 Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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- Understanding Winter Windstorm Predictability over Europe
Abstract: Understanding Winter Windstorm Predictability over Europe
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-12,2023
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study is investigating how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, GloSea5, and which might would need improvement to might improve the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
PubDate: Thu, 01 Jun 2023 14:09:03 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-122023
- Thunderstorm environments in Europe
Abstract: Thunderstorm environments in Europe
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
PubDate: Thu, 25 May 2023 18:22:30 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023 2023
- The teleconnection of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
events to the tropical North Atlantic in coupled climate models
Abstract: The teleconnection of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the tropical North Atlantic in coupled climate models
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
PubDate: Mon, 22 May 2023 18:22:30 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023 2023
- Model-simulated hydroclimate in the East Asian summer monsoon region
during past and future climate: a pilot study with a moisture source
perspective
Abstract: Model-simulated hydroclimate in the East Asian summer monsoon region during past and future climate: a pilot study with a moisture source perspective
Astrid Fremme, Paul J. Hezel, Øyvind Seland, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 449–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, 2023
We study the atmospheric moisture transport into eastern China for past, present, and future climate. Hence, we use different climate and weather prediction model data with a moisture source identification method. We find that while the moisture to first order originates mostly from similar regions, smaller changes consistently point to differences in the recycling of precipitation over land between different climates. Some differences are larger between models than between different climates.
PubDate: Mon, 15 May 2023 22:24:27 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023 2023
- What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European
river catchments from more moderate extreme events'
Abstract: What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events'
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
PubDate: Fri, 12 May 2023 07:34:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023 2023
- Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a
combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Abstract: Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
PubDate: Thu, 11 May 2023 07:34:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023 2023
- The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern
Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future
Abstract: The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
PubDate: Tue, 09 May 2023 07:34:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023 2023
- Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and
the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Abstract: Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
PubDate: Mon, 24 Apr 2023 19:55:24 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023 2023
- Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of
rapid intensification
Abstract: Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of rapid intensification
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
PubDate: Tue, 18 Apr 2023 16:23:43 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023 2023
- Exploring hail and lightning diagnostics over the Alpine-Adriatic region
in a km-scale climate model
Abstract: Exploring hail and lightning diagnostics over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a km-scale climate model
Ruoyi Cui, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-11,2023
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Our study focuses on severe weather events that occur over the Alpine-Adriatic region. By running simulations for eight real severe weather events and evaluating them against available observations, we found our models did a good job of simulating heavy rain, hail, and lightning. Overall, this research identified important meteorological factors for thunderstorms, and the results indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI diagnostics are promising candidates for future climate research.
PubDate: Mon, 17 Apr 2023 16:23:43 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-112023
- Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot
spells over Europe in CMIP5
Abstract: Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
PubDate: Tue, 11 Apr 2023 21:52:15 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023 2023
- Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric
perturbations using machine learning
Abstract: Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
PubDate: Tue, 04 Apr 2023 21:52:15 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023 2023
- Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the
Atlantic–European region
Abstract: Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
PubDate: Tue, 04 Apr 2023 21:52:15 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023 2023
- Investigation of links between dynamical scenarios and particularly high
impact of Aeolus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts
Abstract: Investigation of links between dynamical scenarios and particularly high impact of Aeolus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts
Anne Martin, Martin Weissmann, and Alexander Cress
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 249–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, 2023
Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission are an important recent substitute for the Global Observing System, showing an overall positive impact on numerical weather prediction forecasts. This study highlights atmospheric dynamic phenomena constituting pathways for significant improvement of Aeolus for future studies, including large-scale tropical circulation systems and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing an extratropical transition with the midlatitude waveguide.
PubDate: Tue, 28 Mar 2023 15:46:22 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023 2023
- A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip
historical ensemble simulations
Abstract: A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations
Tobias Christian Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-9,2023
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Here we investigate the role of the solar cycle in different atmospheric domains within the MPI-ESM-HR model. We focus on the tropical upper stratosphere, the Northern Hemisphere winter dynamics in middle atmosphere extratropics and evaluate potential surface imprints. We found robust solar signals at the tropical stratopause, and a weak dynamical response in the NH during winter. However, we can not confirm the importance of the 11-year solar cycle for the decadal variations in the troposphere.
PubDate: Fri, 24 Mar 2023 15:46:22 +010
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-92023
- Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a
probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology
Abstract: Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-10,2023
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1, we introduced RAMEFI, an objective and flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over Western and Central Europe focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
PubDate: Fri, 24 Mar 2023 15:46:22 +010
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-102023
- Effects on early monsoon rainfall in West Africa due to recent
deforestation in a convection-permitting ensemble
Abstract: Effects on early monsoon rainfall in West Africa due to recent deforestation in a convection-permitting ensemble
Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christopher M. Taylor, Douglas J. Parker, Adama Bamba, and Kouakou Kouadio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 229–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-229-2023, 2023
We estimate recent deforestation in West Africa and use a climate model allowing explicit convection to determine impacts on early season rainfall. We find enhanced rainfall over deforestation, in line with recent observational results, due to changes in circulation rather than humidity, showing potential for future studies. Local changes depend on initial soil moisture, deforestation extent, and ocean proximity, with sea breezes shifting inland where surface friction decreased.
PubDate: Wed, 22 Mar 2023 06:31:21 +010
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-229-2023 2023
- Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment
in tropical aquachannel experiments
Abstract: Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment in tropical aquachannel experiments
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-7,2023
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and global water cycle. However, it has been a long-standing problem in modeling community to simulate this rainfall feature realistically, and the reasons behind that are unclear. This manuscript presents a novel diagnostics that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall. Using our diagnostics, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in global weather and climate models.
PubDate: Mon, 27 Feb 2023 14:47:10 +010
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-72023
- Changes in synoptic circulations associated with documented derechos over
France in the past 70 years
Abstract: Changes in synoptic circulations associated with documented derechos over France in the past 70 years
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2023-8,2023
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this article, we analyse recent derechos, a type of severe windstorm, in France and assess the role of climate change in modifying their characteristics. To do so, we identify eleven events in the past and compare patterns of atmospheric circulation similar to those that triggered these events in a distant past (1950–1979), when warming was just beginning, and in the recent past (1993–2022). For most cases, precipitation are found to increase significantly because of higher temperatures.
PubDate: Mon, 27 Feb 2023 14:47:10 +010
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-82023
- Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric
warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Abstract: Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
PubDate: Thu, 23 Feb 2023 01:06:35 +010
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023 2023
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