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- Border Carbon Adjustments and Leakage in the Presence of Public Pollution
Abatement Activities-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper sheds light on the unidentified effects of unilateral environmental and trade actions within an international trade framework with two large open economies, transboundary pollution, and Public Pollution Abatement (PPA) activities. When private and public abatement coexists in the exporting country, stricter environmental policy by the importing one magnifies the carbon leakage effect. Pareto efficiency dictates that Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA) should account not only for the difference in carbon taxes between the two countries, but also for the policy’s unintended consequences on PPA. More importantly, we argue that a conditional reduction of BCA, subject to stricter environmental policy by the country that exports the polluting good, decreases global pollution and increases countries’ welfare. Such reform strategy generates strong incentives for countries with laxer environmental policy to adopt a stricter one. PubDate: 2024-08-15
- Correction to: International Cooperation and Kantian Moral Behaviour:
Complements or Substitutes'-
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PubDate: 2024-08-13
- Can the Superposition of Green Policies Improve the Investment Efficiency
of High-Polluting Firms Even More'-
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Abstract: Abstract We explore the effect of overlapping green policies on investment efficiency of listed firms in China, by regarding the dual policies of green credit and low-carbon city pilot in 2012 as a quasi-natural experiment. The results show that the superposition of green policies can more significantly improve investment efficiency of high-polluting firms than the green policy alone. In addition to limiting credit availability and increasing financial constraints, green policies also influence firms’ ESG ratings, encourage green upgrading and transformation, and increase green investment to promote firm investment efficiency. Further research finds that green policies significantly contribute to investment efficiency improvements for state-owned firms, large-scale firms, firms with higher long-term debt, and capital-intensive firms. Therefore, coordinated green policies provide an opportunity to achieve a win-win situation of “pollution control” and “efficiency improvement”. PubDate: 2024-08-13
- The Effects of Growing Groups and Scarcity on the Use of a Common Pool
Resource – a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment with Lake Victoria Fishers-
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Abstract: Abstract Using a lab-in-the-field experiment with Ugandan fishers, we study if and how the use of a common pool resource changes when the resource is either scarce or abundant and when the number of users increases over time. Both resource scarcity and a growing group require users to be more constrained, that is, more cooperative, in order to maintain the resource. However, the results show that fishers do not curtail their harvesting behavior under increased pressure, leading to rapid overexploitation when scarce resources are used by a growing group. This implies a particular need for sustainable management when scarce resources are exposed to in-migration. PubDate: 2024-08-13
- Prospects for Markets for Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes
under the Paris Agreement-
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Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement (PA) opens for parties to use Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) for implementing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This paper analyzes spot, forward and options market trading of ITMOs up to the end of the first PA trading period (2030), given uncertainty about (1) the fulfillment of parties’ NDC targets, and (2) the existence and functioning of the ITMO markets, as ITMO banking beyond 2030 is not allowed. Closed-form solutions are derived for options trading and its welfare impacts given uniform distributions of parties’ uncertainties about fulfilling their individual commitments. Access to call options for late ITMO purchases leads to larger forward ITMO sales or less current mitigation, help parties stay in NDC compliance in 2030, brings early revenue to low-income parties, and is welfare enhancing for all parties. Access to put options for late ITMO sales is less important, and will not be used when put options are not subsidized and parties are risk neutral. The ITMO markets can be enabled by donor-provided climate finance. Effectively functioning ITMO markets can dramatically reduce parties’ costs of achieving their NDCs, and could increase parties’ ambitions, then also reducing global greenhouse gas emissions under the agreement. PubDate: 2024-08-09
- All Inclusive Climate Policy in a Growing Economy: The Role of Human
Health-
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Abstract: Abstract Standard climate economics considers damages of climate change to utility, total factor productivity, and capital. Highlighting that air pollution and climate change affect human health and labor productivity significantly, we complement this literature by including human health in a theoretical climate economic framework. Our macroeconomic approach incorporates a separate health sector and provides closed-form analytical solutions for the main model variables. Economic growth is endogenously driven by innovations, which depend on labor availability and productivity. These aspects of the labor force are directly linked to human health, which is harmed by burning fossil fuels. We calculate growth in the decentralized equilibrium and derive optimal climate policy. Calibrating the model by taking standard parameter values we show the economic growth rate to be higher for the planner solution compared to the market outcome. For an optimal climate policy, we find that 44% of total resource stock should be extracted when considering damages to capital, but only 1% of the stock should be extracted in an “all inclusive” approach where health damages are included. The health perspective requires optimal environmental policies that are much more stringent than those normally advocated in climate economics, since harm to human health has negative effects on economic growth, which makes the overall impact of climate change very large. PubDate: 2024-08-08
- What Does Air Quality Information Disclosure Deliver and to Whom' Evidence
from the Ambient Air Quality Standard (2012) Program in China-
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Abstract: Abstract Air quality information disclosure has emerged as a popular policy tool to reduce emissions, yet its impact on both environmental and economic performance remains ambiguous. This study employs a comprehensive measure of environmental-economic efficiency, the Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP), to investigate the effect of China’s mandated air quality disclosure program from 2003 to 2016. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that cities subject to disclosure experienced an average decline of 8% in GTFP. To further explore the heterogeneity in the treatment effect, we apply causal forest, a state-of-the-art causal machine learning technique for estimating individual treatment effects. The analysis uncovers substantial variation in the impact of information disclosure across cities, suggesting that the negative average effect may be partially attributed to mistargeting. We identify financial constraints, industrial composition, and urban scale as key moderators of the disclosure program’s effectiveness. Moreover, our findings indicate that disclosing negative information, such as severe pollution levels or low environmental rankings, has a more pronounced impact compared to neutral content. By identifying key moderators and differential impacts of disclosure content, this study provides a foundation for targeted policy design to enhance the effectiveness of environmental information regulations. PubDate: 2024-08-08
- The Impact of Environmental Measures on Trade and Innovation: Evidence
from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB)-
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Abstract: Abstract This study explores the impact of environmental policies on trade and innovation, utilizing an expanded dataset sourced from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB). It makes two contributions to the literature: First, employing advanced text analysis algorithms, we extracted valuable information from the EDB, enhancing its usefulness for future research and policy analysis. Second, we leverage this augmented dataset to evaluate the impact of environmental measures on trade and green innovation. Our empirical findings suggest that environmental policies not only elevate demand for environmental goods and stimulate imports but also bolster competitiveness and amplify exports of environmental goods. Additionally, these policies appear to stimulate green innovation. PubDate: 2024-08-08
- Extended Producer Responsibility and Trade Flows in Waste: The Case of
Batteries-
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Abstract: Abstract In the debate on international waste trade, the focus on resource efficiency and recycling has gradually begun to accompany the focus on negative environmental externalities. In this context, we examine the impact of extended producer responsibility (EPR) on the export of waste batteries (WB). EPR is considered as a key policy for the “marketization of waste”. WB are a hazardous waste that also contain a high concentration of critical raw materials. As such, they are of strategic importance for the recovery of critical resources, while at the same time requiring proper environmental management. Therefore, it is crucial to understand where WB are treated and how this is affected by related policies. Our results, based on difference-in-difference models in a gravity framework, show a consistent increase in WB exports after EPR implementation compared to the trend for other wastes. This result is likely to be an indirect consequence of the ability of EPR to support growth in waste collection rates, more accurate tracking of transboundary waste flows, and specialization of national waste management systems. In particular, WB exports appear to be directed to countries with more advanced waste management systems, more stringent environmental regulations, and limited endowments of the mineral resources typically contained in batteries. PubDate: 2024-08-07
- The Rise of Transnational Financial Crimes and Tropical Deforestation
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Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the impact of trade-related illicit financial flows (IFFs) on tropical deforestation. To adjust for pre-exposure differences in deforestation rates between countries exposed to IFFs and their counterfactuals, this study adopts propensity score matching and doubly robust weighted regression estimators. The results suggest substantial increases in forest loss in countries exposed to large IFFs. Specifically, the treated countries exposed to IFFs experience an annual increase in forest loss of approximately 10,344.167 hectares compared to their counterfactual controls. This finding is largely driven by macro-financial instability resulting from real currency depreciation and tax revenue losses due to illicit financial outflows. The results highlight the merit of capital controls and state ownership of assets in mitigating the impact of exposure to IFFs on forest loss. PubDate: 2024-08-07
- Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Licensing in a Polluting Industry
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Abstract: Abstract We consider a firm’s incentive for foreign direct investment (FDI) and international technology licensing in a polluting industry. We explain the rationale and the welfare implications of complementarity between FDI and licensing, i.e., the firm’s strategy of “FDI and licensing” (FL), which is empirically relevant but ignored in the literature. When the environmental tax cannot be committed, the firm adopts the licensing strategy if the pollution intensity is not high, and the licensing strategy may create lower consumer surplus and welfare compared to both FDI and FL. However, if the pollution intensity is high, the firm undertakes FL, which provide higher consumer surplus and welfare compared to both licensing and FDI. When the government can commit to the environmental tax, the firm always prefers FL. The host-country welfare is higher but the consumer surplus and world welfare may be lower under the committed tax policy compared to the non-committed tax policy. These results hold under Cournot competition and Stackelberg competition. We further show that FL can be the equilibrium strategy of the foreign firm if there is fixed-fee licensing instead of a two-part tariff licensing, which is considered in the main analysis. PubDate: 2024-08-06
- Right and Duty: Investment Risk Under Different Renewable Energy Support
Policies-
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Abstract: Abstract Renewable energy projects are subject to risk due to the uncertainty of future electricity prices and the amount of energy produced. Public support usually consists of some form of guarantee, either on the price received per MWh supplied or the return on investment per MW installed. This support reduces the investor’s risk, which is then assumed by the regulator. However, most of these policies do not only grant the investor the right to receive a guaranteed payment but also limit its potential benefits (i.e., impose an obligation). We propose a model with analytical solutions in which, considering the randomness of the market price, as well as that of the energy production, we quantify the risk removed under different types of regulations and assign a value to both the rights and the obligations that each policy entails. Finally, we apply the model to the case of Spain, which has undergone several changes in its green energy support system in recent years. Our results indicate that in the context of low electricity prices, the obligations imposed by most of these policies are negligible compared to the rights received. By contrast, in the context of high electricity prices and increasingly competitive renewable energy sources, the assumed obligations become more notable to the point of the support policy becoming a liability. Nevertheless, a sufficiently risk-averse investor may be incentivized by a policy with negative expected regulatory costs. PubDate: 2024-08-06
- Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food
Prices: Evidence from Local Prices-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper uses time-varying smooth transition autoregressive model to investigate the asymmetric nature of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) —an exogenous climatic factor—with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in sub-Saharan Africa. Curating food price series from more than 1100 markets from 36 SSA countries, the study finds that ENSO (linearly or nonlinearly) affects roughly half of food prices considered, with most nonlinear models exhibiting strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of ENSO impact, I find a geographical and food product divide. Specifically, ENSO appears to be more efficacious on maize prices in Southern, Eastern, and some parts of Central Africa. Conversely, local rice, cassava, millet, and animal products are least affected. The policy implication of this dichotomy is that response to ENSO news should be subregion-specific rather than region-specific, depending on how the subregions absorb the shock. PubDate: 2024-08-05
- Green Innovation and Energy Efficiency: Moderating Effect of Institutional
Quality Based on the Threshold Model-
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Abstract: Abstract Recent studies demonstrated that green innovation and environment-related technologies reduce energy intensity and improve energy efficiency, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, the existing studies employ linear estimation methods to examine the relationship between green innovation and energy intensity and do not consider the indirect implications of institutional quality for the effect of green technology on energy intensity. Institutional quality is found to be an essential driver of innovation, and countries may need to achieve at least a minimum level of institutional quality to promote green innovation and improve their energy intensity. To test this hypothesis, this paper examines the relationship between energy intensity and green innovation using a panel dataset from 72 countries between 1996 and 2017 and a panel threshold model when institutional quality is considered a threshold variable. The findings highlight that green innovation reduces the energy intensity if and only if countries surpass a certain threshold of institutional quality. Therefore, countries need to improve their institutional quality to promote green innovation and benefit from green technologies in improving their energy intensity. PubDate: 2024-08-04
- Tiebout Sorting and Toxic Releases
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Abstract: Abstract Combining detailed county-to-county migration data with Toxics Release Inventory data, and fine-scale \(\hbox{PM}_{2.5}\) concentration levels, we investigate the relationship between internal migration, income of migrant and non-migrant households and county-level differences in environmental quality. We show that households moving to “cleaner” counties are relatively “richer”—a result consistent with a sorting by income in the spirit of Tiebout (1956). An implication of this finding is that internal migration could contribute to the persistence of disparities in pollution exposure at the county-level. PubDate: 2024-08-02
- Tree Cover Perforation and Malaria: Evidence from Colombia
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Abstract: Abstract A growing literature seeks to econometrically identify the link between tree cover change and malaria, two of the most pressing problems facing the Global South. However, we know little about the effect of tree cover fragmentation on malaria transmission, even though correlational evidence suggests that this effect may be important. We use municipality-level panel data from Colombia along with two-way fixed effects models to identify the effect on malaria incidence of changes in two measures of tree cover fragmentation—perforation and edge—as well as of a conventional measure of aggregate tree cover loss. We find that perforation in core areas of tree cover spurs malaria transmission. Evidence for the effects of changes in edge and aggregate loss is weaker. On average, a one-percentage-point increase in contemporaneous perforation leads to a 12.7% increase in malaria cases. This effect is stronger in municipalities with gold production and in those with coca production. These findings provide further evidence that forest conservation has significant benefits for local communities. They can also help stakeholders improve the efficacy of policies to stem malaria transmission. PubDate: 2024-08-01
- Optimal Ecosystem Change in the Presence of Ecosystem-Mediated Human
Health Impacts-
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Abstract: Abstract A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that land use change, and the resulting decline in both the area and quality of natural habitats, contributes to an increased incidence of disease in humans. Despite calls to leverage conservation policy to address the burden of disease linked to ecosystem change, the potential benefits are unknown. Efficiently reducing the burden of infectious disease through land use policies and conservation initiatives is challenging because it requires balancing trade-offs that depend on ecological and socioeconomic factors. To assess some of these trade-offs, we developed a dynamic model of optimal land use when ecosystem change affects the overall incidence of infectious disease. We compared the net benefits and paths of optimal policy in which the increased cost of disease resulting from natural habitat loss is included in the optimization with a base case where it is ignored. We found that ignoring the linkage between habitat degradation and infectious disease incidence in the planner’s problem reduces the net benefits of land management, such as conservation efforts, and results in significantly higher rates of infection and health costs. PubDate: 2024-08-01
- Forest Cover and Dengue in Costa Rica: Panel Data Analysis of the Effects
of Forest Cover Change on Hospital Admissions and Outbreaks-
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Abstract: Abstract Approximately 3.9 billion people are at risk of infection with dengue fever, a group of viruses transmitted by mosquitoes (Halstead in Annu Rev Entomol 53:273–291, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ento.53.103106.0933262008; WHO in WHO Dengue and severe dengue, Geneva, 2018). In 2019, Central America suffered a severe dengue epidemic (Salinas Maldonado in Un brote de dengue pone en alerta a Centroamérica Sociedad EL PAÍS, El País, 2019). Costa Rica witnessed an almost doubling of the number of dengue cases in the first 24 epidemiological weeks of 2019 compared to the same period in the previous year (Ávalos in Costa Rica casi duplica número de enfermos de dengue en lo que va del año, con respecto al 2018, La Nación, 2019). In the Americas, forest cover is thought to diminish anthropogenic habitats for mosquitoes while also increasing the presence of their predators (Vasilakis et al. in Nat Rev Microbiol 9:532–541, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro2595; Weterings et al. in Basic Appl Ecol 15:486–495, 2014a. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.BAAE.2014.07.006). In this study, we estimate the marginal effects of increasing forest cover on dengue prevalence in Costa Rica using econometric models to relate hospital admission records to forest cover maps from 2001 and 2011. We find that increasing the percentage of forest cover significantly decreases both the number of hospital admissions for dengue and the probability of an outbreak. Using the same models, we predict that if forest cover had been increased by three percentage points during 10 years (0.29% per year), 29 dengue hospital admissions per year might have been avoided (around 1.4% of cases in the country, depending on the year). This represents average savings between USD 7230 and 82,207 per year, depending on the severity of the impact on individuals with dengue. Our study demonstrates that forest conservation can serve as a public health investment, enhancing social welfare by mitigating illness and reducing associated healthcare expenditures. Our results must be interpreted with caution, however, as the characteristics of our data prevent us from confirming that the estimated negative effect of forest cover on dengue represents a causal impact. PubDate: 2024-08-01
- The Economic Impacts of Rural Water Supply Infrastructures in Developing
Countries: Empirical Evidence from Senegal-
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Abstract: Abstract The paper addresses the often-neglected economic impacts associated with the supply of hydraulic infrastructure in rural and under-serviced communities in developing countries. We rely on a rich panel dataset including 1319 Senegalese rural households collected in 2016 and 2020, during the deployment of the first phase of the Emergency Program for Community Development (PUDC). By combining propensity score matching (PSM), inverse probability weighting, difference-in-differences, and quantile regression, we find that access to piped water improves employment in the agricultural sector but has no significant impact on household expenditures. After controlling for attrition, through PSM, we find that the employment effect operates through access to a greater quantity of water and a reduction in the time women devote to water fetching chores. Moreover, when bundled with complementary infrastructure interventions such as the construction of rural roads, we find that access to water services generates an even higher impact. The quantile analysis shows that non-poor households seem to benefit more from the provided water supply infrastructure compared to poor households. Finally, when comparing the welfare effect of government-led PUDC water supply with that of community-led initiatives, our findings advocate for the widespread implementation of the former for reasons of cost-effectiveness. PubDate: 2024-08-01
- International Cooperation and Kantian Moral Behaviour: Complements
oSXDzx5`16Z RT231r Substitutes'-
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Abstract: Abstract Faced with a global emissions problem such as climate change, we know that if countries’ emissions decisions are made in an independent and self-interested fashion the outcome can be very far from optimal. One proposed solution is to have countries enter international environmental agreements (IEAs) whereby individual countries’ emissions decisions are taken in the interests of all the participating countries and so reflect a degree of altruism. However, if the decision to co-operate is made in a self-interested fashion the standard non-cooperative model of IEAs yields the pessimistic conclusion that the more serious the environmental problem the smaller will be the equilibrium membership of an IEA. Our paper examines the implications for emissions, IEA membership and welfare of assuming that countries make both emissions and IEA membership decisions in the alternative moral fashion of acting as imperfect Kantians as defined by Alger and Weibull (Econometrica 81:2269–2302, 2013). We show that (i) the first-best can be achieved when countries either act as Perfect Kantians or by fully cooperating; (ii) in a more imperfect setting, these two forms of moral behaviour are complementary approaches to improving welfare outcomes in the sense that the greater the weights on Kantian behaviour the larger is the equilibrium coalition; (iii) the weights on Kantian behaviour that will induce full cooperation and hence the first-best are significantly less than 1; (iv) for given Kantian weights, our model generates higher equilibrium IEA membership, lower emissions and higher welfare than in the related paper by Eichner and Pethig (International environmental agreements when countries behave morally) which, we argue, does not fully capture the benefits of membership decisions. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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