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  Subjects -> STATISTICS (Total: 130 journals)
Showing 1 - 151 of 151 Journals sorted alphabetically
Advances in Complex Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Advances in Data Analysis and Classification     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 52)
Applied Categorical Structures     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Argumentation et analyse du discours     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Asian Journal of Mathematics & Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Biometrical Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Biometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 51)
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 17)
Building Simulation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
CHANCE     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Computational Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35)
Current Research in Biostatistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Decisions in Economics and Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Demographic Research     Open Access   (Followers: 14)
Engineering With Computers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Environmental and Ecological Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
ESAIM: Probability and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Extremes     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Handbook of Numerical Analysis     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Handbook of Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances -     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
International Journal of Quality, Statistics, and Reliability     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
International Journal of Stochastic Analysis     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
International Statistical Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Journal of Algebraic Combinatorics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Applied Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 38, SJR: 3.664, CiteScore: 2)
Journal of Combinatorial Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Computational & Graphical Statistics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 21)
Journal of Econometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 82)
Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Journal of Global Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Mathematics and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Nonparametric Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Probability and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Statistical Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Statistical Software     Open Access   (Followers: 16, SJR: 13.802, CiteScore: 16)
Journal of the American Statistical Association     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 72, SJR: 3.746, CiteScore: 2)
Journal of the Korean Statistical Society     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 36)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Statistical Methodology)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 41)
Journal of Theoretical Probability     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Time Series Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Journal of Urbanism: International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Law, Probability and Risk     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Lifetime Data Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Mathematical Methods of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Measurement Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Metrika     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Monthly Statistics of International Trade - Statistiques mensuelles du commerce international     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Multivariate Behavioral Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Optimization Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Optimization Methods and Software     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Pharmaceutical Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Queueing Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Research Synthesis Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Review of Economics and Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 138)
Review of Socionetwork Strategies     Hybrid Journal  
Risk Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Sankhya A     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Scandinavian Journal of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Sequential Analysis: Design Methods and Applications     Hybrid Journal  
Significance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Sociological Methods & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 40)
SourceOECD Measuring Globalisation Statistics - SourceOCDE Mesurer la mondialisation - Base de donnees statistiques     Full-text available via subscription  
Stata Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Statistica Neerlandica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Statistical Methods and Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Statistical Methods in Medical Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Statistical Modelling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Statistical Papers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Statistics & Probability Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Statistics and Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Statistics and Economics     Open Access  
Statistics in Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 122)
Statistics: A Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Stochastic Models     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Stochastics An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes: formerly Stochastics and Stochastics Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Teaching Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Technology Innovations in Statistics Education (TISE)     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
TEST     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
The American Statistician     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
The Canadian Journal of Statistics / La Revue Canadienne de Statistique     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews - Computational Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)

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Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Journal Prestige (SJR): 1.471
Citation Impact (citeScore): 2
Number of Followers: 34  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1573-0476 - ISSN (Online) 0895-5646
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2469 journals]
  • Smoking, selection, and medical care expenditures

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      Abstract: Abstract The contribution of cigarette smoking to national health expenditures is thought to be large, but our current understanding of the effect of smoking on annual medical expenditures is limited to studies that use cross-sectional data to make comparisons of medical care expenditures between smokers and never smokers at a particular age. We develop a dynamic economic model of smoking and medical care use that highlights two forms of selection: selective mortality and non-random cessation. To test predictions from our model, we construct novel longitudinal profiles of medical expenditures of smokers and never smokers from merged National Health Interview Survey and Medicare claims information. Consistent with our theory, we find that, from a given age, smokers generate higher expenditures prospectively, because of a higher incidence in inpatient usage, and lower expenditures retrospectively, because of lower outpatient usage. Between ages 65 and 84, we find that the expected value of the discounted sum of total expenditures is lower for smokers, mainly because of excess mortality. We find no evidence that cigarette smoking is a burden on Medicare.
      PubDate: 2022-04-30
       
  • Risk-taking and others 

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      Abstract: Abstract Real-life risk decisions are taken in a social context. However, we still know little about how that affects risk decisions. We have experimentally investigated the effect of social comparison on risk taking. We designed an experiment that allows us to isolate social comparison from other channels whereby the social context can affect risk decisions. The design also allows us to find impacts of the social reference point both if the individual cares about the distance to the social reference point and if she cares about her rank. Thus, we compare risk-taking in isolation to risk-taking with various exogenously imposed social reference points. We find that risk-taking is affected by the desire to get ahead of others, both when the social reference point is within reach (rank can be affected) and when it is out of reach (rank cannot be affected). Our results suggest that people do not only care about rank but also care about the distance to the social reference point.
      PubDate: 2022-04-20
       
  • On the role of monetary incentives in risk preference elicitation
           experiments

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      Abstract: Abstract Incentivized experiments in which individuals receive monetary rewards according to the outcomes of their decisions are regarded as the gold standard for preference elicitation in experimental economics. These task-related real payments are considered necessary to reveal subjects’ “true preferences.” Using a systematic, large-sample approach with three subject pools of private investors, professional investors, and students, we test the effect of task-related monetary incentives on risk preferences in four standard experimental tasks. We find no significant differences in behavior between and within subjects in the incentivized and non-incentivized regimes. We discuss implications for academic research and forions in the field.
      PubDate: 2022-04-20
       
  • Perceptions of personal and public risk: Dissociable effects on behavior
           and well-being

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      Abstract: Abstract When faced with a global threat peoples’ perception of risk guides their response. When danger is to the self as well as to others two risk estimates are generated—to the self and to others. Here, we set out to examine how people’s perceptions of health risk to the self and others are related to their psychological well-being and behavioral response. To that end, we surveyed a large representative sample of Americans facing the COVID-19 pandemic at two times (N1 = 1145, N2 = 683). We found that people perceived their own risk to be relatively low, while estimating the risk to others as relatively high. These risk estimates were differentially associated with psychological well-being and behavior. In particular, perceived personal but not public risk was associated with people’s happiness, while both were predictive of anxiety. In contrast, the tendency to engage in protective behaviors were predicted by peoples’ estimated risk to the population, but not to themselves. This raises the possibility that people were predominantly engaging in protective behaviors for the benefit of others. The findings can inform public policy aimed at protecting people’s psychological well-being and physical health during global threats.
      PubDate: 2022-04-02
       
  • A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance

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      Abstract: Abstract Despite widespread exposure to substantial medical expenditure risk in low-income populations, health insurance enrollment is typically low. This is puzzling from the perspective of expected utility theory. To help explain it, this paper introduces a decomposition of the stated willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance into its fair price and three behavioral deviations from that price due to risk perception and risk attitude consistent with prospect theory, plus a residual. To apply this approach, we elicit WTP, subjective distributions of medical expenditures and risk attitude (utility curvature and probability weighting) from Filipino households in a nationwide survey. We find that the mean stated WTP of the uninsured is less than both the actuarially fair price and the subsidized price at which public insurance is offered. This is not explained by downwardly biased beliefs: both the mean and the median subjective expectation are greater than the subsidized price. Convex utility in the domain of losses pushes mean WTP below the fair price and the subsidized price, and the transformation of probabilities into decision weights depresses the mean further, at least using one of two specific decompositions. WTP is reduced further by factors other than risk perception and attitude.
      PubDate: 2022-03-22
       
  • How does risk preference change under the stress of COVID-19' Evidence
           from Japan

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      Abstract: Abstract In this study, we investigated whether the risk preference systematically changed during the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. Traditionally, risk preference is assumed to be stable over one’s life, though it differs among individuals. While recent studies have reported that it changes with a large event like natural disasters and financial crisis, they have not reached a consensus on its direction, risk aversion, or tolerance. We collected panel data of Japanese individuals in five waves from March to June 2020, which covered the period of the first cycle when COVID-19 spread rapidly and then dwindled. We measured risk preference through questions on the willingness to pay for insurance. The main results are as follows: First, people became more risk tolerant throughout the period; and second, people were more averse to mega risk than moderate risk, with the former correlating more strongly with the individual’s perception of COVID-19. The first result may be interpreted as “habituation” to repeated stress, as is understood in neuroscience.
      PubDate: 2022-03-22
       
  • Revisiting the diagnosis of intertemporal preference reversals

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      Abstract: Abstract Intertemporal preference reversals occur when individuals choose future option A over future option B in a direct choice between the two but place a higher ‘immediate cash’ value on B than on A. Tversky et al. (1990) reported strong evidence of such reversals, which they attributed mainly to valuation biases rather than intransitivity. We find similar levels of reversals, even after adjusting for considerable degrees of variability and imprecision in people’s responses. However, we disagree with Tversky et al.’s conclusions about the causes of the majority of these reversals. We find substantial levels of intransitivity in respondents’ binary choices as well as differential overvaluation of both options relative to the values inferred from their choices.
      PubDate: 2022-03-10
       
  • Do people have a bias for low deductible insurance'

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      Abstract: Abstract This paper reports on a controlled web-based experiment designed to determine whether subjects have a predisposition toward low deductible (LD) rather than high deductible (HD) insurance plans when the LD plan is the default. We also are interested in whether individuals’ choice between LD and HD plans remains consistent if the default and premiums are changed. We find that only slightly more than half of the respondents choose a low deductible when the default option is the LD plan, and that many subjects consistently preferred the HD plan. In other words, we found no general preference for low deductible insurance. The research presented here should be viewed as another step in highlighting the importance of understanding individuals’ decision processes associated with the purchase of insurance.
      PubDate: 2022-02-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09368-x
       
  • Correction to: Insurance decisions under nonperformance risk and ambiguity

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      PubDate: 2022-02-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09372-1
       
  • Intransitivity in the small and in the large

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      Abstract: Abstract We propose a regret-based model that allows the separation of attitudes towards transitivity on triples of random variables that are close to each other and attitudes towards transitivity on triples that are far apart. This enables a theoretical reinterpretation of evidence related to intransitive behavior in the laboratory. When viewed through this paper’s analysis, the experimental evidence need not imply intransitive behavior for large risky decisions such as investment choices and insurance.
      PubDate: 2022-01-26
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09367-4
       
  • Intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between cumulative payoff and average
           delay

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      Abstract: Abstract Intertemporal choice involves outcomes that are received in different moments of time. This paper presents a new framework for analyzing intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between the cumulative payoff of a stream of intertemporal outcomes and its average delay (similar to the mean–variance approach in modelling risk preferences). Ceteris paribus, a decision maker prefers a stream of intertemporal payoffs with a higher cumulative payoff and a lower average delay. A decision maker with such time preferences always dislikes a partial delay in consumption (splitting one payoff into two, one of which is slightly delayed in time). In contrast, many existing models (e.g. discounted utility, quasi-hyperbolic discounting, generalized hyperbolic discounting or liminal discounting) imply a preference for partial delay. Our proposed model is compatible with the common difference effect (corresponding to a horizontal fanning-out of indifference curves) and the absolute magnitude effect (corresponding to a vertical fanning-in of indifference curves). The proposed model is applied to the standard consumption-savings problem with a constant interest rate. A simple experimental test of the proposed model vs. discounted utility and quasi-hyperbolic discounting is presented.
      PubDate: 2022-01-25
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09370-3
       
  • How serious is the measurement-error problem in risk-aversion tasks'

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      Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes within-session test/retest data from four different tasks used to elicit risk attitudes. Maximum-likelihood and non-parametric estimations on 16 datasets reveal that, irrespective of the task, measurement error accounts for approximately 50% of the variance of the observed variable capturing risk attitudes. The consequences of this large noise element are evaluated by means of simulations. First, as predicted by theory, the coefficient on the risk measure in univariate OLS regressions is attenuated to approximately half of its true value, irrespective of the sample size. Second, the risk-attitude measure may spuriously appear to be insignificant, especially in small samples. Unlike the measurement error arising from within-individual variability, rounding has little influence on significance and biases. In the last part, we show that instrumental-variable estimation and the ORIV method, developed by Gillen et al. (2019), both of which require test/retest data, can eliminate the attenuation bias, but do not fully solve the insignificance problem in small samples. Increasing the number of observations to N=500 removes most of the insignificance issues.
      PubDate: 2022-01-24
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09366-5
       
  • An experimental study of charity hazard: The effect of risky and ambiguous
           government compensation on flood insurance demand

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      Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the problem of “charity hazard,” which is the crowding out of private insurance demand by government compensation. In the context of flood insurance and disaster financing, charity hazard is particularly worrisome given current trends of increasing flood risks as a result of climate change and more people choosing to locate in high-risk areas. We conduct an experimental analysis of the influence on flood insurance demand of risk and ambiguity preferences and the availability of different forms of government compensation for disaster damage. Certain and risky government compensation crowd out demand, confirming charity hazard, but this is not observed for ambiguous compensation. Ambiguity averse subjects have higher insurance demand when government compensation is ambiguous relative to risky. Policy recommendations are discussed to overcome charity hazard.
      PubDate: 2021-12-04
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09365-6
       
  • Insurance decisions under nonperformance risk and ambiguity

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      Abstract: Abstract An important societal problem is that people underinsure against risks that are unlikely or occur in the far future, such as natural disasters and long-term care needs. One explanation is that uncertainty about the risk of non-reimbursement induces ambiguity averse and risk prudent decision makers to take out less insurance. We set up an insurance experiment to test this explanation. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, we find that the demand for insurance is lower when the nonperformance risk is ambiguous than when it is known and when decision makers are risk prudent. We cannot attribute the lower take-up of insurance to our measure of ambiguity aversion, probably because ambiguity attitudes are richer than aversion alone.
      PubDate: 2021-11-26
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09364-7
       
  • The value of statistical life in the context of road safety: new evidence
           on the contingent valuation/standard gamble chained approach

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      Abstract: Abstract This study estimates the value of statistical life (VSL) on a road traffic accident using the Contingent Valuation/Standard Gamble chained approach. A large representative sample (n = 2020) is used to calculate a VSL for use in the evaluation of road safety programmes in Spain. The paper also makes some methodological contributions, by providing new evidence about the consistency of the chained method. Our main results are: (1) A range from 1.3 million euro to 1.7 million euro is obtained for the VSL in Spain in the context of road accidents. This range is in line with the values used in the same context in other European countries, although it is lower than those obtained in different contexts and with other methods. (2) The method performs much better in terms of scope sensitivity than the traditional contingent valuation method, which asks subjects about their willingness to pay for very small reductions in the risk of death. (3) We introduce a new ‘indirect’ chaining approach which reduces (but does not remove) the disparity between direct and indirect chaining approaches. More extreme VSL estimates are still obtained with this indirect method than with the direct one. (4) VSL estimates depend on the injury used. More specifically, we obtained a lower VSL when a more severe injury is used. (5) Framing the risk of death in the modified standard gamble question as “10n in 10,000” instead of “n in 1000” influences the value of VSL. We attribute this effect to the Ratio Bias.
      PubDate: 2021-10-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09360-x
       
  • Crowded out: Heterogeneity in risk attitudes among poor households in the
           US

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      Abstract: Abstract Not much is known about the heterogeneity of risk attitudes among poor households in rich countries. This paper provides estimates from a unique data set collected among the urban poor in Atlanta, Georgia. The data set includes lab-in-the-field experiments on the relationship between risk attitudes and several household characteristics. Apart from looking at income, wealth, and education, we are particularly interested in household composition as it captures the number and kind of people who are dependant on the income of the household head. Heads of households who are less risk averse may be willing to take on the extra risk from smaller resource margins resulting from additional dependants, implying a negative relationship between household size and risk aversion. However, if the size of the household is a result of exogenous forces some heads of households may become more risk averse with more dependants. Household size can also reflect a risk management choice that involves adding non-dependant members who can provide resources and risk sharing. However, this possibility is limited to homes that are not already too crowded. We find that household size correlates positively with the risk aversion of the head, but with a large proportion of children the correlation is strongly dampened. However, this negative effect of children is conditional on the home not already being crowded. These heterogeneous findings have implications for the design of new insurance, savings, and credit programs where risk attitudes are important to the decisions to adopt.
      PubDate: 2021-10-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09363-8
       
  • Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from
           an indoor political rally

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      Abstract: Abstract The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deem large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “highest risk” activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma arena. In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was “more than likely” the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa County based on time series data. This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread. First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa County, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on COVID-19 cases from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe. Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally—including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance—may be important mechanisms.
      PubDate: 2021-10-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4
       
  • Gender differences in the stability of risk attitudes

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      Abstract: Abstract We investigate gender differences in the stability of risk preferences over time and across stake sizes of lottery choices. Subjects participate in a 12-week, online experiment with high- and low-stakes lottery choices. Our study incorporates self-reported measures of the states of mind of the participants – specifically sources and levels of stress and happiness, as well as financial well-being – to explain the weekly lottery choices of males and females. At the aggregate level, we do not observe a significant gender difference in average risk attitudes either within or across stakes. For both genders, risk tolerance for low-stakes lotteries increases over time; for high-stakes lotteries, only females become more risk tolerant. At the individual level, both genders exhibit a relatively high level of choice stability. For both males and females there is some evidence that risk tolerance increases across time for low-stake lotteries. We observe a gender difference in the response to stress and happiness. Males become more risk tolerant at both stake sizes when experiencing family-sourced stress. For females, we find greater risk aversion for high-stakes lotteries when experiencing university-sourced stress and relationship-sourced happiness and greater risk tolerance when feeling more financially stable. Males exhibit a decrease in the instability (variability) of lottery choices as time passes, suggesting learning or increasing comfort with riskier choices with experience. Finally, regardless of gender, roughly equal numbers of subjects exhibit risk tolerance that is decreasing, constant, or increasing with stakes, and the risk tolerance of our subjects across stakes are relatively stable.
      PubDate: 2021-10-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09361-w
       
  • Optimality of winner-take-all contests: the role of attitudes toward risk

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      Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the role of risk attitudes in determining the optimality of winner-take-all contests. We compare the typical single-winner lottery contest with two alternatives, both spreading the rewards to more players: through holding multiple prize-giving lottery competitions or through guaranteeing a bottom prize for the losers. In the first comparison, we find that the multiple-competition contest is as effective as the winner-take-all contest when the contestants are risk neutral, but the former induces more effort than the latter when the contestants are both risk averse and prudent. In the second comparison, we find that the contest with a bottom prize is always dominated by the winner-take-all contest when the contestants are risk neutral, but the former could have an advantage over the latter when the contestants are both risk averse and prudent, and it is more likely so as the contestants become more prudent.
      PubDate: 2021-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09355-8
       
  • Effortful Bayesian updating: A pupil-dilation study

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      Abstract: Abstract When confronted with new information, rational decision makers should update their beliefs through Bayes’ rule. In economics, however, new information often includes win-loss feedback (profits vs. losses, success vs. failure, upticks vs. downticks). Previous research using a well-established belief-updating paradigm shows that, in this case, reinforcement learning (focusing on past performance) creates high error rates, and increasing monetary incentives fails to elicit higher performance. But do incentives fail to increase effort, or rather does effort fail to increase performance' We use pupil dilation to show that higher incentives do result in increased cognitive effort, but the latter fails to translate into increased performance in this paradigm. The failure amounts to a “reinforcement paradox:” increasing incentives makes win-loss cues more salient, and hence effort is often misallocated in the form of an increased reliance on reinforcement processes. Our study also serves as an example of how pupil-dilation measurements can inform economics.
      PubDate: 2021-08-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09358-5
       
 
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