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- Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation: a Systematic Review of Research
Approaches and People’s Decision-Making-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review This review (1) describes the intersecting literature on climate change adaptation (CCA) and uncertainty (N= 562), and (2) synthesizes the findings of empirical studies about decision-maker uncertainty (n = 97). Recent Findings Uncertainty can be a barrier to adaptation, yet it is most often studied in relation to the scientific process, while uncertainties in people’s decision-making and their impact on CCA are less studied. Summary Despite the predominance of scientific uncertainties (52%), we see an upward-trend in studies of decision-making uncertainty (24%), and in combining natural and social sciences approaches (24%). Multiple sources of uncertainty influence CCA decisions besides climate trends, and their saliency and people’s responses vary depending on the role/function of the decision-maker and the timeframe of the decision. Concerns involve situational uncertainties, response options, and their consequences. Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes.
PubDate: 2023-02-17
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-023-00189-x
- The Promise of Private-Sphere Pro-environmental Behavior as Climate Action
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Abstract: Purposeof Review This piece situates research on pro-environmental behavior within broader discussions about climate policy and action. I discuss factors associated with the adoption of pro-environmental behavior, as well as methodological limitations that should be addressed in future work. Recent Findings Individual behavior drives a large proportion of total emissions, and lifestyle characteristics account for significant variability in individual carbon footprints. Yet behavior is difficult to change, and critics warn that “individualizing” climate action may be counterproductive. On average, interventions promoting pro-environmental behavior have produced small effects, though some promising approaches have emerged. Values matter, but strategies that modify social, informational, and structural conditions result in more impact. Summary There is much that can be gained from a better understanding of the factors that drive environmentally significant behavior. To increase relevance, researchers should carefully consider the strengths and limitations of measures and pursue behavior-specific inquiries to complement generalized approaches.
PubDate: 2022-11-07
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00188-4
- Assessing Methane Emissions From the Natural Gas Industry: Reviewing the
Case of China in a Comparative Framework-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review The aim of this paper is to explore methane emissions from China’s fossil fuel industry compared with the USA and Canada, with a focus on the methane emission mechanisms, calculation methods, mitigation potential, and abatement technologies. Recent Findings This paper explores the methane emissions from China’s natural gas industry from a comparative perspective. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) methane emissions from the natural gas production phase are the largest in the whole natural gas supply chain. (2) When it comes to measurement and estimation methods, methane emissions in the gas industry in the USA and Canada typically achieve a Tier 3 level, while China tends to be at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels. (3) There is large mitigation potential for methane emissions from the natural gas industry. More effective waste reduction technologies like green well completion should be implemented in the production phase, especially in China. At the same time, more attention should be drawn to the need for leakage detection technologies of pipelines in all countries compared here. Summary As a large methane-emitting country, China lags behind the USA and Canada in methane emission reduction. Therefore, Chinese scientists, policy makers, and entrepreneurs should pay attention to methane emissions. Stakeholders should enhance mitigation measures and leakage detection technologies in order to achieve climate targets.
PubDate: 2022-10-18
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00187-5
- Accelerating Pathways to Net Zero: Governance Strategies from Transition
Studies and the Transition Accelerator-
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Abstract: Purpose After decades of delay, there are promising signs that society may finally be getting serious about climate change. But the problem is now of such urgency that accelerating transition pathways to net zero is of paramount importance. Which governance approach gives society the best chance of simultaneously realizing the multiple sectoral and industrial transformations that net zero entails' How can policymakers and broader societal actors accelerate these transformative processes, setting in motion transition pathways to desirable futures' In response to these interrelated questions, we survey the literature on sustainability transitions and present an approach that aims directly at radical system change. Recent Findings Two decades of transition research has generated critical insights on accelerating transition pathways to net zero, highlighting key transformative strategies and pointing to the central role of the state, politics, and intermediaries. Summary Transition research indicates that reaching net zero entails radically transforming essentially all sectors and industries as they are deeply entwined with the use of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gas emissions. An ambitious state in conjunction with a strong constellation of intermediary organizations can set in motion and accelerate transition pathways by actively driving niche development surrounding promising innovations, promoting the diffusion of emerging alternatives, and phasing out carbon-intensive arrangements.
PubDate: 2022-08-20
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00185-7
- Beyond Climate Isolationism: a Necessary Shift for Climate Justice
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Abstract: Purpose of Review This review explores how more transformative climate policies are emerging arguing that such policies require decision-makers to move beyond the dominant, narrow technocratic lens that I call climate isolationism. Recent Findings Climate isolationism refers to the common framing of climate change as an isolated, discrete, scientific problem in need of technological solutions. Stemming from dominant assumptions of patriarchal white-male conceptions of privilege and power, climate isolationism has not only been ineffective in responding to the climate crisis and mobilizing transformative change but it has also resulted in climate and energy programs, policies, and priorities that exacerbate inequities and perpetuate economic and racial injustice. Summary This paper reviews the inadequacy and dangers of climate isolationism, explores why climate justice provides an alternative more effective framing, and calls for more intentional consideration of power and power dynamics in climate decision-making to shift from climate isolationism to climate justice.
PubDate: 2022-08-18
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00186-6
- The Role of Remaining Carbon Budgets and Net-Zero CO2 Targets in Climate
Mitigation Policy-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review Here, we review recent estimates of the remaining carbon budget, with a focus on characterizing key uncertainties and assessing the implications for net-zero CO2 targets and climate policy. Recent Findings Recent analyses offer a range estimates of remaining allowable CO2 emissions for the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C climate targets, though the treatment and coverage of key sources of uncertainty vary considerably among studies. We recommend that net-zero CO2 targets be set with explicit recognition of the uncertainty associated with carbon budget estimates and be updated regularly as this uncertainty is better constrained. Allocating the remaining carbon budget among countries or other entities, as well as monitoring progress at the subnational level, represents additional key challenges in applying a carbon budget framework to climate policy. Summary Despite these challenges, recent advances in quantifying carbon budget uncertainty demonstrate that the concept is well-suited to inform climate policy and to evaluate whether net-zero CO2 targets are consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
PubDate: 2022-08-17
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00184-8
- The Potential of Peatlands as Nature-Based Climate Solutions
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Abstract: Purpose of Review Despite covering only 3% of the land surface, peatlands represent the largest terrestrial organic carbon stock on the planet and continue to act as a carbon sink. Managing ecosystems to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and protect carbon stocks provide nature-based climate solutions that can play an important role in emission reduction strategies, particularly over the next decade. This review provides an overview of peatland management pathways that can contribute to natural climate solutions and compiles regional and global estimates for the size of potential GHG emission reductions. Recent Findings Degraded peatlands may account for 5% of current anthropogenic GHG emissions and therefore reducing emissions through rewetting and restoration offer substantial emission reductions. However, as a majority of peatland remains intact, particularly in boreal and subarctic regions, protection from future development is also an important peatland management pathway. Literature compilation indicates a global potential for peatland nature–based climate solutions of 1.1 to 2.6 Gt CO2e year−1 in 2030. Summary Peatland management can play an important role in GHG emission reductions while also providing many additional co-benefits such as biodiversity protection, reduced land subsidence, and fire-severity mitigation. Yet, climate warming will hinder the ability of peatland ecosystems to continue to act as carbon sinks indicating the importance of reducing future warming through rapid decarbonization of the economy to protect these globally significant carbon stocks.
PubDate: 2022-06-13
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00183-9
- Feasibility and Effectiveness Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Climate Change
Adaptation for Food Security and Nutrition-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review This review aims to identify the evidence for the assessment of the effectiveness and feasibility of multi-sectoral climate adaptation for food security and malnutrition. This review and the assessments of the evidence inform the contents and confidence statements in section “multi-sectoral adaptation for malnutrition” and in the Executive Summary of the IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 7: Health Wellbeing and Changing Community Structure. Recent Findings A review of adaptation for food security and nutrition FSN in West Africa concluded that food security and nutrition and climate adaptation are not independent goals, but often go under different sectors. Summary Most of the adaptation categories identified here are highly effective in reducing climate risks to food security and malnutrition, and the implementation is moderately or highly feasible. Categories include improved access to (1) sustainable, affordable, and healthy diets from climate-resilient, nutrition-sensitive agroecological food systems; (ii) health care (including child, maternal, and reproductive), nutrition services, water and sanitation; (iii) anticipatory actions, adoption of the IPC classification, EW-EA systems; and (iv) nutrition-sensitive adaptive social protection. Risk reduction, such as weather-related insurance, and risk management are moderately effective and feasible due to economic and institutional barriers. Women and girls’ empowerment, enhanced education, rights-based approaches, and peace building are highly relevant enablers for implementation of the adaptation options.
PubDate: 2022-06-01
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00181-x
- Can Science-Based Targets Make the Private Sector Paris-Aligned' A Review
of the Emerging Evidence-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review Companies increasingly set science-based targets (SBTs) for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We review literature on SBTs to understand their potential for aligning corporate emissions with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Recent Findings SBT adoption by larger, more visible companies in high-income countries has accelerated. These companies tend to have a good prior reputation for managing climate impacts and most appear on track for meeting their scope 1 and 2 SBTs. More research is needed to distinguish between substantive and symbolic target-setting and understand how companies plan to achieve established SBTs. There is no consensus on whether current target-setting methods appropriately allocate emissions to individual companies or how much freedom companies should have in setting SBTs. Current emission accounting practices, target-setting methods, SBT governance, and insufficient transparency may allow companies to report some emission reductions that are not real and may result in insufficient collective emission reductions. Lower rates of SBT diffusion in low- and middle-income countries, in certain emission-intensive sectors, and by small- and medium-sized enterprises pose potential barriers for mainstreaming SBTs. While voluntary SBTs cannot substitute for more ambitious climate policy, it is unclear whether they delay or encourage policy needed for Paris alignment. Summary We find evidence that SBT adoption corresponds to increased climate action. However, there is a need for further research from a diversity of approaches to better understand how SBTs may facilitate or hinder a just transition to low-carbon societies.
PubDate: 2022-04-27
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00182-w
- Precipitation Extremes and Water Vapor
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Abstract: Purpose of Review: Review our current understanding of how precipitation is related to its thermodynamic environment, i.e., the water vapor and temperature in the surroundings, and implications for changes in extremes in a warmer climate. Recent Findings: Multiple research threads have i) sought empirical relationships that govern onset of strong convective precipitation, or that might identify how precipitation extremes scale with changes in temperature; ii) examined how such extremes change with water vapor in global and regional climate models under warming scenarios; iii) identified fundamental processes that set the characteristic shapes of precipitation distributions. Summary: While water vapor increases tend to be governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship to temperature, precipitation extreme changes are more complex and can increase more rapidly, particularly in the tropics. Progress may be aided by bringing separate research threads together and by casting theory in terms of a full explanation of the precipitation probability distribution.
PubDate: 2022-02-05
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00177-z
- Extreme Convection vs. Extreme Rainfall: a Global View
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Abstract: Purpose of Review There is concern that extreme weather events may become stronger, more frequent, or both as the climate changes. This paper seeks more clarity in defining different types of extreme storms, and the global distribution of each type. Recent Findings Detailed case studies of specific events over the United States are revealing but the only way to document such occurrences globally is by using radar profiles from the GPM core satellite. Recent results differ somewhat depending on specific definitions and approaches, but they are starting to converge. Summary We demonstrate the global distribution of the ~ 1000 most extreme events of each type over a 5-year period and find that in addition to testing for extreme rain rates and extremely intense convection, we must also differentiate by size. Large rain areas containing extreme rates are exclusively oceanic, small rain areas often have extreme rates over land. The most intense convective cores are almost exclusively over land, regardless of size.
PubDate: 2022-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00176-0
- Climate Sensitivity and Ecoclimate Sensitivity: Theory, Usage, and Past
Implications for the Future Biospheric Responses-
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Abstract: Two usages of ‘climate sensitivity’ co-exist: one climatological and one ecological. The earlier climatological usage quantifies the sensitivity of global mean surface temperature to atmospheric CO2, with formal variants differing by timescale and processes. The ecological usage, renamed here as ecoclimate sensitivity, is defined as a change in an ecological response variable per unit climate change. The two concepts are treated very differently: climatologists have focused on reducing uncertainty of global climate sensitivity estimates, while ecologists have focused on the multivariate processes governing variations in ecoclimate sensitivity across drivers, response variables, and scales. Because radiative forcing scales logarithmically to [CO2]atm, ecological impacts per ppm [CO2]atm often also scale logarithmically, although non-linear ecoclimate sensitivities can alter this expectation. Critically, past estimates of climate and ecoclimate sensitivity carry an implicit tradeoff, in which smaller estimates of climate sensitivity indicate higher ecoclimate sensitivities. For the LGM, estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity have narrowed to 2.4 to 4.5 °C, while high ecoclimate sensitivity is indicated by post-glacial biome conversions, continental-scale species range shifts, and high community turnover. We introduce a new term, ecocarbon sensitivity, defined as the product of global climate sensitivity, local ecoclimate sensitivity, and a global-to-local climate scaling factor. Given past biospheric transformations, we can expect high sensitivity of the terrestrial biosphere to current rises in [CO2]atm, a conclusion that is insensitive to estimates of climate sensitivity. The next frontier is better quantification of the processes governing the form and variations of ecoclimate and ecocarbon sensitivity across systems and scales.
PubDate: 2022-01-24
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-022-00179-5
- Land Use Effects on Climate: Current State, Recent Progress, and Emerging
Topics-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review As demand for food and fiber, but also for negative emissions, brings most of the Earth’s land surface under management, we aim to consolidate the scientific progress of recent years on the climatic effects of global land use change, including land management, and related land cover changes (LULCC). Recent Findings We review the methodological advances in both modeling and observations to capture biogeochemical and biogeophysical LULCC effects and summarize the knowledge on underlying mechanisms and on the strength of their effects. Recent studies have raised or resolved several important questions related to LULCC: How can we derive CO2 fluxes related to LULCC from satellites' Why are uncertainties in LULCC-related GHG fluxes so large' How can we explain that estimates of afforestation/reforestation potentials diverge by an order of magnitude' Can we reconcile the seemingly contradicting results of models and observations concerning the cooling effect of high-latitude deforestation' Summary Major progress has been achieved in understanding the complementarity of modeling, observations, and inventories for estimating the impacts of various LULCC practices on carbon, energy, and water fluxes. Emerging fields are the operationalization of the recently achieved integration of approaches, such as a full greenhouse gas balance of LULCC, mapping of emissions from global models to country-reported emissions data, or model evaluation against local biogeophysical observations. Fundamental challenges remain, however, e.g., in separating anthropogenic from natural land use dynamics and accurately quantifying the first. Recent progress has laid the foundation for future research to integrate the local to global scales at which the various effects act, to create co-benefits between global mitigation, including land-based carbon dioxide removal, and changes in local climate for effective adaptation strategies.
PubDate: 2021-12-27
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00178-y
- Advances in Land Surface Modelling
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Abstract: Land surface models have an increasing scope. Initially designed to capture the feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere as part of weather and climate prediction, they are now used as a critical tool in the urgent need to inform policy about land-use and water-use management in a world that is changing physically and economically. This paper outlines the way that models have evolved through this change of purpose and what might the future hold. It highlights the importance of distinguishing between advances in the science within the modelling components, with the advances of how to represent their interaction. This latter aspect of modelling is often overlooked but will increasingly manifest as an issue as the complexity of the system, the time and space scales of the system being modelled increase. These increases are due to technology, data availability and the urgency and range of the problems being studied.
PubDate: 2021-05-11
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00171-5
- A Systematic Review of the Development and Validation of the Heat
Vulnerability Index: Major Factors, Methods, and Spatial Units-
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Abstract: Purpose of review This review aims to identify the key factors, methods, and spatial units used in the development and validation of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and discuss the underlying limitations of the data and methods by evaluating the performance of the HVI. Recent findings Thirteen studies characterizing the factors of the HVI development and relating the index with validation data were identified. Five types of factors (i.e., hazard exposure, demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, built environment, and underlying health) of the HVI development were identified, and the top five were social cohesion, race, and/or ethnicity, landscape, age, and economic status. The principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) was often used in index development, and four types of spatial units (i.e., census tracts, administrative area, postal code, grid) were used for establishing the relationship between factors and the HVI. Moreover, although most studies showed that a higher HVI was often associated with the increase in health risk, the strength of the relationship was weak. Summary This review provides a retrospect of the major factors, methods, and spatial units used in development and validation of the HVI and helps to define the framework for future studies. In the future, more information on the hazard exposure, underlying health, governance, and protection awareness should be considered in the HVI development, and the duration and location of validation data should be strengthened to verify the reliability of HVI.
PubDate: 2021-04-27
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00173-3
- Moisture Mode Theory’s Contribution to Advances in our Understanding of
the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Other Tropical Disturbances-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review Our understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and other tropical motion systems has significantly improved in recent years. This article reviews the contribution of moisture mode theory to this progress. Recent Findings Two realizations have contributed significantly to our understanding of the MJO: (1) Free tropospheric water vapor plays an important role in the occurrence and organization of tropical deep convection. (2) The latent heat released in convection is quickly transported around the tropics by gravity waves, the physical mechanism underpinning the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation. Simple models of the tropics that include (1) and (2) revealed the existence of moisture modes, waves in which water vapor plays a dominant role in their evolution. It was soon recognized that the MJO exhibits properties of moisture modes. The ensuing development and application of the so-called moisture mode theory of the MJO have led to the recognition that horizontal and vertical moisture advections are central to the propagation of the MJO, and that cloud-radiative heating is at least partially responsible for its maintenance. Moisture mode theory has also been applied to understand the MJO’s seasonality, Maritime Continent transit, and response to increasing CO2. Recent work suggests that moisture mode theory can be extended beyond the MJO in order to explain the observed diversity of tropical motion systems. Summary A mounting body of evidence indicates that the MJO has properties of moisture modes. Extension of the theory beyond the MJO may help us further understand the processes that drive large-scale tropical circulations.
PubDate: 2021-03-19
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00172-4
- Synthesis of Indicators, Datasets, and Frameworks Available to Establish
Resilience and Adaptation Indicators: Case Study of Chesapeake Bay Region,
USA-
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Abstract: Adaptation planning and evaluation is challenging because adaptation is occurring on complex systems that are not completely understood. Though assessment is more straightforward for single projects, the larger question often asked is whether multiple adaptation actions, developed by different actors and for different purposes, are making a region more resilient. One way to comprehensively assess adaptation is through indicators—a promising decision support tool because they can be designed to efficiently and comprehensively summarize system behavior even if significant uncertainty exists. In practice, choosing indicators requires navigating a rich and often contradictory information landscape of peer-reviewed and non-peer reviewed documents and data products, largely produced for other purposes. In this paper, we review the available information applicable to resilience indicators for the Chesapeake Bay region of the USA. To provide consistency across such diverse projects and information sources, we develop a resilience framework through literature and stakeholder engagement that provides a consistent definition of objectives and frame for evaluation. Using systematic search methods, we identified 283 relevant documents, which were then qualitatively assessed for climate change and resilience themes. Predominant themes emerge around key regional impacts—sea level rise, water quality, flooding, and aquatic ecosystems—as well as magnitude of, exposure to, and impacts of climate hazards. Notably, relatively little information was found for designing indicators for coping and adaptive capacity and adaptation responses. This result highlights that even for well-known problems in the Chesapeake Bay region, much work remains in translating the existing information landscape into actionable indicators.
PubDate: 2021-02-15
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00170-6
- The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate
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Abstract: Purpose of Review The Arctic has experienced the most rapid change in climate of anywhere on Earth, and these changes are certain to drive changes in the carbon budget of the Arctic as vegetation changes, soils warm, fires become more frequent, and wetlands evolve as permafrost thaws. In this study, we review the extensive evidence for Arctic climate change and effects on the carbon cycle. In addition, we re-evaluate some of the observational evidence for changing Arctic carbon budgets. Recent Findings Observations suggest a more active CO2 cycle in high northern latitude ecosystems. Evidence points to increased uptake by boreal forests and Arctic ecosystems, as well as increasing respiration, especially in autumn. However, there is currently no strong evidence of increased CH4 emissions. Summary Long-term observations using both bottom-up (e.g., flux) and top-down (atmospheric abundance) approaches are essential for understanding changing carbon cycle budgets. Consideration of atmospheric transport is critical for interpretation of top-down observations of atmospheric carbon.
PubDate: 2021-02-02
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00169-5
- Trait-Based Modeling of Terrestrial Ecosystems: Advances and Challenges
Under Global Change-
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Abstract: Purpose of Review We summarize the general structure of modern terrestrial ecosystem models and investigate how advances in trait-based modeling approaches help to better constrain predictions for ecosystem sensitivity to global change. Recent Findings In ecosystem models, empirical parameters are increasingly being replaced with plant physiological trait-based parameters, which can be directly measured in the field. The needs to predict long-term terrestrial ecosystem dynamics under climate change have spurred novel model developments including the representation of (i) vegetation processes across the critical zone, (ii) wood and belowground ecophysiology, and (iii) the effects of physiological trait acclimation. Summary Trait-based modeling of terrestrial ecosystems allows for the direct integration of measured plant ecophysiology with model processes, increasing the potential to constrain uncertainty and improve predictions under novel climate regimes. However, such increased model complexity requires careful model design, standardized intercomparisons, and benchmarking for model responses to both climate extremes and long-term trends.
PubDate: 2021-01-08
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00168-6
- Author Correction: Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in
Earth System Models-
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Abstract: The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake in the Acknowledgements section.
PubDate: 2020-11-19
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00167-7
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