Subjects -> MATHEMATICS (Total: 1119 journals)
    - APPLIED MATHEMATICS (92 journals)
    - GEOMETRY AND TOPOLOGY (23 journals)
    - MATHEMATICS (822 journals)
    - MATHEMATICS (GENERAL) (45 journals)
    - NUMERICAL ANALYSIS (25 journals)

MATHEMATICS (822 journals)            First | 1 2 3 4 5     

Showing 401 - 538 of 538 Journals sorted alphabetically
Journal of Computer Engineering, System and Science (CESS)     Open Access  
Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Analysis     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Cryptology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Difference Equations and Applications     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Differential Equations     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Discrete Algorithms     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Discrete Mathematics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Engineering Mathematics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Evolution Equations     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Experimental Algorithmics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Flood Risk Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Journal of Formalized Reasoning     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Function Spaces     Open Access  
Journal of Functional Analysis     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Geochemical Exploration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Geological Research     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Global Optimization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Global Research in Mathematical Archives     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Group Theory     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Homotopy and Related Structures     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Honai Math     Open Access  
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Hyperbolic Differential Equations     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Indian Council of Philosophical Research     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Industrial Mathematics     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Inequalities and Applications     Open Access  
Journal of Infrared, Millimeter and Terahertz Waves     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Integrable Systems     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of K-Theory     Full-text available via subscription  
Journal of Knot Theory and Its Ramifications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Kufa for Mathematics and Computer     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Liquid Chromatography & Related Technologies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Logical and Algebraic Methods in Programming     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Manufacturing Systems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Journal of mathematical and computational science     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences     Open Access  
Journal of Mathematical Behavior     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematical Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematical Cryptology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Mathematical Extension     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematical Finance     Open Access   (Followers: 9)
Journal of Mathematical Imaging and Vision     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Mathematical Logic     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Mathematical Neuroscience     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Mathematical Sciences     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Mathematical Sociology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematics     Open Access  
Journal of Mathematics and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematics and the Arts     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Mathematics Education at Teachers College     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Mathematics in Industry     Open Access  
Journal of Mathematics Research     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Metallurgy     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Modern Mathematics Frontier     Open Access  
Journal of Multidisciplinary Modeling and Optimization     Open Access  
Journal of Multivariate Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research     Open Access  
Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Optimization : Theory & Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Nonlinear Mathematical Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Nonlinear Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Numerical Cognition     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Numerical Mathematics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Optimization     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Peridynamics and Nonlocal Modeling     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Problem Solving     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Progressive Research in Mathematics     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Pseudo-Differential Operators and Applications     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Pure and Applied Algebra     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Journal of Quantitative Linguistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Scientific Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Journal of Scientific Research     Open Access  
Journal of Symbolic Computation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society     Full-text available via subscription  
Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society     Open Access  
Journal of the European Mathematical Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the Indian Mathematical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the Institute of Mathematics of Jussieu     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of the London Mathematical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of the Nigerian Mathematical Society     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Physics     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Topology and Analysis     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Journal of Turbulence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Journal of Uncertainty Analysis and Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Universal Mathematics     Open Access  
Journal of Urban Regeneration & Renewal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11)
JRAMathEdu : Journal of Research and Advances in Mathematics Education     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
JUMLAHKU : Jurnal Matematika Ilmiah STKIP Muhammadiyah Kuningan     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
JURING (Journal for Research in Mathematics Learning)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Jurnal Ilmiah AdMathEdu     Open Access  
Jurnal Matematika     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Jurnal Matematika Integratif     Open Access  
Jurnal Matematika, Sains, Dan Teknologi     Open Access  
Jurnal Natural     Open Access  
Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Raflesia     Open Access  
Jurnal Penelitian Pembelajaran Matematika Sekolah     Open Access  
Jurnal Penelitian Sains (JPS)     Open Access  
Jurnal Riset Pendidikan Matematika     Open Access  
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika     Open Access  
Jurnal Tadris Matematika     Open Access  
Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Komputer     Open Access  
Kontinu : Jurnal Penelitian Didaktik Matematika     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Kreano, Jurnal Matematika Kreatif-Inovatif     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Le Matematiche     Open Access  
Learning and Teaching Mathematics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Lettera Matematica     Hybrid Journal  
Lietuvos Matematikos Rinkinys     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Limits : Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Linear Algebra and its Applications     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23)
Linear and Multilinear Algebra     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Lithuanian Mathematical Journal     Hybrid Journal  
LMS Journal of Computation and Mathematics     Free  
Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics     Open Access  
Logic and Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Logic Journal of the IGPL     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Logica Universalis     Hybrid Journal  
manuscripta mathematica     Hybrid Journal  
MaPan : Jurnal Matematika dan Pembelajaran     Open Access  
Marine Genomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Matemáticas, Educación y Sociedad     Open Access  
Matematicheskie Zametki     Full-text available via subscription  
Matematychni Studii     Open Access  
Mathematica Eterna     Open Access  
Mathematica Scandinavica     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mathematica Slovaca     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical and Computational Forestry & Natural-Resource Sciences     Free  
Mathematical Communications     Open Access  
Mathematical Computation     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Geosciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mathematical Journal of Interdisciplinary Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Mathematical Methods of Statistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Mathematical Modelling and Analysis     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Mathematical Models in Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Notes     Hybrid Journal  
Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Mathematical Programming Computation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mathematical Sciences     Open Access  
Mathematical Social Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Theory and Modeling     Open Access   (Followers: 13)
Mathematical Thinking and Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Mathematics and Statistics     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Mathematics Education Forum Chitwan     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Mathematics Education Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Mathematics Education Research Journal     Partially Free   (Followers: 20)
Mathematics in Science and Engineering     Full-text available via subscription  
Mathematics of Control, Signals, and Systems (MCSS)     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mathematics of Quantum and Nano Technologies     Open Access  
Mathématiques et sciences humaines     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Mathematische Annalen     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematische Nachrichten     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematische Semesterberichte     Hybrid Journal  
Mathematische Zeitschrift     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
MathLAB Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
MATICS     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Matrix Science Mathematic     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Measurement Science Review     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics     Hybrid Journal  
Memetic Computing     Hybrid Journal  
Mendel : Soft Computing Journal     Open Access  
Metaheuristics     Hybrid Journal  
Metals and Materials International     Hybrid Journal  
Metascience     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Metrology and Instruments / Метрологія та прилади     Open Access  
Milan Journal of Mathematics     Hybrid Journal  
Mitteilungen der DMV     Hybrid Journal  
MLQ- Mathematical Logic Quarterly     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
MONA : Matematik- og Naturfagsdidaktik     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Monatshefte fur Mathematik     Hybrid Journal  
Moroccan Journal of Pure and Applied Analysis     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Moscow University Mathematics Bulletin     Hybrid Journal  
MSOR Connections     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Multiscale Modeling and Simulation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
MUST : Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Nagoya Mathematical Journal     Hybrid Journal  
Nano Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Nanotechnologies in Russia     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Natural Resource Modeling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
New Mathematics and Natural Computation     Hybrid Journal  
Nonlinear Analysis : Modelling and Control     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Nonlinear Analysis : Theory, Methods & Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Nonlinear Analysis: Hybrid Systems     Hybrid Journal  
Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Nonlinear Differential Equations and Applications NoDEA     Hybrid Journal  
Nonlinear Engineering     Open Access  
Nonlinear Oscillations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
North Carolina Journal of Mathematics and Statistics     Open Access  
North-Holland Mathematical Library     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
North-Holland Mathematics Studies     Full-text available via subscription  

  First | 1 2 3 4 5     

Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis
Number of Followers: 0  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 2509-8810 - ISSN (Online) 2509-8829
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2656 journals]
  • What has Changed After the Great Recession on the European Cyclical
    • Abstract: This article analyses the business cycle dynamics in the European Union (EU28) during recent decades. Following Camacho et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 30:1687–1706, 2006), we extend the analysis of European cycles to a broader range of countries, including new entrants. In addition, we update their sample by including the Great Recession data with the aim of exploring whether the financial crisis led to changes in cyclical features across these countries. Our results indicate that the Great Recession has undermined European cyclical linkages. Notably, we succeeded in detecting that the European economies do not follow more closed dynamics, despite the fact that the countries are showing more similar cyclical characteristics.
      PubDate: 2019-07-02
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-019-00038-7
  • The Determinants of Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes in High and Low
           Oil-Producing Countries
    • Abstract: This research studies the theoretical determinants of the exchange rate regime choice in oil-producing countries and investigates whether these choice determinants differ if oil-producing countries classified as high (HOP) and low (LOP) oil-producing countries. To gain insight into these issues, governance indicators are introduced in addition to the main theoretical determinants to determine whether these variables play significant roles in regime decisions. An ordinal probit model was utilized to examine panel data from 38 oil-producing countries from 1996 to 2015. The results support the research hypothesis that the determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime differ between HOP and LOP countries. This difference was evident when governance indicators were included in the model in the de jure classifications for HOP and LOP countries. The main policy implication is that enhanced governance indicators provide support for a fixed exchange rate regime in oil-producing countries.
      PubDate: 2019-05-09
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-019-00037-8
  • Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial
           Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data
    • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the manufacturing confidence indicator (CI) and the industrial production index (IPI) as well as to address the effects of the “Great Recession” on this relation. Some stylized facts about CI are firstly presented and the stability of the relationship in the framework of a linear model is subsequently explored. In addition, the findings are tested to be robust with respect to a “sample selection” effect in survey data and also to the hypothesis that they may suggest a change in the long-term trends in the industrial activity. The empirical evidence shows that: (1) the change in the relationship may be due to some cyclical reasons, rather than structural ones; (2) the performance of CI is not affected by the different permanence of firms in the panel; (3) agents are likely to adjust their production plans during the financial crisis, considering a new lower benchmark for their industrial activity in the long term. In particular, as the capacity utilization that managers consider as “ideal/sufficient” is proven to be changed over time, this finding may be consistent with the presence of non-linearities in the relation between CI and IPI.
      PubDate: 2019-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-00033-4
  • Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary
    • Abstract: The paper employs survey data on quantitative inflation perceptions to investigate the formation of consumers’ opinions about current price developments. Firstly, we compare Polish consumers’ estimates of price changes with the consumer price index (CPI) and find that consumers react more quickly to inflation increases than decreases, and that they ignore small moves in inflation. Moreover, the previously stable relation between inflation perception and the CPI inflation was distorted during the deflationary period, leading to a smaller perception bias. Secondly, we relax the assumption that consumers perceive price changes in the CPI terms and show that consumers over-weight clothing and footwear prices and under-weight transport prices relative to the expenditure shares of these items. Prices of food and beverages, as well as prices related to housing, water, gas, electricity, etc. have similar impact on inflation perception as on the CPI inflation. Thirdly, selective attention of consumers to price changes and asymmetric reaction to increases and falls in prices, captured by alternative price aggregates, do not explain inflation perception during deflation.
      PubDate: 2019-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-019-00036-9
  • Measuring Brazilian Economic Uncertainty
    • Abstract: We propose a measure of economic uncertainty, the Brazilian Economic Uncertainty Indicator, based on the news as well as business forecasts. The index expands the variety of newspapers handled by Baker et al. (Q J Econ 131(4):1593–1636, 2016) for Brazil. Our indicator captures Brazilian recent events such as the corruption scandals, the fiscal and economic crisis, the 2016 impeachment, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2002 presidential elections as moments of high uncertainty. An econometric study using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach was carried out and revealed that uncertainty shocks cause an economic downturn in subsequent periods, as emphasized in the relevant literature.
      PubDate: 2019-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-00034-3
  • CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions
    • Abstract: Seasonality in economic time series can ‘obscure’ movements of other components in a series that are operationally more important for economic and econometric analyses. In practice, one often prefers to work with seasonally adjusted data to assess the current state of the economy and its future course. This paper presents a seasonal adjustment program called CAMPLET, an acronym of its tuning parameters, which consists of a simple adaptive procedure to extract the seasonal and the non-seasonal component from an observed series. Once this process is carried out there will be no need to revise these components at a later stage when new observations become available. The paper describes the main features of CAMPLET. We evaluate the outcomes of CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS in a controlled simulation framework using a variety of data generating processes and illustrate CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS with three time series: U.S. non-farm payroll employment, operational income of Ahold and real GDP in the Netherlands.
      PubDate: 2019-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0031-3
  • Structural Change and Business Cycles in Japan: Revisiting the Stylized
    • Abstract: The Japanese economy has experienced massive structural changes since the end of the 1990s, including a decline in the working-age population, a decade of deflation, an increase in the number of non-regular workers, which has almost doubled since the early 1990s, contributing to a large reduction in wage costs, and rapid advances in globalization. What are the implications of such changes for Japan’s business cycle dynamics' This study analyzes the stylized facts of Japanese business cycles under structural change. The results, based on traditional frequency domain analysis using more than 60 quarterly macroeconomic time series, provide robust findings. Among the most interesting ones is that scheduled hours worked play an increasingly important role as a buffer for labor input, suggesting that Japanese firms tend to adjust their labor input through hours worked, owing, in part, to the increasing number of non-regular workers, which allows firms to adjust labor input in a relatively flexible manner while keeping the number of employees unchanged. The increased role of hours worked is confirmed by an analysis based on a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model taking the time-varying nature of the underlying structure of the economy into account. Meanwhile, in other areas such as private consumption and investment, wages, deflators and prices, and financial market indicators, the basic mechanism of business cycles appears to have remained largely unchanged, as reflected in the links between cyclical fluctuations in these series and cyclical fluctuations in output, implying that structural change may not necessarily affect the cyclical regularities in all macroeconomic time series.
      PubDate: 2018-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-00035-2
  • Do Global Crude Oil Markets Behave as One Great Pool' A Cyclical
    • Abstract: In energy economics literature, the controversial assertion of whether crude oil markets are regionalized (Weiner in Energy J 12:95–107, 1991) or behave as one unified entity (Adelman in Energy J 5(3):1–9, 1984) is still an unsettled debate. While the proponents of globalization hypothesis trust that the crude oil markets behave as one big pool, the advocates of regionalization believe that they are segmented. To settle this debate, we tested the globalization–regionalization hypothesis by estimating the wavelet coherence, multiple correlation, cross-correlation, and club convergence at different time horizons. The results suggest that the crude oil markets remain synced over longer time horizons, thereby reaffirming the globalization argument. However, at shorter time horizons, they behave rather independently and are hence mostly regionalized.
      PubDate: 2018-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0028-y
  • Which Indicators Matter' Analyzing the Swiss Business Cycle Using a
           Large-Scale Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model
    • Abstract: For policy institutions such as central banks, it is important to have a timely and accurate measure of past and current economic activity and the business cycle situation. The most prominent example for such a measure is gross domestic product (GDP). However, GDP is only released at a quarterly frequency and with a substantial delay. Furthermore, it captures elements that are not directly linked to the business cycle and the underlying momentum of the economy. In this paper, I construct a new business cycle index for the Swiss economy, which uses state-of-the-art methods, is available at a monthly frequency and can be calculated in real-time, even when some indicators are not yet available for the most recent periods. The index is based on a large and broad set of monthly and quarterly indicators. As I show, for the case of Switzerland, it is important to base a business cycle index on a broad set of indicators instead of only a small subset. This result confirms the findings of a previous study on tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland and is in contrast with the results for other countries.
      PubDate: 2018-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0030-4
  • Price-Setting Behavior in Brazil: Survey Evidence
    • Abstract: Price surveys became popular after the seminal work of Blinder (Am Econ Rev 81(2):89–100, 1991) exploring US firms’ price-setting practices, which filled some blanks left by the simple observation of prices charged by firms. The present paper reports the findings from a survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil with local firms and discusses some policy implications. The sample consisted of 7002 firms and three economic sectors: manufacturing, services and commerce. Data suggest important features about price-setting behavior in Brazil: the cost of reviewing prices is low, but there is significant nominal rigidity—firms report to change prices approximately 3.6 times per year; state-dependent rules seem to be more frequent than time-dependent behavior; markup pricing appears to be the dominant strategy; and the two most important factors driving price changes in Brazil are the cost of intermediate goods and the inflation rate .
      PubDate: 2018-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0029-x
  • A PMI-Based Real GDP Tracker for the Euro Area
    • Abstract: Real-time evidence for the euro area shows that a tracker for real GDP growth using only the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) composite output is of similar accuracy for the final GDP release as the first GDP release. No signs of instability—except during the 2008/09 crisis—in this tracking performance are found. This is surprising given the small size of the underlying PMI panel. From a closer look at what is driving this outstanding track record, seven conclusions emerge: (i) the level of and change in the PMI composite output explain one-third of the GDP revisions; (ii) later available information is more accurate; (iii) services are key; (iv) firm size breakdown is valuable; (v) export status breakdown creates only noise; (vi) aggregated euro area PMI track record is not consistently related to a particular country; (vii) take firm defaults into account during very bad times. These findings imply that PMI surveys are not only valuable for analysts and policymakers as a timely and reliable GDP tracker, but also for statisticians to potentially improve the accuracy of the first preliminary flash estimate of euro area real GDP.
      PubDate: 2018-09-21
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0032-2
  • The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Daily Prices
    • Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on the US daily online price index by Cavallo and Rigobon (J Econ Perspect 30(2):151–78, 2016) within a VAR framework. We find evidence that shocks increasing uncertainty dampen prices significantly. This result is robust to various changes to the baseline model and rejects the Upward Pricing Bias that is often found in the Sticky-Price DSGE literature.
      PubDate: 2018-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0024-2
  • Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments
    • Abstract: This study examines the impact of outlier-adjusted data on business cycle inferences using coincident indicators of the composite index (CI) in Japan. To estimate the CI and business cycles, this study proposes a Markov switching dynamic factor model incorporating Student’s t-distribution in both the idiosyncratic noise and the factor equation. Furthermore, the model includes a stochastic volatility process to identify whether a large shock is associated with a business cycle. From the empirical analysis, both the factor and the idiosyncratic component have fat-tail error distributions, and the estimated CI and recession probabilities are close to those published by the Economic and Social Research Institute. Compared with the estimated CI using the adjusted data set, the outlier adjustment reduces the depth of the recession. Moreover, the results of the shock decomposition show that the financial crisis in mid-2008 was caused by increase of clustering shocks and large unexpected shocks. In contrast, the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 was derived from idiosyncratic noise and did not cause a recession. When analyzing whether to use a sample that includes outliers associated with the business cycle, it is not desirable to use the outlier-adjusted data set.
      PubDate: 2018-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0027-z
  • Would DSGE Models Have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria'
    • Abstract: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria’s Great Recession in 2009. For this purpose, eight DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models; closed and open economy models; one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO’s expert forecasts performed comparable or better than most DSGE models in the crisis.
      PubDate: 2018-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0025-1
  • Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact
           of Qualitative Surveys
    • Abstract: This paper analyses the contribution of survey data, in particular various sentiment indicators, to nowcasts of quarterly euro area GDP. It uses a genuine real-time dataset that is constructed from original press releases in order to transform the actual dataflow into an interpretable flow of news. The latter is defined as the difference between the released values and the prediction of a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model. Our purpose is twofold. First, we aim to quantify the specific value added for nowcasting GDP from a set of heterogeneous data releases including not only sentiment indicators constructed by Eurostat, Markit, the National Bank of Belgium, IFO, ZEW, GfK or Sentix, but also hard data regarding industrial production or retail sales in the aggregate euro area and individually in some of the largest euro area countries. Second, our quantitative analysis is used to draw up an overall ranking of the indicators, on the basis of their average contribution to updates of the nowcast. Among the survey indicators, we find the strongest impact for the Markit Manufacturing PMI and the Business Climate Indicator in the euro area, and the IFO Business Climate and IFO Expectations in Germany. The widely monitored consumer confidence indicators, on the other hand, typically do not lead to significant revisions of the nowcast. In addition, even if euro area industrial production is a relevant predictor, hard data generally contribute less to the nowcasts: they may be more closely correlated with GDP but their relatively late availability implies that they can to a large extent be anticipated by nowcasting on the basis of survey data and, hence, their ‘news’ component is smaller. Finally, we also show that, in line with the previous literature, the NBB’s own business confidence indicator appears to be useful for predicting euro area GDP. The prevalence of survey data remains also under a counterfactual scenario in which hard data are released without any delay. This finding confirms that, in addition to being available in a more timely manner, survey data also contain relevant information that does not seem to be captured by hard data.
      PubDate: 2018-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0022-9
  • A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the
           Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA
    • Abstract: It is well known among practitioners that the seasonal adjustment applied to economic time series involves several decisions to be made by the econometrician. As such, it would always be desirable to have an informed opinion on the risks taken by each of those decisions. In this paper, I assess which disaggregation strategy delivers the best results for the case of the Chilean 1986–2009 GDP quarterly dataset (base year: 2003). This is done by performing an aggregate-by-disaggregate analysis under different schemes, as the fixed base year dataset allows this fair comparison. The analysis is based on seasonal adjustment diagnostics contained in the X-12-ARIMA program plus some statistical tests for robustness. This exercise is relevant for conjunctural economic assessment, as it concerns signal extraction from seasonal, noisy series, direction of change detection, and econometric applications based on reliable and accurate unobserved variables. The results show that it is preferable, in terms of stability, to use the first block of supply-side disaggregation, while demand-side disaggregation tends to be less reliable. This result carries important implications for policymakers aiming to evaluate its short-term effectiveness in both households and firms.
      PubDate: 2018-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0023-3
  • Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using
           Sensitivity Analysis
    • Abstract: Dynamic factor models based on Kalman Filter techniques are frequently used to nowcast GDP. This study deals with the selection of indicators for this practice. We propose a two-tiered mechanism which is shown in a case study to produce more accurate nowcasts than a benchmark stochastic process and a standard model including extreme bounds fragile indicators. Our pseudo-ex-ante forecast nearly measures up to the genuine ex-ante forecast of the European Commission.
      PubDate: 2018-04-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0026-0
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Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
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