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Environmental Research : Climate
Number of Followers: 8  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 2752-5295
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  • Human-induced climate change has decreased wheat production in northern
           Kazakhstan

    • Authors: Paula Romanovska; Sabine Undorf, Bernhard Schauberger, Aigerim Duisenbekova Christoph Gornott
      First page: 031005
      Abstract: Northern Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter, contributing to food security in Central Asia and beyond. However, wheat yields fluctuate and low-producing years occur frequently. It is currently unclear to what extent human-induced climate change contributes to this. The most severe low-producing year in this century was in 2010, which had severe consequences for the food security of wheat-importing countries. Here, we present a climate impact attribution study that quantifies the impact of human-induced climate change on the average wheat production and associated economic revenues in northern Kazakhstan in the 21st century and on the likelihood of a low-production year like 2010. The study uses bias-adjusted counterfactual and factual climate model data from two large ensembles of latest-generation climate models as input to a statistical subnational yield model. We consider the climate data and the yield model as fit for purpose as first, the factual climate simulations represent the observations, second, the out-of-sample validation of the yield model performs reasonably well with a mean R2 of 0.54, and third, the results are robust under the performed sensitivity tests. Human-induced climate change has had a critical impact on wheat production, specifically through increases in daily-minimum temperatures and extreme heat. This has resulted in a decrease in yields during 2000–2019 by approximately 6.2%–8.2% (uncertainty range of two climate models) and an increased likelihood of the 2010 low-production event by 1.5–4.7 times (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). During 2000–2019, human-induced climate change caused economic losses estimated at between 96 and 180 million USD per year (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). These results highlight the necessity for ambitious global mitigation efforts and measures to adapt wheat production to increasing temperatures, ensuring regional and global food security.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-17T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f7
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events
           depends on the QBO phase

    • Authors: Xiuyuan Ding; Gang Chen Gudrun Magnusdottir
      First page: 031006
      Abstract: Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been linked to surface cold extremes over North America, but little is known whether the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) plays a role in this linkage. Here, by comparing strong stratospheric wave events during the westerly phase (wQBO) with those during the easterly phase (eQBO), we show that the cooling signature following strong wave events depends on the QBO phase in observations. During wQBO, strong wave events are followed by an increased risk of North American cold extremes and a vertical structure shift from a westward phase tilt to an eastward tilt. However, strong wave events under eQBO do not change the cold risk nor alter the vertical tilt. We further examine this dependence on QBO in QBO-resolving climate models, finding that the cooling signature of strong wave events in models is largely insensitive to QBO phases. This insensitivity is suggested to be linked to model biases in the stratospheric wave representation.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-17T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f6
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • Indigenous, ethnic, and racial diversity and climate justice: New
           Zealand’s climate adaptation policies and policy approaches

    • Authors: Iresh Jayawardena
      First page: 035004
      Abstract: This research paper interrogates the extent to which indigenous, ethnic, and racial diversity is substantively integrated into climate justice discussions with a focus on New Zealand’s climate change adaptation policies. A qualitative research design is used, employing a documentary analysis and summative content analysis to scrutinise New Zealand climate change adaptation policies and their responsiveness to indigenous, ethnic and racial diversity within the ambit of climate justice. This study aims to measure the extent to which these policies promote inclusive and equitable climate adaptation outcomes. This study makes a significant contribution to the nuanced understanding of climate justice research, particularly regarding indigenous and ethnic minority communities. The study is expected to contribute to the existing knowledge base and inform the formulation of inclusive policies that integrate the diverse perspectives of these communities into climate adaptation and policy-making processes. The research findings highlight existing gaps and emphasise the importance of incorporating indigenous, ethnic, and racial diversity into policy development and implementation. The aim is to shape climate adaptation strategies that are representative of aware of insights from various communities in contemporary cities.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-06T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad50fd
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • Western Europe’s extreme July 2019 heatwave in a warmer world

    • Authors: Hylke de Vries; Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Bert van Ulft Wim de Rooy
      First page: 035005
      Abstract: Summertime heatwaves are extreme events with a large societal impact. Intensity, duration and spatial extent, all heatwave properties are projected to increase in a warming world, implying that summers that qualified as extreme in the past will become increasingly normal. In this paper we quantify how the changes play out for the July 2019 European heatwave that shattered temperature records throughout Western Europe. We combine a storyline approach with ensemble Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) and high-resolution dynamical downscaling. The downscaling is done with a regional climate model (RACMO2, 12 km resolution) and a convection-permitting model (HCLIM-AROME, 2.5 km resolution). Under PGW the maximum temperature during the heatwave rises 1.5 to 2.5 times faster than the global mean, implying that even at moderate warming levels the heatwave impact changes are tangible. Moreover, there is no sign that the increase in the maximum temperature levels off at higher warming levels, implying that at +4K above present-day temperatures could reach 50 ∘C. During heatwaves cities become islands of heat where daily maxima and night-time minima are up to 5 ∘C higher than in rural areas as we show in ultra-high resolution HCLIM-AROME simulations at 150 m resolution.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-10T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad519f
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • Response of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone climatology to
           climate intervention with stratospheric aerosol injection

    • Authors: Michelle Simões Reboita; João Gabriel Martins Ribeiro, Natália Machado Crespo, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Romaric C Odoulami, Windmanagda Sawadogo John Moore
      First page: 035006
      Abstract: Little is known about how climate intervention through stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) may affect the climatology of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones under warming scenarios. To address this knowledge gap, we tracked extratropical cyclones from 2015 to 2099 in a set of projections of three international projects: the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar Climate Intervention on the Earth System with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE), the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS), and the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP/G6sulfur). Comparisons were performed between no-SAI and SAI scenarios as well as between different timeslices and their reference period (2015–2024). Among the findings, both no-SAI and SAI project a decrease in cyclone frequency towards the end of the century although weaker under SAI scenarios. On the other hand, cyclones tend to be stronger under no-SAI scenarios while keeping their intensity more similar to the reference period under SAI scenarios. This means that under SAI scenarios the climatology of cyclones is less affected by global warming than under no-SAI. Other features of these systems, such as travelling distance, lifetime, and mean velocity show small differences between no-SAI and SAI scenarios and between reference and future periods.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-19T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad519e
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • Increasing fluctuations in the Arctic summer sea ice cover are expected
           with future global warming

    • Authors: Anna Poltronieri; Nils Bochow, Niklas Boers Martin Rypdal
      First page: 035007
      Abstract: The loss of Arctic sea ice (ASI) represents a major transformation in the Arctic region, impacting regional and global climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic structures. Observational and reanalysis data have consistently shown a notable shift in polar environmental conditions over recent decades, marked by a substantial reduction in the ASI area and a rise in the variability in its coverage and distribution. Utilizing data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase, our study reveals a consistent pattern highlighting a fundamental shift in ASI dynamics preceding total loss. We observe increasing fluctuations in the September ASI area as the threshold for an ice-free Arctic is approached across various scenarios and models. This pattern is particularly concentrated in the Central Arctic (CA) sub-region. Spatial analyses reveal increasing variance along the CA’s northern coastlines, accompanied by a substantial increase in open water coverage, underscoring the shift from stable to highly variable ice conditions in this region. Additionally, our findings suggest a potential link between increased ASI fluctuations and variability in surface wind speeds. These specific results underscore the urgency of multidisciplinary approaches in addressing the challenges posed by ASI variability, with implications for marine ecosystems, Indigenous communities, and navigational safety.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-10T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad519d
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • The future extreme precipitation systems of orographically locked diurnal
           convection: the benefits of using large-eddy simulation ensembles

    • Authors: Wei-Ting Chen; Yu-Hung Chang, Chien-Ming Wu Huai-Yi Huang
      First page: 035008
      Abstract: The precipitation hotspot of the orographically locked convection highly depends on the interactions among physical processes governing local energetics and cloud dynamics. Accurately estimating the future change of these hotspots will require a model with sufficient spatial resolution as well as an appropriate representation of the critical physical processes. In this study, ensembles of TaiwanVVM large-eddy simulations (Δx = 500 m) were designed to capture the summertime diurnal convection in Taiwan when local circulation dominates. The precipitation hotspots identified by long-term observations are well represented by the present-day ensemble simulations with appropriate environment variabilities. A pseudo global warming experiment is carried out to identify changes in convective structures, which results in local rainfall changes. Under the scenario of 3 K uniform warming with conserved relative humidity, the changes in the thermodynamic environment feature an overall higher convective available potential energy and a small decrease in convective inhibition (CIN), owing to the marked increase in low-level water vapor in the marine boundary layer. The results show that mean precipitation and the occurrence of extreme convective systems (ECSs) increase, with hotspots over mountains expanding toward the foothills and plains. The response in cloud dynamics leads to more short-duration, intense rainfall events. The tracking of ECSs with maximum rainfall exceeding 100 mm h−1 reveals more numerous short-lived ECSs (lifetime
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-20T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad557d
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • Processes and principles for producing credible climate change attribution
           messages: lessons from Australia and New Zealand

    • Authors: Michael Grose; Pandora Hope, James Risbey, Camille J Mora, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Andrew King, Luke J Harrington, Suzanne Rosier, Richard Matear, Mitchell Black, Dáithi Stone, David Frame, Roseanna C McKay, Hamish Ramsay, Linjing Zhou Gen Tolhurst
      First page: 035009
      Abstract: Extreme event attribution (EEA) information is increasingly in demand from climate services. EEA messages can: raise awareness about the effect climate change has already imposed, inform climate change liability conversations, and be combined with climate projections to inform adaptation. However, due to limitations in observations, models and methods, there are barriers towards operationalising EEA in practice. Operational services will need EEA to be done transparently and using preset formats. Here we review recent experience and practice in EEA in Australia and New Zealand with a view to inform the design of an EEA component of climate services. We present a flow chart of the processes involved, noting particular care is needed on the trigger, event definition, and climate model evaluation, with effective stage gates. We also promote the use of tailored causal network diagrams as a standard tool to inform an EEA study and communicate results, with particular care needed for messages on events with lower confidence or complex sets of influences, including tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones. We suggest that extending EEA to impact attribution is essential for making EEA messages salient but requires an uplift in forming interdisciplinary teams and in granular exposure and vulnerability datasets and is likely to raise new interdisciplinary methodological questions. Finally, we suggest communication of EEA messages can learn more from its origins in medical epidemiology.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-24T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f5
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • The effects of climate and climate change on electric vehicle charging
           demand in Toronto, Canada

    • Authors: Daniel B Henrique; Xuesong Zhang, An Wang, Elise Lagacé, Kyup Lee, Paul J Kushner I Daniel Posen
      First page: 035010
      Abstract: Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) influence total and peak electricity demand, but few studies account for climate when studying these effects. This study quantifies BEV charging demand in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area using a detailed trip level approach, accounting for the effect of present and future temperatures on BEV energy consumption. The impact of temperature on charging demand was largest in winter. In 2019, charging demand increases by 52% on an average January day, and up to 82% on extreme days (relative to mild weather conditions). At 30% penetration, BEVs increase peak demand on January’s coldest day by 600–3600 MW (3%–5%), of which 300–700 MW is driven by temperature, depending on the charging scenario. Climate change introduces small changes, increasing summer and decreasing winter charging demand. These results highlight the importance of adjusting for regional climate variation and temperature extremes when analyzing the impact of BEVs on the grid.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-20T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f4
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
  • Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by
           constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and
           observations

    • Authors: Markus G Donat; Rashed Mahmood, Pep Cos, Pablo Ortega Francisco Doblas-Reyes
      First page: 035013
      Abstract: Projections of near-term climate change in the next few decades are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Approaches to reduce this uncertainty by constraining the phasing of climate variability based on large ensembles of climate simulations have recently been developed. These approaches select those ensemble members that are in closer agreement with sea surface temperature patterns from either observations or initialized decadal predictions. Previous studies demonstrated the benefits of these constraints for projections up to 20 years into the future, but these studies applied the constraints to different ensembles of climate simulations, which prevents a consistent comparison of methods or identification of specific advantages of one method over another. Here we apply several methods to constrain internal variability phases, using either observations or decadal predictions as constraining reference, to an identical multi-model ensemble consisting of 311 simulations from 37 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and compare their forecast qualities. We show that constraining based on both observations and decadal predictions significantly enhances the skill of 10 and 20-year projections for near-surface temperatures in some regions, and that constraining based on decadal predictions leads to the largest added value in terms of probabilistic skill. We further explore the sensitivity to different implementations of the constraint that focus on the patterns of either internal variability alone or a combination of internal variability and long-term changes in response to forcing. Looking into the near-term future, all variations of the constraints suggest an accelerated warming of large parts of the Northern Hemisphere for the period 2020–2039, in comparison to the unconstrained CMIP6 ensemble.
      Citation: Environmental Research: Climate
      PubDate: 2024-06-24T23:00:00Z
      DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 3 (2024)
       
 
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