 Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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- Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and
vulnerability assessments
Authors: Linda Petutschnig, Erich Rome, Daniel Lückerath, Katharina Milde, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Carlo Aall, Mark Meyer, Gabriel Jordá, Julie Gobert, Mathilda Englund, Karin André, Muriel Bour, Emmanuel M. N. A. N. Attoh, Brigt Dale, Kathrin Renner, Adeline Cauchy, Saskia Reuschel, Florence Rudolf, Miguel Agulles, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Marc Zebisch, Stefan Kienberger
Abstract: As the climate crisis continues to worsen, there is an increasing demand for scientific evidence from Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVA). We present 12 methodological advancements to the Impact Chain-based CRVA (IC-based CRVA) framework, which combines participatory and data-driven approaches to identify and measure climate risks in complex socio-ecological systems. The advancements improve the framework along five axes, including the existing workflow, stakeholder engagement, uncertainty management, socio-economic scenario modeling, and transboundary climate risk examination. Eleven case studies were conducted and evaluated to produce these advancements. Our paper addresses two key research questions: (a) How can the IC-based CRVA framework be methodologically advanced to produce more accurate and insightful results' and (b) How effectively can the framework be applied in research and policy domains that it was not initially designed for' We propose methodological advancements to capture dynamics between risk factors, to resolve contradictory worldviews, and to maintain consistency between Impact Chains across policy scales. We suggest using scenario-planning techniques and integrating uncertainties via Probability Density Functions and Reverse Geometric Aggregation. Our research examines the applicability of IC-based CRVAs to address transboundary climate risks and integrating macro-economic models to reflect possible future socio-economic exposure. Our findings demonstrate that the modular structure of IC-based CRVA allows for the integration of various methodological advancements, and further advancements are possible to better assess complex climate risks and improve adaptation decision-making.
PubDate: 2023-05-31T00:00:00Z
- Exploring the relationship between droughts and rural-to-urban
mobility—a mixed methods approach for Pune, India
Authors: Raphael Karutz, Sigrun Kabisch
Abstract: Urbanization in the global South is intricately linked with the internal mobility of people and the impacts of climate change. In India, changing precipitation patterns pose pressure on rural livelihoods through the increasing frequency and severity of droughts, contributing to rural-to-urban mobility. At destination, however, insufficient information is available on the complex mobility backgrounds of the new arrivals. We employ a mixed methods approach to investigate mobility patterns to Pune, India, with a special focus on the role of droughts. Combining a household survey with in-depth interviews and monthly precipitation data on district level, we use descriptive statistics and qualitative content analysis to show a significant relationship between drought at origin and mobility to Pune. Particularly affected are recent arrivals, migrants of rural origin and from other states, and those currently living in informal areas. The link between droughts and mobility decisions is usually indirect, hidden behind economic conditions such as the loss of agricultural jobs. Paradoxically, migrants affected by droughts at origin face increased flood risk at destination. This risk, however, is often consciously taken in favor of better livelihood opportunities in the city. With climate scenarios projecting increasingly variable precipitation patterns, understanding the climate-mobility-urbanization nexus gains importance, especially for destination hotspots like the city of Pune.
PubDate: 2023-05-25T00:00:00Z
- Editorial: Insights in climate and economics: 2021
Authors: Gal Hochman
PubDate: 2023-05-23T00:00:00Z
- Perspectives on climate information use in the Caribbean
Authors: Denyse S. Dookie, Declan Conway, Suraje Dessai
Abstract: Within research on climate information for decision-making, localized insights on the influences of climate information use remain limited in small and low-income countries. This paper offers an empirical contribution on Caribbean perspectives of climate information use considering current barriers and enablers in the region. We employ thematic analysis of 26 semi-structured interviews with region-focused sectoral experts (including end-users and decision-makers) drawn from climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and resilience focused initiatives and institutions. The results reaffirm presence of known barriers, such as the crucial role of finance, but notably we identify a range of interlinked enabling and catalyzing conditions necessary for the effective use of climate information. These conditions include the need for island- and sector- contextualized climate information, the role of international donors, the importance of adequate human resource capacity and presence of loud voices/climate champions, as well as the need for effective political and legislative mandates and for greater co-production. We construct a visualization of respondents' understanding of influencing factor interrelationships. This shows how their heuristics of climate information use for decision-making intricately link with roles for proactive climate champions, and that available finance often reflects donor interests. We end by discussing how these insights can contribute to strategies for more effective climate information use to promote resilience within the region.
PubDate: 2023-05-22T00:00:00Z
- Distortion of sectoral roles in climate change threatens climate goals
Authors: Naomi Cohen-Shields, Tianyi Sun, Steven P. Hamburg, Ilissa B. Ocko
Abstract: The longstanding method for reporting greenhouse gas emissions—carbon dioxide equivalence (CO2e)—systematically underestimates methane-dominated economic sectors' contributions to warming in the coming decades. This is because it only calculates the warming impact of a pulse of emissions over a 100-year period. For short-lived climate forcers that mostly influence the climate for a decade or two, like methane, this method masks their near-term potency. Assessing the impacts of future greenhouse gas emissions using a simple climate model reveals that midcentury warming contributions of sectors dominated by methane—agriculture, fossil fuel production and distribution, and waste—are two times higher than estimated using CO2e. The CO2e method underemphasizes the importance of reducing emissions from these sectors, and risks misaligning emissions targets with desired temperature outcomes. It is essential to supplement CO2e-derived insights with approaches that convey climate impacts of ongoing emissions over multiple timescales, and to never rely exclusively on CO2e.
PubDate: 2023-05-19T00:00:00Z
- Constructing a social vulnerability index for flooding: insights from a
municipality in Sweden
Authors: Mathilda Englund, Marlon Vieira Passos, Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Lisa Segnestam, Karina Barquet
Abstract: Floods disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups. Social vulnerability assessments are the first step in designing just and equitable flood risk reduction strategies. In Sweden, earlier social vulnerability indices apply top-down approaches. In this paper, we develop and apply a combined bottom-up and top-down approach to assess social vulnerability to flooding at a sub-municipal level in Sweden. We tested an indicator-based climate risk and vulnerability framework, more specifically the impact chain method suggested by the Vulnerability Sourcebook. We involved stakeholders using various participatory methods in three workshops, interviews, and informal exchanges to identify variables and indicators for social vulnerability. The Indicators were aggregated into a composite social vulnerability index using exploratory factor analysis. We thereafter mapped the social vulnerability index scores to uncover spatial injustices. We found that the proposed social vulnerability index captures municipal nuances better than national-level approaches. Our findings indicate an uneven spatial distribution of social vulnerability that mimics the overall patterns of income segregation found in the municipality. Many areas that score low in social vulnerability endure high exposure to floods. The social vulnerability index can support municipalities in designing just and equitable interventions toward flood risk reduction by serving as an input to policymaking, investment strategies, and civil protection.
PubDate: 2023-05-18T00:00:00Z
- Storing carbon dioxide for climate's sake: contradictions and parallels
with enhanced oil recovery
Authors: Emily Rodriguez
Abstract: An increase in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, including bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), has led to an urgent demand for storage sites, and Norway stands out for its ongoing and planned geological storage sites in a European context. Even though there are no commercial carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) projects in Norway and the North Sea, there is scientific literature linking CO2-EOR and CCS in this geographical region. CO2-EOR utilizes CO2 to extract additional oil, counteracting the climate change mitigation purpose of geological storage. This review article explores how CCS is represented in the scientific literature on CO2-EOR in the North Sea and Norway, with a focus on system synergies and contradictions in relation to climate change mitigation. The main themes in the scientific literature on CO2-EOR in the North Sea are climate change, economics, and geological feasibility. Monitoring, safety, and leakage in addition to transportation of CO2 are less salient. The results show that there are contrasting framings in the literature. One framing is that CO2-EOR is a gateway to large-scale storage which maintains, or even expands, the extraction of fossil fuels and contributes to a sustainable transition in the long run through knowledge building and shared infrastructure. In contrast, another framing is that CO2-EOR combined with CCS have goal conflicts and are therefore not compatible, illustrating complexities with geological storage. Finally, this study reflects on how techno-economic research on CO2 storage in the North Sea and Norway is furthered through critical social science perspectives.
PubDate: 2023-05-18T00:00:00Z
- Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in cities from ABC
Paulista, in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo—Brazil
Authors: María Cleofé Valverde, Bianca Nunes Calado, Gabrielle Gomes Calado, Larissa Yumi Kuroki, Ricardo Brambila, Aline Ramos de Sousa
Abstract: Cities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's impacts and poorly adapted to extreme variability. This study aimed to evaluate climate projections of air temperature and precipitation in seven cities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo that correspond to the Greater ABC Paulista. We used high-resolution models Eta-HADGEM2_ES (CMIP5), CNRM-CM6-1-HR (CMIP6), and the TerraClimate database to analyze future projections and the specific warming levels (SWLs), respectively. Model data were validated with observed data and bias was removed. A bias correction factor was generated and used in the climate projections for the different emission scenarios. The results show a consensus between the models and the SWLs (2 and 4°C) for the increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures for all municipalities in ABC Paulista in different emission scenarios until the end of the 21st century. For the nearest future (2020–2040), the city of São Caetano do Sul (SCS) shows the highest positive annual anomalies of Tmax concerning the climatological period (1985–2015), for the scenario RCP4.5 (2.8°C) and the RCP8.5 (7.4°C), according to projections from the Eta-HADGEM2_ES, highlighting summer and autumn as the hottest. For precipitation, there was a consensus between the Eta-HADGEM2_ES and the CNRM-CM6-1-HR for a reduction in all scenarios and time-slices 2020–2040 and 2041–2070. The municipalities of Diadema (−78.4%) and SCS (−78%) showed the most significant reductions in December for the RCP8.5, and for SSP5-8.5, SCS shows −30.9% in December for the 2020–2040 time-slice. On the other hand, TerraClimate presents excess rain for Ribeirão Pires (+24.8%) and Santo André (+23.7%) in winter for SWL4°C. These results suggest that an increase in Tmax and Tmin, as projected, should influence the intensity of extreme heat events. Furthermore, a reduction in annual and seasonal rainfall does not mean a decrease in the region's extreme daily events that cause floods and landslides. However, it leaves an alert of water scarcity for the supply and demand of the population. ABC Paulista does not have adaptation plans to face extreme climate change. The results can contribute to the first phase of creating an adaptation plan, giving a first view of the climate threat that should intensify until the end of the twentieth century affecting the most vulnerable municipalities.
PubDate: 2023-05-17T00:00:00Z
- Evaluating farm household resilience and perceptions of the role of
small-scale irrigation in improving adaptability to climate change stress:
evidence from eastern Ethiopia
Authors: Ibsa Dawid, Jema Haji, Mohammed Aman
Abstract: This study surveys farmers in the Kersa district, East Hararghe zone, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia, to assess their adaptability and their perceptions of the role of small-scale irrigation in improving resilience to climate change. Data were collected from a sample of 288 randomly selected households (130 adopters and 158 non-adopters of small-scale irrigation). A household survey was used to gather quantitative data, and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Data were analyzed using principal component analysis to generate the resilience capacity index of the households. Analysis revealed that adopters were better off on all indicators of resilience, including access to food and income, assets, agricultural production, stability, and adaptive capacity. The findings also suggest that households with high resilience are more resilient to climate change. These results suggest that small-scale irrigation increases responsiveness to irregular weather patterns, significantly contributing to increasing farmers' resilience by minimizing the impacts of climate change. Therefore, policymakers should pay due attention to mitigating the impacts of climate change and improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers.
PubDate: 2023-05-17T00:00:00Z
- The climate-biodiversity-health nexus: a framework for integrated
community sustainability planning in the Anthropocene
Authors: Robert Newell
Abstract: Integrated approaches to planning and policy are important for making progress toward sustainability. A variety of frameworks have been developed for facilitating such approaches to planning and policy, such as the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. However, the WEF nexus has been criticized for a lack of clarity in how to apply the framework, whereas a goals-oriented framework potentially could be more easily applied and operationalized. This paper proposes such a framework, referred to here as the climate-biodiversity-health (CBH) nexus. The paper details the features of the CBH nexus framework, the interactions among its domains, and its potential applications. The CBH nexus consists of three domains (i.e., climate action, biodiversity conservation, and community health) and six subdomains (i.e., climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, habitat protection and regeneration, wildlife health and welfare, physical health, and mental health). The framework can be applied in practice to develop checklists/toolkits for guiding new development and as a basis for creating community indicator systems. It can also be applied in research to identify gaps in planning and policy documents and as a lens for participatory modeling exercises. Continued experimentation with, and improvement of, the CBH framework will reveal its most useful applications, thereby opening new opportunities for communities to effectively develop and implement integrated sustainability plans and policies.
PubDate: 2023-05-16T00:00:00Z
- Yes we can' Effects of a participatory visioning process on perceived
climate efficacy
Authors: Jonas Peisker, Thomas Schinko
Abstract: Lack of perceived efficacy can be an important barrier to climate mitigation action at various scales. Here, we study how a participatory visioning process, the Climate Modernity workshop in Styria, Austria, affected participants' efficacy outcomes. To this end, we conducted two survey waves eliciting self- and response efficacy regarding possible mitigation measures. We estimate difference-in-differences models and corroborate the findings using qualitative participant feedback. The results indicate that the intervention tended to decrease personal self-efficacy, in particular with regard to controversial topics like the transformation of the transport system. This suggests that participatory stakeholder processes can draw attention to the conflict potential and complexity of specific mitigation policies, decreasing the perceived feasibility of implementing them. The workshop, however, tended to increase particpants' personal response efficacy, particularly regarding voting for pro-environmental candidates. Accordingly, participatory processes could raise trust in the democratic process and in the effectiveness of making a green voting decision.
PubDate: 2023-05-15T00:00:00Z
- The resource (in)sufficiency of the Caribbean: analyzing socio-metabolic
risks (SMR) of water, energy, and
food|Introduction|Methods|Results|Discussion
Authors: Francisco Martin del Campo, Simron Jit Singh, Eric Mijts
Abstract: IntroductionSocio-metabolic risks (SMRs) are systemic risks associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the distribution of their costs and benefits in a socio-ecological system. For resource-stressed systems like small island nations, understanding trade-offs and synergies between critical resources is not only crucial, but urgent. Climate change is already putting small islands at high risk through more frequent and intense extreme weather events, changing precipitation patterns, and threats of inundation with future sea-level rise.MethodsThis study compares the shifting resource-baseline for 14 Caribbean island nations for the year 2000 and 2017. We analyze water, energy, and food (WEF) and their nexus through the lens of SMRs, using indicators related to their availability, access, consumption, and self-sufficiency.ResultsOur findings point to the decreasing availability of all three resources within the Caribbean region. Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2017, consumption levels have increased by 20% with respect to water (from 230 to 275 m3/cap/yr) and primary energy (from 89 to 110 GJ/cap/yr), and 5% for food (from 2,570 to 2,700 kcal/cap/day). While universal access to these resources increased in the population, food and energy self-sufficiency of the region has declined.DiscussionCurrent patterns of resource-use, combined with maladaptive practices, and climate insensitive development—such as coastal squeeze, centralized energy systems, and trade policies—magnify islands' vulnerability. Disturbances, such as climate-induced extreme events, environmental changes, financial crises, or overexploitation of local resources, could lead to cascading dysfunction and eventual breakdown of the biophysical basis of island systems. This research is a first attempt at operationalizing the concept of SMRs, and offers a deeper understanding of risk-related resource dynamics on small islands, and highlights the urgency for policy response.
PubDate: 2023-05-10T00:00:00Z
- Editorial: Harmonizing life cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic
analysis (TEA) guidelines: a common framework for consistent conduct and
transparent reporting of carbon dioxide removal and CCU technology
appraisal
Authors: Volker Sick, Katy Armstrong, Sheikh Moni
PubDate: 2023-05-09T00:00:00Z
- Application of a bivariate bias-correction approach to yield long-term
attributes of Indian precipitation and temperature
Authors: Chanchal Gupta, Rajarshi Das Bhowmik
Abstract: The General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation had shown potential in yielding long-term statistical attributes of Indian precipitation and temperature which exhibit substantial inter-seasonal variation. However, GCM outputs experience substantial model structural bias that needs to be reduced prior to forcing them into hydrological models and using them in deriving insights on the impact of climate change. Traditionally, univariate bias correction approaches that can successfully yield the mean and the standard deviation of the observed variable, while ignoring the interdependence between multiple variables, are considered. Limited efforts have been made to develop bivariate bias-correction over a large region with an additional focus on the cross-correlation between two variables. Considering these, the current study suggests two objectives: (i) To apply a bivariate bias correction approach based on bivariate ranking to reduce bias in GCM historical simulation over India, (ii) To explore the potential of the proposed approach in yielding inter-seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature while also yielding the cross-correlation. This study considers three GCMs with fourteen ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Assessment Report-5 (CMIP5). The bivariate ranks of meteorological pairs are applied on marginal ranks till a stationary position is achieved. Results show that the bivariate approach substantially reduces bias in the mean and the standard deviation. Further, the bivariate approach performs better during non-monsoon months as compared to monsoon months in reducing the bias in the cross-correlation between precipitation and temperature as the typical negative cross-correlation structure is common during non-monsoon months. The study finds that the proposed approach successfully reproduces inter-seasonal variation in metrological variables across India.
PubDate: 2023-05-05T00:00:00Z
- TRANSLATE: standardized climate projections for Ireland
Authors: Enda O'Brien, Paul Nolan
Abstract: The TRANSLATE project was established in 2021 by Met Éireann, the Irish national meteorological service, to provide standardized future climate projections for Ireland. This paper outlines the principles and main methods that were used to generate the first set of such projections and presents selected results to the end of the 21st century. Two separate ensembles of dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections were analyzed. These produce very consistent results, increasing confidence in both, and in the methods used. Future projected fields show plenty of detail (depending on local geography), but the change maps relative to the base period are much smoother, reflecting the global climate change signal. Future forcing uncertainty is represented by 3 different emission scenarios, while model response uncertainty is represented by sub-ensembles corresponding to different climate sensitivities. The resulting matrix of distinct climate ensembles is complemented by ensembles of temperature threshold-based projections, drawn from the same underlying simulations.
PubDate: 2023-05-04T00:00:00Z
- Editorial: Progresses in Indo-Pacific climate predictions
Authors: Swadhin Kumar Behera, Jing-Jia Luo
PubDate: 2023-04-25T00:00:00Z
- Assessing compounding risks across multiple systems and sectors: a
socio-environmental systems risk-triage approach
Authors: C. Adam Schlosser, Cypress Frankenfeld, Sebastian Eastham, Xiang Gao, Angelo Gurgel, Alyssa McCluskey, Jennifer Morris, Shelli Orzach, Kilian Rouge, Sergey Paltsev, John Reilly
Abstract: Physical and societal risks across the natural, managed, and built environments are becoming increasingly complex, multi-faceted, and compounding. Such risks stem from socio-economic and environmental stresses that co-evolve and force tipping points and instabilities. Robust decision-making necessitates extensive analyses and model assessments for insights toward solutions. However, these exercises are consumptive in terms of computational and investigative resources. In practical terms, such exercises cannot be performed extensively—but selectively in terms of priority and scale. Therefore, an efficient analysis platform is needed through which the variety of multi-systems/sector observational and simulated data can be readily incorporated, combined, diagnosed, visualized, and in doing so, identifies “hotspots” of salient compounding threats. In view of this, we have constructed a “triage-based” visualization and data-sharing platform—the System for the Triage of Risks from Environmental and Socio-Economic Stressors (STRESS)—that brings together data across socio-environmental systems, economics, demographics, health, biodiversity, and infrastructure. Through the STRESS website, users can display risk indices that result from weighted combinations of risk metrics they can select. Currently, these risk metrics include land-, water-, and energy systems, biodiversity, as well as demographics, environmental equity, and transportation networks. We highlight the utility of the STRESS platform through several demonstrative analyses over the United States from the national to county level. The STRESS is an open-science tool and available to the community-at-large. We will continue to develop it with an open, accessible, and interactive approach, including academics, researchers, industry, and the general public.
PubDate: 2023-04-24T00:00:00Z
- Long-term shift and recent early onset of chlorophyll-a bloom and coastal
upwelling along the southern coast of Java
Authors: Takanori Horii, Iwao Ueki, Eko Siswanto, Iskhaq Iskandar
Abstract: Long-term change in the timing of coastal upwelling due to climate variations alters the heat budget and biogeochemical balance in the regional ocean and is an important issue in local fisheries. In this study, we investigated decadal changes in the onset of coastal upwelling along the southern coast of Java over the past two decades (2003–2020) based on the timing of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) bloom. We estimated the bloom from satellite Chl-a concentration data. On average, the onset of coastal upwelling observed (the first Chl-a bloom of the year) was around mid-June. In the most recent decade (2011–2020), earlier-onset upwelling (before early June) was observed frequently, and the linear trend for the onset date during 2003–2020 was about 2 weeks earlier/decade. To explore the causes of the change in the timing of the upwelling, we focused on the season (April–June) during which these earlier upwelling onsets occurred, and investigated decadal changes in atmosphere and ocean conditions associated with climate change. While sea surface temperature (SST) trends reflected a basin-wide warming pattern in the Indian Ocean, warming was not significant in the southeastern Indian Ocean. During the onset period of coastal upwelling, significant SST warming trends were also observed west of Sumatra. In association with the SST warming pattern, enhanced convective activity and convergent zonal winds around Sumatra were observed. Atmospheric forcing revealed trends favoring Ekman downwelling in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and upwelling in the southeastern Indian Ocean, which was consistent with the trends in thermocline depth. This study provides the first results regarding the recent decadal shift in the onset timing of coastal upwelling. Ongoing monitoring is needed to better understand the long-term change of the upwelling system in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
PubDate: 2023-04-20T00:00:00Z
- Climate-change scenarios require volatility effects to imply substantial
credit losses: shocks drive credit risk not changes in economic
trends|Introduction|Methods|Contributions
Authors: Scott D. Aguais, Laurence R. Forest
Abstract: IntroductionLong-run Macro-Prudential stability objectives for the banking system have recently motivated a detailed focus on potential future credit risks stemming from climate change. Led by regulators and the NGFS, early approaches apply smooth, top-down scenarios that utilize carbon emissions data combined with physical risk metrics. This general climate stress test approach assesses future credit losses for individual firms and the banking system. While the NGFS approach is in its infancy, a number of discussion points have been raised related to how the approach assesses future credit risks. In contrast to the NGFS approach that focuses on changes to long-run economic growth trends, higher credit risks generally arise from unexpected economic shocks to cashflows and asset values. Systematic shocks that impact many firms like those observed during the last three economic recessions clearly produce higher volatility and systematic deviations from average economic trends.MethodsIn this paper we briefly review aspects of current climate stress test approaches to set the context for our primary focus on assessing future climate induced credit risk and credit risk volatility using a multi credit-factor portfolio framework applied to a benchmark US C&I credit portfolio. First we compare various NGFS climate scenarios using NGFS GDP measures to a CCAR severely adverse stress scenario. We then undertake two additional assessments of future climate driven credit risk by applying an assumed relationship between NGFS global mean temperatures (GMTs) and credit-factor volatilities. All three prospective climate credit risk assessments utilize an empirically-based, credit-factor model estimated from market-based measures of credit risk to highlight the potential role for climate induced increases in volatility. The potential future drivers of volatility could stem from narrower physical risks or broader macro-economic, social or other systematic shocks driven by climate change. All three predicted credit loss assessments suggest that volatility not changes to economic trends ultimately drives higher potential credit risks relating to climate change.ContributionsThe key contributions of this paper are the application of empirically based credit factor models combined with higher climate-driven volatility assumptions that support statistical assessment of how climate change could impact credit risk losses.
PubDate: 2023-04-17T00:00:00Z
- From least cost to least risk: Producing climate change mitigation plans
that are resilient to multiple risks
Authors: Ajay Gambhir, Robert Lempert
Abstract: Our plans to tackle climate change could be thrown off-track by shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the energy supply crisis driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, financial crises and other such disruptions. We should therefore identify plans which are as resilient as possible to future risks, by systematically understanding the range of risks to which mitigation plans are vulnerable and how best to reduce such vulnerabilities. Here, we use electricity system decarbonization as a focus area, to highlight the different types of technological solutions, the different risks that may be associated with them, and the approaches, situated in a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) paradigm, that would allow the identification and enhanced resilience of mitigation pathways.
PubDate: 2023-04-17T00:00:00Z
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