Abstract: BACKGROUND Behavioral changes are needed to limit the spread and mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE We measured knowledge and behaviors related to COVID-19 during the early stages of the pandemic in Malawi (Southeast Africa). METHODS Using lists of phone numbers collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, we contacted a sample of adults by mobile phone in the six weeks after the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in the country. We interviewed 619 respondents (79.5% response rate). RESULTS Approximately half of respondents perceived no risk or only limited risk that they would become infected with the novel coronavirus. Contrary to projections from epidemiological models, a large percentage of respondents (72.2%) expected to be severely ill if they became infected. Increased hand washing and avoiding crowds were the most frequently reported strategies used to prevent spreading SARS-CoV-2. The adoption of other protective behaviors (e.g., face masks) was limited. Respondents in urban areas had more accurate knowledge of disease patterns and had adopted more protective behaviors than rural respondents. CONCLUSIONS In the first weeks of the pandemic, the adoption of preventive behaviors remained limited in Malawi, possibly due to low perceived risk of infection among a large fraction of the population. Additional information campaigns are needed to address misperceptions about the risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the likelihood of severe illness due to COVID-19.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The ternary balance scheme is a visualization technique that encodes three-part compositions as a mixture of three primary colors. The technique works best if the compositional data are well spread out across the domain but fails to show structure in very unbalanced data. OBJECTIVE I extend the ternary balance scheme such that it can be utilized to show variation in unbalanced compositional surfaces. METHODS By reprojecting an unbalanced compositional data set around its center of location and visualizing the transformed data with a standard ternary balance scheme, the internal variation of the data becomes visible. An appropriate centering operation has been defined within the field of compositional data analysis. RESULTS Using Europe’s regional workforce structure by economic sector as an example, I have demonstrated the utility of the centered ternary balance scheme in visualizing variation across unbalanced compositional surfaces.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Estimates of under-5 mortality (U5M) for sub-Saharan African populations often rely heavily on full birth histories (FBHs) collected in surveys and model age patterns of mortality calibrated against vital statistics from other populations. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) are alternate sources of population-based data in much of sub-Saharan Africa, which are less formally utilized in estimation. OBJECTIVE In this study we compare the age pattern of U5M in different African data sources (HDSSs, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS)), and contrast these with the historical record as summarized in the Human Mortality Database and model age patterns. METHODS We examined the relative levels of neonatal, postneonatal, infant, and child mortality across data sources. We directly compared estimates for DHS and MICS subnational regions with HDSS, and used linear regression to identify data and contextual attributes that correlated with the disparity between estimates. RESULTS HDSS and FBH data suggests that African populations have higher levels of child mortality and lower infant mortality than the historic record. This age pattern is most explicit for Western African populations, but also characterizes data for other subregions. The comparison between HDSS and FBH data suggests that FBH estimates of child mortality are biased downward. The comparison is less conclusive for neonatal and infant mortality.
Abstract: BACKGROUND By their nature, the impact of epidemics on mortality varies geographically, suggesting that the geographical impact of an epidemic implies a social impact. OBJECTIVE To examine the association between two measures of the social composition of a local area and age- and sex-standardised Covid-19 and other mortality in the period 1 March to 31 July 2020. The measures are how deprived an area is and what proportion of its population is non-white. METHODS Using spatial autoregressive regression we analyse geographical variation in age- and sex-standardised Covid-19 mortality among English local authorities between 1 March and 31 July 2020 in relation to measures of social composition, and we compare it with mortality from non-Covid sources in the same period, and with all-causes mortality in 2018. RESULTS Areas with higher social deprivation have a higher Covid-19 mortality rate, but the association is much weaker than between social deprivation and mortality rates more generally. An area’s proportion non-white has a strong positive association with Covid-19 mortality, in contrast to a negative association with 2020 non-Covid and with 2018 mortality. CONCLUSIONS Covid-19 mortality is related to the social composition of areas in different ways than current non-Covid mortality or past mortality.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Demographers have emphasized the importance of age in explaining the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on mortality. However, the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age should be contextualized in relation to other causes of death. OBJECTIVE To compare the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality with other causes of death and across countries, and to use these regularities to impute age-specific death counts in countries with limited data. METHODS The COVID-19 mortality doubling time in a Gompertz context was compared with 65 major causes of death using US vital statistics. COVID-19 fatality doubling time was similarly compared across 27 countries and used for estimating death counts by age in Israel as a case in point. RESULTS First, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age at a Gompertz rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels are 2.8 to 8.2 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between both COVID-19 mortality and fatality and age varies considerably across countries. CONCLUSIONS The increase in COVID-19 mortality with age resembles the population rate of aging. Country differences in the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality and fatality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, or data quality.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Understanding the relationship between populations at different scales plays an important role in many demographic analyses. OBJECTIVE We show that when a population can be partitioned into subgroups, the death rate for the entire population can be written as the weighted harmonic mean of the death rates in each subgroup, where the weights are given by the numbers of deaths in each subgroup. This decomposition can be generalized to other types of occurrence-exposure rate. Using different weights, the death rate for the entire population can also be expressed as an arithmetic mean of the death rates in each subgroup.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Although there is a lot of research analyzing the distribution and pluralization of living arrangements, only a few studies have focused on the partnership forms of the oldest old population. In particular, very little is known about the prevalence of ‘living-apart-together’ (LAT) relationships in this age group. OBJECTIVE This study examines the extent of coresidential partnerships and LAT relationships among the population aged 80 years and older in the most populated German state, North Rhine-Westphalia. METHODS We use cross-sectional data from the 2016–2018 survey Quality of Life and Subjective Well-Being of the Very Old in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW80+). The representative sample contains 1,863 individuals aged 80 years or older, including 211 nursing home residents. We present descriptive statistics considering differences in gender, age, and marital status. RESULTS The average share of LAT relationships among old-age partnerships is 13.3%. While the share of partnerships is declining among the oldest old individuals from the age of 80 years onward, the proportion of LAT relationships in relation to coresidential partnerships is increasing. Marital unions in which partners do not share a common household turned out to be a prevalent living arrangement.
Abstract: BACKGROUND In recent decades there has been growing interest in the concept of intensive parenting. However, the literature is mostly qualitative and based on Anglo-Saxon countries. This raises the question of how best to operationalise the concept in a wider cross-national setting. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to operationalise the theoretical concept of intensive parenting in a cross-national perspective. METHODS The data for this study come from the CROss-National Online Survey panel [CRONOS], conducted in Estonia, Great Britain, and Slovenia in 2017. The analysis is based on 18 items on norms related to raising children. Exploratory factor analyses were carried out to identify dimensions of intensive parenting. Variation by respondents’ sociodemographics for the different dimensions was also analysed. RESULTS The results reveal four main dimensions regarding contemporary norms of parenting: a child-centred approach, a focus on stimulating children’s development, personal responsibility to do one’s best for one’s children, and pressure to follow experts’ advice. These four dimensions were found in all three countries. CONCLUSIONS The results partly confirm the conception of intensive parenting originally suggested by Hays (1986). They also reveal that the phenomenon is not restricted to Anglo-Saxon countries but can be operationalised in a similar way in other countries. The findings also reveal some variation by sociodemographic characteristics, but not in a systematic way.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged as a global threat at the beginning of 2020, spreading around the globe at different times and rates. Within a country, such differences provide the opportunity for strategic allocations of health care resources. OBJECTIVE We aim to provide a tool to estimate and visualize differences in the spread of the pandemic at the subnational level. Specifically, we focus on the case of Italy, a country that has been harshly hit by the virus. METHODS We model the number of SARS-CoV-2 reported cases and deaths as well as the number of hospital admissions at the Italian subnational level with Poisson regression. We employ parametric and nonparametric functional forms for the hazard function. In the parametric approach, model selection is performed using an automatic criterion based on the statistical significance of the estimated parameters and on goodness-of-fit assessment. In the nonparametric approach, we employ out-of-sample forecasting error minimization. RESULTS For each province and region, fitted models are plotted against observed data, demonstrating the appropriateness of the modeling approach. Moreover, estimated counts and rates of change for each outcome variable are plotted on maps of the country. This provides a direct visual assessment of the geographic distribution of risk areas as well as insights on the evolution of the pandemic over time.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The proportion of young adults living in one-person households (OPHs) has increased remarkably worldwide. Recent literature suggests that socioeconomic development established favorable conditions for individuals to live alone. Few studies have yet examined the complex relationship between contextual-level socioeconomic development, individual-level factors, and living in OPHs. METHODS We drew data from a subsample of young adults (aged between 20 and 35) from China 1% Population Sample Survey 2005 (ni = 582,139; nj = 345). Two-level random-intercept logistic regression models were employed to examine the relationship between prefecture-level socioeconomic development and living in OPHs. Two series of models, controlling for single and migrant statuses, and other sociodemographic variables, were estimated for male and female separately. RESULTS First, there are positive associations between singlehood/migration and living in OPHs. Being single or a migrant are the most important individual-level correlates of living alone. Second, we found a strong positive curvilinear correlation between prefecture-level development and living alone that are well explained by the concentration of internal migrants but not the proportion of singles in the developed regions. Third, after controlling for migrant status, we only found a weak positive contextual effect of development on living alone. Yet, there are cross-level interaction effects that the associations between prefecture-level development and living alone are strong for single and migrant adults.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Late age at marriage and rising rates of singlehood increasingly characterize East Asian societies. For Japan, these are major contributors to the very low birth rate. OBJECTIVE We analyze two unique data sets: dating records covering a two-year period from one of Japan’s largest marriage agencies and in-depth interviews with 30 highly-educated Japanese singles. The longitudinal nature of the quantitative data allows us to test hypotheses about how single men’s and women’s preferences for partners’ characteristics adjust over time. The qualitative data provides a more fine-grained look at Japanese singles’ partner preferences. METHODS We employ fixed-effects regression models to analyze Japanese men’s and women’s preferences for the relative and absolute education, income, and age of potential marriage partners. RESULTS Both the quantitative and qualitative data suggest that Japanese women continue to highly value men’s income-earning capacity. Men, in contrast, value a partner with moderate income-earning potential. Women’s and men’s preferences for partner’s education are somewhat weaker, and women broaden their educational preference over time. CONCLUSIONS Japanese men’s and women’s preferences for a potential partner’s characteristics are largely consistent with Becker’s theory of gender-role specialization. But we also find evidence consistent with Oppenheimer’s expectation that men are coming to value women’s income-earning capacity more highly than in the past.
Open Access journal
