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- Lightning forecast from chaotic and incomplete time series using wavelet
de-noising and spatiotemporal kriging
Authors: Jared Nystrom, Raymond R. Hill, Andrew Geyer, Joseph J. Pignatiello, Eric Chicken
Abstract: Present a method to impute missing data from a chaotic time series, in this case lightning prediction data, and then use that completed dataset to create lightning prediction forecasts. Using the technique of spatiotemporal kriging to estimate data that is autocorrelated but in space and time. Using the estimated data in an imputation methodology completes a dataset used in lightning prediction. The techniques provided prove robust to the chaotic nature of the data, and the resulting time series displays evidence of smoothing while also preserving the signal of interest for lightning prediction. The research is limited to the data collected in support of weather prediction work through the 45th Weather Squadron of the United States Air Force. These methods are important due to the increasing reliance on sensor systems. These systems often provide incomplete and chaotic data, which must be used despite collection limitations. This work establishes a viable data imputation methodology. Improved lightning prediction, as with any improved prediction methods for natural weather events, can save lives and resources due to timely, cautious behaviors as a result of the predictions. Based on the authors’ knowledge, this is a novel application of these imputation methods and the forecasting methods.
Citation: Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
PubDate: 2023-10-24
DOI: 10.1108/JDAL-03-2023-0003
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
- A primer on using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate marksmanship
Authors: Adam Biggs, Joseph Hamilton
Abstract: Evaluating warfighter lethality is a critical aspect of military performance. Raw metrics such as marksmanship speed and accuracy can provide some insight, yet interpreting subtle differences can be challenging. For example, is a speed difference of 300 milliseconds more important than a 10% accuracy difference on the same drill' Marksmanship evaluations must have objective methods to differentiate between critical factors while maintaining a holistic view of human performance. Monte Carlo simulations are one method to circumvent speed/accuracy trade-offs within marksmanship evaluations. They can accommodate both speed and accuracy implications simultaneously without needing to hold one constant for the sake of the other. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can incorporate variability as a key element of performance. This approach thus allows analysts to determine consistency of performance expectations when projecting future outcomes. The review divides outcomes into both theoretical overview and practical implication sections. Each aspect of the Monte Carlo simulation can be addressed separately, reviewed and then incorporated as a potential component of small arms combat modeling. This application allows for new human performance practitioners to more quickly adopt the method for different applications. Performance implications are often presented as inferential statistics. By using the Monte Carlo simulations, practitioners can present outcomes in terms of lethality. This method should help convey the impact of any marksmanship evaluation to senior leadership better than current inferential statistics, such as effect size measures.
Citation: Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
PubDate: 2023-10-23
DOI: 10.1108/JDAL-10-2022-0008
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
- Swedish public procurement and the defence industry:
obstacles and opportunities
Authors: Roland Hellberg
Abstract: A deteriorating security situation and an increased need for defence equipment calls for new forms of collaboration between Armed Forces and the defence industry. This paper aims to investigate the ways in which the accelerating demand for increased security of supply of equipment and supplies to the Armed Forces requires adaptability in the procurement process that is governed by laws on public procurement (PP). This paper is based on a review of current literature as well as empirical data obtained through interviews with representatives from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish defence industry. Collaboration with the globalized defence industry requires new approaches, where the PP rules make procurement of a safe supply of defence equipment difficult. The study's empirical data and findings are based on the Swedish context. In order to draw more general conclusions in a defence context, the study should be expanded to cover more nations. The findings will enable the defence industry and the procurement authorizations to better understand the requirements of Armed Forces, and how to cooperate under applicable legal and regulatory requirements. The paper extends the extant body of academic knowledge of the security of supply into the defence sector. It serves as a first step towards articulating a call for new approaches to collaboration in defence supply chains.
Citation: Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
PubDate: 2023-10-13
DOI: 10.1108/JDAL-12-2022-0015
Issue No: Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print (2023)
- A survey of technologies supporting design of a multimodal interactive
robot for military communication
Authors: Sheuli Paul
Abstract: This paper presents a survey of research into interactive robotic systems for the purpose of identifying the state of the art capabilities as well as the extant gaps in this emerging field. Communication is multimodal. Multimodality is a representation of many modes chosen from rhetorical aspects for its communication potentials. The author seeks to define the available automation capabilities in communication using multimodalities that will support a proposed Interactive Robot System (IRS) as an AI mounted robotic platform to advance the speed and quality of military operational and tactical decision making. This review will begin by presenting key developments in the robotic interaction field with the objective of identifying essential technological developments that set conditions for robotic platforms to function autonomously. After surveying the key aspects in Human Robot Interaction (HRI), Unmanned Autonomous System (UAS), visualization, Virtual Environment (VE) and prediction, the paper then proceeds to describe the gaps in the application areas that will require extension and integration to enable the prototyping of the IRS. A brief examination of other work in HRI-related fields concludes with a recapitulation of the IRS challenge that will set conditions for future success. Using insights from a balanced cross section of sources from the government, academic, and commercial entities that contribute to HRI a multimodal IRS in military communication is introduced. Multimodal IRS (MIRS) in military communication has yet to be deployed. Multimodal robotic interface for the MIRS is an interdisciplinary endeavour. This is not realistic that one can comprehend all expert and related knowledge and skills to design and develop such multimodal interactive robotic interface. In this brief preliminary survey, the author has discussed extant AI, robotics, NLP, CV, VDM, and VE applications that is directly related to multimodal interaction. Each mode of this multimodal communication is an active research area. Multimodal human/military robot communication is the ultimate goal of this research. A multimodal autonomous robot in military communication using speech, images, gestures, VST and VE has yet to be deployed. Autonomous multimodal communication is expected to open wider possibilities for all armed forces. Given the density of the land domain, the army is in a position to exploit the opportunities for human–machine teaming (HMT) exposure. Naval and air forces will adopt platform specific suites for specially selected operators to integrate with and leverage this emerging technology. The possession of a flexible communications means that readily adapts to virtual training will enhance planning and mission rehearsals tremendously. Interaction, perception, cognition and visualization based multimodal communication system is yet missing. Options to communicate, express and convey information in HMT setting with multiple options, suggestions and recommendations will certainly enhance military communication, strength, engagement, security, cognition, perception as well as the ability to act confidently for a successful mission. The objective is to develop a multimodal autonomous interactive robot for military communications. This survey reports the state of the art, what exists and what is missing, what can be done and possibilities of extension that support the military in maintaining effective communication using multimodalities. There are some separate ongoing progresses, such as in machine-enabled speech, image recognition, tracking, visualizations for situational awareness, and virtual environments. At this time, there is no integrated approach for multimodal human robot interaction that proposes a flexible and agile communication. The report briefly introduces the research proposal about multimodal interactive robot in military communication.
Citation: Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
PubDate: 2023-11-13
DOI: 10.1108/JDAL-11-2022-0010
Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 2 (2023)
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