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- Stakeholder participation in long term planning of water infrastructure
Abstract: Abstract Taking stakeholders into account while making plans helps to increase legitimacy. But in long-term planning involvement of stakeholders encounters severe problems. It encounters problems because of the misfit in planning horizons between asset manager and stakeholders. Furthermore, the ambiguous and indistinct character of stakeholders’ ambitions makes successful participation difficult. This article explores ways to deal with this problematic nature of stakeholder participation in long-term planning within modern water infrastructure asset management. Following theory, this article presents a typology with four types of possible styles for asset management which also gives rise to specific forms of stakeholder participation: (1) monofunctional - asset manager realizes the main function of its assets and manages them with only an eye on the principle core function of the asset; (2) integrated - asset manager realizes an integral approach of its assets, and manages them with this integral approach in mind; (3) accommodating - asset manager realizes the main function of its assets but accommodates other functions as well; and (4) learning - asset manager is responsible for the main function of its assets, but invites stakeholders to participate, intertwine other functions and to manage, explore and develop the system jointly. The feasibility of these styles of asset management is assessed by looking at four cases with a long-term perspective within Dutch water management. We derived possible characteristics of these styles and accompanying stakeholder participation, seen from a long-term perspective. These characteristics give appropriate directions to deal with the problematic nature of stakeholder participation in long-term issues within modern water and infrastructural asset management.
PubDate: 2016-01-20
- Symmetrica: test case for transportation electrification research
Abstract: Abstract In recent years, transportation electrification has emerged as a trend to support energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction targets. The true success, however, of this trend depends on the successful integration of electric vehicles into the infrastructure systems that support them. In effect, electric vehicles and their supporting charging infrastructure couple the transportation and electrical power systems into a nexus. In the absence of fully deployed large scale electrified transportation systems, this paper argues the need for a transportation electrification test case analogous to those used ubiquitously in the power systems engineering field. It then presents such a test case; aptly called Symmetrica. It consists of a multi-modal electrified transportation system topology, an electric power topology, and activity-based use case data that spans transportation and charging. The paper concludes with several potential research areas where the test case may be applied.
PubDate: 2015-10-16
- Equitable distribution of growth for utilitarian and non-utilitarian
infrastructure planning
Abstract: Abstract To simultaneously address social equity and spatial equity, we develop a new type of preference modelling to distribute infrastructure resources that takes into account neighbourhood inequity effects. We compare this so-called spatial preference modelling (SPM) with the more common non-spatial preference modelling (NSPM) in terms of their compliance to two distinct perspectives of welfare theory, i.e., utilitarian and non-utilitarian welfare theory. With respect to utilitarian theory, we apply a total utility equality approach, whereas for non-utilitarian equality, we conduct a curve dominance analysis to evaluate the effect on (1) pro-poor policy, (2) inequity and (3) prosperity. A case study for the Special Region of Yogyakarta in Indonesia is used to show the difference in the effectiveness of SPM and NSPM in resolving resource allocation problems in the fields of transportation, electricity, telecommunication and freshwater infrastructures, four fields of infrastructure that differ in terms of their typology (point, linear, plane and space), initial level of development and spatial inequity. The results confirm that SPM complies better with both welfare theories than NSPM. Moreover, the curve dominance analysis reveals that infrastructure characteristics and the level of development contribute to model effectiveness. Hence, the findings can contribute to a more effective policy for equitable growth.
PubDate: 2015-10-15
- Estimating economic loss from cascading infrastructure failure: a
perspective on modelling interdependency
Abstract: Abstract Infrastructure failure can cause significant disruption of economic activity. The size of economic loss is a direct function of the interdependencies between infrastructure and economic systems raising important questions about infrastructure vulnerability and resilience. Economic theory is important in this regard as it makes a distinction between damage to infrastructure (stock) and how this may transfer to losses in economic productivity (flow). In order to capture the economic consequences of infrastructure failure, various economic models have been proposed to represent the multimodal complex networks and capture the effects of cascading infrastructure failure. There is still no consensus on the correct approach for estimating economic loss. The method commonly known as input-output analysis has gained the most attention in recent years for its ability to model indirect or higher-order economic losses. The typical input-output approach has spawned an entire field of related models which include: the inoperability input-output model (IIM); Ghosh supply-side model; dynamic input-output models; key-linkages analysis; as well as inventory based models amongst others. Amongst the various methods used to model infrastructure failure this paper identifies the assumptions and shortcomings that must be overcome to produce better estimates of economic loss. Firstly, critical infrastructure systems are connected to the economy through both physical and economic linkages. Models need to capture both types of linkage to accurately represent how cascading infrastructure failure will lead to economic loss and then how sectoral losses may have an indirect impact on infrastructure systems. Secondly, input-output based approaches assume that the economic structure within an economy remains stable during a disaster and throughout the recovery process. New models are required that are able to capture substitution of goods and structural change within an economy. Thirdly, models of economic loss are generally deterministic in nature and thus give no indication about the uncertainty behind model-based estimates. Economic loss estimates using probability theory and methods such as Monte-Carlo simulations or fuzzy logic may prove to be important avenues for quantifying uncertainty in economic loss estimates resulting from infrastructure failure.
PubDate: 2015-09-16
- Who’s Superconnected and Who’s Not? Investment in the UK’s
Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) Infrastructure
Abstract: Abstract The Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) infrastructure sector has dramatically expanded over the past decade as the demand for increased digital connectivity has increased from both companies and consumers. Broadband investment has been increasingly associated with positive economic growth and digital connectivity is seen as an essential ingredient with which to increase productivity, employment and create new enterprises. Hence, there is concern that companies and consumers in particular locations are disadvantaged if they are unable to obtain sufficient connectivity. At the present time there has been limited analysis of where new investment has taken place, why it has taken place in specific locations, and what the key economic and socio-economic drivers have been influencing this. The role of regulation in this process is also important to understand. This article draws on two unique, uncensored infrastructure datasets from the UK’s telecommunications regulator Ofcom to assess the factors driving investment in fixed and mobile ICT infrastructure. The fixed infrastructure model utilised modem sync speed measurements from over 20 million premises, aggregated to 7004 Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA) (97.3 %) in England and Wales, to provide comprehensive micro-geographic analysis for the first time. The mobile model employed the average data transfer per premises as a network capacity-demand metric for 173 counties and Unitary Local Authorities (ULAs) (98.3 %) in England, Scotland and Wales. Using predictors at a range of spatial scales, multilevel modelling utilising Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods was used to estimate both the fixed and mobile broadband infrastructure models. The results confirm many of the prevailing postulates of existing telecommunications theory, namely, that dense, wealthy and well-educated areas are attractive investment hotbeds for telecommunication technologies. In the UK’s fixed ICT infrastructure market, inter-platform competition was found to have a positive impact on investment compared to the mixed results found for intra-platform competition. On the whole, telecommunication investment in the UK appears to be driven by the same drivers as the much documented U.S. case, but further spatially granular research needs to be undertaken to examine the market dynamics between the incumbent and different forms of induced competition across the telecommunication network.
PubDate: 2015-07-07
- Estimating the contribution of infrastructure to national productivity in
Europe
Abstract: Abstract While there is much interest in understanding the contribution that investment in different types of infrastructure can make to the economic development of cities, regions and nations, such research is constrained by various methodological difficulties. Following the approach of Égert, Kozluk and Sutherland (2009), this paper seeks to identify whether countries might be over- or under-investing in infrastructure relative to other forms of capital investment, from the point of view of raising productivity. While subject to various limitations (and also highlighting the continuing data constraints in this area), such an analysis provides a consistent and comparable basis on which to assess whether countries might benefit from additional infrastructure investment or, conversely, whether they might in fact stand to gain from alternative forms of fixed capital formation. The article analyses five types of infrastructure in the 27 Member States of the European Union (prior to 2013), Norway and Switzerland. We find some evidence of over-investment in electricity-generation capacity (investment in other forms of capital would likely yield higher productivity returns) and under-investment in roads, motorways and telephone infrastructure (there is potential for greater productivity growth from investing in these infrastructures). The evidence of a relationship between rail investment and productivity is less clear. While the results suggest that countries might stand to improve their national productivity by shifting the balance between infrastructure and other capital, higher productivity is not a country’s only objective. Resilient infrastructure provision and/or upgrades with a view to pursuing other objectives such as climate-change mitigation may take precedence, necessitating at least some degree of ‘non-optimal’ investment.
PubDate: 2015-07-07
- Low carbon infrastructure investment: extending business models for
sustainability
Abstract: Abstract Investment in infrastructure is recognized as a key enabler of economic prosperity, but it is also important for addressing social and environmental challenges, including climate change mitigation and addressing fuel poverty. The UK Government Strategy Investing in Britain’s Future argues that significant investment in “resilient, cost effective and sustainable energy supplies” is needed to meet these challenges. However, current methods of assessing the costs and benefits of infrastructure investment, and the subsequent design of business models needed to deliver this investment, often prioritise partial economic gains over social and environmental objectives. This paper extends the business model canvas approach to allow designing business models and evaluation methods that can incorporate social and environmental value streams and propositions as well as economic values in order to facilitate genuinely sustainable infrastructure investment. It demonstrates the usefulness of this extension through two case studies of the development of smart grids for electricity distribution and local heat delivery networks in the UK. Smart grids are essential for maintaining the security and reliability of electricity systems whilst incorporating increasing amounts of low carbon generation in distribution networks. District heat networks can facilitate the efficient supply of low carbon heat. However, both will require significant levels of investment, co-ordination between public, private and regulatory actors, and will deliver a range of economic, social and environmental costs and benefits to these actors. Drawing on empirical interviews with local actors involved in smart grid and heat network developments, and recent work on valuation and business model canvas analysis, the paper challenges the traditional view of a business model as only creating one form of value. Accounting for multiple types of value helps to identify business models that are more likely to achieve the environmental and social goals of infrastructure transformation and opens the door for new actors. Finally, the paper introduces an approach to complex systems modelling of infrastructure investment decisions to take into account the range of actors and the diversity of motivations of these actors.
PubDate: 2015-06-12
- ‘The governance of local infrastructure funding and financing’
Abstract: Abstract The governance of infrastructure financing at the city and city-region scales is critical to the search for new and innovative funding mechanisms for infrastructure systems. The global financial crisis and economic downturn have focused attention on the role of infrastructure renewal and development in economic recovery and stimulus. Austerity and the fiscal consolidation of public finances have reinforced government efforts to reduce expenditure and debt, and secure private sector engagement and resources. Local actors in cities and city-regions have been compelled into finding new sources of private and even international capital, developing innovative business models for infrastructure provision and establishing new institutional and governance arrangements. This article analyses the context and emergent infrastructure funding and financing approaches, models and practices being formulated as part of a review of the City Deals in the UK. The experience of the City Deals raises critical questions about the emergent and recombinant forms of urban leadership and governance in cities and city-regions and the nature of centre-local relationships in the austerity state.
PubDate: 2015-06-09
- Introducing system interdependency into infrastructure appraisal: from
projects to portfolios to pathways
Abstract: Abstract Current methods for appraisal of infrastructure projects have been developed to consider multiple criteria, wider economic impacts and uncertainty, yet their focus on standalone projects and sector specific methods ignores the widely acknowledged ‘system of system’ interactions between infrastructure networks. Here we draw inspiration from real options ‘in’ projects to build on current appraisal methods, extending the analysis from single projects to cross-sector regional portfolios and finally to temporally differentiated development pathways; quantifying each stage through a case study on the Thames Hub Vision. The result is a system perspective of the investments, including: (i) the emergent effects of infrastructure asset interactions and how these are affected by the timing and order of development; (ii) an understanding of the ‘opportunity’ value of an investment through its ability to restrict or enable further developments; and (iii) the total required resources and potential environmental outcomes. Through our case study we demonstrate these effects, identifying system effects sufficient to reverse the outcome of the analysis from a net negative, to a net positive result. Furthermore, we show that the enabling effects of an asset on future developments can create impacts an order of magnitude larger than those observed through current individual asset appraisals. Our developments allow the creation of a decision support tool capable of more fully evaluating the effects of infrastructure investments, with a focus on the long-term opportunity provided by development strategies. The work provides a platform for prioritisation of investments across sectors and for highlighting cross-sector effects, thereby encouraging stakeholder engagement and collaboration. Further work is necessary to explore the effects of intrinsic socio-economic uncertainty in the modelling assumptions and feedbacks between investments and future projections, such as population change and economic growth.
PubDate: 2015-05-22
- Improving measures of topological robustness in networks of networks and
suggestion of a novel way to counter both failure propagation and
isolation
Abstract: Abstract The study of interdependent complex networks in the last decade has shown how cascading failure can result in the recursive and complete fragmentation of all connected systems from the destruction of a comparatively small number of nodes. Existing “network of networks” approaches are still in infancy and have shown limits when trying to model the robustness of real-world systems, due to simplifying assumptions regarding network interdependencies and post-attack viability. In order to increase the realism of such models, we challenge such assumptions by validating the following four hypotheses trough experimental results obtained from computer based simulations. Firstly, we suggest that, in the case of network topologies vulnerable to fragmentation, replacing the standard measure of robustness based on the size of the one largest remaining connected component by a new measure allowing secondary components to remain viable when measuring post-attack viability can make a significant improvement to the model. Secondly, we show that it is possible to influence the way failure propagation is balanced between coupled networks while keeping the same overall robustness score by allowing nodes in a given network to have multiple counter parts in another network. Thirdly, we challenge the generalised assumption that partitioning between networks is a good way to increase robustness and find that isolation is a force as equally destructive as the iterative propagation of cascading failure. This result significantly alters where the optimum robustness lies in the balance between isolation and inter-network coupling in such interconnected systems. Finally, we propose a solution to the consequent problem of seemingly ever increasing vulnerability of interdependent networks to both cascading failure and isolation: the use of permutable nodes that would give such systems rewiring capabilities. This last concept could have wide implications when trying to improve the topological resilience of natural or engineered interdependent networks.
PubDate: 2015-04-30
- Development, information and social connectivity in Côte
d’Ivoire
Abstract: Abstract Understanding human socioeconomic development has proven to be one of the most difficult and persistent problems in science and policy. Traditional policy has often attempted to promote human development through infrastructure and the delivery of services, but the link between these engineered systems and the complexity of human socioeconomic behavior remains poorly understood. Recent research suggests that the key to socioeconomic progress lies in the development of processes whereby new information is created by individuals and organizations and embedded in the structure of social networks at a diverse set of scales, from nations to cities to firms. Here, we formalize these ideas in terms of network theory—namely the spatial network of mobile phone communications in Côte d’Ivoire--to show how incipient socioeconomic connectivity may constitute a general obstacle to development. Inspired by recent progress in the theory of cities as complex systems, we then propose a set of tests for these theories using telecommunications network data and describe how telecommunication services may generally help promote socioeconomic development.
PubDate: 2014-12-12
- Letter from the Editor
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Open Access journal
