 Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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- Settling insurance claims with cash or repair and housing market recovery
after an earthquake-
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Abstract: Abstract On the 22nd of February 2011, most houses in the city of Christchurch in New Zealand were damaged by an earthquake. Atypically for an earthquake, practically all were insured. We ask whether the way insurance claims were settled - in cash or through a managed repair program - was instrumental in mitigating the earthquake’s impact on the housing market. We use a genetic algorithm, which improves on a standard hedonic model, and identify the dynamics of the housing market in the city. We use four data sets: Housing market transactions, earthquake insurance claims paid by the public insurer, building consents issued by the local authority, and shake-maps measuring the intensity of the seismic shock. We find a negative correlation between insurance cash payouts and house prices after the earthquake, at the local level. We uncover evidence that suggests that the mechanism behind this result is that some damaged houses, for which claims were provided in cash, were not actually fixed. In contrast, damages that were actively repaired by the insurer did not lead to any relative deterioration in prices. This difference in the performance of the housing market post-disaster should be considered when insurers and their regulators decide how to settle claims in future disaster events.
PubDate: 2022-12-12
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00122-w
- Lobbying, Time Preferences and Emission Tax Policy
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Abstract: Abstract We develop a theoretical model to study the combined effect of lobbying and time preferences on emission tax policies. With a two-period model, we show that the influence of lobbying, by dirty industries and by environmental organizations, on the equilibrium tax decreases with the time horizon of the policymakers. An extension of the model to four periods shows that social welfare maximising policymakers may implement a tax higher than the marginal cost in the first period to speed up the transition to green technology. A policymaker influenced by lobby groups may, however, do the opposite, because future lobbying income will decrease if more firms invest in green technology. The results of this study indicate that countries with powerful lobby groups and a short-sighted policymaker are not likely to implement the optimal carbon tax. The influence of lobbying in combination with time preferences may explain some of the diversity in carbon taxes that we observe in practice. The results lead to the policy recommendation to combine carbon taxes with trade policies, which create an incentive for short-sighted governments to participate in carbon pricing policies.
PubDate: 2022-12-12
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00123-9
- Extreme Weather Events and Local Fiscal Responses: Evidence from U.S.
Counties-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the impacts of floods and hurricanes on U.S. county government finances. Using a novel event study model that allows for heterogeneous treatment effects, we find that a flood or hurricane presidential disaster declaration (PDD) lowers tax revenue but increases government spending and intergovernmental revenues. Compared to flooding, hurricanes result in much larger repercussions on both revenues and borrowing. Our results also suggest disparate patterns of disaster-induced long-run fiscal impacts in counties with different socioeconomic conditions. Counties with lower incomes or greater social vulnerability tend to experience tax revenue losses and engage in more borrowing after a PDD, whereas higher-income counties see increased tax revenues and spending and also receive more intergovernmental transfers than their poorer counterparts.
PubDate: 2022-12-01
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00120-y
- Public Investment in Hazard Mitigation: Effectiveness and the Role of
Community Diversity-
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Abstract: Abstract I estimate the loss-reducing effect of local public investments against natural hazards with new measures of damages, weather risk, and spending for a panel of 904 US coastal counties in 2000-2020. I distinguish federally- and county-funded projects and rely on a quasi-experimental strategy, matching counties by economic development, population, and weather risk. Risk predictions come from the Random Forest learning algorithm, using granular data on resident vulnerability and severe weather frequency. Public spending on adaptation is effective – the average high-spending county avoids a significant portion of losses – and efficient – $1 prevents up to $3 in losses over 20 years. The evidence suggests that federal spending is focused on high-risk areas, while local spending is effectively implemented in medium-risk counties. Finally, I show that fractionalization among residents about the priority of climate-change policy can be a limiting factor in adaptation spending. Total spending is significantly lower in areas with high diversity in policy preferences, and more so when opinions are equally split.
PubDate: 2022-11-18
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00119-5
- The Relation Between Socioeconomic Status and Risk Attitudes: A Nuclear
Accident Scenario in Sweden-
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Abstract: Abstract Nuclear power plant (NPP) disasters are complex and dreaded scenarios. However, existing recovery plans presuppose that citizens will return to live in decontaminated areas following evacuation. Research on natural disasters has shown that high socioeconomic status (SES) influences people to continue living in their homes in recovery areas. This study examines the association between SES and citizens’ risk attitudes to a radiological emergency scenario and demonstrates instead that high SES implies a greater likeliness to move away from the accident-affected area. This is substantiated by survey data of Swedish citizens’ (N = 2,291) attitudes to a scenario where an NPP accident, evacuation, and remediation occur. More specifically, the study provides statistically significant results to show that high income is associated with less worry over ionizing radiation. Still, high-income individuals also appear to be more likely to move if their neighborhood is affected by radioactive fallout than low-income individuals. Moreover, the results for education show that low education is associated with remaining in the decontamination area, and the relation between education and worry over ionizing radiation provides some support for assumptions about the “anxious middle.” Overall, this study finds that decontamination is complicated by a majority of people preferring permanent relocation as well as by indications that more resourceful citizens are generally more likely to leave the area permanently, which may impede the fulfillment of state agencies’ plans for recovery.
PubDate: 2022-08-01
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00118-6
- Flood Protection and Land Value Creation – Not all Resilience
Investments Are Created Equal-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the land value creation potential from flood mitigation investments in a theoretical and applied setting, using the urban area of Buenos Aires as a case study. It contributes to the literature on the wider economic benefits of government interventions and the dividends of resilience investments. Using a simple urban economics framework that represents land and housing markets, it finds that not all flood mitigation interventions display the same potential for land value creation: where land is more valuable (city centers for example), the benefits of resilience are higher. The paper also provides ranges for land value creation potential from the flood mitigation works in Buenos Aires under various model specifications. Although the estimates vary largely depending on model parameters and specifications, in many cases the land value creation would be sufficient to justify the investments. This result is robust even in the closed city configuration with conservative flood damage estimates, providing that the parameters remain reasonably close to the values obtained from the calibration. Finally, acknowledging that fully calibrating and running an urban simulation model is data greedy and time intensive – even a simple model as proposed here – this research also proposes reduced form expressions that can provide approximations for land value creation from flood mitigation investments and can be used in operational contexts.
PubDate: 2022-07-14
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00117-7
- Weather Shocks, Population, and Housing Prices: the Role of Expectation
Revisions-
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Abstract: Abstract I provide new evidence about the information content of weather shocks in the US coastal states, based on substantial hurricane impacts, with a quasi-experimental research design that matches counties by risk, size, and income. I examine if hurricanes represent “new news” in counties with no prior hurricanes and if expectations updating is reflected in population and house price growth. I develop a measure reflecting homeowners’ flood risk expectation based on flood insurance deductible data, which assumes that higher deductibles reveal lower flood expectations. I find that population growth declines more in counties without previous hurricanes and that this is driven by areas with lower flood-risk priors, consistent with updating when the hurricane is more likely to be “new news”. This is supported by within-county evidence that directly controls for hurricane losses and residents’ priors. I find that information updating actually increases house price growth in impacted counties with no previous hurricanes.
PubDate: 2022-06-13
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00116-8
- Insuring Well-Being: Psychological Adaptation to Disasters
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Abstract: Abstract We examine the impact of life and health insurance spending on subjective well-being. Taking advantage of insurance spending and subjective well-being data on more than 700,000 individuals in Japan, we examine whether insurance spending can buffer declines in subjective well-being due to exposure to mass disaster. We find that insurance spending can buffer drops in subjective well-being by approximately 3–6% among those who experienced the mass disaster of the great East Japan earthquake. Subjective health increases the most, followed by life satisfaction and happiness. On the other hand, insurance spending decreases the subjective well-being of those who did not experience the earthquake by approximately 3–7%. We conclude by monetizing the subjective well-being loss and calculating the extent to which insurance spending can compensate for it. The monetary value of subjective well-being buffered through insurance spending is approximately 33,128 USD for happiness, 33,287 USD for life satisfaction, and 19,597 USD for subjective health for a person in one year. Therefore, we confirm that life/health insurance serves as an ideal option for disaster adaptation. Our findings indicate the importance of considering subjective well-being, which is often neglected when assessing disaster losses.
PubDate: 2022-06-03
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00114-w
- Economic Impact Payments and Household Food Insufficiency during COVID-19:
The Case of Late Recipients-
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Abstract: Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government distributed Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) to ease the economic hardships of American households. Using the Household Pulse Survey, we study the association of first-round EIPs with household-level food insufficiency in a sample of late recipients of EIPs. Studying the late recipients is important for two reasons, first, about 12 million eligible individuals did not automatically receive EIPs, and second, the late receipt of EIPs and the low-income status of late recipients allow us to tease out the relationship between EIPs and food insufficiency. We find that EIPs were associated with a 9.2 percentage points decrease in the likelihood of food insufficiency. However, households kept relying on free food acquisition to fight food hardship. Our results suggest that government efforts to provide more timely stimulus payments could be very impactful and significantly impact household food insufficiency.
PubDate: 2022-05-30
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00115-9
- Correction to: Quantitative Evaluation of Flood Control Measures and
Educational Support to Reduce Disaster Vulnerability of the Poor Based on
Household‑level Savings Estimates-
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PubDate: 2022-05-12
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00113-x
- Fiscal Transfers, Natural Calamities and Partisan Politics: Evidence from
India-
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Abstract: Abstract Do some sub-national governments receive higher transfers from the Central government than others' Which channels exist for the Central government to practice partisan politics' Taking note of the significant gap between the relief sought by the states in the context of natural calamities such as drought and the assistance given by the Centre, the present study attempts to contribute to the vast literature on fiscal transfers from the Centre to different states in India with particular focus on partisan politics. The empirical analysis based on total and non-plan fiscal grants from the Centre to different states and an index of drought over the past three decades suggests that grant allocation in response to drought is higher for the politically aligned states. Compared to the aligned states the non-aligned states received lower total grants in a non-drought year. Further, if an average intensity drought were to occur, marginal grant allocation in response to drought for the non-aligned states vis-à-vis the aligned states was upto ~9% (~16%) lower for total (non-plan) grants. The results also show that the extent of favouritism exhibited by the Centre differs between states ruled by same political party and those ruled by parties extending outside support to the Central government. Over time favouritism in grant allocation in general has become apparent, while drought as a channel through which such favouritism manifested earlier has become less important in the later years. This study presents an important link in the broader literature on political economy of disaster management.
PubDate: 2022-05-08
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00111-z
- Quantitative Evaluation of Flood Control Measures and Educational Support
to Reduce Disaster Vulnerability of the Poor Based on Household-level
Savings Estimates-
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Abstract: Abstract In developing countries, where budget constraints make it difficult to invest in disaster risk reduction, disasters worsen the poverty trap. To alleviate poverty by reducing the risk of disasters, not only the immediate direct impacts of disasters but also their long-term and indirect impacts should be considered. However, since the effects of individual policies are often evaluated based on the extent of damage reduction, the impact on the poor, who have few assets and thus small losses, is generally ignored. Here, we aimed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of flood control measures and educational support in terms of the flood vulnerability of the poor at the household level. We constructed a model to calculate the savings of individual households and used the flood damage-to-savings ratio to determine their flood vulnerability. Next, we estimated the extent to which the flood vulnerability is reduced by various policies. We found that educational support is suitable for reducing the flood vulnerability of the poor cost-effectively, especially when the budgets are small. Gini coefficient predictions confirmed that educational support is effective in reducing income inequality. The novelty of this study is that it quantitatively links flood damage, savings, and education, which are factors that affect the flood vulnerability of the poor, and it compares the effects of various flood control measures and educational support at the household level in terms of the flood vulnerability. While the model was developed using household survey data from Bago, Myanmar, the framework should be applicable to other regions as well.
PubDate: 2022-04-26
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00112-y
- Bird’s Eye View of COVID-19, Mobility, and Labor Market Outcomes
Across the US-
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Abstract: Abstract COVID-19 dealt a formidable blow to the US economy. We present a joint analysis of the epidemiological and labor market outcomes across US states. We focus on the relationship across relevant indicators in the pre-vaccination era. As expected, we find strong correlation between changes in economic conditions and mobility. However, mobility fluctuations tend to be uncorrelated with local epidemics and occur simultaneously across most states. The magnitude of the mobility response is highly correlated with the rural vs. urban character of the area. Employment losses are most strongly associated with high population density and concentration of the leisure and hospitality industry. The relationship between job losses and the case fatality ratio is affected by the timing of the most severe COVID-19 waves.
PubDate: 2022-04-08
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00110-0
- Behavioral Economic Consequences of Disasters: A Basis for Inclusion in
Benefit–Cost Analysis-
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Abstract: Abstract The purpose of this paper is to develop an analytical framework for estimating the behavioral effects of disasters and their economic consequences. The reduction of these losses represents the benefits of pre-disaster mitigation and post-disaster recovery. We provide conceptualizations, definitions, classifications, and a formal welfare analysis of this category of economic consequences. We also examine methods used to measure behavioral reactions to fear for insight into improving their delineation. Because we are interested in a comprehensive assessment of behavioral effects, we also include resilience adjustments and extend our initial partial equilibrium analysis to the general equilibrium level. The analysis is intended to serve as the basis for the legitimate inclusion of behavioral consequences of disasters in benefit-cost analysis.
PubDate: 2022-03-26
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00107-9
- Risk Attitudes to Catastrophic Events: VSL and WTP for Insurance Against
Earthquakes-
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Abstract: Abstract The purpose of the paper is to investigate the attitude to risk related to low-probability, high-impact events. To do this, we compare the willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce mortality risks and the WTP for life insurance against earthquakes. We explore whether risk perception affects these measures, and exploit WTP to reduce risk of fatality to calculate the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) related to seismic events. We rely on data from a survey administered to a representative sample of the Italian population. Our results highlight that the WTP to reduce mortality risk is lower than the WTP for life insurance, and that the correlations between risk perception and these two measures differ. The findings suggest that individuals’ preferences are directed toward risk management strategies in which the mortality risk is transferred to the capital market, rather than risk mitigation strategies involving the individual in sharing the costs and benefits with all of society.
PubDate: 2022-03-25
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00109-7
- Taxes Versus Tradable Permits Considering Public Environmental Awareness
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Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the relative performance of taxes and tradable permits when public environmental awareness is taken into account in policy-making. Two sovereign regions linked by a transboundary pollutant are considered. We show when public environmental awareness in one region increases, domestic government tightens its policy setting. While for foreign government, its response is different in these two polices. Under taxes, foreign government relaxes tax rate to get a free ride; under tradable permits, it may also tighten permit supply to benefit more from the international tradable permit market. But anyway, total pollution emissions are reduced. Moreover, when public environmental awareness in one region is sufficiently large, tradable permits welfare dominates taxes. However, public environmental awareness is bounded in reality. So, we further narrow its range to match reality. It is shown for the case of global externalities, tradable permits policy is superior. While for the case of reciprocal externalities, taxes policy is superior when pollution spillover is relatively low. And with the rise of public environmental awareness, the advantage of taxes is further strengthened.
PubDate: 2022-03-08
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00108-8
- Immediate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on household economic
activities and food security in Tajikistan-
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Abstract: Abstract Using a nationally representative monthly survey, administered both before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper provides estimates of household responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in Tajikistan, focusing on (i) short-term dynamic impacts on household economic outcomes and food security, (ii) heterogenous effects across different households, and (iii) coping with income shocks resulted from the pandemic. Parametric and non-parametric event studies are estimated to quantify the short-run dynamic impacts of the pandemic on household activities. The findings show that household employment and income dropped, and food insecurity immediately worsened with the first confirmed COVID-19 cases and continues to deteriorate six months into the pandemic in Tajikistan. The extent of the impacts varies depending on locations, pre-pandemic income levels, and household sizes. In response to the income shock brought about by the pandemic, households increased borrowings and reduced food and health expenditures. These results are robust to different specifications.
PubDate: 2022-01-17
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-021-00104-4
- Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse' Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes,
Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence-
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Abstract: Abstract If economists have largely failed to predict or prevent the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the more disastrous economic collapse associated with the pandemic of 2020, what else is the profession missing' This is the question that motivates this survey. Specifically, we want to highlight four catastrophic risks – i.e., risks that can potentially result in global catastrophes of a much larger magnitude than either of the 2008 or 2020 events. The four risks we examine here are: Space weather and solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, high-mortality pandemics, and misaligned artificial intelligence. All four have a non-trivial probability of occurring and all four can lead to a catastrophe, possibly not very different from human extinction. Inevitably, and fortunately, these catastrophic events have not yet occurred, so the literature investigating them is by necessity more speculative and less grounded in empirical observations. Nevertheless, that does not make these risks any less real. This survey is motivated by the belief that economists can and should be thinking about these risks more systematically, so that we can devise the appropriate ways to prevent them or ameliorate their potential impacts.
PubDate: 2022-01-15
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00105-x
- Variations in Early-Stage Responses to Pandemics: Survey Evidence from the
COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan-
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Abstract: Abstract During the initial phase of pandemics, swift behavioral responses by individuals, such as social distancing, can temper the speed and magnitude of further infections. However, individual choices in this period are often made in the absence of reliable knowledge and coordinated policy interventions, producing variation in protective behaviors that cannot be easily deduced from that in later periods. Using unique monthly panel survey data, we examine variations in the association between changes in infections and risky behavior, particularly the frequencies of face-to-face conversations and dining out, between January to March 2020. We find that the increase in confirmed cases is negatively associated with the likelihood of these behaviors. However, high school graduates are less responsive than university graduates. We provide evidence that this can be attributed to their lower perception of infection risk, while we cannot fully rule out the roles of income opportunity costs. These results point to the benefits of interventions incorporating nudges to raise individuals’ risk perceptions during the initial phase of pandemics. We also discuss the potential efficacy of such interventions in later periods of pandemics.
PubDate: 2021-11-29
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-021-00103-5
- Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter'
Evidence for the US-
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Abstract: Abstract Global climate is changing, and the occurrence of climate disasters has been rising. There is growing concern that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of weather events. Yet, the consequential effects of disasters and the ensuing implications of policymakers’ responses remain unclear. While the majority of research on climate change is ex ante, this paper explores the ex post transmission of disaster damages on economic conditions. In doing so may offer a glimpse of key, future policy options around how a disaster shock influences economic conditions, not only with regards to how a disaster affects output, as in the existing research, but also to aid policy makers and the public to further understand the influences on inflation, interest rate and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using a multivariate regression, we find that the impact of a natural disaster on EPU is positive and statistically significant during an expansionary phase while controlling for other determinants. Using a non-linear VAR model with local projections (LP), the aftermath of a disaster is estimated to marginally decrease output and increase inflation during an expansionary state. Accordingly, the empirical findings suggest the interest rate set by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) remains relatively unchanged to a disaster shock, which is operating in a manner that is proportional to the magnitude of change in output and inflation. Consistent with the multivariate regression model, the VAR-LP demonstrates that the impact of a natural disaster magnifies the increase in EPU during periods of economic expansion.
PubDate: 2021-11-11
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-021-00102-6
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