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Demographic Research
Journal Prestige (SJR): 1.235
Citation Impact (citeScore): 2
Number of Followers: 14  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 1435-9871
Published by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Homepage  [1 journal]
  • Endogamy and relationship dissolution: Does unmarried cohabitation
           matter' (by Layla Van den Berg, Dimitri Mortelmans)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Previous studies on the role of partner choice in relationship dissolution have shown that exogamous marriages often have higher divorce risks. Yet, given that these studies focus only on marriages, it remains unclear whether the same dynamics can be seen in unmarried cohabiting couples, or what the exact role of a premarital cohabitation period is.
      OBJECTIVE
      This paper aims to examine whether the link between union dissolution and endogamy differs across relationship types by comparing marriages with and without a period of premarital cohabitation and unmarried cohabiting couples.
      METHODS
      Based on survival analyses and multivariate event history models, this study analyzes union dissolution risks among married and unmarried cohabiting couples with at least one partner of Belgian, Southern European, Turkish, Moroccan, Congolese, Burundian, or Rwandan descent. We use longitudinal data from the Belgian National and Social Security registers for a sample of couples formed between 1999 and 2001.
      RESULTS
      The results indicated that exogamous direct marriages have substantially higher risks of relationship dissolution. Yet, differences in dissolution risks between exogamous and endogamous couples with and without a migrant background become smaller or disappear entirely when unmarried cohabitation is involved.

      PubDate: Tue, 27 Sep 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Legal status and health disparities: An examination of health insurance
           coverage among the foreign-born (by Christal Hamilton, Claire Altman,
           James Bachmeier, Cody Spence)

    • Abstract: OBJECTIVE
      This paper employs a statistical matching procedure to impute the legal status of foreign-born adults in US Census surveys in order to estimate migration status disparities in health insurance coverage.
      METHODS
      Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we impute the legal/citizenship (migration) status of immigrants in the National Health Interview Survey.
      RESULTS
      Results from the pooled data document disparities in health insurance coverage among four citizen/legal status groups: naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, legal nonimmigrants, and unauthorized immigrants. Naturalized citizens had the highest rate of health insurance coverage, followed by legal immigrants, legal nonimmigrants, and unauthorized immigrants.

      PubDate: Tue, 20 Sep 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from
           cross-national population data (by Eunice Williams, Sabu Padmadas, Heini
           Vaisanen)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Women’s economic empowerment (WEE) has attracted high-level policy interest, and is recognized as a central, cross-cutting outcome, and the cornerstone for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. However, it lacks a standardised definition and standard, measurable, and comparable indicators, and is plagued by large data gaps, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
      OBJECTIVE
      We examine the extent of WEE in SSA. Our goal is to identify WEE country typologies explaining the variation in and contributing domains of WEE in each country.
      METHODS
      Using recent DHS data in 33 countries, we apply principal component analysis to generate a WEE score based on 9 indicators in order to better understand the contributors underlying this score and derive country typologies.
      RESULTS
      Overall, WEE is low but it varies markedly by country. It is typically explained by educational attainment, employment, and land ownership among women alone or in combination with men. We identified 5 typologies of WEE: (1) instrumental agency explained by high educational attainment, (2) instrumental agency explained by land ownership, (3) individual economic advancement explained by high employment rates, (4) basic-level economic empowerment, and (5) low-level economic empowerment.
      CONCLUSIONS
      The level of WEE in SSA varies by country. The factors affecting the level also vary and can be divided into 5 typologies characterising the type of WEE.

      PubDate: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 00:00:00
       
  • The association between childlessness and voting turnout in 38 countries
           (by Ryohei Mogi, Bruno Arpino)

    • Abstract: OBJECTIVE
      This descriptive study aims to analyse the association between childlessness and voting turnout.
      METHODS
      We used the first nine rounds of the European Social Survey and logistic regression models to estimate the association between childlessness and having voted in the last national elections using data from 38 countries.
      RESULTS
      Our results show that childlessness is negatively associated with voting turnout in general. The association is stronger among individuals who are in the late reproductive lifespan (ages 35 to 39, 40 to 44, and 45 to 49), males, and those with lower education. The analyses show also considerable heterogeneity across countries but without a clear pattern.

      PubDate: Tue, 13 Sep 2022 00:00:00
       
  • The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their
           approximations (by Hal Caswell)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Previous kinship models analyze female kin through female lines of descent, neglecting male kin and male lines of descent. Because males and females differ in mortality and fertility, including both sexes in kinship models is an important unsolved problem.
      OBJECTIVE
      The objectives are to develop a kinship model including female and male kin through all lines of descent, to explore approximations when full sex-specific rates are unavailable, and to apply the model to several populations as an example.
      METHODS
      The kin of a focal individual form an age×sex-classified population and are projected as Focal ages using matrix methods, providing expected age-sex structures for every type of kin at every age of Focal. Initial conditions are based on the distribution of ages at maternity and paternity.
      RESULTS
      The equations for two-sex kinship dynamics are presented. As an example, the model is applied to populations with large (Senegal), medium (Haiti), and small (France) differences between female and male fertility. Results include numbers and sex ratios of kin as Focal ages. An approximation treating female and male rates as identical provides some insight into kin numbers, even when male and female rates are very different.

      PubDate: Wed, 07 Sep 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s (by Sofi
           Ohlsson-Wijk, Gunnar Andersson)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      The downward fertility trend in Western countries during the 2010s is puzzling, not least in the Nordic region.
      OBJECTIVE
      In order to better understand its driving forces, we examine whether the decline is driven by differential behavior or compositional changes across sociodemographic population subgroups, for the empirical case of Sweden.
      METHODS
      Event-history techniques are applied to register data of the Swedish-born population to provide an in-depth analysis of the sociodemographic profile of the fertility decline.
      RESULTS
      The decline is confined to first births, with no apparent difference between individuals living in different types of municipalities or between those with fully Swedish and non-Swedish backgrounds. The first-birth decline is notable across labor market activity groups, but is somewhat more pronounced among those with weaker labor market positions. However, the shares of men and women who were active in the labor market and who had high earnings increased. The findings are strikingly similar for men and women.
      CONCLUSIONS
      For the most part the factors driving the Swedish fertility decline do not appear to be structural. Other forces, perhaps global, may underlie the general tendency to increasingly forego or postpone having children. The polarization in childbearing across labor market positions is an area for future research.

      PubDate: Wed, 10 Aug 2022 00:00:00
       
  • A probabilistic model for analyzing summary birth history data (by Katie
           Wilson, Jon Wakefield)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      There is an increasing demand for high-quality subnational estimates of under-5 mortality. In low- and middle-income countries, where the burden of under-5 mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking, and household surveys, which provide full birth history data, are often the most reliable source. Unfortunately, these data are spatially sparse so data are pulled from other sources to increase the available information. Summary birth histories represent a large fraction of the available data and provide numbers of births and deaths aggregated over time, along with the mother’s age.
      OBJECTIVE
      Specialized methods are needed to leverage this information, and previously the Brass method and variants have been used. We wish to develop a model-based approach that can propagate errors and make the most efficient use of the data. Further, we strive to provide a method that does not have large computational overhead.

      PubDate: Tue, 09 Aug 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Multiple (il)legal pathways: The diversity of immigrants' legal
           trajectories in Belgium (by Bruno Schoumaker, Mireille Le Guen, Louise
           Caron, Wanli Nie)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      A growing number of primarily qualitative studies have shown that the legal trajectories of immigrants in Western countries are often complex. However, immigrants’ long-term legal trajectories remain a blind spot in quantitative migration research.
      OBJECTIVE
      This paper aims to provide new empirical insights into the variety of legal pathways among non-European immigrants who arrived in Belgium between 1999 and 2008. We build a typology of legal trajectories, and we investigate how these trajectories are related to immigrants’ country of origin, asylum status, and social ties in Belgium.
      METHODS
      The micro longitudinal data is from the Belgian National Register. We use sequence analysis to identify clusters of legal trajectories, and multinomial logistic regressions to explore how they are related to immigrants’ characteristics.
      RESULTS
      We identify seven types of legal trajectory. While some are simple and smooth, others are characterized by moves back and forth between legal statuses and frequent periods of irregularity. Immigrants from the least developed countries and rejected asylum seekers are more likely to experience slow and chaotic trajectories. By contrast, simple and short trajectories are more common among immigrants from higher- or middle-income countries. We also find that social and family ties are a key factor in long-term immigrants experiencing smooth legal trajectories.
      CONCLUSIONS
      Legal statuses vary substantially over time, and trajectories differ widely among immigrants. Some categories of immigrants are more at risk of highly precarious long-term trajectories that may lead to situations of ‘permanent temporariness’.

      PubDate: Fri, 29 Jul 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Life expectancy loss among Native Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic
           (by Noreen Goldman, Theresa Andrasfay)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      There has been little systematic research on the mortality impact of COVID-19 in the Native American population.
      OBJECTIVE
      We provide estimates of loss of life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019 for the Native American population.
      METHODS
      We use data on age-specific all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER and the 2019 life table recently released by the National Vital Statistics System for Native Americans to calculate life tables for the Native American population in 2020 and 2021 and to obtain estimates of life expectancy reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
      RESULTS
      The pandemic has set Native Americans further behind other major racial/ethnic groups in terms of life expectancy. The estimated loss in life expectancy at birth for Native Americans is 4.5 years in 2020 and 6.4 years in 2021 relative to 2019.
      CONCLUSIONS
      These results underscore the disproportionate share of deaths experienced by Native Americans: a loss in life expectancy at birth in 2020 that is more than three years above that for Whites and about 1.5 years above the losses for the Black and Latino populations. Despite a successful vaccination campaign among Native Americans, the estimated loss in life expectancy at birth in 2021 unexpectedly exceeds that in 2020.

      PubDate: Wed, 27 Jul 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Going 'beyond the mean' in analysing immigrant health disparities (by
           Gabriella Berloffa, Francesca Paolini)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      On arrival, immigrants are on average healthier than Italian natives, but their health advantage tends to dissipate over time. This constitutes a relevant public health issue for the hosting societies, as it implies higher health care costs, lower labor market participation among immigrants, and lower tax revenues.
      OBJECTIVE
      This study is the first to take a “beyond the mean” perspective in analyzing health differences between Italians and short-say immigrants, as well as between short- and long-stay immigrants. It highlights whether health differences are concentrated in specific parts of the distributions and which observed or unobserved factors contribute to these differences.
      METHODS
      We use unconditional quantile regressions combined with Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions on data from the Italian Health Condition Survey.
      RESULTS
      We find that the health advantage of short-stay immigrants over both Italians and long- stay immigrants is concentrated in the lower part of the health distributions. In both cases, this is mainly due to unobserved factors. Observed economic characteristics are actually associated with better health for long-stay immigrants compared to short-stay immigrants. Our results reveal the need of monitoring immigrants’ health, particularly of those with poorer initial health conditions.

      PubDate: Tue, 19 Jul 2022 00:00:00
       
  • Leveraging deep neural networks to estimate age-specific mortality from
           life expectancy at birth (by Andrea Nigri, Susanna Levantesi, Josè Manuel
           Aburto)

    • Abstract: BACKGROUND
      Life expectancy is one of the most informative indicators of population health and development. Its stability, which has been observed over time, has made the prediction and forecasting of life expectancy an appealing area of study. However, predicted or estimated values of life expectancy do not tell us about age-specific mortality.
      OBJECTIVE
      Reliable estimates of age-specific mortality are essential in the study of health inequalities, well-being and to calculate other demographic indicators. This task comes with several difficulties, including a lack of reliable data in many populations. Models that relate levels of life expectancy to a full age-specific mortality profile are therefore important but scarce.
      METHODS
      We propose a deep neural networks (DNN) model to derive age-specific mortality from observed or predicted life expectancy by leveraging deep-learning algorithms akin to demography’s indirect estimation techniques.
      RESULTS
      Out-of-sample validation was used to validate the model, and the predictive performance of the DNN model was compared with two state-of-the-art models. The DNN model provides reliable estimates of age-specific mortality for the United States, Italy, Japan, and Russia using data from the Human Mortality Database.

      PubDate: Sat, 16 Jul 2022 00:00:00
       
 
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