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- Beyond visual range air combat simulations: validation methods and
analysis using agent-based models-
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Authors: André Rossi Kuroswiski, Felipe Leonardo Lôbo Medeiros, Monica Maria De Marchi, Angelo Passaro
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Computer simulations have revolutionized the analysis of military scenarios. As computing power has advanced, simulations can now incorporate intricate tactical-level engagements. However, accurately representing actors’ decisions at this level poses new challenges for developing and validating these simulations. In this context, this paper presents the methodologies and lessons learned from a study conducted to assess the application of agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) in analyzing beyond visual range (BVR) air combat scenarios, focusing on the influence of agent behavior on the outcomes. The proposed approach integrates real pilots into a face validation phase to examine symmetric and asymmetric engagements. The results underscore the significance of agent behaviors for the outcomes, for example, showing how specific behaviors are capable of mitigating the advantages of superior weaponry. Furthermore, the research explores the dynamics of aircraft acting in pairs, demonstrating the potential to evaluate tactics and the impact of numerical advantage. Ultimately, the results enhance the simulations’ credibility and confirm their plausibility, in line with the face validation methodology. This powerful phase bolsters subsequent steps in the overall validation process. In addition, the findings show how specific configurations of the agents, including tactical coordination, can significantly affect the simulation outcomes and validity.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-27T12:44:34Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231211915
- Thermoelastic impact modeling for projectile–target–muzzle components
during penetration start of motion-
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Authors: Jacob Nagler
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
This paper presents the thermoelastic shock wave model components of projectile, target, and muzzle tube during the initial start of penetration. The penetration model is combined using pressure and temperature (e.g., mechanical and thermal shock) that act separately at the moment of penetration (a few microseconds) into a homogeneous or first-layer armor body. The armor’s shape and material will be investigated based on contact principal stress. The reciprocal influence between the penetrator and the armor in the aspect of the projectile nose shape will also be demonstrated. Moreover, the penetrator thermoelastic material’s durability will be examined, based on von Mises criterion. The examination for the initial elastic contact stress impact will be performed by using the explicit solution to temperature-displacement coupling equilibrium, based on commercial finite elements modeling. In addition, a modified impact contact stress model based on both mechanical and thermal energies was proposed and found to agree with the literature. Brief conceptual analysis of projectile–shield interactions was examined. Finally, shooting tube muzzle thermoelastic analysis was performed alongside a literature comparison, which was found to agree qualitatively and quantitatively. Muzzle tube material impact analysis was performed. Finally, it was concluded that muzzle tubes obey the rule that a shorter cylinder length tube develops higher muzzle tube principal stresses.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-27T12:40:24Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231210300
- The future of military medical evacuation: literature analysis focused on
the potential adoption of emerging technologies and advanced
decision-analysis techniques-
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Authors: Sumana Biswas, Hasan Turan, Sondoss Elsawah, Matthew Richmond, Thang Cao
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
A fundamental component of any military medical support system is medical evacuation. The main goal of evacuation is to reduce mortality among critically injured combat casualties. To achieve this goal, several decision problems including, the location of medical treatment facilities, relocation, dispatching, and routing have to be effective across all levels (tactical, operational, and strategic). This study concentrates on the three key types of medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) systems—forward, tactical, and strategic—and the related decision problems. Even though, over the last few years, some review papers have discussed the different topics of MEDEVAC systems (e.g., the evolution of MEDEVAC, evacuation timelines, and types of injuries), no research has been conducted on the full range (i.e., total care pathway) of MEDEVAC systems and the adoption of emerging technologies to improve future MEDEVAC. In this paper, a systematic review of the literature is described, including the decision problems involved in the total military medical evacuation process. This paper also reviews forecast challenges of future MEDEVAC and potential emerging technologies, concepts, and advanced decision-analysis methods to tackle these challenges. In future MEDEVAC processes, emerging technologies and concepts will be important to support improved medical capability; however, military planners will also need to adopt advanced decision-support techniques to efficiently employ these technologies.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-24T11:20:55Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231207660
- Area reconnaissance modeling of modular reconnaissance robotic systems
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Authors: Jan Nohel, Petr Stodola, Jan Zezula, Pavel Zahradníček, Zdeněk Flasar
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
In terms of deploying forces and assets in different domains, the conduct of contemporary military operations can be characterized as complex. Information obtained from a wide range of sources and sensors is thus a crucial factor influencing the course and outcome of an operation. It must be robust, variably deployable, sustainable long-term, modular, and flexible when performing reconnaissance tasks in the rear of enemy forces or in areas threatened by, for example, chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear (CBRN) threats. This paper describes the requirements of commanders for the capabilities of autonomous modular robotic systems performing reconnaissance tasks to support their units. It characterizes the possibilities of using mathematical-algorithmic models in planning the operation of robotic systems. The computational capabilities of tactical decision support system models are demonstrated on two scenarios for the reconnaissance of an area of interest. The partial calculations of the different parts of the reconnaissance task are performed in a logical sequence. Field tests practically verified the variants of performing reconnaissance tasks by robotic systems. The use of digital terrain and relief models, mathematical-algorithmic models, and variant modeling has increased the efficiency of the planning and deployment of a group of robotic systems in the reconnaissance of an area of interest.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-23T10:59:31Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231210302
- Two-stage stochastic programming model of US Army aviation allocation of
utility helicopters to task forces-
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Authors: Russell J Nelson, Jack Werner, Michael G Kay, Russell E King, Brandon M McConnell, Kristin Thoney-Barletta
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
US Army aviation units often organize into task forces to meet mission requirements. The manner in which they allocate assets affects their long-term capabilities to provide aviation support. We propose a model to allocate utility helicopters across geographically separated task forces to minimize the total time of flight and unsupported air movement air mission requests (AMRs) by priority level. We model the allocation problem with a two-stage stochastic program, with the first-stage problem allocating a fleet’s helicopter teams to task forces. The stochastic demand for each task force is then revealed. The second-stage US Army aviation air movement operations planning problem is modeled as a stochastic mixed integer linear program (MILP). A practical application uses the air movement operations planning heuristic to solve the second-stage problem at scale and generate an optimal stochastic solution task force allocation. This paper provides evidence for the practical use of the proposed two-stage stochastic programming model for US Army aviation asset allocation by military decision-makers. Furthermore, this research provides a novel first formulation of a stochastic programming dial-a-ride problem with multinode refuel and a sound framework for military aviation asset allocation decision-making.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-18T11:21:12Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231209039
- Experimental design on high-speed sliding wear
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Authors: Irene Liew, Raymond Hill, Anthony Palazotto, Tony Liu
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
This paper recounts research that develops, conducts, and analyzes an experimental design characterizing wear rates of various materials sliding at high speeds along an AISI 4340 steel rail. The work supports Holloman Air Force Base’s engineering of a more wear-resistant rocket slipper for their high-speed test track. A design of experiments approach is used to systematically identify and evaluate potential slipper attributes that mitigate wear based on a heat transfer model. Results include recommendations of slipper materials that theoretically perform similar to or better than the baseline Vascomax®C300 maraging steel as well as statistical evaluation of the finite element analysis heat transfer model of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s pin-on-disk rig.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-13T10:09:00Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231205308
- Estimating attrition coefficients for the Lanchester equations from
small-unit combat models-
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Authors: Vikram Mittal
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
The Lanchester equations are a valuable tool for analyzing attrition warfare and the impact of new technologies on the battlefield. However, uncertainties regarding the numerical values of attrition coefficients pose a challenge in accurately applying these equations. To address this, entity-based combat simulations focusing on small-unit operations can offer insights into calculating attrition coefficients and analyzing the effects of new technology on the battlefield. This study outlines the development of such entity-based simulations and the associated derivation of attrition coefficients from the results. One method involves using combat simulation to determine the combat multiplier factor associated with a new technology and multiplying the attrition coefficients accordingly. The second method involves basing the attrition coefficients solely on the results of the model. This paper explores each of these methods through two case studies, both of which use the Infantry Warrior Simulation (IWARS). The first case study examines the Battle of Mosul, analyzing the impact of drone technology on ISIS insurgents and the Iraqi army. The second case study investigates the influence of a more accurate rifle in a conflict involving rural and urban combat. It is important to note that these models provide approximations for attrition coefficients and are subject to inherent limitations. Nonetheless, they offer value by capturing the broader implications of integrating technological changes at the small-unit level.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-09T12:16:38Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231210301
- Hallucination, panic, and exhaustion in embodied cognition
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Authors: Rodrick Wallace
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
We demonstrate—under what is perhaps a “best case” analysis—that all enterprises of embodied cognition, ranging from the “simply” cognitive to the actively conscious, and from the individual to the mechanical, institutional, and composite, are susceptible to induced patterns of hallucination, panic, and exhaustion on challenging landscapes of fog, friction, and deadly adversarial intent. That is, embodied cognition, of any nature and on any scale or level of organization, is inherently unstable in the sense of the Data Rate Theorem, requiring constant control information for proper function, a circumstance that can be exploited by traditional adversaries or other evolving entities. We further argue, in consonance with C.S. Gray, that dreams of “Wunderwaffen,”“Wundertaktik,” and implacable “Reflexive Control” are themselves siren hallucinations.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-11-01T11:01:58Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231205036
- Quantifying the robustness of a Bayesian Belief Network in the context of
Unmanned Aerial System threat prediction-
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Authors: Laura Middeldorp, Kerry Malone, Wouter Noordkamp
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs), or drones, are becoming increasingly available to the general public. Because of this, organizations active in safety and security, such as the Dutch Armed Forces and the Dutch National Police, need to be prepared for possible UAS accidents and attacks. To that end, it is vital that the nature of the possible threat that UAS may pose is detected in a timely manner. A method that can be employed for this problem is a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Given the observations made of a UAS and its surroundings, a BBN is capable to determine the most likely type of threat posed by the UAS. Generally, the probabilities that are required as input for this method can be estimated from historical data if enough data are available. However, since only a small amount of data about drone incidents has been collected, expert opinion is used. This introduces uncertainty in the BBN as opinions of experts are subjective. This paper presents a means to construct a BBN for UAS threat prediction when no empirical data are available and determine the robustness of the output. The analysis is restricted specifically to NATO Class I drones (less than 150 kg) in law enforcement operations.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-10-30T09:31:06Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231206825
- Multi-agent reinforcement learning satellite guidance for triangulation of
a moving object in a relative orbit frame-
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Authors: Nicholas Yielding, Joseph Curro, Stephen C Cain
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Multi-agent systems are of ever-increasing importance in a contested space environment—use of multiple, cooperative satellites potentially increases positive mission outcomes on orbit, while autonomy becomes an ever-increasing requirement to increase reaction time to dynamic situations and lower the burden on space operators. This research explores multi-agent satellite swarm Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) using deep reinforcement learning (DRL). DRL policies are trained to provide guidance inputs to agents in multi-agent swarm environments for completing complex, teamwork-focused objectives in geosynchronous orbit. An example scenario is explored for a group of satellite agents maneuvering to triangulate an object that is non-stationary in the relative orbit frame. Reward shaping is used to encourage learning guidance that positions swarm members to maximize triangulation accuracy, using angles-only observations for navigation relative to the target. Results show the policies successfully learn guidance through reward shaping to improve triangulation accuracy by a significant factor.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-10-11T06:25:11Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231197437
- Modeling a reconnaissance operation in an urban environment using a swarm
of UAVs-
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Authors: Petr Stodola, Jan Nohel, Marian Rybanský
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Military operations are increasingly taking place in urban environments; the effective reconnaissance of such environments is critical to their success. This paper deals with modeling the reconnaissance of a built-up area using a swarm of heterogeneous cooperating unmanned aerial vehicles. The model consists of two phases. In the first, a set of waypoints is generated from which the reconnaissance of the walls and roofs of buildings and roads located in the area of intelligence responsibility is performed; the waypoints are deployed in such a manner that the comprehensive reconnaissance of all objects takes place while keeping their number as small as possible. In the second phase, the flight trajectories of the available unmanned aerial vehicles are planned with the purpose of minimizing the overall operation time; the intention is thus to load each vehicle evenly. The proposed model is validated on a set of six scenarios with varying complexity; each scenario is based on typical tactical situations. This paper is a contribution to the research being intensively conducted in the field of robotic systems for civilian and military applications.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-10-10T09:26:27Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231203706
- UAV search optimization for recording emerging targets with camouflaging
capabilities-
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Authors: Adil Baran Narin, John Becker, Rajan Batta
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
This paper extends the emerging target information gathering domain by introducing a camouflaging component, investigating the benefit of using multiple UAVs, and studying the impact of allowing re-visits. Previous work in this area addresses the UAV Orienteering Problem for target detection where targets emerge according to non-homogeneous space–time Poisson processes. Our extension considers that emerged targets will camouflage themselves to become undetectable after a period of time and nodes can be revisited. Routes for single or multiple UAVs are generated using the Team Orienteering Problem with Time Windows and evaluated using simulation. In addition, a framework is developed for comparing routes, and the value added by increasing the solving time is investigated. Our computational testing reveals increasing the number of time windows used increases the expected route value. A factorial analysis is conducted which indicates the network topology, the number of time windows used, and the coefficient of variation for camouflage time generally have significant effects on the expected number of targets detected regardless of the number of UAVs used. In addition, increasing the amount of time spent solving the problem does not always increase the number of expected target detected.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-10-10T09:22:27Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231203020
- Effects of datalink target data on air-to-air missile performance
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Authors: John Öström, Timo Sailaranta, Kai Virtanen
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Modern air-to-air missiles rely on data updated via a datalink about the position and velocity of a target until their own seeker can lock on to the target. The quality of the datalink target data depends on the errors of position and velocity updates, delay of these updates and lost updates. This paper introduces a simulation framework for analyzing the utilization of this data. The framework consists of models describing the target, the missile, and the generation of the datalink target updates. The versatile simulation experiments presented in the paper analyze the effects of the quality of the datalink data on the performance of different air-to-air missiles. The measure of performance is the probability of kill. The results of the simulations imply that the quality of the final updates before attempting the transition to using the missile’s seeker have the largest effect on the performance. Unless a large percentage of the target updates are lost or the seeker’s lock on to the target is delayed, the missile can typically get within a lethal miss distance of the target. The framework presented in this paper is suitable for evaluating the performance of all types of guided weapons.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-09-27T07:47:50Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231200026
- Modeling fog and friction in military enterprise
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Authors: Rodrick Wallace
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-08-28T11:29:56Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231195904
- Adapting military doctrine in the shadow of the future
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Authors: Todd C Lehmann
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Strategic competition creates significant evolutionary pressures on conventional militaries to improve their doctrines and overall military effectiveness. Why are some militaries more effective at evolving their doctrine than others' This paper develops a theory which argues that complex security environments force militaries to optimize their organizations for the commitment horizon they possess for a security issue. This optimization drives militaries to take on particular organizational characteristics, such as the amount of delegation and the tolerance for experimenting with new tactics, which affect their performance in systematic ways as a result. Using an agent-based model, this study evaluates the theory by simulating different organizational characteristics and evaluating how doctrinal effectiveness changes based on different commitment horizons. Results from the simulations suggest a typology of militaries according to their commitment horizon. Contrary to existing arguments that military effectiveness is determined by a particular set of strategies or by a favorable military culture, the results also suggest that doctrinal effectiveness follows a U-shaped curve as the commitment horizon increases. To illustrate the logic of the model, this study describes the typology and its implications.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-08-04T12:21:29Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231189286
- Modeling of Russian–Ukrainian war based on fuzzy cognitive map with
genetic tuning-
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Authors: Alexander Rotshtein, Brian A Polin, Denys I Katielnikov, Neskorodieva Tetiana
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict is considered as a dynamic system, whose variables are factors affecting the losses of the Russian army and the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used for modeling, that is, a directed graph whose vertices are model variables, and the weights of arcs are the degrees of positive and negative influences of variables on each other. The following factors influencing the losses of the Russian army and the threat of a nuclear strike were selected: resistance of the Ukrainian army, support of Ukraine with weapons, economic sanctions against Russia, opposition to the Russian government and its self-preservation instinct. The degrees of the influence of factors on each other and on the possibility of using nuclear weapons are evaluated by experts using fuzzy terms, which correspond to numeric values. To adjust the FCM, a genetic algorithm is used to select the degrees of influence of factors that minimize the discrepancy between the simulation results and expert estimations. The obtained FCM is used for scenario modeling of the conflict according to the “what if” scheme and ranking of factors according to their degree of influence on the level of nuclear threat.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-08-04T12:09:50Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231184900
- Decision-making in the shadow of strategic competition costs
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Authors: Karen E Albert
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
In today’s current climate of near-peer conflict, it is important to understand the dynamics of strategic competition. Understanding these dynamics will improve decision-making in this environment, which is often called the gray zone of conflict. I use a two-stage simultaneous move game to study the state of strategic competition. The simulation of this model reveals two dynamics through which strategic competition can be managed. The first is the probability of winning a confrontation. The second is the cost of actions. As the cost of more-aggressive actions increases relative to the cost of less-aggressive actions, then even with higher chances of winning a confrontation, players are incentivized to choose less-aggressive actions. Increasing costs of the most-aggressive actions, but not the less-aggressive ones, offers decision-makers a second avenue through which they can encourage less-aggressive competition, which is less likely to instigate a full crisis or lead to war.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-07-24T10:53:46Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231186411
- Multiple UAVs on a shared tether: Use cases, modeling, and probabilistic
path planning-
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Authors: James Humann, Michael Equi, Natalie Link, Perla Latorre-Suarez
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
We analyze the concept of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on a shared tether (MUST), where the UAVs act as control nodes for the shape of the tether, enabling the system to maneuver around obstacles without tangling or colliding for increased flexibility compared with single-tethered UAVs. MUST use cases are gathered from stakeholders in the military, public safety, and commercial domains. We present a model for the tether shape to use in collision checking and a model for the interactions among tether weight, size, and power, which we exercise to determine the maximum tether segment sizes. We apply three probabilistic path-planning algorithms from the literature to MUSTs, using a novel local planner and constraint set. In simulation, we show that probabilistic planners are a feasible approach to path planning for MUSTs with curved tether segments. We also show the first manual piloting modality of MUSTs.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-07-12T06:34:53Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231185588
- RETRACTED: “Determination of integral indicators characterizing the
possibility of accommodating the evacuated population in the territory of
the Republic of Kazakhstan”-
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Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-07-05T12:27:59Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231186854
- Back to the basics: international relations, intelligence, and strategic
competition-
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Authors: Cathryn Quantic Thurston
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
As United States foreign policy returns to a focus on great power competition, it is worth reviewing the fundamental theories associated with understanding the threat and its impact on state relations. The social science fields of international relations (IR) and security studies provide the foundational theory and associated concepts for strategic intelligence analysis in this area. The paper addresses four broad theories (realism, liberalism, economic structuralism, and constructivism) and illustrates their impact on policymakers and intelligence analysts as they craft strategy. The author argues for a more explicit inclusion of IR theories, frameworks, and methods in strategic intelligence analysis.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-07-04T04:53:28Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231185363
- Developing a Blast Injury Modeling Capability: Application of Concepts
from the Defense M&S Domain-
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Authors: Ryan Byrne, Nichole Davis, Raj Gupta, Anthony Santago, Andreas Tolk
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Increases in computational power have contributed to growing interest in using modeling and simulation (M&S) to better understand and address blast injury for US service members. The development of an M&S capability that can comprehensively simulate human injury, lethality, and impairment due to blast injury threats in the military environment requires a large, coordinated integration of many models and simulations. This contribution describes how various lessons learned from the defense M&S domain were used to support the future development of an envisioned Modeling Capability for blast injury by providing simulation functionality for simulation-based experimentation. It first addresses conceptually the interoperability challenges when more than one simulation can be or must be applied and possibly composed for the experiment. This leads to the development of a proposed concept of operations for the application of the Modeling Capability and the development of a framework of services needed to allow the identification of an applicable simulation solution, selecting the subset of those simulations, composing them for the experiment, and assessing the results. As a nascent endeavor, anticipated challenges for implementing these concepts are discussed, leveraging lessons learned regarding interoperability, composability, use of services, repositories, and development of simulation compositions to conduct simulation-based experiments.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-07-04T04:51:35Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231184258
- RETRACTED: “Integrated methodology for substantiation of the rational
district placement of the evacuated population”-
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Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-06-09T12:33:57Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231183279
- RETRACTED: “Multicriteria analysis of firefighter routes in buildings in
the case of a fire”-
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Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-06-09T12:33:27Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231183295
- The lethality paradox: Goodhart’s Law and the challenge of measuring
lethality-
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Authors: Adam T Biggs, Joseph A Hamilton, Greg Huffman, Rachel R Markwald
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Military performance must be evaluated, and one of the most critical concepts to measure involves the lethal capabilities of a military force. However, there are multiple challenges that complicate any accurate performance assessment, including theoretical issues of measurement due to statistical irregularities and practical limitations due to the military context. Here, we describe the lethality paradox, which states that measuring lethality could be a self-defeating exercise despite its necessity. Specifically, the value of any collected metric may be inherently reduced by the act of measurement while, also, creating operational vulnerabilities for a military force. This paradox is conceived as an extension of Goodhart’s Law and incorporates the same challenges of a personnel gaming a set standard rather than developing the skill set supposedly measured by this standard. Our discussion identifies the limitations and applications of Goodhart’s Law to lethality while also concluding with several proposed solutions to different paradoxical challenges.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-06-03T05:08:47Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231165527
- Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and
medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup-
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Authors: Joseph Canoy, Robert Bettinger
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-05-26T06:23:21Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231163868
- A stochastic jump model applied to collaborative queue-based high energy
laser defense-
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Authors: Mitchell M Kracman
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
High energy lasers (HELs) are evolving to provide an effective solution for air and missile defense. The emergence of this technology comes at a similar time to the development of cooperative and collaborative defense systems that collect and communicate data to inform decisions. This paper proposes a stochastic jump method for modeling the performance of networked HELs, defending against aerial threats which follow a queueing methodology. By drawing on an existing method that quantifies performance using the sum of sojourn times in a stochastic jump process, the model can predict the probability of survival when multiple effectors are tasked in defending against an arbitrary number of threats. The model can be applied more generally to processes with both waiting time–dependent service and finite existence. Furthermore, a new HEL counteraction probability model is developed to enable the demonstration and comparison of three different system collaboration methods in a future warfare application. Results suggest the prevailing superimposing laser strategy may be less effective than simple one-to-one allocation of lasers to threats. There may also be merit in targeting separate components of a threat’s structure.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-05-03T05:14:15Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231161092
- Benefits of using blended generative adversarial network images to augment
classification model training data sets-
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Authors: Benjamin J McCloskey, Bruce A Cox, Lance Champagne, Trevor J Bihl
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Object detection algorithms have reached nearly superhuman levels within the last decade; however, these algorithms require large diverse training data sets to ensure their operational performance matches performance demonstrated during testing. The collection and human labeling of such data sets can be expensive and, in some cases, such as Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance of rare events it may not even be feasible. This research proposes a novel method for creating additional variability within the training data set by utilizing multiple models of generative adversarial networks producing both high- and low-quality synthetic images of vehicles and inserting those images alongside images of real vehicles into real backgrounds. This research demonstrates a 17.90% increase in mean absolute percentage error, on average, compared to the YOLOv4-Tiny Model trained on the original non-augmented training set as well as a 14.44% average improvement in the average intersection over union rate. In addition, our research adds to a small, but growing, body of literature indicating that the inclusion of low-quality images into training data sets is beneficial to the performance of computer vision models.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-04-29T11:14:00Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231170225
- Generating realistic two-line element sets for notional space vehicles and
constellations-
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Authors: Troy Rockwood, Greg Steeger, Matthew Stein
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
As space becomes increasingly populated with new satellites and systems, modeling and simulation of existing and future systems becomes more important. The two-line element set has been the standard format for sharing data about a satellite’s orbit since the 1960s, and well-developed algorithms can predict the future location of satellites based on these data. In order to simulate potential future systems, especially when mixed with existing systems, data must be generated to represent the desired orbits. We present a means to create two-line element sets with parameters that closely resemble real satellite behavior and rely on a novel approach to calculate the mean motion for even greater accuracy.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-04-13T05:57:08Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231166140
- SPACE: a new modeling tool for supporting layout design of military
command and control spaces-
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Authors: Wenbi Wang
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Military command and control spaces are complex work environments and critical facilities for a military mission. This paper describes a newly developed modeling tool called SPACE (Spatial layout Planning and Analysis for Communication Effectiveness) for assisting layout design of such workplaces. As a Human Factors tool, SPACE provides common functions required for workspace modeling, including rapid workspace prototyping, versatile design visualization, and algorithmic layout assessment. One of its key features is a layout evaluation algorithm that enables objective assessment of floor plans based on their impact on operator communication and interaction efficiency. In this paper, the main functionalities of SPACE are explained using a case study where models were constructed to compare three layout options for a Joint Intelligence Center. The results revealed the pros and cons of each layout in facilitating team interaction involving different sensory domains. While all three layouts were deemed acceptable, an inward-facing boardroom style design was predicted to be optimal as it best balanced the need for direct sightline access, non-technology-mediated verbal conversations, and the physical effort associated with movement to collaborators’ workstations. This study demonstrated the usefulness of modeling and simulation to provide quantitative auditable data for supporting evidence-based decision-making in military system design.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-04-13T05:54:08Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231165310
- Simulating quantum key distribution in fiber-based quantum networks
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Authors: Dashiell LP Vitullo, Trevor Cook, Daniel E Jones, Lisa M Scott, Andrew Toth, Brian T Kirby
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Quantum networks exploit the unique properties of quantum mechanics to enable communication and networking tasks unavailable to existing distributed classical systems. Recently, the research community has focused considerable effort on the simulation of large-scale quantum networks with the ultimate goal of understanding their general properties, developing technical standards, and estimating their expected performance. However, comparatively little effort has been spent considering how quantum networks may impact tactical scenarios of military relevance where both quantum and classical resources may be severely constrained. Here, we develop a custom framework, called QuanTACT, for quantum network simulation explicitly designed for future integration into existing tactical simulation tools. In particular, our framework extends the existing quantum networking tool, SQUANCH, to include channel models required to simulate deployed fiber environments. Furthermore, we implement the additional subroutines needed to simulate entanglement-based quantum key distribution (QKD) and use published results from various field-deployed QKD experiments to benchmark the performance of our framework.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-04-07T10:54:34Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231154929
- A decision support system for multi-stakeholder exploration of the airship
design space-
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Authors: DC Richards, John L Salmon, Tevin J Dickerson, Christopher A Mattson, William J Neff
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Although there have been oscillations in airship interest since their use in the early 1900s, technological advancements and the need for more flexible and environmentally friendly transportation modes have caused a stream of study and surge in airship development in recent years. For companies and governments to understand how airships can be incorporated into their fleets to fulfill new or existing mission types, system design space exploration is an important step in understanding airships, their uses, and their design parameters. A decision support system (DSS), Design Exploration of Lighter-Than-Air Systems (DELTAS), was developed to help stakeholders with this task. DELTAS allows users to design airships and missions to determine how a design will perform in the scenario. As airships are sensitive to elevation and altitude, wind and terrain can also be studied to see how they may affect a mission scenario. Simulations can also be run for a given mission to find the Pareto-optimal designs for user-defined ranges of high-level airship design parameters. A case study is provided that demonstrates how DELTAS can be used to explore the airship design space for a specified mission. This case study shows how a design of experiments is important to more thoroughly cover the design space and to find and understand the relationships between airship design variables that lead to optimal mission times and costs.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-04-03T05:10:33Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231164416
- A survey of fatigue measures and models
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Authors: Antonio Laverghetta, Minh Tran, Alec Braynen, Stephen Steinle, Bekhzodbek Moydinboyev, Heba Daas, John Licato
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
In long, stressful operational periods, military personnel face numerous challenges that may compromise their performance, an especially important one being fatigue. Current literature supports the view that behavioral, physiological, and cognitive factors are all predictive of the level of fatigue in individuals. However, much of the work on modeling fatigue has taken a narrow approach, relying only on a handful of modalities to measure fatigue. This paper aims to fill the void by providing an extensive overview of the current literature on both computationally measuring and modeling fatigue. We provide up-to-date and practical advice on which models are best suited for different situations and highlight directions for future work.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-03-14T10:30:53Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231158580
- Mathematical modeling of strategic behavior: the Battle of Midway, 1942
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Authors: Konstantina Founta, Loukas Zachilas
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
In this paper, an innovative discrete dynamical model is presented, which is used to predict the kind of strategic behavior the participants should adopt to win a battle. For study purposes, a computer model is developed to reveal the most critical factors that strategically affect combat and the relationship of dependence between the warring parties. Besides, it can predict the outcome of a battle under specific scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed dynamical system is applied in Midway’s air–naval battle, which was one of the most decisive battles of World War II (WWII). It was a significant turning point in the history of naval warfare in the Pacific Ocean since the victory of the United States marked an end to Japanese expansionist policy, and these are the reason this battle was chosen. The numerical results of the analysis were presented, and the key factors (e.g., persons, decisions, and weather conditions represented by the critical values of model parameters) were highlighted, defining the outcome of the conflict.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-03-07T10:36:49Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231160182
- Numerical investigation of modern threats for ground vehicles with
emphasis on fragmentation behavior during hard kill scenario-
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Authors: Morten Rikard Jensen, Philip Mulligan, Kshitiz Khanna
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
The research covered in this paper is related to numerical modeling of realistic threats. The final goal is to simulate the effects from the impact of an RPG-7 projectile on a GAZ-2975 Tigr infantry vehicle protected by an ERA. The fragmentation that results from the impact is studied. Leading up to the final model, several models are created, starting with an explosively driven cylinder to study fragmentation modeling. The next step was modeling the setup defined by NATO STANAG 4526 which was used to characterize the impact from an RPG-7. Based upon these results, a generic RPG-7 model was developed which impacted an ERA, modeled as two plates with a layer of high explosive (HE) between them. All models ran successfully to normal termination, and they showed how numerical tools can be used to describe and investigate these very complicated events.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-02-10T09:01:18Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129231153637
- Modeling efficiency and safety on an aircraft carrier flight deck
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Authors: Mary L Cummings, Songpo Li, Hong Han, Carlos Aguilar
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Aircraft carrier flight decks present high-risk mission-critical environments that need to be both efficient and safe. The concept of optimal manning, having just enough people to do the job safely and efficiently, is paramount in order to put the least amount of people at risk while not sacrificing mission effectiveness. To this end, an agent-based model, the optimal manning simulation (OMS) was developed, which specifically looks at the launch process of the flight deck in order to quantify the risk and efficiency of people working on the flight deck. OMS models different classes of crew members on the flight deck, aircraft, and resources like catapults. OMS measures safety through collisions or near-collisions of people and aircraft, as well as how long it takes to execute a launch cycle, the primary efficiency metric. Validation and sensitivity analyses provide confidence in OMS results. To demonstrate its utility, OMS is also used to predict how the future introduction of unmanned aerial vehicles could impact staffing and performance measures.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-02-02T06:41:10Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129221150939
- Accelerated point set registration method
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Authors: Ryan M Raettig, James D Anderson, Scott L Nykl, Laurence D Merkle
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
In computer vision and robotics, point set registration is a fundamental issue used to estimate the relative position and orientation (pose) of an object in an environment. In a rapidly changing scene, this method must be executed frequently and in a timely manner, or the pose estimation becomes outdated. The point registration method is a computational bottleneck of a vision-processing pipeline. For this reason, this paper focuses on speeding up a widely used point registration method, the iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm. In addition, the ICP algorithm is transformed into a massively parallel algorithm and mapped onto a vector processor to realize a speedup of approximately an order of magnitude. Finally, we provide algorithmic and run-time analysis.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-02-02T06:39:09Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129221150454
- Development and assessment of a resilient telecoms system
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Authors: George Gallarno, Jeremy Muniz, Gregory S Parnell, Edward A Pohl, Jingxian Wu
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders during natural disasters to coordinate life-saving and life-preserving efforts. Ensuring resilience of the emergency telecommunication infrastructure is of critical importance for regions with an increased likelihood of natural disasters. We developed an integrated modeling framework for assessing emergency telecommunication systems. The framework used performance models to assess coverage and surge capabilities for a given system architecture. The performance models assess the telecom system value using a multiple objective decision analysis value model with stake-holder and technology performance measures. After constructing a life cycle cost model for emergency telecommunication systems, we conducted an illustrative value versus cost trade-off analysis using three alternative decision frames. The decision analysis framework allows for exploration of the system design tradespace so that decision-makers can select the best emergency telecom architecture using a defensible and transparent, performance-driven methodology.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-01-11T10:59:51Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129221143791
- An experimental intervention to investigate user perceptions of computer
versus manual board wargame-
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Authors: Jeremy Smith, Trevor Ringrose, Stephen Barker
Abstract: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Ahead of Print.
Analysis of the literature related to wargaming identifies a requirement for the perception of immersion and engagement in wargaming. The references generally indicate that the computer is less able to facilitate collective engagement than a manual system; however, there is as yet little empirical evidence to support this. There are also suggestions that players perceive manual games differently to a computer wargame. An experiment, derived from the previous analysis, was performed to address the research question: Is there a discernible difference between the levels of players’ engagement in computer wargames versus manual wargames' The experiment provides empirical evidence that there is a difference in players’ engagement with a computer wargame compared to a manual game, in particular with the manual game providing greater engagement with other players. Hence, if engagement between players is to be encouraged and regarded as an important aspect of a wargame for defense applications, then this provides evidence that the manual approach can indeed be better.
Citation: The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation
PubDate: 2023-01-02T06:18:58Z
DOI: 10.1177/15485129221141711
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