Abstract: How to teach lightning activities to spark students' curiosity' Ildikó Takátsné Lucz and Péter Tasnádi Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 137–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-137-2022, 2022 Nowadays, thunderstorms and lightning strikes have also come to the forefront of public interest as they cause significant damage, injuries, and forest fires. Due to the lack of knowledge in the public consciousness, many myths have developed around them. Our research aims to determine what can be taught in high schools about lightning strikes, the reduction of their damages, and lightning protection. We created some teaching resources and would like to share our teaching experiences. PubDate: Wed, 26 Oct 2022 11:49:24 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-137-2022 2022
Abstract: Exploring stratification effects in stable Ekman boundary layers using a stochastic one-dimensional turbulence model Marten Klein and Heiko Schmidt Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 117–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-117-2022, 2022 We study the flow in the lower atmosphere in response to a sudden surface cooling. Our numerical approach aims to resolve all relevant scales of the flow but only along a vertical column. Complex turbulent motions are modeled by simple random mappings. We show that the numerical model accurately captures some relevant features of near-surface turbulent winds and temperature fluctuations. The model offers new opportunities for atmospheric chemistry and polar boundary layer application cases. PubDate: Tue, 25 Oct 2022 11:49:24 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-117-2022 2022
Abstract: Downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America Jorge Tamayo, Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino, Alfonso Hernanz, and Sara Covaleda Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 105–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-105-2022, 2022 There has been developed for Central America downscaled climate change scenarios using the same methodology, that allows a joint analysis for the whole region. The high number of simulations improves the situation prior to the start of the action, where each country had a limited number of projections that differed in terms of background information, methodology and resolution. A web based viewer allows consultations and download on 37 different climatic variables and derived indices. PubDate: Mon, 10 Oct 2022 21:07:26 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-105-2022 2022
Abstract: Requirements for the use of impact-based forecasts and warnings by road maintenance services in Germany Jasmina Schmidt, Nikola Tietze, Lars Gerhold, and Thomas Kox Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 97–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-97-2022, 2022 The interdisciplinary research project WEXICOM funded by the German weather service (DWD) conducted focus group discussions and semi-structured expert interviews with members of road maintenance services in Germany. This paper focuses on the needs and demands practitioners of road maintenance services have in regard to a prospective introduction of impact-based forecasts and warnings and how weather forecasts are used at the moment. PubDate: Fri, 02 Sep 2022 11:32:36 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-97-2022 2022
Abstract: Condensation–mass flux connection in warm convective clouds: theory and implications for cloud supersaturation Yefim L. Kogan Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 91–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-91-2022, 2022 The energy exchanged during condensation/evaporation processes is an important driving force of tropical cumulus convection. We found theoretically, and confirmed in computer simulations, that the rate of condensation/evaporation can be expressed as a linear function of the cloud vertical velocity. This finding suggests a new approach to calculate cloud energy transformations in numerical weather prediction models. PubDate: Mon, 22 Aug 2022 11:15:21 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-91-2022 2022
Abstract: Microclimatic field measurements to support microclimatological modelling with ENVI-met for an urban study area in Cologne Nils Eingrüber, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 81–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-81-2022, 2022 Cities are particularly affected by climate change. Adaptation strategies require data, models and scenario analyses. This paper characterizes the urban microclimate of a 16 ha study area in Cologne based on a network of 33 calibrated and validated sensors. Using statistical analyses, tests and pairwise comparisons, significant microclimatic differences were identified between a park, courtyard, avenue and narrow street. The data will be used in future to validate an ENVI-met microclimate model. PubDate: Thu, 18 Aug 2022 12:51:48 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-81-2022 2022
Abstract: Homogenization of Norwegian monthly precipitation series for the period 1961–2018 Elinah Khasandi Kuya, Herdis Motrøen Gjelten, and Ole Einar Tveito Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 73–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-73-2022, 2022 Climate normals are used as reference for climate monitoring. When calculating precipitation normals for the period 1991–2020 a homogeneous reference dataset is needed. Norway's observation network has changed drastically in the last 30 years and may have introduced non-climatic changes to the time series. Homogeneity analysis of monthly precipitation series for the period 1961–2018 was performed which produced a homogenous dataset that was used to calculate the new climate normals in Norway. PubDate: Mon, 27 Jun 2022 15:55:32 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-73-2022 2022
Abstract: How to develop new digital knowledge transfer products for communicating strategies and new ways towards a carbon-neutral Germany Swantje Preuschmann, Tanja Blome, Knut Görl, Fiona Köhnke, Bettina Steuri, Juliane El Zohbi, Diana Rechid, Martin Schultz, Jianing Sun, and Daniela Jacob Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 51–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-51-2022, 2022 The main aspect of the paper is to obtain transferable principles for the development of digital knowledge transfer products. As such products are still unstandardised, the authors explored challenges and approaches for product developments. The authors report what they see as useful principles for developing digital knowledge transfer products, by describing the experience of developing the Net-Zero-2050 Web-Atlas and the "Bodenkohlenstoff-App". PubDate: Mon, 20 Jun 2022 20:03:31 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-51-2022 2022
Abstract: Synoptic weather patterns conducive to lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia Nicolau Pineda, Juan Carlos Peña, Xavier Soler, Montse Aran, and Núria Pérez-Zanón Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 39–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-39-2022, 2022 Wildfire origins can be related to human activity or to natural phenomena, like lightning. Under favourable environmental conditions, lightning ignitions can develop into a fire. In the present study, we analyse the kind of weather that favours wildfires ignited by lightning in Catalonia. We have found that most fires occur under three types of weather. These results help to improve our understanding of lightning fires and are of great assistance to wildfire management agencies. PubDate: Tue, 07 Jun 2022 15:15:05 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-39-2022 2022
Abstract: Predictability analysis and skillful scale verification of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the COSMO-D2 high resolution ensemble system Michele Salmi, Chiara Marsigli, and Manfred Dorninger Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022, 2022 High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection' This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space. PubDate: Wed, 01 Jun 2022 08:47:49 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-29-2022 2022
Abstract: Using machine learning to produce a cost-effective national building height map of Ireland to categorise local climate zones Eoghan Keany, Geoffrey Bessardon, and Emily Gleeson Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-13-2022, 2022 This work used machine learning to produce the first open source building height map of Ireland. This map is intended to more accurately determine Local Climate Zones for use in the underlying physiography dataset in the HARMONIE AROME numerical weather prediction model. PubDate: Mon, 02 May 2022 14:15:50 +020 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-13-2022 2022
Abstract: “My personal forecast”: the digital transformation of the weather forecast communication using a fuzzy logic recommendation system Dimitrios S. Stamoulis and Panos A. Giannopoulos Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 9–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-9-2022, 2022 Weather forecast refers to objective estimations of parameters such as temperature, wind, humidity etc. However, attempts have been made to communicate the weather forecast into a more subjective approach, such as the "feels like" temperature. We propose an architecture for an artificial intelligence-based system to provide a forecast that could be more meaningful and actionable for each individual person; a forecast much closer to the way that this person "lives" the weather conditions. PubDate: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 13:44:25 +010 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-9-2022 2022
Abstract: From sandcastles to bridges: how can we help forecasters to deal with uncertainties' Anders Doksæter Sivle, Jelmer Jeuring, and Mai-Linn Finstad Svehagen Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-1-2022, 2022 At MET Norway, a small interdisciplinary team – the Sandbox – tries to improve the communication between the meteorologists and their audience. In 2021, we focused on the communication of forecast uncertainty. The Sandbox created, with input from internal and external experts, solutions for applying linguistic and visual tools for forecasters to communicate about uncertainty. In the article, we share our experiences and lessons learned. PubDate: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 13:44:25 +010 DOI: 10.5194/asr-19-1-2022 2022
Abstract: Sensitivity study of the REMO regional climate model to domain size Réka Suga, Otília A. Megyeri-Korotaj, and Gabriella Allaga-Zsebeházi Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 157–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-157-2021, 2021 10-year long sensitivity study on domain size was perform with REMO regional climate model. We can conclude, that the selection of domain size has larger impact on the simulation of precipitation, and in case of the seasonal mean of the precipitation indices, the differences amongst the results obtained on each model domain exceed 10%. In general, the smallest biases were obtained on the largest domain, therefore further long term simulations are being achieved on this. PubDate: 2021-09-22T11:26:45+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-157-2021 2021
Abstract: Addressing up-scaling methodologies for convection-permitting EPSs using statistical and machine learning tools Tiziana Comito, Colm Clancy, Conor Daly, and Alan Hally Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 145–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-145-2021, 2021 Convection-permitting models allow for prediction of rainfall events with increasing levels of detail. However, this increased resolution can create problems such as the so-called double penalty problem when attempting to verify model forecast accuracy. This problem is amplified when trying to maximise the value of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS). Post-processing of the EPS can help to overcome these issues. In this spirit, two new up-scaling algorithms based on Machine PubDate: 2021-09-17T09:38:06+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-145-2021 2021
Abstract: Towards a reproducible snow load map – an example for Austria Harald Schellander, Michael Winkler, and Tobias Hell Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 135–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-135-2021, 2021 Each building has to withstand a certain mass of snow. In the Alps, snow load standards are coarse, and inconsistencies at national borders are common. A new methodology to derive a snow load map for Austria is presented. It consists of modeling and spatially interpolating snow loads with modern extreme value statistics. The new approach is much more accurate than the currently used Austrian snow load map and provides a reproducible base for other countries. PubDate: 2021-08-05T08:04:50+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-135-2021 2021
Abstract: Winter Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts for Finland from ECMWF Otto Hyvärinen, Terhi K. Laurila, Olle Räty, Natalia Korhonen, Andrea Vajda, and Hilppa Gregow Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 127–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, 2021 Wind speed forecasts have many potential users that could benefit from skilful forecasts. We validated weekly mean speed forecasts for Finland using forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We concentrate on winter (November, December and January) forecasts.The forecasts proved to be skilful until the third week, but the longest skilful lead time depends on how the skill is calculated and what is used as the reference. PubDate: 2021-08-04T08:04:50+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-127-2021 2021
Abstract: Evaluation of wind speed estimates in reanalyses for wind energy applications Sebastian Brune, Jan D. Keller, and Sabrina Wahl Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-115-2021, 2021 Correct estimates of wind speed between 60 and 200 m above ground are of great interest for the renewable energy sector. Observed wind speeds are compared to three different reanalyses. ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 outperform MERRA-2 at offshore, flat and hilly sites. Over land, ERA5 models nighttime wind speed better than COSMO-REA6 due to better representation of the low level jet through higher vertical resolution, a more comprehensive data assimilation scheme, and/or the more recent model version. PubDate: 2021-07-30T14:35:48+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-115-2021 2021
Abstract: Climate change projections of maximum temperature in the pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh using statistical downscaling of global climate models M. Bazlur Rashid, Syed Shahadat Hossain, M. Abdul Mannan, Kajsa M. Parding, Hans Olav Hygen, Rasmus E. Benestad, and Abdelkader Mezghani Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 99–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-99-2021, 2021 This study presents estimates of the maximum temperature in Bangladesh for the 21st century for the pre-monsoon season (March–May), the hottest season in Bangladesh. The maximum temperature is important as indicator of the frequency and severity of heatwaves. Several emission scenarios were considered assuming different developments in the emission of greenhouse gases. Results show that there will likely be a heating of at least 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. PubDate: 2021-07-13T13:49:34+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-99-2021 2021
Abstract: Full flowering phenology of apple tree (Malus domestica) in Pūre orchard, Latvia from 1959 to 2019 Gunta Kalvāne, Zane Gribuste, and Andis Kalvāns Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 93–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-93-2021, 2021 The Pūre orchard is one of the biggest and oldest apple orchards in the Baltic. We have digitized the full flowering phenological data of apple trees over the period of 1959 to 2019. Described changes in full-flowering time: apple trees all 17 varieties have begun to flower earlier. We tested three sets of meteorological data in phenological model to develop better-quality phenological predictions. As ongoing and predicted climate change has had and will have a significant impact on agriculture PubDate: 2021-06-17T18:03:22+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-93-2021 2021
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