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- Associations between residential greenness and air pollution and the
incident metabolic syndrome in a Thai worker cohort-
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Abstract: Abstract Increasing air pollution and decreasing exposure to greenness may contribute to the metabolic syndrome (MetS). We examined associations between long-term exposure to residential greenness and air pollution and MetS incidence in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand. Data from 1369 employees (aged 52–71 years) from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand cohort from 2002 to 2017 were analyzed. The greenness level within 500 m of each participant’s residence was measured using the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The kriging approach was used to generate the average concentration of each air pollutant (PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, and O3) at the sub-district level. The average long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness for each participant was calculated over the same period of person-time. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the greenness-air pollution-MetS associations. The adjusted hazard ratio of MetS was 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 1.53), 1.22 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.30), and 2.0 (95% CI: 1.82, 2.20), per interquartile range increase in PM10 (9.5 μg/m3), SO2 (0.9 ppb), and CO (0.3 ppm), respectively. We found no clear association between NDVI or EVI and the incidence of MetS. On the contrary, the incident MetS was positively associated with NDVI and EVI for participants exposed to PM10 at concentrations more than 50 μg/m3. In summary, the incidence of MetS was positively associated with long-term exposure to air pollution. In areas with high levels of air pollution, green spaces may not benefit health outcomes.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Investigating the impacts of shaded outdoor spaces on thermal adaptation
and cognitive performance of university students in classroom environments
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Abstract: Abstract Shading strategies are effective means to reduce urban risk factors such as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. The influence of shaded outdoor spaces on university students’ thermal adaptability and cognitive performance is limited researched. The study aims at evaluating the effect of shaded outdoor spaces upon thermal comfort; and, linking such results upon university students’ cognitive performance in a classroom environment with natural ventilation. A case study was conducted with students the ages of 19–22 at Bilkent University in Ankara, during the mid-season in October. The quantitative microclimatic conditions of the university campus’s unshaded/shaded areas and indoor studios were obtained through Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) index. The qualitative evaluation was undertaken by the adaptive model and thermal comfort survey. D2 test of attention was conducted to measure cognitive performance of students. This study revealed that the shade may increase thermal adaptation with the lowest mean PET of 18.7°C, while the highest mean PET of 33.2°C was obtained in sun-exposed space. Also, experiencing shaded outdoor space contributed to an improvement in concentration performance (CP) of students resulting in the mean CP score of 182.8, while those with sun-exposed outdoor space experience had the mean CP score of 167.6 within studios.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Characteristic of bioclimatic conditions in Poland based on
Physiologically Equivalent Temperature-
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Abstract: Abstract The aim of the study was to characterise bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the times of progressing warming. This type of research permits the verification whether the progressing climate warming also translates into a change in bioclimatic conditions. This study was based on data obtained for the period 1966–2021 from 37 synoptic stations located in Poland. All the data series were uniform and obtained from the data base of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). The study revealed high variability of bioclimatic conditions in Poland both in spatial and in temporal terms. The lowest mean annual PET values were recorded in the north and north-east of the country and the highest in the south-west of Poland. The study revealed changes in the frequency of occurrence of days with cold and heat stress, as well as days with no thermal stress. The most intensive changes were determined for days with cold stress. A decrease in the number of days in this category translated into an increase in the number of days with no thermal stress and days with heat stress.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Summer heat waves and their mortality risk over a 14-year period in a
western region of Iran-
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Abstract: Abstract Compared to previous decade, impact of heat waves (HWs) on mortality in recent years needs to be discussed in Iran. We investigated temporal change in added impact of summer HWs on mortality in eight cities of Iran. The pooled length of HWs was compared between 2015–2022 and 2008–2014 using random and fixed-effects of meta-analysis regression model. The temporal change in impact of HWs was evaluated through interaction effect between crossbasis function of HW and year in a two-stage time varying model. In order to pool the reduced coefficients of each period, multivariate meta-regression model, including city-specific temperature and temperature range as heterogenicity factors, was used. In addition to relative risk (RR), attributable fraction (AF) of HW in the two periods was also estimated in each city. In the last years, the frequency of all HWs was higher and the weak HWs were significantly longer. The only significant RR was related to the lowest and low severe HWs which was observed in the second period. In terms of AF, compared to the strong HWs, all weak HWs caused a considerable excess mortality in all cities and second period. The subgroup analysis revealed that the significant impact in the second period was mainly related to females and elderlies. The increased risk and AF due to more frequent and longer HWs (weak HWs) in the last years highlights the need for mitigation strategies in the region. Because of uncertainty in the results of severe HWs, further elaborately investigation of the HWs is need.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Ambient carbon monoxide and relative risk of daily hospital outpatient
visits for respiratory diseases in Lanzhou, China-
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Abstract: Abstract At present, evidence of the associations between carbon monoxide (CO) and respiratory diseases (RD) in Northwest China is limited and controversial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of ambient CO on outpatient visits for RD in Lanzhou, China. The daily amount of outpatient visits for total and cause-specific RD, air pollutant, and weather variables were collected in Lanzhou, China from 1st January 2013 to 31st December 2019. A generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model were used to assess associations between CO and outpatient visits for RD. During the study period, a total of 1,623,361 RD outpatient visits were recorded. For each interquartile range (IQR) (0.77 mg/m3) increase in CO, the relative risk (RR) was 1.163 (95% CI: 1.138, 1.188) for total RD at lag07, 1.153 (95% CI: 1.128,1.179) for upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) at lag07, 1.379 (95% CI: 1.338,1.422) for pneumonia at lag07, 1.029 (95% CI: 0.997,1.062) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) lag04, 1.068 (95% CI: 1.028,1.110) for asthma lag03, and 1.212 (95% CI: 1.178,1.247) for bronchitis lag07, respectively. In the subgroup analyses, the impacts of CO were more pronounced on total RD, pneumonia, COPD, and bronchitis in males than females, while the opposite was true in URTI and asthma. The impact of CO on RD was the strongest for children under 15 years-of-age. We also found significantly stronger effects during cold seasons compared to warm seasons. In addition, we observed a roughly linear exposure–response curve between CO and RD with no threshold effect. This study in Lanzhou revealed a remarkable association between CO level and an elevated risk of total and cause-specific RD outpatient visits, especially for pneumonia.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Association of transient mitochondrial functional impairment with acute
heat exposure in children from Muzaffarpur region of Bihar, India-
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Abstract: Abstract Over the past several years, the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar (India) has witnessed recurrent outbreaks of acute encephalitis illness of unknown etiology, called acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) among young children, especially during the peak-summer season. Pesticide exposure, viral encephalitis, and litchi toxin intake have all been postulated as potential sources of the ailment. However, no conclusive etiology for AES has been identified in the affected children. During recent rounds of the outbreak, metabolic abnormalities have been documented in these children, and a direct correlation was observed between higher environmental temperature during the peak-summer month and AES caseload. The clinical and metabolic profiles of these children suggested the possible involvement of mitochondrial dysfunction during heat stress as one of the several contributory factors leading to multisystem metabolic derangement. The present study observed that mitochondrial function parameters such as cell death, mitochondrial membrane potential, oxidative stress, and mitochondrial pathway-related gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) isolated from children were affected in peak-summer when compared to post-summer months. Similar observations of mitochondrial function parameters along with impaired bioenergetic parameters were demonstrated in the heat-exposed model of PBMCs isolated from healthy adult individuals. In conclusion, the results suggested that there is an association of transient mitochondrial dysfunction when exposed to sustained heat during the summer months. One may consider mitochondrial dysfunction as one of the important factors leading to an outbreak of AES among the children from affected regions though this needs to be substantiated with further studies.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Analysis of heatwaves based on the universal thermal climate index and
apparent temperature over mainland Southeast Asia-
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Abstract: Abstract Heatwaves have caused significant damage to human health, infrastructure, and economies in recent decades, and the occurrences of heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe across the globe under climate change. The previous studies on heatwaves have primarily focused on air temperature, neglecting other variables like wind speed, relative humidity, and radiation, which could lead to a serious underestimation of the adverse effects of heatwaves. To address this issue, this study proposed to the use of more sophisticated thermal indices, such as universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and apparent temperature (AT), to define heatwaves and carry out a comprehensive heatwave assessment over mainland southeast Asia (MSEA) from 1961 to 2020. The traditional temperature-based method was also compared. The results of the study demonstrate that the annual maximum temperature in heatwave days (HWA) and the annual average temperature in heatwave days (HWM) are significantly underestimated if only air temperature is considered. However, UTCI and AT tend to predict a lower frequency of yearly heatwave occurrences and shorter durations. Trend analysis indicates a general increase in heatwave occurrences across MSEA under all thermal indices in the past six decades, particularly in the last 30 years. This study’s approach and findings provide a holistic view of heatwave characteristics based on thermal indices and highlight the risk of intensified heat stress during heatwaves in MSEA.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Validating an advanced smartphone application for thermal advising in cold
environments-
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Abstract: Abstract The ClimApp smartphone application was developed to merge meteorological forecast data with personal information for individualized and improved thermal warning during heat and cold stress and for indoor comfort in buildings. For cold environments, ClimApp predicts the personal thermal stress and strain by the use of the Insulation REQuired model that combines weather and personal physiological data with additional consideration of the Wind Chill index based on the local weather forecast. In this study, we validated the individualized ClimApp index relative to measurements and compared it with the Universal Temperature Climate Index (UTCI). To this aim, 55 participants (27 females) were exposed to at least 1 h in an outdoor environment of 10 °C or below (average 1.4 °C air temperature, 74.9% relative humidity, and 4.7 m/s air velocity) inputting their activity level and clothing insulation as instructed by ClimApp. The UTCI and ClimApp indices were calculated and compared to the participants’ perceived thermal sensation. The ClimApp index root mean square deviation (RMSD) was below the standard deviation of the perceived thermal sensation which indicates a valid prediction and the UTCI RMSD was higher than the standard deviation which indicates an invalid prediction. The correlation of ClimApp and UTCI to the perceived thermal sensation was statistically significant for both models.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Centralized health management based on hot spring resort improves physical
examination indicators and sleep quality in people at high risk of chronic
diseases: a randomized controlled trial-
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Abstract: We study the effects of centralized health management based on hot spring resorts on the physical examination index and sleep quality of people at high risk of chronic diseases. We recruited 114 volunteers at high risk of chronic diseases. We then divided them into 57 in the intervention group and 57 in the control group. The intervention group collectively received 4 weeks (28 days) of comprehensive health management interventions at Tongjing Hotspring Resort, including regular schedules, balanced diet, appropriate exercise, targeted health education, etc. The main outcomes are physical examination indicators (height, weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose) and sleep quality. Both groups underwent a questionnaire and physical examination at baseline, 2 weeks and 4 weeks. Intragroup comparisons grouped by exposure criteria showed decreases in BMI, waist circumference, triglycerides, total cholesterol, and blood glucose in the intervention group at both 2 and 4 weeks (all P < 0.05); however, in the control group, only triglycerides decreased at 4 weeks (P < 0.05). Intergroup comparisons showed BMI and waist circumference were significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group at 4 weeks (all P < 0.05). Intragroup comparisons of insomnia severity index (ISI) scores showed a significant decrease in the intervention group at both 2 and 4 weeks (all P < 0.001) with no significant change in the control group (P > 0.05). Intergroup comparisons showed that the insomnia severity index (ISI) scores were significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group at baseline (P = 0.006) but became significantly lower than the control group at 2 and 4 weeks (all P < 0.001). Thus, this pattern significantly improved BMI, waist circumference, triglycerides, and sleep in the intervention group. Trial registration number Chinese Clinical Trials Registry: ChiCTR2100053201, registered 14 Nov 2021. (Retroactive Registration)
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Adaptive dynamics of indigenous sheep in Canary Islands, Spain: A machine
learning approach-
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Abstract: Abstract The objective of the study was to characterize the adaptive profile of Ibero-American sheep of the Canaria breed, evaluating the possible changes in thermoregulatory responses and coat characteristics to which the animals are exposed in the different seasons of the year. Data collected over a period of 12 months were analyzed, with information being observed in the interval of 15 days of each month, in 23 adult ewes kept in an intensive breeding system. The rectal temperature (RT) of Canaria ewes was higher (P < 0.001) in the summer and spring seasons. In contrast, the respiratory rate (RR) of the animals was higher in autumn. The surface temperature (ST) of the herd was lower during the spring. It was observed that the hair length (HL) and the hair density (NH) did not vary during the seasons. However, the hair diameter (HD) and the coat thickness (CT) varied, being in the spring, the season in which the animals had the highest HD and autumn, the season in which they had the lowest. The performance was similar throughout the seasons (P > 0.05). The morphological variables of the coat presented 63.8% of original cases grouped, which may characterize the morphological responses of the coat of these animals as an important trait of the adaptive profile of the breed, whereas the opposite occurred for thermoregulatory responses. The variables most used by the herd and that were most important were autumn (CT, NH, HD, HR, RT, and HL), summer (ST and RR), spring (RR, ST, and RT), and winter (RT, HD, HR, and RR). Sheep of the Canaria breed have an adaptive profile that dynamically uses thermoregulatory and morphological responses, molding themselves according to climate changes resulting from seasonal periods on the Island of Tenerife, Spain. The Canaria sheep stood out for the modification of the morphological characteristics of the coat, especially during autumn and spring, and can be considered an excellent genetic resource with excellent adaptive characteristics for arid environments such as those found in the Canary Islands.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the
subtropics-
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Abstract: Abstract Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 years were more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- The effects of warm weather on children’s outdoor heat stress and
physical activity in a preschool yard in Gothenburg, Sweden-
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Abstract: Abstract Hot weather conditions can have negative impacts on the thermal comfort and physical activity of vulnerable groups such as children. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of warm weather on 5-year-old children’s thermal comfort and physical activity in a preschool yard in Gothenburg, Sweden. In situ measurements were conducted for 1–1.5 h in the early afternoon on 8 days in May, June, and August of 2022. The thermal comfort and physical activity was estimated with GPS-tracks, heart rate monitors, and step counts and compared to observed weather conditions. Results show that physical activity decreases under warmer weather conditions, depicted by a decrease in distance moved, step counts, and highest registered pulse. Moreover, on warm days, the children avoid sunlit areas. For 50% or more of the time spent in sunlit areas, the children are exposed to cautious levels of heat. In shaded areas, on the other hand, the children are less exposed, with five out of 8 days having 50% or more of the time at neutral levels. The study demonstrates the importance of access to shaded areas in preschool yards where children can continue their active play while simultaneously maintaining a safe thermal status.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- A 43-year of human thermal comfort in Central Africa
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Abstract: Abstract In this study, the human thermal stress was quantified across Central Africa (C.A.) using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Although many of the documented studies on the use of UTCI in relation to human health are currently restricted to countries in the northern hemisphere, this contribution constitutes a prerequisite of information for future research in the region. To mitigate the problem of lack of field data in the Central African sub-region, we downloaded UTCI data via the ERA5 reanalysis portal. Based on this data source, we have explored the spatiotemporal characteristics and the resulting behaviour at annual, seasonal and monthly scales in Central Africa over the period 1982 to 2022. On these different scales, 4 of the 10 UTCI thermal stress categories were experienced, ranging from mild cold stress to strong heat stress. Spatially, cases of moderate heat stress were the most widespread, with cases of strong intensity occurring in a few isolated areas in the centre, east and west. Slight cold stress is confined to the south-east domain, particularly in autumn and winter. From 1982 to 2022, heat stress has increased significantly in the region, with peaks observed in January and October; very few areas have been spared the phenomenon of thermal stress. However, a slight decreasing trend was noticed along coastal regions and the south of C.A. Thereafter, the trend values showed the degree of C.A. vulnerability to global warming, and thus appropriate measures should be taken in relation to outdoor occupations and its impacts on the population of this region.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Biometeorological conditions during cold spells in south-east Poland and
west Ukraine-
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Abstract: Abstract The aim of this research is to analyze the biometeorological conditions, based on the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) thermal index, during cold spells (CSs) in south-east Poland and west Ukraine during the years 1966–2021. The research shows a high variability of the occurrence of CSs in the study period and a clear increase in the frequency and total duration of CSs in the east of the study area. The number of CSs in the analyzed years varies from 6 cases in the west (in Katowice) to 34 in the east of the study area (in Shepetivka). The total duration of CSs varied from 26 days (in Raciborz and Katowice) to 166 days (in Rivne). At the majority of stations, CSs occurred most frequently in the first two decades (1966/1967–1975/1976, 1976/1977–1985/986) and in the last full decade (2006/2007–2015/2016). The average PET values at 12:00 UTC during CSs decreased eastwards throughout the study domain and were generally lower than −20.0 °C in the west of Ukraine, while in south-east Poland varied between −18.1 and −20.0 °C. At 40% of stations across the study domain, the lowest average PET values were recorded during a cold spell in January 1987, with PET values varying from −28.0 °C in Chernivtsi to −12.7 °C in Yaremche. The longest or one of the longest spells in most stations (in 77% of stations across the study domain) was the cold spell of 2012 and characterized by mean PET values ranging from −25.4 °C in Rivne to −19.5 °C in Zakopane.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Sensor-based behavioral patterns can identify heat-sensitive lactating
dairy cows-
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Abstract: Abstract Heat stress impairs the health and performance of dairy cows, yet only a few studies have investigated the diversity of cattle behavioral responses to heat waves. This research was conducted on an Italian Holstein dairy farm equipped with precision livestock farming sensors to assess potential different behavioral patterns of the animals. Three heat waves, defined as at least five consecutive days with mean daily temperature-humidity index higher than 72, were recorded in the farm area during the summer of 2021. Individual daily milk yield data of 102 cows were used to identify “heat-sensitive” animals, meaning the cows that, under a given heat wave, experienced a milk yield drop that was not linked with other health events (e.g., mastitis). Milk yield drops were detected as perturbations of the lactation curve estimated by iteratively using Wood’s equation. Individual daily minutes of lying, chewing, and activity were retrieved from ear-tag-based accelerometer sensors. Semi-parametric generalized estimating equations models were used to assess behavioral deviations of heat-sensitive cows from the herd means under heat stress conditions. Heat waves were associated with an overall increase in the herd’s chewing and activity times, along with an overall decrease of lying time. Heat-sensitive cows spent approximately 15 min/days more chewing and performing activities (p < 0.05). The findings of this research suggest that the information provided by high-frequency sensor data could assist farmers in identifying cows for which personalized interventions to alleviate heat stress are needed.
PubDate: 2023-12-01
- Are there differences in the adaptive profile of hair sheep and their
crosses with wool breeds'-
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Abstract: Abstract This study aimed to evaluate and compare the physiological performance of different genetic groups of sheep, by physiological variables and serum hormone levels, in a hot weather environment. Thirty sheep from five genetic groups were used: Santa Inês (SI), ½ Dorper + ½ Santa Inês (DO), ½ Ilê de France + ½ Santa Inês (IF), ½ Suffolk + ½ Santa Inês (SK), and ½ Texel + ½ Santa Inês (TX). The readings and records of physiological parameters (respiratory rate (RR), rectal temperature (RT), auricular cavity temperature (ACT), and surface temperature (ST)) were carried out at 7:00 am, 1:00 pm, and 7:00 pm, in 12 non-consecutive days. The collections of blood samples for hormone analysis (triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), and cortisol (CORT)) is in four consecutive days. The environmental conditions of the experimental period caused a thermal discomfort in the sheep, but not a state of thermal stress. The thermolysis mechanisms, sensitive (ST and ACT) and latent (RR) processes, were enough to maintain their homeostasis (RT). The results showed that crossbred breeds presented a higher metabolism and were more efficient at dissipating heat through thermolysis than the SI breed. The crossbred breeds were efficient at dissipating heat through the elevation of body surface temperature and respiratory rate, mainly SK and TX, i.e., crossbred breeds, despite the wool cover, used thermoregulatory mechanisms that promoted lower variation of RT. The analysis of variance showed significant effects (P < 0.05) to the time factor in the responses of T4 and T3, and to the breed factor in the responses of CORT, T4, and T3. We did not observe interaction between the factors to any of the hormonal variables. Therefore, we can state that the effect of time was independent of breed and vice versa. Thyroid hormones presented lower blood concentration in the mornings (4.03 ± 0.82, T4; 65.08 ± 10.6, T3), increasing their concentration in the afternoon (4.60 ± 1.03, T4; 70.16 ± 14.17, T3). The thyroid hormones presented a normal circadian rhythm, with the exception of SK. Air temperature (AT) showed greater correlation with physiological variables than enthalpy (H) did, in the experimental conditions. However, H showed correlation with T4 and T3. The adaptive profile of the genetic groups under study are different, but the IF genetic group showed better performance under environmental conditions.
PubDate: 2023-11-28
- The rise and fall of excess winter mortality in New Zealand from 1876 to
2020-
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Abstract: Abstract Excess winter mortality (EWM) has been used as a measure of how well populations and policy moderate the health effects of cold weather. We aimed to investigate long-term changes in the EWM of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), and potential drivers of change, and to test for structural breaks in trends. We calculated NZ EWM indices from 1876 (4,698 deaths) to 2020 (33,310 deaths), total and by age-group and sex, comparing deaths from June to September (the coldest months) to deaths from February to May and October to January. The mean age and sex-standardised EWM Index (EWMI) for the full study period, excluding 1918, was 1.22. However, mean EWMI increased from 1.20 for 1886 to 1917, to 1.34 for the 1920s, then reduced over time to 1.14 in the 2010s, with excess winter deaths averaging 4.5% of annual deaths (1,450 deaths per year) in the 2010s, compared to 7.9% in the 1920s. Children under 5 years transitioned from a summer to winter excess between 1886 and 1911. Otherwise, the EWMI age-distribution was J-shaped in all time periods. Structural break testing showed the 1918 influenza pandemic strain had a significant impact on trends in winter and non-winter mortality and winter excess for subsequent decades. It was not possible to attribute the post-1918 reduction in EWM to any single factor among improved living standards, reduced severe respiratory infections, or climate change.
PubDate: 2023-11-27
- Temperature impacts on cotton yield superposed by effects on plant growth
and verticillium wilt infection in China-
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Abstract: Abstract China produces and consumes the largest amount of cotton, playing a critical role in the world’s fiber and textile industries. Theoretically, an increase in temperature poses a complex set of impacts on both cotton and pathogen diseases. However, empirical evidence regarding the overall effect on regional cotton yield in China is currently lacking. In this study, we employ county-level cotton statistics and degree-day indices (n = 30,502) to demonstrate a temperature effect on cotton yield, influenced by both direct temperature effects and indirect effects on verticillium wilt infection in China. Our findings indicate that temperatures between the base growing temperature (15 °C) and the optimal infection threshold for cotton wilt disease (25 °C) reduce cotton yield. However, beyond this threshold, when disease infection is significantly limited, higher temperatures become beneficial. Temperatures exceeding 32 °C causes heat stress, which dominates and drives a decline in yield. Furthermore, we provide a risk assessment of warming on cotton in future climate scenarios. Our model projections reveal an overall decrease in cotton yield ranging from 6.2 to 30.6%, accompanied by amplified heat stress (resulting in a yield decrease of 11.6 to 48.7%) but a reduced threat of verticillium wilt (yield increase of 8.2 to 23.6%) in future. Particularly, the Northwest Region, currently responsible for 80% of cotton production, is expected to be particularly vulnerable. This study emphasizes the importance of investing in long-term technological advancements such as cotton heat-tolerance breeding and redistributing cotton growing areas.
PubDate: 2023-11-27
- Calibration and validation of solar radiation-based equations to estimate
crop evapotranspiration in a semi-arid climate-
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Abstract: Abstract The Abtew and Jensen-Haise solar radiation-based equations were used to estimate evapotranspiration, considering the limited climatic data in many locations. Both equations were proven to successfully predict the potential evapotranspiration (ETO) compared with the standard Penman–Monteith (PM) method in two Mediterranean countries. Calibration of the constant coefficient k of the Abtew equation showed substantial differences compared to recommended values (1.22 vs. 0.53), with the highest values observed during September (1.46). Validation of ETO measurements using calibrated Abtew equation against the PM method indicated a high correlation coefficient (r2 = 0.97, RMSE = 0.61). Further, evapotranspiration requirements, using the calibrated empirical equation, were calculated for olives (449 mm) and citrus (807 mm) showing a good agreement with recommended values for dry climate regions. Therefore, the tested equations could be safely used to predict frequencies and doses of irrigation in semi-arid climates, considering limited climatic data availability.
PubDate: 2023-11-27
- Perceptions of weather-based pain forecasts and their effect on daily
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Abstract: Abstract As studies begin to have more success uncovering the relationships between atmospheric conditions and pain, weather-based pain forecasting becomes more of a reality. In this study, a survey was used to determine if people living with migraines and/or other pain-related conditions are receptive to weather-based pain forecasts. Moreover, we wished to identify whether these forecasts actually impact the decision-making of those who use them. Survey respondents were generally eager to use these novel forecasts. Furthermore, when provided with different scenarios involving weather-based pain forecasts, the respondents’ actions were altered. When a hypothetical forecast indicated that the weather was conducive to migraines or other types of pain, many indicated that they would likely take preventative measures (e.g., medication). Additionally, respondents were less likely to continue with a planned activity, regardless of length, as forecast severity increased. The results from this survey highlight the importance of developing and improving weather-based pain forecasting.
PubDate: 2023-11-21
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