 Subjects -> STATISTICS (Total: 130 journals)
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- Interview with Professor Colin Aitken
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Authors: Aitken C.
Pages: 63 - 68
Abstract: This is the first in a series of occasional articles in Law, Probability & Risk: interviews with prominent statisticians who have contributed to the field. They will share their influences, achievements and expectations of where research in this area may head in the future.
PubDate: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgac001
Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 2 (2022)
- On the interplay between practical and statistical significance in equal
employment cases-
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Authors: Gastwirth J; Miao W, Pan Q.
Pages: 69 - 87
Abstract: AbstractThe distinction between statistical and practical significance often arises in the analysis of large data sets, where seemingly small disparities can reach statistical significance at the 0.05 level. In 2014, the opinion in Jones v. Boston created a split in the circuits when it relied solely on statistical significance. The opinion noted that there is no generally accepted definition of practical significance and that the phrase may simply mean that the person using the term views the disparity as substantial enough that a plaintiff should be able to sue. In July 2019, the Office of Federal Compliance Programs (OFCCP) proposed updated procedures for the way it considers both practical and statistical significance when reviewing the employment practices of government contractors.11 On 10 November 2020, the Agency issued its final rules, which downplayed the role of statistical significance.22 The main measures of practical significance mentioned in the notices OFCCP issued in the Federal Register or its Frequently Asked Questions guide33 as well as some other measures of practical significance that have been proposed are studied in this article. The results of the paper support the First Circuit and OFCCP in their views that there is no single measure of practical significance that can be recommended for use as the sole criterion for deciding whether the disparity has practical importance. Nevertheless, the paper includes an empirical guideline combining the odds ratio and difference between success rates to judge practical significance as well as recommendations for balancing Type I and Type II errors and their consequences in the context of the case in determining the level required for statistical significance.
PubDate: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgac002
Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 2 (2022)
- A summary of the statistical aspects of the procedures for resolving
potential employment discrimination recently issued by the Office of
Federal Contract Compliance along with a commentary-
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Authors: Gastwirth J.
Pages: 89 - 112
Abstract: AbstractOn 5 November 2020, the Office of Federal Contract Compliance in the Department of Labor issued new rules codifying the procedures it will use to resolve equal employment issues. First, this article summarizes the new rules focusing on how the agency will use and evaluate statistical evidence in its monitoring of government contractors’ compliance with equal employment laws. After noting the diminished role of statistical evidence in the new rules, the likely effect of them on the use of statistical data and analyses in equal employment proceedings are explored. The logical and statistical reasoning underlying several aspects of the new rules is also questioned. Because the new rules refer to a report of the Chamber of Commerce that, in part, criticized the agency from bringing a case against a firm, data from the case are re-analyzed. The statistical analysis provides support for the position of OFCCP.
PubDate: Mon, 07 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgac003
Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 2 (2022)
- A critique of the literature on past convictions and the probability of
guilt-
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Authors: Hunt I.
Pages: 113 - 133
Abstract: AbstractThis article is a critical review of the growing literature that applies probability analysis to past convictions, in the context of determining guilt in criminal trials. Recent arguments for potentially relaxing rules that exclude past conviction evidence are sustained, but particular flaws and limitations in the theses from Hamer (2019, The significant probative value of tendency evidence. Melbourne University Law Review 42, 506–550) and Redmayne (2015, Character in the criminal trial. Oxford University Press) are exposed. Much of the critique of Redmayne (2015) made by Robinson (2020, Incorporating implicit knowledge into the Bayesian model of prior conviction evidence: some reality checks for the theory of comparative propensity. Law, Probability and Risk 19, 119–137) is dismissed. We should aim to foster a continued lively debate in the literature, gather more data, and narrow the distance between those arguing about theoretical probability analysis and those focused on actual courtroom usage of past conviction evidence.
PubDate: Wed, 18 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgac004
Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 2 (2022)
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