 Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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- Pathways versus incentives: climate activism to climate aligned portfolio
management
First page: kgae013
Abstract: AbstractClimate activists have pressured financial institutions to accelerate global decarbonization by aligning portfolios with Paris Agreement transition pathways and targets. We trace the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios to corporate target setting via the Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) and financial institutions’ portfolio alignment methods. We identify three critical weaknesses that will limit efficacy: the absence of rigorous GHG emissions accounting, reliance on centrally planned pathways, and tension with fiduciary duties. These issues undermine the theory of change behind activist and financial sector efforts. As an alternative, we propose Emissions Liability Management (ELM) which treats emissions as liabilities matched by removal assets, directing firms to maintain emissions solvency. Rather than chasing pathways, ELM provides incentives for emissions reductions and removals consistent with shareholder obligations derived from market prices. By reframing climate action in financial terms, ELM can engage financial markets as agents of change in a manner grounded in sound economics.
PubDate: Mon, 29 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae013
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- What’s Scope 2 good for'
First page: kgae011
Abstract: AbstractThe Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s Scope 2 has long been pivotal in addressing electricity's role in emissions, yet its effectiveness in emissions accounting is limited. This paper critiques Scope 2 for its inadequate allocation of electricity-derived emissions and for supporting misleading emissions reduction claims through market-based transactions. The paper investigates alternatives like 24/7 Carbon Free Electricity and Emissions First, noting their improvements over Scope 2, but also their failure to fully address grid embodied emissions. The concept of carbon solvency is introduced as a superior model, compelling firms to align long-term emissions liabilities with carbon removal assets, thus enabling more accurate emissions accounting and investment decisions for grid decarbonization. This approach fosters clearer decision-making, particularly in electricity generation methods with variable upstream emissions, such as hydrogen and biofuels. By redefining net zero within a rigorous, auditable framework, we propose a shift from current practices towards a more accountable and environmentally impactful model.
PubDate: Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae011
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Additionality, baselines, and the proper accounting for land-based climate
change mitigation efforts
First page: kgae012
Abstract: AbstractCarbon storage and uptake on land is a critical part of climate change mitigation. Each year, up to 30% of anthropogenic emissions are neutralized by the ongoing background land sink. At the same time, greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation are major contributors to climate change. Protecting the background sink, avoiding additional emissions, and increasing removals are all key parts of a climate change mitigation portfolio. However, accurately measuring the true mitigation effects of a given intervention is challenging because of an inherent reliance on a counterfactual—an estimate of what would have happened in the absence of a given intervention. These counterfactuals are handled differently in carbon markets and in national greenhouse gas inventories, which can lead to confusion in accounting for progress on climate change mitigation. In this paper, we review how global carbon budgets, national greenhouse gas inventories, and carbon markets account for land-based carbon fluxes. We also examine the implications for additionality and identify some particularly challenging cases. Finally, we present recommendations moving forward and connect this work to broader challenges relevant to other carbon dioxide removal pathways.
PubDate: Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae012
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Research criteria towards an interdisciplinary Stratospheric Aerosol
Intervention assessment
First page: kgae010
Abstract: AbstractWith surface temperatures already reaching unprecedented highs, resulting in significant adverse consequences for societies and ecosystems, there are increasing calls to expand research into climate interventions, including Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI). However, research and dissemination are currently fragmented and would benefit from a comprehensive international assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding impacts, risks, and recommendations for future SAI research directions. The goals of a scientific assessment would be to describe the current state of SAI research and evaluate proposed scenario-strategy combinations through well-designed evaluation guidelines. The suggested iterative approach would integrate natural and social science considerations to guide future research toward more plausible scenarios and strategy development to reduce uncertainties and minimize the risks of SAI. Here, we outline multidisciplinary research criteria to guide the assessment process and provide an overview of the benefits and risks of proposed SAI applications. We group these criteria into three categories: (1) technical and design requirements, (2) response and impacts, and (3) societal considerations. Including all three categories in a comprehensive assessment of potential SAI applications outlined here promotes enhanced interdisciplinary and international collaborations, intentionally engaging the underrepresented Global South. The assessment structure further promotes the need for recurring reports every few years with globally representative participation and could also be applicable to other Solar Radiation Modification methods or combined approaches. Such assessments are necessary to align research with considerations for decision-makers and the public on the feasibility of SAI in reducing the impacts of climate change and its potential societal and ecological trade-offs.
PubDate: Sat, 29 Jun 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae010
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Identifying when thresholds from the Paris Agreement are breached: the
minmax average, a novel smoothing approach
First page: kgae009
Abstract: AbstractIdentifying when a given threshold has been breached in the global temperature record has become of crucial importance since the Paris Agreement. However there is no formally agreed methodology for this. In this work we show why local smoothing methodologies like the moving average and other climate modeling based approaches are fundamentally ill-suited for this specific purpose, and propose a better one, that we call the minmax average. It has strong links with the isotonic regression, is conceptually simple and is arguably closer to the intuitive meaning of “breaching the threshold” in the climate discourse, all favorable features for acceptability. When applied to the global mean surface temperature anomaly (GMSTA) record from Berkeley Earth, we obtain the following conclusions. First, the rate of increase has been ∼+0.25°C per decade since 1995. Second, based on this new estimate alone, we should plausibly expect the GMSTA to reach 1.49°C in 2023 and not go below that on average in the medium-term future. When taking into account the record temperatures of the second half of 2023, not having breached the 1.5°C threshold already in July 2023 is only possible with record long and/or deep La Niña in the following years.
PubDate: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae009
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Uncertainties and confidence in stratospheric aerosol injection modelling:
a systematic literature review
First page: kgae007
Abstract: Abstract Model projections performed to evaluate the efficacy and impacts of solar geoengineering interventions, such as Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), include multiple sources of uncertainty, namely scenario, model, and natural variability uncertainty. It is well accepted that a quantitative uncertainty assessment related to SAI modelling is required to provide robust and policy-relevant information on SAI. This study investigates how and to what extent articles using a climate modelling approach on SAI quantify and communicate uncertainty sources. We conducted a systematic literature review of a sample of 60 peer-reviewed articles in order to (i) analyse whether uncertainties were addressed, and if yes, which methods were used to characterize uncertainties, and (ii) study how the articles communicated assumptions and limits that contribute to the estimation of confidence in the used models and the resulting projections. We present statistics on the uncertainty quantification methods used in the articles and we discuss the vocabulary employed for conveying these uncertainties and model confidence. In the studied article sample, the attention paid to uncertainty estimations in the SAI literature increased with time, and overall, uncertainties were treated using a variety of methods. Model confidence was not always explicitly communicated as the models used are already tested in the literature and their strengths and weaknesses are known to the community although this is often implicit. Our results show that it is currently difficult to perform global, quantitative assessments of uncertainty related to SAI research, in line with recent review reports on solar geoengineering.
PubDate: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae007
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Divergences between mainstream and social media discourses after COP26,
and why they matter
First page: kgae006
Abstract: AbstractUN climate conferences (COPs) have become powerful opportunities for driving public attention to climate issues and raising awareness via mainstream and social media coverage. While there is an abundance of studies examining various elements of the media arenas separately, there are currently no comparative analyses of how mainstream media outlets and social media opinion leaders react to and thereby shape discourses around COPs. Using Bourdieu’s field theory to conceptualize agents in the two arenas as ‘adversaries’, we use manual content analysis to compare reactions to the 2021 Glasgow climate conference (COP26) across the five top English-language online newspapers in Australia, India, the UK and the USA with those of prominent users and organizations on Facebook and Instagram. We find entirely different appraisals of the conference between the two arenas: Where the mainstream media outlets highlighted the progress of the summit, social media leaders were eager to criticize its failures and those of world leaders to take sufficient action. We discuss the implications of this divergence, specifically (i) the extent to which it hinders the cultivation of cohesive narratives about critical climate issues, and (ii) how the failure frame advocated by social media opinion leaders may de-legitimize international policy initiatives and undercut public support for and engagement with these efforts.
PubDate: Tue, 04 Jun 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae006
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- 2023 Record marine heat waves: coral reef bleaching HotSpot maps reveal
global sea surface temperature extremes, coral mortality, and ocean
circulation changes
First page: kgae005
Abstract: AbstractCoral reefs, the most sensitive ecosystem to high temperature, are on the precipice of mass extinction from global warming [1, 2]. 2023 was the hottest year in recorded history on land and in the sea, with dramatic and unexpected temperature increases [3, 4]. Coral Reef Bleaching HotSpot maps provide unique insight into global ocean circulation changes in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing that caused dramatic global temperature rises [1, 2]. The highest excess daily air temperatures recorded in 175 countries, as well as the most prolonged excessive sea surface temperatures, were centered around Jamaica. 2023 marked the worst coral reef bleaching yet in the Northern Hemisphere, with the Southern Hemisphere poised to follow in early 2024. The HotSpot maps strongly suggest accelerated ocean poleward heat transport, slowdown in upwelling, and decreased deep water formation linked to sharply increased 2023 anomalous sea surface and air temperatures. The 2023 distribution of severe heat and bleaching follows both spatial patterns and temporal trends first shown from a baseline 1982–2001 global SST trend analysis [5]. Increased warming of both hot and cold ocean currents shows that horizontal mixing of tropical heat to the poles is accelerating, and that vertical mixing with cold deep water is slowing down, leading to increased ocean stratification, which will cause sea temperature to increase more rapidly and CO2 mixing with the deep ocean to decrease.
PubDate: Thu, 09 May 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae005
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of
action
First page: kgae004
Abstract: AbstractWe propose to explore the sustainability of climate policies based on a novel commitment metric. This metric allows to quantify how future generations’ scope of action is affected by short-term climate policy. In an example application, we show that following a moderate emission scenario like SSP2-4.5 will commit future generations to heavily rely on carbon dioxide removal or/and solar radiation modification to avoid unmanageable sea level rise.
PubDate: Mon, 12 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Embodied emissions policies—design options and political
mobilization potential
First page: kgae003
Abstract: Abstract The topic of greenhouse gas emissions embodied in products is gaining in prominence and the possibilities for measuring and verifying them are improving. This provides fertile ground for those who demand that climate policy should address such embodied emissions. There are different design options for policies targeting embodied emissions. Such differences affect which groups can be mobilized in their favour. This paper shows that procurement standards which target intermediate products can mobilize the support of relatively low carbon producers of high carbon materials, while product standards which target final products can mobilize the support of producers of relatively low carbon materials and knowledge-intensive service providers.
PubDate: Fri, 09 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae003
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- Nexus dynamics: the impact of environmental vulnerabilities and climate
change on refugee camps
First page: kgae001
Abstract: AbstractClimate change and forced migration are often thought about in terms of the sheer numbers of people who might be displaced by a transforming environment. But the potential for ‘environmental refugees’—whether from long-term degradation or short-term catastrophe—extends far beyond those directly affected. Understanding the forces that produce, respond to and amplify such forced migration patterns requires a complex and nuanced view of them. In this article, I explore the question of environmental displacement through the lens of nexus dynamics and look at how environmental refugees complicate our understandings of place, belonging, stability and resilience. I do so through a focus on the largest global refugee camps in the world and the particular environmental vulnerabilities that each faces. Using Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh (Rohingya refugees), Dadaab in Kenya (Somali refugees) and Za’atari in Jordan (Syrian refugees), I examine the ways that political, economic and ecological factors have driven the inhabitants to the camps, keep them vulnerable within them, and raise questions about both their and the camps’ respective futures. By cataloguing some of the environmental risks within the region of each camp and examining each camp’s response in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, I consider the broader logic, viability and purpose of each of these camps, as representative of parallel spaces globally. What does resilience and vulnerability mean in a refugee camp' How does a nexus dynamics approach to climate change and migration help us to understand a complex system such as this'
PubDate: Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae001
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
- A tentative anatomy of Christian responses to anthropogenic climate change
First page: kgae002
Abstract: AbstractThis pilot study addresses the differences in responses to anthropogenic climate change expressed in published normative statements for a cross section of Christian denominations and groupings from the UK and USA as well as international groupings. Grid-group cultural theory is tentatively employed to better understand these differences. Because the cosmologies identified by grid-group theory have as their basis the metaphor of the body, this is in effect a tentative anatomy of Christian responses to anthropogenic climate change. As a test case, this paper explores whether or not it is fruitful to attempt to challenge a given cosmological outlook to better communicate climate change and how this might be achieved or whether to speak to that cosmological perspective and how this might be achieved. In addition, this paper explores how each distinctive cosmology might contribute helpfully in responding to anthropogenic climate change. Finally, avenues of further work to expand this approach are explored.
PubDate: Mon, 15 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae002
Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 1 (2024)
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