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- Factors affecting recruitment and retention of specialist officers in the
Swedish Armed Forces: A longitudinal cohort study
Abstract: Specialist officers (SOs) (OR 6–9) are a key category of the Swedish Armed Forces (SAF). This study aimed to identify factors affecting the recruitment and retention of this key category. A longitudinal study design was chosen; interviews comprising a cohort of 20 persons were conducted during three successive years. A part of the analysis focussed on the development of organisational commitment over time. The major findings included that high organisational commitment counteracted negative factors such as low wages and limited career opportunities. However, there was serious concern regarding the long-term prospects of military employment. Overall, high affective commitment was found to be the most important contributing factor, even extending to those leaving the military. SOs were largely content with their choice of career; they considered the work as tactic officers (OF) as bureaucratic and unattractive.
PubDate: Wed, 28 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT
- Comparing the resilience objectives of Finnish comprehensive security
model and the NATO baseline requirements for resilience
Abstract: Finnish national preparedness is conceptualized in the comprehensive security model (CSM). It presents a cooperation model for Finnish security stakeholders: officials, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), companies, and citizens. The concept of resilience is sparingly used in Finnish strategy documents but is a major objective for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which Finland joined in 2023. NATO sets the minimum criteria for national preparedness in seven NATO baseline requirements (NBRs) of resilience. NATO considers resilience a national responsibility. This paper investigates to what extent the Finnish CSM covers the NBRs, and which stakeholders are entrusted with safeguarding them. A framework utilizing the seven NBRs and three stakeholder levels is developed. Recent Finnish Government level documents are used as the main source of data for the study, supplemented with expert interviews. The results suggest that the CSM covers all the NBRs. The CSM is also broader in scope than the NBRs. The two NBR categories, ability to deal with large-scale population movements and resilient civilian transportation systems, are not covered regarding the individual citizens’ level, but this is not deemed to be a major problem.
PubDate: Sat, 26 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMT
- One hundred thirty years of armed conflict: Challenges and opportunities
in technology adoption
Abstract: This article aims to comprehend the processes of forecasting and adopting new technologies by the armies of modern states. In this regard, we studied the relevant literature regarding a series of wars where new technologies were widely implemented, ranging from the American Civil War to the Gulf War. The identification of successful and failed examples of forecasting and adoption has led us to identify certain timeless trends that persist despite the passing of years, technological evolutions and manners of conducting combat. These trends, which include the fact that individuals who make the most accurate forecasts often differ from those who influence the implementation of novel technologies, the importance of a high educational level within both military and social ecosystems for the emergence, recognition and effective implementation of technological innovations and the influence of political systems and military administrative structures, are presented in the conclusion of the article.
PubDate: Mon, 03 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMT
- Exploring crisis management response to hybrid threats and warfare
Abstract: Crisis management (CM) operations and organisations may face internal, external and hybrid threats (HTs) against their information and/or personnel. This research looks at how selected European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and national perspectives address internal, external and global HTs and influence, even warfare, and maps some relevant strategies to prepare against them in a CM context. Strategies to fight against HTs include relevant political debate and decision-making, integration of EU- and national-level security into critical infrastructure and regular preparedness exercises. Responses to HTs call for relevant technical, situational awareness and problem-solving skills. This research shows how collaboration and situation understanding can assist in detecting and responding to possible cyber and HTs against CM operations. This study examines how collaboration and understanding the situation assist in detecting and responding to HTs to CM operations. There is evidence that information exchange and collaboration are important elements in the fight against hybrid influence and war. Combating misinformation through public education campaigns can support both the civilian and military elements of CM operations. Specific training can be designed to counter aggressive propaganda and disinformation efforts against personnel in CM operations. This maintains one’s initiative and trust in the aims of the mission.
PubDate: Fri, 27 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- A dynamic and decentralised headquarters to thrive in uncertainty
Abstract: Military headquarters have been seen as grown up to the point that this reduces the agility of decision-making and decreases the survivability of the headquarters and command posts in war. At the same time, war is becoming ever more complex and intertwined through the fast pace of information flows and technological advancements. This design science research aims to solve these problems of headquarters. The research was done by framing the problem with several theories and then designing a solution. Systems thinking and complexity leadership theories were used to understand the problem. After this qualitative coding was used to form complexity leadership themes specific to military headquarters. These themes were combined with organisational theories and the military theories of tempo-based operations. A solution was then designed through theory-based analysis and abductive reasoning and tested in exercises. This article suggests that military headquarters should not seek for one optimal organisational structure, but instead the structures should be intentionally and dynamically tailored according to the situation and context at hand. A headquarters seen through the mental model of a Dynamic Headquarters Structure (DHS) can adjust its own networking, information-flows and delegation of decision-making to thrive in different environments.
PubDate: Fri, 20 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Innovation and adaptation in public–private partnerships in the military
domain under broad-spectrum influencing: Towards a competence-based
strategic approach
Abstract: The purpose of this research is to conduct two instrumental case studies, one from Finland and the other from Israel. These case studies explain ‘why’ and ‘how’ clear and significant differences exist between these two nations in the area of military innovation and adaptation. Research strategy is not to conduct a comparative case study, but results make it possible to find and evaluate operating methods suitable for building and safeguarding Finnish society in cooperation between private and public actors. The operating methods being studied focus on the early stages in the life cycle of developing military capability. This study utilises the inductive approach, in which data guide the research process. As the research progresses, new information is built on top of the acquired data, and the overall picture of the topic is constructed in an iterative manner. Contribution of the research are propositions that the Finnish Defence Forces would benefit from a competence-based strategic approach to partially replace the resource-based approach. A separate sub-strategy with its foundation in competence-based strategy is proposed for innovation activities. Results indicate that the excellence-based approach chosen by Israel that emerged in the case study and literature review has specifically produced results in the area of developing innovation activities.
PubDate: Wed, 11 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Deterrence strategies for a small state: Analysis and survey
Abstract: Classical deterrence theory has its origins in the era of the Cold War and the nuclear arms race between the USA and the Soviet Union. Therefore, deterrence is mainly studied from the perspective of the superpowers. This study approaches deterrence from the less explored perspective of a small country by analysing academic deterrence literature and further deepening this perspective by means of a survey. As a result, the study produced a new view of how a small state can be positioned in modern deterrence theories, by introducing national and international enabling and preventive factors. The main findings of the research suggest that national enabling factors, such as a strong national defence and the resilience of the society, are important for a small state in terms of compensating for the deficit in influence in relation to superpowers. Limited options for building deterrence can be augmented by means of international enabling factors, such as military and political alliances. Deficits in terms of available military resources and international status could translate into national preventive factors, such as weakness in the eyes of the aggressor. The aggressor’s political intentions and history could appear as international preventive factors if they influence decision-making in an undesirable manner.
PubDate: Mon, 18 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Bridging IDF force-design complexities: Blueprint for bottom-up innovation
– The emergence of transformational commanders and 5 Gen CINOs
Abstract: In the face of an intricate defense landscape, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confronts evolving challenges, necessitating transformative strategies. In the past decade, the IDF championed innovation through decentralized silos (“islands of innovation”), steered by 4th generation Chief Innovation Officers (CINOs) with ‘liquid professionalism’. Since the establishment of the Combat Methods and Innovation (CMI) division, the IDF has formed an institutionalized innovation management system, managed by intraorganizational 5th generation CINOs. This system allowed binding these islands into a cohesive framework (an archipelago) designed to rapidly respond to internal developments and external challenges, showcasing the IDF’s capacity to navigate the complexities of modern warfare with agility and foresight. The main contribution of this article is two-folded, first it advocates for the cultivation of two types of change agents: a. the ‘transformative commanders’, leaders adept at instigating profound, organization-wide change; b. intraorganizational 5th generation CINOs. Second, it introduces a dual-pronged framework specifically designed to harness and streamline a bottom-up innovation within military organizations, and in particularly within the context of the IDF. This interdisciplinary framework is derived from both sociological and organizational systems engineering perspectives. The methodology employed to delineate its contributions leverages the theory of systematic operative design.
PubDate: Thu, 01 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Proposed approach to evaluate the deterrence of limited nuclear attacks
Abstract: A counterforce strategy intends to destroy an adversary’s nuclear arsenal. However, hardening, defences and mobility have made nuclear-delivery systems less vulnerable. Nations may consider limited attacks with one or a few weapons that would not significantly deplete their weapon stockpile or alter the overall nuclear balance. We propose an approach to evaluate limited strikes with regard to military, political, economic and societal aspects. We discuss potential responses along with their compliance to the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC). We contend that a response should be generally proportional, meaning sufficient to achieve deterrence in the hope of avoiding escalation. Responses that greatly exceed the attacker’s inflicted damage will be perceived as unjust and, if executed, may escalate the conflict. Similarly, declared responses that inflict considerably less damage may not be sufficient to deter since the attacker would end the initial exchange in a better relative position between the adversaries. We conclude that deterrence is improved with a range of nuclear capabilities. Countries limiting responses to only military targets based on a strict interpretation of the LOAC may not have a viable response to deter some types of limited nuclear attacks.
PubDate: Mon, 01 Apr 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Drones’ contribution to the transformation of contemporary warfare
Abstract: The introduction of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in contemporary battlefields constitutes a transformation in warfighting. The consequences of such an innovation can be traced not only to the level of strategy but also in political, economic as well as ethical terms. So far, UAVs have demonstrated decisiveness in non-military contested environments and in conflicts that involve failed states. UAVs, however, have been proved to be militarily effective, but not militarily decisive in conventional wars. Simultaneously, a series of limitations makes over-reliance on them to look faulty. Time will tell whether their further technological advancements will be able to revolutionise the conduct of war.
PubDate: Thu, 22 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Beyond the call of duty: Reimagining military service through hero
narratives in the US Army’s ‘The Calling’ campaign
Abstract: This study employs Erwin Panofsky’s iconographic analysis to decode the 2021 US Army recruiting campaign ‘The Calling’, situating it against the historical backdrop of military recruitment since the all-volunteer force’s inception. Panofsky’s framework allows for a dissection of the campaign’s layered narrative and its animated aesthetics, which notably diverge from prior campaign’s emphasis on the warrior archetype. The analysis progresses from a description of visual and narrative element’s (pre-iconography), to an investigation of symbolic meanings (iconography), culminating in an interpretation of underlying societal attitudes (iconology). ‘The Calling’ reimagines military enlistment as a heroic pursuit, echoing the superhero genre’s origin stories, and emerges as a response to waning interest in military careers. The campaign targets the zeitgeist of the young American population, offering a sense of heroism as compensation in a challenging recruitment climate marked by a robust economy and low unemployment. By presenting service as a ‘calling’, the Army navigates the complex terrain of contemporary cultural values, seeking to resonate with potential recruits on an ideological level, particularly within race and gender minority communities.
PubDate: Thu, 22 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Feasibility of kinetic orbital bombardment
Abstract: In this paper, the possible impact effects of orbital bombardment systems and their feasibility are studied. These effects are the projectile penetration into concrete and steel targets and seismic effects. The equations of motion for the re-entry of a projectile and the penetration were solved numerically. The projectile penetration is modelled using the Alekseevskii–Tate model. By varying the altitude (h), projectile length (L), manoeuvre velocity (ΔV) and the target properties, the flight time (t), earthquake magnitude (M) and penetration depth (P) are calculated. The calculations show that the impact of a tungsten alloy rod with a length of 8 m and a 0.4 m diameter results in an earthquake with a seismic magnitude of only 2.5 on the Richter scale. For concrete, the optimal result is obtained for a projectile with a length of 0.56 m. It penetrates 1.79 m with a minimal ΔV trajectory. These results show that a kinetic orbital bombardment system is not feasible without major technological developments, the impact angle being a bottleneck of the concept. Moreover, one has to accept very high costs. Without any means to change the attitude of the projectile, using ICBMs or bombers shows a better penetration performance than re-entry.HighlightsWeapons in orbit may provide a strategic advantage. However, they are restricted by international space laws.Impact angle of the projectile is a bottleneck for kinetic orbital bombardment.Larger impact angles can be achieved, but at the expense of a larger mass-to-orbit.A hypersonic drag device may be used to optimise the impact angle and thus improve the system.Alternative projectile delivery methods (Bomber, Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)) show better performance for both steel and concrete targets.Essentially, only penetration phenomena matter because the seismic effects are not significant. Therefore, orbital bombardment systems don’t even resemble weapons of mass destruction (WMD).Given their limited effect, destroying a particular target requires a guidance and flight control system, which, given the high velocities, may not be feasible.
PubDate: Mon, 05 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT
- Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of
conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically
weighted state arsenal indexing
Abstract: In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of other scholars on the merits of comparing capabilities, arguing that the most accessible insights lie in evaluating the signals sent by state arsenals rather than in predicting conflict outcomes judging from state armament. Second, I present the Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing (CFPI) method and demonstrate that coding for tactical role and degree of technological sophistication enables previously unfeasible estimative comparisons of deterrent signalling value. Finally, I apply CFPI analysis to the conventional arsenals of the United States and the four states named in that country’s most recent National Defense Strategy (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran), deriving conclusions that would be elusive without accessible comparative analysis.
PubDate: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- Autonomous weapon systems and IHL compliance: A constrained legal
optimisation problem
Abstract: Arguments have been made both for and against military use of autonomous weapon systems (AWSs) on the basis of how they will help or hinder a state in meeting its international humanitarian law (IHL) obligations. Often, these arguments are made in isolation, or they fail to address all of the potential compliance concerns related to autonomous weapons. This is not ideal. It means the bearers of legal obligations must locate, assess and piece together the disparate arguments into a coherent structure if they are to know whether they can legitimately utilise a particular autonomous capability and, if so, in what circumstances. This article offers a high-level description of a conceptual framework which can be used to organise and assess legal arguments about autonomous weapons. It proposes that the task of integrating autonomous capabilities into an armed force may be viewed as a constrained optimisation problem wherein the task is to find the optimal balance between the fundamental principles of IHL while also satisfying all normative, technological and strategic/operational constraints.
PubDate: Mon, 06 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- Detecting deceit within a predominantly true statement using two parallel
assessment methods: A pilot study
Abstract: In human intelligence, a verbal statement from a source is seldom 100% true or false, and not very often is the source a total liar or a truth teller. From this standing point, a simple dichotomy of a liar or a truth teller might not offer an adequate diagnostic value for the purposes of human intelligence. A more diagnostic approach would be to assess which parts of the predominantly truthful verbal statement are likely to be true and which parts are assessed to be doubtful. In addition, the use of two parallel methods to detect deceit should improve the diagnostic value of the results. A pilot study in laboratory conditions (n = 8, yielding 190 assessment points) utilising an applied mock crime scenario was conducted. Correlation calculations showed that a dual-method approach slightly improved the within-statement truth accuracy, and it was achieved mainly by decreasing the number of false positives. As the truth accuracy was increased, the lie accuracy within the test group slightly decreased. The results confirmed that by applying parallel orienting response (EDA) and cognitive load (speech-related indices)-based assessment methods, it is possible to detect embedded lies successfully in an information-gathering interview setup.
PubDate: Thu, 26 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- Butcher’s Bills: Engagement-level preponderance and casualties in the
French Revolution Wars and Napoleonic Wars, 1792–1815
Abstract: This article reports findings from an empirical investigation of the generalization captured in the aphorism that ‘god is on the side with the biggest battalions.’ Departing from the focus on major or decisive battles in previous studies, this quantitative analysis using ordered logit and ordinary least squares regression of two data sets of 945 and 823 large, medium and small engagements between the armies of France and its enemies during the Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars from 1792 to 1815 reveals that a preponderance of numbers was positively associated with victory but also higher casualties.
PubDate: Wed, 25 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- Long-term post traumatic growth after moral- and victim-traumas among
Norwegian UN military peacekeepers: the impact of emotional distress and
leadership
Abstract: This study investigated the relationship between traumatic experiences during peacekeeping operations in Lebanon (UNIFIL) between 1978 – 1998 and post traumatic growth (PTG), recalled and measured 17-38 years after, in a sample of 11 633 Norwegian military. Specifically, the study investigated how victim traumas (lethal danger) and moral traumas (moral failure) related to PTG, measured by the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (Cann et al., 2010). Emotional distress experienced during the traumas served as a potential mediator of this relationship, and leadership by closest superior a potential moderator of the mediation. The results showed a significant positive relationship between number of victim traumas and PTG, while number of moral traumas did not contribute to explain variance above this effect. The trauma - PTG relationship was partially mediated by emotional distress, but authentic- and laissez faire leadership did not moderate this mediation. In sum, the veterans with most traumatic experiences, as recalled 17-38 years later, had higher PTG, and emotional distress related to trauma mediated this growth. The findings indicate that traumatic experiences may represent a resource for growth and subsequent hope for recovery. Given the retrospective study-design which might have hindered accurate measurement of PTG, advice on future research approaches is included.
PubDate: Wed, 25 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- Examining the roots of turnover intentions in the Royal Norwegian Navy,
the role of embeddedness, work-life conflict and predictability
Abstract: Retaining qualified personnel is a priority for armed forces, and turnover presents a serious problem. This study uses job embeddedness theory to investigate embeddedness factors, predictability and work–life conflict as predictors of turnover intentions in commissioned officers (COs) and non-commissioned officers (NCOs) in the Royal Norwegian Navy. The study posits that career prospects, community fit, organisational fit and organisational links embed personnel and are associated with a reduction in turnover intentions. In addition, the study proposes a mechanism whereby personnel who experience a predictable work schedule have better work–life balance and subsequently lower turnover intentions. Predictability in turn is hypothesised to be associated with the possibility of flexible hours. Using structural equation modelling, we find that embeddedness factors predicted turnover intentions for both personnel categories, but career prospects were the only significant embeddedness factor for NCOs. Predictability was associated with a reduction in turnover intentions via work–life conflict for both groups. In addition, flexible hours showed an effect on work–life conflict for both groups, but through different mechanisms. Overall, the results point to differential actions to reduce turnover between COs and NCOs in the armed forces and conclude with a priority list for actions to reduce turnover in each personnel group.
PubDate: Thu, 08 Jun 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- On proxy war: A multipurpose tool for a multipolar world
Abstract: Current literature on proxy war tends to miss a set of key factors germane to the study and practice of proxy war. First, proxy wars are distinct from coalitions and alliances because proxy wars, unlike the latter, are rooted in offsetting one’s own risk by offloading it to another actor. Next, analysing proxy relationships and risk through agency theory, network theory, and theories of power illuminate five basic models of proxy relationship – coerced, exploited, transactional, cultural and contractual. These models provide a new understanding of how strategic actors can best leverage a proxy. Moreover, these models provide a basic understanding of what specific types of proxies cannot do. For example, coerced and exploited proxies cannot be counted on for complicated work, or long-duration operations. Transactional proxies, given the business agreement between the principal and proxy, can be counted on to go to the razor’s edge together. Nonetheless, task completion accelerates dyad divergence, and mission accomplishment usually results in transactional solvency. Cultural and contractual relationships are tight-bonded, facilitate complicated missions, and can operate for long periods of time. As a result, strategic actors looking to invest in proxy strategies are best served when utilising cultural or contractual proxies.
PubDate: Tue, 02 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT
- A quantitative analysis of the impact or consequences of the US Coast
Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2006
Abstract: This study examined whether the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2006 affected the United States (US) Coast Guard performance characteristics with respect to incident response. The periods analyzed consisted of a decade before versus a decade after implementation of the legislation. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the p-value approach (p < 0.05), six hypotheses were tested to determine whether statistically significant differences in response attributes existed during the 10 years before versus the 10 years following the passing of the legislation. Four significant hypothesis-testing outcomes represented differences in the number of incidents, incident responses, cumulative lives lost, and lives lost after notification.
PubDate: Mon, 06 Feb 2023 00:00:00 GMT
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