Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Authors:Barrera-Osorio F; Blakeslee DS, Hoover M, et al. Pages: 399 - 416 Abstract: We evaluate a program that recruited local entrepreneurs to open and operate new schools in 200 underserved villages in Sindh, Pakistan. School operators received a per student subsidy to provide tuition-free primary education, and half the villages received a higher subsidy for females. The program increased enrollment by 32 percentage points and test scores by 0.63 standard deviations, with no difference across the two subsidy schemes. Estimating a structural model of the demand and supply for school inputs, we find that program schools selected inputs similar to those of a social planner who internalizes all the education benefits to society. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01002 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Aucejo E; Romano T, Taylor ES. Pages: 417 - 430 Abstract: We document measurable, lasting gains in student achievement caused by a change in teachers' evaluation incentives. A short-lived rule created a discontinuity in teachers' incentives when allocating effort across their assigned students: students who failed an initial end-of-year test were retested a few weeks later, and then only the higher of the two scores was used when calculating the teacher's evaluation score. One year later, long after the discontinuity in incentives had ended, retested students scored 0.03σ higher than nonretested students. Otherwise identical students were treated differently by teachers because of evaluation incentives, despite arguably equal returns to teacher effort. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00962 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Ghosal S; Jana S, Mani A, et al. Pages: 431 - 448 Abstract: This paper studies the link between self-image and behavior among those who face stigma due to poverty and social exclusion. Using a randomized field experiment with sex workers in Kolkata (India), we examine whether a psychological intervention to mitigate adverse effects of internalized stigma can induce behavior change. We find significant improvements in participants' self-image, their savings choices, and health clinic visits. Administrative data confirm that these changes in savings and preventive health behavior persist 15 and 21 months later, respectively. Our findings highlight the potential of purely psychological interventions to improve the life choices and outcomes of marginalized groups. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01013 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Murphy DA; Nourani V, Lee DR. Pages: 449 - 464 Abstract: This paper shows the causal relationship between mutual religious association and the formation of social ties. We analyze dyadic relationships and show that joint attendance at a religious institution (RI) increases the probability of sharing information with and trusting a peer. We use a novel spatial instrumental variable strategy that combines insights from homestead inheritance institutions with triangular distances between peers and RI locations within villages in Kenya. We find that shared attendance at an RI increases the likelihood of receiving advice from a peer by 30 percentage points, demonstrating the strong impact of weak ties formed through social spaces. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00969 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Britto DC. Pages: 465 - 482 Abstract: Lump-sum job displacement policies (e.g., severance pay) are often presented as a better alternative to contingent policies (e.g., unemployment insurance) in the context of developing countries, under the rationale that the former are less harmful to formal employment as they do not incentivize substitution from formal to informal jobs. First, this paper provides original evidence on the employment effects of lump-sum income in the context of a developing country with high labor informality. A regression discontinuity (RD) design, using Brazilian data, shows that a transfer equivalent to fifteen days of earnings (a) increases the duration out of a formal job by 1.9 weeks, (b) reduces monthly earnings in the next job by 1.6%, and (c) reduces total earnings in the formal labor market by 3.6% over a three-year period. Second, the paper studies the impact of a one-month extension in unemployment insurance (UI) on a comparable sample of displaced workers. UI is shown to have a stronger impact on the duration out of a formal job compared with a lump-sum transfer. In addition, a novel exercise matching administrative and survey data shows that 57% of the decrease in formal employment caused by UI is compensated by an increase in the incidence of informal employment. However, workers receiving the UI extension partially recover the initial employment loss over time in such a way that the adverse impact on employment over a three-year period is similar compared with the lump-sum transfer. Moreover, UI is found to be less harmful to reemployment wages, possibly because it improves workers' bargaining power as it offers insurance against the duration of joblessness. Overall, the UI extension is less detrimental to total earnings in the formal labor market over a three-year period. Hence, although these findings indicate that contingent job insurance policies have a stronger impact on the initial duration out of a formal job and indeed incentivize informal employment, they do not support the notion that lump-sum policies are less harmful to formal employment and earnings in the medium term. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00948 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Novan K; Smith A, Zhou T. Pages: 483 - 500 Abstract: In 1978, California adopted building codes designed to reduce the energy used for temperature control. Using a rich data set of hourly electricity consumption for 158,112 houses in Sacramento, we estimate that the average house built just after 1978 uses 8% to 13% less electricity for cooling than a similar house built just before 1978. Comparing the estimated savings to the policy's projected cost, our results suggest the policy passes a cost-benefit test. In settings where market failures prevent energy costs from being completely passed through to home prices, building codes can serve as a cost- effective tool for improving energy efficiency. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00967 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Słoczyński T. Pages: 501 - 509 Abstract: Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable (“treatment”) using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of two parameters, which under certain conditions can be interpreted as the average treatment effects on the treated and untreated. The weights on these parameters are inversely related to the proportion of observations in each group. Reliance on these implicit weights can have serious consequences for applied work, as I illustrate with two well-known applications. I develop simple diagnostic tools that empirical researchers can use to avoid potential biases. Software for implementing these methods is available in R and Stata. In an important special case, my diagnostics require only the knowledge of the proportion of treated units. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00953 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Lewis DJ. Pages: 510 - 524 Abstract: Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits variance changes between regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. Weak identification occurs when shock variances change very little or multiple variances change close to proportionally, making standard inference unreliable. I propose an F-test for weak identification in a common simple version of the model. More generally, I establish conditions for validity of nonconservative robust inference on subsets of the parameters, which can be used to test for weak identification. I study monetary policy shocks identified using heteroskedasticity in high-frequency data. I detect weak identification, invalidating standard inference, in daily data, while intraday data provide strong identification. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00963 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Currie J; Mueller-Smith M, Rossin-Slater M. Pages: 525 - 540 Abstract: We study the effects of prenatal exposure to violent crime on infant health, using New York City crime records linked to mothers' addresses in birth records data. We address endogeneity of assault exposure with three strategies and find that in utero assault exposure significantly increases the incidence of adverse birth outcomes. We calculate that the annual social cost of assault during pregnancy in the United States is more than $3.8 billion. Since infant health predicts long-term wellbeing and disadvantaged women are disproportionately likely to be domestic abuse victims, violence in utero may be an important channel for intergenerational transmission of inequality. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00965 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Boyer M; d'Astous P, Michaud P. Pages: 541 - 556 Abstract: In this study, we conduct a stated-choice experiment to analyze the decision to contribute to either a front- or back-loaded tax-preferred retirement savings account. Our experimental design includes a randomized financial education intervention that provides information on the tax implications of both types of account. Respondents who were exposed to the intervention have greater knowledge of these accounts and make contribution choices that increase their after-tax income. Using a well-defined benchmark, we show that on average, respondents who experienced the intervention increase their discounted welfare by about 4% of their contribution amount. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00973 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Barnichon R; Matthes C, Ziegenbein A. Pages: 557 - 570 Abstract: While episodes of financial distress are followed by large and persistent drops in economic activity, structural time series analyses point to relatively mild and transitory effects of financial market disruptions. We argue that these seemingly contradictory findings are due to the asymmetric effects of financial shocks, which have been predicted theoretically but not taken into account empirically. We estimate a model designed to identify the (possibly asymmetric) effects of financial market disruptions, and we find that a favorable financial shock—an easing of financial conditions—has little effect on output, but an adverse shock has large and persistent effects. In a counterfactual exercise, we find that over two-thirds of the gap between current US GDP and its 207 precrisis trend was caused by the 2007–2008 financial shocks. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00972 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Gaessler F; Wagner S. Pages: 571 - 586 Abstract: Pharmaceutical firms enjoy market exclusivity for new drugs from concurrent patent protection and exclusivity of the clinical trials data submitted for market approval. Patent invalidation during drug development renders data exclusivity the sole source of protection and shifts the period of market exclusivity. In instrumental variables regressions, we quantify the effect of a one-year reduction in expected market exclusivity on the likelihood of drug commercialization. The effect is largely driven by patent invalidations early in the drug development process and by the responses of large originators. We provide estimates of the responsiveness of R&D investments to market exclusivity expectations. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00987 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Dasgupta U; Mani S, Sharma S, et al. Pages: 587 - 601 Abstract: We exploit the variation in admission cutoffs across colleges at a leading Indian university to estimate the causal effects of enrolling in a selective college on cognitive attainment, economic preferences, and Big Five personality traits. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that enrolling in a selective college improves university exam scores of the marginally admitted women and makes them less overconfident and less risk averse, while men in selective colleges experience a decline in extraversion and conscientiousness. We find differences in peer quality and rank concerns to be driving our findings. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00966 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Balestra S; Eugster B, Liebert H. Pages: 602 - 618 Abstract: In light of the debate over inclusive education, this paper evaluates the impact of exposure to special needs (SN) peers. More classroom peers with SN lower performance, the probability of entering postcompulsory education, and income at ages 17 to 25. SN students and students at the lower end of the achievement distribution suffer most from higher inclusion. We analyze the effects of reallocation policies to alleviate negative externalities, and demonstrate that inclusion is preferable to segregation in terms of maximizing average test scores. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00960 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)
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Authors:Carriero A; Clark TE, Marcellino M. Pages: 619a - 619k Abstract: Carriero, Clark, and Marcellino (2018, CCM2018) used a large BVAR model with a factor structure to stochastic volatility to produce an estimate of time-varying macroeconomic and financial uncertainty and assess the effects of uncertainty on the economy. The results in CCM2018 were based on an estimation algorithm that has recently been shown to be incorrect by Bognanni (2022) and fixed by Carriero et al. (2022). In this corrigendum we use the algorithm correction of Carriero et al. (2022) to correct the estimates of CCM2018. Although the correction has some impact on the original results, the changes are small and the key findings of CCM2018 are upheld. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1162/rest_e_01172 Issue No:Vol. 104, No. 3 (2022)