Abstract: Inarticulate past: similarity properties of the ice–climate system and their implications for paleo-record attribution Mikhail Y. Verbitsky Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 879–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, 2022 Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis of a dynamical model on orbital timescales to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that major past events could have been produced by physically dissimilar processes making the task of paleo-record attribution to a particular phenomenon fundamentally difficult if not impossible. PubDate: Tue, 10 May 2022 20:30:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-879-2022 2022
Abstract: Governing Change: A Dynamical Systems Approach to Understanding the Stability of Environmental Governance Nusrat Molla, John DeIonno, Thilo Gross, and Jonathan Herman Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-16,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) How the structure of resource governance systems affects how they respond to change is not yet well understood. We model the stability of thousands of different governance systems, revealing that greater diversity and interdependence among actors is destabilizing, while venue shopping and advocacy organizations are stabilizing. This study suggests that complexity in governance corresponds to responsiveness to change, while providing insight into managing them to balance adaptivity and stability. PubDate: Fri, 29 Apr 2022 17:44:40 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-162022
Abstract: Deploying Solar Radiation Modification to limit warming under a current climate policy scenario results in a multi-century commitment Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-17,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) entails technologies that artificially cool the climate but do not act on the cause of climate change. We assess the time of commitment to SRM if it was implemented on top of a current policy scenario to keep warming to 1.5 °C until emission cuts and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) have reduced GHGs sufficiently. Here, SRM, even when combined with high CDR, would come with century-long legacies of deployment, implying centuries of costs, risks and side effects. PubDate: Fri, 29 Apr 2022 17:44:40 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-172022
Abstract: MESMER-M: an Earth system model emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022 Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments. PubDate: Thu, 28 Apr 2022 17:44:40 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-851-2022 2022
Abstract: STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations Claudia Tebaldi, Abigail Snyder, and Kalyn Dorheim Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-14,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Impact modelers need many future scenarios to characterize the consequences of climate change. The climate modeling community cannot fully meet this need because of the computational cost of climate models. Emulators have fallen short of providing the entire range of inputs that modern impact models require. Our proposal, STITCHES, meet these demands in a comprehensive way and may thus support a fully integrated impact research effort, and save resources for the climate modeling enterprise. PubDate: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 17:44:40 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-142022
Abstract: To weight or not to weight: assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains Adrienne Wootten, Elias Massoud, Duane Waliser, and Huikyo Lee Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-15,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting are increasingly used for climate assessments. This study examines the sensitivities of model weighting and multi-model ensemble means across multiple dimensions using projections in the south central United States. Model weighting and ensemble means are sensitive to the domain and variable used. This study recommends that multiple weighting strategies be used with consideration for the needs of the research project or planning exercise. PubDate: Fri, 22 Apr 2022 22:58:29 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-152022
Abstract: Divergent historical GPP trends among state-of-the-art multi-model simulations and satellite-based products Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022 We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations. PubDate: Tue, 19 Apr 2022 22:58:29 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-833-2022 2022
Abstract: Indian Ocean marine biogeochemical variability and its feedback on simulated South Asia climate Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022 The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers. PubDate: Wed, 13 Apr 2022 07:35:27 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-809-2022 2022
Abstract: Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022 The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies. PubDate: Wed, 13 Apr 2022 07:35:27 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-779-2022 2022
Abstract: Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau Bojie Fu, Xutong Wu, Zhuangzhuang Wang, Xilin Wu, and Shuai Wang Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 795–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-795-2022, 2022 To understand the dynamics of a coupled human and natural system (CHANS) and promote its sustainability, we propose a conceptual pattern–process–service–sustainability cascade framework. The use of this framework is systematically illustrated by a review of CHANS research experience in China's Loess Plateau in terms of coupling landscape patterns and ecological processes, linking ecological processes to ecosystem services, and promoting social–ecological sustainability. PubDate: Wed, 13 Apr 2022 07:35:27 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-795-2022 2022
Abstract: Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022 Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region. PubDate: Mon, 11 Apr 2022 15:36:58 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022 2022
Abstract: Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning Markku Viitasalo and Erik Bonsdorff Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 711–747, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-711-2022, 2022 Climate change has multiple effects on Baltic Sea species, communities and ecosystem functioning. Effects on species distribution, eutrophication and trophic interactions are expected. We review these effects, identify knowledge gaps and draw conclusions based on recent (2010–2021) field, experimental and modelling research. An extensive summary table is compiled to highlight the multifaceted impacts of climate-change-driven processes in the Baltic Sea. PubDate: Mon, 11 Apr 2022 15:36:58 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-711-2022 2022
Abstract: Contrasting projection of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the Equatorial Pacific under high warming scenario Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Jerry Tjiputra, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, and Andrew Yool Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-12,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalously CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. Climate projections under the business-as-usual scenario show a reversal of this behaviour is projected by half of Earth System Models. Changes in Revelle factor and subsurface distribution of dissolved Inorganic carbon are the two leading factors for this reversal. PubDate: Fri, 08 Apr 2022 15:36:58 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-122022
Abstract: CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not' Michael J. Prather Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, 2022 Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability). PubDate: Tue, 05 Apr 2022 21:03:45 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-703-2022 2022
Abstract: Evaluation of convection-permitting extreme precipitation simulations for the south of France Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022 This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies. PubDate: Fri, 01 Apr 2022 21:03:45 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-687-2022 2022
Abstract: Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea Karol Kuliński, Gregor Rehder, Eero Asmala, Alena Bartosova, Jacob Carstensen, Bo Gustafsson, Per O. J. Hall, Christoph Humborg, Tom Jilbert, Klaus Jürgens, H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Michael Naumann, Jørgen E. Olesen, Oleg Savchuk, Andreas Schramm, Caroline P. Slomp, Mikhail Sofiev, Anna Sobek, Beata Szymczycha, and Emma Undeman Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 633–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, 2022 The paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, P) external loads; their transformations in the coastal zone; changes in organic matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability); and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. Furthermore, this paper also focuses on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. PubDate: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 21:03:45 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-633-2022 2022
Abstract: Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022 Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe. PubDate: Wed, 30 Mar 2022 21:03:45 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-613-2022 2022
Abstract: Widespread greening suggests increased dry-season plant water availability in the Rio Santa valley, Peruvian Andes Lorenz Hänchen, Cornelia Klein, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Pierluigi Calanca, and Georg Wohlfahrt Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 595–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, 2022 To date, farmers' perceptions of hydrological changes do not match analysis of meteorological data. In contrast to rainfall data, we find greening of vegetation, indicating increased water availability in the past decades. The start of the season is highly variable, making farmers' perceptions comprehensible. We show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has complex effects on vegetation seasonality but does not drive the greening we observe. Improved onset forecasts could help local farmers. PubDate: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 21:03:45 +020 DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-595-2022 2022
Abstract: A 20-year satellite-reanalysis-based climatology of extreme precipitation characteristics over the Sinai Peninsula Mohsen Soltani, Bert Hamelers, Abbas Mofidi, Ties van der Hoeven, Arie Staal, Stefan C. Dekker, Joel Arnault, Patrick Laux, Harald Kunstmann, and Maarten Lanters Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-10,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The temporal changes and spatial patterns of the precipitation events do not show a homogenous tendency across the Sinai Peninsula. The Mediterranean cyclones accompanied by the Red Sea -and Persian Troughs are responsible for the majority of Sinai's extreme rainfall events. The cyclone-tracking captures 156 cyclones (rainfall ≥ 10 mm/day) either formed within -or transferred to the Mediterranean basin and precipitated over the Sinai. PubDate: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 15:23:49 +010 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-102022
Abstract: Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Celine J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-11,2022 Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Anthropogogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling, and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts. PubDate: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 15:23:49 +010 DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-112022
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