 Subjects -> STATISTICS (Total: 130 journals)
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- The Two-Margin Problem in Insurance Markets
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Pages: 237 - 257
Abstract: AbstractInsurance markets often feature consumer sorting along both an extensive margin (whether to buy) and an intensive margin (which plan to buy). We present a new graphical theoretical framework that extends a workhorse model to incorporate both selection margins simultaneously. A key insight from our framework is that policies aimed at addressing one margin of selection often involve an economically meaningful trade-off on the other margin in terms of prices, enrollment, and welfare. Using data from Massachusetts, we illustrate these trade-offs in an empirical sufficient statistics approach that is tightly linked to the graphical framework we develop.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01070
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Making a Market: Infrastructure, Integration, and the Rise of Innovation
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Pages: 258 - 274
Abstract: AbstractWe exploit exogenous variation arising from the historical rollout of the Swedish railroad network across municipalities to identify the impacts of improved transport infrastructure on innovative activity. A network connection led to a local surge in patenting due to an increased entry and productivity of inventors. As the railroad network expanded, inventors in connected areas began to develop ideas with applications outside the local economy, which were subsequently sold to firms along the network. Our findings suggest that reductions in communication and transportation costs were an important driver of the historical emergence of a market for ideas.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01067
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Gender Differences in Politician Persistence
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Pages: 275 - 291
Abstract: AbstractThis paper documents gender differences in the career paths of novice politicians. Using trajectories of over 11,000 candidates for California local offices and a regression discontinuity approach, I investigate the persistence of candidates after they win or lose elections. Losing an election causes over 50% more attrition among female than male candidates. Yet the gender gap in persistence depends on the setting: there is a smaller gap among candidates for high female representation offices and among candidates with prior elective experience. I discuss how the expected costs and benefits of running again potentially explain the gender gap in persistence.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01099
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- How Campaign Ads Stimulate Political Interest
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Pages: 292 - 310
Abstract: AbstractWe empirically investigate key dynamic features of advertising competition in elections using a new data set of very high-frequency, household-level television viewing matched to campaign advertising exposures. First, we show that exposure to campaign advertising increases households' consumption of news programming by 3 or 4 minutes on average over the next 24 hours. The identification compares households viewing a program when a political ad appeared to viewers in the same market who barely missed it. Second, we show that these effects decline over the campaign. Together, these dynamic forces help rationalize why candidates deploy much of their advertising budgets well before election day.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01062
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Skill Versus Voice in Local Development
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Pages: 311 - 326
Abstract: AbstractWhere the state is weak, traditional authorities control the local provision of public goods. These leaders come from an older, less educated generation and often rule in an authoritarian and exclusionary fashion. This means the skills of community members may not be leveraged in policymaking. We experimentally evaluate two solutions to this problem in Sierra Leone: one encourages delegation to higher-skill individuals, and a second fosters broader inclusion in decision making. In a real-world infrastructure grants competition, a public nudge to delegate led to better outcomes than the default of chiefly control, whereas attempts to boost participation were largely ineffective.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01082
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Cash Transfers, Food Prices, and Nutrition Impacts on Ineligible Children
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Pages: 327 - 343
Abstract: AbstractCan cash aid harm nonrecipients by raising local prices' We show that a household-targeted cash transfer in the Philippines increases the prices of perishable foods in some markets and raises stunting among nonbeneficiary children by 11 percentage points (34%). Impacts increase in the size of the village income shock and remoteness---and are sustained two and a half years after program introduction. Price effects from an experimental sample are confirmed with national expenditure surveys collected during program scale-up. Household-targeted cash transfers can thus generate local spillovers that undermine program goals. Selected geographic targeting may avoid price spillovers at moderate additional cost.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01061
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy
Announcement-
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Pages: 344 - 358
Abstract: AbstractPolicies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is an particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine production in Colombia, offsetting almost 20 years and billions of dollars of U.S.-backed efforts to stop drug production and cartel action.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01059
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas
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Pages: 359 - 375
Abstract: AbstractWe study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease rents in nearby units by about 6% relative to units slightly farther away or near sites developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. We show that new buildings absorb many high-income households and increase the local housing stock substantially. If buildings improve nearby amenities, the effect is not large enough to increase rents. Amenity improvements could be limited because most buildings go into already-changing neighborhoods or buildings could create disamenities such as congestion.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01055
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Tax Progressivity and Self-Employment Dynamics
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Pages: 376 - 391
Abstract: AbstractAnalysis of the relationship between taxes and self-employment should account for the interplay between responses in self-employment and wage employment. To this end, we estimate a two-state multispell duration model which accounts for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a large longitudinal administrative data set for Norway for 1993 to 2011. Our findings confirm theoretical predictions and are robust to various changes to definitions and sample selections. A policy experiment simulating a flatter tax schedule in the year 2000 is found to encourage self-employment, delivering a net increase of predicted inflow into self-employment from 2.8% to 5.3%.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01046
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic
Implications-
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Pages: 392 - 407
Abstract: AbstractUsing oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements, successfully replicates the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the Late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism in an estimated model, we document that an increase in the persistence of TFP-driven fluctuations in oil demand largely accounts for investors' perceptions that oil-price movements became increasingly permanent during the 2000s. Learning alters the macroeconomic impact of shocks, making the responses time dependent and conditional on perceptions of shocks' likely persistence.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01065
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields
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Pages: 408 - 424
Abstract: AbstractWe build a model of bond yields in an economy with secular changes to inflation, real rate, and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that do not influence the long-run real rate and output growth. Before the anchoring of inflation around the mid-1990s, nominal shocks lifted the output gap and inflation. This led to a higher and steeper yield curve because the short rate was expected to peak after several quarters, following declines in the responses of growth and inflation. With inflation anchored, nominal shocks have small impacts on inflation, output, and bond yields, mostly via the term premium.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01034
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- The TFP Channel of Credit Supply Shocks
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Pages: 425 - 441
Abstract: AbstractRecent work stresses a potentially important relation between credit supply shocks and aggregate TFP based on factor misallocation. I take three steps to examine this relation. First, using state-of-the-art credit supply shock and aggregate TFP measures, I show that an adverse credit supply shock has a weak and very short-lived effect on aggregate TFP. Second, using firm-level data, I show that firm-level capital stock responses to an adverse credit supply shock produce an insignificant and negligible capital-misallocation–induced TFP response. Third, using employment data by fine firm-size category classification, I also find a negligible labor-misallocation–induced TFP response. These findings suggest that the TFP channel of credit supply shocks has a limited role in their transmission to the real economy.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01035
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities
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Pages: 442 - 457
Abstract: AbstractThe “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of nonannuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01048
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Strategic Citation: A Reassessment
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Pages: 458 - 466
Abstract: AbstractThe United States patent system is unique in that it requires applicants to cite documents they know to be relevant to the examination of their patent applications. Lampe (2012) presents evidence that applicants strategically withhold 21%–33% of relevant citations from patent examiners, suggesting that many patents are fraudulently obtained. We challenge this view. We first show that Lampe's empirical design is inconsistent with both legal standards and standard operating procedures, including how courts identify strategic withholding. We then compile comprehensive data to reassess the empirical basis for Lampe's main claim. We find no evidence that applicants withhold citations.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01051
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Macroeconomic Conditions When Young Shape Job Preferences for Life
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Pages: 467 - 473
Abstract: AbstractPreferences for monetary and nonmonetary job attributes are important for understanding workers' motivation and the organization of work. Little is known, however, about how those job preferences are formed. We study how macroeconomic conditions when young shape workers' job preferences for life. Using variation in income-per-capita across U.S. regions and over time since the 1920s, we find that job preferences vary in systematic ways with experienced macroeconomic conditions during young adulthood. Recessions create cohorts of workers who give higher priority to income, whereas booms make cohorts care more about job meaning for the rest of their lives.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01057
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Sensitivity to Calibrated Parameters
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Pages: 474 - 481
Abstract: AbstractA common approach to estimation of dynamic economic models is to calibrate a subset of model parameters and keep them fixed when estimating the remaining parameters. Calibrated parameters likely affect conclusions based on the model, but estimation time often makes a systematic investigation of the sensitivity to calibrated parameters infeasible. I propose a simple and computationally low-cost measure of the sensitivity of parameters and other objects of interest to the calibrated parameters. In the main empirical application, I revisit the analysis of life-cycle savings motives in Gourinchas and Parker (2002) and show that some estimates are sensitive to calibrations.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01054
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
- Bureaucratic Representation and State Responsiveness during Times of
Crisis: The 1918 Pandemic in India-
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Pages: 482 - 491
Abstract: AbstractI combine personnel records with vital statistics for 1910 to 1925 to study how bureaucratic representation affected mortality in 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exploiting the rotation of senior colonial officers across districts and a cross-border comparison, towns headed by Indian (as opposed to British) district officers experienced 15 percentage points lower deaths. The lower mortality effects extended beyond the urban areas and coincided with greater responsiveness in relief provision. Bureaucratic representation can thus be a powerful way to increase state responsiveness during times of crisis.
PubDate: Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01060
Issue No: Vol. 105, No. 2 (2023)
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