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- Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and
airstreams
Abstract: Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
PubDate: Mon, 19 Aug 2024 21:24:04 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024 2024
- Influence of mid-latitude sea surface temperature fronts on the
atmospheric water cycle and storm track activity
Abstract: Influence of mid-latitude sea surface temperature fronts on the atmospheric water cycle and storm track activity
Fumiaki Ogawa and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1031–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, 2024
The exchange of energy and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean is maximised along strong meridional contrasts in sea surface temperature, such as across the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. We find that these strong meridional contrasts confine and determine the position of evaporation and precipitation, as well as storm occurrence and intensity. The general intensity of the water cycle and storm activity, however, is determined by the underlying absolute sea surface temperature.
PubDate: Thu, 15 Aug 2024 00:00:52 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024 2024
- Tropical cyclone asymmetric eyewall evolution and intensification in a
two-layer model
Abstract: Tropical cyclone asymmetric eyewall evolution and intensification in a two-layer model
Ting-Yu Cha and Michael M. Bell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1013–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024, 2024
Our study investigates the dynamics of polygonal eyewall structures observed in intensifying hurricanes like Michael (2018) by using a simplified modeling approach. We develop a two-layer model to simulate the interactions between the free atmosphere and boundary layer to demonstrate the importance of different physical mechanisms in the intensification process. This simplified model offers insights into the interactions between dynamics and convection during hurricane intensification.
PubDate: Fri, 09 Aug 2024 17:36:36 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024 2024
- A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different
background flow configurations
Abstract: A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
PubDate: Tue, 06 Aug 2024 00:01:03 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024 2024
- Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar
amplification
Abstract: Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
PubDate: Wed, 31 Jul 2024 19:59:07 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024 2024
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again
despite climate change'
Abstract: Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change'
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
PubDate: Wed, 24 Jul 2024 11:21:37 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024 2024
- ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
Abstract: ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
PubDate: Wed, 24 Jul 2024 11:21:37 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024 2024
- Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic
perturbations on the model climate
Abstract: Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
PubDate: Fri, 19 Jul 2024 12:59:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024 2024
- Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability
connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Abstract: Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
PubDate: Fri, 19 Jul 2024 12:59:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024 2024
- Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex
morphology and disruptions
Abstract: Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions
Ales Kuchar, Maurice Öhlert, Roland Eichinger, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, 2024
Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against the ERA5 reanalysis data. Revelations about model discrepancies in simulating disruptive stratospheric warmings and vortex behavior highlight the need for refined model simulations of past climate. By enhancing our understanding of these dynamics, the research contributes to more reliable climate projections of the polar vortex with the impact on surface climate.
PubDate: Wed, 10 Jul 2024 14:22:26 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024 2024
- Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the
role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Abstract: Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
PubDate: Tue, 02 Jul 2024 12:07:50 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024 2024
- The study of the impact of polar warming on global atmospheric circulation
and mid-latitude baroclinic waves using a laboratory analog
Abstract: The study of the impact of polar warming on global atmospheric circulation and mid-latitude baroclinic waves using a laboratory analog
Andrei Sukhanovskii, Andrei Gavrilov, Elena Popova, and Andrei Vasiliev
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 863–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, 2024
One of the intriguing problems associated with recent climate trends is the rapid temperature increase in the Arctic. In this paper, we address the Arctic warming problem using a laboratory atmospheric general circulation model. We show that variations in polar cooling lead to significant changes in polar-cell structure, resulting in a substantial increase in temperature. Our modeling results provide a plausible explanation for Arctic warming amplification.
PubDate: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 16:39:48 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024 2024
- Changes in the tropical upper-tropospheric zonal momentum balance due to
global warming
Abstract: Changes in the tropical upper-tropospheric zonal momentum balance due to global warming
Abu Bakar Siddiqui Thakur and Jai Sukhatme
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 839–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024, 2024
We analyze the present and future states of the tropical upper troposphere. Observations and climate model simulations suggest that interactions between disparate families of waves and the mean flow maintain present-day upper-level winds, and each component undergoes complex changes due to global warming. While the net east–west flow of the atmosphere may remain unaltered, this study indicates robust changes to local circulations that may influence tropical precipitation and regional climate.
PubDate: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 13:54:05 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024 2024
- Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North
Atlantic
Abstract: Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
PubDate: Fri, 14 Jun 2024 22:13:45 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024 2024
- A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in
atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions
Abstract: A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions
Holly C. Ayres, David Ferreira, Wonsun Park, Joakim Kjellsson, and Malin Ödalen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, 2024
The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large, closed-off opening in winter sea ice that has opened only a couple of times since we started using satellites to observe sea ice. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the WSP on the atmosphere. We use three numerical models of the atmosphere, and for each, we use two levels of detail. We find that the WSP causes warming but only locally, alongside an increase in precipitation, and shows some dependence on the large-scale background winds.
PubDate: Thu, 06 Jun 2024 23:55:36 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024 2024
- Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and
parameterised deep convection simulations
Abstract: Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
PubDate: Fri, 31 May 2024 08:58:44 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024 2024
- Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic
mechanisms
Abstract: Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic mechanisms
Michael P. Byrne, William R. Boos, and Shineng Hu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 763–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-763-2024, 2024
In this study we investigate why climate change is amplified in mountain regions, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We examine EDW using observations and models and assess the roles of radiative forcing vs. internal variability in driving the historical signal. Using a forcing–feedback framework we also quantify for the first time the processes driving EDW on large scales. Our results have important implications for understanding future climate change in mountain regions.
PubDate: Wed, 22 May 2024 13:30:11 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-763-2024 2024
- Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Abstract: Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
PubDate: Mon, 13 May 2024 07:18:04 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 2024
- Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong
stratospheric polar vortex events
Abstract: Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events
Michael Schutte, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Jacopo Riboldi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024, 2024
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here, we use space–time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
PubDate: Wed, 08 May 2024 17:09:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024 2024
- Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of
errors in the Asian summer monsoon
Abstract: Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of errors in the Asian summer monsoon
Gill M. Martin and José M. Rodríguez
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024, 2024
Using sensitivity experiments, we show that model errors developing in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall errors through their effects on the western North Pacific subtropical high-pressure region and the winds and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean, exacerbated by local coupled feedback. Such information will inform future model developments aimed at improving model predictions for the ASM.
PubDate: Wed, 08 May 2024 17:09:08 +020
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024 2024
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