|
|
- Reasons for sedentarism of shrinking cities in public opinion (evidence
from Volgograd city)
Abstract: Population and Economics 7(1): 77-89
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.7.e87602
Authors : Olga E. Akimova, Sergei K. Volkov, Evgeni G. Efimov : The shrinking of cities has become a mass phenomenon, both in foreign countries and in Russia, since the end of the twentieth century. Until now, the question of why some old-industrial cities succeed in the modern global network of comparative advantages and specializations, while others fail and face population decline, seems to be of no small importance. The article attempts to fill the existing gap in the study of the reasons forcing residents of shrinking cities to stay in them. They were defined as “reasons for sedentarism”, which the authors propose to consider as circumstances that keep residents from moving to another city/region/ country in the presence of stable migration intentions. In order to identify the causes of sedentarism, the authors conducted a survey of students of educational institutions in the city of Volgograd and its region using an online questionnaire created on the Google Forms platform. The study used a non-random sample (the “snowball” method). The present study confirms the primacy of the economic causes of sedentarism in shrinking cities and the need to implement an adequate and systematic economic policy that promotes the innovative development of territories. The analysis of the answers shows that the second most important reasons, following material ones, that keep students of shrinking cities from changing their place of residence, are socio-psychological: the desire to preserve social ties (family, friends, relatives) and the fear of changing the situation. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 22:15:15 +030
- Estimating the effects of legalizing drug e-commerce
Abstract: Population and Economics 7(1): 90-115
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.7.e96523
Authors : Stanislav V. Spektor, Karina A. Ionkina : With the technological development the e-commerce channel began to spread to all sectors of the economy. In 2020 with the introduction of sanitary and epidemiological restrictions because of COVID-19 pandemic, many countries lifted the ban of drug e-commerce. Such changes are interesting from the point of view of health economics, and the opening of this sales channel significantly reduces transaction costs and increases the physical availability of drugs, especially in regions with low population density. The article attempts to evaluate the effects of legalization of online sales of drugs on price level and the degree of market concentration (the concentration of the 5 largest companies is used as a proxy), and also uses new methods to estimate the effects of legalizing e-commerce on drug markets. High rates of industry and drug market concentration can lead to a noticeable decrease in the availability of goods. Legalizing e-commerce can be seen as a way to reduce market concentration by facilitating market entry for small firms. The effects of lifting the ban on remote drug sales are estimated using regression analysis on panel data, cross-country matching, and synthetic control. Empirical estimates provide an overall picture of the effects of legalizing online drug sales. After allowing remote drug sales market concentration decreases, indicating a reduction in information asymmetry and switching costs. This effect is particularly important for countries with a high proportion of pensioners, for whom the switching costs are noticeably higher ceteris paribus. Allowing distance trade, due to reducing information asymmetry, drug pricing also slows down, that is, in addition to increasing physical accessibility, opening this channel also increases economic accessibility. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 19:20:36 +030
- The impact of transition to a remote work format on the mental health of
employees
Abstract: Population and Economics 7(1): 54-76
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.7.e90505
Authors : Marina O. Gorshkova, Polina S. Lebedeva : The subject of employee mental well-being has recently been discussed in the Russian corporate world and now it is a hot topic. According to the survey results, most domestic companies consider the problem of employee burnout to be important and recognize its negative impact on the staff, while over half are reluctant to do anything about it. However, for those companies that started thinking about implementing employee psychological wellness programs before 2019, the pandemic accelerated the process. The purpose of our study is to identify the causal relationship between the shift to remote working in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic and the mental state of workers. In-depth interviews with HR managers of the Russian branches of six large international companies and econometric analysis were used in this work. The research reveals that the abrupt shift to work from home (WFH) had a negative impact on employee mental state, which forced the companies to promptly implement new measures to support their workers. Over time, the staff was able to adapt to the new environment, and the opposite effect was observed: during the subsequent waves, those who were at WFH felt more psychologically stable compared to those transferred to a remote format later. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 16:10:13 +030
- An Econometric Assessment of the “Punishment” for Singlehood in
Russia: Risks or New Opportunities in Life'
Abstract: Population and Economics 7(1): 33-53
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.7.e89168
Authors : Rafael A. Akhtemzyanov : The paper focuses on the effect of having a marriage partner on health and well-being of Russians as compared with their single compatriots. The health status variation between those who are married and those who are single can be explained both by the protective effect of marriage and marriage selection. Using the Cox proportional hazards model on the self-perceived health data from the RLMS 2004-2019 individual questionnaire, while controlling for socioeconomic factors, lifestyle, and living arrangements, we have found that the protective effect of marriage is non‑existent in men, except for a short-term impact of marital transitions. Women are “punished” for their singlehood due to a lack of a partner in their young age, or being in an unregistered union, or the loss of a breadwinner spouse at the age of 50 to 64. In contrast, women over 65 benefit from singlehood. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Mon, 27 Mar 2023 18:03:18 +030
- The effect of creating a single EAEU labor market on the level of
financial well-being of migrant households (exemplified by the Republic of
Armenia)
Abstract: Population and Economics 7(1): 1-32
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.7.e87175
Authors : Valeriia G. Oksinenko : The article analyzes the effect of creating a single EAEU labor market on the financial well-being of households in countries that mainly send migrants, exemplified by the Republic of Armenia. Based on data of the Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2012-2017 and using the difference-in-differences method, the study has identified a significant causal relationship between the country’s accession to the EAEU and reduced income gap between households with migrants in Russia and households with migrants in other countries and regions or without migrants at all. Thus, after Armenia’s accession to the EAEU, income of the households sending migrants to Russia became 6-11% higher than the one of the households sending migrants to other countries, despite the fact that until 2015 there was hardly any difference in income; the income gap with the households without migrants decreased from 6% in 2012-2014 to 2% in 2015-2016. The confirmed positive impact of Armenia’s accession to the EAEU makes it possible to consider it a tool for reducing poverty in the Republic of Armenia as well as recommend to continue development and harmonization of the labor migration policy of the EAUE member states. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Mon, 27 Mar 2023 18:02:03 +030
- Individual insurance products: is there a real choice for Russians'
Abstract: Population and Economics 7(1): 1-20
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.7.e86059
Authors : Svetlana V. Shchelokova, Vladimir A. Vertogradov : The article analyzes the level of competition of insurance product offerings in the following four markets using the Russian market as an example: (1) life insurance, (2) accident and disease insurance, (3) voluntary health insurance and (4) pension insurance. The purpose of the study is to assess competitive dynamics in the insurance product markets during the period under review. Relevant data of the Expert Rating Agency for 2018-2021 were used as the study basis. The study methodology is based on the assessment of the competitive situation using the SV matrix, which is based on HTSV (level of differentiation within the dominant group) and CRSV (cumulative market share of the dominant group). The study shows that the Russian insurance market in 2018-2021 was quite diverse in terms of dominance. Most individual insurance products belong to the B4 quadrant of the SV matrix (a natural oligopoly), yet, the situation with the dominant group regarding types of insurance under study is significantly different, since the number of dominant players varies from 2 to 10, considerably affecting a real consumer choice, however, among the markets under study, there is none with low concentration or without a dominant group or dominant leader. In the VHI market, the choice is quite large, while the presence of a big dominant group of eight companies suggests formation of the two-tier companies. The top echelon sets quality standards and dominates by price, while other companies can compete with the leaders due to niche offerings and price factors. The pension insurance market is an example of a significantly reduced consumer choice: in 2018, it is in the RO quadrant with a relatively “weak” dominant group, while by 2021, a hardly differentiated oligopoly of 5 companies has been formed, controlling 95% of the market. Emerging players with the market and institutional opportunities similar to SOGAZ make significant changes in the market structure, as in the case of personal insurance market, wherein SOGAZ has absorbed the largest player, transferring the market from an oligopoly of seven companies to the actual dominance of the one. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Mon, 27 Mar 2023 18:01:48 +030
- Reproductive birth control after the coronavirus pandemic
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 178-188
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e90355
Authors : Nina E. Rusanova : Changes in measures and instruments of birth control are one of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in all countries with increased significance of reproductive components, i.e. concerning physiological capabilities of conception, gestation and childbirth. Pandemic-associated measures had diverse impacts on restrictive (aimed at reducing fertility) and expansionary (aimed at increasing fertility) methods of reproductive regulation: it did not take methods of pregnancy prevention and artificial termination of pregnancy long to adapt to the new conditions without changing the established trends, while assisted reproductive technologies, following administrative bans of the first days of mass lockdowns, demonstrated new development directions upon removal of bans. Against the background of the progress in the medical component, increasingly bringing in- vitro fertilization closer to natural conception, the scale of state funding and the number of free of charge programs for patients have increased, however, due to anti-epidemic control, cross-border reproductive care or fertility tourism, relevant for surrogacy and reproductive donation, has become more complicated. In Russia, this has intensified public discussions and contributed to further elaboration of reproductive legislation. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Sat, 31 Dec 2022 15:28:58 +020
- Spatial analysis of the spread of Covid-19 and its demographic
consequences in the regions of the South of European Russia
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 189-208
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e97380
Authors : Vladimir S. Tikunov, Vitaly S. Belozerov, Natalia A. Shchitova, Nikolai V. Sopnev : The article presents results of the multi-scale analysis of the processes of coronavirus infection spread and its impact on the demographic situation in the world, Russia and regions of the South of the European part of Russia. The methodological basis of the study was the principles of geoinformation monitoring, making it possible to process and visualize large volumes of diverse materials. The information base was statistical data from the Russian and foreign sources reflecting the spread of coronavirus infection at various spatial levels from global to regional-local. The characteristic features of changes in the parameters of the disease during its active expansion are described. The article also deals with dynamics in demographic indicators and identifies trends in their widespread deterioration. The contribution of the South of European Russia macro-region to the all-Russian Covid-19 situation is determined. Development of the coronavirus pandemic at the level of municipal districts is analyzed using individual regions as an example. The study identifies main factors of the Covid-19 pandemic development and demonstrates some of its features and consequences in the largest urban agglomerations. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Sat, 31 Dec 2022 10:23:40 +020
- From intention to action: factors of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine refusal
during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 162-177
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e90723
Authors : Dmitry V. Kislitsyn, Dmitry S. Schapov : According to results of the vaccination campaign against COVID-19, Russia has failed to reach indicators of the developed countries on vaccination coverage and is sustainably below the global average. The purpose of this article is to identify and quantify factors of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine refusal in Russia during the following periods: prior to mass vaccination campaign and upon completion of its most active phase. We use data from the two surveys conducted in January-February and November-December, 2021. In the framework of the first survey, the respondents provided answers about their intention to be vaccinated, while in the second – about actual vaccination. In addition to socio-demographic indicators of individuals, factors related to respondents’ perception of the disease and vaccine specifics, as well as their attitude towards vaccination in general, have been analyzed. The results indicate that distrust in the COVID-19 vaccine and anti-vaxxer convictions are important factors associated with both the intention to receive a vaccine and realized behavior regarding vaccination. There are significant differences across socio-demographic factors related to the intention to be vaccinated and realized behavior. This demonstrates the need to investigate factors determining behavior regarding vaccination rather than only factors affecting intention to receive a vaccine against COVID-19. The pandemic situation is significantly different from the “normal” one: the vaccination program is accompanied, among other things, by pressure on the population to encourage them to get vaccinated. The effects of this policy on the part of the state are yet to be investigated, a deeper understanding of their effect on vaccination behavior is required. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 23 Dec 2022 18:17:15 +020
- Impact of restrictive policies on lives of the elderly: lessons of the
COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 146-161
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e90298
Authors : Natalia S. Grigorieva, Tatiana V. Chubarova : The article analyzes situation with senior citizens as a special socio-demographic group of population during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to analyze the state of this group during the period under review, attitude of the elderly to restrictive policies, impact of social isolation on their physical and mental health, and overall social well-being. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the concept of active longevity and phenomenological approach in sociology. The empirical base of the study included 42 non-formalized interviews with elderly citizens aged 65 to 94 years, conducted in May-November 2020. To process the interviews, the authors used the phenomenological method of Colaizzi, which has significant potential for qualitative research, especially in cases when result are much dependable upon the respondent’s personal experience, his or her perception of events. The data obtained through the interview were structured in line with the following five main blocks, namely: attitude to policy measures that have directly affected the elderly; changes in usual way of life; limited access to medical services; perception of age as a negative factor; and organization of services to older citizens during the pandemic. The study participants have demonstrated a fairly wide range of opinions, including assessment of structural problems, direct reflection on state policy measures to curb the pandemic, description of difficulties related to adaptation to the new routine mode of life, information and communication deficiencies. The authors have identified the “pain points” in the state of the elderly during the COVID-19 pandemic: the health and social systems turned out to be unprepared to work in the crisis conditions of the new reality. Analysis of daily life of the elderly during the COVID-19 pandemic changes perception of active longevity and puts on the agenda the need for more comprehensive consideration of the needs of older citizens at the planning and implementation stage of state policy and management in social welfare and public health. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 15:00:02 +020
- Gendered Impacts of the COVID-19 in Mongolia: results from big data
research
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 123-145
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e86434
Authors : Otgontugs Banzragch, Manlaibaatar Zagdbazar, Uyanga Gankhuyag, Delgernaran Tumurtogoo, Amarbal Avirmed, Davaajargal Davaatsersen, Undral Lkhagva, Ouyntsetseg Mashir, Ganbayar Javkhlan, Batbileg Tumur, Aruinbat Galbat : Based on the big data sample, we found that during the first year of Covid-19, although per month, per person expenditures of female-headed households were higher, on average, compared with male-headed households in Mongolia, but it is not because of the gender of the household head, but because these heads of households on average have more education, smaller household sizes, and living more in urban areas. They also register their expenditures in the VAT e-receipts system more consistently, which means that male-headed households’ expenditures are underestimated. Overall, expenditure of both male- and female-headed households has increased in 2020 compared with 2019, while poverty slightly declined. The major reasons for expenditure increase and poverty decline in 2020 a rapid rollout of a fiscal stimulus with a sizable social protection component. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 15:00:01 +020
- COVID-19 and fertility intentions: a qualitative study in six regions of
Russia
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 107-122
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e93480
Authors : Konstantin I. Kazenin : The paper discusses results of a qualitative study conducted in May-June 2021 in six regions of Russia (Astrakhan region, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia, Tomsk region and Yaroslavl region) with the purpose to identify opinions on impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. Focus groups were held in these regions among childless respondents aged below 35. This allowed to observe influence of the pandemic on intentions to become first-time parents which is critically important for fertility tendencies. Although the survey regions differed considerably by fertility rate and age-specific characteristics as well as by socio-cultural characteristics, key results of the focus groups were rather similar across regions. The respondents in all regions very strictly defined income levels necessary for having a child and also stressed out the need for parents to provide positive psychological conditions for their young off-springs. Assessing their abilities to become “high-quality” parents, the informants relied almost only on their own resources, not counting much upon assistance of elder relatives. Under these views, the pandemic was perceived as a serious obstacle for the “high-quality” parenthood. The informants did not expect the state measures of support for families with children to considerably soften this effect of the pandemic. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:00:03 +020
- Life and health of labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia in the
context of the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 83-106
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e90370
Authors : Dmitry V. Poletaev : The study contains data analysis on living conditions, information about COVID-19, housing conditions, health status and practice of testing labor migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in Russia for HIV and tuberculosis (TB) in the context of the pandemic by gender and country of citizenship. The empirical basis of estimates was made up of data from the 2020 survey of 900 labor migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan living in Russia. The data analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened situation of the majority families of labor migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in Russia with wage reduction and psychological stress becoming the most significant difficulties (especially for female labor migrants). The Internet and online social networks were the main sources of information about COVID-19. Less than half of legally employed labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan used Compulsory health insurance (CHI) certificate, and they were less likely to undergo fluorographic examinations and HIV testing compared to labor migrants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (especially men). Most of the labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia did not pay enough attention to prevention and health maintenance and even deteriorated their health overextending themselves in Russia, as in the pre-COVID-19 period. Health problems either have developed or worsened, including due to unfavorable housing conditions. The study shows the need for improving access to and quality of medical services for labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia and modernizing mechanisms for informing migrants, including through digital environment and social networks. Monitoring of future changes in migration policy with due regard to new experience in migration management during the pandemic seems promising. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:00:02 +020
- Social capital as a containment factor of the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 62-82
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e85798
Authors : Elena N. Nikishina, Natalia Y. Korobkova : Effectiveness of the pandemic containment can depend upon both actions of governments and willingness of the population to follow the introduced rules, which is heavily dependable upon the social capital structure in society. This article analyzes relationship between various components of social capital and changes in mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic. The article is based on data from the World Values Survey, Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, etc. The study hypotheses have been empirically tested on a sample of 61 countries, as well as subsamples of countries with high- and low-quality institutions. The results show that high levels of trust in the government, police and courts, as well as developed norms of cooperation in society (in particular, dislike of free riding), other things being equal, contribute to lower mobility during the pandemic. This effect is particularly pronounced in countries with high-quality institutions. A high level of generalized trust, on the contrary, is not associated with a lower mobility during the pandemic, which may limit its containment, especially in countries with low-quality institutions. The results obtained can be used for developing socio-economic policy aimed at containing the pandemic. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:00:01 +020
- Coronavirus and tourism: is there light at the end of the tunnel'
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 43-61
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e90708
Authors : Marina Y. Sheresheva, Matvey S. Oborin : Tourism industry is one of the most striking examples of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on population and economy. In the previous decade the global and Russian tourism industry demonstrated sustainable development, while in 2020, due to the pandemic consequences the situation in the industry turned out to be on the brick of disaster. The most acute problems of business in this area were largely accounted for by significant social consequences of the pandemic. Decreased quality of life caused by the disease and its manifestations, aggravated chronic diseases, increased temporary disability, combined with closure of borders and collapse of international transportation, have developed a complex of factors that completely paralyzed all sectors of the tourism industry for a while. Many of these factors will retain their impact in the long term. However, the pandemic impact cannot be viewed in a negative way only. There comes an understanding that tourism may become one of the engines of economy recovery rather than a burden. This requires systematic actions of the state primarily focused on stimulating domestic tourism, restoring and developing business ecosystems, keeping in balance various interests of the tourism industry stakeholders, from tourists per se and local businesses to regional and federal authorities. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 13 Dec 2022 10:24:44 +020
- Short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and income of
the Russian population: which groups were affected the most'
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 21-42
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e90410
Authors : Marina A. Kartseva, Polina O. Kuznetsova : The paper analyzes short-term factors of job loss, wage reduction and factors of household income reduction in Russia in the context of the coronavirus crisis. Panel data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) served as empirical basis of the study. According to the study results, the highest risks of job loss are registered among females, young employees, unskilled workers, workers without professional education, and workers with low wages. However, almost the only factor of wage reduction (in case of retained employment) is employment in the most affected industries. Household income prior to the pandemic is the key determinant of household income reduction – the higher the level of material wellbeing, the higher the risk of income reduction. Increased probability of income reduction is also reported for families with children. The study has confirmed the hypothesis about negative impact of vulnerable employment on employment and wages of individuals, as well as household income. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 8 Dec 2022 09:48:47 +0200
- Spread of COVID-19 in the Russian regions in 2020: factors of excess
mortality
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(4): 1-20
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e87739
Authors : Marina G. Kolosnitsyna, Mikhail Yu. Chubarov : The paper identifies major factors associated with the pandemic spread in the Russian regions, using econometric models and nonlinear «Random Forest» models to assess their significance. The study is based on data of the Russian regions for March-December 2020, a balanced panel sample included 780 observations. Prevalence of the pandemic was estimated based on the excess mortality rate. The study has identified a positive relationship between excess mortality and the share of migrants and a negative relationship between excess mortality and the share of pensioners in the region. Importance of climatic factors has been confirmed: high temperatures, other things being equal, reduce excess mortality, while high humidity, on the contrary, increases it. Excess mortality is higher in the regions with lower population mobility. Mortality is higher in the regions with high per capita incomes and regions with significant unemployment. Vice versa, excess mortality is lower in the regions with better doctor and nurse staffing levels. The study results show that in case of repeated waves of the epidemic or emergence of new viruses, public health policy should be geographically differentiated. Priority should be given to epidemiological situation in the regions with humid climate and low temperatures, high incomes, intensive migration, and high unemployment rates. Significant investments in medical education, higher number of medical specialists and their more even distribution across regions are required. This approach turns out to be more effective in terms of reducing mortality rather than restrictions on population mobility. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 6 Dec 2022 09:31:25 +0200
- Demographic resource for data analysis and visualization
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 117-124
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81027
Authors : Dmitry Pomazkin, Vladimir Filippov : The demographic resource is designed to visualize demographic data in the Internet. The article provides a brief description of the database structure and examples of reporting forms. The following open sources of demographic information were used to develop the resource: the Human Mortality Database and Federal State Statistics Service. The use of the demographic resource provides access to basic demographic characteristics in the context of the Russian regions since 1990. In addition to Russia and its regions, this resource contains demographic information on a number of countries represented in The Human Mortality Database. The developed bilingual (Russian and English) interface enables forming both tabular and graphical reporting forms – demographic age-sex pyramids with one-year age groups, dynamic graphs and heatmaps of mortality rates. This demographic resource can be used for educational purposes, for developing analytical materials, reports and presentations. Data can also be uploaded in csv format for further analysis and use. The resource is available at: http://demography.infoarchives.ru HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 17 Nov 2022 14:59:12 +020
- Consumption and labour income over the life cycle in Mali: A National
Transfer Accounts approach
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 101-116
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e86738
Authors : Camille Guidime, Sadou Doumbo, Latif Dramani, Robert Dabou : The paper analyses the consumption and production behaviour of the Mali’s population by age using the National Transfer Account approach and household surveys and macroeconomic data. It reveals that between the ages of 28 and 66, Malians generate a surplus of 1,620 billion XOF in 2017. This surplus covers only 46% of the social demand of those under 28 and over 66. Women are in deficit over their life cycle, in other words, their level of consumption remains higher than their level of labour income, given their late entry into the labour market. While women consume as much as men over part of the life cycle, they produce 22% of labour income. The results also show that in Mali the level of material well-being measured by consumption declines with age. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 17 Nov 2022 10:09:31 +020
- Middle class’ adaptation toward innovations: perception of new
technologies and openness to it
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 80-100
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e79637
Authors : Alina I. Pishnyak, Natalia V. Khalina : In the modern world, a key skill is the ability to adapt to changing conditions, including mastering new programs, devices, technologies, ways to search for information, and sometimes new professions. With the outbreak of the pandemic – in the context of restrictive measures and transition to remote forms of employment – the problem of adaptation to innovation has become even more relevant. A quick switch to programs ensuring work in remote conditions (for example, Zoom, MSTeams) has become a necessary requirement for keeping the job for some of the employed. Residents of large cities had to switch over to digital public services, QR codes, online order of goods, etc. Obviously, not all groups of the population had a shared reaction to changes, including due to different perception of new technologies and attitudes towards them. The middle class has been traditionally regarded as a change provider in society, as a layer most open to non-groundbreaking, yet sustainable transformations and new ideas. Testing validity of this statement becomes especially interesting in light of the new reality, that has challenged the middle class (due to peculiarities of employment and lifestyle) with mastering new technologies. The purpose of this article is to analyze specific features of perception of new technologies by the middle class. Based on data of the specialized survey «Middle class: willingness to invest in human capital development», innovation openness index has been constructed comprising components of attitude, acceptance and use of innovations. On the basis of the technology acceptance model, a set of factors for perception of technical innovations has been identified, taking into account opinion of the middle class about usefulness, ease of use, reliability and safety, and elitism of innovations. In conclusion, relationship between perception of innovations and openness to them has been analyzed and determinants of openness to new technologies have been identified. The study shows that the middle class has a positive attitude towards introduction of new technologies into various areas of life, is experienced in using them and is rather interested in innovative goods and services. However, the key study conclusion is related to heterogeneity of the middle class in terms of perception of innovations and openness to them. A statement that these categories are independent stratifying features both at the level of the middle class and the entire population has been suggested to stimulate further expert discussion. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Wed, 9 Nov 2022 17:39:56 +0200
- Customer Value-Oriented Business Education in The Post-Covid Era: The Case
of MBA Programs in Russia
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 59-79
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e84192
Authors : Valentina V. Gerasimenko, Aleksei N. Kurbatskii, Dina N. Kurkova : Purpose of the research: The Covid pandemic has been a time of enormous challenges in the management of education, business education included. Transformation in education technologies has been accompanied by changes in consumer values, which education management and marketing should now focus on. This paper investigates factors and parameters involved in formation of perceived customer value with regard to MBA programmes, using experience of e-learning during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods: To attain the stated goal, survey-based qualitative and quantitative two-stage research was carried out. This involved MBA students at leading Moscow universities who were studying online during the pandemic in 2020–2021 and for whom part-time learning suddenly turned into online learning for the whole period of study. Key results: The research tested the significance of a theoretical approach to educational values (seen as an array of functional, epistemic, social and emotional values), to be integrated into MBA programmes by educational management. The findings revealed the parameters which currently determine the content of each of these four groups of values in MBA programmes, indicating that the structure of programme choice has already been formed. During the pandemic, the most significant parameters of online education market development have been the reputation of the university, the reputation and e-content of the MBA programme, flexible organization of the study process (based on e-technologies) and the availability of an online educational platform. Quantitative analysis enabled the authors to form a mathematical model of integral consumer assessment of usefulness, taking into account the combination of education value factors and their significance for various sociodemographic groups. The findings proved our hypothesis about the significant dependence between sociodemographic characteristics of MBA students and what they value the most, which needs to be taken into account in knowledge management. This outcome can provide a compass for e-learning knowledge as it points to the most relevant direction: clusterization while positioning business education programmes, and implementation of flexible individual e-learning paths when planning educational content. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Wed, 9 Nov 2022 17:39:38 +0200
- Women and youth unemployment in Western Balkans with particular focus on
Kosovo
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 35-58
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e76973
Authors : Ajtene Avdullahi, Vjosa Fejza Ademi, Besmir Salihu, Arif Krasniqi : Using the secondary data from Eurostat, World Bank, SEE Jobs Gateway Database and Kosovo Agency of Statistics labour source survey results the authors investigate female and youth unemployment as well as the level of inactivity in the labour market of Western Balkans with a particular focus on Kosovo. The results indicate that in Kosovo the unemployment rate remains the highest among Western Balkan countries. Whereas the unemployment rate of women and youth in Kosovo is even higher, presenting one of the main challenges and concerns for the country. The authors conclude by providing recommendations, which include implementing appropriate policies in order to decrease the unemployment rate, and the share of economically inactive women and youth by encouraging them to register as active job seekers or attend entrepreneurship training to gain the knowledge and skills needed to start a business. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 8 Nov 2022 18:32:50 +0200
- Job change in the conditions of precarious work (on the example of the
Republic of Bashkortostan permanent residents)
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 15-34
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e78162
Authors : Marcel S. Turakayev : Job and profession change are basic forms of social and labour mobility. Unstable working conditions are typical for less developed in socio-economic terms regions. The purpose of the study is to identify the degree of influence of precarious employment and other socio-demographic and economic factors on the probability of job change among Bashkortostan residents. The empirical basis of the study is a sociological survey of the Republic of Bashkortostan population. According to the results obtained, such factors as working in a private enterprise, self-employment, short work experience and the presence of a temporary employment contract increase the likelihood of job change. Income satisfaction, official wage and the absence of credit debt reduce the probability of job change. Respondents who want to improve their level of education and qualifications, as well as those who do not work within their specialty, tend to change their place of work more often. The conducted research has shown that changing a job, as a rule, does not contribute to improving the financial situation and working conditions of respondents. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 8 Nov 2022 18:21:07 +0200
- Population mortality in the central Russia municipalities
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(3): 1-14
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e84005
Authors : Timur A. Fattakhov, Anna A. Mironova : The Central Federal District (CFD) is the most populous district in Russia, as of the beginning of 2021, 27% of the Russian population lived out there. However, the CFD mortality rate is characterized by a significant variation across different territories of the District. The purpose of this study is to assess the CFD territorial differentiation of mortality rate based on life expectancy with a breakdown on municipalities in 2010-2019. Life expectancy by CFD municipality and urban district was based on information about population size of the CDF municipalities and urban districts, obtained from the database on municipalities for the period 2010-2020 and individual non-personalized Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) data on cause-of-death mortality. A total of 326 municipalities and 63 urban districts were included in the analysis. A total of 11.5 thousand life tables were developed. The analysis shows a significant differentiation of mortality rate at the municipal level. Even though the CFD life expectancy is above the Russian average mainly due to high levels of life expectancy in Moscow, the vast majority of the CFD municipalities report a life expectancy below the Russian average. The worst situation with mortality in the CFD is developed in municipalities with a population of less than 10 thousand people. The main factor for a high gap in life expectancy across territories and gender is a high male mortality in working ages. There are significant reserves of for life expectancy growth within the CFD. These reserves are concentrated in the regional capitals with adjacent municipalities, as well as other large municipalities with a population over 100 thousand people. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 16:28:46 +030
- Male fertility in the 19th century: the case of the Moscow merchant class
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 144-152
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e91138
Authors : Irina A. Troitskaya, Alexandre A. Avdeev : The article presents estimates of male fertility among the Moscow merchants in 1850-1858: it assesses the impact of specific marital behavior of male merchants on fertility rates, defines the limits of the male reproductive age, and considers the contribution of infant and child mortality to the formation of family structure. Skazki (household lists) of the 10th revision of the Moscow merchants served the data source. The analysis showed that late marriage with low definitive celibacy of the Moscow male merchants and a significant age difference between spouses is combined with relatively high rates of male fertility at the age of over 50. The total fertility rate for the period under study exceeds five children per man. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 17:46:52 +0300
- Historical censuses and a search for perspective farmland in the context
of global climate change
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 131-143
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81617
Authors : Sergei V. Tkachev, Natalia N. Tkacheva : Due to global climate change, there is a gradual change in the use of farmland: some degrades in terms of traditional exploitation, while other becomes more suitable for cultivation. The study is focused on the latter, namely, on identifying those areas of the Russian Far East where climate change will have a positive impact in terms of both economic development and demographic improvement. The peculiar feature of our methodology is the use of historical data to identify areas for the most comfortable and economically feasible residence of peasants in the region. Having identified these locations and their physical and geographical characteristics, the authors have attempted to find similar conditions in areas that currently remain undeveloped, yet ready to accommodate settlers in the coming 20 years. With the beginning of the development of these territories by the Russians, it turned out that the south of the Primorskaya Oblast, the so-called South Ussuri Krai, was the most suitable area for agriculture (and for population concentration in general). Therefore, it was the settlements in this area that were taken as a sample for the analysis. The following four most important landscape characteristics of an agriculturally successful settlement have been identified – soil, average temperature for August, average precipitation for August, and elevation above sea level (up to 200 m). The authors used downscaled1 monthly climate data from the CMIP6 multimodel for GCM BCC-CSM2-MR of the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the period 2021-2040 as climate change data (this is an average, most likely scenario of global warming with due regard to partial global policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions). As a result, 26 still undeveloped (in terms of arable farming) and uninhabited areas were identified in the Primorye, Khabarovsk Territories and the Jewish Autonomous Region with a total area of about 1 million hectares. It is these areas that should be given a special attention when planning the region’s development; they require an additional in situ testing. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 17:46:52 +0300
- Seasonal variation in mortality in the city of Barnaul based on the
Pokrovsky parish registers (1877-1897)
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 120-130
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81021
Authors : Maria V. Vinnik : The paper analyzes seasonal fluctuations in mortality among the parish population on the basis of parish registers of the Pokrovsky parish in Barnaul in the last third of the XIX century. The study results show that infant mortality in Barnaul in 1877-1897 was still strongly dependable upon the time of year. Summer and winter peaks suggest a continued role of exogenous causes of death. Infant mortality rates in summer were three times higher than the annual average. The mortality peak is mainly registered in June. Starting from the age of 10-14, the seasonal factor passes from the picture, and deaths are distributed more evenly over the seasons. The analysis of seasonal fluctuations in mortality by cause of death showed that in children, summer peaks are associated with infectious diseases, while winter peaks are due to cold-related diseases. Seasonal fluctuations in mortality by social class are not fundamentally different. It can be assumed that the demographic transition was still in its early stages and yet to be developed even in the upper classes, which had always been at the forefront of demographic modernization. The obtained results and conclusions about seasonal fluctuations in infant and child mortality are consistent with pre-revolutionary and modern research. The existing differences in seasonal fluctuations in infant mortality exemplified by different cities and settlements in Russia with peaks either in July or August, may indicate a wide climatic diversity and socio-economic differences between regions of the country, as well as differences in calculation methods. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 17:46:52 +0300
- First names given in France, 1800–2019: a window into the process of
individualization
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 108-119
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81580
Authors : Jean-François Mignot : What can first names tell us about populations of the past, as well as our present day' This article uses the number and distribution of first names given to newborns in France from 1800 to 2019 as an indicator of the degree of individualization, i.e. parents’ willingness to give their child a unique identity and to make others regard it as unique. Newborns receive more distinct names, from fewer than 2,000 names per year in the 1900s, compared to more than 13,000 per year since 2010. Fewer newborns are given one of the Top-10 most frequently given names of the decade, from 65% of newborns in 1810–1819 to 10% in 2010–2019. Fashion for first names has been also changing more quickly since the early 20th century, i.e., the most popular names currently remain in fashion for a shorter period of time. Overall, in France as elsewhere in the West and in the world, more and more parents are choosing for their children – particularly for their daughters – relatively new, distinctive and individualizing names. The analysis of first names can thus help social scientists, including historical demographers, measure the process of individualization and compare it across countries – a task that has been notoriously difficult to this day. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 17:46:52 +0300
- Migration of the USSR population in the pre-war years (1939-1940)
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 70-78
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81466
Authors : Vladimir A. Isupov, Natalia V. Chernysheva : The article is devoted to the study of migration of the USSR population in the pre-war years (1939-1940). Along with the analysis of the number of migrants and direction of migration flows, the authors also demonstrate the increasing control functions of the state in the field of population movement in the USSR. Based on the analysis of a wide range of historical sources, many of which are being introduced into scientific circulation for the first time ever, the authors have developed an original classification of the pre-war migration. The article is devoted to the USSR population in the pre-war years, determines its components with population migration being one of them. The article concludes that the socio-economic causes of migration are interrelated with the political (mainly foreign policy) ones. The pre-war migration is also characterized by a latent nature, a combination of planned and spontaneous movements with the desire of the state to take the latter under control. The practice of forced displacement of the population, including from the annexed territories continued during the period under study. An important part of the USSR migration were military mobilizations, forced deportations of large groups of population, recruitment of labour, and agricultural resettlement. At the same time, spontaneous relocations outside the state control played a significant role in forming migration flows. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 20:57:22 +0300
- Development of dacha settlements in the Moscow region in the second half
of the 19th – first half of the 20th century
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 55-69
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e82385
Authors : Alexander V. Rusanov : One of the results of the dacha development of a territory is the emergence of specific types of settlements – dacha settlements. Their role in today’s national economic complex of the Moscow region is different, largely due to peculiarities of formation at different stages of socio-economic development. In this context, the pre-war decades are interesting as a period of adaptation of the pre-revolutionary dacha market trends to meet needs of the new planned economy, however, the analysis is complicated by inconsistency of a lot of statistical data. Data supplementary with reference and literary sources makes it possible to show that the pre–war dacha settlements were formed in the following two ways originated after reforming in1861: «the urban type» – through the processes of urbanization occurring in rural settlements close to the city limits, and «the developer type» – through the construction of dacha settlements on specially allocated lands. This led to the formation of a network of dacha settlements in the pre-war Moscow region, which became local centers of economic development, capable of meeting the macroeconomic needs in a mobile way, and strengthening prerequisites for the post-war development of the dacha settlements. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 16:14:49 +0300
- Patterns of population decline following European contact and
colonization: The cases of Tahiti and the Marquesas
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 88-107
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81900
Authors : Jean-Louis Rallu : Recent archaeological data assess that Tahiti and the Marquesas Islands were densely populated at contact with the Europeans and then experienced a tremendous decline. This phenomenon is most often attributed to epidemics, while a steady negative increase is rarely mentioned. This paper shows that the population of Tahiti was most probably around 110,000 – or even reached 180,000 – at contact, based on a retrodiction from the 1881 census using data on epidemic mortality and annual decline rates observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Tahiti, the Marquesas, and other Eastern Polynesian islands in similar situations, according to missionary, administrative, and medical reports. Our ‘model’, or reconstitution, provides estimates on the impact of both types of mortality. Due to no exposure to childhood and other diseases common on the continents, the Polynesians had low immunity, as shown by age-specific death rates until the 1918 flu and the 1951 measles epidemics. Following the European contact, sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), tuberculosis (TB), and other introduced infectious diseases resulted in a steady population decline due to reduced birth rates and very high death rates. Health services were available for the Europeans soon after the takeover, however the natives got access to health services much later with their sporadic and fragmental provision. The constant negative increase extended far beyond the colonial period, including after effective drugs were discovered in the 1880s, becoming the main contributor to the overall demographic decline in the Marquesas, where health services were missing most of the time before 1924, mostly in the South-Eastern group. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 15:03:08 +0300
- Urban fertility in Russia in 1859-1913: on commencement of demographic
transition
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 1-13
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e83642
Authors : Boris N. Mironov : In the late Imperial period, a significant share of population of European Russia has demonstrated improved demographic indicators. The most important sign of demographic modernization is individual birth control. The available data suggest that transition from spontaneous fertility to the controlled one was first noted in St. Petersburg residents around the middle of the XIX century, disseminating among the entire urban population in the second half of the century, and extending to the rural population in the early twentieth century. Commencement of the demographic transition in Russia has been neglected by researchers for two reasons. First, demographic processes were studied country-wide, without any breakdown on urban and rural areas. With this approach, the urban population, accounting for only 10% in 1863 and 15% in 1914, blended with the general population; therefore, it was difficult to understand specifics of its reproduction. Second, age-specific and total fertility rates were not included in the analysis. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 1 Jul 2022 20:02:27 +0300
- Health education in France during the interwar period: an example of the
fight against tuberculosis
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 35-54
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e82304
Authors : Virginie De Luca Barrusse : Since the 1890s, in Europe, as in the United States, the fight against social disasters has comprised public health education. In France, the prevalence of tuberculosis was of particular concern. Back in 1913, the mortality from this cause accounted for 12% of the total mortality. The war has worsened the epidemiological situation, urging representatives of the American philanthropic Rockefeller Foundation to take a number of actions. From 1917 to 1922, in parallel with the creation of dispensaries and sanatoriums, the Foundation conducted an informational and educational campaign. In France during the interwar period, this American experience served as a source of ideas for health education. The purpose of this article is to study conditions for developing a health education policy and measures taken within the framework of this policy. The fight against tuberculosis serves as an example, since it enables understanding of how, alongside institutional innovations and introduction of prevention and care tools, a system of public health education is being created and developed. In particular, campaigns for distributing anti-tuberculosis stamps make it possible to trace how knowledge of hygiene principles was spreading in the population of France, simultaneously providing fundraising for the fight against tuberculosis. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 1 Jul 2022 18:39:45 +0300
- Economic specialization and demographic development of settlements in the
Northern region
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(2): 14-34
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e81561
Authors : Andrey V. Smirnov, Uliana V. Lytkina : The article is devoted to the analysis of impact of economic specialization of settlements in the northern mining region on their demographic dynamics. The object of the study is 58 urban and 725 rural settlements of the Komi Republic in 1897-2020. Use of highly detailed data made it possible to identify spatial and sectoral patterns in demographic development of the settlements. The authors have proposed periodization of economic and demographic development of the Komi Republic in the XX-XXI centuries based on production structure and population movement. The study has identified specifics of demographic dynamics in settlements specialized in coal mining, natural gas and oil production, timber, transportation and multifunctional settlements in northern Russia. The authors show that relationship between the volume of production and demographic dynamics varies depending on the settlement specialization. The relationship between the population size and phase of the natural resource extraction cycle is most pronounced in coal mining settlements. As to rural settlements, in addition to economic specialization, the dominant ethnic group was taken into account. The study shows that the smallest outflow of population is registered in agricultural settlements, as well as settlements with Komi being the dominant ethnic group or settlements with mixed ethnic composition. Impact of spatial remoteness of northern settlements on population size in different time periods has been determined. The results obtained make it possible to predict future changes in population distribution in the northern and Arctic regions. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Fri, 1 Jul 2022 15:32:22 +0300
- Comparing intraregional trends of demographic development in the Russian
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(1): 109-122
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.5.e79253
Authors : Denis N. Mokrensky : The article compares intraregional trends in demographic development of the old-developed territories of the Russian Near North: Arkhangelsk, Vologda, and Kostroma Oblasts. The author identifies trends in the fertility, mortality, and migration in 2011—2019 basing on the statistical indicators characterizing the demographic situation in municipal entities and urban districts of the old-developed areas in these regions. A comparative analysis of the demographic dynamic in the three regions confirmed the well-known conclusions about depopulation, urbanization, and migration loss in most municipalities. Steady depopulation was observed in medium-sized and small cities, including in municipal centers, where the inflow of population from the nearest periphery is decreasing. The further away from Moscow the region is, the higher the growth rate of the urban population and the rate of decline in the rural population. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Mon, 9 May 2022 15:05:22 +0300
- Do economic inequalities impact demographic dividend: Evidence from India
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(1): 80-108
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.5.e76490
Authors : Muttur R. Narayana : The paper offers a new explanation and prediction of empirical relationship between income and consumption inequalities and demographic dividend. The framework for the analysis is a modified National Transfer Accounts (NTA)-based modelling of the first demographic dividend with inequality-adjusted or inequality-discounted economic support ratio (ESR). The model is tested for India by calculating the inequality-adjusted demographic dividend (or the growth rate of ESR) for the period 2005-2050. The results show that income inequality is not higher than consumption one for all ages and these age-specific economic inequalities have remarkable effects on (i) lowering the observed age-specific distribution of labour income for select ages and consumption for all ages and (ii) reducing the size and duration of demographic dividend due to lower growth rate of ESR. In addition, income inequality effects are found to be stronger than consumption inequality effects in terms of reducing the size of demographic dividend. These results imply that (a) growth effects of the first demographic dividend are upward-biased if unadjusted for the economic inequalities; (b) attainment of goals and targets of the reduction in inequalities under UN-SDGs 2030 by redistributive economic policies are contributory to the maximization of economic growth through the first demographic dividend; and (c) economic inequalities do impact the size and duration of demographic dividend. Subject to the availability of data, the modified approach to the first demographic dividend calculation in this paper is of relevance for comparative studies between India and other countries to draw lessons from mutual experiences and to establish the generality of results. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Mon, 9 May 2022 12:24:07 +0300
- Methodology for Monitoring the Mobility of Circular Labour Migrants in
Moscow Region
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(1): 1-13
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e77308
Authors : Yulia Yu. Shitova : The paper presents the original author’s methodology for monitoring commuting labour migration in a region on the example of Moscow Region. The methodology is based on regular collection of real-time information from the Yandex.Probki platform on the regional transport network state by querying and saving travel time for a fixed set of car routes (basic sample) covering the region under study. An analysis of the data collected over the past two years enabled studying the structure and dynamics of travel time losses by commuting labour migrants. The time dynamics of losses are sensitive to events such as lockdowns and holidays. The estimates obtained show a stable cyclicity of travel time losses within a day and a week, which confirms the validity of the indicator proposed by the author. The study demonstrates that the loss of time on the commute during peak hours is 2.5 times higher than the loss when driving without traffic jams. In conclusion, the paper discusses the prospects for scaling the author’s methodology to any regions in which the Yandex.Probki platform is present. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 18:31:07 +030
- Does the value of human life in Russia increase with age and higher levels
of education'
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(1): 62-79
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.5.e79796
Authors : Ekaterina A. Zubova : Estimates of the value of life, reflecting society’s preferences regarding the choice between safety and money, are key indicators for state management in areas such as healthcare, transport, demographic policy, and environmental protection. This article is a logical continuation of the previous research presenting the initial estimates of the value of life in Russia based on analysis of the revealed preferences about employment in industries associated with high fatality risks. In addition to the previous results, this study provides a new theoretical model explaining the logic of choosing employment considering fatality risks and offers estimates of the value of life across educational and age groups. The empirical part of the paper is based on the RLMS HSE data for the period from 2010 to 2020; the author uses panel regression with random effects. The analysis shows that the average value of life in Russia is 287 million rubles, varying from 241 to 450 million rubles depending on levels of education achieved, and considering age value of life ranges from 329 to 349 million rubles (in those groups for which estimates are significant). Possible explanations for this variability are related to the human capital factor, which changes with age and education level. At the same time, the impact of human capital on the value of life can be both positive and negative. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 16:20:49 +030
- Fertility-Household Credit Burden Nexus at the Present Stage
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(1): 36-61
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e76066
Authors : Ilya N. Gurov, Elena Yu. Kulikova : The article examines the relationship between fertility and household credit burden using data for 79 countries for the period from 1990 to 2019. The authors identify 9 patterns describing the mutual influence of fertility and household debt burden. The analysis of patterns shows that the presence of a significant positive impact of households’ mortgage debt burden on fertility in future periods may indicate both a direct causal relationship between the indicators and the adoption of conditional decisions on pregnancy planning prior to obtaining mortgage loans to improve housing conditions. The same is true for households’consumer credit burden, as well as for quantitative estimates of the impact of fertility growth on households’ debt burden in subsequent periods. The article shows that in developed and developing countries, the growth of the total fertility rate is positively associated with the subsequent dynamics of mortgage and consumer loans in relation to GDP. In developed countries, the growth of mortgage and consumer loans is positively associated with the subsequent fertility dynamics. In developing countries, an increase in mortgage loans is positively but insignificantly correlated with fertility in the following years, while an increase in consumer loans leads to an increase in fertility in the short term, and to its decrease in subsequent years. The results indicate that success in demographic policy aimed at increasing fertility will be accompanied by the growth of households’debt burden, and therefore in subsequent periods households will be forced to pay interest and repay the principal debt, which will reduce families’ ability to finance children’s education. In this regard, state programmes that provide free education and development of children should be conducted in parallel with the implementation of demographic policy aimed at increasing fertility. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 15:47:26 +030
- Long-term dynamics of informal employment and its relationship with the
poverty of the Russian population against the backdrop of the COVID-19
pandemic
Abstract: Population and Economics 6(1): 14-35
DOI : 10.3897/popecon.6.e78235
Authors : Svetlana S. Biryukova, Oksana V. Sinyavskaya, Daria E. Kareva : The study aims at assessing the prevalence of informal employment in the Russian labour market and evaluating its relationship with the risks of monetary poverty. Empirically, the study bases on the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS HSE) for 2000-2020. Calculations have shown that over the past 20 years, on average, about a quarter of Russian employees were included in the informal labour market for their main or secondary employment. The results of the study provide some evidence on the existence of several zones of informality in the Russian labour market, in which there are different motives for deformalization, in particular: low-skilled employment in the informal sector, employment only in the format of informal part-time / side jobs (“casual employment”) and partial departure to the informal sector while maintaining an official employment contract at the main place of work. Employment with part or all of the pay for the main job received informally — that is, without a formal contract or with declared wages below the actual wage received, in violation of current regulations — is more common among men, young people and people of early working age, and as well as citizens with education below vocational secondary. At the same time, women, people aged 30–49, and citizens with vocational secondary education predominate in the structure of informally employed, although with a slight preponderance. Regression analysis shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between involvement in the informal labour market and the risks of monetary poverty: fully informal employment in 2019 is associated with higher chances of the respondent’s household falling into poverty, and with lower chances in 2020. HTML XML PDF
PubDate: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:34:41 +030
|
Open Access journal
