 Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 174: Implementing Agile Data Workflows to Unlock
Climate-Resilient Urban Planning
Authors: Verena Vögt, Jan-Albrecht Harrs, Vanessa Reinhart, Pia Hollenbach, Michael Max Bühler, Tim Tewes
First page: 174
Abstract: Cities around the world are facing the implications of a changing climate as an increasingly pressing issue. The negative effects of climate change are already being felt today. Therefore, adaptation to these changes is a mission that every city must master. Leading practices worldwide demonstrate various urban efforts on climate change adaptation (CCA) which are already underway. Above all, the integration of climate data, remote sensing, and in situ data is key to a successful and measurable adaptation strategy. Furthermore, these data can act as a timely decision support tool for municipalities to develop an adaptation strategy, decide which actions to prioritize, and gain the necessary buy-in from local policymakers. The implementation of agile data workflows can facilitate the integration of climate data into climate-resilient urban planning. Due to local specificities, (supra)national, regional, and municipal policies and (by) laws, as well as geographic and related climatic differences worldwide, there is no single path to climate-resilient urban planning. Agile data workflows can support interdepartmental collaboration and, therefore, need to be integrated into existing management processes and government structures. Agile management, which has its origins in software development, can be a way to break down traditional management practices, such as static waterfall models and sluggish stage-gate processes, and enable an increased level of flexibility and agility required when urgent. This paper presents the findings of an empirical case study conducted in cooperation with the City of Constance in southern Germany, which is pursuing a transdisciplinary and trans-sectoral co-development approach to make management processes more agile in the context of climate change adaptation. The aim is to present a possible way of integrating climate data into CCA planning by changing the management approach and implementing a toolbox for low-threshold access to climate data. The city administration, in collaboration with the University of Applied Sciences Constance, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), and the University of Stuttgart, developed a co-creative and participatory project, CoKLIMAx, with the objective of integrating climate data into administrative processes in the form of a toolbox. One key element of CoKLIMAx is the involvement of the population, the city administration, and political decision-makers through targeted communication and regular feedback loops among all involved departments and stakeholder groups. Based on the results of a survey of 72 administrative staff members and a literature review on agile management in municipalities and city administrations, recommendations on a workflow and communication structure for cross-departmental strategies for resilient urban planning in the City of Constance were developed.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-24
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090174
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 175: Bamboo as a Nature-Based Solution (NbS) for
Climate Change Mitigation: Biomass, Products, and Carbon Credits
Authors: Chunyu Pan, Guomo Zhou, Anil Kumar Shrestha, Jialu Chen, Robert Kozak, Nuyun Li, Jinliang Li, Yeyun He, Chunguang Sheng, Guangyu Wang
First page: 175
Abstract: Bamboo, a rapidly growing woody grass prevalent in pan-tropical zones, holds promising potential as a nature-based solution (NbS) for climate change mitigation. In this systematic review of 91 research articles, we critically assess the scope and constraints of bamboo’s role in mitigating climate change across three dimensions: as a carbon sink in biomass form, as carbon storage in bamboo products, and as a contributor to carbon project credits. Our analysis reveals that existing studies disproportionately focus on 36 limited species, such as Phyllostachys pubescens and Bambusa vulgaris, with geographic concentration in Asia (91%) and limited studies from Africa (7%) and South America (1%). While many studies emphasize the carbon-saving benefits of bamboo products compared with traditional goods, there is a noticeable gap in comprehensive evaluations of carbon pools from individual bamboo forests encompassing all product varieties. While bamboo forests offer significant carbon trading potential, their global role is restricted by the absence of internationally accepted methodologies and the presence of debates about classifying bamboo as a tree species. This extensive review highlights the multifaceted value of bamboo in climate change mitigation, thereby highlighting its significance as a critical component for informed policymaking and the development of sustainable practices in future climate strategies worldwide.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-24
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090175
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 176: Projections of Changes in Atmospheric
Conditions Leading to Storm Surges along the Coast of Santos, Brazil
Authors: Marcely Sondermann, Sin Chan Chou, Priscila Tavares, André Lyra, José A. Marengo, Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza
First page: 176
Abstract: This study aims to assess the changes in the atmospheric conditions favorable to storm surges over the Santos Coast in Southeast Brazil. Storm surges can favor high sea level rises and coastal erosion, affecting people and strategic structures in coastal areas. The assessment of the atmospheric conditions was based on the downscaling of climate simulations of the Brazilian Earth System Model by the Eta regional climate model at higher spatial resolution. The detection scheme used by the model was able to reproduce the three observed atmospheric patterns favorable to storm surges found by recent studies: Pattern 1 is characterized by a cyclone on the synoptic scale over the ocean; Pattern 2 presents an intense wind fetch from the southeast; Pattern 3 is characterized by winds parallel to the coast. The simulations underestimated the number of cases in Patterns 1 and 2. However, it overestimated the number of days in Pattern 3. The model presented more intense winds in the three patterns. The storm surges characterized by Pattern 1 will become more intense. However, it will be equal to or less frequent. In Pattern 2, the number of events will decrease. Nevertheless, these episodes will be associated with more precipitation along the coastline. Pattern 3 will have a similar number of storm surges.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090176
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 177: Uganda’s Hydropower System Resilience
to Extreme Climate Variability
Authors: Francis Mujjuni, Thomas Betts, Richard Blanchard
First page: 177
Abstract: This study was motivated by the high reliance on hydropower plants (HPPs) developed and planned along the river Nile and the fact that drought events are the most imminent and drastic threats to Uganda’s power production. The study aimed to assess HPPs’ resilience and the effectiveness of selected adaptation measures. The climate, land, energy, and water system (CLEWs) framework was employed to assess resilience amidst competing water demands and stringent environmental flow requirements. Under extreme dry conditions, power generation could plummet by 91% over the next 40 years, which translates into an annual per capita consumption of 19 kWh, barely sufficient to sustain a decent socioeconomic livelihood. During arid conditions, climate models predicted an increase in streamflow with increasing radiative forcing. Restricting the ecological flow to 150 m3/s could improve generation by 207%. In addition, if planned power plants were to be built 5 years ahead of schedule, the normalized mean annual plant production could increase by 23%. In contrast, increasing reservoir volumes for planned power plants will have no significant impact on generation. The path to HPP resilience could entail a combination of diversifying the generation mix, installing generators with varying capacities, and incorporating adjustable orifices on reservoirs.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090177
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 178: Instrumental and Observational Problems of
the Earliest Temperature Records in Italy: A Methodology for Data Recovery
and Correction
Authors: Dario Camuffo, Antonio della Valle, Francesca Becherini
First page: 178
Abstract: A distinction is made between data rescue (i.e., copying, digitizing, and archiving) and data recovery that implies deciphering, interpreting, and transforming early instrumental readings and their metadata to obtain high-quality datasets in modern units. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes: palaeography and knowledge of Latin and other languages to read the handwritten logs and additional documents; history of science to interpret the original text, data, and metadata within the cultural frame of the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries; physics and technology to recognize bias of early instruments or calibrations, or to correct for observational bias; and astronomy to calculate and transform the original time in canonical hours that started from twilight. The liquid-in-glass thermometer was invented in 1641 and the earliest temperature records started in 1654. Since then, different types of thermometers have been invented, based on the thermal expansion of air or selected thermometric liquids with deviation from linearity. Reference points, thermometric scales, and calibration methodologies were not comparable, and not always adequately described. Thermometers had various locations and exposures, e.g., indoor, outdoor, on windows, gardens or roofs, facing different directions. Readings were made only one or a few times a day, not necessarily respecting a precise time schedule: this bias is analysed for the most popular combinations of reading times. The time was based on sundials and local Sun, but the hours were counted starting from twilight. In 1789–1790, Italy changed system and all cities counted hours from their lower culmination (i.e., local midnight), so that every city had its local time; in 1866, all the Italian cities followed the local time of Rome; in 1893, the whole of Italy adopted the present-day system, based on the Coordinated Universal Time and the time zones. In 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee (IMC) was founded, later transformed into the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a standardization of instruments and observational protocols was established, and all data became fully comparable. In dealing with the early instrumental period, from 1654 to 1873, the comparison, correction, and homogenization of records is quite difficult, mainly because of the scarcity or even absence of metadata. This paper deals with this confused situation, discussing the main problems, but also the methodologies to recognize missing metadata, distinguish indoor from outdoor readings, correct and transform early datasets in unknown or arbitrary units into modern units, and, finally, in which cases it is possible to reach the quality level required by the WMO. The aim is to explain the methodology needed to recover early instrumental records, i.e., the operations that should be performed to decipher, interpret, correct, and transform the original raw data into a high-quality dataset of temperature, usable for climate studies.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-27
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090178
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 179: The Detection and Attribution of Northern
Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and
Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data
Authors: Willie Soon, Ronan Connolly, Michael Connolly, Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Sallie Baliunas, Johan Berglund, Antonio Bianchini, William M. Briggs, C. J. Butler, Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco, Marcel Crok, Ana G. Elias, Valery M. Fedorov, François Gervais, Hermann Harde, Gregory W. Henry, Douglas V. Hoyt, Ole Humlum, David R. Legates, Anthony R. Lupo, Shigenori Maruyama, Patrick Moore, Maxim Ogurtsov, Coilín ÓhAiseadha, Marcos J. Oliveira, Seok-Soon Park, Shican Qiu, Gerré Quinn, Nicola Scafetta, Jan-Erik Solheim, Jim Steele, László Szarka, Hiroshi L. Tanaka, Mitchell K. Taylor, Fritz Vahrenholt, Víctor M. Velasco Herrera, Weijia Zhang
First page: 179
Abstract: A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090179
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 180: Evaluation of Gridded Meteorological Data for
Crop Sensitivity Assessment to Temperature Changes: An Application with
CERES-Wheat in the Mediterranean Basin
Authors: Konstantina S. Liakopoulou, Theodoros Mavromatis
First page: 180
Abstract: In areas with a limited or non-existent network of observing stations, it is critical to assess the applicability of gridded datasets. This study examined the agreement of Agri4Cast and E-OBS at two spatial resolutions (10 km (EOBS-0.1) and 25 km (EOBS-0.25)) in 13 Mediterranean stations nearby to wheat crops and how this agreement may influence simulated potential development and production with the crop simulation model (CSM) CERES-Wheat in historical and near-future (2021–2040) (NF) periods. A wide range of sensitivity tests for maximum and minimum air temperatures and impact response surfaces were used for the future projections. EOBS-0.1 showed the lowest discrepancies over observations. It underestimated statistical measures of temperature and precipitation raw data and their corresponding extreme indices and overestimated solar radiation. These discrepancies caused small delays (5–6 days, on average) in crop development and overestimations (8%) in grain production in the reference period. In the NF, the use of EOBS-0.1 reduced by a few (2–3) days the biases in crop development, while yield responses differed among stations. This research demonstrated the ability of EOBS-0.1 for agricultural applications that depend on potential wheat development and productivity in historical and future climate conditions expected in the Mediterranean basin.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-29
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090180
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 181: Sensitivity Analysis of Heat Stress Indices
Authors: Ahmed Rachid, Aiman Mazhar Qureshi
First page: 181
Abstract: More than 40 heat indices are being used across the world to quantify outdoor thermal comfort. The selection of an Outdoor Heat Stress Index (OHSI) depends on several parameters, including clothing, age, awareness, local environment, food consumption, human activities, and resources. This study investigates various indicators of heat stress, including (i) OHSIs officially used to quantify heat stress worldwide, (ii) the estimation methods of these indices, and (iii) the sensitivity analysis of indices, namely, Corrected Effective Temperature (CET), Heat Index (HI), Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Discomfort Index (DI), Summer Simmer Index (SSI), and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). The results indicate the degree of sensitivity of indices, with the HI being the most sensitive for estimating heat stress. Additionally, the WBGT, HI, and CET are recommended indices that can be directly measured using sensors instead of relying on calculated indices that are based on estimation techniques and some ideal physical assumptions.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-30
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090181
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 182: Trees Diversity and Species with High
Ecological Importance for a Resilient Urban Area: Evidence from Cotonou
City (West Africa)
Authors: Assouhan Jonas Atchadé, Madjouma Kanda, Fousseni Folega, Hounnankpon Yédomonhan, Marra Dourma, Kperkouma Wala, Koffi Akpagana
First page: 182
Abstract: Rapid urbanization and climate change effects may cause dramatic changes in ecosystem functions in cities, thereby inevitably affecting the growth performance of old trees. Few studies have explored species diversity and spatial differentiation in Benin urban areas. This study aims to explore this dimension of urban ecology in order to build resilience to climate change in the city of Cotonou. Its objective was to determine the predominant level of tree diversity in the city’s land use units. The urban green frame was subdivided into six land use units, namely, establishments, residences, green spaces, commercial areas, administrative areas, and roads. The forest inventories were carried out in 149 plots with surfaces evaluated at 2500 m2 each. The IVI, an index that highlights the relative density, relative dominance, and relative frequency of species, has been used to characterize the place occupied by each species in relation to all species in urban ecosystems. This shows ecological importance through the diversity and quality of ecosystems, communities, and species. A total of 62 tree species in 55 genera and 27 families were recorded. The results show that the flora of the city of Cotonou is characterized by a strong preponderance of exotic species with some differences in species presence. The most abundant species with high ecological importance (IVI) in the different types of land use of the city are Terminalia catappa (IVI = 121.47%), Terminalia mantaly (IVI = 90.50%), Mangifera indica (IVI = 64.06%), and Khaya senegalensis (IVI = 151.16%). As the use of ecosystem services is recommended to tackle urban climate hazards, this study shows that direct development of this urban vegetation could improve the resilience of urban life to climate hazards through the provision of urban ecosystem services, potential ecological infrastructure foundations, and urban nature-based solutions.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-30
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090182
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 183: Climate Change Perception and Vulnerability
Assessment of the Farming Communities in the Southwest Parts of Ethiopia
Authors: Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda, Diriba Korecha, Weyessa Garedew
First page: 183
Abstract: This study assesses the perceptions and vulnerability of the farming communities to climate change in the southwestern parts of Ethiopia. Climate change vulnerability assessment is a prerequisite to designing climate change adaptation strategies. A multistage cluster sampling technique was used to select four of the six zones from the southwestern parts of Oromia. Close-ended and open-ended questionnaires were used to assess household perceptions of climate change and the degree of vulnerability to climate change by using five household capitals: natural, social, financial, physical, and human capital. Data were collected from 442 households in 4 districts: Jimma Arjo, Bako Tibe, Chewaka, and Sekoru. The vulnerability of the farming communities was assessed using the households’ livelihood vulnerability index. A total of forty indicators from five capitals were applied to calculate household livelihood vulnerability to climate change. Household perceptions of climate change had a statistically significant relationship with changes in rainfall pattern (75.6%, p < 0.001), temperature pattern (69.7%, p < 0.001), drought (41.6%, p = 0.016), flood (44.1%, p = 0.000), and occurrence of early (53.2%, p < 0.001) and late rain (55.9%, p < 0.001). The results show that households in the Sekoru district were the most vulnerable (0.61), while households in the Jimma Arjo district were less vulnerable (0.47) to the effect of climate change. Household vulnerability to climate change is mainly related to the occurrence of drought, lack of much-needed infrastructure facilities, and weak institutional support. Links with financial organizations are also lacking in the household. The findings of this study will help policymakers to address the impact of climate change. To support disaster risk management on the one hand and increase the resilience of vulnerable societies to climate change on the other, we recommend a detailed assessment of the remaining districts of the region.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090183
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 184: Modeling Approaches for Residential Energy
Consumption: A Literature Review
Authors: Thomas Nacht, Robert Pratter, Johanna Ganglbauer, Amanda Schibline, Armando Aguayo, Panagiotis Fragkos, Eleftheria Zisarou
First page: 184
Abstract: The interest in sustainability and energy efficiency is constantly increasing, and the noticeable effects of climate change and rising energy prices are fueling this development. The residential sector is one of the most energy-intensive sectors and plays an important role in shaping future energy consumption. In this context, modeling has been extensively employed to identify relative key drivers, and to evaluate the impact of different strategies to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This article presents a detailed literature review relative to modeling approaches and techniques in residential energy use, including case studies to assess and predict the energy consumption patterns of the sector. The purpose of this article is not only to review the research to date in this field, but to also identify the possible challenges and opportunities. Mobility, electrical devices, cooling and heating systems, and energy storage and energy production technologies will be the subject of the presented research. Furthermore, the energy upgrades of buildings, their energy classification, as well as the energy labels of the electric appliances will be discussed. Previous research provided valuable insights into the application of modeling techniques to address the complexities of residential energy consumption. This paper offers a thorough resource for researchers, stakeholders, and other parties interested in promoting sustainable energy practices. The information gathered can contribute to the development of effective strategies for reducing energy use, facilitating energy-efficient renovations, and helping to promote a greener and more sustainable future in the residential domain.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-07
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090184
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 185: Thermodynamic Conditions during August 2022
in Catalonia: The Monthly Record of Hail Days, Hail Size and the
Differences in the Climatic Values
Authors: Tomeu Rigo
First page: 185
Abstract: The hailstorm of 30 August 2022 in the NE of Catalonia (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) produced the largest hail size, with diameters exceeding 10 cm. Furthermore, hail occurrence exceeded 2 cm in fourteen days and 4 cm in seven days during August 2022. The size and the days number constituted new records in Catalonia for at least the last 30 years. The analysis has compared the thermodynamic values derived from the sounding of Barcelona with the climatic data for 1998–2022 (25 years of data). This fact has allowed the selection and evaluation of different thermodynamic parameters’ behaviour during hail days in Catalonia. In this research, the precipitable water mass provided the best results as a hail forecaster. Second, the study has evaluated if the different parameters have a significant trend during the study period. The answer is yes in all cases, but some parameters presented a stepped rise while others increased smoothly. Finally, the research has analysed if the parameter values during August 2022 were extraordinary compared with the rest of the period. In this case, the thermodynamic parameters nature was well correlated with the hail size and occurrence maximums of August 2022.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090185
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 186: Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation in
the South and Southeast of Mexico
Authors: Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez, Martín José Montero-Martínez
First page: 186
Abstract: The advancements in global climate modeling achieved within the CMIP6 framework have led to notable enhancements in model performance, particularly with regard to spatial resolution. However, the persistent requirement for refined techniques, such as dynamically or statistically downscaled methods, remains evident, particularly in the context of precipitation variability. This study centered on the systematic application of a bias-correction technique (quantile mapping) to four designated CMIP6 models: CNRM-ESM2-6A, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0. The selection of these models was informed by a methodical approach grounded in previous research conducted within the southern–southeastern region of Mexico. Diverse performance evaluation metrics were employed, including root-mean-square difference (rmsd), normalized standard deviation (NSD), bias, and Pearson’s correlation (illustrated by Taylor diagrams). The study area was divided into two distinct domains: southern Mexico and the southeast region covering Tabasco and Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The findings underscored the substantial improvement in model performance achieved through bias correction across the entire study area. The outcomes of rmsd and NSD not only exhibited variations among different climate models but also manifested sensitivity to the specific geographical region under examination. In the southern region, CNRM-ESM2-1 emerged as the most adept model following bias correction. In the southeastern domain, including only Tabasco and Chiapas, the optimal model was again CNRM-ESM2-1 after bias-correction. However, for the Yucatan Peninsula, the IPSL-CM6A-LR model yielded the most favorable results. This study emphasizes the significance of tailored bias-correction techniques in refining the performance of climate models and highlights the spatially nuanced responses of different models within the study area’s distinct geographical regions.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090186
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 187: Unveiling Nature’s Resilience:
Exploring Vegetation Dynamics during the COVID-19 Era in Jharkhand, India,
with the Google Earth Engine
Authors: Tauseef Ahmad, Saurabh Kumar Gupta, Suraj Kumar Singh, Gowhar Meraj, Pankaj Kumar, Shruti Kanga
First page: 187
Abstract: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges to global health and economic stability. Intriguingly, the necessary lockdown measures, while disruptive to human society, inadvertently led to environmental rejuvenation, particularly noticeable in decreased air pollution and improved vegetation health. This study investigates the lockdown’s impact on vegetation health in Jharkhand, India, employing the Google Earth Engine for cloud-based data analysis. MODIS-NDVI data were analyzed using spatio-temporal NDVI analyses and time-series models. These analyses revealed a notable increase in maximum vegetation greenery of 19% from April 2019 to 2020, with subsequent increases of 13% and 3% observed in March and May of the same year, respectively. A longer-term analysis from 2000 to 2020 displayed an overall 16.7% rise in vegetation greenness. While the maximum value remained relatively constant, it demonstrated a slight increment during the dry season. The Landsat data Mann–Kendall trend test reinforced these findings, displaying a significant shift from a negative NDVI trend (1984–2019) to a positive 17.7% trend (1984–2021) in Jharkhand’s north-west region. The precipitation (using NASA power and Merra2 data) and NDVI correlation were also studied during the pre- and lockdown periods. Maximum precipitation (350–400 mm) was observed in June, while July typically experienced around 300 mm precipitation, covering nearly 85% of Jharkhand. Interestingly, August 2020 saw up to 550 mm precipitation, primarily in Jharkhand’s southern region, compared to 400 mm in the same month in 2019. Peak changes in NDVI value during this period ranged between 0.6–0.76 and 0.76–1, observed throughout the state. Although the decrease in air pollution led to improved vegetation health, these benefits began to diminish post-lockdown. This observation underscores the need for immediate attention and intervention from scientists and researchers. Understanding lockdown-induced environmental changes and their impact on vegetation health can facilitate the development of proactive environmental management strategies, paving the way towards a sustainable and resilient future.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090187
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 188: A Systematic Review of Existing Early Warning
Systems’ Challenges and Opportunities in Cloud Computing Early
Warning Systems
Authors: Israel Edem Agbehadji, Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, Joel Botai, Muthoni Masinde
First page: 188
Abstract: This paper assessed existing EWS challenges and opportunities in cloud computing through the PSALSAR framework for systematic literature review and meta-analysis. The research used extant literature from Scopus and Web of Science, where a total of 2516 pieces of literature were extracted between 2004 and 2022, and through inclusion and exclusion criteria, the total was reduced to 98 for this systematic review. This review highlights the challenges and opportunities in transferring in-house early warning systems (that is, non-cloud) to the cloud computing infrastructure. The different techniques or approaches used in different kinds of EWSs to facilitate climate-related data processing and analytics were also highlighted. The findings indicate that very few EWSs (for example, flood, drought, etc.) utilize the cloud computing infrastructure. Many EWSs are not leveraging the capability of cloud computing but instead using online application systems that are not cloud-based. Secondly, a few EWSs have harnessed the computational techniques and tools available on a single platform for data processing. Thirdly, EWSs combine more than one fundamental tenet of the EWS framework to provide a holistic warning system. The findings suggest that reaching a global usage of climate-related EWS may be challenged if EWSs are not redesigned to fit the cloud computing service infrastructure.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090188
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 189: Farmers Feel the Climate Change: Variety
Choice as an Adaptation Strategy of European Potato Farmers
Authors: Philipp von Gehren, Svenja Bomers, Tanja Tripolt, Josef Söllinger, Noémie Prat, Berta Redondo, Romans Vorss, Markus Teige, Anita Kamptner, Alexandra Ribarits
First page: 189
Abstract: Effects associated with a changing climate could severely threaten potato production in Europe. Hence, farmers need to take up adaptation measures to safeguard agricultural production. Collecting data from 553 farmers from 22 different European countries, our survey evaluates European potato farmers’ perceptions regarding the influence of climate change on local potato production, and their willingness to implement adaptation strategies. An overwhelming majority of survey respondents had already experienced the effects of climatic changes on their potato production. Specifically, drought and heat were identified as the most significant threats. The planting of an adapted variety was the preferred adaptation strategy, while farmers were also willing to take up changes in agricultural management practices. Survey respondents predominantly considered yield stability as the most important characteristic of an adapted variety, closely followed by heat tolerance, disease resistance, drought tolerance, and yield potential. When choosing a variety, the personal experience of the survey respondents as well as the experience of their peers were identified as the most important sources of information. Our survey gives valuable insights into the challenges European potato farmers are facing in times of climate change. Supplying farmers with better-adapted varieties would be a well-targeted and well-accepted measure to advance climate change adaptation.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090189
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 190: How Does Climate Change Worry Influence the
Relationship between Climate Change Anxiety and Eco-Paralysis' A
Moderation Study
Authors: Matteo Innocenti, Alessio Perilli, Gabriele Santarelli, Niccolò Carluccio, Doris Zjalic, Daniela Acquadro Maran, Lorenzo Ciabini, Chiara Cadeddu
First page: 190
Abstract: Climate change (CC) has a significant impact on human health, resulting in both physical and mental illnesses. Eco-anxiety—the excessive and pervasive fear about the consequences of CC—is the most studied psychoterratic state. This study presents the validation of Italian versions of Hogg’s Eco-Anxiety Scale (HEAS) and the Eco-Paralysis Scale. It also investigates the effects of worry on eco-anxiety and eco-paralysis. The study was conducted on 150 Italian individuals who responded to the two scales and to other questionnaires to make comparisons with the two above. Internal consistency and factorial structure were assessed through Cronbach’s alpha, Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Exploratory Factor Analysis. A median regression was used to assess the association between the EPS and the HEAS and Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) and their interaction. HEAS and EPS showed good psychometric properties: HEAS resulted in good internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.986), and the Eco-Paralysis scale had good test-retest reliability (r = 0.988). In both cases, a one-factor structure was suggested to be retained. The interaction terms between HEAS and CCWS (β = −0.02; 95% CI: −0.03, −0.01; p < 0.001) and between HEAS and education (β = −0.05; 95% CI: −0.08, −0.02; p < 0.001) were significant. Therefore, the feeling of worry seems to act as a moderator between climate change anxiety and eco-paralysis since it may appear to influence individuals and their ability to transform anxiety into action. Education plays a role in reducing the risk of Eco-Paralysis in subjects affected by climate change anxiety. Thus, data suggest that working on reinforcing a more cognitive concern might result in more problem-solving-focused strategies to face climate change anxiety and eco-paralysis.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090190
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 191: Analysis of the Composite Risk Grade for
Multi Extreme Climate Events in China in Recent 60 Years
Authors: Cunjie Zhang, Chan Xiao, Shuai Li, Yuyu Ren, Siqi Zhang, Xiuhua Cai, Zhujie Sangbu
First page: 191
Abstract: Much attention has been given to the change rule of a single extreme event, and there are few reports on comprehensive characteristics of multiple extreme events in a certain region. Based on the analyzes of annual frequency of extreme high temperature, extreme low temperature, extreme drought, extreme precipitation, and extreme typhoon events in China from 1961 to 2020, a multi extreme events composite risk grade index (MXCI) was constructed and applied to the comprehensive characteristics analyzes of multiple extreme events in China. The results show that the high value areas of MXCI were mainly located in southeast China and southwest China. Over the past 60 years, the MXCI has shown a decreasing trend in western China and most of southeastern China, and an increasing trend in the middle zone from southwest China to northeast China. Through comparative analysis, MXCI can objectively reflect the comprehensive characteristics of multiple extreme climate events in a region, which is helpful to understand regional extreme climate characteristics and effectively cope with extreme climate risks.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090191
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 192: Specifying the Gap between Nations’
Outward-Looking and Domestic Climate Policies: A Call for Measures of
Domestic Climate Policy Stringency
Authors: Todd A. Eisenstadt, Jennifer Lopez
First page: 192
Abstract: As nations fail to meet their climate emission mitigation goals, the ambition gap is widening between international climate policy (enacted by the United Nations) and domestic climate policy (what nations propose and enact). A widely held but little verified conventional wisdom exists that nations over-promise internationally and under-deliver domestically. While little data exist to directly test this hypothesis, we documented this gap by constructing heuristic indexes of domestic and international climate policy performance, showing that nations tend to “lead with the international”. We found that nations’ domestic policies are not significant in explaining emissions, although their international policies are significant. We concluded that beyond identifying this gap, analysts must devise metrics to assess domestic climate policy across a range of issue areas, as domestic policies are the foundation of any global effort to manage climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090192
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 193: Early Meteorological Observations in Almada
(Portugal) for the Period 1788–1813 by Medical Doctors
Authors: Nieves Bravo-Paredes, María Cruz Gallego, Ricardo M. Trigo, José Manuel Vaquero
First page: 193
Abstract: Early meteorological observations have been found for the period 1788–1813 in a collection of historical documents entitled “Medical and meteorological observation books” (Livros de observações médicas e meteorológicas) that is preserved nowadays in the Municipal Historical Archive of Almada. Almada is a Portuguese city located on the southern bank of the Tagus River, near the mouth of the river, in front of the capital city of Lisbon, which is located on the northern bank. In this work, more than 5000 meteorological readings for the period 1788–1813 have been recovered and analyzed. Daily values have been preserved for the period 1788–1789. However, only monthly values have stood the test of time for the period 1792–1813. The meteorological variables recovered are temperature, pressure, wind direction and the state of the sky. A quality control was carried out to find possible errors, either in the original data or in the digitization process. Unfortunately, there is no information in the metadata about the instruments or the observational methodology. Pressure and temperature data from modern and reanalysis datasets were used as references to study the agreement between these datasets and the Almada dataset. Daily pressure and temperature values from the Almada dataset were used to study, in particular, the meteorological conditions of the winter of 1788/1789 in Almada because this season was one of the coldest in the last 300 years in Central Europe. The complete dataset of early meteorological observations in Almada is freely available to the scientific community.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-15
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090193
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 194: Microeconomics of Nitrogen Fertilization in
Boreal Carbon Forestry
Authors: Petri P. Kärenlampi
First page: 194
Abstract: The nitrogen fertilization of boreal forests is investigated in terms of microeconomics as a tool for carbon sequestration. The effects of nitrogen fertilization’s timing on the return rate on capital and the expected value of the timber stock are investigated within a set of semi-fertile, spruce-dominated boreal stands using an inventory-based growth model. Early fertilization tends to shorten rotations, reducing timber stock and carbon storage. The same applies to fertilization after the second thinning. Fertilization applied ten years before stand maturity is profitable and increases the timber stock, but the latter effect is small. The fertilization of mature stands, extending any rotation by ten years, effectively increases the carbon stock. Profitability varies but is increased by fertilization instead of merely extending the rotation.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-18
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090194
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 195: Survey on Fungi in Antarctica and High Arctic
Regions, and Their Impact on Climate Change
Authors: Masaharu Tsuji
First page: 195
Abstract: The Antarctica and High Arctic regions are extreme environments, with average maximum temperatures below 0 °C for most days of the year. Interestingly, fungi inhabit these regions. This review describes the history of fungal surveys near the Syowa Station and the fungal diversity in this region. In the High Arctic region, I summarize the changes in the fungal communities of the glacial retreat areas of Ny-Ålesund, Norway and Ellesmere Island, Canada, in response to climate change. In addition, the ability of Antarctic and Arctic fungi to secrete enzymes at sub-zero temperatures is presented. Finally, the future directions of Antarctic and Arctic fungal research are provided.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090195
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 196: Credible Pathways to Catching Up with Climate
Goals in Nigeria
Authors: Samuel Chukwujindu Nwokolo, Edson L. Meyer, Chinedu Christian Ahia
First page: 196
Abstract: This paper seeks to address Nigeria’s challenges in meeting its climate objectives by investigating feasible pathways that can be implemented to accelerate progress and ensure credibility in meeting these targets. By examining the current policies and practices in place as well as successful strategies employed by other countries, this paper aims to provide strategies and policy implications recommendations for Nigeria to enhance its climate action efforts. The potential scenarios developed in this study ranged from increasing renewable energy capacity to implementing stricter regulations and standards for industries to reduce their carbon footprint, promote sustainable production processes, and strengthen climate governance and policy frameworks. The authors further investigated these measures and discovered that implementing stricter regulations and standards for industries would reduce their carbon footprint, promote sustainable production processes, and strengthen climate governance and policy frameworks. As such, Nigeria will be able to meet its climate goals more quickly as a result of the following factors: preventing environmental degradation, funding environmentally friendly infrastructure, and improving public transportation systems that can reduce vehicle-related greenhouse gas emissions. The authors developed policy measures based on the proposed twelve credible pathways to catching up with climate goals in Nigeria, thereby promoting faster progress by the Nigerian government in achieving climate goals. By adopting these measures, Nigeria’s progress toward the proposed zero net by 2060 will be significantly accelerated. It will position Nigeria as a continental leader in sustainable development and contribute to the overall global efforts to mitigate climate change. This will not only benefit the environment but also lead to financial development and an improved standard of living for its citizens.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090196
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 9 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 157: Small and Medium-Sized Entrepreneurs’
Perceptions of Flood Loss and Damage in Sri Lanka
Authors: Vindya Hewawasam, Kenichi Matsui
First page: 157
Abstract: As climate change has intensified flood risk and damage in many low-lying areas of the world, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which typically exist in developing countries, have endured high flood risks without much support for relief. This study investigates how SMEs in flood-prone areas of Colombo, Sri Lanka, the largest business hub in the country, have perceived and dealt with flood loss and damage in the past ten years. We conducted field surveys and a questionnaire survey among 60 SME owners in two flood-prone administrative units from March to June 2020. The results show that informal businesses experienced more flood loss and damage than other community members. Also, the community dominated by informal businesses tended to be located closer to potential flood sources. Ownership and awareness about flood insurance were very low in our study areas. Temporary business closure was the most serious loss experienced by informal business communities. These communities depended on personal savings to recover from floods. Our multiple regression analysis found that age, education, and experience significantly influenced SME owners’ perceptions and experiences about floods. After discussing these findings, this paper offers recommendations to mitigate disaster loss and damage to SMEs. In particular, it highlights the importance of community-level awareness and mitigation efforts rather than administrative unit-level mitigation plans. Also, the government needs to register informal businesses by providing a more flexible business registration mechanism.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080157
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 158: Climate Anxiety and Mental Health in Germany
Authors: André Hajek, Hans-Helmut König
First page: 158
Abstract: Our aim was to investigate the association between climate anxiety and mental health in a general adult population. Cross-sectional data of the general adult population were used (n = 3091 individuals aged 18 to 74 years; March 2022). The Climate Anxiety Scale was used to assess climate anxiety. Probable depression was quantified using the PHQ-9, and the GAD-7 was used to assess probable anxiety. Adjusted for sex, age, marital status, having children in the household, highest level of school education, employment situation, smoking behavior, alcohol intake, frequency of sports activities, chronic illnesses and self-rated health and coronavirus anxiety, multiple logistic regressions showed that a higher climate anxiety was associated with a higher likelihood of probable depression (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.25–1.50). Moreover, regressions showed that a higher climate anxiety was associated with a higher likelihood of probable anxiety (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.15–1.40). In conclusion, our study demonstrated an association between climate anxiety and mental health in Germany. Further research (e.g., based on longitudinal data) is required to confirm our study’s findings.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080158
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 159: Climate Urbanism as a New Urban Development
Paradigm: Evaluating a City’s Progression towards Climate Urbanism
in the Global South
Authors: Md. Abdur Rahman, Md. Zakir Hossain, Khan Rubayet Rahaman
First page: 159
Abstract: Climate change impacts, the resulting spatiotemporal changes, and growing uncertainty exert pressure on city leaders and policy makers to create climate adaptive development strategies worldwide. This article introduces climate urbanism as a new development paradigm that advocates for a climate adaptive urban development process, safeguarding urban economics and infrastructure, and ensuring equitable implementation of related strategies. The objective of this article is to determine how far a climate vulnerable city in the Global South has progressed toward climate urbanism. The study employs Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to develop a conceptual framework. Afterward, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and indexing are used to develop a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) method to assess the selected climate sensitive factors related to climate urbanism. Findings reveal that the city of Khulna’s climate urbanism index score is 0.36, which is extremely low and denotes subpar urban performance. ‘Climate Conscious Governance’ and ‘Climate Smart Infrastructure’ contribute little, while ‘Adaptive and Dynamic Urban Form’ and ‘Urban Ecosystem Services’ contribute even less. The binary logistic regression analysis reveals the significant indicators of (transformative) climate urbanism. The article provides a critical lens for stakeholders to evaluate climate urbanism and promote urban sustainability in the face of climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080159
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 160: Meteorological Drought Characterization in
the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)
Authors: Roberto Coscarelli, Tommaso Caloiero, Eugenio Filice, Loredana Marsico, Roberta Rotundo
First page: 160
Abstract: Due to the important role of water resources in the growth of the world’s economy, drought causes global concern for its severe worldwide implications on different sectors, such as biodiversity, farming, public water supply, energy, tourism, human health, and ecosystem services. In particular, drought events can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts in countries depending on rain-fed agriculture such as the ones in the Mediterranean region, which, due to a detected increase in warming and precipitation decrease, is considered a climate change hotspot. In this context, in this paper, meteorological drought in the Calabria region (southern Italy) has been characterized considering the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) evaluated at different timescales. First, the temporal distribution of the most severe dry episodes has been evaluated. Then, a trend analysis has been conducted considering the different seasons, the wet (autumn and winter) and dry (spring and summer) periods, and the annual scale. Finally, the relationship between drought and some teleconnection patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation—ENSO, and the Mediterranean Oscillation—MO) has been investigated. Results show that the majority of the severe/extreme drought events have been observed between 1985 and 2008. Moreover, a decrease in SPI values has been observed in winter and spring, in both the wet and dry periods, and upon the annual scale considering the 12-month SPI and the 24-month SPI. Finally, a link between the drought episodes in the Calabria region and the NAO phases and the MO has been identified. Since drought episodes can severely impact water resources and their uses, the findings presented in this work can be useful to plan and manage the water supply for household, farming, and industrial uses.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080160
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 161: Winter Climate of Northeastern Dominican
Republic and Cash Crop Production
Authors: Mark R. Jury
First page: 161
Abstract: The winter climate of the northeastern Dominican Republic features steady rainfall, which sustains cash crop production. Using a representative season, December 2016–February 2017, the mesoscale climate is characterized by high-resolution reanalysis, satellite measurements and local observations, and statistical analyses of time series from an index area of 18.8–19.6° N, 70.4–69.6° W in the Cibao Valley, where cacao and coffee are grown. Winter rainfall depends on strong trade winds that push shallow stratiform convections over 100 km inland, where nocturnal drainage flows induce orographic uplift. Interannual climate variability is studied in the context of cacao and coffee production in the years 1976–2019. Lag correlations demonstrate that higher yields follow a wet autumn, a windy winter with cool sea temperatures, and a dry spring. Changes in high-value agricultural production in the northeastern Dominican Republic may be anticipated by the climatic determinants uncovered here.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-27
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080161
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 162: Global and Regional Snow Cover Decline:
2000–2022
Authors: Stephen S. Young
First page: 162
Abstract: Snow cover affects the global surface energy balance and, with its high albedo, exerts a cooling effect on the Earth’s climate. Decreases in snow cover alter the flow of solar energy from being reflected away from Earth to being absorbed, increasing the Earth’s surface temperature. To gain a global understanding of snow cover change, in situ measurements are too few and far between, so remotely sensed data are needed. This research used the medium-resolution sensor MODIS on the Terra satellite, which has been observing global snow cover almost daily since the year 2000. Here, the MOD10C2 eight-day maximum value composite time series data from February 2000 to March 2023 were analyzed to detect global and regional trends in snow cover extent for the first 23 years of the 21st century. Trends in snow cover change during different time periods (seasons and snow-year) were examined using the Mann—Kendall test and the univariate differencing analysis. Both methods produced similar results. Globally, snow cover declined two to ten times as much as it increased, depending on the season of analysis, and annually, global snow cover decreased 5.12% (not including Antarctica or Greenland) based on the Mann—Kendall test at the 95th percentile (p < 0.05). Regionally, Asia had the greatest net area decline in snow cover, followed by Europe. Although North America has the second-largest extent of snow cover, it had the least amount of net decreasing snow cover relative to its size. South America had the greatest local decline in snow cover, decreasing 20.60% of its annual (snow-year) snow cover area. The Australia–New Zealand region, with just 0.34% of the global snow cover, was the only region to have a net increase in snow cover, increasing 3.61% of its annual snow cover area.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-29
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080162
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 163: Spatiotemporal Rainfall Variability and
Trends over the Mahi Basin, India
Authors: Uttam Pawar, Pramodkumar Hire, Miyuru B. Gunathilake, Upaka Rathnayake
First page: 163
Abstract: Climate change can have an influence on rainfall that significantly affects the magnitude frequency of floods and droughts. Therefore, the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution, variability, and trends of rainfall over the Mahi Basin in India is an important objective of the present work. Accordingly, a serial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), and Pettitt’s test were used in the rainfall analysis. The outcomes were derived from the monthly precipitation data (1901–2012) of 14 meteorology stations in the Mahi Basin. The serial autocorrelation results showed that there is no autocorrelation in the data series. The rainfall statistics denoted that the Mahi Basin receives 94.8% of its rainfall (821 mm) in the monsoon period (June–September). The normalized accumulated departure from the mean reveals that the annual and monsoon rainfall of the Mahi Basin were below average from 1901 to 1930 and above average from 1930 to 1990, followed by a period of fluctuating conditions. Annual and monsoon rainfall variations increase in the lower catchment of the basin. The annual and monsoon rainfall trend analysis specified a significant declining tendency for four stations and an increasing tendency for 3 stations, respectively. A significant declining trend in winter rainfall was observed for 9 stations under review. Likewise, out of 14 stations, 9 stations denote a significant decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall. Nevertheless, there is no significant increasing or decreasing tendency in annual, monsoon, and post-monsoon rainfall in the Mahi Basin. The Mann–Kendall test and innovative trend analysis indicate identical tendencies of annual and seasonal rainfall on the basin scale. The annual and monsoon rainfall of the basin showed a positive shift in rainfall after 1926. The rainfall analysis confirms that despite spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, there are no significant positive or negative trends of annual and monsoon rainfall on the basin scale. It suggests that the Mahi Basin received average rainfall (867 mm) annually and in the monsoon season (821 mm) from 1901 to 2012, except for a few years of high and low rainfall. Therefore, this study is important for flood and drought management, agriculture, and water management in the Mahi Basin.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-31
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080163
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 164: Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in
Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and
Innovative Trend Analysis Methods
Authors: Aimro Likinaw, Arragaw Alemayehu, Woldeamlak Bewket
First page: 164
Abstract: This study analyzed long-term extreme precipitation indices using 4 × 4 km gridded data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2018. The study examined trends in extreme precipitation over three districts (Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, and Simada) in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests were used to study extreme precipitation trends. Based on the ITA result, the calculated values of nine indices (90% of the analyzed indices) showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 70% (seven indices) showed significantly increasing trends at p < 0.01. On the other hand, 60% of the extreme indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.01) in Simada. The MK test revealed that 30% of the extreme indices had significantly increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 30% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05, while 10% of the extreme indices exhibited significant increasing trends at p < 0.01. In Simada, 20% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05. Overall, the results showed that the ITA method can identify a variety of significant trends that the MK test misses.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-31
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080164
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 165: Exploring Low-Carbon Design and Construction
Techniques: Lessons from Vernacular Architecture
Authors: Ming Hu
First page: 165
Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive review of low-carbon materials and construction techniques commonly used in vernacular buildings. The study highlights the relevance of vernacular architecture in the context of the shift towards sustainable construction practices. A combination of a climatic zone map, vernacular language type map, and continent map is used to identify the vernacular regions. Eight bio-based low-carbon materials, including wood, adobe, rammed earth, cob, sod, thatch, bamboo, and straw bales, are discussed, along with their characteristics, availability, and environmental impacts. The construction techniques associated with these materials are explained, emphasizing their simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and adaptability. The paper also explores two important design approaches: design for disassembly and design for modularity that were used in vernacular building. The review found the use of low-carbon materials and construction techniques derived from vernacular architecture can contribute to minimizing waste, reducing environmental impacts, and promoting a circular economy in the building industry. This research provides valuable insights for architects, engineers, and policymakers seeking sustainable alternatives in the construction sector.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-31
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080165
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 166: Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological
Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6
Projections
Authors: Glauber Willian de Souza Ferreira, Michelle Simões Reboita, João Gabriel Martins Ribeiro, Christie André de Souza
First page: 166
Abstract: Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydrological drought occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections obtained using the quantile delta mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increased duration and severity of events over the continent and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by decision-makers and energy planners.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080166
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 167: Assessing the Long-Term Production of
Suspended Sediment and the Climate Changes Impact on Its Deposition in
Artificial Lakes—A Case Study of Lake Trakošćan, Croatia
Authors: Dijana Oskoruš, Karlo Leskovar, Krešimir Pavlić, Igor Tošić
First page: 167
Abstract: A prevalent engineering task in practice is calculating the annual balance of sediments on some watercourses. This is particularly challenging when assessing the backfilling of river reservoirs that have a multifunctional purpose. Trakošćan Lake was built in the period from 1850 to 1862 as a pond and landscape addition to the park and Trakošćan castle. After 60 years, the lake was drained in 2022, and the work began on sediment excavation to improve the lake’s ecological condition due to about 200,000 cubic meters of deposited silt in the lake. In this research, the annual sediment production is calculated for the long-term period 1961–2020, based on empirical parametric methods (Fleming, Brunne). The results are compared with results from previous projects and recent sediment deposit investigations. Since there are no changes in LC/LU on this natural catchment, the decreasing trends in long-term sediment transport were compared with meteorological values, daily rainfall, and snow days. It is concluded that the intensity characteristics of the rainfall should be investigated more in detail and could provide much more tangible information regarding climate change impacts. Some targets for future monitoring design and research techniques are set.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080167
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 168: Trends and Patterns of Daily Maximum, Minimum
and Mean Temperature in Brazil from 2000 to 2020
Authors: Leone Francisco Amorim Curado, Sérgio Roberto de Paulo, Iramaia Jorge Cabral de Paulo, Daniela de Oliveira Maionchi, Haline Josefa Araujo da Silva, Rayanna de Oliveira Costa, Ian Maxime Cordeiro Barros da Silva, João Basso Marques, André Matheus de Souza Lima, Thiago Rangel Rodrigues
First page: 168
Abstract: According to data obtained from meteorological towers, Brazil has significantly increased temperature in the past 20 years, particularly in the North and Midwest regions. Vapor pressure deficit and evapotranspiration were also analyzed, showing an increase across the entire country, confirming that the air is becoming drier. This warming trend is part of the global climate change phenomenon caused by the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, fires, poor soil management practices, deforestation, and logging. The increase in temperature and dryness has profoundly impacted Brazil’s climate and ecosystems, leading to intensified extreme weather events and changes in the distribution of both animal and plant species. This study highlights the importance of utilizing meteorological tower data to monitor and understand the effects of climate change in Brazil. It emphasizes the need for immediate action to address its causes and mitigate its negative impacts.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080168
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 169: Super Climate Events
Authors: James E. Overland
First page: 169
Abstract: New environmental extremes are currently underway and are much greater than those in previous records. These are mostly regional, singular events that are caused by global change/local weather combinations and are larger than the impact of linear temperature increases projected using climate models. These new states cannot easily be assigned probabilities because they often have no historical analogs. Thus, the term super climate extremes is used. Examples are the loss of sea ice and ecosystem reorganization in northern marine Alaska, heatwave extreme in western Canada, and the loss of snow in Greenland. New combined extreme occurrences, which are reported almost daily, lead to a new, higher level of climate change urgency. The loss of sea ice in 2018–2019 was a result of warmer Arctic temperatures and changes in the jet stream. They resulted in a chain of impacts from southerly winds, the northward movement of predatory fish, and the reduction of food security for coastal communities. Record temperatures were measured in southwestern British Columbia following previous drought conditions, a confluence of two storm tracks, and warming through atmospheric subsidence. Greenland’s losses had clear skies and jet stream events. Such new extremes are present indicators of climate change. Their impacts result from the interaction between physical and ecological processes, and they justify the creation of a new climate change category based on super climate extremes.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080169
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 170: Use of a Hybrid Approach to Estimate
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Transport Sector in Palestine
Authors: Hanan A. Jafar, Isam Shahrour, Hussein Mroueh
First page: 170
Abstract: The transport sector is the second leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from fuel combustion activities on a global scale. Reducing emissions related to this sector requires detailed data about the emissions by vehicle type and traveled distance. Generally, these data are missing in developing countries, which makes difficult the establishment of effective policies for the reduction of these emissions. This paper presents a hybrid method to estimate these emissions using the IPCC 2006 guidelines. The method combines bottom-up and top-down approaches to estimate vehicular emissions using data about the vehicle type, vehicle kilometers traveled, and fuel consumption. This method is applied for the first time for the Palestinian territory. Data have been collected from the administration, official reports, and papers. The results show a significant increase in the total vehicles in Palestine, particularly diesel vehicles. Emissions from the on-road transport system were approximately 2,207,834 tons of CO2eq in 2019. Diesel vehicles were responsible for about 75% of these emissions. Private cars were the most significant contributor to these emissions, with a share exceeding 50% of the total emissions, followed by commercial vehicles and light trucks (20%), public taxis (9%), and buses (7%). These results show clearly that the GHGEs reduction policies in Palestine should focus on diesel and private vehicles by developing the public transport systems and replacing diesel and gasoline vehicles with more environmentally friendly vehicles, such as hybrid and electric cars.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080170
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 171: Generation Z Worries, Suffers and Acts
against Climate Crisis—The Potential of Sensing Children’s and
Young People’s Eco-Anxiety: A Critical Analysis Based on an
Integrative Review
Authors: Irida Tsevreni, Nikolaos Proutsos, Magdalini Tsevreni, Dimitris Tigkas
First page: 171
Abstract: The adverse and severe impacts of climate-induced natural hazards, which are expected to be aggravated by climate change, are forming a wider outline of the environmental crisis, being a source of negative emotions for human societies. Children and young people, in particular, are one of the most vulnerable social groups to this distress. In this research, we intend to analyze the eco-anxiety and climate anxiety aspects of Generation Z, based on a critical review of studies on children’s and young people’s ecological feelings worldwide, alongside a study of actual data on natural disasters per country since the year 2000. The results of the research revealed that (a) Generation Z worries in the Global North and suffers in the Global South, (b) Generation Z acts against climate change, and (c) there is an existential dimension of children’s and young people’s eco-anxiety. The study also highlights dimensions of eco-anxiety that are under-researched and are important to explore in the future. Empathizing with Generation Z’s emotional state in relation to ecological crisis and climate change may affect and highlight new directions in environmental thought and awareness.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080171
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 172: Under the Surface: Climatic and Societal
Challenges in Marine Spatial Planning in the Westfjords of Iceland
Authors: Maria Wilke, Sigríður Kristjánsdóttir
First page: 172
Abstract: As the global climate is changing dramatically, the Westfjords of Iceland are facing a multitude of challenges, including changing weather patterns, sea level rise, and invasive species. In order to cope with the recent climatic changes—many of which present great uncertainties to livelihoods—strategies must be developed to plan and adapt for the future. Iceland has recently launched marine spatial planning (MSP) endeavours, and one of the first planning processes has been conducted in the Westfjords. MSP presents opportunities for authorities, stakeholders, and the public to come together to forge a sustainable path ahead for marine areas that are under increasing pressure from human activities. However, MSP comes with its own considerable challenges as it attempts to engage stakeholders and the general public in decisions about an ‘invisible’ space largely beneath the surface of the sea. In this paper, the uncertainties of the environmental changes will be explored in conjunction with the multitude of societal challenges to coastal and marine planning in the Westfjords to establish Iceland’s unique context for MSP and to make recommendations for its development. Data from the planning documents as well as from semi-structured interviews and a workshop conducted in the Westfjords will be analysed and discussed. The results show both an urgent environmental need to take action to adapt to ongoing climate change effects and a complex societal structure that favours those who already have power and influence over others. Our recommendations include reforming the Icelandic MSP process with a view to strengthening the public participatory channels as well as the transparency, trust, and accessibility of the process.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080172
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 173: Effects of Climate Change on Temperate
Forests in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula
Authors: Leonel J. R. Nunes
First page: 173
Abstract: This review summarizes the intricate relationship between climate change and forest ecosystems in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, outlining both their resilience and vulnerabilities. The study asserts the significant impact of climate change on these ecosystems, reinforcing earlier theories about their responsive behavior to global climatic alterations. However, the impacts are highly localized, contingent upon specific forest compositions, topography, and interaction with other environmental stressors. The temperate forests of the Northwest Iberian Peninsula manifest a delicate balance of resilience and vulnerability in the face of these phenomena. Notably, the study underscores that this region’s forest ecosystems remain a relatively uncharted research territory, promising fruitful prospects for future exploration. Although existing studies offer vital insights into the climate change impacts, there is a stark need for further research to gain a deeper understanding of, and formulate appropriate responses to, the challenges that these specific ecosystems confront in the wake of climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-08-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11080173
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 8 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 142: Comparative Analysis of the Surface Urban
Heat Island (SUHI) Effect Based on the Local Climate Zone (LCZ)
Classification Scheme for Two Japanese Cities, Hiroshima, and Sapporo
Authors: Neshat Rahmani, Ayyoob Sharifi
First page: 142
Abstract: The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification system is used in this study to analyze the impacts of urban morphology on a surface urban heat island (SUHI). Our study involved a comparative analysis of SUHI effects in two Japanese cities, Sapporo and Hiroshima, between 2000 to 2022. We used geographical-information-system (GIS) mapping techniques to measure temporal LST changes using Landsat 7 and 8 images during the summer’s hottest month (August) and classified the study area into LCZ classes using The World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) method with Google Earth Pro. The urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI) is used to examine each LCZ’s thermal comfort level, and the SUHI heat spots (HS) in each LCZ classes are identified. The research findings indicate that the mean LST in Sapporo only experienced a 0.5 °C increase over the time, while the mean LST increased by 1.8 °C in Hiroshima City between 2000 and 2022. In 2000, open low-rise (LCZ 6) areas in Sapporo were the hottest, but by 2022, heavy industry (LCZ 10) became the hottest. In Hiroshima, compact mid-rise (LCZ 2) areas were the hottest in 2000, but by 2022, heavy-industry areas took the lead. The study found that LCZ 10, LCZ 8, LCZ E, and LCZ 3 areas in both Dfa and Cfa climate classifications had unfavorable UTFVI conditions. This was attributed to factors such as a high concentration of heat-absorbing materials, impervious surfaces, and limited green spaces. The majority of the SUHI HS and areas with the highest surface temperatures were situated near industrial zones and large low-rise urban forms in both cities. The study offers valuable insights into the potential long-term effects of various urban forms on the SUHI phenomenon.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070142
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 143: Sea Coast of the Western Part of the Russian
Arctic under Climate Change: Dynamics, Technogenic Influence and Potential
Economic Damage
Authors: Stanislav Ogorodov, Svetlana Badina, Daria Bogatova
First page: 143
Abstract: The Arctic coast dynamics has been an urgent problem over the last years, from both a practical and a fundamental point of view. In this research, for the first time for the Russian Arctic coast, we assessed the damage from the loss of territories in the western part of the Russian Arctic, where the active production and transportation of hydrocarbon material are carried out. Most of the studied coastline is composed of frozen unlithified soils with inclusions of underground ice. In this regard, the coastal zone is highly sensitive to climate change and its economic consequences. According to our investigation and literature data, the erosion rates could rich up to 2–3 m/year in some part of the coastline. Having estimated the cadastral cost of land and the area of the possible loss of territory, as well as the cost of transport infrastructure in the risk zone, we tried to predict the damage from changes in the total structure of the area under consideration. In particular, the economic damages from coastal permafrost processes were estimated. The assessment was conducted for the middle of the 21st century, taking into account the current climatic trend, erosion rate and probable maximum warming in this region.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070143
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 144: Does Climate Finance Support Institutional
Adaptive Capacity in Caribbean Small Island and Developing States' An
Analysis of the Green Climate Fund Readiness Grants
Authors: Liana Ricci, Maryline Mangenot
First page: 144
Abstract: Adaptation is crucial for addressing current and future climate change challenges in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and climate finance instruments, such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) can play a key role in increasing their adaptive capacity and supporting the integration of adaptation into policy and programmes. Few studies have analysed the linkages between climate finance, adaptation mainstreaming, and institutional adaptive capacity; however, assessments of the impacts of climate finance on adaptation and adaptive capacity, particularly at the institutional level, are still limited. This research assesses how climate finance may promote institutional change through the mainstreaming of adaptation policies at the national level, and may contribute to more institutional adaptive capacity. Through reviewing the documentation of approved Green Climate Fund Readiness Preparatory Support Grants, and through semi-structured interviews focusing on three Caribbean SIDS (Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, and Haiti), this paper shows that the grants had a positive impact on several processes, though sometimes limited by the strength and role of the institutions in place. These results demonstrate that access to climate finance can create a window of opportunity for countries to accelerate institutional change and adaptation integration. However, further studies are needed to examine the complementary influence of the different climate finance flows (multilateral or bilateral), and their interplay with national institutional mechanisms.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070144
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 145: Overcoming Bureaucratic Resistance: An
Analysis of Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation in South Africa
Authors: Nomfundo Patricia Sibiya, Dillip Kumar Das, Coleen Vogel, Sonwabo Perez Mazinyo, Leocadia Zhou, Mukalazi Ahmed Kalumba, Mikateko Sithole, Richard Kwame Adom, Mulala Danny Simatele
First page: 145
Abstract: Climate change is already a reality, and it is affecting the lives and livelihoods of many people globally. Many scientists argue that adaptation is, therefore, necessary to address the impact of climate change on life-supporting systems. Climate change adaptation, however, is a complex process that involves transformations implemented through governance at multiple levels. In this paper, the barriers to climate change adaptation in South Africa are presented and analysed. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted telephonically and online via Microsoft Teams with 13 government officials working at the Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment; the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Economic Development and Environmental Affairs; and the uMkhanyakude District Municipality. The findings suggest that the barriers to climate change adaptation in South Africa include inadequate financial resources, a lack of human capacity at the provincial and local levels, limited political will at the local level, limited understanding of climate change adaptation issues by communities, inadequate coordination across government levels and sectors, no legal mandate at the local level, no climate change unit at the district and local levels, a lack of knowledge by some staff members tasked with environmental duties at the local level, not enough climate change plans in place at the local level, and outdated information on climate change used in the IDPs. This paper, therefore, recommends that climate change be a standing item in the Integrated Development Plan for local governments, which will ensure that climate change is budgeted for appropriately. In addition, this paper suggests that a mandate for climate change adaptation be developed for all three government levels. There is also a need for the government to invest in capacity development and improve horizontal and vertical coordination to strengthen the weak climate governance capacity that exists.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-11
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070145
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 146: The Changing Climate Is Changing Safe
Drinking Water, Impacting Health: A Case in the Southwestern Coastal
Region of Bangladesh (SWCRB)
Authors: M. Ashrafuzzaman, Carla Gomes, João Guerra
First page: 146
Abstract: This study focuses on investigating the impact of climate change on the availability of safe drinking water and human health in the Southwest Coastal Region of Bangladesh (SWCRB). Additionally, it explores local adaptation approaches aimed at addressing these challenges. The research employed a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to gather data. Qualitative data were collected through various means such as case studies, workshops, focus group discussions (FGDs), interviews, and key informant interviews (KIIs). The study specifically collected qualitative data from 12 unions in the Shyamnagar Upazila. On the other hand, through the quantitative method, we collected respondents’ answers through a closed-ended questionnaire survey from 320 respondents from nine unions in the first phase of this study. In the next phase, we also collected data from the three most vulnerable unions of Shyamnagar Upazila, namely Poddo Pukur, Gabura, and Burigoalini, where 1579 respondents answered questions regarding safe drinking water and health conditions due to climate change. The findings of the study indicate that local communities in the region acknowledge the significant impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on freshwater sources and overall well-being, primarily due to increased salinity. Over 70% of the respondents identified gastrointestinal issues, hypertension, diarrhea, malnutrition, and skin diseases as major waterborne health risks arising from salinity and lack of access to safe water. Among the vulnerable groups, women and children were found to be particularly susceptible to waterborne diseases related to salinity. While the study highlights the presence of certain adaptation measures against health-related problems, such as community clinics and health centers at the upazila level, as well as seeking healthcare from local and paramedical doctors, it notes that these measures are insufficient. In terms of safe drinking water, communities have adopted various adaptation strategies, including pond excavation to remove saline water (partially making it potable), implementing pond sand filters, rainwater harvesting, and obtaining potable water from alternative sources. However, these efforts alone do not fully address the challenges associated with ensuring safe drinking water.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070146
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 147: The Drought Regime in Southern Africa: A
Systematic Review
Authors: Fernando Maliti Chivangulula, Malik Amraoui, Mário Gonzalez Pereira
First page: 147
Abstract: Drought is one natural disaster with the greatest impact worldwide. Southern Africa (SA) is susceptible and vulnerable to drought due to its type of climate. In the last four decades, droughts have occurred more frequently, with increasing intensity and impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and health. The work consists of a systematic literature review on the drought regime’s characteristics in the SA under current and future climatic conditions, conducted on the Web of Science and Scopus platforms, using the PRISMA2020 methodology, with usual and appropriate inclusion and exclusion criteria to minimize/eliminate the risk of bias, which lead to 53 documents published after the year 1987. The number of publications on the drought regime in SA is still very small. The country with the most drought situations studied is South Africa, and the countries with fewer studies are Angola and Namibia. The analysis revealed that the main driver of drought in SA is the ocean–atmosphere interactions, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The documents used drought indices, evaluating drought descriptors for some regions, but it was not possible to identify one publication that reports the complete study of the drought regime, including the spatial and temporal distribution of all drought descriptors in SA.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070147
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 148: Extreme Recreational Conditions in the Black
Sea Resorts Associated with the North Atlantic Climate
Authors: Anna A. Stefanovich, Elena N. Voskresenskaya, Veronika N. Maslova
First page: 148
Abstract: The tourist and recreational conditions of the Mediterranean-Black Sea resorts are closely related to hydrometeorological anomalies, which in turn are largely associated with the North Atlantic climate. The aim of this paper was to study the change and variability of the bioclimatic indices and their extremes at the Black Sea resorts (on the example of Yalta, Southern coast of Crimea, and Sochi, Caucasian coast) associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO). Using daily NCEP/NCAR (2.5° × 2.5°) and E-OBS (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis datasets, bioclimatic indices (wind cooling index, weight oxygen content, and equivalent-effective temperature) were calculated for January and July in 1950–2013/2018. The extreme index values were obtained using the 5th and 95th percentile relative thresholds. The results suggest that bioclimatic indices in Yalta are more sensitive to the global warming effect than those in Sochi, likely due to the geographical features. As a result, Yalta is becoming a year-round resort. It was shown for both resorts that negative EAO phase is significantly manifested in the increase of windy days in July versus the increase of windless days in the positive phase, and in the more frequent fresh and cold days in July (versus the opposite conditions in the positive phase only in Yalta). The NAO manifestations are mostly less pronounced than those of the EAO and are more significant in Sochi (mostly in January and in the negative NAO phase). Thus, it was shown that extreme values of bioclimatic indices occur at both resorts on the interannual scale depending on the NAO and EAO phases, but the conditions remain in the comfort range for now, even with the significant linear trends. The study can be expanded to other Mediterranean–Black Sea resorts for their sustainable development in a changing climate.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070148
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 149: Emission and Reduction of Air Pollutants from
Charcoal-Making Process in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta
Authors: Pham Van Toan, Lavane Kim, Nguyen Truong Thanh, Huynh Long Toan, Le Anh Tuan, Huynh Vuong Thu Minh, Pankaj Kumar
First page: 149
Abstract: Charcoal is a fuelwood commonly used for domestic purposes on the household scale in Africa and Southeast Asia. Earnings from charcoal production contribute to the income of local inhabitants in rural areas. Unfortunately, airborne emissions from the traditional charcoal-making process affect both human health and the ambient environment. A series of studies were performed at a charcoal-making village in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) to assess: (i) air pollutant emissions from the traditional charcoal-making process; (ii) the impacts on human well-being and the environment of traditional charcoal production; (iii) the loading of carbon dioxide from a charcoal-making kiln; and (iv) the efficiency in reducing contaminants of an air pollution-controlling method developed at a charcoal-making kiln. Study results revealed that the traditional charcoal-making method causes a substantial loss of carbon from fuelwood materials and emits the products of incomplete combustion. These contaminants negatively impact human well-being and the environment. Carbon dioxide and incomplete combustion substances emitted from the charcoal-making kiln are potential causes of the global warming phenomenon. The installation of an air pollution-controlling system at the charcoal-making kiln is recommended as an urgent solution before alternatives would be found to control the impacts of charcoal production.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070149
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 150: Potentiality of Charcoal as a
Dendrochronological and Paleoclimatic Archive: Case Study of
Archaeological Charcoal from Southeastern Altai, Russia
Authors: Anna Agatova, Roman Nepop, Vladimir Myglan, Valentin Barinov, Anna Tainik, Maja Filatova
First page: 150
Abstract: Archaeological charcoal from ancient nomad iron-smelting furnaces collected in the highland southeastern Russian Altai has great potential as a material for tree ring analysis. Dendrochronological dating was applied to 355 viable samples (>80% of the 448 collected ones), prepared using a new protocol. Individual tree ring series of 155 (~43%) samples were used to construct nine floating chronologies from 76 to 290 rings long. The archaeological and radiocarbon data on charcoal that fueled the hearths of the Kosh-Agach type bracket the floating tree ring chronologies between the second and tenth centuries AD. The results demonstrate that long tree ring “steppe” chronologies can be obtained for intermontane basins in the arid zone of Southern Siberia, using the analysis of charcoal samples. A strong climate signal imprinted in the annual growth of trees allowed for crossdating samples with relatively few rings. The revealed common climate signal for larches from different locations indicates similar paleoclimate conditions of their growth despite the strong modern southeastward aridization trend in the region, which was not so pronounced ca. 1.5 ka ago. The further matching of these chronologies to the calendar timeline will provide reference for the precise comparison of climatic conditions in the floors of intermontane basins and in the flanking mountains.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-16
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070150
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 151: Upwelling in Marginal Seas and Its
Association with Climate Change Scenario—A Comparative Review
Authors: Muhammad Naim Satar, Mohd Fadzil Akhir, Zuraini Zainol, Jing Xiang Chung
First page: 151
Abstract: After Bakun proposed his hypothesis in 1990 regarding upwelling under climate change, researchers conducted intensive studies to obtain the trends, current status, and future predictions of upwelling. Numerous studies have mainly focused on four major upwelling areas, which are part of the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (EBUS). However, despite its importance, little attention has been given to the marginal seas upwelling areas such as the South China Sea (SCS), Arabian Sea, Baltic Sea, and other small-scale upwelling locations. Here, we combined several published studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on these areas. There had been uncertainty regarding the intensification of upwelling, depending on the locations, data type, and method used. For the SCS, Vietnam and the northern SCS showed intensifying upwelling trends, while the Taiwan Strait showed a decreasing trend. Separate studies in eastern Hainan and the Arabian Sea (Somali and Oman) showed contrasting results, where both increasing and decreasing trends of upwelling had been recorded. Like the SCS, the Baltic Sea showed different results for different areas as they found negative trends along the Polish, Latvian and Estonian, and positive trends along the Swedish coast of the Baltic Sea and the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland. While small scales upwelling in La Guajira and southern Java showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. All of these limited studies suggest that researchers need to conduct a lot more studies, including the future projection of upwelling, by using climate models to develop a new understanding of how the upwelling in the SCS responds to climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-18
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070151
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 152: Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-Based
Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting Models Using Climate Indices for Three
Tributaries of Goulburn River, Australia
Authors: Shamotra Oad, Monzur Alam Imteaz, Fatemeh Mekanik
First page: 152
Abstract: Water resources systems planning, and control are significantly influenced by streamflow forecasting. The streamflow in northern and north-central regions of Victoria (Australia) is influenced by different climate indices, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole. This paper presents the development of the ANN model using machine learning with the multi-layer perceptron and Levenberg algorithm for long-term streamflow forecasting for three tributaries of Goulburn River located within Victoria through establishing relationships between climate indices and streamflow. The climate indices were used as input predictors and the models’ performances were analyzed through best fit correlation. The higher correlation values of the developed models evident from Pearson regression (R) values ranging from 0.61 to 0.95 reveal the models’ acceptability. The accuracies of ANN models were evaluated using statistical measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It is found that considering R, RMSE, MAE and MAPE values, the ENSO has more influence (61% to 95%) on the streamflow of Goulburn River tributaries than other climate drivers. Moreover, it is concluded that Acheron ANN models are the best models that can be confidently used to forecast the streamflow even six-months ahead.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070152
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 153: Evaluation of the 3DVAR Operational
Implementation of the Colombian Air Force for Aircraft Operations: A Case
Study
Authors: Jhon Edinson Hinestroza-Ramirez, Juan Ernesto Soto Barbosa, Andrés Yarce Botero, Danilo Andrés Suárez Higuita, Santiago Lopez-Restrepo, Lisseth Milena Cruz Ruiz, Valeria Sólorzano Araque, Andres Céspedes, Sara Lorduy Hernandez, Richard Caceres, Giovanni Jiménez-Sánchez, Olga Lucia Quintero
First page: 153
Abstract: This manuscript introduces an exploratory case study of the SIMFAC’s (Sistema de Información Meteorológica de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana) operational implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme that provides meteorological information for military, public, and private aviation. In particular, it investigates whether the assimilation scheme in SIMFAC’s implementation improves the prediction of the variables of interest compared to the implementation without data assimilation (CTRL). Consequently, this study compares SIMFAC’S 3DVAR-WRF operational implementation in Colombia with a CTRL with the same parameterization (without 3DVAR assimilation) against the ground and satellite observations in two operational forecast windows. The simulations are as long as an operational run, and the evaluation is performed using the root mean square error, the mean fractional bias, the percent bias, the correlation factor, and metrics based on contingency tables. It also evaluates the model’s results according to the regions of Colombia, accounting for the country’s topographical differences. The findings reveal that, in general, the operational forecast (3DVAR) is similar to the CTRL without data assimilation, indicating the need for further improvement of the 3DVAR-WRF implementation.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070153
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 154: Scale Dependence of Errors in Snow Water
Equivalent Simulations Using ERA5 Reanalysis over Alpine Basins
Authors: Susen Shrestha, Mattia Zaramella, Mattia Callegari, Felix Greifeneder, Marco Borga
First page: 154
Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the potential of ERA5 precipitation and temperature reanalysis for snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation by considering the role of catchment spatial scale in controlling the errors obtained by comparison with corresponding SWE simulations from ground stations. This is obtained by exploiting a semi-distributed snowpack model (TOPMELT) implemented over the upper Adige River basin in the Eastern Italian Alps, where 16 sub-catchments of varying sizes are considered. The comparison is carried out from 1992 to 2019. The findings show that ERA5 precipitation overestimated low-intensity rainfall (drizzle problem) and underestimated high-intensity rainfall, while ERA5 temperature underestimated observations. The overestimation of low-intensity rainfall created fictitious low-intensity snowfall events, which, when combined with colder ERA5 temperature, resulted in delayed snowmelt and increased fictitious snow-cover days over the study area. The quantile mapping (QM) technique was used to remove errors in ERA5 variables. It was shown that ERA5 could struggle to resolve the orographic enhancement in precipitation, which may be particularly important during high-SWE years. This reduces the positive precipitation bias during those years, thus reducing comparatively the ability of the quantile mapping technique to correct for bias homogeneously during all years. This study highlighted the importance of temperature correction over precipitation correction in SWE simulation, particularly for smaller basins.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070154
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 155: Regional Climate Change Adaptation Based on
the PSR Model—Multi-Case Comparative Analysis on a Global Scale
Authors: Mengzhi Xu, Jixia Li, Shixin Luan
First page: 155
Abstract: Regional climate change is affected by global warming, large-scale inter-regional circulation, and land use/cover. As a result of different ecological, economic, and social conditions, climate adaptation actions vary from region to region, including community-based adaptation in small island developing states, enhancing flood resilience in Europe, weather index insurance promotion in Africa, climate change adaptation based on traditional knowledge in the Polar Regions, and global joint decision-making in terms of regional issues of the Ocean. This paper takes the above five typical cases as the research objects, and the multi-case comparative research method is adopted to discuss regional climate change adaptation based on the pressure–state–response framework. It found that: (1) regional climate change adaptation faces significant pressure from cross-regional flows of finance, population, and species under climate change; (2) climate change hotspot maps based on climate change projections show regional climate vulnerability; (3) responses for regional climate change adaptation require active promotion of multi-level governance with horizontal and vertical cooperation. In the future, regional climate change adaptation should focus on inter-regional climate justice and equality, regional climate change adaptation pathways optimization, and how to effectively learn from typical regional climate adaptation cases.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-23
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070155
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 156: Early Humidity Measurements by Louis Morin in
Paris between 1701 and 1711—Data and Metadata
Authors: Thomas Pliemon, Ulrich Foelsche, Christian Rohr, Christian Pfister
First page: 156
Abstract: This paper discusses what is, to our knowledge, the oldest subdaily measurement series of humidity taken over several years. Louis Morin performed the measurements in Paris, three times a day, between May 1701 and June 1711. A correlation analysis of Morin’s humidity measurements with various meteorological variables yields results comparable to those of a parallel analysis of the relative humidity measurements of the E-OBS data: the Spearman correlation coefficient between the humidity and the daily minimum temperature is −0.43 (p < 0.01); with the mean temperature, it is −0.54 (p < 0.01); with the maximum temperature, it is −0.59 (p < 0.01); with the diurnal temperature range, it is −0.65 (p < 0.01); and with the total cloud cover, 0.33 (p < 0.01). However, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.11 (p < 0.01), no correlation is found with the precipitation data. Further evidence for the plausibility of the measurements is shown by a day-by-day analysis of the first half-year of 1709. Here, abrupt changes in the humidity measurements of Morin can be explained by the other measurements/observations of Morin. According to the correlation analysis, indirect notes in his journal, and others, we argue that Morin used the hygrometer developed by Vincenzo Viviani. However, the conversion of the data to common units is not performed and is subject to further research.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-07-23
DOI: 10.3390/cli11070156
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 7 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 231: The Contribution of Low-Carbon Energy
Technologies to Climate Resilience
Authors: Liliana Proskuryakova
First page: 231
Abstract: The UN vision of climate resilience contains three independent outcomes: resilient people and livelihoods, resilient business and economies, and resilient environmental systems. This article analyzes the positive contributions of low-carbon energy technologies to climate resilience by reviewing and critically assessing the existing pool of studies published by researchers and international organizations that offer comparable data (quantitative indicators). Compilation, critical analysis, and literature review methods are used to develop a methodological framework that is in line with the UN vision of climate resilience and makes it possible to compare the input of low-carbon energy technologies climate resilience by unit of output or during their lifecycle. The framework is supported by the three relevant concepts—energy trilemma, sharing economy/material footprint, and Planetary Pressures-Adjusted Human Development Index. The study identifies indicators that fit the suggested framework and for which the data are available: total material requirement (TMR), present and future levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) without subsidies, CO2 emissions by fuel or industry, lifecycle CO2-equivalent emissions, and mortality rates from accidents and air pollution. They are discussed in the paper with a focus on multi-country and global studies that allow comparisons across different geographies. The findings may be used by decision-makers when prioritizing the support of low-carbon technologies and planning the designs of energy systems.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120231
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 232: Tropical Cyclonic Energy Variability in North
Indian Ocean: Insights from ENSO
Authors: Debanjana Das, Sen Chiao, Chayan Roychoudhury, Fatema Khan, Sutapa Chaudhuri, Sayantika Mukherjee
First page: 232
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest natural meteorological hazards with destructive winds and heavy rains, resulting losses often reach billions of dollars, imposing a substantial and long-lasting burden on both local and national economies. The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction, is known to significantly impact cyclonic systems over global ocean basins. This study investigates the variability of TC activity in the presence of ENSO over the North Indian Ocean (NIO), comprising the Arabian Sea (ARB) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) basins during the pre- and post-monsoon season, using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the last 29 years. Our analysis reveals a significant rise in tropical cyclone energy intensity over the past two decades, with eight of the ten most active years occurring since the 2000s. Total ACE over the NIO is found to be higher in La-Niña. Higher ACE observed over ARB is strongly associated with a combination of elevated sea surface height (SSH) anomaly and low vertical wind shear during the El-Niño episodes, with higher sea surface temperatures (SST) during the post-monsoon season. Whereas in the BOB, El Niño not only reduces ACE, but also decreases basin-wide variability, and more pronounced effects during the post-monsoon season, coinciding with warmer SST and higher SSH along the coast during La-Niña.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120232
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 233: The Roles of Four Important Contexts in
Japan’s Carbon Neutrality Policy and Politics, 1990–2020
Authors: Christo Odeyemi, Takashi Sekiyama
First page: 233
Abstract: This study answers four research questions by contextualising the background to Japan’s “carbon neutrality and net-zero” (CNN) policy, which was announced in October 2020, and identifying important changes in Japanese climate policy between 1990 and 2020. What is the link between the problem of fairness under the Kyoto targets and the Japanese government’s initial reluctance towards ambitious carbon emission reductions' Why did the Japanese business sector initially resist the possibility of ambitious carbon emission reductions' How has the term “climate crisis” contributed to the need for CNN policy' Why did the Japanese government change its reluctant stance and announce the CNN policy in October 2020' Four main findings were extracted from a narrative technique-based analysis of Japan’s policy documents related to CNN. The following are the findings: [i] the framing of climate change as a “climate crisis” by influential Japanese climate stakeholders was a key motivation for Japan to formally announce its CNN policy in October 2020; [ii] pressure from the international community and the political leadership of the Yoshihide Suga administration are essential factors that led the Japanese government to change its stance and announced this policy; [iii] it is possible that the policy could have been announced sooner, but concern among Japanese climate stakeholders about the problem of fairness in the Kyoto Protocol’s emission reduction targets likely impeded such an announcement; and [iv] this concern underpinned Keidanren’s (or the business sector’s) consistent opposition to the introduction of regulatory schemes. These results emerge for the first time in a study of Japan’s carbon neutrality, particularly in terms of the broader context of climate politics. Finally, we offer a possible explanation for Suga’s deliberate announcement of the CNN policy. This opens up space for future research to complement our study by providing important indicators on the trajectory of this important policy.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-23
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120233
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 234: The Shift to Synergies in China’s
Climate Planning: Aligning Goals with Policies and Institutions
Authors: Qianyi Cai, Eric Zusman, Guobi Meng
First page: 234
Abstract: China has long sought to address climate change in line with other development goals. However, research supporting this alignment often employs data-driven models that downplay the policies and institutions needed to achieve the multiple benefits that studies feature in their analyses. This oversight is troubling because it neglects gaps between goals and the actual integration of climate and development or co-control of air pollution and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Additionally, this oversight may overlook growing implementation challenges as China pursues synergies between net-zero emissions, biodiversity, and circularity. This article illustrates these challenges by tracing the goals and policies/institutions in China over three phases: (1) integration (1979–2010), (2) co-control (2011–2019), and (3) synergies (2020–present). This article argues that China needs to strengthen the science–policy interface and ensure that new market-based policy instruments (such as emissions trading programs) as well as the leadership responsibility system incentivize reductions in overall GHG emissions while shrinking ecological footprints in the shifts to synergies.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120234
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 235: Assessing Tropical Cyclone Risk in Australia
Using Community Exposure–Vulnerability Indices
Authors: Kade Berman, Yuriy Kuleshov
First page: 235
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards to impact on Australia’s population, infrastructure, and the environment. To examine potential TC impacts, it is important to understand which assets are exposed to the hazard and of these, which are vulnerable to damage. The aim of this study is to improve TC risk assessments through developing an exposure–vulnerability index, utilising a case study for the six Local Government Areas (LGAs) impacted by the landfall of TC Debbie in 2017: Burdekin Shire, Charters Towers Region, Isaac Region, Mackay Region, City of Townsville, and Whitsunday Region. This study utilised a natural hazard risk assessment methodology, linking exposure and vulnerability indicators related to social factors, infrastructure, and the environment. The two LGAs with the most extreme exposure–vulnerability values were the coastal regions of Mackay Region and the City of Townsville. This is consistent with urbanisation and city development trends, with these LGAs having more people (social) and infrastructure exposed, while the environmental domain was more exposed and vulnerable to TC impacts in rural LGAs. Therefore, further resilience protocols and mitigation strategies are required, particularly for Mackay Region and the City of Townsville, to reduce the damage and ultimate loss of lives and livelihoods from TC impacts. This study serves as a framework for developing a TC risk index based on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices, and insight into the improved mitigation strategies for communities to implement in order to build resilience to the impacts of future TCs.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120235
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 236: Minimal Mechanisms Responsible for the
Dispersive Behavior of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Authors: Kartheek Mamidi, Vincent Mathew
First page: 236
Abstract: An attempt has been made to explore the relative contributions of moisture feedback processes on tropical intraseasonal oscillation or Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We focused on moisture feedback processes, including evaporation wind feedback (EWF) and moisture convergence feedback (MCF), which integrate the mechanisms of convective interactions into the tropical atmosphere. The dynamical framework considered here is a moisture-coupled, single-layer linear shallow-water model on an equatorial beta-plane with zonal momentum damping. With this approach, we aimed to recognize the minimal physical mechanisms responsible for the existence of the essential dispersive characteristics of the MJO, including its eastward propagation (k>0), the planetary-scale (small zonal wavenumbers) instability, and the slow phase speed of about ≈5 m/s. Furthermore, we extended our study to determine each feedback mechanism’s influence on the simulated eastward dispersive mode. Our model emphasized that the MJO-like eastward mode is a possible outcome of the combined effect of moisture feedback processes without requiring additional complex mechanisms such as cloud radiative feedback and boundary layer dynamics. The results substantiate the importance of EWF as a primary energy source for developing an eastward moisture mode with a planter-scale instability. The eastward moisture mode exhibits the highest growth rate at the largest wavelengths and is also sensitive to the strength of the EWF, showing a significant increase in the growth rate with the increasing strength of the EWF; however, the eastward moisture mode remains unstable at planetary-scale wavelengths. Moreover, our model endorses that the MCF alone could not produce instability without surface fluxes, although it has a significant role in developing deep convection. It was found that the MCF exhibits a damping mechanism by regulating the frequency and growth rate of the eastward moisture mode at shorter wavelengths.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-29
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120236
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 237: Residential Wind Loss Mitigation Case Study:
An Analysis of Insurance Claim Data for Hurricane Michael
Authors: Aneurin Grant, Christopher L. Atkinson
First page: 237
Abstract: This study analyzes insurance claim data from an 11-county area in the Florida Panhandle following the landfall of Hurricane Michael. The data includes 1467 non-mobile home structures, with 902 (61.5%) storm-damaged structures in Bay County. The analysis focuses on Wind Mitigation form 1802. Specifically, building design variables were analyzed via linear regression as to their influence on the percent claim loss. The building design variables included total square footage, dwelling construction type, age of the building, roof type, roof cover type, roof deck attachment type, roof to wall attachment, the presence of secondary water resistance (or sealed roof deck), opening protection type, and roof shape. Results show that building design variables for insurance claims have a high predictive value relative to a Category 5 hurricane event. However, the predictive values of building design variables are also dependent on the dwelling’s proximity to the coast, its location relative to the strong or weak side of the storm, the diameter of the storm, and other wind field variables.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-12-04
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120237
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 238: Climate Change and Extreme Events in
Northeast Atlantic and Azores Islands Region
Authors: Fernanda Silva Carvalho, Maria Gabriela Meirelles, Diamantino Henriques, João Porteiro, Patrícia Navarro, Helena Cristina Vasconcelos
First page: 238
Abstract: In small island regions, the influence of climate change assumes particular relevance. In the Azores archipelago, made up of nine islands, the geographical circumstances, oceanic condition, territorial dispersion, land use model and other physiographic constraints reinforce and enhance the vulnerability of the islands to changes in current weather patterns. Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections are used for the northeast Atlantic region to evaluate daily extreme climate events in large scale for the Azores region. Results shows changes in the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, the annual number of wet days, and especially in the annual number of tropical nights. Despite limitations due to the lack of spatial detail, the large-scale framework suggests changes that may be enhanced by topography, particularly with respect to precipitation. The conclusions point to the need to establish standard rules in the processes of design, reviewing and/or amending territorial management instruments at the municipal scale in the Autonomous Region of the Azores, with the goal of adapting to a different climate from the recent past.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-12-04
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120238
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 239: The Umlindi Newsletter: Disseminating
Climate-Related Information on the Management of Natural Disaster and
Agricultural Production in South Africa
Authors: Reneilwe Maake, Johan Malherbe, Teboho Masupha, George Chirima, Philip Beukes, Sarah Roffe, Mark Thompson, Mokhele Moeletsi
First page: 239
Abstract: The Umlindi newsletter was developed to provide information towards climate advisories, considering, for instance, drought conditions, presented in a relevant manner for the agricultural and disaster sectors in South Africa. This newsletter, which is disseminated on a monthly basis, provides information derived from climate-related monitoring products obtained from an integration of remote sensing and in situ data from weather stations. It contains useful indicators, such as rainfall, vegetation, and fire conditions, that provide an overview of conditions across the country. The present study demonstrates how these natural resource indices are integrated and consolidated for utilization by farmers, policy-makers, private organizations, and the general public to make day-to-day decisions on the management and mitigation of natural disasters. However, there is a need to expand these baseline observation initiatives, including the following: (1) forecasting future conditions to strengthen coping mechanisms of government, farmers, and communities at large; and (2) incorporating information on other natural disasters such as floods and extreme heat. In the context of South Africa, this information is important to improve disaster preparedness and management for agricultural productivity. In a global context, the Umlindi newsletter can be insightful for developing and disseminating natural resources information on adaptation to and mitigation of climate change and variability impacts to other regions facing similar risks. Furthermore, while international organizations also provide natural resource information, the Umlindi newsletter may be distinguished by its regional focus and linkages to individual communities. It bridges the gap between global environmental data and local decision-making by illustrating how global scientific knowledge may be applied locally.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-12-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120239
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 240: A Social Dimension of Adaptation and
Mitigation of Climate Change: Empowering Local Rural Communities to
Confront Extreme Poverty
Authors: Farshad Amiraslani, Deirdre Dragovich
First page: 240
Abstract: Climate change impacts occur at varying spatial scales requiring appropriately scaled responses. In impoverished rural areas, adapting to or mitigating the effects of climate change is challenging, with any short-term impairment to precarious livelihoods likely triggering negative community responses even if people are aware of long-term benefits. The paper will discuss a community-based carbon sequestration project in eastern Iran. It started in 2003 and since then has been expanded widely. It was nominated by UNDP as one of 10 transformative projects in Asia/Pacific in 2016. Over the past 20 years, the project has targeted improving the livelihood of the local communities while addressing local measures to adapt to/mitigate climate change. The paper elaborates on the formation of village development groups as pivotal drivers of success by highlighting local income-generating schemes and project documentation. Key lessons for climate change adaptation can be learnt and are applicable to other developing countries. Extreme poverty in rural areas facing climate change could be tackled through implementing bottom-up approaches in which local communities can be respected and engaged in co-leadership and planning.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-12-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120240
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 241: Intercomparison of Different Sources of
Precipitation Data in the Brazilian Legal Amazon
Authors: Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva, Claudia Priscila Wanzeler da Costa, Vânia dos Santos Franco, Helber Barros Gomes, Maria Cristina Lemos da Silva, Mário Henrique Guilherme dos Santos Vanderlei, Rafaela Lisboa Costa, Rodrigo Lins da Rocha Júnior, Jório Bezerra Cabral Júnior, Jean Souza dos Reis, Rosane Barbosa Lopes Cavalcante, Renata Gonçalves Tedeschi, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa Barreto, Antônio Vasconcelos Nogueira Neto, Edmir dos Santos Jesus, Douglas Batista da Silva Ferreira
First page: 241
Abstract: Monitoring rainfall in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA), which comprises most of the largest tropical rainforest and largest river basin on the planet, is extremely important but challenging. The size of the area and land cover alone impose difficulties on the operation of a rain gauge network. Given this, we aimed to evaluate the performance of nine databases that estimate rainfall in the BLA, four from gridded analyses based on pluviometry (Xavier, CPC, GPCC and CRU), four based on remote sensing (CHIRPS, IMERG, CMORPH and PERSIANN-CDR), and one from reanalysis (ERA5Land). We found that all the bases are efficient in characterizing the average annual cycle of accumulated precipitation in the BLA, but with a predominantly negative bias. Parameters such as Pearson’s correlation (r), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Taylor diagrams (SDE), applied in a spatial analysis for the entire BLA as well as for six pluviometrically homogeneous regions, showed that, based on a skill ranking, the data from Xavier’s grid analysis, CHIRPS, GPCC and ERA5Land best represent precipitation in the BLA at monthly, seasonal and annual levels. The PERSIANN-CDR data showed intermediate performance, while the IMERG, CMORPH, CRU and CPC data showed the lowest correlations and highest errors, characteristics also captured in the Taylor diagrams. It is hoped that this demonstration of hierarchy based on skill will subsidize climate studies in this region of great relevance in terms of biodiversity, water resources and as an important climate regulator.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-12-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11120241
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 12 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 213: Evaluation of Subseasonal Precipitation
Simulations for the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil
Authors: Nicole C. R. Ferreira, Sin C. Chou, Claudine Dereczynski
First page: 213
Abstract: Water conflicts have been a significant issue in Brazil, especially in the Sao Francisco River basin. Subseasonal forecasts, up to a 60-day forecast range, can provide information to support decision-makers in managing water resources in the river basin, especially before drought events. This report aims to evaluate 5-year mean subseasonal simulations generated by the Eta regional model for the period from 2011 to 2016 and assess the usefulness of this information to support decision-making in water resource conflicts in the Sao Francisco River basin. The capability of the Eta model to reproduce the drought events that occurred between the years 2011 and 2016 was compared against the Climate Prediction Center Morphing (CMORPH) precipitation data. Two sets of 60-day simulations were produced: one started in September (SO) and the other in January (JF) of each year. These months were chosen to evaluate the model’s capability to reproduce the onset and the middle of the rainy seasons in central Brazil, where the upper Sao Francisco River is located. The SO simulations reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation but underestimated the amounts. Precipitation errors exhibited large variability across the subbasins. The JF simulations also reproduced the observed precipitation distribution but overestimated it in the upper and lower subbasins. The JF simulations better captured the interannual variability in precipitation. The 60-day simulations were discretized into six 10-day accumulations to assess the intramonthly variability. They showed that the simulations captured the onset of the rainy season and the small periods of rainy months that occurred in these severe drought years. This research is a critical step to indicate subbasins where the model simulation needs to be improved and provide initial information to support water allocation in the region.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110213
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 214: Tree-Regeneration Decline and Type-Conversion
after High-Severity Fires Will Likely Cause Little Western USA Forest Loss
from Climate Change
Authors: William L. Baker
First page: 214
Abstract: Temperate conifer forests stressed by climate change could be lost through tree regeneration decline in the interior of high-severity fires, resulting in type conversion to non-forest vegetation from seed-dispersal limitation, competition, drought stress, and reburns. However, is fire triggering this global change syndrome at a high rate' To find out, I analyzed a worst-case scenario. I calculated fire rotations (FRs, expected period to burn once across an area) across ~56 million ha of forests (~80% of total forest area) in 11 western USA states from 2000 to 2020 for total high-severity fire area, interior area (>90 m inward), and reburned area. Unexpectedly, there was no trend in area burned at high severity from 2000 to 2020 across the four forest types studied. The vulnerable interior area averaged only 21.9% of total high-severity fire area, as 78.1% of burned area was within 90 m of live seed sources where successful tree regeneration is likely. FRs averaged 453 years overall, 2089 years in interiors, and 19,514 years in reburns. Creation of vulnerable interior area in a particular location is thus, on average, a 2000+ year event, like a very rare natural disaster, and reburns that may favor type conversion to non-forest have almost no effect. This means that, from 2021 to 2050 at most, only 3.0–4.2% of total forest area may become a vulnerable interior area, based on a likely high aridity-based climate projection of future fire and a higher scenario, where rates in the exceptional 2020 fire year have become the norm. These findings show that increased management to reduce high-severity fires is not currently needed, as the risk to forests from this global change syndrome is likely quite low up to 2050. Faster and larger disturbances (e.g., severe droughts) are more likely to cause most tree mortality or forest loss that occurs by 2050.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-30
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110214
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 215: Ninety-Nine Percent' Re-Examining the
Consensus on the Anthropogenic Contribution to Climate Change
Authors: David Dentelski, Ran Damari, Yanir Marmor, Avner Niv, Mor Roses, Yonatan Dubi
First page: 215
Abstract: Anthropogenic activity is considered a central driver of current climate change. A recent paper, studying the consensus regarding the hypothesis that the recent increase in global temperature is predominantly human-made via the emission of greenhouse gasses (see text for reference), argued that the scientific consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature pertaining to this hypothesis exceeds 99%. This conclusion was reached after the authors scanned the abstracts and titles of some 3000 papers and mapped them according to their (abstract) statements regarding the above hypothesis. Here, we point out some major flaws in the methodology, analysis, and conclusions of the study. Using the data provided in the study, we show that the 99% consensus, as defined by the authors, is actually an upper limit evaluation because of the large number of “neutral” papers which were counted as pro-consensus in the paper and probably does not reflect the true situation. We further analyze these results by evaluating how so-called “skeptic” papers fit the consensus and find that biases in the literature, which were not accounted for in the aforementioned study, may place the consensus on the low side. Finally, we show that the rating method used in the study suffers from a subjective bias which is reflected in large variations between ratings of the same paper by different raters. All these lead to the conclusion that the conclusions of the study does not follow from the data.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-30
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110215
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 216: The Role of Translocal Practices in a Natural
Climate Solution in Ghana
Authors: John Narh, Stefanie Wehner, Christian Ungruhe, Andreas Eberth
First page: 216
Abstract: People-centred reforestation is one of the ways to achieve natural climate solutions. Ghana has established a people-centred reforestation programme known as the Modified Taunya System (MTS) where local people are assigned degraded forest reserves to practice agroforestry. Given that the MTS is a people-centred initiative, socioeconomic factors are likely to have impact on the reforestation drive. This study aims to understand the role of translocal practices of remittances and visits by migrants on the MTS. Using multi-sited, sequential explanatory mixed methods and the lens of socioecological systems, the study shows that social capital and socioeconomic obligations of cash remittances from, as well as visits by migrants to their communities of origin play positive roles on reforestation under the MTS. Specifically, translocal households have access to, and use remittances to engage relatively better in the MTS than households that do not receive remittances. This shows that translocal practices can have a positive impact on the environment at the area of origin of migrants where there are people-centred environmental policies in place.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-30
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110216
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 217: Assessing Property Exposure to Cyclonic Winds
under Climate Change
Authors: Evelyn G. Shu, Mariah Pope, Bradley Wilson, Mark Bauer, Mike Amodeo, Neil Freeman, Jeremy R. Porter
First page: 217
Abstract: Properties in the United States face increasing exposure to tropical storm-level winds due to climate change. Driving this increasing risk are severe hurricanes that are more likely to occur when hurricanes form in the future and the northward shift of Atlantic-formed hurricanes, increasing the estimated exposure of buildings and infrastructure to damaging winds. The wind model presented here combines open data and science by utilizing high-resolution topography, computer-modeled hurricane tracks, and property data to create hyper-local tropical cyclone wind exposure information for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from current time to 2053 under RCP 4.5. This allows for a detailed evaluation of probable wind speeds by several return periods, probabilities of cyclonic thresholds being reached or surpassed, and a comparison of this cyclone-level wind exposure between the current year and 30 years into the future under climatic changes. The results of this research reveal extensive exposure along the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic Coasts, with significant growing exposure in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the country.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-01
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110217
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 218: Correction: Lightburn, K.D. Can a Symbolic
Mega-Unit of Radiative Forcing (RF) Improve Understanding and Assessment
of Global Warming and of Mitigation Methods Using Albedo Enhancement from
Algae, Cloud, and Land (AEfACL)' Climate 2023, 11, 62
Authors: Kenneth D. Lightburn
First page: 218
Abstract: There were errors in the original publication [...]
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-01
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110218
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 219: Grassland Resilience to Woody Encroachment in
North America and the Effectiveness of Using Fire in National Parks
Authors: Han Ling, Guangyu Wang, Wanli Wu, Anil Shrestha, John L. Innes
First page: 219
Abstract: The grasslands of North America are threatened by woody encroachment. Restoring historical fire regimes has been used to manage brush encroachment. However, fire management may be insufficient due to the nonlinear and hysteretic responses of vegetation recovery following encroachment and the social–political constraints affecting fire management. We synthesized the fire thresholds required to control woody encroachment by typical encroaching species in North America, especially the Great Plains region, and identified the social–political constraints facing fire management in selected grassland national parks. Our synthesis revealed the resistance, hysteresis, and irreversibility of encroached grasslands using fire and emphasized the need for a combination of brush management methods if the impacts of climate change are to be addressed. Frequent fires alone may maintain grassland states, reflecting resistance. However, high-intensity fires exceeding fire-mortality thresholds are required to exclude non-resprouting shrubs and trees, indicating hysteresis. Fire alone may be insufficient to reverse encroachment by resprouting species, exhibiting reversibility. In practice, appropriate fire management may restore resistant grassland states. However, social–political constraints have restricted the use of frequent and high-intensity fires, thereby reducing the effectiveness of management actions to control woody encroachment of grasslands in national parks. This research proposes a resilience-based framework to manage woody encroachment in grassland national parks and similar protected areas.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110219
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 220: Microclimate and Vegetation Structure
Significantly Affect Butterfly Assemblages in a Tropical Dry Forest
Authors: Anirban Mahata, Rajendra Mohan Panda, Padmanava Dash, Ayusmita Naik, Alok Kumar Naik, Sharat Kumar Palita
First page: 220
Abstract: Understanding the factors that influence the diversity and distribution of butterfly species is crucial for prioritizing conservation. The Eastern Ghats of India is an ideal site for such a study, where butterfly diversity studies have yet to receive much attention. This study emphasized the butterfly assemblages of three prominent habitats in the region: open forests, riparian forests, and dense forests. We hypothesized that riparian forests would be the most preferred habitat for the butterflies, as they provide suitable microclimatic conditions for butterflies. The study collected samples for 35 grids of 2 × 2 km2 for each habitat during the dry months (December–June). We considered the relative humidity, temperature, light intensity, elevation, and canopy cover to assess their influences on butterfly richness and abundance. We also considered the impact of disturbances on their distribution. We used structural equation modeling and canonical correspondence analysis to quantify the correlation and causation between the butterflies and their environment. The study recorded 1614 individual butterflies of 79 species from 57 genera and 6 families. During the study, we found that temperature was the most significant factor influencing butterfly richness. Relative humidity was also important and had a positive impact on butterfly richness. Riparian forests, where daytime temperatures are relatively low, were the most preferred microhabitat for butterflies. Open forests had greater species diversity, indicating the critical significance of an open canopy for butterflies. Though riparian forests need greater attention concerning butterfly distribution, maintaining open and dense forests are crucial for preserving butterfly diversity.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110220
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 221: Climate Change Skeptics’ Environmental
Concerns and Support for Clean Energy Policy: A Case Study of the US
Pacific Northwest
Authors: Dilshani Sarathchandra, Kristin Haltinner
First page: 221
Abstract: Resistance to clean energy policy in the United States stems partly from public hesitancy and skepticism toward anthropogenic climate change. This article examines self-declared climate change skeptics’ views of clean energy policy along a continuum of skeptical thought, spanning from epistemic denial to attribution doubt. To perform this, we use data from an online survey administered in the US Pacific Northwest and a series of pilot interviews conducted with skeptics in the same region. Results reveal that skeptics’ support for clean energy policy is consistently linked with their environmental concern across the skepticism continuum. Conspiracy ideation and distrust in science lead to a reduction in support. However, the positive effect of environmental concern trumps the effects of these beliefs. Important and hopeful implications of these findings for climate change communication and policy are discussed.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110221
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 222: Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of
Georgian Hydrology under Future Climate Change Scenarios
Authors: Aashutosh Aryal, Rieks Bosch, Venkataraman Lakshmi
First page: 222
Abstract: The Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is a systematic process used to identify gaps in regional climate adaptation strategies. The CRVA method assesses regional vulnerability, adaptation capacity, exposure, and sensitivity to climate change to support improved adaptation policies. This CRVA study assesses Georgia’s climate exposure, geographic sensitivity, and socio-economic sensitivity by focusing on the impacts of climate change on regional hydrology. The projected change in climate extreme indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), is assessed against the 1961–1990 baseline under future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. These indices encompass various climate factors such as the maximum daily temperature, warmth duration, total precipitation, heavy and extreme precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, and consecutive drought duration. This evaluation helps us understand the potential climate exposure impacts on Georgia. The climate-induced geographic sensitivity is examined based on water stress, drought risk, and changes in soil productivity using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The climate-induced socio-economic sensitivity is determined using the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP), Human Development Index, Education Index, and population density. The highest vulnerability to climate change was found in the Kakheti and Kvemo Kartli regions, with the vulnerability index values ranging from 6 to 15, followed by Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Samtskhe–Javakheti, and Shida Kartli with vulnerability index values ranging from 2 to 8. The location of these regions upstream of the Alazani-Iori, Khrami-Debeda, and Mktvari river basins indicates that the country’s water resources are vulnerable to climate change impacts in the future under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110222
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 223: Regional to Mesoscale Influences of Climate
Indices on Tornado Variability
Authors: Cooper P. Corey, Jason C. Senkbeil
First page: 223
Abstract: Tornadoes present an undisputable danger to communities throughout the United States. Despite this known risk, there is a limited understanding of how tornado frequency varies spatially at the mesoscale across county or city area domains. Furthermore, while previous studies have examined the relationships between various climate indices and continental or regional tornado frequency, little research has examined their influence at a smaller scale. This study examines the relationships between various climate indices and regional tornado frequency alongside the same relationships at the mesoscale in seven cities with anomalous tornado patterns. The results of a correlation analysis and generalized linear modeling show common trends between the regions and cities. The strength of the relationships varied by region, but, overall, the ENSO had the greatest influence on tornado frequency, followed in order by the PNA, AO, NAO, MJO, and PDO. However, future research is critical for understanding how the effects of climate indices on tornado frequency vary at different spatial scales, or whether other factors are responsible for the atypical tornado rates in certain cities.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-04
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110223
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 224: Time Series Homogenization with ACMANT:
Comparative Testing of Two Recent Versions in Large-Size Synthetic
Temperature Datasets
Authors: Peter Domonkos
First page: 224
Abstract: Homogenization of climatic time series aims to remove non-climatic biases which come from the technical changes in climate observations. The method comparison tests of the Spanish MULTITEST project (2015–2017) showed that ACMANT was likely the most accurate homogenization method available at that time, although the tested ACMANTv4 version gave suboptimal results when the test data included synchronous breaks for several time series. The technique of combined time series comparison was introduced to ACMANTv5 to better treat this specific problem. Recently performed tests confirm that ACMANTv5 adequately treats synchronous inhomogeneities, but the accuracy has slightly worsened in some other cases. The results for a known daily temperature test dataset for four U.S. regions show that the residual errors after homogenization may be larger with ACMANTv5 than with ACMANTv4. Further tests were performed to learn more about the efficiencies of ACMANTv4 and ACMANTv5 and to find solutions for the problems occurring with the new version. Planned changes in ACMANTv5 are presented in the paper along with related test results. The overall results indicate that the combined time series comparison can be kept in ACMANT, but smaller networks should be generated in the automatic networking process of the method. To improve further the homogenization methods and to obtain more reliable and more solid knowledge about their accuracies, more synthetic test datasets mimicking the true spatio-temporal structures of real climatic data are needed.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110224
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 225: Examining the Spatiotemporal Changes in the
Annual, Seasonal, and Daily Rainfall Climatology of Puerto Rico
Authors: José Javier Hernández Ayala, Rafael Méndez Tejeda
First page: 225
Abstract: This study explores spatial and temporal changes in the rainfall climatology of Puerto Rico in order to identify areas where annual, seasonal or daily precipitation is increasing, decreasing, or remaining normal. Total annual, seasonal, and daily rainfall were retrieved from 23 historical rain gauges with consistent data for the 1956–2021 period. Mann–Kendall trend tests were done on the annual and seasonal rainfall series, and percentage change differences between two different climatologies (1956–1987 and 1988–2021) were calculated. Most of the stations did not exhibit statistically significant annual or seasonal trends in average rainfall. However, of the sites that did experience changes, most of them had statistically significant decreasing trends in mean precipitation. The annual, dry, and early wet season had more sites with negative trends when compared with positive trends, especially in the northwestern and southeastern region of the island. The late wet season was the only period with more sites showing statistically significant trends when compared with negative trends, specifically in the northern region of the island. Results for daily events show that extreme rainfall occurrences have generally decreased, especially in the western region of the island. When the 1955–1987 and 1988–2022 climatologies are compared, the results for annual average rainfall show two main regions with mean precipitation reductions, and those are the northwestern and southeastern areas of the island. The dry season was the only period with more areas exhibiting percentage increases in mean rainfall when the two climatologies were analyzed. The early and late wet season months exhibited similar patterns, with more areas on the island showing negative percentage decreases in average seasonal precipitation. The best predictor for the decreasing annual and seasonal trend in the northwest was a higher sea level pressure, and the variable that best explained the increasing trend in the northeast was total precipitable water.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110225
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 226: A GIS-Based Assessment of Flood Hazard
through Track Records over the 1886–2022 Period in Greece
Authors: Niki Evelpidou, Constantinos Cartalis, Anna Karkani, Giannis Saitis, Kostas Philippopoulos, Evangelos Spyrou
First page: 226
Abstract: This paper addresses the riverine flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 136 years (i.e., during the 1886–2022 period), focusing, amongst others, on the case of urban floods. The flood record of various sites of the country has been collected and analyzed to determine their spatial and temporal distribution. Greece is a country where flood data and records are very scarce. Therefore, as there is not an integrated catalog of Greek floods spanning from the 19th century to recently, this is the first attempt to create an integrated catalog for Greece. The sources used include published papers, local and regional newspapers and public bodies (mainly the Ministry of Environment and Energy and the official websites of Greek municipalities). Additionally, the main factors responsible for their occurrence have been issued, regarding the country’s climatic, geological and geomorphological setting, as well as human interventions. In addition, the atmospheric circulation driving factors of floods are assessed via an unsupervised neural network approach (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps). Based on the results of this research, an online GIS-based database has been created, depicting the areas that have been struck by riverine floods in Greece. By clicking a flood event in the online database, one can view several characteristics, depending on data availability, such as duration and height of the rainfall that caused them and number of fatalities. Long-term trends of mean and extremes seasonal precipitation also linked to the spatial distribution of floods. Our analysis shows that urban floods are a very large portion of the overall flood record, and they mainly occur in the two large urban centers, Athens and Thessaloniki, as well as near large rivers such as Pineios. Autumn months and mainly November are the periods with higher flood hazards, based on past records and cyclonic atmospheric circulation constitutes the principal driving factor. Our results indicate that a flood catalog at national level is of fundamental importance, as it can provide valuable statistical insights regarding seasonality, spatial distribution of floods, etc., while it can also be used by stakeholders and researchers for flood management and flood risk analysis and modelling.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110226
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 227: Co-Cultivation and Matching of Early- and
Late-Maturing Pearl Millet Varieties to Sowing Windows Can Enhance
Climate-Change Adaptation in Semi-Arid Sub-Saharan Agroecosystems
Authors: Simon Kamwele Awala, Kudakwashe Hove, Johanna Shekupe Valombola, Helena Nalitende Nafuka, Evans Kamwi Simasiku, Barthlomew Chataika, Lydia Ndinelao Horn, Simon Angombe, Levi S. M. Akundabweni, Osmund D. Mwandemele
First page: 227
Abstract: In semi-arid regions, climate change has affected crop growing season length and sowing time, potentially causing low yield of the rainfed staple crop pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) and food insecurity among smallholder farmers. In this study, we used 1994–2023 rainfall data from Namibia’s semi-arid North-Central Region (NCR), receiving November–April summer rainfall, to analyze rainfall patterns and trends and their implications on the growing season to propose climate adaptation options for the region. The results revealed high annual and monthly rainfall variabilities, with nonsignificant negative trends for November–February rainfalls, implying a shortening growing season. Furthermore, we determined the effects of sowing date on grain yields of the early-maturing Okashana-2 and local landrace Kantana pearl millet varieties and the optimal sowing window for the region, using data from a two-year split-plot field experiment conducted at the University of Namibia—Ogongo Campus, NCR, during the rainy season. Cubic polynomial regression models were applied to grain-yield data sets to predict grain production for any sowing date between January and March. Both varieties produced the highest grain yields under January sowings, with Kantana exhibiting a higher yield potential than Okashana-2. Kantana, sown by 14 January, had a yield advantage of up to 36% over Okashana-2, but its yield gradually reduced with delays in sowing. Okashana-2 exhibited higher yield stability across January sowings, surpassing Kantana’s yields by up to 9.4% following the 14 January sowing. We determined the pearl millet optimal sowing window for the NCR to be from 1–7 and 1–21 January for Kantana and Okashana-2, respectively. These results suggest that co-cultivation of early and late pearl millet varieties and growing early-maturing varieties under delayed seasons could stabilize grain production in northern Namibia and enhance farmers’ climate adaptation. Policymakers for semi-arid agricultural regions could utilize this information to adjust local seed systems and extension strategies.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110227
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 228: Managing Extreme Rainfall and Flooding
Events: A Case Study of the 20 July 2021 Zhengzhou Flood in China
Authors: Xiaofan Zhao, Huimin Li, Qin Cai, Ye Pan, Ye Qi
First page: 228
Abstract: On 20 July 2021, an extreme rainstorm battered Zhengzhou in China’s Henan Province, killing 302 people, including 14 individuals who drowned in a subway tunnel and 6 who drowned in a road tunnel. As the global climate warms, extreme weather events similar to the Zhengzhou flood will become more frequent, with increasingly catastrophic consequences for society. Taking a case study-based approach by focusing on the record-breaking Zhengzhou flood, this paper examines the governance capacity of inland cities in North China for managing extreme precipitation and flooding events from the perspective of the flood risk management process. Based on in-depth case analysis, our paper hypothesizes that inland cities in North China still have low risk perceptions of extreme weather events, which was manifested in insufficient pre-disaster preparation and prevention, poor risk communication, and slow emergency response. Accordingly, it is recommended that inland cities update their risk perceptions of extreme rainfall and flooding events, which are no longer low-probability, high-impact “black swans”, but turning into high-probability, high-impact “gray rhinos.” In particular, cities must make sufficient preparation for extreme weather events by revising contingency plans and strengthening their implementation, improving risk communication of meteorological warnings, and synchronizing emergency response with meteorological warnings.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110228
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 229: Flood Hazard Assessment in Australian
Tropical Cyclone-Prone Regions
Authors: Michael Kaspi, Yuriy Kuleshov
First page: 229
Abstract: This study investigated tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding in coastal regions of Australia due to the impact of TC Debbie in 2017 utilising a differential evolution-optimised random forest to model flood susceptibility in the region of Bowen, Airlie Beach, and Mackay in North Queensland. Model performance was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve, which showed an area under the curve of 0.925 and an overall accuracy score of 80%. The important flood-influencing factors (FIFs) were investigated using both feature importance scores and the SHapely Additive exPlanations method (SHAP), creating a flood hazard map of the region and a map of SHAP contributions. It was found that the elevation, slope, and normalised difference vegetation index were the most important FIFs overall. However, in some regions, the distance to the river and the stream power index dominated for a similar flood hazard susceptibility outcome. Validation using SHAP to test the physical reasoning of the model confirmed the reliability of the flood hazard map. This study shows that explainable artificial intelligence allows for improved interpretation of model predictions, assisting decision-makers in better understanding machine learning-based flood hazard assessments and ultimately aiding in mitigating adverse impacts of flooding in coastal regions affected by TCs.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110229
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 230: Temporal Changes in Tourists’
Climate-Based Comfort in the Southeastern Coastal Region of Spain
Authors: David Espín-Sánchez, Jorge Olcina-Cantos, Carmelo Conesa-García
First page: 230
Abstract: In the context of climate change, where the average temperature has risen in recent decades on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, bioclimatic indicators show an increase in thermal discomfort. This is especially relevant in regions with a clear focus on mass and seasonal sun and beach tourism, with a large number of tourists experiencing discomfort in hot and humid summer environments. The research analyses the temporal evolution (1967–2022) of the coasts of the provinces of Alicante and Murcia (Spain) using the Climate Comfort Index (CCI), divided into four different regions. Used are 14 coastal meteorological observatories divided into four regions. Trend analysis was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MKT) and Theil–Sen (TSE) tests. The results revealed a loss of climate comfort during the summer season (−0.3 to −0.4/decade), as well as an expansion of the warm period toward June and early September, with an increase of 38.7 days in “hot” thermal comfort. The increase in thermal discomfort in the summer is influenced by an increase in average temperature (0.5 to 0.7 °C/decade) and a reduction in the average relative humidity (−1.0 to −2.1%/decade) and wind speed (−0.2 to −0.9 km/h/decade). In the last 22 years (2000–2022), decreases (p  ≤ 0.05) have been recorded in July and September (−0.2 to −0.4/decade), reaching “excessive heat” climatic comfort thresholds for the first time. Finally, there has been an increase in thermal comfort in winter, especially during December in recent years (2000–2022).
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-11-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11110230
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 11 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 197: Global Riverine Archaeology and Cultural
Heritage: Flood-Risk Management and Adaptation for the Anthropogenic
Climate Change Crisis
Authors: Bethune Carmichael, Cathy Daly, Sandra Fatorić, Mark Macklin, Sue McIntyre-Tamwoy, Witiya Pittungnapoo
First page: 197
Abstract: Significant riverine archaeological sites around the world are vulnerable to flooding associated with climate change. However, identifying sites most at risk is not straightforward. We critically review the parameters used in 22 published analyses of risk to riverine archaeology from climate change (ARRACC). Covering 17 countries globally, the ARRACC’s risk parameters are highly variable. Proximity to rivers and projected changes to extreme flood frequency are the most commonly employed. However, to be robust, future ARRACC should select from a wider range of hazard parameters, including channel mobility/type, erosion/sedimentation patterns, land use and engineering works, as well as parameters for site sensitivity to flooding and heritage significance. To assist in this, we propose a basic field survey for ARRACC, to be treated primarily as a conceptual checklist or as a starting point for a bespoke ARRACC method adapted for a particular river and the objectives of local stakeholders. The framework proposes a pathway to optimal prioritisation of sites most in need of adaptation so that scarce management resources can be targeted.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100197
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 198: Assessing the Hydrological Impacts of Climate
Change on the Upper Benue River Basin in Nigeria: Trends, Relationships,
and Mitigation Strategies
Authors: Andrew Ezra, Kai Zhu, Lóránt Dénes Dávid, Barnabas Nuhu Yakubu, Krisztian Ritter
First page: 198
Abstract: The impact of climate change on river systems is a multifaceted threat to the environment, affecting various aspects of ecosystems. The Upper Benue River Basin (UBRB) in Nigeria is an area of concern, as river flow and water levels are crucial for irrigation and transportation. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the UBRB using data on rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, river discharge, and water level. Trend, correlation, and stepwise regression analyses were conducted using Excel and SPSS 20 to analyze the data. The results indicate that the UBRB is experiencing climate change, as evidenced by annual decreases in rainfall and relative humidity and increases in maximum and minimum temperatures. Specifically, mean annual rainfall and relative humidity exhibit a negative trend, while the maximum and minimum temperature exhibit a positive trend. Furthermore, we found that rainfall and relative humidity have a significant positive relationship with river discharge and level (p < 0.01), whereas maximum temperature and wind speed have a significant negative relationship with water discharge and level. We also identified wind speed and rainfall as the critical climatic indices influencing river discharge, accounting for 21.7% of the variation in river discharge within the basin (R2 = 21.7). Based on these findings, we conclude that increases in rainfall and relative humidity will lead to significant increases in river discharge and level, while increases in wind speed and maximum temperature will decrease river discharge and level. Moreover, wind speed and rainfall are the critical climatic indices influencing river discharge, whereas relative humidity, wind speed, and rainfall are the critical climatic indices influencing water level. Thus, we recommend constructing more reservoirs (dams) to mitigate the negative trend in rainfall and encourage climate change control, such as afforestation among the population of the region. These findings have important implications for understanding the impact of climate change on river systems and developing effective strategies to mitigate its effects.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-09-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100198
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 199: Dynamic and Non-Linear Analysis of the Impact
of Diurnal Temperature Range on Road Traffic Accidents
Authors: Yuo-Hsien Shiau, Su-Fen Yang, Rishan Adha, Giia-Sheun Peng, Syamsiyatul Muzayyanah
First page: 199
Abstract: The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a significant indicator of climate change, and a previous study has shown its impact on human health. However, research investigating the influence of DTR on road traffic accidents is scarce. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the impact of changes in DTR on road traffic accidents. The present study employs two methods to address the complexities of road accidents. Firstly, panel data from 20 cities and counties in Taiwan are utilized, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed for estimation. Secondly, distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are used with quasi-Poisson regression analysis to assess the DTR’s lagged and non-linear relationships with road accidents using time series data from six Taiwanese metropolitan cities. The study results indicate that a decrease of 1 °C in DTR raises long-term road traffic accidents by 17.1%. In the short term, the impact of declining DTR on road accidents is around 4%. Moreover, the effect of low DTR values differs in each city in Taiwan. Three cities had high levels of road accidents, as evidenced by an increase in the relative risk value; two cities had moderate responses; and one city had a relatively lower response compared to high DTR values. Finally, based on the cumulative relative risk estimations, the study found that a low diurnal temperature range is linked to a high road traffic accident rate, especially during the lag-specific 0–5 months. The findings of this study offer fresh evidence of the negative impact of climate factor on road traffic accidents.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100199
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 200: Machine Learning for Simulation of Urban Heat
Island Dynamics Based on Large-Scale Meteorological Conditions
Authors: Mikhail Varentsov, Mikhail Krinitskiy, Victor Stepanenko
First page: 200
Abstract: This study considers the problem of approximating the temporal dynamics of the urban-rural temperature difference (ΔT) in Moscow megacity using machine learning (ML) models and predictors characterizing large-scale weather conditions. We compare several ML models, including random forests, gradient boosting, support vectors, and multi-layer perceptrons. These models, trained on a 21-year (2001–2021) dataset, successfully capture the diurnal, synoptic-scale, and seasonal variations of the observed ΔT based on predictors derived from rural weather observations or ERA5 reanalysis. Evaluation scores are further improved when using both sources of predictors simultaneously and involving additional features characterizing their temporal dynamics (tendencies and moving averages). Boosting models and support vectors demonstrate the best quality, with RMSE of 0.7 K and R2 > 0.8 on average over 21 years. For three selected summer and winter months, the best ML models forced only by reanalysis outperform the comprehensive hydrodynamic mesoscale model COSMO, supplied by an urban canopy scheme with detailed city-descriptive parameters and forced by the same reanalysis. However, for a longer period (1977–2023), the ML models are not able to fully reproduce the observed trend of ΔT increase, confirming that this trend is largely (by 60–70%) driven by megacity growth. Feature importance assessment indicates the atmospheric boundary layer height as the most important control factor for the ΔT and highlights the relevance of temperature tendencies as additional predictors.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100200
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 201: Assessment of Climate Change Impact on
Hydropower Generation: A Case Study for Três Marias Power Plant in
Brazil
Authors: Benedito Cláudio da da Silva, Rebeca Meloni Virgílio, Luiz Augusto Horta Nogueira, Paola do Nascimento Silva, Filipe Otávio Passos, Camila Coelho Welerson
First page: 201
Abstract: Study region: The Três Marias 396 MW power plant located on the São Francisco River in Brazil. Study focus: Hydropower generation is directly and indirectly affected by climate change. It is also a relevant source of energy for electricity generation in many countries. Thus, methodologies need to be developed to assess the impacts of future climate scenarios. This is essential for effective planning in the energy sector. Energy generation at the Três Marias power plant was estimated using the water balance of the reservoir and the future stream flow projections to the power plant, for three analysis periods: FUT1 (2011–2040); FUT2 (2041–2070); and FUT3 (2071–2100). The MGB-IPH hydrological model was used to assimilate precipitation and other climatic variables from the regional Eta climatic model, via global models HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show considerable reductions in stream flows and consequently, energy generation simulations for the hydropower plant were also reduced. The average power variations for the Eta-MIROC5 model were the mildest, around 7% and 20%, while minimum variations for the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model were approximately 35%, and almost 65% in the worst-case scenario. These results reinforce the urgent need to consider climate change in strategic Brazilian energy planning.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100201
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 202: Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change:
A Scoping Review
Authors: Elena Grigorieva, Alexandra Livenets, Elena Stelmakh
First page: 202
Abstract: Since agricultural productivity is weather and climate-related and fundamentally depends on climate stability, climate change poses many diverse challenges to agricultural activities. The objective of this study is to review adaptation strategies and interventions in countries around the world proposed for implementation to reduce the impact of climate change on agricultural development and production at various spatial scales. A literature search was conducted in June–August 2023 using electronic databases Google Scholar and Scientific Electronic Library eLibrary.RU, seeking the key words “climate”, “climate change”, and “agriculture adaptation”. Sixty-five studies were identified and selected for the review. The negative impacts of climate change are expressed in terms of reduced crop yields and crop area, impacts on biotic and abiotic factors, economic losses, increased labor, and equipment costs. Strategies and actions for agricultural adaptation that can be emphasized at local and regional levels are: crop varieties and management, including land use change and innovative breeding techniques; water and soil management, including agronomic practices; farmer training and knowledge transfer; at regional and national levels: financial schemes, insurance, migration, and culture; agricultural and meteorological services; and R&D, including the development of early warning systems. Adaptation strategies depend on the local context, region, or country; limiting the discussion of options and measures to only one type of approach—"top-down” or “bottom-up”—may lead to unsatisfactory solutions for those areas most affected by climate change but with few resources to adapt to it. Biodiversity-based, or “ecologically intensive” agriculture, and climate-smart agriculture are low-impact strategies with strong ecological modernization of agriculture, aiming to sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes while addressing the interrelated challenges of climate change and food security. Some adaptation measures taken in response to climate change may not be sufficient and may even increase vulnerability to climate change. Future research should focus on adaptation options to explore the readiness of farmers and society to adopt new adaptation strategies and the constraints they face, as well as the main factors affecting them, in order to detect maladaptation before it occurs.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100202
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 203: Assessing the Emissions Related to European
Households’ Expenditures and Their Impact on Achieving Carbon
Neutrality
Authors: Ilaria Perissi, Davide Natalini, Aled Jones
First page: 203
Abstract: The European Green Deal comprises various policy initiatives with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The “Fit for 55 packages” include the Social Climate Fund, which aims to help, among others, vulnerable households and transport users meet the costs of the green energy transition. Thus, analyzing households’ expenditures and the associated carbon emissions is crucial to achieving a net-zero society. In the present study, we combine scenarios of households’ expenditures according to the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose with economic decoupling scenarios to assess, for the first time, the European carbon budget allocation on a consumption basis. Expenditure projections based on socioeconomic scenarios were calculated using the Bayesian structural time series, and the associated emissions were estimated through the greenhouse gas intensity of the Gross Domestic Product. The model can be used to report the carbon budget of households and monitor the effectiveness of the measures funded by the Social Climate Fund. However, the emissions burden obtained by means of averaged greenhouse gas intensity of Gross Domestic Product results in a rough approximation of outcomes, and more accurate indicators should be developed across the member states.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100203
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 204: The Effect of Climate Variability on
Cultivated Crops’ Yield and Farm Income in Chiang Mai Province,
Thailand
Authors: Yadanar Kyaw, Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen, Ekbordin Winijkul, Wenchao Xue, Salvatore G. P. Virdis
First page: 204
Abstract: Agriculture, entwined with climatic conditions, plays a pivotal role in Thailand’s sustenance and economy. This study aimed to examine the trends of climate variability and its correlation with crop yields and social and farm factors affecting farm net income in Chiang Mai province, Thailand. Time series climate data (2002–2020) on temperature and rainfall and yields were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation to investigate the trends and their changes. The Pearson correlation was used to assess the association between climate variability and cultivated crop yields, and multiple linear regression was used to detect the factors influencing the farm net income. The findings show that the total annual rainfall showed an unchanged trend, but the annual temperature increased over time. Higher temperature negatively impacted longan yield but positively affected maize, with no significant impact on rice yield. The rainfall trend had no effect on crop yields. Despite declining trends in some cultivated crops’ yield, farm net income was unaffected by individual crop types. Farm income relied on cumulative output and geographic location. This research emphasizes the need for integrating climate data and forecasting models considering agronomic and socio-economic factors and crop suitability assessments for specific regions into adaptation policies and practice.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-11
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100204
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 205: Assessing the Reliability of Global Carbon
Flux Dataset Compared to Existing Datasets and Their Spatiotemporal
Characteristics
Authors: Zili Xiong, Wei Shangguan, Vahid Nourani, Qingliang Li, Xingjie Lu, Lu Li, Feini Huang, Ye Zhang, Wenye Sun, Hua Yuan, Xueyan Li
First page: 205
Abstract: Land carbon fluxes play a critical role in ecosystems, and acquiring a comprehensive global database of carbon fluxes is essential for understanding the Earth’s carbon cycle. The primary methods of obtaining the spatial distribution of land carbon fluxes include utilizing machine learning models based on in situ measurements, estimating through satellite remote sensing, and simulating ecosystem models. Recently, an innovative machine learning product known as the Global Carbon Flux Dataset (GCFD) has been released. In this study, we assessed the reliability of the GCFD by comparing it with existing data products, including two machine learning products (FLUXCOM and NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies)), two ecosystem model products (TRENDY and EC-LUE (eddy covariance–light use efficiency model)), and one remote sensing product (Global Land Surface Satellite), on both site and global scales. Our findings indicate that, in terms of average absolute difference, the spatial distribution of the GCFD is most similar to the NIES product, albeit with slightly larger discrepancies compared to the other two types of products. When using site observations as the benchmark, gross primary production (GPP), respiration of ecosystem (RECO), and net ecosystem exchange of machine learning products exhibit higher R2 (ranging from 0.57 to 0.85, 0.53–0.79, and 0.31–0.70, respectively) compared to model products and remote sensing products. Furthermore, we analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon fluxes in various regions. The results demonstrate an upward trend in both GPP and RECO over the past two decades, while NEE exhibits an opposite trend. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical regions, where higher GPP is observed in tropical, subtropical, and oceanic climate zones. Additionally, two remote sensing variables that influence changes in carbon fluxes, i.e., fraction absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and leaf area index, exhibit relatively consistent spatial and temporal characteristics. Overall, our study can provide valuable insights into different types of carbon flux products and contribute to understanding the general features of global carbon fluxes.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-11
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100205
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 206: The Response of Daily Carbon Dioxide and
Water Vapor Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Temperate
and Boreal Forests
Authors: Daria Gushchina, Maria Tarasova, Elizaveta Satosina, Irina Zheleznova, Ekaterina Emelianova, Ravil Gibadullin, Alexander Osipov, Alexander Olchev
First page: 206
Abstract: Forest ecosystems in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are significantly affected by frequent extreme weather events. How different forest ecosystems respond to these changes is a major challenge. This study aims to assess differences in the response of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and latent heat flux (LE) between different boreal and temperate ecosystems and the atmosphere to extreme weather events (e.g., anomalous temperature and precipitation). In order to achieve the main objective of our study, we used available reanalysis data and existing information on turbulent atmospheric fluxes and meteorological parameters from the global and regional FLUXNET databases. The analysis of NEE and LE responses to high/low temperature and precipitation revealed a large diversity of flux responses in temperate and boreal forests, mainly related to forest type, geographic location, regional climate conditions, and plant species composition. During the warm and cold seasons, the extremely high temperatures usually lead to increased CO2 release in all forest types, with the largest response in coniferous forests. The decreasing air temperatures that occur during the warm season mostly lead to higher CO2 uptake, indicating more favorable conditions for photosynthesis at relatively low summer temperatures. The extremely low temperatures in the cold season are not accompanied by significant NEE anomalies. The response of LE to temperature variations does not change significantly throughout the year, with higher temperatures leading to LE increases and lower temperatures leading to LE reductions. The immediate response to heavy precipitation is an increase in CO2 release and a decrease in evaporation. The cumulative effect of heavy precipitations is opposite to the immediate effect in the warm season and results in increased CO2 uptake due to intensified photosynthesis in living plants under sufficient soil moisture conditions.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100206
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 207: Autumn Surface Wind Trends over California
during 1979–2020
Authors: Callum F. Thompson, Charles Jones, Leila Carvalho, Anna T. Trugman, Donald D. Lucas, Daisuke Seto, Kevin Varga
First page: 207
Abstract: Surface winds over California can compound fire risk during autumn, yet their long-term trends in the face of decadal warming are less clear compared to other climate variables like temperature, drought, and snowmelt. To determine where and how surface winds are changing most, this article uses multiple reanalyses and Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) to calculate autumn 10 m wind speed trends during 1979–2020. Reanalysis trends show statistically significant increases in autumn night-time easterlies on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Although downslope windstorms are frequent to this region, trends instead appear to result from elevated gradients in warming between California and the interior continent. The result is a sharper horizontal temperature gradient over the Sierra crest and adjacent free atmosphere above the foothills, strengthening the climatological nocturnal katabatic wind. While RAWS records show broad agreement, their trend is likely influenced by year-to-year changes in the number of observations.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100207
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 208: Modeling the Effects of Local Atmospheric
Conditions on the Thermodynamics of Sobradinho Lake, Northeast Brazil
Authors: Eliseu Oliveira Afonso, Sin Chan Chou
First page: 208
Abstract: The objective of this work was to study climate variability and its impacts on the temperature of Sobradinho Lake in Northeast Brazil. Surface weather station data and lake measurements were used in this study. The model applied in this work is FLake, which is a one-dimensional model used to simulate the vertical temperature profile of freshwater lakes. First, the climate variability around Sobradinho Lake was analyzed. Observations showed a reduction in precipitation during 1991–2020 compared to 1981–2010. To study climate variability impacts on Sobradinho Lake, the years 2013, 2015, and 2020 were selected to characterize normal, dry, and rainy years, respectively. In addition, the months of January, April, July, and October were analyzed for rainy months, rainy–dry transitions, dry months, and dry–rainy transitions. Dry years showed higher incoming solar radiation at the surface and, consequently, higher 2 m air temperatures. A characteristic of the normal years was more intense surface winds. October presented the highest incoming solar radiation, the highest air temperature, and the most intense winds at the surface. The lowest incoming solar radiation at the surface was observed in January, and the lightest wind was observed in April. To assess the effects of these atmospheric conditions on the thermodynamics of Sobradinho Lake, the FLake model was forced using station observation data. The thermal amplitude of the lake surface temperature (LST) varied by less than 1 °C during the four months. This result was validated against surface lake observations. FLake was able to accurately reproduce the diurnal cycle variation in sensible heat fluxes (H), latent heat fluxes, and momentum fluxes. The sensible heat flux depends directly on the difference between the LST and the air temperature. During daytime, however, Flake simulated negative values of H, and during nighttime, positive values. The highest values of latent heat flux were simulated during the day, with the maximum value was simulated at 12:00 noon. The momentum flux simulated a similar pattern, with the maximum values simulated during the day and the minimum values during the night. The FLake model also simulated the deepest mixing layer in the months of July and October. However, our results have limitations due to the lack of observed data to validate the simulations.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100208
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 209: Analysis of the Gálvez–Davison
Index for the Forecasting Formation and Evolution of Convective Clouds in
the Tropics: Western Cuba
Authors: Tahimy Fuentes-Alvarez, Pedro M. González-Jardines, José C. Fernández-Alvarez, Laura de la Torre, Juan A. Añel
First page: 209
Abstract: The Gálvez–Davison Index (GDI) is an atmospheric stability index recently developed to improve the prediction of thunderstorms and shallower types of moist convection in the tropics. Because of its novelty, its use for tropical regions remains largely unexplored. Cuba is a region that suffers extreme weather events, such as tropical storms and hurricanes, some of them worsened by climate change. This research analyzes the effectiveness of the GDI in detecting the potential for convective cloud development, using forecast data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for Western Cuba. To accomplish this, here, we evaluated the performance of the GDI in ten study cases from the dry and wet seasons. As part of our study, we researched how GDI correlates with brightness temperatures (BTs) measured using GOES-16. In addition, the GDI results with the WRF model are compared with results using the Global Forecast System (GFS). Our results show a high correlation between the GDI and BT, concluding that the GDI is a robust tool for forecasting both synoptic and mesoscale convective phenomena over the region studied. In addition, the GDI is able to adequately forecast stability conditions. Finally, the GDI values computed from the WRF model perform much better than those from the GFS, probably because of the greater horizontal resolution in the WRF model.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-18
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100209
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 210: Changing Climatic Conditions in Czechia
Require Adaptation Measures in Agriculture
Authors: Martin Mozny, Lenka Hajkova, Vojtech Vlach, Veronika Ouskova, Adela Musilova
First page: 210
Abstract: Changes in climatic conditions increase risks associated with crop production in certain regions. Early detection of these changes enables the implementation of suitable adaptation measures in the local area, thereby stabilising agricultural production. Our analysis shows a significant shift in climatic conditions in Czechia between 1961 and 2020. We examined the changes in observed temperature conditions, precipitation distribution, drought occurrences, and frost incidents at a high resolution (0.5 × 0.5 km). The outputs show a significant increase in air temperatures and drought occurrence. Temperature totals above 5 °C in 1991–2020 were 15% higher than in 1961–1990. Furthermore, the relative change in totals above 10 °C was 26% after 1991. Over the last 30 years, drought incidence was four times more frequent than in 1961–1990, particularly in spring. In contrast, no significant changes in the distribution of precipitation occurred, and there was a slight decrease in the probability of frost during the growing season. Ongoing climate change brings warmer and drier conditions to higher-altitude regions in Czechia. Assessing climatic conditions on a global scale is less precise for relatively small and topographically diverse countries like Czechia due to coarse resolution. Therefore, a high-resolution analysis is more appropriate for these countries.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100210
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 211: Proposal of an Agricultural Vulnerability
Stochastic Model for the Rural Population of the Northeastern Region of
Brazil
Authors: Bruce Kelly da Nóbrega Silva, Rafaela Lisboa Costa, Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva, Mário Henrique Guilherme dos Santos Vanderlei, Helder José Farias da Silva, Jório Bezerra Cabral Júnior, Djailson Silva da Costa Júnior, George Ulguim Pedra, Aldrin Martin Pérez-Marin, Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva
First page: 211
Abstract: Agriculture is the world’s main economic activity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this activity is expected to be impacted by drought. In the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB), most agricultural activity is carried out by small rural communities. Local socio-economic data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques in this study to determine agricultural sensitivity to drought events (SeA) and agricultural vulnerability to drought extremes (VaED). The climate data used to develop the risk factor (Rdrought) were the drought indicator with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the average number of drought disasters from 1991 to 2012. Conditional probability theory was applied to determine agricultural vulnerability to drought extremes (VaED). Characterization of the risk of agricultural drought using the proposed methodology showed that the rainy season presents high risk values in the central region, covering areas of the states of Ceará, Piauí, Pernambuco and Rio Grande do Norte, as well as all areas of the semi-arid region. The risk ranged from high to medium. The results also indicated that part of the south of Bahia and the west of Pernambuco have areas of extreme agro-climatic sensitivity. Consequently, these states have an extreme degree of climate vulnerability during the region’s rainy season.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100211
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 212: Homogenous Climatic Regions for Targeting
Green Water Management Technologies in the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia
Authors: Degefie Tibebe, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ermias Teferi, Greg O’Donnell, Claire Walsh
First page: 212
Abstract: Spatiotemporal climate variability is a leading environmental constraint to the rain-fed agricultural productivity and food security of communities in the Abbay basin and elsewhere in Ethiopia. The previous one-size-fits-all approach to soil and water management technology targeting did not effectively address climate-induced risks to rain-fed agriculture. This study, therefore, delineates homogenous climatic regions and identifies climate-induced risks to rain-fed agriculture that are important to guide decisions and the selection of site-specific technologies for green water management in the Abbay basin. The k-means spatial clustering method was employed to identify homogenous climatic regions in the study area, while the Elbow method was used to determine an optimal number of climate clusters. The k-means clustering used the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) daily rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, and other derived climate variables that include daily rainfall amount, length of growing period (LGP), rainfall onset and cessation dates, rainfall intensity, temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil moisture, and AsterDEM to define climate regions. Accordingly, 12 climate clusters or regions were identified and mapped for the basin. Clustering a given geographic region into homogenous climate classes is useful to accurately identify and target locally relevant green water management technologies to effectively address local-scale climate-induced risks. This study also provided a methodological framework that can be used in the other river basins of Ethiopia and, indeed, elsewhere.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-10-23
DOI: 10.3390/cli11100212
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 10 (2023)
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