Abstract: Earthquake-induced landslide monitoring and survey by means of InSAR Tayeb Smail, Mohamed Abed, Ahmed Mebarki, and Milan Lazecky Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, 2022 The Sentinel-1 SAR datasets and Sentinel-2 data are used in this study to investigate the impact of natural hazards (earthquakes and landslides) on struck areas. In InSAR processing, the use of DInSAR, CCD methods, and the LiCSBAS tool permit generation of time-series analysis of ground changes. Three land failures were detected in the study area. CCD is suitable to map landslides that may remain undetected using DInSAR. In Grarem, the failure rim is clear in coherence and phase maps. PubDate: Fri, 13 May 2022 20:19:53 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022 2022
Abstract: Assessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysis Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, 2022 The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis. PubDate: Tue, 10 May 2022 20:19:53 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022 2022
Abstract: Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China Lulu Liu, Jiangbo Gao, and Shaohong Wu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1577–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, 2022 The impact of extreme events is increasing with global warming. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural-disaster risk, this study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of floods in China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic risks posed by floods, and determines the integrated risk levels. Global warming of 1.5 °C can effectively reduce the population affected and the economic risks of floods. PubDate: Tue, 10 May 2022 20:19:53 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022 2022
Abstract: First application of the Integrated Karst Aquifer Vulnerability (IKAV) method – potential and actual vulnerability in Yucatán, Mexico Miguel Moreno-Gómez, Carolina Martínez-Salvador, Rudolf Liedl, Catalin Stefan, and Julia Pacheco Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1591–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, 2022 Current vulnerability methods, as tools to protect groundwater resources from pollution, present some limitations and drawbacks: the roles of population and economic activities are not considered by such methods. The methodology presented in this work combines natural characteristics and human-driven conditions of a given region to improve the process of groundwater vulnerability analysis. Results indicate the reliability of this alternative method to improve groundwater protection strategies. PubDate: Tue, 10 May 2022 20:19:53 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022 2022
Abstract: Investigation of An Extreme Rainfall Event during 8–12 December 2018 over Central Vietnam. Part I: Analysis and Cloud-Resolving Simulation Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-82,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) 1. A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated and its simulation result using a cloud-resolving model is evaluated. 2. Key factors in this event include the combined effect of northeasterly wind that originated from northern China, easterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature. 3. A cloud-resolving model is applied to study an extreme rainfall event in central Vietnam, and the results are very impressive. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 23:17:56 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-822022
Abstract: Time of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-127,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CEs probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering both marginal and dependence properties changes for future risk assessments due to compound events. PubDate: Mon, 09 May 2022 23:17:56 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-1272022
Abstract: Brief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically triggered earthquake swarms associated with Storm Alex Małgorzata Chmiel, Maxime Godano, Marco Piantini, Pierre Brigode, Florent Gimbert, Maarten Bakker, Françoise Courboulex, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, David Ambrois, and Margot Chapuis Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1541–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, 2022 On 2 October 2020, the French Maritime Alps were struck by an extreme rainfall event caused by Storm Alex. Here, we show that seismic data provide the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves along the Vésubie River. We also detect 114 small local earthquakes triggered by the rainwater weight and/or its infiltration into the ground. This study paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and subsurface. PubDate: Fri, 06 May 2022 23:17:56 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022 2022
Abstract: System vulnerability to flood events and risk assessment of railway systems based on national and river basin scales in China Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022 We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure. PubDate: Wed, 04 May 2022 17:18:19 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022 2022
Abstract: The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: Evolution and the role of meteorological conditions Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-116,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatia history has been reconstructed and analysed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. Low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event. PubDate: Wed, 04 May 2022 17:18:19 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-1162022
Abstract: Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno A. Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José M. C. Pereira Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-107,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patches connectivity, and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to create fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes. PubDate: Mon, 02 May 2022 17:18:19 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-1072022
Abstract: Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022 Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted. PubDate: Wed, 27 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022 2022
Abstract: Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the doublet earthquakes on 26 December 2006 An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-126,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore southern Taiwan on the 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation, propagation, as well as unexpected consequences at the coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the tsunami source characteristics, and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in insular countries of Taiwan such as wave trapping, edge waves, and shelf resonance. PubDate: Wed, 27 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-1262022
Abstract: Machine-learning blends of geomorphic descriptors: value and limitations for flood hazard assessment across large floodplains Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, 2022 We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research. PubDate: Tue, 26 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022 2022
Abstract: Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022 The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. PubDate: Tue, 26 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022 2022
Abstract: Design and Testing of a Multi-Hazard Risk Rapid Assessment Questionnaire for Hill Communities in the Indian Himalayan Region Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazard. To minimize loss, proper planning and execution in the right direction is necessary. Data collection is base for any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand, pictorial and identify high-risk components of any building (structural & non-structural) and campus from multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilize the budget in a prioritized way. This study is gone through SWOT of the existing risk assessment form. PubDate: Tue, 26 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-912022
Abstract: Ground motion variability in Israel from 3-D simulations of M 6 and M 7 earthquakes Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1451–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, 2022 Due to an insufficient number of recorded moderate–strong earthquakes in Israel, estimating the ground motions and the subsequent seismic hazard mitigation becomes a challenge. To fill this gap, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of moderate and moderate–strong earthquakes. We examined the ground motions and their variability through a self-developed statistical model. However, the model cannot fully capture the ground motion variability due to the local seismotectonic setting. PubDate: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022 2022
Abstract: Multi-mission altimetry data to evaluate hydrodynamic model-based stage-discharge rating curves in flood-prone Mahanadi River, India Pankaj R. Dhote, Joshal K. Bansal, Vaibhav Garg, Praveen K. Thakur, and Ankit Agarwal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-101,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In the present paper, we have developed framework to establish virtual stage-discharge gauging network in sparsely gauged basin using hydrodynamic modelling and satellite altimetry data. The publication of the work will provide more insights to hydraulic community dealing with flood hazard in sparsely gauged basins, on how to monitor extreme river flow events using remote sensing data at ungauged locations. PubDate: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 15:23:08 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-1012022
Abstract: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for Snowfall Prediction Models in South Korea Moon-Soo Song, Hong-Sik Yun, Jae-Joon Lee, and Sang-Guk Yum Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-118,2022 Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this study, emerging engineering techniques such as machine learning and deep learning technique was applied to predict heavy snowfall prediction in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, it was observed that the predictive model using the RFR algorithm had the best performance based on a comparison between the observed and predicted data. In addition, it was observed that the performance of the ensemble models (RFR and XGB) was better than that of the single regression models. PubDate: Fri, 22 Apr 2022 17:51:46 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-1182022
Abstract: Gridded flood depth estimates from satellite-derived inundations Seth Bryant, Heather McGrath, and Mathieu Boudreault Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022, 2022 The advent of new satellite technologies improves our ability to study floods. While the depth of water at flooded buildings is generally the most important variable for flood researchers, extracting this accurately from satellite data is challenging. The software tool presented here accomplishes this, and tests show the tool is more accurate than competing tools. This achievement unlocks more detailed studies of past floods and improves our ability to plan for and mitigate disasters. PubDate: Thu, 21 Apr 2022 17:51:46 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022 2022
Abstract: Assessing the importance of conditioning factor selection in landslide susceptibility for the province of Belluno (region of Veneto, northeastern Italy) Sansar Raj Meena, Silvia Puliero, Kushanav Bhuyan, Mario Floris, and Filippo Catani Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1395–1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1395-2022, 2022 The study investigated the importance of the conditioning factors in predicting landslide occurrences using the mentioned models. In this paper, we evaluated the importance of the conditioning factors (features) in the overall prediction capabilities of the statistical and machine learning algorithms. PubDate: Thu, 21 Apr 2022 17:51:46 +020 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1395-2022 2022
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