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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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Frontiers in Climate
Number of Followers: 4  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 2624-9553
Published by Frontiers Media Homepage  [96 journals]
  • RCP8.5-projected changes in German Bight storm surge characteristics from
           

    • Authors: Bernhard Mayer, Moritz Mathis, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Thomas Pohlmann
      Abstract: This study investigates climate-induced changes in height, frequency and duration of storm surges in the German Bight. The regionally coupled climate model system MPIOM-REMO with a focus on the North Sea has been utilized to dynamically downscale 30 members of the global climate model system MPI-ESM1.1-LR for the historical period 1950–2005 and a continuation until 2099 with the RCP8.5 scenario. Results of all members have been collected into the historical (1970–1999) and the rcp85 (2070–2099) data pools amounting to 900 years of the corresponding climate state. The global mean sea level rise was not considered. Nevertheless, the mean ensemble German Bight SSH trend amounts to about 13 ± 1 cm/century (PI control: 3 cm/century) due to adaptation of the ocean circulation to the changing climatic conditions. Storm surges were defined as SSH above mean high tidal water plus 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 m for “regular”, heavy, extreme storm surges, and then clustered to events. Our simulated storm surge events show a clear location-dependent increase in frequency (6–11%), median duration (4–24%), and average duration (9–20%) in the German Bight. Only along the central German Bight coast (Cuxhaven), longer lasting events gain more relevance. Heavy storm surge events show also a strong increase in frequency (7–34%) and average duration (10–22%). Maximum sea levels during storm events increase strongest and most significant along the northern German Bight and Danish coasts with more than 30 cm/century for the 60-year return period at Hörnum and 10–15 cm/century for shorter return periods. Levels of return periods shorter than a few years significantly increase everywhere along the southern German Bight coasts (around 5 cm/century for the 2-year return period). Highest SSH maxima do not change, and consequently, extreme storm surge events show hardly any response to climate change. Furthermore, our results indicate a shift of seasonality from the last to the first quarter of a year. As the main driver for the encountered alteration of German Bight storm surge characteristics, we identified a change in wind conditions with a pronounced increase of frequency of strong westerly winds.
      PubDate: 2022-11-25T00:00:00Z
       
  • Introducing uncertainties in composite indicators. The case of the Impact
           Chain risk assessment framework

    • Authors: Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Miguel Agulles, Gabriel Jordà
      Abstract: The use of composite indices is widespread in many fields of knowledge but a common problem associated to those type of indices is how to introduce uncertain knowledge on them. One example would be the Impact Chain framework for risk assessment. This methodology has proven to be a robust and effective approach to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk allowing to naturally consider the different components that shape that risk. However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned weights. In this paper, we propose to use a probabilistic framework that would allow to consider uncertain knowledge in the composite indicator computation. Moreover, in the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that methodology. This web-based application is designed as a multidimensional tool to consider uncertainties in any type of composite indicator, thus, its scope goes beyond the Impact Chain and risk analysis framework. For illustrative purposes, the tool has been applied to a case study on the risk of loss tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain. This case study is used to show how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk assessment. Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation strategies. Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
      PubDate: 2022-11-23T00:00:00Z
       
  • Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the
           2000s|Introduction|Results and methods|Discussion

    • Authors: Takashi Mochizuki, Masahiro Watanabe
      Abstract: IntroductionA subdecadal (i.e. , three-year running mean) variation over the tropical Pacific is very distinctively observed in the 2000s.Results and methodsHere, we have demonstrated that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic contribute to forming high ocean-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific in the early 2000s by performing partial data assimilation of a global climate model. Low SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic change the Walker circulation, and the associated weakening of the Pacific trade winds raises the equatorial SST on subdecadal timescales. At the same time, a high SST anomaly is also generated in the off-equatorial North Pacific through deepening of the upper ocean thermocline due to an accompanying anticyclonic surface wind anomaly aloft. While the subtropical North Atlantic SSTs may help the subdecadal warming in the equatorial Pacific, the resultant SST anomalies show a one-year delay in the phase transition and are modestly accompanied by ocean thermocline deepening.DiscussionIt roughly follows the IMRaD format.
      PubDate: 2022-11-22T00:00:00Z
       
  • Corrigendum: Assessment of the oceanic channel dynamics responsible for
           the IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection in CMIP5 climate models

    • Authors: Tengfei Xu, Dongliang Yuan, Jing Wang
      PubDate: 2022-11-21T00:00:00Z
       
  • The intensification of consecutive three tropical cyclones passing over a
           warm ocean eddy in the South China Sea

    • Authors: Xi Luo, Wei Yang, Lei Yang, Dongxiao Wang
      Abstract: An extremely strong and long-lasting (more than 8 months) oceanic warm core eddy existed in the South China Sea (SCS) from February–October 2010. From July–August 2010, three tropical cyclones (TCs; TC Conson, Chanthu, and Mindulle) consecutively passed over this eddy and sustained at least 21 h. The intensity change of all three TCs reached 20 kt within 24 h when they encountered this eddy. In mid-late July, tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) is overall stronger in the eddy region than in its surrounding region, thus TCHP plays an important role in the intensification of TC Conson and Chanthu. It is also found that the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) can be important in favor of the further enhancement of TCs. The TCHP is too low to favor the intensity increase of TC Mindulle in late August, 2010, but weak vertical wind shear, ISO and QBWO act as key roles in the intensification of TC Mindulle.
      PubDate: 2022-11-17T00:00:00Z
       
  • Editorial: Climate risk management in smallholder agriculture

    • Authors: Delia C. Catacutan, Celia A. Harvey, Ingrid Öborn, Meine van Noordwijk
      PubDate: 2022-11-17T00:00:00Z
       
  • Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali' A climate
           security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach

    • Authors: Grazia Pacillo, Daniel Kangogo, Ignacio Madurga-Lopez, Victor Villa, Anna Belli, Peter Läderach
      Abstract: Climate continues to pose significant challenges to human existence. Notably, in the past decade, the focus on the role of climate on conflict and social unrest has gained traction in academic, development, and policy communities. This article examines the link between climate variability and conflict in Mali. It advances the argument that climate is a threat multiplier, in other words, climate indirectly affects conflict occurrence through numerous pathways. We take the view that maize production and household food security status sequentially mediate the relationship between climate variability and the different conflict types. First, we provide a brief review of the climate conflict pathways in Mali. Second, we employ the path analysis within the structural equation modeling technique to test the hypothesized pathways and answer the research questions. We use the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), a nationally representative data from Mali merged with time and location-specific climate and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data. Results show that an increase in positive temperature anomalies when sequentially mediated by maize production and household food security status, increase the occurrence of the different conflict types. The results are robust to the use of negative precipitation anomalies (tendency toward less precipitation compared to the historical norm). Our findings highlight two key messages, first, the crucial role of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and interventions on influencing household food security status and thus reducing conflict occurrence. Second, that efforts to build peace and security should account for the role of climate in exacerbating the root causes of conflict.
      PubDate: 2022-11-16T00:00:00Z
       
  • Gendered exposure, vulnerability, and response: Malaria risk in a changing
           climate in Western Kenya

    • Authors: Esther Onyango, Rowena Maguire
      Abstract: Climate change has been linked to increasing rates of malaria infection in Western Kenya. Projections show an increased risk of malaria infection under climate change scenarios, impacting vulnerable populations and placing millions of people at risk. Developing suitable risk management strategies requires understanding the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and response to climate change and malaria risk in the context of other local environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural factors (including gender) that influence exposure, vulnerability and capacity to cope. This paper draws upon two analytical frameworks, using data gathered from focus group discussions with small-scale farmers in Western Kenya: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Risk Assessment Framework; and Feminist Political Ecology (FPE) to analyze social constructions underpinning farming responsibilities and decision-making power and how these influence the gendered dimensions of exposure, vulnerability and response to climate change and malaria risk in the community. This paper finds that gender influences the risk of malaria through feminization of agricultural activities in the region, socially constructed gendered responsibilities for care and farm work, which increases exposure and vulnerability to mosquito bites and malaria infection, and socially constructed rights of women to make farming decisions and manage farm income, which influences their capacity to manage risk and cope in the long term. Drawing on these findings, this paper proposes that an intersectional gender lens needs to be incorporated into climate and malaria adaptation policy and programming. It concludes with recommendations for implementing the UNFCCC Enhanced Lima Work Program on Gender at the country levels and the development of gender-responsive climate change and malaria risk management.
      PubDate: 2022-11-16T00:00:00Z
       
  • Causal relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation
           revealed by information flow

    • Authors: Ziyu Ye, Tomoki Tozuka
      Abstract: The atmosphere and the ocean are coupled with each other through various processes. Therefore, it is of great importance to understand the causality relationship between the atmosphere and the ocean for predicting their states. Here we apply the normalized information flow (NIF) to sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation data to investigate the causality from the atmosphere to the ocean and from the ocean to the atmosphere. When the global spatial structure of the local NIFs is calculated for both directions, it is found that the ocean affects the atmosphere more in the tropics, while the atmosphere affects the ocean more in the extratropics. This causality relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere agrees with previous studies. To examine the teleconnections, the remote NIFs are then calculated and compared with the local NIFs. The local impact from SST to precipitation is dominant in almost all tropical regions, while the relative importance of remote impacts is higher for the precipitation-to-SST NIFs, except for a small area in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. Regional analyses for six selected areas within the tropics are also presented. This study suggests that NIFs may be a powerful tool to study ocean-atmosphere interactions.
      PubDate: 2022-11-15T00:00:00Z
       
  • Decadal variability of the interannual climate predictability associated
           with the Indo-Pacific oceanic channel dynamics in CCSM4

    • Authors: Dongliang Yuan, Peng Xu, Tengfei Xu, Xia Zhao
      Abstract: The lag correlations between the observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the Pacific cold tongue at the one-year time lag are calculated in running windows of 7–11 years and are shown to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) that participates in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5). During the positive phases of the decadal variability, the significant lag correlations are diagnosed to be dominated by the oceanic channel dynamics, i.e., upwelling Kelvin waves associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) force enhanced Indonesian Throughflow transport anomalies and western Pacific thermocline anomalies to propagate eastward, resulting in SSTA in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. During the negative phases of the decadal variability, the subsurface lag correlations suggest that the western Pacific Ocean are still dominated by the oceanic channel dynamics, but do not correlate well with the SSTA in the cold tongue due to a deeper thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing during either the positive or the negative decadal phases. The CCSM4 model is found to underestimate Indonesian Throughflow transport variability but overestimate the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific, which forces unrealistic anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean associated with the IOD.
      PubDate: 2022-11-11T00:00:00Z
       
  • Modulation of sea surface temperature in three oceans on precipitation
           increase over Northwest China during the past 60 years: A review

    • Authors: Yihui Ding, Ping Wu, Yanju Liu
      Abstract: Northwest China is a typical arid and semi-arid region that is part of Central Asia. However, during the past 60 years, the climate in Northwest China has shown a warm and humid trend, with both average and extreme precipitation continuing to increase. Humidification in Northwest China is mainly caused by anomalous westward water vapor transport. Change in the water vapor transport path is directly related to the Mongolian anticyclone anomaly and weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. Our research shows that interdecadal changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Indian oceans, play an important role in interdecadal adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the wetting climate over Northwest China. Since the 1980s, the Indian Ocean has been warming continuously, and the land–sea thermal gradient has weakened, resulting in a significant reduction in water vapor transport of the Asian summer monsoon. In contrast, anomalous northerly water vapor transport from the polar region increased. Concurrently, SST over the North Atlantic is also warming, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) changes from the negative to positive phase, triggering anomalous anticyclones over Mongolia, which also leads to weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. Therefore, eastern China is affected by abnormal northeast winds. These northeast winds can continuously transport water vapor to the western region of China, leading to the prevalence of easterly winds in Northwest China. Moreover, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) changed from the positive to negative phase after the 1990s, which promoted the East Asian westerly jet to move to the Arctic and produce easterly anomalies in East Asia and Northwest China. Interdecadal changes in SST over the Indian, North Atlantic, and North Pacific Oceans all have reduced summer water vapor from the Indian Ocean. However, water vapor from the North Pacific and high latitudes (including the polar region) can be transported to Northwest China through easterly anomalies, resulting in increased precipitation and climate humidification.
      PubDate: 2022-11-08T00:00:00Z
       
  • Sea surface height fluctuations relevant to Indian summer monsoon over the
           northwestern Indian Ocean

    • Authors: Xiaolin Zhang, Takashi Mochizuki
      Abstract: We examined the interannual variations in sea surface height (SSH) over the northwestern Indian Ocean during 1993–2016, by using in situ observations along the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula together with satellite observations, objective analysis, and reanalysis. Focusing on the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon relative to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes, we found that the monsoon predominantly controls the summertime SSH variations at the in situ observatories, consistent with satellite observations. The monsoon is closely related to the SSH at a specific observatory in almost all seasons, whereas the wintertime SSH is strongly influenced by ENSO and IOD at other observatories. These SSH variations with local modulations in the coastal area were accompanied by basin-scale variations. The reduced southwesterly monsoon wind, for example, is found with the reduced ocean upwelling narrowly confined near the coast and the upper ocean temperature rise implying reduced meridional heat transport over the south of the Arabian Peninsula.
      PubDate: 2022-11-08T00:00:00Z
       
  • Climate-induced migrant's hopeful journey toward security: Pushing the
           boundaries of gendered vulnerability and adaptability in Bangladesh

    • Authors: Sufia Khanom, Mumita Tanjeela, Shannon Rutherford
      Abstract: Every year 10,000 climate-induced migrants in Bangladesh leave their homes seeking safer locations away from the climate-induced disasters they have experienced. They commonly migrate to nearby urban areas or the capital city after losing their livelihoods in their place of origin. However, the unplanned urbanization, limited capacities of urban infrastructures, service sector deficiencies, man-made disasters, and other social vulnerabilities further push these migrants into an (in)secure state. Hopes of security and capacity to adapt in their new homes can be impacted by the patriarchal society where gender is often associated with unequal social relations and hierarchies. These might extend from every day to long term (in)security. This study draws on qualitative data collected as part of research conducted for two PhD projects. In both cases, climate-induced migrants were forced to migrate from their places of origin due to sea level rise, river erosion, and soil salinity to Dhaka (capital city) and Coxes Bazar (coastal city) of Bangladesh. In this context, are their adaptive capacities influenced by gender relations' How are these adaptive capacities shaped through different institutions' And, how can these adaptive actions improve/strengthen human security' Gendered power relations are the main analytical framework for this paper as power is an influential factor to shape adaptive capabilities. It argues that (in)security, as an outcome of unsustainable adaptability, further pushes climate-induced migrants in vulnerable conditions in their newly settled urban areas. The vulnerability, capacity to adapt, and (in)security are gendered. This will contribute to understand for whom, where, and how the exclusive adaptative initiatives would further place the climate-induced migrants in vulnerable and (in)secure conditions in their newly settled areas.
      PubDate: 2022-11-07T00:00:00Z
       
  • Changing the climate risk trajectory for coral reefs

    • Authors: Scott A. Condie
      Abstract: Coral reefs are extremely vulnerable to climate change and their recent degradation will continue unless we can instigate strong global climate action with effective regional interventions. Many types of intervention have been proposed and some aspects of their deployment are now being tested. However, their long-term efficacy under climate change can only be evaluated using complex biophysical models applied over a range of plausible socio-economic pathways. The associated uncertainties in climate trajectories, ecological responses, and the mitigating effects of interventions, necessitate the use of a risk-based approach to evaluating model results. I show that ensemble modeling can be used to develop rigorous risk assessments suitable for comparing intervention strategies. A major strength of this approach is that all the key elements required for risk assessment (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and impacts) can be generated by the model in a dynamically consistent form. This is a major advance on semi-quantitative climate change vulnerability risk assessments that estimate these quantities independently and then combine them under additional assumptions. Applying ensemble modeling risk assessment to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) suggests that regional intervention strategies, such as solar radiation management (SRM) and control of coral predators, can slow the increase in risk and potentially avoid extreme risks predicted for the second half of the century. Model results further suggest that deployments focused within the northern and central GBR will be most effective due to underlying patterns of reef connectivity.
      PubDate: 2022-11-04T00:00:00Z
       
  • Marine heatwaves in shallow coastal ecosystems are coupled with the
           atmosphere: Insights from half a century of daily in situ temperature
           records

    • Authors: Felix Cook, Robert O. Smith, Moninya Roughan, Nicolas J. Cullen, Nick Shears, Melissa Bowen
      Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean temperature events that can have wide-ranging and pervasive effects on marine species and ecosystems. However, studies of MHW characteristics and drivers primarily focus on open-ocean environments, rather than the nearshore coastal ocean (
      PubDate: 2022-11-03T00:00:00Z
       
  • Editorial: The state of the art in climate predictions

    • Authors: Swadhin Kumar Behera, Annalisa Cherchi, Jing-Jia Luo, Arun Kumar
      PubDate: 2022-11-03T00:00:00Z
       
  • Community-based approaches to support the anchoring of climate-smart
           agriculture in Tanzania

    • Authors: Haki Pamuk, Marcel van Asseldonk, Cor Wattel, Stanley Karanja Ng'ang'a, Joseph Philip Hella, Ruerd Ruben
      Abstract: We assess the impact of community-based approaches to promote adoption of integrated climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices based on soybean cultivation combined with mulching, intercropping, crop rotation, manure application and rhizobium inoculation methods. We use quasi-experimental data of farmers participating in Farmer Field Business Schools (FFBS) and Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) in Iringa region of Tanzania. Farmers received technical training and financial support for the initial adoption of soybean production, and women's empowerment supported household's continuous involvement in CSA practices. We find a positive effect for farmers participating in the trainings provided by the FFBSs and receiving microfinance services from VLSA members on the adoption rates of several CSA practices, and this effect became more pronounced for households with higher scores on women empowerment. Farm-level improvement in soybean production and market-level incentives for soybean sales should also strengthen household income, consumption and nutrition levels to maintain CSA practices. Community-based platforms create critical external conditions for introducing CSA practices, but women's empowerment is indispensable for intrinsic incentives for anchoring their adoption.
      PubDate: 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z
       
  • Scoping carbon dioxide removal options for Germany–What is their
           potential contribution to Net-Zero CO2'

    • Authors: Malgorzata Borchers, Daniela Thrän, Yaxuan Chi, Nicolaus Dahmen, Roland Dittmeyer, Tobias Dolch, Christian Dold, Johannes Förster, Michael Herbst, Dominik Heß, Aram Kalhori, Ketil Koop-Jakobsen, Zhan Li, Nadine Mengis, Thorsten B. H. Reusch, Imke Rhoden, Torsten Sachs, Cornelia Schmidt-Hattenberger, Angela Stevenson, Terese Thoni, Jiajun Wu, Christopher Yeates
      Abstract: In its latest assessment report the IPCC stresses the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to counterbalance residual emissions to achieve net zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions. There are currently a wide variety of CDR measures available. Their potential and feasibility, however, depends on context specific conditions, as among others biophysical site characteristics, or availability of infrastructure and resources. In our study, we selected 13 CDR concepts which we present in the form of exemplary CDR units described in dedicated fact sheets. They cover technical CO2 removal (two concepts of direct air carbon capture), hybrid solutions (six bioenergy with carbon capture technologies) and five options for natural sink enhancement. Our estimates for their CO2 removal potentials in 2050 range from 0.06 to 30 million tons of CO2, depending on the option. Ten of the 13 CDR concepts provide technical removal potentials higher than 1 million tons of CO2 per year. To better understand the potential contribution of analyzed CDR options to reaching net-zero CO2 emissions, we compare our results with the current CO2 emissions and potential residual CO2 emissions in 2050 in Germany. To complement the necessary information on technology-based and hybrid options, we also provide an overview on possible solutions for CO2 storage for Germany. Taking biophysical conditions and infrastructure into account, northern Germany seems a preferable area for deployment of many concepts. However, for their successful implementation further socio-economic analysis, clear regulations, and policy incentives are necessary.
      PubDate: 2022-10-31T00:00:00Z
       
  • Editorial: Gender and social consideration in climate and impacts research
           and services

    • Authors: Emily C. Adams, Kathryn Grace, Shraddhanand Shukla
      PubDate: 2022-10-31T00:00:00Z
       
  • Assessment of the oceanic channel dynamics responsible for the IOD-ENSO
           precursory teleconnection in CMIP5 climate models

    • Authors: Tengfei Xu, Dongliang Yuan, Jing Wang
      Abstract: Existed studies have suggested a precursory relation between Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño and the Southern Oscillations (ENSO) with 1-year time lag. The underlying mechanisms were attributed to atmospheric bridge and/or oceanic channel processes. In this study, the oceanic channel dynamics in 23 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are assessed by correlation analyses in comparison with observations. The results show that the lag correlations between the IOD and ENSO anomalies associated with oceanic channel are significant, suggesting important role of oceanic channel dynamics in the cross-basin teleconnection in the analyzed CMIP5 models, consistent with observational analyses. In comparison, the correlations associated with atmospheric bridge are highly dispersive among the models and generally inconsistent with the observational analyses, suggesting model deficiencies. In a single climate model, the lag correlations associated with oceanic channel dynamics are consistent among different ensemble experiments, whereas those associated with atmospheric bridge processes are dispersive.
      PubDate: 2022-10-31T00:00:00Z
       
 
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