Subjects -> MINES AND MINING INDUSTRY (Total: 82 journals)
Showing 1 - 42 of 42 Journals sorted alphabetically
American Mineralogist     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Applied Earth Science : Transactions of the Institutions of Mining and Metallurgy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Archives of Mining Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
AusiMM Bulletin     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
BHM Berg- und Hüttenmännische Monatshefte     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Canadian Mineralogist     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
CIM Journal     Hybrid Journal  
Clay Minerals     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Clays and Clay Minerals     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Coal Science and Technology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Environmental Geochemistry and Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
European Journal of Mineralogy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Exploration and Mining Geology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Extractive Industries and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Gems & Gemology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Geology of Ore Deposits     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Geomaterials     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Geotechnical and Geological Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Ghana Mining Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Gold Bulletin     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Inside Mining     Full-text available via subscription  
International Journal of Coal Geology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
International Journal of Coal Preparation and Utilization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
International Journal of Coal Science & Technology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
International Journal of Minerals, Metallurgy, and Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
International Journal of Mining and Geo-Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
International Journal of Mining and Mineral Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
International Journal of Mining Engineering and Mineral Processing     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
International Journal of Mining Science and Technology     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
International Journal of Mining, Reclamation and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Journal of Analytical and Numerical Methods in Mining Engineering     Open Access  
Journal of Applied Geophysics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Journal of Central South University     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of China Coal Society     Open Access  
Journal of China University of Mining and Technology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Convention & Event Tourism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Geology and Mining Research     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Human Resources in Hospitality & Tourism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Journal of Materials Research and Technology     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Metamorphic Geology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Journal of Mining Institute     Open Access  
Journal of Mining Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Sustainable Mining     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Lithology and Mineral Resources     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Lithos     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Mine Water and the Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Mineral Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Mineral Processing and Extractive Metallurgy : Transactions of the Institutions of Mining and Metallurgy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Mineral Processing and Extractive Metallurgy Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mineralium Deposita     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Mineralogia     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Mineralogical Magazine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mineralogy and Petrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Minerals     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Minerals & Energy - Raw Materials Report     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Minerals Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Mining Engineering     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Mining Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Mining Report     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mining Technology : Transactions of the Institutions of Mining and Metallurgy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration     Hybrid Journal  
Natural Resources & Engineering     Hybrid Journal  
Natural Resources Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Neues Jahrbuch für Mineralogie - Abhandlungen     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Physics and Chemistry of Minerals     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Podzemni Radovi     Open Access  
Rangeland Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Réalités industrielles     Full-text available via subscription  
Rem : Revista Escola de Minas     Open Access  
Resources Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Revista del Instituto de Investigación de la Facultad de Ingeniería Geológica, Minera, Metalurgica y Geográfica     Open Access  
Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Rocks & Minerals     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Rudarsko-geološko-naftni Zbornik     Open Access  
Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Mineral Economics
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.285
Citation Impact (citeScore): 1
Number of Followers: 2  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 2191-2203 - ISSN (Online) 2191-2211
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2656 journals]
  • Monetary impacts and overshooting of energy prices: the case of the U.S.
           coal prices
    • Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of monetary policy on determination and dynamics of coal prices in a closed economy setting in the USA. Economic theory tells us that if a change in macroeconomic policy has raised (lowered) the real interest rate above (below) its long-run equilibrium level, then coal prices should fall below (rise above) their long-run equilibrium path. Likewise, an unanticipated increase in the expected long-run rate of money growth increases the coal prices in the long-run equilibrium path and in turn the current coal price. Finally, when there is a change in the level of money supply, the price of coal initially overshoots its long-run equilibrium. Empirical time-series analysis confirms that coal prices react to monetary policy in the long run, i.e., monetary policy has a non-neutral impact on coal prices. Long-term adjustment is more pronounced for coal prices than for manufactured goods and services. In the short run, the degree of immediate adjustment or overshooting for coal prices in response to monetary policy shocks is, surprisingly, lesser than for manufactured goods and services.
      PubDate: 2019-03-20
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00178-3
  • Metal intensity of use in the era of global value chains
    • Abstract: The growing importance and complexity of global value chains distances consumption of metals embodied in final goods from the time and location of initial ore mining, processing, and trade. Fragmentation of global production complicates the analysis of metal intensity of use and requires novel approaches and types of data used. In this study, we use the trade in value-added (TiVA) database as it allows for the measurement of value added of a particular industry embodied in final demand, while accounting for contributions of domestic and foreign suppliers of intermediate goods. Recent studies show that these value-added consumption data reduce double counting that characterizes conventional gross data. Using the panel data on 63 countries over 1995–2011, we find that economic structure explains variations in metal intensity of use which we define as a ratio of value added of metals consumed to the aggregate value added. Given the declining shares of manufacturing and increasing shares of services in both advanced and developing economies, we may expect global metal intensity of use to decrease in the long run. However, metal intensity of use may receive some boosts due to expansionary stages of the business cycle and increased investment. In addition, those metals that are used in high technology applications may experience increasing intensity of use.
      PubDate: 2019-03-11
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00176-5
  • Raimund Bleischwitz, Holger Hoff, Catalina Spataru, Ester van der Voet,
           and Stacy D. VanDeveer (ed): Routledge Handbook of the Resource Nexus
    • PubDate: 2019-03-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00177-4
  • On the way up: manganese, chrome ore, and ferro-alloy in India
    • Abstract: The Steel Policy of India, 2017 aspires to achieve 300 million tonnes of steel-making capacity by 2030. This would translate into additional consumption of manganese and chrome ore other than iron ore as essential raw material for steel making. Similarly, ferro-alloys are one of the important inputs in the manufacture of alloys and special steel. The growth of the ferro-alloy industry is, thus, linked with the development of the iron and steel industry. With the abundant resources, there is huge potential of manganese ore and chromite and ferro-alloy industry in India. India has huge resources of manganese and chrome but the import of these minerals is increasing. Due to limited availability of high-grade manganese ore and chromite reserve in the country, lower grade ore has to be upgraded by beneficiation.
      PubDate: 2019-03-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00174-7
  • Estimating the economics of a mining project on seafloor manganese
    • Abstract: The recent and renewed interest in deep-sea mining relates to the decrease of ore grades of known land-based deposits, the increasing costs in land-based mining, as well as rising metal prices, and an increased demand for strategic metals. This study examines the economic requirements for future commercial mining projects focusing on manganese nodules. Beside the common measures of profitability, the net present value (NPV), and the internal rate of return (IRR), an additional measure, the net profit (NP), is presented to indicate the profitability by considering past and future cost and price trends. Furthermore, the approach may be applied to determine the areas of commercial interest. The Blue Mining project in the 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission serves as a reference case study. Having applied the developed methodology to a set of assumptions and estimates, results indicate that nodule mining projects would—at the time being and the foreseeable future—be launched at the verge of financial profitability.
      PubDate: 2019-02-27
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00169-4
  • Mining productivity and the fourth industrial revolution
    • Abstract: Rising productivity, alongside exploration, is the principal means by which mining can combat resource depletion. Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the mining industry has been remarkably successful in growing its productivity. However, since 2000, there are signs of a slowdown. Some aspects of this are clearly cyclical but there are increasing concerns that some of the underlying, longer term, factors which have kept productivity growing in the past are losing their force. Key amongst these factors are the physical contributions that the second industrial revolution, beginning in the late nineteenth century, brought to mining, most notably in the form of larger equipment operating in larger mines. There is much discussion in the industry around the arrival of a fourth industrial revolution and how this might ‘disrupt’ the sector and deliver a new boost to productivity through the promotion of intelligent mining but thus far there is little the evidence of such a boost. In its absence, the mining industry faces the prospect of rising costs as grades fall and waste volumes grow.
      PubDate: 2019-02-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00172-9
  • Promoting downstream processing: resource nationalism or industrial
    • Abstract: The article aims to provide a critical overview of the arguments used in the debate about policies to promote downstream processing of minerals, particularly coercive policies such as export taxes or bans. It reviews some of the possible reasons why downstream processing of minerals does not always take place in the country where they are mined, including asymmetry of market power, tariff escalation, scale factors, availability of inputs, closeness to market, and business environment. The costs (in terms of lost exports of unprocessed exports) and benefits (in terms of increased processing) of coercive further processing policies are discussed, using as an example Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed minerals from 2014 to 2016. It is concluded that there are few if any examples of successful use of taxes or restrictions on unprocessed products to promote downstream processing. Existing evidence appears to show that the severity and duration of the downturn in exports of unprocessed products surprised governments and that few governments even attempt to estimate either the negative or the positive impacts in any systematic manner. It would probably be more productive in most cases to instead emphasize industrial policies that focus on removing constraints and bottlenecks that stand in the way of the economy reaching its full potential, including those relating to skills, credit, energy supply, transport infrastructure, and inappropriate regulation.
      PubDate: 2019-02-14
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00170-x
  • The cobalt market revisited
    • Abstract: The cobalt market is a market that has frequent supply shortages and crises. This paper looks at the changes in the cobalt market from the period of the 1970s to 2018 to gain insights into how the cobalt market is responding and adjusting to periods of supply shortages. Particular concern has arisen due to the potential large increase in the need for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. Is the supply of cobalt able to grow at the necessary rate to match the projected increase in the production of electric vehicles' The paper finds that some cobalt market adjustments have occurred over the time period in response to supply risk, but these adjustments have not significantly offset the cobalt market characteristics that largely drive its behavior: by-product supply, the large amount of low-cost material in the DR Congo, and the technical advantages of using cobalt in its applications over potential substitutes. The ramifications for post-2018 are probably more of the same behavior. The cobalt market will continue to make incremental adjustments over time as periodic short-run price spikes occur with the corresponding supply “crisis.” The move of the cobalt market to a dominant end use may make the market even more cyclical and prone to supply crises.
      PubDate: 2019-02-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00173-8
  • Mining corporate portfolio optimization model with company’s operational
           performance level and international risk
    • Abstract: The mineral industry has encountered severe price turbulence in the recent years. A new portfolio management strategy will help to actively deal with this turbulence, corporate mining organizations need to improve their decision-making processes associated with capital allocation to new proposed projects. The proposed approach will help mining corporates to improve their capital allocation strategies to new projects in such a way as to consider operational performance in the prioritization of business-related spending on capital projects. The problem is formulated as the minimization of the risk at the desired return under constraints of operational performance requirement of the project’s initiators product group. This optimization model is solved using MATLAB. The results show that, on top of the NPV criteria, the more you diversify the portfolio, the more you potentially increase the corporate portfolio return and the more you slightly increase the risk for correlated projects. These results also show that as the performance of the product group increases, the number of approved projects at the corporate level also increases.
      PubDate: 2019-02-05
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00171-w
  • Mineral grades: an important indicator for environmental impact of mineral
    • Abstract: We have collected and analysed grade information for nine metals: copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, nickel, PGM, tin, and zinc. Based on this analysis, we have developed a proposal of “grade classes”, i.e., what could be considered low-grade, average-grade, and high-grade deposits for all these metals. We discuss the implications of possible developments into the future of the grades of ores, from which these metals are extracted. A focus on high-grade deposits will naturally reduce the environmental impact of mining. For six metals (copper, gold, iron, nickel, PGM, and zinc), we have further analysed the volumes available for the 10% cohort of projects and operating mines with the highest grades. Three metals (iron, PGM, and zinc) show considerable volumes, between 15 and 20% of total metal content in resources in this high-grade percentile. Copper and gold have between 5 and 10% while nickel has only 1.7% in the highest 10% grade percentile.
      PubDate: 2019-01-08
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-00168-x
  • Fifty years of copper mining: the US labor productivity
    • Abstract: In the past 50 years, the US copper mining industry has experienced remarkable changes. During the 1970s and early 1980s, the US copper mining industry suffered a major recession. However, a few companies survived by implementing severe cost-cutting measures through innovation and technological changes. These efforts, in turn, helped quintuple labor productivity in the three decades following. Then from 2003 to 2012, labor productivity declined sharply to the levels equal to those of the early 1980s. This decline, following years of rising productivity, has led to questioning the effects of innovation and technological change on mining labor productivity. It has been argued that new technology will no longer be able to offset the adverse effects of depletion thus resulting in higher prices in the future. This study investigates the determinants of copper mining labor productivity empirically, and the extent to which they may vary cyclically for longer time spans (1965 to 2015) from the US perspective. The statistical model examines the level of labor productivity as a function of copper price, recoverable copper content of ore (percentage yield), production share of leaching, mine production index, and time trend. Overall, the results support the conclusion that falling productivity is mostly cyclical.
      PubDate: 2018-12-03
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-00167-y
  • Depletion, technology, and productivity growth in the metallic minerals
    • Abstract: Technological advancements dictate the productivity growth in all industries, including extractive ones. In the peculiar case of metallic mineral industries, this growth is also impacted by the natural variation in the metal content and chemical composition of the ore input, in the course of cumulative extraction and depletion of resources. Through a disaggregated treatment of productivity data achieved by using the input-output data on subprocesses of copper production and correlating them with input characteristics (ore grade), this study identifies and evaluates the impacts of the periodic changes in the natural input, as well as those of the technological progress, while reasonably controlling the influence of the other unrelated factors. This provides an objective assessment of the manner and extent of mitigation of the impact of the depletion-driven changes in the natural inputs of the said industry, through technological advancements. It reveals that the continuous and incremental developments in technology, successfully offset the detrimental effects of depletion on the copper sector productivity, often aided by the geological characteristics that changed to the miners’ advantage. However, the impact of depletion stands to outweigh the gains from innovative technologies, as soon as the ores breach a minimum threshold level of purity or chemistry. This study thus establishes the usefulness of productivity studies in estimating the impacts of depletion that may not proceed in strictly sequential and uni-directional manner. More importantly, it shows that the impacts are neither uniform nor linear and are not always detrimental to productivity growth. Though the study is primarily based on copper industry, the findings hold relevance for other metal industries too.
      PubDate: 2018-11-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-0165-8
  • Key elements of a model mining code: a Middle East case study
    • Abstract: There can be an inclination amongst some governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to view the resource sector with some cynicism. Junior mining companies sometimes engage with local communities (or not), leave without a trace (or perhaps with tracks, trails and trenches) and offer only a brief hope for betterment (or long-standing court battles over environmental or community issues) causing strong emotive reactions. None of the major miners have managed to avoid controversy in their own corporate histories either; of course, none ever could. The art of crafting reform to mineral regulation throughout the world has become a balancing act for the international resource lawyer. The mining company requires certainty when investing in exploration, development or expansion projects in a foreign country to offset the substantial uncertainty inherent in the exploration and mining processes themselves. One needs clear rules which are consistently applied that assure the developer that it may explore, develop and produce any discovery without interference of government or any other person and can measure with some accuracy the expected investment and the anticipated reward. This paper examines several mining codes in the Middle East and offers a critical assessment of their relative opportunity and risk to the developer. It examines each risk in comparative detail, including in comparison to a set of principles found in an exemplary mining code adopted by Madagascar in 2005. The principles of a model mining code (MMC) have been determined after examining more than 50 mining codes from around the world and benefit from the work of MineHutte and the Fraser Institute, which offer ratings for mining regulatory regimes based on different criteria.
      PubDate: 2018-11-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-0166-7
  • Correction to: The environmental criticality of primary raw materials—a
           new methodology to assess global environmental hazard potentials of
           minerals and metals from mining
    • Abstract: The original version of this article was revised.
      PubDate: 2018-10-05
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-0164-9
  • Valuation of mineral resources with special reference to India
    • Abstract: Valuation of mineral resources is an exclusive activity of paramount importance that has its influence in managing the economics of the minerals produced in the country. Unlike determining the values of other product entities, valuation of minerals has its uniqueness in terms of methodologies and approaches that are adopted. There are many variables that are, directly or indirectly, associated with the valuation process. Historically, attempts were made to include valuation of mineral resources into national accounts. There are three different approaches to valuation of mineral resources. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to describe the classification of valuation models, different methods of mineral valuation, and preferred methodology adopted for the Indian mineral resources.
      PubDate: 2018-10-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-017-0120-0
  • Discovered and undiscovered mineral resources: Evolving accounts and
           future prospects of minerals in Finland
    • Abstract: Minerals are natural resources requiring accurate investigation and planning of extraction prior the actual mining stage. National and regional mineral resource inventories would benefit from adding more detail beyond tonnage, grade and location, when evaluating both current and potential future mineral wealth. In this paper, we consider the effect of information, time and project cycle on the mineral resource inventories for Finland. The research is forward-looking, and thus, we include the identified (but not mined) portions of discovered mineral resources and also the estimated undiscovered mineral resources (terminology based on the United States Geological Survey mineral resource classification). In addition, we consider how other types of land use limit mineral exploration. The studied metals were Cu, Ni, Zn, Cr, Fe, Au, Ag, Pt and Pd. The identified mineral resources of all of these metals increased from 2008 to 2015, driven by exploration and development at already known mineral deposits and mine sites. The results show that continuation of mine production is relatively well supported by currently profitable resources (i.e. ore reserves) in active mines and via development projects in the pipeline. In addition, a significant amounts of resources are still inferred to be discoverable for Pt, Pd, Cr, Au and Cu. A quarter of the mineral potential areas are reserved for land uses that restrict but not necessarily prevent mineral exploration. A share of identified resources occur in deposits that are not feasible for mining or interesting enough for exploration and development today. Our study demonstrates that identified resources become usable within different time periods. Knowledge of mineral resources and their usability is constantly changing, and even though mineral deposits are non-renewable, known mineral resources can be increased by exploration and mine planning processes.
      PubDate: 2018-10-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-017-0131-x
  • Steel trade structure and the balance of steelmaking technologies in
           non-OECD countries: the implications for catch-up path
    • Abstract: The landscape of the steel industry has changed significantly since the start of the twenty-first century. The countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have played an active role in the global steel industry. However, in the past decade, non-OECD countries have also caught up with trends. Non-OECD countries have developed from peripheral players to major centres of global steel production and trade, and they should continue to play a crucial role in the global steel market as a result of steady capacity additions. In addition to changes in the composition of the global steel market, there has been a gradual change in the structure of production technologies in the global steel industry. With the increasing importance of the electric arc furnace (EAF) route, does the blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BF/BOF) route still play an important role for non-OECD countries to catch-up with OECD countries' This study provides an in-depth analysis of non-OECD countries’ steel production and trade, and the results indicate that the balance of steelmaking technologies is associated with steel trade structure in non-OECD countries. The BF/BOF route is more likely to be significant for non-OECD countries to become net exporters of steel and diversify and/or to upgrade exports of steel products.
      PubDate: 2018-09-25
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-0163-x
  • A comprehensive approach for a techno-economic assessment of nodule mining
           in the deep sea
    • Authors: Sebastian Ernst Volkmann; Thomas Kuhn; Felix Lehnen
      Abstract: Mine planning of land-based mineral deposits follows well-established methods. The deep sea is currently under exploration, but mine planning approaches are still lacking. A spatial planning tool to assess the techno-economic requirements and implications of manganese nodule mining on deep-sea deposits is proposed in this paper. The comprehensive approach has been validated using research findings of the Blue Mining project, which received funding from the European Commission. A part of the German exploration area E1, located in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone, Pacific Ocean, serves as a case study area. The approach contributes to a responsible utilization of mineral resources in the deep sea, considering geological, economic and financial as well as technical and operational aspects. The approach may also be applicable for an early-stage assessment of other projects related to spatially distributed mineral resources, e.g., marine phosphate nodules. Furthermore, it could also be helpful for the investigation of the environmental impacts of seafloor manganese nodule mining.
      PubDate: 2018-02-21
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-0143-1
  • Methods in macroeconomic forecasting uncertainty analysis: an assessment
           of the 2015 National Defense Stockpile Requirements Report
    • Authors: Justin M. Lloyd; Wallice Y. Ao; Amrit K. Romana; Eleanor L. Schwartz
      Abstract: To sustain the essential civilian economy and provide for the national defense during a national emergency scenario, the United States Department of Defense (U.S. DoD) maintains a stockpile of strategic and critical materials that are key to the functionality of the national industrial base. The National Defense Stock Piling Act (50 U.S. Code 98) mandates the existence of the National Defense Stockpile, as well as a biennial requirements report provided to the U.S. Congress by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), which guides the selection of the types and quantities of materials in the National Defense Stockpile (NDS). Estimates of potential material shortfalls, or the differences between material demands and supplies, under the assumptions and prescriptions of a “Base Case” national emergency planning scenario are a primary component of the report. The National Defense Stock Piling Act also mandates that a variety of parametric sensitivity studies of the Base Case be included in the NDS report. In compliance with this aspect of the law, the baseline macroeconomic forecast that drives Base Case material demand estimates is systematically perturbed and then used to calculate adjusted material shortfalls, characterizing the sensitivity of material shortfall estimates to macroeconomic forecast uncertainty. Ultimately, this process leads to a better understanding of the impact of economic forecasting errors, which are a proxy for forecast uncertainty, on the material shortfall estimates contained in the NDS requirements report. The mathematical characterization of shortfall estimate uncertainties potentially motivates more conservative stockpiling policies, such as worst-case planning practices designed to hedge against maximum downside risks. While many approaches to the perturbation analysis are reasonable, a specific method for examining uncertainty was consistently implemented in past NDS reports and reused for the 2015 NDS Requirements Report. This paper quantifies the sensitivity of the NDS recommendations to macroeconomic forecasting errors and describes the methods used to conduct the sensitivity analysis. These methods are compared and contrasted to showcase the current techniques employed by the DoD to quantify its exposure to critical material risk.
      PubDate: 2018-02-05
      DOI: 10.1007/s13563-017-0127-6
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