards uncertainty. To accomplish this we propose a one-parameter extension of Expected Utility in which uncertainty attitude is everywhere constant in the triangle. Experimental data indicate that about 60% of participants made choices consistent with the model and, within this group, 48% were uncertainty averse, 22% uncertainty seeking, and 30% uncertainty neutral. The remaining 40% of participants appear to hold variable uncertainty attitudes. A model that can accommodate this variability is proposed and calibrated.
      PubDate: 2020-08-13
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09331-8
       
  • The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult
           tobacco product use
    • Abstract: We study the effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette taxes on use of these products among adults in the United States. Data are drawn from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey over the period 2011 to 2018. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find evidence that higher traditional cigarette tax rates reduce adult traditional cigarette use and increase adult e-cigarette use. Similarly, we find that higher e-cigarette tax rates increase traditional cigarette use and reduce e-cigarette use. Cross-tax effects imply that the products are economic substitutes. Our results suggest that a proposed national e-cigarette tax of $1.65 per milliliter of vaping liquid would raise the proportion of adults who smoke cigarettes daily by approximately 1 percentage point, translating to 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers compared to the counterfactual of not having the tax.
      PubDate: 2020-07-24
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09330-9
       
  • News that takes your breath away: risk perceptions during an outbreak of
           vaping-related lung injuries
    • Abstract: We study the impact of new information on people’s perceptions of the risks of e-cigarettes. In September 2019 the U.S. experienced an outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, associated lung injuries (EVALI). The EVALI outbreak created an information shock, which was followed by additional new information in a later CDC recommendation. We use data on consumer risk perceptions from two sets of surveys conducted before (HINTS survey data) and during the EVALI outbreak (Google Survey data). The empirical model examines changes in risk perceptions during the early crisis period when the CDC was warning consumers that they should avoid all vaping products and during a later period when the message was refined and focused on a narrower set of illegal vaping products that contain THC (the main psychoactive compound in marijuana). Econometric results suggest that the immediate impact of the first information shock was to significantly increase the fraction of respondents who perceived e-cigarettes as more harmful than smoking. As the outbreak subsided and the CDC recommendation changed to emphasize the role of THC e-cigarette products, e-cigarette risk perceptions were only partially revised downwards. Individuals who had higher risk perceptions showed a weaker response to the first information shock but were more likely to later revise their risk perceptions downwards. We conclude the paper by discussing the public policy issues that stem from having risk perceptions of e-cigarettes relative to combustible cigarettes remain at these elevated levels where a substantial portion of consumers believe that e-cigarettes are more harmful than cigarettes.
      PubDate: 2020-07-22
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09329-2
       
  • Electronic cigarette risk beliefs and usage after the vaping illness
           outbreak
    • Abstract: New national survey evidence on electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) risk beliefs indicates that people substantially overestimate the health risks posed by e-cigarettes, both in absolute terms and relative to conventional cigarette risk beliefs. Perceptions of the lung cancer risks and total mortality risks of conventional cigarettes function as prior risk beliefs for e-cigarettes. People believe e-cigarettes are at least 60% as risky as conventional cigarettes. Whether respondents have seen reports of vaping-related illnesses has no significant effect on risk beliefs, but there has been a modest increase in the percentage who believe that e-cigarettes are riskier than cigarettes. Accurate e-cigarette beliefs would significantly increase whether people try, currently use, or exclusively use e-cigarettes. Whereas price and taste are the principal drivers of brand choice for conventional cigarettes, use of e-cigarettes is more closely linked to smoking cessation and concern with environmental tobacco smoke.
      PubDate: 2020-07-22
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09328-3
       
  • E-cigarettes and adult smoking: Evidence from Minnesota
    • Abstract: E-cigarettes provide nicotine in a vapor form, which is considered less harmful than the smoke from combustible cigarettes because it does not contain the toxins that are found in tobacco smoke. E-cigarettes may be effective in helping smokers to quit or they might simply provide smokers a method of bypassing smoking restrictions. There is very little causal evidence to date on how e-cigarette use impacts smoking cessation among adults. Minnesota was the first to impose a tax on e-cigarettes. This tax provides a plausibly exogenous deterrent to e-cigarette use. We utilize data from the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements from 1992 to 2015 to assess how the Minnesota tax increase impacted smoking cessation among adult smokers. Estimates suggest that the e-cigarette tax increased adult smoking and reduced smoking cessation in Minnesota, relative to the control group, and imply a cross elasticity of current smoking participation with respect to e-cigarette prices of 0.13. Our results suggest that in the sample period about 32,400 additional adult smokers would have quit smoking in Minnesota in the absence of the tax. If this tax were imposed on a national level about 1.8 million smokers would be deterred from quitting in a ten year period. The taxation of e-cigarettes at the same rate as cigarettes could deter more than 2.75 million smokers nationally from quitting in the same period. The public health benefits of not taxing e-cigarettes, however, must be weighed against effects of this decision on efforts to reduce vaping by youth.
      PubDate: 2020-07-16
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09326-5
       
  • The representative heuristic and catastrophe-related risk behaviors
    • Abstract: Building on the work by Volkman-Wise Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 51, 267–290 (2015) and Dumm et al. (The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 42, 117–139 (2017), we examine behavioral aspects of risk through the representative heuristic’s impact on catastrophe-related probability assessment and insurance demand of Florida homeowners. The representative heuristic models individuals as underweighting prior probabilities and overweighting posterior probabilities, thereby overweighting the probability of a loss from a disaster after a disaster occurs. Using data for homeowners’ insurance purchases through Florida’s residual market over a time period (2003-2008) that includes a sub-period of many losses (2004-2005) and sub-period of few catastrophic losses (2003, 2006-2008), we find increases in demand at the individual policyholder level for coverage following losses. Also consistent with the representative heuristic, we find that the effect attenuates as the losses fade from memory. That is, the effect of losses on demand is much higher for more recent losses. We also are able to parameterize the representative heuristic model showing that individual policy holders overweight the probability of another catastrophic event occurring by nearly 50%, after one has occurred.
      PubDate: 2020-06-07
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09324-7
       
 
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