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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted by number of followers
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 165)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 153)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 79)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 71)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 71)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 62)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 59)
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 56)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 55)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 50)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 43)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 41)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 40)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 33)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 30)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 27)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 23)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Journal of Economic Literature     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 19)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 14)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 9)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Climate Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 7)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Climate Change and Health     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Oxford Open Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Nīvār     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  

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Frontiers in Climate
Number of Followers: 4  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 2624-9553
Published by Frontiers Media Homepage  [96 journals]
  • A deep learning model for forecasting global monthly mean sea surface
           temperature anomalies

    • Authors: John Taylor, Ming Feng
      Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale. The ability to make long-range forecasts of SST variations and extreme marine heatwave events have potentially significant economic and societal benefits, especially in a warming climate. We have developed a deep learning time series prediction model (Unet-LSTM), based on more than 70 years (1950–2021) of ECMWF ERA5 monthly mean SST and 2-m air temperature data, to predict global 2-dimensional SSTs up to a 24-month lead. Model prediction skills are high in the equatorial and subtropical Pacific. We have assessed the ability of the model to predict SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region, an ENSO index in the equatorial Pacific, and the Blob marine heatwave events in the northeast Pacific in detail. An assessment of the predictions of the 2019–2020 El Niño and the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 La Niña show that the model has skill up to 18 months in advance. The prediction of the 2015–2016 extreme El Niño is less satisfactory, which suggests that subsurface ocean information may be crucial for the evolution of this event. Note that the model makes predictions of the 2-d monthly SST field and Nino 3.4 is just one region embedded in the global field. The model also shows long lead prediction skills for the northeast Pacific marine heatwave, the Blob. However, the prediction of the marine heatwaves in the southeast Indian Ocean, the Ningaloo Niño, shows a short lead prediction. These results indicate the significant potential of data-driven methods to yield long-range predictions of SST anomalies.
      PubDate: 2022-09-28T00:00:00Z
       
  • Drivers of migration intentions in the Volta Delta: Investigating the
           effect of climate-related hazards and adaptation strategies

    • Authors: Mumuni Abu, D. Yaw Atiglo, Cynthia Addoquaye Tagoe, Samuel N. Codjoe
      Abstract: The decision to migrate involves multiple causes and motivations with environmental factors subsumed by economic and other dimensions. Deltas are rich in natural resources but are also vulnerable to environmental hazards making them a hotspot for out-migration. In spite of some infrastructural interventions, specifically in the Volta Delta, to minimize the environmental effects, there is scant evidence of their impacts on livelihoods and the potential to reverse out-migration trends and aspirations. Additionally, there is little knowledge on the key drivers of migration in the area. Using data from the 2016 DECCMA household survey in Ghana, we found that exposure to drought does not trigger migration intentions, however, exposure to erosion and salinity do. Households capable of diverse adaptation options have a higher likelihood of migration intention. Households whose main livelihood is ecosystem-based were less likely to have the intention to migrate compared with those whose livelihoods were non-ecosystem based. The study provides insights into future migration intentions and drivers of migration in the Volta Delta.
      PubDate: 2022-09-27T00:00:00Z
       
  • Top lesson from COVID for solar geoengineering: Anticipatory research is
           needed

    • Authors: Sikina Jinnah, Jane C. S. Long
      Abstract: This perspective article argues that anticipatory research into possible “emergency” response measures such as solar geoengineering will increase knowledge, and thus confidence, in any future decisions to either deploy or reject these technologies. Similarities between COVID and climate can reveal some perspective on the benefits of anticipatory vaccine research for anticipatory for solar geoengineering research. Although we deeply hope governments will aggressively reduce emissions and scale up adaptation efforts in time to avoid the worst climate impacts, we argue that the benefits of anticipatory solar geoengineer research currently outweigh the risks of not moving research forward.
      PubDate: 2022-09-27T00:00:00Z
       
  • Can signal-to-noise ratio indicate prediction skill' Based on skill
           assessment of 1-month lead prediction of monthly temperature anomaly over
           Japan

    • Authors: Takeshi Doi, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin Behera
      Abstract: We present a skill assessment of 1-month lead deterministic predictions of monthly surface air temperature anomalies over most part of Japan based on a large-ensemble climate model, SINTEX-F. We found that September is the most predictable and the only month in which the prediction skill beats the persistence. Interestingly, however, prediction of December becomes skillful (correlation skill: 0.67) when we select only years in which the signal-to-noise ratio of the predictions is relatively high. This means that the signal-to-noise ratio can partly indicate the prediction skill. The inter-member co-variability suggests that a combination of the tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean surface temperature is the key for the prediction. Although seasonal climate prediction in the mid-latitude regions, such as Japan, is still challenging in general, providing the signal-to-noise ratio and the inter-member co-variability in addition to the real-time prediction might be useful for stakeholders to know how confident the individual prediction is, as well as its potential sources of predictability. Such information can be helpful to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce socio-economic losses associated with extreme climate.
      PubDate: 2022-09-23T00:00:00Z
       
  • Indigenous perceptions and adaptive responses to the impacts of climate
           variability in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia

    • Authors: Victoria-Eugenia Guáqueta-Solórzano, Julio C. Postigo
      Abstract: The exposure, risks, and impacts of climatic changes are most acute for marginalized and disenfranchised groups, particularly Indigenous Peoples. Worldwide, Indigenous Peoples are exposed to a wide range of climate threats that generate a broad spectrum of risks to their wellbeing. Responding to a request from the Arhuaco, this paper examines Arhuaco Indigenous perceptions of climatic variability, the impacts of this variability, and the response to such impacts. The empirical basis of the paper is the fieldwork on four Arhuaco settlements in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia. We gathered data through surveys, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. The results of our qualitative and quantitative analyses are: (1) Indigenous perception of climatic variability is consistent with meteorological data; (2) Loss of traditional crops is the most relevant impact; (3) Social and cultural capitals are the most used for adaptation strategies to climate variability; and (4) vulnerability results from non-climatic factors which shape the response capacity to environmental change. Insights from our work contribute to generate new knowledge about impacts of climate variability on Indigenous livelihoods, the responses to such impacts, and to understanding the linkages among climate, capitals, and adaptive responses from marginalized groups in Western society. Finally, our results provide valuable Indigenous practices and perspectives for improving policies to adapt to climate change and strengthen the resilience of local populations.
      PubDate: 2022-09-23T00:00:00Z
       
  • Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate
           in Brazil

    • Authors: Mári Ândrea Feldman Firpo, Bruno dos Santos Guimarães, Leydson Galvíncio Dantas, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da Silva, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Robin Chadwick, Marta Pereira Llopart, Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira
      Abstract: Brazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities.
      PubDate: 2022-09-21T00:00:00Z
       
  • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic
           risk: Concepts, models and governance

    • Authors: Sirkku Juhola, Tatiana Filatova, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Reinhard Mechler, Jürgen Scheffran, Pia-Johanna Schweizer
      Abstract: Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system. With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt. While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes, overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised. Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal. This paper brings together three strands of literature - social tipping points, climate adaptation limits and systemic risks, which so far have been separate. Furthermore, we discuss methods and models used to illustrate the dynamics of social and adaptation tipping points in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits. We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems, which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
      PubDate: 2022-09-21T00:00:00Z
       
  • Different types of drought under climate change or geoengineering:
           Systematic review of societal implications

    • Authors: Erin Coughlan de Perez, Ignacio Fuentes, Christopher Jack, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Izidine Pinto, Elisabeth Stephens
      Abstract: Climate change and solar geoengineering have different implications for drought. Climate change can “speed up” the hydrological cycle, but it causesgreater evapotranspiration than the historical climate because of higher temperatures. Solar geoengineering (stratospheric aerosol injection), on the other hand, tends to “slow down” the hydrological cycle while reducing potential evapotranspiration. There are two common definitions of drought that take this into account; rainfall-only (SPI) and potential-evapotranspiration (SPEI). In different regions of Africa, this can result in different versions of droughts for each scenario, with drier rainfall (SPI) droughts under geoengineering and drier potential-evapotranspiration (SPEI) droughts under climate change. However, the societal implications of these different types of drought are not clear. We present a systematic review of all papers comparing the relationship between real-world outcomes (streamflow, vegetation, and agricultural yields) with these two definitions of drought in Africa. We also correlate the two drought definitions (SPI and SPEI) with historical vegetation conditions across the continent. We find that potential-evapotranspiration-droughts (SPEI) tend to be more closely related with vegetation conditions, while rainfall-droughts (SPI) tend to be more closely related with streamflows across Africa. In many regions, adaptation plans are likely to be affected differently by these two drought types. In parts of East Africa and coastal West Africa, geoengineering could exacerbate both types of drought, which has implications for current investments in water infrastructure. The reverse is true in parts of Southern Africa. In the Sahel, sectors more sensitive to rainfall-drought (SPI), such as reservoir management, could see reduced water availability under solar geoengineering, while sectors more sensitive to potential-evapotranspiration-drought (SPEI), such as rainfed agriculture, could see increased water availability under solar geoengineering. Given that the implications of climate change and solar geoengineering futures are different in different regions and also for different sectors, we recommend that deliberations on solar geoengineering include the widest possible representation of stakeholders.
      PubDate: 2022-09-20T00:00:00Z
       
  • Lost in transformation: The Paris Agreement, the IPCC and the quest for
           national transformative change

    • Authors: Rolf Lidskog, Göran Sundqvist
      Abstract: The IPCC stated in its special report on global warming of 1. 5°C (SR15) that meeting the temperature target of the Paris Agreement requires rapid and far-reaching changes across all aspects of society. This is called a need for transformative change. However, what is meant by transformative change' What should be changed, and how should it be changed' These questions are explored in this paper, which is structured in three steps. First, it develops a conceptual meaning of transformative change that is centered on society. Then, it analyses how the IPCC in SR15 understands transformative change. The analysis finds that the proposed pathways to reach the targets of 1.5 and 2°C have a strong technical focus on energy supply, which makes broader and deeper transformative change almost unnecessary. This finding is related to the recently published IPCC report on mitigation. Even if institutional and socio-cultural dimensions of transformative change are better covered in this report, they are insufficiently integrated into the overall assessment of necessary transformative changes. Finally, it turns to the national level, analyzing Sweden's ambition to become the first fossil-free welfare society in the world. The analysis shows, in line with SR15, that Sweden has a restricted focus on changes in energy supply, making transformative change, such as restructuring the economic system and questioning consumption patterns, unnecessary. Based on this analysis of international (the IPCC) and national (Sweden) levels, this paper identifies a need for an elaborated, consistent and deeper understanding of transformative change. It concludes that to be relevant to countries' work to achieve ambitious climate targets, the IPCC should develop a more qualified understanding of transformative change, which requires a better integration of social science research.
      PubDate: 2022-09-20T00:00:00Z
       
  • The influence of tropical basin interactions on the 2020–2022
           double-dip La Niña

    • Authors: Nahid A. Hasan, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Michael J. McPhaden
      Abstract: The recharge oscillator mechanism suggests that a strong El Niño event can trigger a following La Niña event that sometimes lasts for two or even three years through warm water volume preconditioning within the tropical Pacific. However, a prominent and persistent “double-dip” La Niña event appeared in the boreal winters of 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 without any significant El Niño preconditioning. Here we explore the possibility that tropical basin interactions may have initiated and helped to prolong La Niña conditions over the 2-year period 2020–2022. This period was preceded by a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the boreal fall of 2019 that gave way to basin-scale warming in the Indian Ocean in early 2020 and a notable tropical Atlantic warming in the boreal winter of 2019/2020. Later, a strong Atlantic Niño developed in the boreal summer of 2021. Using composite analyses to characterize earlier double-dip La Niñas, we argue the unusual sequence of events in 2019–2021 in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans may have energized and sustained the 2020–2022 La Niña event without any significant warm water volume preconditioning within the tropical Pacific.
      PubDate: 2022-09-20T00:00:00Z
       
  • Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The
           Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

    • Authors: Doug M. Smith, Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, Ingo Bethke, Tarkan A. Bilge, Rémy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Kirsten L. Findell, Guillaume Gastineau, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, L. Ruby Leung, Juliette Mignot, Wolfgang A. Müller, Scott Osprey, Odd Helge Otterå, Geeta G. Persad, Adam A. Scaife, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hideo Shiogama, Rowan T. Sutton, Didier Swingedouw, Shuting Yang, Tianjun Zhou, Tilo Ziehn
      Abstract: Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
      PubDate: 2022-09-16T00:00:00Z
       
  • Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing
           climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use

    • Authors: Aline Anderson de Castro, Celso von Randow, Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow, Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra
      Abstract: Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasting future scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use change, especially over the Amazon.
      PubDate: 2022-09-16T00:00:00Z
       
  • Assessing the impact of the recent warming in the East China Sea on a
           torrential rain event in northern Kyushu (Japan) in early July 2017

    • Authors: Atsuyoshi Manda, Satoshi Iizuka, Hisashi Nakamura, Takafumi Miyasaka
      Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) in the East China Sea (ECS) has undergone a rapid rise in recent decades, but the associated impact on extreme weather remains under debate. Here, using a cloud-permitting model, we assess the impact of the ECS warming observed since the 1980s on a torrential rain event that caused devastating floods and landslides in the Kyushu Island, western Japan, in July 2017. Without the increasing trends of SST and air temperature, the model cannot reproduce the observed extremely high amount of precipitation during the event, i.e.,>700 mm/12-h. The SST increase is found more influential in determining the precipitation amount. Without the ocean warming, increases in precipitable water and horizontal moisture transport due to the atmospheric warming would not lead to precipitation increase during this event. The change in the amount of precipitation can be largely explained by the change in the updraft intensity of the convective system. Higher SST suppresses downward surface sensible heat flux and enhances upward latent heat flux along the paths of air parcels flowing into the convective system in this case. This increases the equivalent potential temperature in the lower troposphere, which enhances the convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere, leading to intensification of the convective system and thereby the increase of precipitation. The findings of this case study suggest an important role of the warming ECS in the intensification of torrential rain events around Japan and the necessity of further assessment of the role of the ocean warming in the torrential rains.
      PubDate: 2022-09-16T00:00:00Z
       
  • Enhancing climate services design and implementation through
           gender-responsive evaluation

    • Authors: Tatiana Gumucio, James Hansen, Edward R. Carr, Sophia Huyer, Brian Chiputwa, Elisabeth Simelton, Samuel Partey, Saroja Schwager
      Abstract: Assessing and responding to gender inequalities, and promoting women's empowerment, can be critical to achieving the goals of climate services, such as improved climate resilience, productivity, food security and livelihoods. To this end, our paper seeks to provide guidance to rural climate service researchers, implementing organizations, and funders on gender-responsive evaluation of climate services, including key questions to be asked and appropriate methodology. We draw on case studies of rural climate services in Mali, Rwanda and Southeast Asia to illustrate how gender-responsive evaluations have framed and attempted to answer questions about climate information needs, access to information and support through group processes, and contribution of climate services to empowerment. Evaluation of how group participatory processes can enable women's and men's demand for weather and climate information can help close knowledge gaps on gender equity in access to climate services. Quantitative methods can rigorously identify changes in demand associated with varying interventions, but qualitative approaches may be necessary to help assess the nuances of participatory communication processes. Furthermore, evaluation of how women's and men's information needs differ according to their roles and responsibilities in distinct climate-sensitive decisions can help assess gender inequities in climate services use. Evaluation that critically considers the local normative and institutional environment influencing empowerment can help identify pathways for climate services to contribute to women's empowerment. Qualitative and mixed method methodologies can be helpful for assessing the normative and institutional changes upon which empowerment depends. Although evaluations are often conducted too late to inform the design of time-bound projects, they can contribute to improvements to climate services if results are shared widely, if implementers and funders consistently factor evidence and insights from prior evaluations into the design of new initiatives, and if ongoing climate service initiatives conduct preliminary evaluations regularly to support mid-course adjustments.
      PubDate: 2022-09-16T00:00:00Z
       
  • The role of financial inclusion and FinTech in addressing climate-related
           

    • Authors: David Mhlanga
      Abstract: Individuals and enterprises have an increasing need for financial resources, which has led to the development of numerous financial instruments such as microfinance, insurance, and cash transfers, among other things. The number of development partners advocating for the use of these technologies to address disaster risks and climate change-related concerns is also increasing. With the rise in risk reduction needs and challenges associated with climate change, it's more important than ever to assess the effectiveness of various financial instruments (financial inclusion) in solving climate-related issues. The study used secondary data studied through document analysis to answer the question, what role does financial technology play in addressing the challenges or hazards associated with climate change in the Fourth Industrial Revolution' The results indicated that financial inclusion through FinTech could aid in the resilience of households, individuals, and companies in the case of a rapid climate event or the gradual effects of changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, or salter water incursion. Insurance, savings, credit, money transfers, and new digital distribution channels can all help victims of climate change and those in charge of dealing with the new environmental realities. As a result, the study advises that financial inclusion through FinTech be promoted as one of the channels that can aid in managing the risks of climate-related concerns and achieving sustainable development goals through development patterns, governments, and civil society.
      PubDate: 2022-09-15T00:00:00Z
       
  • On the seasonal prediction and predictability of winter surface
           Temperature Swing Index over North America

    • Authors: Xiaosong Yang, Thomas L. Delworth, Liwei Jia, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Feiyu Lu, Colleen McHugh
      Abstract: The rapid day-to-day temperature swings associated with extratropical storm tracks can cause cascading infrastructure failure and impact human outdoor activities, thus research on seasonal prediction and predictability of extreme temperature swings is of huge societal importance. To measure the extreme surface air temperature (SAT) variations associated with the winter extratropical storm tracks, a Temperature Swing Index (TSI) is formulated as the standard deviation of 24-h-difference-filtered data of the 6-hourly SAT. The dominant term governing the TSI variability is shown to be proportional to the product of eddy heat flux and mean temperature gradient. The seasonal prediction skill of the winter TSI over North America was assessed using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's new seasonal prediction system. The locations with skillful TSI prediction show a geographic pattern that is distinct from the pattern of skillful seasonal mean SAT prediction. The prediction of TSI provides additional predictable climate information beyond the traditional seasonal mean temperature prediction. The source of the seasonal TSI prediction can be attributed to year-to-year variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Over the central United States, the correlation skill of TSI prediction reaches 0.75 with strong links to observed ENSO, NPO, and PNA, while the skill of seasonal SAT prediction is relatively low with a correlation of 0.36. As a first attempt of diagnosing the combined predictability of the first-order (the seasonal mean) and second-order (TSI) statistics for SAT, this study highlights the importance of the eddy-mean flow interaction perspective for understanding the seasonal climate predictability in the extra tropics. These results point toward providing skillful prediction of higher-order statistical information related to winter temperature extremes, thus enriching the seasonal forecast products for the research community and decision makers.
      PubDate: 2022-09-14T00:00:00Z
       
  • Soil carbon stocks and nitrous oxide emissions of pasture systems in
           Orinoquía Region of Colombia: Potential for developing land-based
           greenhouse gas removal projects

    • Authors: Ciniro Costa Jr, Daniel Mauricio Villegas, Mike Bastidas, Natalia Matiz Rubio, Idupulapati Madhusudana Rao, Jacobo Arango
      Abstract: Improving grassland conditions under grazing has the potential not only to accumulate carbon in soils, but also to reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from animal urine deposition. However, measurements in developing countries are still scarce. In the Orinoquia region, degraded permanent grasslands (PG) based on unimproved grasses are found due to extensive, inefficient grazing combined with annual burning of pastures. We hypothesized that, compared to PG, improved grasslands (IG) managed through rotational grazing of introduced, productive and deep-rooted pasture grass species promote soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and reduce N2O emission from urine deposited by grazing cattle. We determined SOC and N2O emissions from urine deposited on soils in an area of PG and in a 6.5 year-old IG area of Urochloa (Syn. Brachiaria) humidicola grass pasture in a beef cattle ranch in Orinoquía region (Colombia). In both areas, we sampled soil for chemical/physical analysis, and measured N2O emissions by simulating urine deposition over 21 days. We applied two-way analysis of variance considering pasture type and soil depth as fixed factors. Estimated SOC stocks (0-100 cm) were in the range of 224.8 tCha-1 for the PG and 259.0 tCha-1 for the IG, with a significant (p
      PubDate: 2022-09-13T14:43:41Z
       
  • Country-specific challenges to improving effectiveness, scalability and
           sustainability of agricultural climate services in Africa

    • Authors: James W. Hansen, Lorna Born, Elliott R. Dossou-Yovo, Caroline Mwongera, Mustapha A. Dalaa, Osman Tahidu, Anthony M. Whitbread, Dawit Solomon, Robert Zougmore, Stephen E. Zebiak, Tufa Dinku, Amanda Grossi
      Abstract: Climate services are playing an increasing role in efforts to build the resilience of African agriculture to a variable and changing climate. Efforts to improve the contribution of climate services to agriculture must contend with substantial differences in national agricultural climate services landscapes. Context-specific factors influence the effectiveness, scalability and sustainability of agricultural climate service, but in ways that are challenging to anticipate. In the context of six countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Senegal, Zambia), this paper addresses the need to consider differing national contexts when developing strategies to make agricultural climate services in sub-Saharan Africa more effective, scalable and sustainable. Based on authors' collective firsthand knowledge and a review of information from secondary sources, we identify key strengths and weaknesses of climate services relative to agriculture sector needs in the focus countries; and assess factors that have contributed to those differences. Focus countries differ substantially in areas such as the degree of public support, alignment of services with agricultural needs, service delivery channels, degree of decentralization, and public—private-sector balance. These differences have been driven largely by differing national policies, delivery capacity and external actors, but not by responsiveness to agricultural sector demands. Building on the analyses of country differences and their drivers, we then discuss four key opportunities to further strengthen the contribution of climate services to agriculture: (a) leveraging farmer demand to drive scaling and sustainability; (b) exploiting digital innovation within a diverse delivery strategy; (c) balancing public and private sector comparative advantage; and (d) embedding climate services in agricultural extension. For each of these opportunities, we consider how different country contexts can impact the potential effectiveness, scalability and sustainability of services; and how efforts to strengthen those services can account for context-specific drivers to manage the tradeoffs among effectiveness, scalability and sustainability.
      PubDate: 2022-09-13T00:00:00Z
       
  • From research to practice: Adapting agriculture to climate today for
           tomorrow in Ethiopia

    • Authors: Amanda Grossi, Tufa Dinku
      Abstract: Eighty percent of the world's agriculture is rainfed, making it highly vulnerable to climate fluctuations and stresses, such as those brought about by climate variability and change. Sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia in particular have experienced a significant increase in climate variability over the past decade, which has led to more frequent weather extremes such as floods and droughts. Because 85% of Ethiopia depends upon agriculture for its livelihoods, such rainfall shortages or excesses can impede food production, access to financial and natural assets, and the ability to recover in subsequent crop seasons. This means that climate variability in agriculture not only affects the availability of the food Ethiopians consume, but also the income of its smallholder farmers. Variability in rainfall and temperature can also have adverse effects on livestock and the pastoralists whose livelihoods depend upon it. Thus, all development planning and practice in the agriculture and related sectors need to take climate variability and long-term climate change into account. Climate services can contribute to the alleviation of a range of climate-sensitive development challenges, including agricultural production and food security. The Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today for Tomorrow (ACToday) approach of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, USA, aims to develop climate service solutions through enhancement of the availability and effectiveness of climate information in national policy, planning, management, and other decision-making processes in countries that are particularly dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. It targets improved food security, nutrition, environmental sustainability and economic outcomes in these countries by promoting the use of climate information and services to manage current climate risks, while laying the foundation for adaptation to future climatic conditions. In this Perspective, we share experiences from the implementation of the ACToday project and approach in Ethiopia, outlining its accomplishments and challenges. In doing so, we characterize best practices and pitfalls to avoid to ensure climate knowledge and information truly meet the needs of climate-informed decision making and climate-smart policy and planning. We also outline pragmatic guidance to ensure activities designed to evolve climate research into services are done so appropriately, responsibly, and sustainably to bridge the gap between those who produce climate information and those who ultimately use it.
      PubDate: 2022-09-13T00:00:00Z
       
  • Editorial: Recent advances in agrometeorological analysis techniques for
           crop monitoring in support of food security early warning

    • Authors: Tamuka Magadzire, Andrew Hoell, Catherine Nakalembe, Mphethe Tongwane
      PubDate: 2022-09-09T00:00:00Z
       
 
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