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Pages: 621 - 635 Abstract: AbstractWe use exogenously assigned general practitioners to study the effects of female role models on girls' educational outcomes. Girls who are exposed to female general practitioners are more likely to sort into male-dominated education programs in high school, most notably science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). These effects persist as they enter college and select majors. The effects are larger for high-ability girls with low-educated mothers, suggesting that female role models improve intergenerational mobility and narrow the gifted gap. This demonstrates that role model effects in education need not involve individuals in the classroom but can arise due to everyday interactions with medical professionals. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00975 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 636 - 651 Abstract: AbstractAs in other OECD countries, women in New Zealand earn substantially less than men with similar observable characteristics. In this paper, we use fifteen years of linked employer-employee data to examine different explanations for this gender wage gap. We find an overall gender wage gap between 20% and 28%, of which gender differences in sorting across occupations explain 9%, across industries 16% to 19%, and across firms 5% to 9%, respectively. The remaining within-firm gender wage gap is still between 13% and 17%. Around 5 percentage points of this are explained by women being less willing to bargain or less successful at bargaining to capture firm-specific rents. Gender differences in productivity also explain at most 4.5 percentage points of this remaining gap. These results suggest that taste discrimination is also important for explaining why women are paid less than their relative contribution to firm output. Across-industry and over-time variation in the gender wage-productivity gap further support this conclusion. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01000 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 652 - 667 Abstract: AbstractThis paper shows robust effects of trade shocks on within-firm wage inequality through changes in firm hierarchies. It uses two distinct research designs—one considering firm-level shocks to foreign demand and transportation costs, the other analyzing the Muslim boycott of Danish exports after the 2006 “cartoon crisis.” Consistent with knowledge-based and incentive-based hierarchy models, trade shocks affect organizational choices through production scale. Adding a hierarchy layer increases inequality throughout the organization, particularly widening the 90-50 wage gap and pay differences between top and bottom layers. Delayering after the boycott leads to wage compression through wage cuts, demotions, and employee turnover. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00998 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 668 - 685 Abstract: AbstractSectoral heterogeneity matters for monetary policy. Using CPI microdata, we estimate for 227 products a time-varying menu-cost model to investigate the quantitative relevance of this heterogeneity. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in all structural parameters. Heterogeneity in the Calvo component of the pricing friction is, however, the main source of heterogeneity in price rigidity. Cross-sectoral heterogeneity amplifies the output effect of a monetary shock by a factor of about 2.5, compared to a single-sector model estimated with mean moments. Heterogeneity in the Calvo parameter plays a key role in this amplification. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00968 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 686 - 704 Abstract: AbstractWe develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00974 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 705 - 717 Abstract: AbstractHigher-order risk preferences are important determinants of economic behavior. We apply insights from behavioral economics: we measure higher-order risk preferences for pure gains and losses. We find a reflection effect not only for second-order risk preferences, as did Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but also for higher-order risk preferences: we find risk aversion, prudence and intemperance for gains and much more risk-loving preferences, imprudence and temperance for losses. These findings are at odds with a universal preference for combining good with bad or good with good, which previous results suggest may underlie higher-order risk preferences. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00980 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 718 - 735 Abstract: AbstractThis paper identifies the extent to which knowledge from U.S. universities drives industry agglomeration. Establishment-level data indicate faster growth in employment, wages, and corporate innovation after the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act's shock to the spread of innovation from universities in industries more closely related to the nearby university's innovative strengths. Federal research funding amplified the effect. University knowledge spillovers strengthen with geographic proximity, density, and local skills. Consistent with spatial equilibrium models, the growth effect is driven by nearby entry in university-linked industries, especially of multiunit expansions; these firms disproportionately partner with universities in R&D, transfer IP, and innovate. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01027 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 736 - 747 Abstract: AbstractWe study the importance of social interactions on occupational choice in Victorian London using a multinomial choice model within an incomplete social network. Individuals form heterogeneous rational expectations about their peers' behaviors, taking into account their characteristics and the strength of their ties. We show the conditions under which the endogenous, exogenous, and correlated effects can be identified and a unique equilibrium can be established, Using a novel data set, we proxy social groups by parish boundaries and strength of ties by geographic distances, Our results show the importance of the endogenous effects and reveal distinct effects by occupation. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00979 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 748 - 763 Abstract: AbstractWe assess the role of monetary incentives in a mission-oriented organization by randomly assigning workers to one of two bonus schemes, incentivizing either the performance of a microcredit program (bottom line) or the empowerment of clients (mission). We find that the credit bonus improved credit-related outcomes but undermined the social mission, while the social bonus did not harm the bottom line. These results are consistent with a multitasking model with production spillovers or with prosocial behavior. We show that when mission-related rewards are not feasible, organizations that care about both the mission and the bottom line prefer flat wages to incentives. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01001 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 764 - 779 Abstract: AbstractHow feasible is violence early-warning prediction' Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well for these histories. Even with unusually rich data, however, our models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. These “best-case” scenarios with annual data fall short of workable early-warning systems. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01016 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 780 - 796 Abstract: AbstractThis paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell × year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1∘×1∘ latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and antimalaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01050 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 797 - 806 Abstract: AbstractThis paper explores the aggregate economic effects from India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which provides up to 100 days of labor to rural laborers at the mandated minimum wage. We examine the within-district change to nighttime lights, a proxy for economic development, and banking deposits using the staggered program rollout for identification. We find consistent and robust evidence that NREGS increased aggregate economic output by 1% to 2% per capita measured by nighttime lights. This effect, however, is not equal across districts. We observe no positive effect of the program in poorer districts, illuminating an important source of heterogeneity. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00993 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 807 - 818 Abstract: AbstractLocal pollution exposures have a disproportionate impact on minority households, but the root causes remain unclear. This study conducts a correspondence experiment on a major online housing platform to test whether housing discrimination constrains minority access to housing options in markets with significant sources of airborne chemical toxics. We find that renters with African American or Hispanic/Latinx names are 41% less likely than renters with white names to receive responses for properties in low-exposure locations. We find no evidence of discriminatory constraints in high-exposure locations, indicating that discrimination increases relative access to housing choices at elevated exposure risk. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00992 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 819 - 827 Abstract: AbstractMost criminal defendants cannot afford to hire an attorney. To provide constitutionally mandated legal services, states commonly use either private court-appointed attorneys or a public defender organization. This paper investigates the relative efficacy of these two modes of indigent defense by comparing outcomes of codefendants assigned to different types of attorneys within the same case. Using data from San Francisco, I show that in multiple defendant cases, public defender assignment is plausibly as good as random. I find that public defenders reduce the probability of any prison sentence by 22% and the length of prison sentences by 10%. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00976 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 828 - 844 Abstract: AbstractWe evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00977 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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Pages: 845 - 855 Abstract: AbstractIt is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007–2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures and with exchange rates. Our results support the narrative that the U.S. dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis. PubDate: Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00978 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 4 (2022)
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