Abstract: Sensitivity study of the REMO regional climate model to domain size Réka Suga, Otília A. Megyeri-Korotaj, and Gabriella Allaga-Zsebeházi Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 157–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-157-2021, 2021 10-year long sensitivity study on domain size was perform with REMO regional climate model. We can conclude, that the selection of domain size has larger impact on the simulation of precipitation, and in case of the seasonal mean of the precipitation indices, the differences amongst the results obtained on each model domain exceed 10%. In general, the smallest biases were obtained on the largest domain, therefore further long term simulations are being achieved on this. PubDate: 2021-09-22T11:26:45+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-157-2021 2021
Abstract: Addressing up-scaling methodologies for convection-permitting EPSs using statistical and machine learning tools Tiziana Comito, Colm Clancy, Conor Daly, and Alan Hally Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 145–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-145-2021, 2021 Convection-permitting models allow for prediction of rainfall events with increasing levels of detail. However, this increased resolution can create problems such as the so-called double penalty problem when attempting to verify model forecast accuracy. This problem is amplified when trying to maximise the value of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS). Post-processing of the EPS can help to overcome these issues. In this spirit, two new up-scaling algorithms based on Machine PubDate: 2021-09-17T09:38:06+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-145-2021 2021
Abstract: Towards a reproducible snow load map – an example for Austria Harald Schellander, Michael Winkler, and Tobias Hell Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 135–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-135-2021, 2021 Each building has to withstand a certain mass of snow. In the Alps, snow load standards are coarse, and inconsistencies at national borders are common. A new methodology to derive a snow load map for Austria is presented. It consists of modeling and spatially interpolating snow loads with modern extreme value statistics. The new approach is much more accurate than the currently used Austrian snow load map and provides a reproducible base for other countries. PubDate: 2021-08-05T08:04:50+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-135-2021 2021
Abstract: Winter Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts for Finland from ECMWF Otto Hyvärinen, Terhi K. Laurila, Olle Räty, Natalia Korhonen, Andrea Vajda, and Hilppa Gregow Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 127–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, 2021 Wind speed forecasts have many potential users that could benefit from skilful forecasts. We validated weekly mean speed forecasts for Finland using forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We concentrate on winter (November, December and January) forecasts.The forecasts proved to be skilful until the third week, but the longest skilful lead time depends on how the skill is calculated and what is used as the reference. PubDate: 2021-08-04T08:04:50+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-127-2021 2021
Abstract: Evaluation of wind speed estimates in reanalyses for wind energy applications Sebastian Brune, Jan D. Keller, and Sabrina Wahl Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-115-2021, 2021 Correct estimates of wind speed between 60 and 200 m above ground are of great interest for the renewable energy sector. Observed wind speeds are compared to three different reanalyses. ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 outperform MERRA-2 at offshore, flat and hilly sites. Over land, ERA5 models nighttime wind speed better than COSMO-REA6 due to better representation of the low level jet through higher vertical resolution, a more comprehensive data assimilation scheme, and/or the more recent model version. PubDate: 2021-07-30T14:35:48+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-115-2021 2021
Abstract: Climate change projections of maximum temperature in the pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh using statistical downscaling of global climate models M. Bazlur Rashid, Syed Shahadat Hossain, M. Abdul Mannan, Kajsa M. Parding, Hans Olav Hygen, Rasmus E. Benestad, and Abdelkader Mezghani Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 99–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-99-2021, 2021 This study presents estimates of the maximum temperature in Bangladesh for the 21st century for the pre-monsoon season (March–May), the hottest season in Bangladesh. The maximum temperature is important as indicator of the frequency and severity of heatwaves. Several emission scenarios were considered assuming different developments in the emission of greenhouse gases. Results show that there will likely be a heating of at least 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. PubDate: 2021-07-13T13:49:34+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-99-2021 2021
Abstract: Full flowering phenology of apple tree (Malus domestica) in Pūre orchard, Latvia from 1959 to 2019 Gunta Kalvāne, Zane Gribuste, and Andis Kalvāns Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 93–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-93-2021, 2021 The Pūre orchard is one of the biggest and oldest apple orchards in the Baltic. We have digitized the full flowering phenological data of apple trees over the period of 1959 to 2019. Described changes in full-flowering time: apple trees all 17 varieties have begun to flower earlier. We tested three sets of meteorological data in phenological model to develop better-quality phenological predictions. As ongoing and predicted climate change has had and will have a significant impact on agriculture PubDate: 2021-06-17T18:03:22+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-93-2021 2021
Abstract: LES study of precipitation/condensation dependance on cumulus clouds dynamics Yefim L. Kogan Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 89–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-89-2021, 2021 Based on the LES model data, a very strong correlation was found not only between the condensation, but also evaporation rate and upward mass flux. While good correlation between the upward mass flux and condensation is not surprising, the very high correlation coefficient (R = 0.99), as well as the role of the upward mass flux in determining the evaporation rate, is remarkable and may be important for future latent heat parameterization development. PubDate: 2021-05-19T11:55:26+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-89-2021 2021
Abstract: Using machine learning to produce a very high resolution land-cover map for Ireland Eoin Walsh, Geoffrey Bessardon, Emily Gleeson, and Priit Ulmas Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 65–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-65-2021, 2021 In this work, machine learning techniques, satellite data and land-cover data were used to produce a land-cover map for Ireland that shows greater accuracy and resolution than an altered version of the standard land-cover map (ECOCLIMAP-SG) used for numerical weather prediction. This method offers a way to universally improve meteorological land-cover maps across jurisdictions, while also offering a method of updating the map regularly to account for seasonal changes in surface land-covers. PubDate: 2021-05-11T18:05:27+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-65-2021 2021
Abstract: Visualization of radar-observed rainfall for hydrological risk assessment Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, and Remco van de Beek Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 59–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-59-2021, 2021 We have developed a tool to visualize rainfall observations, based on a combination of meteorological stations and weather radars, over Sweden in near real-time. By accumulating the rainfall in time (1–12 h) and space (hydrological basins), the tool is designed mainly for hydrological applications, e.g. to support flood forecasters and to facilitate post-event analyses. Despite evident uncertainties, different users have confirmed an added value of the tool in case studies. PubDate: 2021-05-10T06:21:22+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-59-2021 2021
Abstract: Urban heat islands in the Arctic cities: an updated compilation of in situ and remote-sensing estimations Igor Esau, Victoria Miles, Andrey Soromotin, Oleg Sizov, Mikhail Varentsov, and Pavel Konstantinov Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 51–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-51-2021, 2021 Persistent warm urban temperature anomalies – urban heat islands – significantly enhance already amplified climate warming in the Arctic. This study presents the surface urban heat islands in all circum-Arctic settlements with more than 3000 inhabitants. It reveals strong and persistent urban temperature anomalies during both summer and winter seasons that vary in different cities from 0.5 °C to more than 6.0 °C. PubDate: 2021-05-03T10:37:07+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-51-2021 2021
Abstract: How to visualize the Urban Heat Island in Gridded Datasets' Arianna Valmassoi and Jan D. Keller Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 41–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-41-2021, 2021 The Urban Heat Island (UHI) describes the increase of near surface temperatures within an urban area compared to its rural surrounding. While the concept of the UHI is in itself quite simple, it is more complex to apply it to gridded datasets. The main complication lies in the rural baseline definition. Therefore, we propose three approaches to calculate the spatial UHI representation for gridded datasets from (i) a single point baseline, (ii) an area averaged baseline, and (iii) a nearest neighbor-based baseline field. Based on these approaches, seven methods are tested as an example for a case study utilizing model simulations for three metropolitan areas in Central and Western Europe (Berlin, Paris and Rhine-Ruhr Metropolitan Area). The results show that all methods perform reasonable in absence of complex terrain, biases and large scale temperature gradients. However, with at least one of these features present, the UHI visualization is less prominent or nonexistent, except for the nearest-neighbor approach which consistently shows reasonable spatial characteristics of the UHI across all scenarios. PubDate: 2021-04-22T10:37:07+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-41-2021 2021
Abstract: Raindrop fall velocity in turbulent flow: an observational study Merhala Thurai, Viswanathan Bringi, Patrick Gatlin, and Mathew Wingo Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 33–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-33-2021, 2021 Fall velocities of rain drops are reported for 2–3 mm drop diameters for several different turbulent intensities. The fall velocities are measured by 2D video disdrometers and the turbulence intensities by 100 Hz sonic anemometer. The findings are, (i) the mean fall speed decreases with increasing turbulent intensity, and (ii) the standard deviation increases with increase in the rms of the air velocity fluctuations. PubDate: 2021-04-21T10:37:07+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-33-2021 2021
Abstract: TV meteorologists at MET Norway as climate communicators Anders Doksæter Sivle, Amalie Kvame Holm, Jelmer Jeuring, Hans Olav Hygen, and Mai-Linn Finstad Svehagen Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 27–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-27-2021, 2021 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute initiated the project TV meteorologists as climate communicators in 2019. Our goal was to make it easier for people to understand climate change and how it relates to local weather. The TV meteorologists have received extended training in climate issues, and in the last two years they have had 40 TV-appearances focusing on different local climate issues on the NRK Evening news. The majority of the stories have also been shared through social media. PubDate: 2021-04-09T10:37:07+02:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-27-2021 2021
Abstract: Climate risk services for cereal farming Anne Gobin, Nicoletta Addimando, Christoph Ramshorn, and Karl Gutbrod Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 21–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-21-2021, 2021 Agricultural production is largely determined by weather conditions during the crop growing season. Weather events such as frosts, droughts or heat stress during crop growth and development helps explain yield variability of common arable crops. We developed a methodology and visualisation tool for risk assessment, and tested the workflow for drought and frost risk. The methodology can be extended to other extreme weather events and their impacts on crop growth in different regions of the world. PubDate: 2021-03-15T10:37:07+01:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-21-2021 2021
Abstract: Multi-sensor analysis of monthly gridded snow precipitation on alpine glaciers Rebecca Gugerli, Matteo Guidicelli, Marco Gabella, Matthias Huss, and Nadine Salzmann Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 7–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-7-2021, 2021 To obtain reliable snowfall estimates in high mountain remains a challenge. This study uses daily snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates by a cosmic ray sensor on two Swiss glaciers to assess three readily-available high-quality precipitation products. We find a large bias between in situ SWE and snowfall, which differs among the precipitation products, the two sites, the winter seasons and in situ meteorological conditions. All products have great potential for various applications in the Alps. PubDate: 2021-02-24T11:12:40+01:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-7-2021 2021
Abstract: How weather influenced the mood of people during the COVID-19 lockdown in Catalonia: a review of Twitter posts Tomàs Molina, Alex Sancliment, and Jofre Janué Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-1-2021, 2021 This article has been possible because of the cooperation between Television of Catalonia and the Applied Physics Department of the University of Barcelona, via the work of an intern student who was working from home because of the lockdown during the COVID19 pandemic.The mood of people we have studied in this article was similar to the one experimented by researchers. Weeks and months at home, with the only outside contact through the window, and social media. PubDate: 2021-01-29T09:47:24+01:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-1-2021 2021
Abstract: Development of seasonal climate outlooks for agriculture in Finland Andrea Vajda and Otto Hyvärinen Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 269–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020, 2020 We studied the applicability of seasonal forecast outputs in agriculture in Finland. The quality of seasonal forecasts output was assessed, and six tailored seasonal forecast indices were co-designed, developed in close collaboration with the Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners and piloted with over 200 farmers. Although the tested seasonal forecast indices had a limited skill and need further improvements, the farmers found the climate outlooks useful. PubDate: 2020-11-18T07:39:38+01:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-269-2020 2020
Abstract: HARMONIE-AROME single-column tools and experiments Emily Gleeson, Stephen Outten, Bjørg Jenny Kokkvoll Engdahl, Eoin Whelan, Ulf Andrae, and Laura Rontu Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, 2020 The single-column version of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, called MUSC, was developed by Météo-France in the 2000s and has a growing user-base. Tools to derive the required input, to run experiments and to handle outputs have been developed within the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM system. We also illustrate the usefulness of MUSC for testing and developing physical parametrizations related to cloud microphysics and radiative transfer. PubDate: 2020-11-16T07:39:38+01:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-255-2020 2020
Abstract: Assessing groundwater irrigation sustainability in the Euro-Mediterranean region with an integrated agro-hydrologic model Emiliano Gelati, Zuzanna Zajac, Andrej Ceglar, Simona Bassu, Bernard Bisselink, Marko Adamovic, Jeroen Bernhard, Anna Malagó, Marco Pastori, Fayçal Bouraoui, and Ad de Roo Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 227–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-227-2020, 2020 In this modelling study, we conclude that groundwater is used unsustainably for irrigation in several areas of the Euro-Mediterranean region. In the southern Iberian Peninsula, we estimate the potential effects of reducing irrigation groundwater abstractions to sustainable amounts to prevent long-term decline of groundwater storage. These restrictions may cause crop production losses but halt groundwater depletion and increase river flow during dry periods which is beneficial for ecosystems. PubDate: 2020-10-31T08:06:38+01:00 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-227-2020 2020
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