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- Model-simulated hydroclimate variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon
across different climates: insights from a moisture source perspective
Abstract: Model-simulated hydroclimate variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon across different climates: insights from a moisture source perspective
Astrid Fremme, Paul Hezel, Øyvind Seland, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-52,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We study the atmospheric moisture transport into East China for past, present and future climate. To this end, we use different climate and weather prediction model data with a moisture source identification method. We find that the moisture sources are relatively similar for different climates when comparing the same climate models, while differences between models are partly larger than between different climates, which has important implications for interpreting the hydroclimate from models.
PubDate: Tue, 20 Sep 2022 15:47:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-522022
- Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the
tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer
Abstract: Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, 2022
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
PubDate: Fri, 16 Sep 2022 15:47:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022 2022
- Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation
Abstract: Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation
Michael K. Tippett, Chiara Lepore, and Michelle L. L’Heureux
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022, 2022
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are phenomena that affect the weather and climate of North America. Although ENSO hails from from the tropical Pacific and the AO high above the North Pole, the spatial patterns of their influence on a North American tornado environment index are remarkably similar in computer models. We find that when ENSO and the AO act in concert, their impact is large, and when they oppose each other, their impact is small.
PubDate: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 08:56:40 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 2022
- Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of
Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred
zonal wavenumbers
Abstract: Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
PubDate: Wed, 07 Sep 2022 01:04:23 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022 2022
- Supercell convective environments in Spain based on ERA5: hail and
non-hail differences
Abstract: Supercell convective environments in Spain based on ERA5: hail and non-hail differences
Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Javier Díaz-Fernández, Yago Martín, Pedro Bolgiani, Mariano Sastre, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Daniel Santos-Muñoz, José Ignacio Farrán, and María Luisa Martín
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, 2022
Supercells are among the most complex and dangerous severe convective storms due to their associated phenomena (lightning, strong winds, large hail, flash floods, or tornadoes). In this survey we study the supercell synoptic configurations and convective environments in Spain using the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5. Supercells are grouped into hail (greater than 5 cm) and non-hail events in order to compare and analyze the two events. The results reveal statistically significant differences.
PubDate: Mon, 05 Sep 2022 01:04:23 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022 2022
- The impact of the Agulhas Current System on precipitation in southern
Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future
Abstract: The impact of the Agulhas Current System on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-47,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
As stated in the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current System, the current along the east and south coast of Southern Africa.
PubDate: Mon, 05 Sep 2022 01:04:23 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-472022
- Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian
frontal rain
Abstract: Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Acacia Sarah Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-50,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the southern hemisphere circulation.
PubDate: Fri, 02 Sep 2022 13:16:23 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-502022
- Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode
decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Abstract: Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Lina Boljka, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Noel S. Keenlyside
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-51,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study examines quasi-periodic variability in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales and related physics using a recently developed timeseries analysis tool. We find that wind stress in the West-Pacific and recharge-discharge of ocean heat content are likely related to each other on ~2–4.5-year timescales (but not on other) and dominate variability in sea surface temperatures on those timescales. Further implications for climate models and long-term prediction are also discussed.
PubDate: Fri, 02 Sep 2022 13:16:23 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-512022
- Effects on Early Monsoon Rainfall in West Africa due to Recent
Deforestation in a Convection-permitting Ensemble
Abstract: Effects on Early Monsoon Rainfall in West Africa due to Recent Deforestation in a Convection-permitting Ensemble
Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christopher M. Taylor, Douglas J. Parker, Adama Bamba, and Kouakou Kouadio
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-49,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This is the first study to analyze the impact of realistic historical deforestation in West Africa using a model that does not rely on parameterization of convection. Unlike previous studies, we find rainfall increases from 18:00 to 6:00 with changes driven by changes in mesoscale circulations, in line with observations in the region. This shows the potential for future studies using similar models to examine the impact of realistic deforestation in West Africa on multi-annual time scales.
PubDate: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 13:17:58 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-492022
- Validation of boreal summer tropical-extratropical causal links in
seasonal forecasts
Abstract: Validation of boreal summer tropical-extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van der Hurk, Antje Weissheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-48,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. . In this analysis we detect these tropical – extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well can atmospheric model reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are too weak in model data.
PubDate: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 13:17:58 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-482022
- Dynamics of gap winds in the Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia: emphasis on
strong winds at Lake Abaya
Abstract: Dynamics of gap winds in the Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia: emphasis on strong winds at Lake Abaya
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
PubDate: Tue, 23 Aug 2022 13:17:58 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022 2022
- Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources
in subseasonal forecast systems
Abstract: Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irina Statnaia, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
PubDate: Fri, 19 Aug 2022 05:16:44 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022 2022
- Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic
Oscillation through stochastic process representation
Abstract: Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation
Kristian Strommen, Stephan Juricke, and Fenwick Cooper
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 951–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, 2022
Observational data suggest that the extent of Arctic sea ice influences mid-latitude winter weather. However, climate models generally fail to reproduce this link, making it unclear if models are missing something or if the observed link is just a coincidence. We show that if one explicitly represents the effect of unresolved sea ice variability in a climate model, then it is able to reproduce this link. This implies that the link may be real but that many models simply fail to simulate it.
PubDate: Wed, 17 Aug 2022 05:16:44 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022 2022
- European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: A Lagrangian
analysis
Abstract: European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: A Lagrangian analysis
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-45,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Future European temperature extremes associated with heatwaves will be even more amplified compared to the mean increase of summer temperatures. Following the airstreams associated with heatwaves backwards in time shows, that this amplification is probably linked to a feedback between boundary-layer air and dryer soils. Moreover, in some regions stronger descent contributes to a further amplification of 2 m temperatures.
PubDate: Wed, 17 Aug 2022 05:16:44 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-452022
- Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory
perspective
Abstract: Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory perspective
Costanza Rodda, Uwe Harlander, and Miklos Vincze
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 937–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, 2022
We report on a set of laboratory experiments that reproduce a global warming scenario. The experiments show that a decreased temperature difference between the poles and subtropics slows down the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude weather patterns. Another consequence is that the temperature variations diminish, and hence extreme temperature events might become milder in a global warming scenario. Our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases.
PubDate: Tue, 16 Aug 2022 05:16:44 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022 2022
- Summertime Rossby waves in climate models: substantial biases in surface
imprint associated with small biases in upper-level circulation
Abstract: Summertime Rossby waves in climate models: substantial biases in surface imprint associated with small biases in upper-level circulation
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
PubDate: Mon, 08 Aug 2022 12:24:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022 2022
- Towards a diagnostic framework unifying different perspectives on blocking
dynamics: insight into a major blocking in the North Atlantic-European
region
Abstract: Towards a diagnostic framework unifying different perspectives on blocking dynamics: insight into a major blocking in the North Atlantic-European region
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-44,2022
Preprint under review for WCD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Blocking describes a flow configuration in midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study presents a unified framework to capture blocking dynamics from three different perspectives and quantifies the importance of different processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view on the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of the blocking.
PubDate: Mon, 08 Aug 2022 12:24:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-442022
- Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by
extended-range ensemble forecasts
Abstract: Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts
Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 883–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, 2022
Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.
PubDate: Fri, 05 Aug 2022 12:24:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022 2022
- Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream
above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep
convection schemes
Abstract: Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
PubDate: Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:24:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022 2022
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on
the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter
Abstract: Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter
Amélie Simon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Vladimir Lapin, and Pablo Ortega
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, 2022
The influence of the Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes depends on persistent sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. In winter, Arctic sea-ice loss and a warm North Pacific Ocean both induce depressions over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, an anticyclone over Greenland, and a stratospheric anticyclone over the Arctic. However, the effects are not additive as the interaction between both signals is slightly destructive.
PubDate: Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:24:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022 2022
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