 Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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- What Do We Know About Drought, Household Consumption and Seasonality:
Evidence Review from Sub-Saharan Africa-
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Abstract: Abstract There is little discussion, let alone systemic evidence, on how droughts affect seasonal/intra-annual consumption within a drought year and subsequent years. This paper reviews the evidence on whether households can smooth food and non-food consumption and how factors constraining consumption smoothing are experienced in the context of drought, focusing primarily on empirical evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Households are unable to smooth consumption for various reasons including income seasonality, imperfect credit markets, incomplete insurance, storage constraints, and liquidity constraints. They reduce non-food consumption to partly smooth food consumption during lean season, and there is an overwhelming amount of evidence that households reduce food consumption to cope with drought. Droughts not only exacerbate seasonality in income and price through crop losses and changes in prices and wages, which are triggered by the initial losses, but also extend the lean season. Access to formal or informal credit markets is further constrained for covariate shocks such as drought. This paper recommends further research into the following areas: i) What is the timing of any reduction in food and non-food consumption in response to drought' ii) How do the patterns and timing of consumption reduction vary by household' What are the characteristics that that make some households more vulnerable to drought' iii) Which type of households can afford to smooth consumption by destabilising assets instead of dangerously reducing consumption and smoothing assets' iv) Does access to internet and telecommunications reduce the incompleteness of informal insurance by facilitating information sharing and reducing transaction costs. The empirics of understanding drought's effects on seasonal consumption are limited by costly and infrequent data. “Big data” and “modern methods of data collection” could be explored and leveraged-either on their own or linked with traditional surveys- to obtain more frequent and disaggregated observations of household consumption.
PubDate: 2023-09-14
- The Divergent Effects of Remittance Transfers for Post-Disaster States
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Abstract: Abstract This paper asks how remittances flows, the value of which has increased substantially in the last 20 years, moderate disruptions in state capacity generated by rapid-onset natural disasters. Focusing specifically on earthquakes, we consider how remittances affect social welfare and unrest. We propose two causal pathways that reflect the complex effects both natural disasters and remittances have on states and societies. First, we argue that remittances can mitigate political instability by smoothing disruptions in individual consumption, which are most salient during times when states are struggling to supply public goods, as in the aftermath of natural disasters. Second, we argue that remittance flows can supply financial resources that empower dissident groups to mobilize protests and other anti-state action. Although these pathways appear conflicting, we contend that they stem from the same causal mechanism—income smoothing—which is an important refinement in existing research that reports contradictory findings. Our results are supportive of our theoretical argument and show that remittances can paradoxically improve social welfare while also heightening the conditions for social unrest.
PubDate: 2023-08-12
- Does Green Infrastructure Work' Precipitation, Protected Areas, Floods
and Landslides-
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Abstract: Abstract We evaluate whether floods and landslides are more likely when rain falls inside versus outside protected areas (PAs). We use monthly municipality data for the period 2000–2015 in Guatemala and monthly district data for the period 1992–2019 in Costa Rica. We define relevant catchment areas using water flows to the population centers of the administrative units. Then, we calculate the precipitation inside and outside PAs within the relevant catchment areas, and test how the frequency of floods and landslides is affected by whether rain falls inside or outside PAs. We use a two-way fixed-effects panel data model. For Guatemala, we find no robust statistically significant effects on these types of disasters. However, in Costa Rica, we find that shifts in precipitation towards PAs significantly reduce floods. These results are highly robust. We also find effects on landslides in densely populated districts as well as reductions in flood-related deaths.
PubDate: 2023-08-10
- Do Sovereign Catastrophe Bonds Improve Fiscal Resilience' An Application
of Synthetic Control Method to Mexico-
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Abstract: Abstract Natural disasters exert a significant impact on government finances. Catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) constitute risk-transfer instruments that could help governments improve their fiscal resilience when catastrophic events occur. However, given the very limited issuance of sovereign CAT bonds so far, their actual impact on fiscal resilience is difficult to quantify. There is no literature on this topic currently available. I attempt to fill this gap and assess the impact of CAT bond payouts on the fiscal balance of the Mexican government using the synthetic control method. As an early adopter and repeated issuer of sovereign CAT bonds since 2006, Mexico received its first CAT bond payout in 2017. The payout was triggered by a high-magnitude earthquake that stroke the country in September 2017, with an estimated impact of 0.24% of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP). I identify 12 countries that experienced natural disasters with a similar impact on GDP in 2017, but which unlike Mexico have not received a CAT bond payout that year. I then compare post-2017 fiscal balances for Mexico with a synthetic control unit that combines the characteristics of the 12 similar but untreated countries, while controlling for other factors that could have had an impact on this fiscal variable. I find a positive and statistically significant impact of the 2017 CAT bond payout on Mexico’s fiscal balance compared to its synthetic control unit. A series of placebo studies and robustness tests confirm the validity of these findings.
PubDate: 2023-07-31
- Residential Electricity Consumption and Adaptation to Climate Change by
Colombian Households-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper provides the first empirical estimates of the relationship between temperatures and household electricity consumption in Colombia, using electricity billing and weather data from 2010 to 2019. I find that higher temperatures (or higher values of the heat index) increase electricity consumption, with the largest effects observed for high-income households in regions with hot climates. However, I show that there has been partial convergence between low- and high-income households, with the effect of temperature on electricity consumption in lower-income neighborhoods more than doubling between 2011 and 2019. These results align with survey evidence of increased air conditioning adoption. Nevertheless, further growth in air conditioning adoption and use is required to alleviate the health effects of more frequent and severe heatwaves due to climate change.
PubDate: 2023-07-22
- Vulnerability and Resilience to Drought and Saltwater Intrusion of Rice
Farming Households in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam-
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Abstract: Abstract Adverse impacts of climate and environmental hazards are unevenly distributed between socioeconomic groups due to differences in exposure, vulnerability and resilience. This study examines the distribution of vulnerability and resilience to drought and salt intrusion impacts among rice farmers in the rural Mekong Delta in Vietnam. By defining both aspects independently, we can study potential differences in the socio-economic factors that steer them and analyse how these two aspects of adaptive capacity are related. Using fixed-effect regressions, we find that poorer communes are more vulnerable to direct environmental impacts (loss in rice yield). Several household characteristics that reflect a low socioeconomic status, such as low asset values, small plots, and limited education level, are linked with higher vulnerability to direct drought impacts. High vulnerability does, however, not necessarily translate to low resilience, which we proxy by measuring indirect impacts (loss in household income). Several household activities and characteristics help mitigate indirect impacts. Our results suggest that the least resilient household group consists of smallholder, asset-low households that are unable to diversify to non-crop agriculture or off-farm employment. Supportive policies targeting this particular socioeconomic group to enable transition to non-crop or off-farm labour would substantially improve their resilience to future environmental events. Distinguishing between resilience and vulnerability enables a broader understanding of the mechanisms influencing the distribution of direct and indirect adverse impacts, which enables drafting targeted policy measures for specific socioeconomic groups.
PubDate: 2023-06-23
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00133-1
- Disasters and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: An
Introduction to the Special Issue-
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Abstract: Abstract This introduction seeks to provide context for the papers included in this special issue by drawing on the broader literature. Salient development challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, which can be aggravated by climate change, are low economic growth, high poverty and inequality, and fiscal vulnerabilities. This paper summarizes some of the evidence on the economic implications of climate change with an emphasis on the evidence pertaining to Latin America and the Caribbean; and how the research papers included in this special issue provide answers for some of the relevant and remaining questions about this topic.
PubDate: 2023-06-05
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00132-2
- Weather Disasters, Material Losses and Income Inequality: Evidence from a
Tropical, Middle-Income Country-
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Abstract: Abstract The origins of inequality are as old as human history. This persistent phenomenon has attracted the attention of scholars and policymakers due to its repercussions for social and economic outcomes in society. However, despite national and international efforts, inequality is still prevalent within and across countries worldwide. Although many studies and debates have vastly addressed the causes of inequality, little has been said about the relationship between human and material losses and inequality and poverty. This relationship is important to understand since climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of weather disasters in the near future. In this paper, I identify the effect of weather disasters on income inequality considering the case of Ecuador, a disaster-prone, unequal country. I construct a panel of provinces, municipalities and districts, including information to calculate the Gini coefficient and records of weather events in the country from 2007 to 2017. My findings suggest that weather disasters persistently affect income inequality, especially when disasters are measured in terms of damages to roads, public infrastructure and productive assets. Interestingly, human losses (i.e., the number of fatalities and injured people) and damages to productive assets show no effect on inequality levels. The results suggest the importance of disaster-resilient infrastructure as a mechanism to reduce the impacts of climate change on individual wellbeing and living conditions.
PubDate: 2023-06-03
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00129-x
- Droughts and Local Labor Markets. Studying Heterogenous Effects on Women
and Indigenous People in Chile-
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Abstract: Abstract Climate change is a pressing issue, affecting the lives of all people across the world. However, poorer and excluded communities are usually more affected, especially in low-income countries. Among them, women but particularly indigenous groups in rural areas seem to carry the bulk of the impacts produced by climate change and its many manifestations. We study the relationship between droughts and incomes and labor market outcomes in Chile over the period 1990–2017, focusing in particular on indigenous women. Our results show that overall indigenous women are the group most severely affected by droughts, decreasing their income, their probability of working in agriculture, and increasing their likelihood of working as an unpaid family worker or being out of the labor force. Results are robust to the use of different variables to measure droughts and to different econometric specifications. Our study corroborates the existence of marked heterogenous effects of climate change on different population groups and the vulnerability of indigenous communities to these shocks.
PubDate: 2023-06-02
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00130-4
- An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Implications on
Bonaire-
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Abstract: Abstract Bonaire’s topographic and geographic characteristics, in combination with the island’s high dependency on economic sectors that are susceptible to the impacts of climate change, make this Caribbean island particularly vulnerable to climatic changes. In this study, biophysical and economic models are combined and complemented with stakeholder consultation to assess and quantify environmental effects and associated socio-economic impacts of climate change on Bonaire. We apply three climate scenarios of the 2021 IPCC report (SSP1-2.6, 2–4.5, and 5–8.5) and combine them with local conditions to conduct a site-specific integrated assessment. The results show that various buildings, critical infrastructure, and identified tangible cultural heritage, especially at the south of Bonaire, are at risk of climate change induced coastal inundation by 2050, even under the least severe climate projection. In addition, the overall health of coral reefs declines under the climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 due to sea level rise, acidification, and increasing temperatures. In the most pessimistic scenario, Bonaire could experience a reduction in dive tourist arrivals of 118,000, which can lead to an economic contraction of 174 USDm (25%) in Bonaire’s GDP. In the absence of timely planning and implementation of adaptation measures, the impacts of climate change may have serious implications for inhabitants’ lifestyles and wellbeing. These results are imperative for various stakeholders, and stress that decision-makers should focus on the development and implementation of effective and feasible adaptation strategies urgently. Moreover, future researchers confronted with data scarcity in comparable contexts can utilise the novel methodologies employed in this study.
PubDate: 2023-05-29
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00127-z
- The Impact of Tropical Storms on International Trade: Evidence from
Eastern Caribbean Small Island Developing States-
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Abstract: Abstract Eastern Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have a high dependence on international trade for income, employment, and poverty reduction given their extreme openness, small market size, narrow range of resources, and productive capabilities and specialized economic structures. These features make them vulnerable to external shocks, the most frequent being tropical storms. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of tropical storms on international trade for 8 Eastern Caribbean SIDS over the period 2000–2019, as well as the mediating role of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The paper uses panel regression techniques along with mediation analysis applied to monthly export, import, and exchange rate data taken from the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank combined with a measure of hurricane destruction that accounts for ex-ante economic exposure to damage. The results indicate that hurricanes reduce exports of goods by 20 percent in the month of a strike and up to three months thereafter. The impact on imports is more immediate and less severe, reducing imports of goods by 11 per cent only in the month of a strike. The mediation analysis suggests that the REER plays no mediation role in explaining the impact of tropical storm damage on exports and imports in the region.
PubDate: 2023-05-15
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00128-y
- Differential Fiscal Performances of Plausible Disaster Events: A Storyline
Approach for the Caribbean and Central American Governments under CCRIF-
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Abstract: Abstract Fiscal resilience against disasters is vital for the recovery in the aftermath of climate hazards. Without swift access to available funds for disaster relief, damages to human and the economy would be further exacerbated. How insurance may influence fiscal performance over time and can increase fiscal resilience for today and under a future climate has not been looked at yet in detail. Focusing on the Caribbean region and on the fiscal performance of governments after disaster events, we empirically analyze the effectiveness of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) regarding the reduction of short-term fiscal effects. We embed this analysis within a novel climate impact storyline approach where we produce past plausible events and investigate the usefulness of insurance under such events. The storylines were modified according to global and climate change related boundary conditions to address the issue whether the CCRIF is fit for purpose or will need to be adapted in the future. We found that both hurricane strikes and the CCRIF affect fiscal outcomes of Caribbean countries. Furthermore, there are indications that CCRIF can counteract the negative fiscal consequences over the short term period induced by the disaster. Our analysis should shed some light on the current discussions on how development related assistance can be structured to enhance climate resilience in highly exposed countries for both direct and fiscal impacts of disasters.
PubDate: 2023-05-11
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00126-0
- International Evidence on Vaccines and the Mortality to Infections Ratio
in the Pre-Omicron Era-
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Abstract: Abstract Prior to the appearance of the Omicron variant, observations on countries like the UK that have accumulated a large fraction of inoculated individuals suggest that, although initially, vaccines have little effect on new infections, they strongly reduce the share of mortality out of a given pool of infections. This paper examines the extent to which this phenomenon is more general by testing the hypothesis that the ratio of lagged mortality to current infections is decreasing in the total number of vaccines per one hundred individuals in the pre-Omicron period, in a pooled time-series, cross-section sample with weekly observations for up to 208 countries. The main finding is that vaccines moderate the share of mortality from a given pool of lagged infections at sufficiently high levels of vaccination rates, which is essentially a favorable shift in the tradeoff between life preservation and economic performance. The practical lesson is that, in the presence of a sufficiently high share of inoculated individuals, governments can shade down containment measures, even as infections are still rampant, without significant adverse effects on mortality.
PubDate: 2023-04-06
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00125-1
- Losses from Fluvial Floods in Poland over the 21st Century – Estimation
Using the Productivity Costs Method-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper aims at the estimation of the impact of climate change on future losses caused by fluvial floods in Poland over the twenty-first century at the local level with the productivity costs valuation method. The daily data on river discharges published by (Piniewski et al., Hydrol Process 31:2210–2225, 2017), map of flood risk and value added generated in each county are used to estimate of the impact of climate change on the fluvial flood damage at the county level. This study supplements the findings of (Koks et al., Environ Res Lett 14:084042, 2019), (Alfieri et al., Clim Change 136:507–521, 2016) and (Feyen et al., Clim Change 112:47–62, 2012) with estimates of future flood losses in Poland using the productivity costs valuation that considers also the costs of disruptions of production chains and lost production at the finer level of spatial disaggregation. This method shows the overall increase in losses caused by fluvial floods in Poland due to climate change in comparison to the reference period of 1974–2000 by 47% in RCP4.5 and 83% in RCP8.5 scenario in 2024–2050 and by 32% in RCP4.5 and 51% in the RCP8.5 in 2074–2100.
PubDate: 2023-04-04
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00124-2
- Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures
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Abstract: Abstract This paper argues that the type of COVID-19 containment measures affects the trade-offs between infection cases, economic activity and sovereign risk. Using local projection methods and a year and a half of high-frequency daily data covering 44 advanced and emerging economies, we find that smart (e.g. testing) as opposed to physical (e.g. lockdown) measures appear to be best placed to tackle these trade-offs. Initial conditions also matter whereby containment measures can be less disruptive when public health response time is fast and public debt is low. We also construct a database of daily fiscal announcements for Euro area countries, and find that sovereign risk is improved under a combination of large support packages and smart measures.
PubDate: 2023-04-04
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00121-x
- Settling insurance claims with cash or repair and housing market recovery
after an earthquake-
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Abstract: Abstract On the 22nd of February 2011, most houses in the city of Christchurch in New Zealand were damaged by an earthquake. Atypically for an earthquake, practically all were insured. We ask whether the way insurance claims were settled - in cash or through a managed repair program - was instrumental in mitigating the earthquake’s impact on the housing market. We use a genetic algorithm, which improves on a standard hedonic model, and identify the dynamics of the housing market in the city. We use four data sets: Housing market transactions, earthquake insurance claims paid by the public insurer, building consents issued by the local authority, and shake-maps measuring the intensity of the seismic shock. We find a negative correlation between insurance cash payouts and house prices after the earthquake, at the local level. We uncover evidence that suggests that the mechanism behind this result is that some damaged houses, for which claims were provided in cash, were not actually fixed. In contrast, damages that were actively repaired by the insurer did not lead to any relative deterioration in prices. This difference in the performance of the housing market post-disaster should be considered when insurers and their regulators decide how to settle claims in future disaster events.
PubDate: 2022-12-12
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00122-w
- Lobbying, Time Preferences and Emission Tax Policy
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Abstract: Abstract We develop a theoretical model to study the combined effect of lobbying and time preferences on emission tax policies. With a two-period model, we show that the influence of lobbying, by dirty industries and by environmental organizations, on the equilibrium tax decreases with the time horizon of the policymakers. An extension of the model to four periods shows that social welfare maximising policymakers may implement a tax higher than the marginal cost in the first period to speed up the transition to green technology. A policymaker influenced by lobby groups may, however, do the opposite, because future lobbying income will decrease if more firms invest in green technology. The results of this study indicate that countries with powerful lobby groups and a short-sighted policymaker are not likely to implement the optimal carbon tax. The influence of lobbying in combination with time preferences may explain some of the diversity in carbon taxes that we observe in practice. The results lead to the policy recommendation to combine carbon taxes with trade policies, which create an incentive for short-sighted governments to participate in carbon pricing policies.
PubDate: 2022-12-12
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00123-9
- Extreme Weather Events and Local Fiscal Responses: Evidence from U.S.
Counties-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the impacts of floods and hurricanes on U.S. county government finances. Using a novel event study model that allows for heterogeneous treatment effects, we find that a flood or hurricane presidential disaster declaration (PDD) lowers tax revenue but increases government spending and intergovernmental revenues. Compared to flooding, hurricanes result in much larger repercussions on both revenues and borrowing. Our results also suggest disparate patterns of disaster-induced long-run fiscal impacts in counties with different socioeconomic conditions. Counties with lower incomes or greater social vulnerability tend to experience tax revenue losses and engage in more borrowing after a PDD, whereas higher-income counties see increased tax revenues and spending and also receive more intergovernmental transfers than their poorer counterparts.
PubDate: 2022-12-01
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00120-y
- Public Investment in Hazard Mitigation: Effectiveness and the Role of
Community Diversity-
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Abstract: Abstract I estimate the loss-reducing effect of local public investments against natural hazards with new measures of damages, weather risk, and spending for a panel of 904 US coastal counties in 2000-2020. I distinguish federally- and county-funded projects and rely on a quasi-experimental strategy, matching counties by economic development, population, and weather risk. Risk predictions come from the Random Forest learning algorithm, using granular data on resident vulnerability and severe weather frequency. Public spending on adaptation is effective – the average high-spending county avoids a significant portion of losses – and efficient – $1 prevents up to $3 in losses over 20 years. The evidence suggests that federal spending is focused on high-risk areas, while local spending is effectively implemented in medium-risk counties. Finally, I show that fractionalization among residents about the priority of climate-change policy can be a limiting factor in adaptation spending. Total spending is significantly lower in areas with high diversity in policy preferences, and more so when opinions are equally split.
PubDate: 2022-11-18
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00119-5
- Flood Protection and Land Value Creation – Not all Resilience
Investments Are Created Equal-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the land value creation potential from flood mitigation investments in a theoretical and applied setting, using the urban area of Buenos Aires as a case study. It contributes to the literature on the wider economic benefits of government interventions and the dividends of resilience investments. Using a simple urban economics framework that represents land and housing markets, it finds that not all flood mitigation interventions display the same potential for land value creation: where land is more valuable (city centers for example), the benefits of resilience are higher. The paper also provides ranges for land value creation potential from the flood mitigation works in Buenos Aires under various model specifications. Although the estimates vary largely depending on model parameters and specifications, in many cases the land value creation would be sufficient to justify the investments. This result is robust even in the closed city configuration with conservative flood damage estimates, providing that the parameters remain reasonably close to the values obtained from the calibration. Finally, acknowledging that fully calibrating and running an urban simulation model is data greedy and time intensive – even a simple model as proposed here – this research also proposes reduced form expressions that can provide approximations for land value creation from flood mitigation investments and can be used in operational contexts.
PubDate: 2022-07-14
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-022-00117-7
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