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- Introduction
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Abstract: This roundtable considers what role, if any, Asia's so-called middle powers can play in response to growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait.1 What strategies and approaches are this category of states adopting as the likelihood of major conflict over this enduring flashpoint intensifies' How do Asia's middle powers view the costs and risks of conflict over Taiwan, and what key factors inform their assessments' To what extent do their respective approaches exhibit commonalities and potential complementarities, and to what extent are they distinct or even completely divergent' Perhaps most importantly, do this region's middle powers—either individually or in concert—have the agency to shape the course of the Taiwan ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Preparing for a Taiwan Contingency: Lessons for Japan from the War in
Ukraine-
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Abstract: Former prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe stated in December 2021 that "a Taiwan contingency is a contingency for Japan…[I]t is also a contingency for the Japan-U.S. alliance. People in Beijing, particularly President Xi Jinping, should not misjudge that."1 Since then, it has become common for Japanese politicians and commentators to speak more freely and frequently about a potential Taiwan contingency and its impact on Japan. Given the geographic proximity between Japan and Taiwan, it is apparent that the Japanese must consider the impact that any crisis over Taiwan, particularly one involving the use of force, would have on Japan. Nevertheless, it had long been taboo—at least in the political realm—to discuss ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- South Korean Entanglement in a Taiwan Contingency
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Abstract: What would the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) do in the event of a war between the United States and China over Taiwan' Until recently, successive South Korean administrations had assiduously insisted that their primary concern during any cross-strait conflict would be the clear and present danger posed by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea). For policymakers in Seoul, the priority has been ensuring that North Korea does not use a cross-strait conflict as an opportunity to conduct military provocations on the Korean Peninsula or even open a second front in a wider regional war. But increasing fears of a U.S.-China conflict sometime this decade have led South Korean leaders to ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Australia's "Taiwan Problem": Middle-Power Agency and the
Self-Centeredness of the Australian National Debate-
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Abstract: Australia has a Taiwan problem. It needs to be acknowledged and discussed—coolly, calmly, and rationally. But it is not the problem that international observers might expect. It does not concern how Australia contributes to regional security, a regional balance of power, or the cross-strait status quo. For most Australian policy elites, foreign policy journalists, commentators (especially on the far left but not exclusively so), and even the broader public, Australia's "Taiwan problem" centers on the question of whether Canberra would support the United States in a war with the People's Republic of China (PRC) over Taiwan. This is a potential strategic dilemma worthy of deep consideration and debate, but it is not ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Cross-Strait Tensions and Southeast Asia's Middle Powers: A Singaporean
Perspective-
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Abstract: Taiwan appears to be looming larger on the strategic radars of Southeast Asian states, and vice versa. Reflecting growing concerns regarding the rise in cross-strait tensions and the attendant risks of major-power conflict, traditionally reticent Southeast Asian leaders are displaying greater willingness to publicly express their fears. Taiwan, too, appears to be seeking closer ties with Southeast Asia, as seen most prominently through President Tsai Ing-wen's signature "New Southbound Policy," which aims to reduce the island's overwhelming economic dependence on China by diversifying its trade ties, especially with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).This essay argues, however, that there ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Vietnam in a Taiwan Contingency: Facing Multiple Crises
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Abstract: In a Taiwan strait contingency, Vietnam's robust engagement with Taiwan would pose multiple simultaneous challenges for Hanoi, notably economic contraction, humanitarian crises, and military contingencies in the South China Sea. Furthermore, a great-power conflict arising from this crisis would upend the central assumption behind Vietnam's omnidirectional foreign policy—a benign regional security environment without great-power warfare. Demanding crisis-management tasks and uncertainty over the new geopolitical era that could follow a major Taiwan contingency might prevent Hanoi from taking a strong stance during a crisis, with implications for its emerging middle-power status.Vietnam and Taiwan do not maintain ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- The Philippine Presidency and Middle-Power Agency
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Abstract: Based on its geographic proximity, coupled with its economic, demographic, military, and diplomatic weight, the Philippines is a middle power that—in theory—ought to have the agency to influence tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index, for instance, ranked the Philippines 16th out of 26 Asian countries for comprehensive power in 2023.1 Other regional countries in this middle range included Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam. However, the Philippines has not yet articulated a vision emphasizing its middle-power status, and prudence is required regarding any role it could play in a cross-strait conflict.2Drawing on the last two administrations of President Rodrigo ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- UK Agency on the Issue of Taiwan
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Abstract: The United Kingdom's role in the stability of the Taiwan flashpoint merits closer attention than it is typically afforded. The UK has global commitments to uphold the international rules-based order, including as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which raises expectations that it would act to oppose China's use of force or coercion to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.The UK is also focusing more attention and resources on the Indo-Pacific, as outlined in recent government reviews of its foreign and defense policies, which expand options for UK policymakers to contribute to regional stability. While the UK is sometimes regarded as a great power, it would not act unilaterally over Taiwan's ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Introduction
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Abstract: Who are the Taiwanese people' This seemingly simple question has been steadily taking on new complexity as an increasing number of Taiwan's citizens identify solely as Taiwanese rather than as Chinese or a combination of the two. The latest survey results from the National Chengchi University's Election Study Center reveal a steady shift—61.7% of respondents now see themselves as uniquely Taiwanese, a substantial increase from just 17.1% in 1992 when the survey began. This shift in identity is reshaping various aspects of Taiwanese life, including domestic politics and its relationships with global powers like China and the United States.At the crux of this transformation lies a fundamental question: How will ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Trends in Political Identity: Where Does Taiwan Go from Here'
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Abstract: Taiwan's 2024 presidential election resulted in a win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), awarding power to the party for an unprecedented third consecutive term under Lai Ching-te. His win can largely be attributed to the public's perception of more stable governance under the DPP as well as its preference for the DPP's cross-strait stance to that of the other major party in Taiwan politics, the Kuomintang (KMT).Yet the results were mixed for the DPP. Lai did not win by the same margins as his predecessor, President Tsai Ing-wen, reflecting popular discontent toward the party for failing to resolve economic woes that have long plagued Taiwan. As a result of failing to win a majority, the DPP lost control ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Unpacking Taiwan's Identities: Substance, Contexts, and Party Stances
toward China-
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Abstract: Taiwan's peaceful transition from authoritarian rule to liberal democracy in the 1990s has led not only to rapid economic growth but also to the building of a vibrant civil society. This democratic transition and the growth of civil society promoted Taiwan nationalism, given that the island's political institutions were different from those of authoritarian China.1 As Taiwan's identity has consolidated around its own institutions and systems, how does this identity shape Taiwan's policy toward China and the United States' What does Taiwan's own, local identity mean for party politics'This essay investigates the factors contributing to Taiwan's evolving sense of identity and explores how identity might shape the ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Small but Mighty: Third Parties in Taiwan's 2024 Election
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Abstract: When we think about political parties in Taiwan, we traditionally only consider the two big-tent parties: the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT, or Chinese Nationalist Party). But thanks to a unique electoral system, other small parties have played a critical role in Taiwan's electoral politics ever since democratization. Despite having never won the presidency, small parties have won important seats from mayorships to elected members of the Legislative Yuan. Due to their independence from the two big parties, small parties are able to advocate for or push through narrower or more radical policy issues. One example was the proposal of the New Power Party (NPP) to remove the name "Republic ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- "Cultural Taiwanese" and "Political Taiwanese": Two Sides of the Coin
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Abstract: At the Asia-Pacific Forward Forum held in Taipei on September 11, 2023, former Singaporean foreign minister George Yong-boon Yeo proposed his (in)famous "Chinese commonwealth." In response to a young Taiwanese who claimed to be "Taiwanese, not Chinese," Yeo interpreted this person's statement as mistakenly mixing a "political feeling" with cultural connection.1 Presuming that the political and cultural aspects of identity can be cleanly separated from each other erases the complex processes of identity development and expression. On the contrary, the political and cultural realms of identification are intimately interconnected, layered with history, and accomplished through communication. Constructing the current ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Demographic Demise' Taiwan's Aging and Shrinking Population
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Abstract: Asia's most vibrant democracy is rapidly aging. The youthful energy that powered a democracy movement in the 1980s and 1990s and asserted Taiwanese identity in the 2010s is dissipating. Taiwan has always been a small country—but it is soon to be a shrinking one, with its population projected to peak in 2030. The implications for Taiwan's future vitality, and indeed for its survival, are profound.This essay first elucidates ongoing demographic shifts in Taiwan, emphasizing changes in population size (it is shrinking) and population structure (it is aging). It then explores how those shifts are bringing about societal changes and imposing economic and national security challenges for which there are no easy answers. ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- The Ramifications of Changing Identities in Taiwan for U.S.-Taiwan
Relations-
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Abstract: This essay investigates the implications of Taiwan's evolving social and political identities for its international relations, particularly with the United States and mainland China. Specifically, it addresses two questions: (1) what do changing political and social identities in Taiwan mean for U.S.-Taiwan relations, and (2) what are the key takeaways or implications for the United States'The victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the 2024 presidential election is significant not only in the context of regional security but more importantly as a reflection of the intricate identity developments that have occurred in Taiwan. Notably, the outcome of this election has exposed the deep alienation of many ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Foreword to the Special Essay
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Abstract: Trade is an expression and measure of trust between people, businesses, and nations. People are at the heart of any thriving trade, and their free movement underpins the value of the intellectual exchange. If such exchanges are stymied, we place at stake a set of values in openness, democracy, and trust, all of which increasingly are the subject of an intensifying global geopolitical contest.Jeremy Neufeld writes in this Asia Policy special essay on one of the most important aspects of this contest's inflections: the nexus between trade, global leadership, and immigration policy. His is an eloquent disquisition on how the greatest strengths of the United States are built on the backs of immigrants, the formidable ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- The Immigration Advantage in the U.S.-China Strategic Contest for STEM
Talent-
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Abstract: Thanks to its open institutions, R&D infrastructure, and ability to attract the world's best and brightest, the United States is the world's most productive engine for progress at the frontier of science and technology. The United States has been able to accomplish much more than sheer population numbers would imply: although the United States has only 4% of the world's population, it produces 26% of its output, contains 30% of the top 2,000 global public companies, and wins 42% of all science Nobel Prizes.1A key ingredient in that success is the ability to draw top talent from the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) into its world-class R&D enterprises. Among U.S. Nobel Prize ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- U.S.-Japan-Australia Trilateralism: The Inner Core of Regional Order
Building and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific-
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Abstract: This article focuses on how the United States, Japan, and Australia are operationalizing their trilateral cooperation through the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue (TSD) to collectively meet the challenges of strategic competition.1 Other examples of strategically oriented "minilateralism," such as the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) and AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), have attracted significant media coverage and policy analysis in recent years, while the TSD has been comparatively neglected.2 This is a critical oversight as this U.S.-Japan-Australia trilateral serves as a core platform for upholding a regional rules-based order, the anchor of collective allied ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- China–North Korea Arms Trade from the Perspective of Chinese
Scholars-
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Abstract: We know exceedingly little about military ties between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) in the global arms trade. Investigations by the United Nations have revealed PRC support for DPRK weapon transfers to third-party countries as well as dual-use technology transfers from China to North Korea.1 Weapon transfers represent a critical issue for the United States and its allies given the potential for war in the region and that military advances by North Korean and Chinese forces will have direct consequences in any future military conflict.This article explores PRC-DPRK arms trade from the perspective of Chinese scholars at Chinese ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Unity through Division: Re-evaluating Democracy in Indonesia
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Abstract: A number of scholars have argued over the past few years that democracy in Indonesia is in decline. Electoral institutions established after the collapse of Suharto's New Order dictatorship in 1998 have been curtailed, and the state has continuously shrunk the public sphere through laws and regulations that violate basic human, political, and civil rights.However, this narrative of a democratic rollback has received surprisingly little critical examination and scrutiny in the scholarly community. The claim that Indonesian democracy is in decline can be contested on either empirical or conceptual grounds. Empirically, a critical evaluation of the literature could point out that many of the democratic achievements ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Islamic Political Alignment in Indonesia: Does It Truly Hold'
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Abstract: The recent upsurge in studying "democratic backsliding" is partly driven by the understanding that backsliding is a distinct concept from "political transition" in that it entails a slow, fine-grained degree of change associated with a declining trend in democratic quality and governance.1 Democratic backsliding is also different than the "hybrid regime"—a popular term used in the early 2000s—in the sense that the latter emphasizes its application to predominantly autocratic countries that allow a certain degree of electoral competition, whereas the former highlights the concerning progression when democracy has already become fairly established. Although not inevitable, the constant and unconstrained process of ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Strengthening As Well As Weakening: The Contradicting Roles of Islam in
Indonesian Democracy-
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Abstract: In Unity through Division: Political Islam, Representation and Democracy in Indonesia, Diego Fossati argues that political Islam is deeply rooted in Indonesian politics, making it always relevant from the colonial era through today's democratic era. Political Islam as a political ideology derives from clear differences among Indonesians on the role of or relationship between Islam and politics, resulting in a spectrum that positions the Islamist camp (those who would like a greater or dominant role for Islam) at one end and the pluralist camp (those who support a lesser role for Islam or no role for it in politics) at the other. In between the two camps lie the centrists.Fossati begins the book with a puzzle about ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Curating Citizens' Verdict on Indonesian Democracy
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Abstract: In recent years scholarly debates on democratic backsliding have become progressively abstract, with experts quibbling over definitional differences in an elusive quest for objective indicators to measure changes in democratic quality and gathering opinion data on perceptions of democratic trajectories from other experts. In the midst of this increasingly inward-looking scholarship, Diego Fossati's book Unity through Division: Political Islam, Representation and Democracy in Indonesia makes a refreshing attempt to guide us back to a much more basic question: How do ordinary citizens assess the democratic institutions that shape their lives'Drawing on a wide array of public opinion surveys and electoral data from ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- The Return of Aliran to the Lexicon of Indonesian Politics
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Abstract: To best appreciate Diego Fossati's book Unity through Division: Political Islam, Representation and Democracy in Indonesia from the angle of political developments in Indonesia, I would recommend that it be read in tandem with his article "The Resurgence of Ideology in Indonesia: Political Islam, Aliran, and Political Behaviour."1 Fossati does not use the word aliran (streams of political thought) in the book. Instead, he uses terms like "ideological division" and "partisan polarization" (p. 4) to refer to the same phenomenon of division between "pluralist" (both nationalist and traditionalist/Nahdlatul Ulama–affiliated Muslims) and "Islamist" (modernist and newer movements like Salafi, Partai Keadilan Sejahtera ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
- Author's Response: Unity through Division—Developing an Alternative
Account of Indonesian Politics-
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Abstract: I am very grateful to Asia Policy for arranging this review roundtable and to the five scholars of Indonesian politics who have generously shared their thoughts about my book Unity through Division: Political Islam, Representation and Democracy in Indonesia. I am humbled to read the praise in the reviews and glad to have the opportunity to address some of the criticism raised. In this essay, I will clarify some points about the argument of the book, respond to some issues regarding empirical support for the argument, and discuss my view of the book's contribution to the study of Indonesian politics.A first clarification regards the scope of the argument. In some of the contributions to this roundtable, the ... Read More
PubDate: 2024-05-17T00:00:00-05:00
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