A  B  C  D  E  F  G  H  I  J  K  L  M  N  O  P  Q  R  S  T  U  V  W  X  Y  Z  

  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
The end of the list has been reached or no journals were found for your choice.
Similar Journals
Journal Cover
International Journal of Biometeorology
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.897
Citation Impact (citeScore): 3
Number of Followers: 3  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1432-1254 - ISSN (Online) 0020-7128
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2469 journals]
  • Ambient temperature exposure and risk of outpatient visits for
           dermatologic diseases in Xinxiang, China: a time-series analysis

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract The effect of ambient temperature on dermatologic diseases has received widespread attention. Previous studies have shown that ambient temperature might affect specific dermatologic diseases, but results were inconsistent. This study aims to assess the short-term effect of ambient temperature on outpatient visits due to dermatologic diseases (DMs) in Xinxiang, China. Daily DMs outpatient visits, mean temperature, mean relative humidity, and air pollution data of Xinxiang were retrieved from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to analyze the effect of ambient temperature on DMs outpatients. We controlled several potential confounding factors such as the long-term trend, public holiday, day of the week, humidity, and air pollutants (NO2, PM2.5). Finally, two more stratification analysis was conducted by age and gender. A total of 164,270 outpatients of DMs were enrolled during our study, and the daily mean visits were 113. The estimated effect of temperature on DMs was nonlinear. Heat temperature would exacerbate outpatients of dermatologic diseases. With a reference median temperature (17 °C), the effect of temperature on DMs was most pronounced at lag0–14; exposure to heat (32 °C, 99th) was associated with 1.565 (95% CI: 1.266–1.934) increased risk of outpatients for DMs. Stratification analysis showed that citizens of young ages were susceptive to heat; both genders had a similar relationship between temperature and DMs risk. This study highlights that ambient temperature was associated with DMs outpatients; heat temperature might aggravate DMs risk. The health hazards of heat temperature required more attention, and more effective prevention measurements should be designed and implemented to curb global warming.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Heat exposure misclassification: Do current methods of classifying diurnal
           range in individually experienced temperatures and heat indices accurately
           reflect personal exposure'

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Wearable sensors have been used to collect information on individual exposure to excessive heat and humidity. To date, no consistent diurnal classification method has been established, potentially resulting in missed opportunities to understand personal diurnal patterns in heat exposure. Using individually experienced temperatures (IET) and heat indices (IEHI) collected in the southeastern United States, this work aims to determine whether current methods of classifying IETs and IEHIs accurately characterize “day,” which is typically the warmest conditions, and “night,” which is typically the coolest conditions. IET and IEHI data from four locations were compared with the closest hourly weather station. Different day/night classifications were compared to determine efficacy. Results indicate that diurnal IET and IEHI ranges are higher than fixed-site ranges. Maximum IETs and IEHIs are warmer and occur later in the day than ambient conditions. Minimum IETs are lower and occur earlier in the day than at weather stations, which conflicts with previous assumptions that minimum temperatures occur at night. When compared to commonly used classification methods, a method of classifying day and night based on sunrise and sunset times best captured the occurrence of maximum IETs and IEHIs. Maximum IETs and IEHIs are often identified later in the evening, while minimum IETs and IEHIs occur throughout the day. These findings support future research focusing on nighttime heat exposure, which can exacerbate heat-related health issues, and diurnal patterns of personal exposure throughout the entire day as individual patterns do not necessarily follow the diurnal pattern seen in ambient conditions.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • A first approach to human biometeorology research in Brazil: a systematic
           review and meta-analysis

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract This systematic review aims to give an overview of the diversity of research areas related to human biometeorology in Brazil. The main focus of this paper addresses research trends, represented by published papers with national and international authorship, main contributions and shortcomings, as well as challenges and prospects of research in this area of study. An extensive literature search was conducted in the Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct databases so as to identify relevant publication output up to July 2021 related to the research area. The screening resulted in 96 studies chosen for full-text reading. Overall, results indicated a reduced amount of articles on the subject matter published internationally, with noticeable gaps in research in some regions of the country, such as the Amazon region and in the Brazilian Midwest region. Research gaps in relevant areas have been identified with limited output in the climate dimensions of tourism, vector-borne diseases, mortality and morbidity in urban centers. Such gaps should further encourage researchers to engage in research focused on those areas.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Warming/cooling effect of cropland expansion during the 1900s ~ 2010s
           in the Heilongjiang Province, Northeast of China

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Land cover change (LCC) significantly changed the local/regional temperature. This paper attempts to reveal the effects of cropland expansion in different ways on temperature change from the 1900s to 2010s in Heilongjiang Province. To reach this goal, we conducted four simulation research schemes with the coupled Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)-Noah model to investigate the warming/cooling effect of cropland expansion. The results show that cropland expansion exerted different effects with different land-use type conversions. In the last century, the areas with grassland-to-cropland and wetland-to-cropland transition show the warming effect, and the average surface temperature in Heilongjiang Province increased by 0.023 ℃ and 0.024 ℃, respectively. The areas with forest-to-cropland transition show the cooling effect, in which the average temperature decreased by 0.103 ℃. The variation of air temperature is mainly caused by the variation of surface reflectance and surface net radiation flux. The results provide evidence that cropland expansion changes to biophysical landscape characteristics, warming/cooling the land surface and thus enhancing/reducing the temperature, and lead to regional climate change eventually.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Climatic conditions and prevalence of melanistic snakes—contrasting
           effects of warm springs and mild winters

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Climate change is one of the greatest challenges that wildlife is facing. Rapid shifts in climatic conditions may accelerate evolutionary changes in populations as a result of strong selective pressure. Most studies focus on the impact of climatic conditions on phenologies and annual cycles, whereas there are fewer reports of empirical support for climate-driven changes in the phenotypic variability of free-living populations. We investigated whether climatic variables explain the prevalence of colour polymorphism in a population of the grass snake (Natrix natrix) with two morphotypes, the melanistic and non-melanistic ones, in the period 1981–2013. We found that the prevalence of the black phenotype was negatively related to spring temperature and winter harshness, expressed as the number of snow days. According to the thermal melanism hypothesis, a high predation rate during warmer springs may override relaxed thermal benefits and vice versa, i.e. black individuals may perform better than typical ones when thermal conditions in spring are unfavourable. In turn, because they are smaller, melanistic individuals may be exposed to a higher risk of winter mortality, particularly during longer winters. We highlight the need for more studies on the effects of climatic conditions on temporal variation in melanism prevalence in other populations and species as well as in various geographic regions.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Combining stakeholder perception and ecological approaches for assessing
           vulnerability of floodplain wetlands in changing climate: a regional study
           

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Wetland fisheries are most vulnerable to climate and anthropogenic change, and therefore, vulnerability assessment is essential for the formulation of prudent management strategies. In the present study, vulnerability assessment was carried out in nine floodplain wetlands from three districts of West Bengal using stakeholder perception and ecological conditions. In absence of long-term time series data on ecology and fisheries of wetlands, stakeholder perception study was carried out to assess the vulnerability status to climate change. Phased interviews were conducted using structured questionnaires to study the stakeholder perception on climatic variability and changes in ecology and fisheries of wetlands over the past 15 years. Climate data used for climate trend analysis was procured from Indian Meteorological Department. Ecological parameters were studied from the wetlands seasonally from January 2018 to December 2018. Analysis of climatic variables for last three decades revealed a warming trend and decreasing rainfall in the study area. The temperature anomaly ranged from + 0.07 to + 0.31 °C while rainfall anomaly ranged from − 61.41 to − 372.62 mm. Respondents showed high level of consensus (75.3%) on climate change awareness. The respondents were aware of the fact that climate anomaly affects ecology and fisheries of wetlands in most of the cases with consensus ranging from 67.8 to 94.7%. The studied wetlands showed 2 to 81.28% reduction in depth, 21.52–61.29% reduction in species diversity, and 30–95% macrophyte infestation. The stakeholder perception-based vulnerability scores ranged from 18 to 31 and indicated 6 out of 9 wetlands (66.6%) as highly vulnerable and the rest as moderately vulnerable. The ecological vulnerability scores ranged from 17 to 21 and indicated 5 out of 9 wetlands (55.6%) as highly vulnerable and 4 wetlands in the moderately vulnerable range. Although both the approaches used in the present study categorized the studied wetlands as moderately to highly vulnerable, the category of some of the wetlands varied in both the approaches. This suggests that utilizing a single approach may not give precise vulnerability status of an ecosystem. Use of combined approaches for construction of a composite vulnerability index covering different aspects impacted by climate change might present a better picture of the vulnerability status and aid in formulation of effective mitigation/management plan.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Acute physiological response to a normobaric hypoxic exposure: sex
           differences

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Although preliminary studies suggested sex-related differences in physiological responses to altitude/hypoxia, controlled studies from standardised exposures to normobaric hypoxia are largely lacking. Hence, the goals of this study were to provide information on cardiorespiratory responses to a 7-h normobaric hypoxia exposure and to explore potential differences between men and women. In this crossover study, a total of 15 men and 14 women were subjected to a 7-h exposure in normoxia (FiO2: 21%) and normobaric hypoxia (FiO2: 15%). Values of peripheral oxygen saturation, heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and respiratory gases were recorded every hour (8 time points), and oxygen saturation every 30 min (15 time points). Compared to normoxia, exposure to hypoxia significantly increased minute ventilation from baseline to hour 7 in males (+ 71%) and females (+ 40%), significantly greater in men (p < 0.05). A steeper decrease in peripheral oxygen saturation until 2.5 h in hypoxia was seen in females compared to males (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the ventilatory response to hypoxia was more pronounced in men compared to women. Moreover, during the first hours in hypoxia, peripheral oxygen saturation dropped more markedly in women than in men, likely due an initially lower and/or less efficient ventilatory response to moderate hypoxia. Those findings should be considered when performing interventions for therapy or prevention in normobaric hypoxia. Nevertheless, further large-scaled and well-controlled studies are needed.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Physiological, blood-biochemical and behavioural changes of Ghoongroo pigs
           in seasonal heat stress of a hot-humid tropical environment

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract The present study investigated the effect of seasonal heat stress on the physiological, behavioural and blood bio-chemical profile of adult Ghoongroo pigs (1.5–2 years of age) of different physiological groups. Thirty Ghoongroo pigs (10 boars, 10 non-pregnant sows and 10 pregnant sows) were allotted to individual pens. The study continued for 1 year covering three main seasons, i.e. summer (March–June), rainy (July–October) and winter (November–February) season. Temperature humidity index was significantly (P < 0.05) higher in summer (83.2 ± 0.47) followed by rainy (68.5 ± 1.13) and winter (66.8 ± 0.67) seasons, which indicated that pigs were exposed to heat stress during summer. Rectal temperature and pulse rate were not affected by group × season interaction but were affected by group (P = 0.002) and season (P < 0.001), which were usually greater during summer than during winter and in boars than in pregnant sows. Respiration rate was affected by group × season interaction (P = 0.002), which was greater in boars than in non-pregnant and pregnant sows during summer and rainy season but was similar in winter among the groups. Total erythrocytes, leucocytes counts, and cortisol levels were influenced by group (P < 0.001), season (P < 0.001) and group × season interaction (P < 0.001), which increased in summer compared with winter. Sodium and potassium concentrations in serum were not affected by group and group × season interaction but were affected by season (P < 0.001), which were lower in summer than in winter. All behaviour activities (standing, resting and roaming time, urination, fighting and drinking frequency) were affected by group (P < 0.001), season (P < 0.001) and group × season interaction (P < 0.001), except eating time that was only influenced by season. The present study suggested that Ghoongroo pigs experienced heat stress during summer, which was reflected in physiological, blood-biochemical and behavioural alterations.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Interaction of aerosol with meteorological parameters and its effect on
           the cash crop in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, India

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Regional weather variability depends on various meteorological variables such as temperature and rainfall. The current research focuses on the variability and trends in annual aerosol optical depth (AOD), temperature (T), and rainfall (RF) in 11 Vidarbha districts. The annual trend analysis of AOD, T, and R is determined using the non-parametric Sen slope and Mann–Kendall (MK) test at a 5% significant level from 1980 to 2019. Annual T and AOD indicate a substantial increase in this study, whereas rainfall shows a non-significant trend (MK, test) over the study period. According to Sen’s slope trends, the relatively high rainfall area (Chandrapur = 1.273 and Garchiroli = 4.06) got positive trends, but Gondia and Bhandara districts have negative (Sen’s slope =  − 2.79 and − 2.56) trends. The moderate rainfall areas are showing a less negative Sen slope (Wardha =  − 0.21, Washim =  − 1.13 and Yavatmal =  − 2.75), whereas Nagpur districts’ Sen’s slope shows a positive value (Sens’s slope = 0.72). The assured rainfall area districts show Sen’s slope trends are positive (Akola = 0.45, Amravati = 1.17 and Buldana = 0.42). Sen’s slope trend indicates rising rainfall, whereas negative trends indicate decreasing rainfall in the time series. This study has also looked at the effect of RF, AOD, and T on the last two decades’ cash crop production (2000–2019) for Vidarbha districts. The relationship between rainfall departure (DRF) and cash crop yield has also been highlighted. Five cash crops, such as cotton (Ct), total cereals (TCrl), total oilseeds (TOsd), total pulses (TPS), and sugarcane (Sc), are selected for the present study.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Winter warming stimulates vegetative growth and alters fruit quality of
           blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum)

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract The rate of global warming varies in magnitude between seasons, with warming being more pronounced in winter and spring than in summer and autumn at high latitudes. Winter warming can have profound effects on dormancy release and spring phenology of perennial fruit crops, but potential follow-on impacts on growth, fruit yield or quality have only rarely been investigated. We studied the effects of mild winter warming on spring phenology, current year shoot growth, cropping performance and fruit quality in four field-grown cultivars of blackcurrant with different chilling requirements. Plants were exposed to ambient or slightly elevated (+ 0.5 °C) temperatures from early October to mid-April the following year. Winter warming had few effects on spring phenology and fruit yield, but caused significant changes in berry contents of phenolic compounds and a reduction in soluble sugars. Increased vegetative growth of warmed plants likely accounts for the changes in berry quality. The results demonstrate a persistent effect of winter warming on shoot growth, which indirectly changes fruit quality.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Insect pest scenario in Uttarakhand Himalayas, India, under changing
           climatic conditions

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract The Himalayan mountains are early indicators of climate change, wherein slight changes in climate can lead to a drastic variation in faunal diversity, distribution, invasion of fauna into higher altitudes, rapid population growth, shortening of life cycle and increased number of overwintering species. The insects best represent the faunal diversity. In recent years, due to variation in pattern of rainfall and temperature regimes, several insect pests have moved northwards and are posing great threat to hill agriculture. Few among them are greenhouse whiteflies, thrips and mites in protected cultivation system; blister beetles on flowers of cereals, pulses and oilseeds; invasive insect pests like fall armyworm of maize and tomato pin worm and sporadic pests like grasshoppers that are reaching a status of major key pest in various crops. Keeping in mind the phenomenon of climate change and associated changes in pest population, the present article focuses on emerging insect pest problems in cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds and vegetables of Indian Himalayas, along with their changing population density with respect to different climatic parameters, the per cent increase in the pest damage over the years and their potential of gaining the status of major pests in near future and causing huge economic losses to hill agriculture.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • High-resolution wind speed forecast system coupling numerical weather
           prediction and machine learning for agricultural studies — a case study
           from South Korea

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Forecasting wind speed near the surface with high-spatial resolution is beneficial in agricultural management. There is a discrepancy between the wind speed information required for agricultural management and that produced by weather agencies. To improve crop yield and increase farmers’ incomes, wind speed prediction systems must be developed that are customized for agricultural needs. The current study developed a high-resolution wind speed forecast system for agricultural purposes in South Korea. The system produces a wind speed forecast at 3 m aboveground with 100-m spatial resolution across South Korea. Logarithmic wind profile, power law, random forests, support vector regression, and extreme learning machine were tested as candidate methods for the downscaling wind speed data. The wind speed forecast system developed in this study provides good performance, particularly in inland areas. The machine learning–based methods give the better performance than traditional methods for downscaling wind speed data. Overall, the random forests are considered the best downscaling method in this study. Root mean square error and mean absolute error of wind speed prediction for 48 h using random forests are approximately 0.8 m/s and 0.5 m/s, respectively.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Dependence of maize yield on hydrothermal factors in various agro-climatic
           zones of the Rostov region of Russia in the context of climate change

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Trends in mean monthly temperature and precipitation during the growing season and their effects on the maize yield were analyzed at the Zimovnikovsky (Zim) and Rostov (Ros) state variety plots (SVPs), located in different agro-climatic zones of the Rostov region. For these two SVPs, in the period of 1975–2019, the Mann–Kendall test showed a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in mean temperature (0.70 and 0.52 °C/decade) and a trend of decreased total precipitation (− 14.81 and − 10.40 mm/decade) during the maize growing season. The dependence of the maize yield on hydrothermal factors was estimated for the period of 2011–2019 using the Pearson correlation coefficient (p < 0.05). The mean temperature in September at Zim negatively (r =  − 0.78), and in June at Ros positively (r = 0.77) correlated with yield, which explained, according to the value of the coefficient of determination (R2), up to 60.7% and 58.7%, respectively, of the interannual variability of the maize yield. The precipitation in July at the Zim and Ros positively correlated (r = 0.75 and r = 0.71) with yield and explained up to 55.9% and 50.6%, respectively, of the interannual variability of the maize yield. The total amount of precipitation during the growing season at Zim was the dominant factor, explaining up to 75.7% of the interannual variability of maize yield. The continuation of the observed climatic trends during the growing season could lead in the next decade to both a decrease in the maize yield by an average of 0.25 t/ha at Zim and an increase in the maize yield by an average of 0.42 t/ha at Ros.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Increased heat stress risk for maize in arid-based climates as affected by
           climate change: threats and solutions

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Heat stress in combination with drought has become the biggest concern and threat for maize yield production, especially in arid and hot regions. Accordingly, different optimal solutions should be considered in order to maintain maize production and reduce the risk of heat stress under the changing climate. In the current study, the risk of heat stress across Iranian maize agro-ecosystems was analyzed in terms of both intensity and frequency. The study areas comprised 16 provinces and 24 locations classified into five climate categories: arid and hot, arid and temperate, semi-arid and hot, semi-arid and temperate, and semi-arid and cold. The impact of heat stress on maize under a future climate was based on a 5‐multi‐model ensemble under two optimistic and pessimistic emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for 2040–2070 using the APSIM crop model. Simulation results illustrated that in the period of 2040–2070, intensity and the frequency of heat stress events increased by 2.37 °C and 79.7%, respectively, during maize flowering time compared to the baseline. The risk of heat stress would be almost 100% in hot regions in the future climate under current management practices, mostly because of the increasing high-risk window for heat stress which will result in a yield reduction of 0.83 t ha−1. However, under optimal management practices,farmers will economically obtain acceptable yields (6.6 t ha−1). The results also indicated that the high-risk windows in the future will be lengthening from 12 to 33 days in different climate types. Rising temperatures in cold regions as a result of global warming would provide better climate situations for maize growth, so that under optimistic emission scenarios and optimal management practices, farmers will be able to boost grain yield up to 9.2 t ha−1. Overall, it is concluded that farmers in hot and temperate regions need to be persuaded to choose optimal sowing dates and new maize cultivars which are well adapted to each climate to reduce heat stress risk and to shift maize production to cold regions. Graphical abstract
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular disease
           hospitalisations among farmers in suburban northwest China

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a severe public health and social issue in China. However, in northwest China, evidence on the association between ambient temperature and CVD hospitalisations in suburban farmers is somewhat limited. We collected CVD hospitalisations and meteorological data (2012–2015) in Zhangye suburbs and assessed the temperature-related risk and burden of admission by fitting a distributed lag nonlinear model to probe the relationship between ambient temperature and CVD hospitalisations among farmers in suburban northwest China. The results show that 23,921 cases of CVD admissions were recorded from 2012 to 2015. There was a “U-shaped” association between temperature and hospitalisations. Compared with the minimum admissions temperature (MAT) at 15.3 °C, the cumulative relative risk (RR) over lag 0–21 days was 1.369 (95% CI 0.980–1.911) for extreme cold temperature (1st percentile, –15 °C), 1.353 (95% CI 1.063–1.720) for moderate cold (5th percentile, –11 °C), 1.415 (95% CI 1.117–1.792) for extreme heat (99th percentile, 26 °C), and 1.241 (95% CI 1.053–1.464) for moderate heat (95th percentile, 24 °C). Female farmers were more susceptible to low and high temperatures than male farmers. Farmers aged ≥ 65 years old were more sensitive to low temperatures, while farmers aged < 65 years old were more sensitive to high temperatures. A total of 13.4% (3,208 cases) of the hospitalisation burden for CVD were attributed to temperature exposure, with the moderate range of temperatures accounting for the most significant proportion (12.2%). Ambient temperature, primarily moderate temperatures, might be an essential factor for cardiovascular-related hospitalisations among farmers in suburban northwest China.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Vulnerability assessments in dairy cattle farms based on individual
           sensitivity to heat stress

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Climate change (CC) is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events, which renewed interest in heat stress (HS) effects on dairy cattle farms. Resilience is a key concept that should be considered to better understand the dairy farms exposure to HS and to combat CC-related risks. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the aspects of HS vulnerability for Tunisian dairy cattle farming systems. Historical milk test-day records from official milk recording were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by public weather stations. Firstly, different models relying in two heat load indices were applied for HS exposure assessment. Secondly, broken line models were used to estimate HS thresholds, milk losses, and rates of decline of milk production associated with temperature-humidity index (THI) across parities. Thirdly, individual cow responses to HS estimated using random regression model were considered as key measures of dairy farming system sensitivity assessment to HS. Dairy farms are annually exposed for 5 months to high THI values above 72 in Tunisia. The tipping points, at which milk yield started to decline over parities with 3-day average THI, ranged between 65 and 67. The largest milk decline per unit of THI above threshold values was 0.135 ± 0.01 kg for multiparous cows. The milk losses estimated due to HS in the Holstein breed during the summer period (June to August) ranged between 110 and 142 kg/cow in north and south, respectively. A high HS sensitivity was proved especially in dairy farms characterized by large herd size and high milk production level. Hence, providing knowledge of dairy farms vulnerability to HS may provide the basis for developing strategies to reduce HS effects and plan for CC adaptation.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01
       
  • Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Extreme weather events are major causes of loss of life and damage infrastructure worldwide. High temperatures cause heat stress on humans, livestock, crops and infrastructure. Heat stress exposure is projected to increase with ongoing climate change. Extremes of temperature are common in Africa and infrastructure is often incapable of providing adequate cooling. We show how easily accessible cooling technology, such as evaporative coolers, prevent heat stress in historic timescales but are unsuitable as a solution under climate change. As temperatures increase, powered cooling, such as air conditioning, is necessary to prevent overheating. This will, in turn, increase demand on already stretched infrastructure. We use high temporal resolution climate model data to estimate the demand for cooling according to two metrics, firstly the apparent temperature and secondly the discomfort index. For each grid cell we calculate the heat stress value and the amount of cooling required to turn a heat stress event into a non heat stress event. We show the increase in demand for cooling in Africa is non uniform and that equatorial countries are exposed to higher heat stress than higher latitude countries. We further show that evaporative coolers are less effective in tropical regions than in the extra tropics. Finally, we show that neither low nor high efficiency coolers are sufficient to return Africa to current levels of heat stress under climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-06-17
       
  • The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of
           Iran

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Malaria is a vector-borne disease, likely to be affected by climate change. In this study, general circulation model (GCM)-based scenarios were used for projecting future climate patterns and malaria incidence by artificial neural networks (ANN) in Zahedan district, Iran. Daily malaria incidence data of Zahedan district from 2000 to 2019 were inquired. The gamma test was used to select the appropriate combination of parameters for nonlinear modeling. The future climate pattern projections were obtained from HadGEM2-ES. The output was downscaled using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission for 2021–2060 was simulated by ANN. The designed model indicated that the future climate in Zahedan district will be warmer, more humid, and with more precipitation. Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria by ANN showed the number of malaria cases in Zahedan under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5). It should be noted that due to the lack of daily malaria data before 2013, monthly data from 2000 were used only for initial analysis; and in preprocessing and simulation analyses, the daily malaria data from 2013 to 2019 were used. Therefore, if proper interventions are not implemented, malaria will continue to be a health issue in this region.
      PubDate: 2022-06-17
       
  • Honey bee (Apis mellifera) size determines colony heat transfer when brood
           covering or distributed

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Heat transfer is key to the survival of honey bee colonies (Apis mellifera L.) in the wide range of hot (e.g. sub-Saharan) and cool climates (e.g. maritime-temperate) in which they have evolved and adapted. Here, a validated computational fluid dynamics, conjugate heat transfer model was used to determine the heat transfer of honey bee colonies in simulated standard wooden hives, complete with combs and brood, for a broad range of honey bee sizes, from slender lowland African A.m. scutellata, to broader (larger diameter) Northern European A.m. mellifera, across the whole range of brood covering honey bee densities, as well as when evenly distributed throughout the hive. It shows that under cooling stress, brood covering, broad subspecies need less than a third of the number of bees per unit of brood area for thermal insulation compared to slender subspecies. Also, when distributed evenly around the nest, broad subspecies lose less brood heat than when brood covering. These simulations demonstrate that honey bee girth has climate-based evolutionary advantages directly for the colony as well as via the survival of the individual. In addition, it shows that non-clustering behavioural patterns of passive honey bees can make significant, subspecies distinctive changes to nest heat loss and therefore honey production and climate change survival.
      PubDate: 2022-06-16
       
  • Climate sensitivity of seasonal radial growth in young stands of Mexican
           conifers

    • Free pre-print version: Loading...

      Abstract: Abstract Alteration of forest by climate change and human activities modify the growth response of trees to temperature and moisture. Growth trends of young forests with even-aged stands recruited recently when the climate became warmer and drier are not well known. We analyze the radial growth response of young conifer trees (37–63 years old) to climatic parameters and drought stress employing Pearson correlations and the Vaganov-Shashkin Lite (VS-Lite) model. This study uses tree rings of six species of conifer trees (Pinus teocote, Pinus pseudostrobus, Pinus pinceana, Pinus montezumae, Pinus ayacahuite, and Taxodium mucronatum) collected from young forests with diverse growth conditions in northern and central Mexico. Seasonal ring growth and earlywood width (EW) were modeled as a function of temperature and soil moisture using the VS-Lite model. Wet and cool conditions in the previous winter and current spring enhance ring growth and EW production, mainly in sensitive species from dry sites (P. teocote, P. pseudostrobus, P. pinceana, and P. montezumae), whereas the growth of species from mesic sites (P. ayacahuite and T. mucronatum) shows little responsiveness to soil moisture. In P. ayacahuite and T. mucronatum, latewood growth is enhanced by warm summer conditions. The VS-Lite model shows that low soil moisture during April and May constrains growth in the four sensitive species, particularly in P. pinceana, the species dominant in the most xeric sites. Assessing seasonal ring growth and combining its response to climate with process-based growth models could complement xylogenesis data. Such framework should be widely applied, given the predicted warming and its impact on young forests.
      PubDate: 2022-06-08
       
 
JournalTOCs
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
Email: journaltocs@hw.ac.uk
Tel: +00 44 (0)131 4513762
 


Your IP address: 34.239.147.7
 
Home (Search)
API
About JournalTOCs
News (blog, publications)
JournalTOCs on Twitter   JournalTOCs on Facebook

JournalTOCs © 2009-