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Demographic Research
Journal Prestige (SJR): 1.235
Citation Impact (citeScore): 2
Number of Followers: 14  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 1435-9871
Published by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Homepage  [1 journal]
  • Do the consequences of parental separation for children’s educational
           success vary by parental education' The role of educational thresholds
           (by Wiebke Schulz)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Research shows that children’s social background influences the extent to which they experience educational disadvantages when their parents separate. However, while some studies find larger separation penalties for children from lower social backgrounds than for children from higher backgrounds, other studies find the opposite. The present study builds on this research by examining heterogeneous parental separation effects by parental education for lower (mid-secondary) and higher (higher-secondary) educational thresholds.
      Analyses are based on a sample of children (and their siblings) born in the 1970s and 1960s (N = 6,855 children), drawn from the German Life History Study. A series of linear probability models are estimated; additional analyses include sibling-fixed-effects models.
      No separation disadvantages for children from higher status backgrounds were found, for either outcome. Children from lower educational backgrounds had fewer chances of completing mid-secondary education; this was true to a lesser extent for higher-secondary education. Sibling fixed effects show the same pattern but also indicate that results may be partly due to unobserved family characteristics.

      PubDate: Wed, 07 Dec 2022 00:00:00
  • Small-area estimates from consumer trace data (by Arthur Acolin, Ari
           Decter-Frain, Matt Hall)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Timely, accurate, and precise demographic estimates at various levels of geography are crucial for planning, policymaking, and analysis. In the United States, data from the decennial census and annual American Community Survey (ACS) serve as the main sources for subnational demographic estimates. While estimates derived from these sources are widely regarded as accurate, their timeliness is limited and variability sizable for small geographic units like towns and neighborhoods.
      This paper investigates the potential for using nonrepresentative consumer trace data assembled by commercial vendors to produce valid and timely estimates. We focus on data purchased from Data Axle, which contains the names and addresses of over 150 million Americans annually.
      We identify the predictors of over- and undercounts of households as measured with consumer trace data and compare a range of calibration approaches to assess the extent to which systematic errors in the data can be adjusted for over time. We also demonstrate the utility of the data for predicting contemporaneous (nowcasting) tract-level household counts in the 2020 Decennial Census.
      We find that adjusted counts at the county, ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA), and tract levels deviate from ACS survey-based estimates by an amount roughly equivalent to the ACS margins of error. Machine-learning methods perform best for calibration of county- and tract-level data. The estimates are stable over time and across regions of the country. We also find that when doing nowcasts, incorporating Data Axle estimates improved prediction bias relative to using the most recent ACS five-year estimates alone.

      PubDate: Tue, 06 Dec 2022 00:00:00
  • Spatial heterogeneity in son preference across India’s 640 districts: An
           application of small-area estimation (by Abhishek Singh, Ashish Kumar
           Upadhyay, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ashish Singh, Fiifi Amoako Johnson, Sabu S.

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Son preference is culturally rooted across generations in India. While the social and economic implications of son preference are widely acknowledged, there is little evidence on spatial heterogeneity, especially at the district level.
      To derive estimates of son preference for the 640 districts of India and examine spatial heterogeneity in son preference across the districts of India.
      We apply model-based Small-Area Estimation (SAE) techniques, linking data from the 2015–2016 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2011 Indian Population and Housing Census to generate district-level estimates of son preference.
      The diagnostic measures confirm that the model-based estimates are robust enough to provide reliable estimates of son preference at the district level. Son preference is highest in the districts across northern and central Indian states, followed by districts in Gujarat and Maharashtra, and lowest in the southern districts in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.
      There is considerable heterogeneity in son preference across Indian districts, often masked by state-level average estimates. Our findings warrant urgent policy interventions targeting specific districts in India to tackle the ongoing son-preference attitudes and practices.

      PubDate: Thu, 01 Dec 2022 00:00:00
  • Changing mind, changing plans' Instability of individual gender
           attitudes and postponement of marriage in Germany (by Daniele Florean)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Numerous studies address the relationship between gender attitudes and family formation, especially the attitudes–fertility connection. To date, little attention has been paid to the longitudinal dynamics of these attitudes, in particular the stability of attitudes over time, and the impact of their stability on marriage.
      To investigate how stable or unstable gender attitudes are related to the timing of first transitions to marriage in Germany.
      Using event history analysis and data from the PAIRFAM survey, I compare the first transition to marriage in a sample of men and women born between 1981 and 1983 and living in Germany. I generate an index to estimate the stability of gender attitudes over time across a set of four indicators, and use it as the main independent variable to estimate how attitude stability is related to the timing of marriage.
      Respondents who report frequent changes in gender attitudes enter marriage systematically later than respondents whose attitudes are stable. However, this relationship is weaker for respondents who express more liberal attitudes.

      PubDate: Wed, 30 Nov 2022 00:00:00
  • Heterogeneity among the never married in a low-fertility context (by
           Jolene Tan)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      While there has been extensive research on trends in marriage and singlehood, few studies have examined heterogeneity among never-married individuals in a low-fertility context. As a country that has experienced a steady decline in marriage and an accompanying rise in singlehood, Singapore presents a compelling context in which to study the singlehood phenomenon.
      This study aims to understand variations in the never-married population based on their family-related attitudes. It seeks to classify the never married into subgroups and examine how these groups relate in terms of their sociodemographic traits and marriage desires.
      Using data from the Perceptions of Singles on Marriage and Having Children study (N = 1,980), latent class analysis was performed to develop a typology of the never married. Latent class analysis applies a person-centered approach to identify heterogeneity between and homogeneity within subgroups based on associations among a set of observed indicators.
      Four never-married subgroups were identified: family conservatives (37%), conflicted conservatives (24%), family progressives (22%), and family skeptics (17%). There were distinct characteristics among subgroups in terms of age, sex, and relationship status. A strong gradient in marriage desires was found across the never-married subgroups, implying that variations between subgroups are an important determinant of the desire to marry.
      The paper highlights the importance of recognizing diversity among the never-married population as a first step to understanding the flight from marriage.

      PubDate: Fri, 18 Nov 2022 00:00:00
  • The bootstrap approach to the multistate life table method using Stata:
           Does accounting for complex survey designs matter' (by Nader Mehri)

    • Abstract: OBJECTIVE
      I aim to develop a Stata program that estimates multistate life table quantities and their confidence intervals while controlling for covariates of interest, as well as adjusting for complex survey designs. Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) (2000–2016), I use the new program to estimate US females’ total, healthy, and unhealthy life expectancies and their intervals by race/ethnicity at age 52 (the youngest age in the sample), while adjusting for education.
      Using the nonparametric bootstrap technique (with replacement), the present study offers and validates an age-inhomogeneous first-order Markov chain multistate life table program. The current proposed Stata program is the maximum likelihood version of Lynch and Brown’s Bayesian approach to the multistate life table method, which has been developed in R. I use the estimates from the Bayesian approach to validate the estimates from the unweighted bootstrap approach. I also account for the HRS complex survey design using the HRS baseline survey design indicators (clustering, strata, and sample weights). I utilize the estimates from the unweighted and weighted bootstrap models to evaluate the extent to which ignoring the HRS complex survey design alters the estimates.
      The health expectancy estimates obtained from the unweighted bootstrap approach are consistent with estimates from the Bayesian approach, which ignores complex survey designs. This indicates that the bootstrap approach developed in the current paper is valid. Also, the results show that ignoring the HRS complex survey design does not meaningfully alter the estimates.

      PubDate: Wed, 09 Nov 2022 00:00:00
  • Investigating the application of generalized additive models to
           discrete-time event history analysis for birth events (by Joanne Ellison,
           Ann Berrington, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J. Forster)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the factors associated with the time to a first or subsequent conception or birth. Although there is an emerging trend towards the smooth incorporation of continuous covariates in the broader literature, this is yet to be formally embraced in the context of birth events.
      We investigate the formal application of smooth methods implemented via generalized additive models (GAMs) to the analysis of fertility histories. We also determine whether and where GAMs offer a practical improvement over existing approaches.
      We fit parity-specific logistic GAMs to data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, learning about the effects of age, period, time since last birth, educational qualification, and country of birth. First, we select the most parsimonious GAMs that fit the data sufficiently well. Then we compare them with corresponding models that use the existing methods of categorical, polynomial, and piecewise linear spline representations in terms of fit, complexity, and substantive insights gained.
      We find that smooth terms can offer considerable improvements in precision and efficiency, particularly for highly non-linear effects and interactions between continuous variables. Their flexibility enables the detection of important features that are missed or estimated imprecisely by comparator methods.

      PubDate: Fri, 28 Oct 2022 00:00:00
  • When investment backfires: Unbalanced sex ratios and mental health among
           boys in rural areas (by Hantao Wu, Ting Li)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      In China, a key feature of demographic transition is the abnormally high sex ratio, resulting in a shortage of brides. In addition, depressive symptoms among Chinese adolescents have risen sharply in the last decade, and among these adolescents, boys in rural areas are most likely to be depressed.
      In this study, we investigate the phenomenon of depression in a large number of rural boys. We hypothesize that upon perceiving the strong competition in the local marriage market, rural parents tend to increase educational investment to improve their sons’ relative standing in the market, thereby leading to high pressure and depression among rural boys.
      By leveraging variations across counties and cohorts, we constructed a difference-in-differences model featuring rich fixed effects to absorb invariant confounding factors and cohort trends across provinces. To ensure the exogeneity of sex ratios, we studied the first children in families, in cognition of the randomness of the first child’s gender.
      Empirical evidence suggests that high sex ratios motivate rural parents to elevate their educational expectations of and tangible and intangible investments in their sons, invariably increasing performance pressure and lowering academic performance, thereby deepening mental depression.

      PubDate: Wed, 26 Oct 2022 00:00:00
  • Culture portability from origin to destination country: The gender
           division of domestic work among migrants in Italy (by Elisa Brini, Anna
           Zamberlan, Paolo Barbieri)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      The relative importance of a cultural component in the gender division of unpaid labour is still debated.
      Drawing on the epidemiological approach to the study of culture, we investigate the cultural component of gender inequality by examining whether gender asymmetries in housework and childcare in families with a migrant background relate to gender equity in the country of origin.
      Through multilevel models based on microlevel data (Istat SCIF survey), we examine the extent to which the division of household labour between immigrant partners living in Italy relates to gender equity in their origin country, proxied by the Global Gender Gap Index. We further analyse the changing importance of gender equity in the country of origin at different lengths of stay in the destination country.
      Immigrants from more (less) gender-equal countries display greater (lower) equality in the division of routine housework and childcare activities. However, gender equity in the origin country loses its importance for couples living in the destination country for a longer time. These findings point to a significant contribution of culture of origin to gender inequality in the intra-couple division of unpaid labour. Yet nonnegligible differences exist between specific housework and childcare tasks and depending on the time spent in the hosting country.

      PubDate: Tue, 25 Oct 2022 00:00:00
  • Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic (by
           Florian Bonnet, Josselin Thuilliez, Hippolyte d'Albis)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956–1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969–1970).
      This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France.
      We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find out whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969 and decreased from 1970 onward.
      The Hong Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density, or aging ratio. The Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemic. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.

      PubDate: Wed, 12 Oct 2022 00:00:00
  • Female sterilization in the life course: Understanding trends and
           differentials in early sterilization (by Sara Johnsen, Megan Sweeney)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Socioeconomically disadvantaged women and women of color are more likely than other women both to undergo contraceptive sterilization and to desire sterilization reversal. Although younger age at sterilization is associated with greater likelihood of regret, we know little about socioeconomic and racial/ethnic differences in sterilization timing within the life course.
      We examine racial, ethnic, and educational differences in the prevalence of sterilization and its timing in the life course.
      Using data from the 1995, 2002, 2006–2010, 2011–2013, 2013–2015, 2015–2017, and 2017–2019 National Survey of Family Growth, we estimate the prevalence and life timing of sterilization by subgroup and investigate associations with women’s demographic and reproductive characteristics.
      We find differing patterns of sterilization timing across racial, ethnic, and educational groups. Among sterilized women, Black women are more likely than White women to have undergone their procedures by age 30, but these differences in sterilization timing are attributable to reproductive background characteristics. On the other hand, Hispanic women are more likely than White women to become sterilized, but our findings suggest they are less likely to undergo the procedure by age 30, conditional on becoming sterilized. Women without a college degree are both considerably more likely than college-educated women to become sterilized and, conditional on becoming sterilized, to do so by age 30.

      PubDate: Fri, 07 Oct 2022 00:00:00
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