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- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 115: Climate Change Knowledge and Perception among
Farming Households in Nigeria
Authors: Mustapha Yakubu Madaki, Steffen Muench, Harald Kaechele, Miroslava Bavorova
First page: 115
Abstract: Nigeria is committed to achieving a 20% unconditional and 45% conditional reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 through a strong focus on awareness of and preparedness for climate change impacts via the mobilization of local communities for climate change mitigation actions. As land cover changes and forestry contribute 38% and agriculture contributes 13% of the country’s GHGs, farmers are among the stakeholders to be aware of and prepare for climate change mitigations and adaptations. This study assessed the knowledge of agriculturally related practices associated with climate change and its relation to climate change perception. One thousand and eighty (1080) smallholder farmers were interviewed across six agroecological zones (AEZs) of Nigeria using a structured questionnaire. The results revealed that most farmers know that deforestation and land clearance by bush burning contributes to climate change. However, many farmers did not know that methane emissions from livestock (enteric fermentation) can cause climate change. Our results further show that the farmers’ perception of climate change is associated with climate change knowledge. Factors affecting the climate change knowledge of farmers include information received from government extension services, environmental NGOs, and radio, as well as experiencing extreme weather events. Farmers of dry AEZs were more aware and knowledgeable of the agricultural practices contributing to the changing environment. Increased exposure to climate change events thus appears to elevate the knowledge on the topic. Using government services, environmental NGOs, and radio to disseminate climate change information will help further in guiding and shaping farmers’ perceptions towards scientific findings for appropriate actions.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-24
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060115
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 116: De-Sealing Reverses Habitat Decay More Than
Increasing Groundcover Vegetation
Authors: Virginia Thompson Couch, Stefano Salata, Nicel Saygin, Anne Frary, Bertan Arslan
First page: 116
Abstract: Modeling ecosystem services is a growing trend in scientific research, and Nature-based Solutions (NbSs) are increasingly used by land-use planners and environmental designers to achieve improved adaptation to climate change and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change. Predictions of ecological benefits of NbSs are needed early in design to support decision making. In this study, we used ecological analysis to predict the benefits of two NbSs applied to a university masterplan and adjusted our preliminary design strategy according to the first modeling results. Our Area of Interest was the IZTECH campus, which is located in a rural area of the eastern Mediterranean region (Izmir/Turkey). A primary design goal was to improve habitat quality by revitalizing soil. Customized analysis of the Baseline Condition and two NbSs scenarios was achieved by using local values obtained from a high-resolution photogrammetric scan of the catchment to produce flow accumulation and habitat quality indexes. Results indicate that anthropogenic features are the primary cause of habitat decay and that decreasing imperviousness reduces habitat decay significantly more than adding vegetation. This study creates a method of supporting sustainability goals by quickly testing alternative NbSs. The main innovation is demonstrating that early approximation of the ecological benefits of NbSs can inform preliminary design strategy. The proposed model may be calibrated to address specific environmental challenges of a given location and test other forms of NbSs.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060116
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 117: Effects of Extreme Temperature and
Precipitation Events on Daily CO2 Fluxes in the Tropics
Authors: Daria Gushchina, Maria Tarasova, Elizaveta Satosina, Irina Zheleznova, Ekaterina Emelianova, Elena Novikova, Alexander Olchev
First page: 117
Abstract: The effects of anomalous weather conditions (such as extreme temperatures and precipitation) on CO2 flux variability in different tropical ecosystems were assessed using available reanalysis data, as well as information about daily net CO2 fluxes from the global FLUXNET database. A working hypothesis of the study suggests that the response of tropical vegetation can differ depending on local geographical conditions and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies. The results highlighted the large diversity of CO2 flux responses to the fluctuations of temperature and precipitation in tropical ecosystems that may differ significantly from some previously documented relationships (e.g., higher CO2 emission under the drier and hotter weather, higher CO2 uptake under colder and wetter weather conditions). They showed that heavy precipitation mainly leads to the strong intensification of mean daily CO2 release into the atmosphere at almost all stations and in all types of study biomes. For the majority of considered tropical ecosystems, the intensification of daily CO2 emission during cold and wet weather was found, whereas the ecosystems were predominantly served as CO2 sinks from the atmosphere under hot/dry conditions. Such disparate responses suggested that positive and negative temperature and precipitation anomalies influence Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (ER) rates differently that may result in various responses of Net Ecosystem Exchanges (NEE) of CO2 to external impacts. Their responses may also depend on various local biotic and abiotic factors, including plant canopy age and structure, plant biodiversity and plasticity, soil organic carbon and water availability, surface topography, solar radiation fluctuation, etc.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060117
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 118: Changing Water Cycle under a Warming Climate:
Tendencies in the Carpathian Basin
Authors: Imre Miklós Jánosi, Tibor Bíró, Boglárka O. Lakatos, Jason A. C. Gallas, András Szöllosi-Nagy
First page: 118
Abstract: In this mini-review, we present evidence from the vast literature that one essential part of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system that makes life on Earth possible, the water cycle, is exhibiting changes along with many attributes of the global climate. Our starting point is the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC, which appeared in 2021, where the almost monograph-size Chapter 8, with over 1800 references, is devoted entirely to the water cycle. In addition to listing the main observations on the Earth globally, we focus on Europe, particularly on the Carpathian (Pannonian) Basin. We collect plausible explanations of the possible causes behind an observably accelerating and intensifying water cycle. Some authors still suggest that changes in the natural boundary conditions, such as solar irradiance or Earth’s orbital parameters, explain the observations. In contrast, most authors attribute such changes to the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations since the industrial revolution. The hypothesis being tested, and which has already yielded convincing affirmative answers, is that the hydrological cycle intensifies due to anthropogenic impacts. The Carpathian Basin, a part of the Danube watershed, including the sub-basin of the Tisza River, is no exception to these changes. The region is experiencing multiple drivers contributing to alterations in the water cycle, including increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and various human impacts.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060118
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 119: A Relationship between Climate Finance and
Climate Risk: Evidence from the South Asian Region
Authors: Md. Abdul Kaium Masud, Juichiro Sahara, Md. Humayun Kabir
First page: 119
Abstract: South Asia is the most vulnerable region in the context of global warming, climate change, and climate risk. Climate finance is the most useful tool for combating climate challenges worldwide. The study explores the present picture of climate finance in South Asian (SA) countries. The study uses multilateral development bank (MDB), Green Climate Fund (GCF), and Germanwatch supplied data from 2011 to 2021. Under the theoretical lens of institutional capacity development, the study attempts to correlate climate finance and climate risk. The study indicates an increasing trend of MBDs’ and the GCF’s climate finance in many countries worldwide. The study finds that MDBs’ total global climate finance is USD 446,977 million, while the SA region has received USD 59,301 million since 2011. It also reports that MDBs provide 77% and 23% of the money to the mitigation and adaptation areas. Moreover, the study reports that, after COVID-19, MDBs substantially increased the amount of global climate financing, but this increase was not seen in the SA region. Our climate risk data indicate that most of the SA countries are highly long-term climate risky and lose, on average, 0.378% of GDP. The correlation matrix finds a negative and significant correlation between climate finance and long-term and yearly climate risk. The study identifies that the region’s climate financing flow of money is not rationally distributed based on the short-run and long-run climate risks. The study presumes that more climate finance would be the most effective mechanism to mitigate climate risk. Therefore, SA region leadership drastically requires a holistic framework to address the prevailing climate problems and to ensure regional coordination and cooperation toward climate finance and policies. The research findings have significant implications for climate policy and climate finance.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060119
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 120: Performance Evaluation of TerraClimate
Monthly Rainfall Data after Bias Correction in the Fes-Meknes Region
(Morocco)
Authors: Mohamed Hanchane, Ridouane Kessabi, Nir Y. Krakauer, Abderrazzak Sadiki, Jaafar El Kassioui, Imane Aboubi
First page: 120
Abstract: Morocco’s meteorological observation network is quite old, but the spatial coverage is insufficient to conduct studies over large areas, especially in mountainous regions, such as the Fez-Meknes region, where spatio-temporal variability in precipitation depends on altitude and exposure. The lack of station data is the main reason that led us to look for alternative solutions. TerraClimate (TC) reanalysis data were used to remedy this situation. However, reanalysis data are usually affected by a bias in the raw values. Bias correction methods generally involve a procedure in which a “transfer function” between the simulated and corrected variable is derived from the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of these variables. We explore the possibilities of using TC precipitation data for the Fez-Meknes administrative region (Morocco). This examination is of great interest for the region whose mountain peaks constitute the most important reservoir of water in the country, where TC data can overcome the difficulty of estimating precipitation in mountainous regions where the spatio-temporal variability is very high. Thus, we carried out the validation of TC data on stations belonging to plain and mountain topographic units and having different bioclimatic and topographic characteristics. Overall, the results demonstrate that the TC data capture the altitudinal gradient of precipitation and the average rainfall pattern, with a maximum in November and a minimum in July, which is a characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. However, we identified quasi-systematic biases, negative in mountainous regions and positive in lowland stations. In addition, summer precipitation is overestimated in mountain regions. It is considered that this bias comes from the imperfect representation of the physical processes of rainfall formation by the models. To reduce this bias, we applied the quantile mapping (QM) method. After correction using five QM variants, a significant improvement was observed for all stations and most months, except for May. Validation statistics for the five bias correction variants do not indicate the superiority of any particular method in terms of robustness. Indeed, results indicate that most QM methods lead to a significant improvement in TC data after monthly bias corrections.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-27
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060120
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 121: Identifying and Attributing Regime Shifts in
Australian Fire Climates
Authors: Roger N. Jones, James H. Ricketts
First page: 121
Abstract: This paper introduces and analyzes fire climate regimes, steady-state conditions that govern the behavior of fire weather. A simple model representing fire climate was constructed by regressing high-quality regional climate averages against the station-averaged annual Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for Victoria, Australia. Four FFD indices for fire years 1957–2021 were produced for 10 regions. Regions with even coverage of station-averaged total annual FFDI (ΣFFDI) from 1971–2016 exceeded Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.84, validating its widespread application. Data were analyzed for shifts in mean, revealing regime shifts that occurred between 1996 and 2003 in the southern states and 2012–13 in Queensland. ΣFFDI shifted up by ~25% in SE Australia to 8% in the west; by approximately one-third in the SE to 7% in the west for days above high fire danger; by approximately half in the SE to 11% in the west for days above very high, with a greater increase in Tasmania; and by approximately three-quarters in the SE to 9% in the west for days above severe FFDI. Attribution of the causes identified regime shifts in the fire season maximum temperature and a 3 p.m. relative humidity, with changing drought factor and rainfall patterns shaping the results. The 1:10 fire season between Regimes 1 and 2 saw a three to seven times increase with an average of five. For the 1:20 fire season, there was an increase of 2 to 14 times with an average of 8. Similar timing between shifts in the Australian FFDI and the global fire season length suggests that these changes may be global in extent. A trend analysis will substantially underestimate these changes in risk.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060121
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 122: Risky Business: Modeling the Future of
Jamaica’s Coffee Production in a Changing Climate
Authors: Anne-Teresa Birthwright, Mario Mighty
First page: 122
Abstract: Jamaica produces one of the most expensive coffees on the global market. The local specialty coffee industry plays a significant role in the island’s economy and also contributes to the livelihood of smallholders—the majority of whom operate the industry’s coffee farms. While climate model projections suggest that Jamaica will continue to experience a warming and drying trend, no study has assessed the future impacts of changing climatic patterns on local coffee-growing areas. This research developed a number of geospatial processing models within the ArcMap software platform to model current coffee suitability and future crop suitability across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and three future time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100). The results validated current locations of coffee production and revealed that there was an observable decrease in coffee suitability across the island, across all SSP scenarios and time periods under study. Most growing regions were projected to experience declines in production suitability of at least 10%, with the most severe changes occurring in non-Blue Mountain regions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Implications of this projected suitability change range from decreased production volumes, increased price volatility, and disruption to market operations and livelihood incomes. The paper’s findings offer stakeholders within Jamaica’s coffee industry the opportunity to develop targeted adaptation planning initiatives, and point to the need for concrete decisions concerning future investment pathways for the industry. It also provides insight into other tropical coffee-growing regions around the world that are facing the challenges associated with climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-30
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060122
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 123: How Can a Changing Climate Influence the
Productivity of Traditional Olive Orchards' Regression Analysis Applied to
a Local Case Study in Portugal
Authors: Carlos Silveira, Arlindo Almeida, António C. Ribeiro
First page: 123
Abstract: Nowadays, the climate is undoubtedly one of the main threats to the sustainability of olive orchards, especially in the case of rainfed traditional production systems. Local warming, droughts, and extreme weather events are some of the climatological factors responsible for environmental thresholds in relation to crops being exceeded. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of microclimatic variability on the productivity of traditional olive orchards in a municipality located in northeastern Portugal. For this purpose, official data on climate, expressed through agro-bioclimatic indicators, and olive productivity for a 21-year historical period (2000–2020) were used to evaluate potential correlations. In addition, a comprehensive regression analysis involving the dataset and the following modeling scenarios was carried out to develop regression models and assess the resulting predictions: (a) Random Forest (RF) with selected features; (b) Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) with selected features; (c) OLS with correlation features; and (d) OLS with all features. For the a and b scenarios, features were selected applying the Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFECV) technique. The best statistical performance was achieved considering nonlinearity among variables (a scenario, R2 = 0.95); however, it was not possible to derive any model given the underlying methodology to this scenario. In linear regression applications, the best fit between model predictions and the real olive productivity was obtained when all the analyzed agro-bioclimatic indicators were included in the regression (d scenario, R2 = 0.85). When selecting only the most relevant indicators using RFECV and correlation techniques, moderate correlations for the b and c regression scenarios were obtained (R2 of 0.54 and 0.49, respectively). Based on the research findings, especially the regression models, their adaptability to other olive territories with similar agronomic and environmental characteristics is suggested for crop management and regulatory purposes.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-06-01
DOI: 10.3390/cli11060123
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 6 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 92: Peatland Fire Weather Conditions in Sumatra,
Indonesia
Authors: Hiroshi Hayasaka
First page: 92
Abstract: This study was conducted to identify the fire weather conditions needed to assess future peatland fires under climate change. Recent peatland fires in Indonesia have resulted in globally significant environmental impacts. Nevertheless, fire weather in the peatlands has not been clarified. The objective of this study is to determine the fire weather needed to assess future peatland fires under climate change. We analyzed fire, rainfall, temperature, humidity, and wind in the fire-prone areas in Sumatra. Analysis results using 20 years of satellite hotspot data from 2003 showed that fires in Sumatra occur every other month except December and April when rainfall intensifies. Due to relatively low rainfall, peatland fires in North Sumatra occur not only from January to March (the main dry season), but also around June and August if short-term drought happens. These fire trends may suggest that the peatlands of Sumatra are mostly in a combustible state. Analysis results using diurnal weather data showed that active peatland fires tend to occur under high air temperatures (around above 34 °C), low relative humidity (lower than 50%), and high wind speeds (higher than 18 km h−1). We hope that this report will help improve future peat fire assessments and fire forecasting under rapid climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-22
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050092
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 93: Exploring the Association between Changing
Crop Types and Water Scarcity: A Case Study over West-Central India
Authors: Sneha Kulkarni, Vinay Kumar, Vinayak Bhanage, Shirishkumar Gedam
First page: 93
Abstract: In recent years, semi-arid regions of India, especially Marathwada, have been continuously under the grip of drought. Increasing water scarcity and depleting ground water levels have accentuated the agrarian crisis with an increased number of farmers committing suicide in this region. To understand this issue, the present paper deals with the roots of the drought severities concerning the summer monsoon rainfall and changing crop types over the districts of the Marathwada region, India, from 1996 to 2018. In this study, drought severities were quantified using station-based rainfall, groundwater level, and crop data (10 most cultivated crops) collected from various national agencies. The increasing rainfall trends over the Latur, Beed, and Aurangabad districts depict positive signs for agriculture. In contrast, other districts were under decreasing rainfall trends, but these declining rates were not statistically significant. The alarming fall of ground water level from 4 to 5 m during the considered period was noticed over most of the region, which is a cause for concern. The significant changes in agricultural practices from low-water-requirement crops such millet (bajra), sorghum (jowar), and wheat to high-water-requirement crops such as sugarcane and cotton were observed over Beed, Latur, Osmanabad, and Parbhani. An increase in the yield of cash crops demands an augmented water supply, which is becoming responsible for the rapidly declining ground water level. Therefore, this study claims that more than rainfall vagaries, the severe impact of droughts is a reflection of changing agricultural practices and poor management of water resources.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-27
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050093
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 94: Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics
over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments
Authors: Sridhara Nayak
First page: 94
Abstract: We investigated rainfall patterns over India for the period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051–2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951–1980 and 1981–2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051–2080 and 2081–2110). Our analysis found that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951–2010, which is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In the warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20 mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050094
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 95: Spatiotemporal Application of the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Eastern Mediterranean
Authors: Demetrios E. Tsesmelis, Ioanna Leveidioti, Christos A. Karavitis, Kleomenis Kalogeropoulos, Constantina G. Vasilakou, Andreas Tsatsaris, Efthimios Zervas
First page: 95
Abstract: The ever-increasing need for water, the alteration in the climate, and its observed changes over recent years have triggered a lot of research studies associated with the phenomenon of drought. Within the wider geographical region of the Mediterranean, the relevant scientific subject seems to be of great interest, since it is undoubtedly related to a number of severe socio-economic consequences. This present effort focuses on the evolution of this particular phenomenon over time, within the borders of nine different countries in the Eastern Mediterranean (Athens, Greece—Europe; Constantinople, Turkey—Asia; Nicosia, Cyprus—Europe; Jerusalem, Israel—Asia; Amman, Jordan—Asia; Damascus, Syria—Asia; Beirut, Lebanon—Asia; Cairo, Egypt—Africa; and Tripoli Libya—Africa). By applying the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), examining precipitation data at the month level (January 1901 to December 2020), and utilizing the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method, the spatio–temporal variability of drought events in the Eastern Mediterranean area was studied. In Jerusalem, long-term droughts presented a higher than usual volume, in accordance with applying the 12- and 24-month SPI, starting from the mid-20th century. Similarly, the region of Damascus presented a similar pattern to those in Beirut, Amman, and Jerusalem. An upward trend in the frequency of extreme drought events was observed for the last thirty years. The same trend seems to be true in terms of the duration of dry periods. Drought events have also been observed in the central, southern, and eastern regions of Turkey. A downward trend was observed in Cairo based on a trend analysis of its monthly precipitation.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050095
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 96: High-Resolution Bioclimatic Surfaces for
Authors: Gregory Anthony Pauca-Tanco, Joel Fernando Arias-Enríquez, Johana del Pilar Quispe-Turpo
First page: 96
Abstract: Ecological niche and species distribution models are of great importance, since their results allow for an understanding of many aspects related to the biology of the species under study, even understanding their evolutionary relationships or their response to past or future projections. In this research, climatic surfaces were produced from ground-based meteorological stations in the departments of Arequipa, Moquegua and Tacna. Temperature and precipitation data from 119 stations were obtained and homogenized; then, using geographic and orographic covariates, models were prepared so as to obtain maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation surfaces. The produced surfaces were evaluated by cross validation and compared to other models in the area. Finally, 19 bioclimatic surfaces were created. The results show general patterns for temperature and precipitation, with some particulars. Twelve layers were produced for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, respectively, showing acceptable values for RMSEcv and MAD. Comparison with other models shows statistically significant differences. Both the climatic and bioclimatic surfaces produced were placed in a database for free access. Finally, comments are made on the importance and applications of the bioclimatic layers produced here.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-28
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050096
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 97: Impact of CS-IPM on Key Social Welfare Aspects
of Smallholder Farmers’ Livelihoods
Authors: Haruna Sekabira, Ghislain T. Tepa-Yotto, Yusuf Kaweesa, Guy Simbeko, Manuele Tamò, Cyriaque Agboton, Osman Damba Tahidu, Tahirou Abdoulaye
First page: 97
Abstract: All stakeholders, especially households that depend on agriculture, must come up with every avenue available to improve farm productivity in order to raise yields due to the constraints posed by climate change on food production systems. Sufficient increments in yields will address the challenges of food insecurity and malnutrition among vulnerable households, especially smallholder ones. Yield increases can be achieved sustainably through the deployment of various Climate Smart Integrated Pest Management (CS-IPM) practices, including good agronomic practices. Therefore, CS-IPM practices could be essential in ensuring better household welfare, including food security and nutrition. With such impact empirically documented, appropriate policy guidance can be realized in favor of CS-IPM practices at scale, thus helping to achieve sustainable food security and food systems. However, to this end, there is yet limited evidence on the real impact of CS-IPM practices on the various core social welfare household parameters, for instance, food security, household incomes, gender roles, and nutrition, among others. We contribute to this body of literature in this paper by reviewing various empirical evidence that analyzes the impact of respective CS-IPM practices on key social welfare aspects of smallholder farm households in developing countries around the world. The review finds that CS-IPM practices do increase households’ adaptation to climate change, thus enhancing soil and crop productivity, thereby ensuring food and nutrition security, as well as increasing market participation of CS-IPM adopters, thus leading to increased household incomes, asset accumulation, and subsequently better household food and nutrition security via direct own-farm produce consumption and market purchases using income. CS-IPM practices also enhance access to climate-related information, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, conserve biodiversity, and enhance dietary diversity through improved crop and livestock varieties and also reduce variable farm production costs. Therefore, there would be multiple welfare gains if CS-IPM practices were scaled up.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-29
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050097
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 98: Connection of Compound Extremes of Air
Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in
Eastern Europe
Authors: Olga Sukhonos, Elena Vyshkvarkova
First page: 98
Abstract: Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of compound extremes in air temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world, especially under dry and hot conditions. Compound extremes have a significant impact on all spheres of human activity, such as health, agriculture, and energy. Features of atmospheric circulation are closely related to the occurrence of anomalies in air temperature and precipitation. The article analyzes the relationship of atmospheric circulation modes with compound extremes that have had the greatest impact on the Atlantic–European region over the territory of Eastern Europe over the past 60 years on extreme air temperature and precipitation. Combinations of extreme temperature and humidity conditions (indices)— cold-dry (CD), cold-wet (CW), warm-dry (WD) and warm-wet (WW)—were used as compound extremes. Indices of compound extremes were calculated according to the E-OBS reanalysis data. Estimates of the relationship between two time series were carried out using standard correlation and composite analyses, as well as cross wavelet analysis. Phase relationships and time intervals for different climatic indices were different. The period of most fluctuations in the indices of compound extremes was from 4 to 12 years and was observed during 1970–2000. The coherent fluctuations in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index occurred rather in phase, those in the time series of the CD and WD indices and the Arctic oscillation (AO) index occurred in antiphase, and those in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) index occurred in antiphase. Statistically significant increase in the number of warm compound extremes was found for the northern parts of the study region in the winter season with positive NAO and AO phases.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-29
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050098
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 99: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on
Sorghum Crop Yield in the Babile District of Eastern Ethiopia
Authors: Abdisa Alemu Tolosa, Diriba Korecha Dadi, Lemma Wogi Mirkena, Zelalem Bekeko Erena, Feyera Merga Liban
First page: 99
Abstract: The impacts of various climatic conditions, such as temperature and rainfall variabilities, are very critical and sensitive to rain-fed crop production, particularly over the water stress arid and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia. This study was designed to evaluate the potential impact of climate variability and change on sorghum grain yield in the Babile district of eastern Ethiopia. The study was conducted based on observed and model-based simulated projected rainfall and temperature obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and General Circulation Models (GCM) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the Fifth Assessment Report CMIP5) and Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Three GCM models, namely GFDLESM2M, CanESM2, and HadGEM2-ES under RCP4.5, were considered to generate future climate projections for the near-term 21st century. Various univariate and multivariate statistical techniques were employed to compute and identify whether the impacts of climate variability and change on rain-fed sorghum crop performance were reasonably viable over the districts where grain yield is highly stable and productive under normal climate conditions. Our findings revealed that more stable and better rainfall performance from May to September, the season when sorghum crops are normally planted in the Babile district, was positively correlated, while the maximum and minimum temperatures of the season were negatively correlated with sorghum grain yield. A significant association has been detected between sorghum grain yield and its growing period rainfall, number of rainy days, and maximum and minimum temperature with multi-regression analysis. Thus, the variability of rainfall in August, June temperature, and the number of rainy days in September significantly impacted sorghum crop productivity. As a result, the multi-regression model adjusted R-squared indicated that 77% variance in annual sorghum yield performance was explained by rainfall and temperature conditions that prevailed during the crop growing period. During the past period, there was a significant increase in sorghum yields, which are projected to decline during the near term of the 21st century in the future. This revealed that declining and disturbed rainfall performance and increases in temperature are likely to reduce overall sorghum grain yield in the Babile district. We recommend that there is a need to enhance awareness for smallholder farmers on the adverse impact of climate variability and change on sorghum grain yield. In view of this, the farmers need to be geared toward employing climate-smart agriculture as a possible adaptation measure to reduce the negative impacts of climate variability and change on rain-fed crop production practices in the Babile district and other arid and semi-arid parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050099
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 100: City-Wise Assessment of Suitable CMIP6 GCM in
Simulating Different Urban Meteorological Variables over Major Cities in
Indonesia
Authors: Vinayak Bhanage, Han Soo Lee, Tetsu Kubota, Radyan Putra Pradana, Faiz Rohman Fajary, I Dewa Gede Arya Putra, Hideyo Nimiya
First page: 100
Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of 6 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for simulating temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity over 29 cities in Indonesia. Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications (MERRA-2) was considered as reference data to assess the city-wise performance of surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity simulated by the CMIP6 GCMs during 1980–2014. Six statistical measures were computed in this process (mean annual, seasonal amplitude, mean annual bias, root mean square error, correlation coefficient, and standard deviation). For 29 cities, the mean annual values of surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity obtained from the GCMs range between 290 to 302 K, 100 cm to 450 cm, 1 to 6 m/s, and 70 to 94%, respectively. The correlation coefficient between the GCMs and the surface air temperature (precipitation) reanalysis dataset ranges from 0.3 to 0.85 (−0.14 to 0.77). The correlation coefficient for wind speed (relative humidity) varies from 0.2 to 0.6 and is positive in some cases (0.2 to 0.8). Subsequently, the relative error that combines the statistical measurement results was calculated for each city and meteorological variable. Results show that for surface air temperature and precipitation, the performance of TaiESM was outstanding over the 10 or more cities. In contrast, for wind speed and relative humidity, NOR-MM and MPI-HR were the best over 7 and 19 cities, respectively. For all the meteorological variables, the performance of AWI was found to be worst over all the cities. The outcomes of this study are essential for climate-resilience planning and GCM selection while performing downscaling experiments. It will also be useful for producing updated national climate change projections for each city in Indonesia and providing new insights into the climate system.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050100
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 101: First Record of the Northern Wolffish
Anarhichas denticulatus Krøyer, 1845 (Anarhichadidae: Zoarcoidei:
Authors: Alexei M. Orlov, Svetlana Yu. Orlova, Maxim O. Rybakov, Olga R. Emelianova, Elena V. Vedishcheva
First page: 101
Abstract: A single specimen of the northern wolffish Anarhichas denticulatus Krøyer, 1845, 393 mm in length, was documented for the first time in the Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea, Russia). Species identification was confirmed by an integrative taxonomic approach that included examination of external morphology and DNA barcoding using the COI mtDNA gene. This species is widely distributed in the North Atlantic, but records in the Arctic Ocean are limited to the Canadian and US coasts. This record might represent a significant range extension of about 7500 km for the species and may be associated with the eastward transport of a pelagic juvenile specimen from the Northeastern Atlantic to the Laptev Sea by the North Atlantic current, consistent with the hypothesis of Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean. X-ray images of the Laptev Sea specimen and photographs showing ontogenetic variations of species’ coloration are provided for reference. The Laptev Sea specimen had a more elongated shape, longer preorbital distance, and longer pectoral, dorsal, and anal fins, as well as a larger eye and wider caudal fin compared to North Atlantic samples. The size differences are likely associated with conditions experienced as a juvenile during the pelagic stage of the lifecycle.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050101
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 102: Impact of Climate Change on the Stability of
the Miacher Slope, Upper Hunza, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan
Authors: Mehboob ur Rashid, Waqas Ahmed, Ihtisham Islam, Petros Petrounias, Panagiota P. Giannakopoulou, Nikolaos Koukouzas
First page: 102
Abstract: Especially in recent years, the study of landslide phenomena is considered as very important because of the effects of climate change. The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of the slope located in Miacher Nagar village along the Hunza River (HR), using the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM). The Miacher slope rises to a height of 900 m from the foot of the Hunza River and has a base angle of 50 degrees. Meta-sediments and quaternary recent glaciated deposits make up the majority of the slope’s composition. The slope movement of Miacher was first triggered in 1995, and was further triggered in 2010 and 2013. The slope was geologically, geomorphologically, geotechnically and geochemically investigated as well as modeled by Slope/w to determine the safety factor. Soil samples were analyzed for their geotechnical, geological and geomorphological properties. The Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) was employed in this study to analyze the Factor of Safety (FOS) of the slope, based on assumptions of the Morgenstern and Price, Ordinary, Janbu and Bishop Methods, using the Slope/w software. Various factors, including pore water pressure, unit weight, cohesion, angle of internal friction and overburden, were examined by analyzing different scenarios. The findings showed that an increase in cohesion and angle of internal friction resulted in an increase in FOS, whereas an increase in unit weight and overburden caused a decrease in FOS. The influence of pore water pressure was positive to a certain extent, but a further increase led to a significant reduction in FOS. The results showed that the Miacher slope is currently stable, as all FOS values were greater than one, based on the existing strength parameters and simulated results obtained using Slope/w.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-08
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050102
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 103: Climate Change Effects on River Flow in
Eastern Europe: Arctic Rivers vs. Southern Rivers
Authors: Andrey Kalugin
First page: 103
Abstract: The hydrological model ECOMAG was used to calculate runoff characteristics in the main arctic (Northern Dvina and Pechora) and southern (Don and Kuban) river basins of Eastern Europe using the data from the ensemble of global climate models under the scenario of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century relative to pre-industrial values. Flow generation models were calibrated and validated based on runoff measurements at gauging stations using meteorological observation data. According to the results of numerical experiments, the relative change in river runoff in European Russia increases from north to south and from east to west under global warming of 1.5 to 2 °C. As a result, hydrological systems in milder climate were found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The assessment of flow anomalies in European Russia under the selected climate scenarios revealed the following general features: winter runoff in arctic rivers would increase, spring melt runoff in the Northern Dvina and Don would decrease, and summer–autumn runoff in all studied rivers would decrease to varying degrees. The most negative runoff anomalies are characterized in the southwestern part of the Northern Dvina basin, the middle part of the Don basin, and the lowland part of the Kuban basin, whereas positive runoff anomalies are characterized in the northern and eastern parts of the Pechora basin. Global warming of 1.5 to 2 °C would have the greatest impact on the rate of reduction of Kuban summer–autumn runoff and Don runoff during the spring flood, as well as the increase in Northern Dvina and Pechora winter runoff.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050103
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 104: Review of Vulnerability Factors Linking
Climate Change and Conflict
Authors: Takato Nagano, Takashi Sekiyama
First page: 104
Abstract: This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions. Second, two factors, access to technology (e.g., for climate change adaptation) and partially democratic states, are insufficiently studied. Third, classification criteria in the previous framework need revision for accuracy. Considering these points, this study proposes a modified vulnerability analysis framework and offers five suggestions for future research directions in climate security research. First, more qualitative case studies are needed to complement the quantitative work. Second, in particular, cases where conflict was avoided or cooperation was established in high vulnerability areas need further research. Third, further research is needed on understudied factors (e.g., access to technology and partial democracy) and on factors the conventional framework cannot explain (e.g., land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions). Fourth, no single vulnerability factor leads to conflict in isolation, but only in interaction; their connections must be studied. Finally, case studies are needed on vulnerability factors in countries and regions that have suffered from climate change but have not experienced conflict.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050104
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 105: Enhancing Climate Neutrality and Resilience
through Coordinated Climate Action: Review of the Synergies between
Mitigation and Adaptation Actions
Authors: Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos, Ioannis Sebos
First page: 105
Abstract: Recently, reported long-term climate change consequences, such as rising temperatures and melting glaciers, have emphasized mitigation and adaptation actions. While moderating the severity of climate changes, precautionary human actions can also protect the natural environment and human societies. Furthermore, public and private collaboration can leverage resources and expertise, resulting in more impactful mitigation and adaptation actions for effective climate change responses. A coordinated and strategic approach is necessary in order to prioritize these actions across different scales, enabling us to maximize the benefits of climate action and ensure a coordinated response to this global challenge. This study examines the interplay between climate mitigation and adaptation actions in Greece and the European Union (EU). We conducted a literature search using relevant keywords. The search results were systematically approached in alignment with two pairs of thematic homologous entities, enabling the review of these literature findings to be organized and holistically investigated. In this respect, the three fields of agriculture, energy, and multi-parametric determinants of climate neutrality have emerged and been discussed. Our analysis also focused on the key implemented and planned mitigation and adaptation climate actions. Through this review, we identified the most important motives and challenges related to joint adaptation and mitigation actions. Our findings underscore the need for a comprehensive approach to climate action planning that incorporates both adaptation and mitigation measures.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050105
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 106: Analysis of Hydrometeorological Trends and
Drought Severity in Water-Demanding Mediterranean Islands under Climate
Change Conditions
Authors: Efthymia Stathi, Aristeidis Kastridis, Dimitrios Myronidis
First page: 106
Abstract: Global climate change has emerged as a problem in recent years, and its effects will likely continue to increase in the future. Several scientific studies conducted in the Mediterranean region have demonstrated relatively stationary trends for annual precipitation and significant upward trends for mean annual temperature. These trends present several implications, especially in the Greek islands that serve as major summer tourist destinations where the population is already unable to meet their water demands. The aim of this study is to investigate both long- and short-term variations in temperature and precipitation on three Greek islands in the Mediterranean Sea (Mykonos, Naxos, and Kos). The temperature and rainfall trends, as well as their magnitudes at yearly, seasonal, and monthly time steps, were determined using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to identify the drought periods. According to the results, precipitation slightly increased (almost stationary) in the three islands, although this rise was not statistically significant. All three islands experienced a sharp and statistically significant increase in their mean annual air temperatures. The region may experience drought episodes as a result of the high temperature increase, which would drastically reduce the amount of water, available for use due to the increased evapotranspiration. For the Mediterranean region, the necessity for a drought management strategy to stop or diminish the severity of drought episodes and their effects has grown into a matter of great concern. It is crucial to take measures and conduct relevant research in order to create the conditions for adaptation and mitigation of climate change consequences and the increased appearance of drought phenomena.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-15
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050106
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 107: Evaluation of Selected Amateur Rain Gauges
with Hellmann Rain Gauge Measurements
Authors: Radosław Droździoł, Damian Absalon
First page: 107
Abstract: The paper compares precipitation measurements from the Stratus manual rain gauge from the CoCoRaHS network and two Davis Vantage Vue and Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauges with the Hellmann rain gauge. Comparative measurements were made on a specially prepared experimental plot. The statistical calculations took into account 15 full months in the period from 1 October 2019, to 31 December 2020. In order to estimate the differences in measurements between amateur rain gauges and the Hellmann rain gauge, two statistics were calculated: the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE). In order to present formal and more detailed differences in measurements between amateur rain gauges and the Hellmann rain gauge, analyses were performed using a linear regression model. The general form of the tested models was presented. The procedure for estimating the parameters of the models and the method of comparing the fit of the models to the data were described, and the rain gauge whose measurements were most closely related to the measurements of the Hellmann rain gauge was indicated. The study showed that the higher price of amateur rain gauges does not mean higher quality. The study showed that the Stratus rain gauge was the best at recording daily precipitation totals. The Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauge recorded daily precipitation sums with less accuracy. The Davis Vantage Vue rain gauge, despite being located on the roof, recorded similar rainfall totals as the Hellmann rain gauge. It was found that, despite the different construction and measurement methods, the precipitation measurement data from the Stratus rain gauge and the Davis Vantage Vue rain gauge are suitable both for climate monitoring and for use, after applying quality control, in NMHS networks.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-16
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050107
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 108: Projection of Sediment Loading from Pearl
River Basin, Mississippi into Gulf of Mexico under a Future Climate with
Afforestation
Authors: Ying Ouyang, Yanbo Huang, Prem B. Parajuli, Yongshan Wan, Johnny M. Grace, Peter V. Caldwell, Carl Trettin
First page: 108
Abstract: Sediment load in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants. Sediment deposition significantly changes river flow and morphology, thereby affecting stream hydrology and aquatic life. We projected sediment load from the Pearl River basin (PRB), Mississippi into the northern Gulf of Mexico under a future climate with afforestation using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)-based HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System) model. Three simulation scenarios were developed in this study: (1) the past scenario for estimating the 40-year sediment load from 1981 to 2020; (2) the future scenario for projecting the 40-year sediment load from 2025 to 2064, and (3) the future afforestation scenario that was the same as the future scenario, except for converting the rangeland located in the middle section of the Pearl River watershed of the PRB into the mixed forest land cover. Simulations showed a 16% decrease in sediment load for the future scenario in comparison to the past scenario due to the decrease in future surface runoff. Over both the past and future 40 years, the monthly maximum and minimum sediment loads occurred, respectively, in April and August; whereas the seasonal sediment load followed the order: spring > winter > summer > fall. Among the four seasons, winter and spring accounted for about 86% of sediment load for both scenarios. Under the future 40-year climate conditions, a 10% reduction in annual average sediment load with afforestation was observed in comparison to without afforestation. This study provides new insights into how a future climate with afforestation would affect sediment load into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050108
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 109: Question of Liability for Emissions from Land
Development in Relation to New York State Climate Change Plan
Authors: Elena A. Mikhailova, Lili Lin, Zhenbang Hao, Hamdi A. Zurqani, Christopher J. Post, Mark A. Schlautman, Gregory C. Post, George B. Shepherd
First page: 109
Abstract: The question of liability (responsibility) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change often ignores the liability for L&D from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are the source of climate change-related impacts. New York State (NYS) recognizes its responsibility regarding climate change as documented in the NYS Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) (Senate Bill S6599), which put forward the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all anthropogenic sources 100% over 1990 levels by the year 2050, with an incremental target of at least a 40% reduction in climate pollution by the year 2030. The current NYS carbon footprint (CF) does not include soil-based GHG emissions from land developments, preventing the state from reaching its net-zero emission goals. The current study addresses this shortcoming by quantifying the “realized” social costs of CO2 (SC-CO2) emissions for NYS from all land developments (12,037.5 km2, midpoint 1.7 × 1011 of total soil carbon (TSC) losses with midpoint $28.5B (where B = billion = 109, USD)) in social costs of carbon dioxide emissions, SC-CO2) and “new” land developments (485.2 km2) in the period from 2001 to 2016, which caused a complete loss of midpoint 6.6 × 109 kg of TSC resulting in midpoint $1.1B SC-CO2. All NYS’s counties experienced land conversions, with most of the developments, TSC losses, and SC-CO2 occurred near the existing urban areas of New York City (NYC), Long Island, and Albany. Land conversion to developments creates additional liability by the loss of future GHG sequestration potential in developed areas. In addition, there is a substantial future liability in NYS from climate change impacts, such as the projected sea-level rises will impact 17 of NY’s 62 counties, which will cause high costs of adaptation. Incorporation of land use/land cover change (LULCC) analysis can help better quantify the CF and identify ways to reduce GHG emissions and the associated liabilities and compensations to help achieve some of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050109
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 110: Adapting to Changing Climate: Understanding
Coastal Rural Residents’ Relocation Intention in Response to Sea
Level Rise
Authors: Richard Adade, Dukiya Jaiye, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe
First page: 110
Abstract: Ex situ adaptation in the form of relocation has become inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones where other adaptation strategies become impractical or uneconomical. Although relocation of coastal low-lying communities is anticipated globally, little is still known about the factors that influence household-level adoption. This study draws on an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to assess the factors influencing the relocation intention of three highly vulnerable coastal rural communities in Ghana. A total of 359 household heads were randomly selected for a questionnaire survey. The study employed binary logistic regression to identify key factors that influence residents’ readiness to relocate. The results indicated that cognitive and compositional factors were more important than contextual factors in explaining the intention to relocate among coastal rural communities in Ghana. However, contextual factors mediated or attenuated the influence of cognitive and compositional factors on relocation intention. Based on the findings, this study advocates for intensive education on the effects of future sea-level rise impacts on communities as well as structural and non-structural measures to improve the socio-economic capacity of rural communities.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-18
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050110
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 111: Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean
Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6
Authors: Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez, Martín José Montero-Martínez
First page: 111
Abstract: This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with the socio-environmental conditions of the south-southeast zone of Mexico and that has the greatest impact on the region’s average temperature. The downscaling method of bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, and an analysis of historical trends was performed for the period 1980–2014 with ERA5 and four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0). This process was extended to future projections. The models indicated temperature differences of less than 0.5 °C with respect to ERA5, in agreement with other studies. Additionally, the current study calculated future trends for the south-southeast region using three of the CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). The z-eq proposal was used to compare the slopes, enabling us to determine which of the three scenarios corresponded to the historical trend, assuming identical socio-environmental conditions. The SSP4-6.0 scenario was found to correspond to the historical trend.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-18
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050111
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 112: Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario
Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using
Object-Oriented Analysis
Authors: Brandon J. Fisel, Nathan E. Erickson, Colin R. Young, Ada L. Ellingworth, William J. Gutowski
First page: 112
Abstract: The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050112
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 113: Temperature, Humidity and Air Pollution
Relationships during a Period of Rainy and Dry Seasons in Lagos, West
Africa
Authors: Nwabueze Emekwuru, Obuks Ejohwomu
First page: 113
Abstract: Air pollution is a concern in the West Africa region where it is known that meteorological parameters such as ambient temperature and humidity can affect the particulate matter loading through atmospheric convection and dry deposition. In this study, we extend the investigation of these relationships to particulate matter less than 1 µm in diameter (PM1), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen monoxide (NO) and ozone (O3), for a complete period of rainy and dry seasons in Lagos. Regression analysis of the results indicate that there is a negligible to weak correlation (r < 0.39) between the temperature, humidity and air pollutants during the year, except for NO2 and O3 which respond moderately to humidity during the dry season, an observation previously unreported. The mean monthly values for all the air pollutants are lower during the rainy season compared to the dry season, indicating a potential higher contribution of the transport of pollutants from the north-eastern desert regions and the reduction of the wet removal of particles during the dry season. The World Health Organization air quality guidelines are mostly exceeded for fine particles with diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), supporting previous studies, as well as for the NO2 concentration levels. As PM2.5 contributes to at least 70% of the particulate matter pollution throughout the year, policy guidelines could be enacted for people with chronic respiratory issues during the January/February months of intense high air pollution, high temperature but low humidity values.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050113
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 114: Evaluating the Efficacy of Different DEMs for
Application in Flood Frequency and Risk Mapping of the Indian Coastal
River Basin
Authors: Parth Gangani, Nikunj K. Mangukiya, Darshan J. Mehta, Nitin Muttil, Upaka Rathnayake
First page: 114
Abstract: Floods are among the most occurring natural hazards that cause severe damage to infrastructure and loss of life. In India, southern Gujarat is affected during the monsoon season, facing multiple flood events in the Damanganga basin. As the basin is one of the data-scarce regions, evaluating the globally available dataset for flood risk mitigation studies in the Damanganga basin is crucial. In the present study, we compared four open-source digital elevation models (DEMs) (SRTM, Cartosat-1, ALOS-PALSAR, and TanDEMX) for hydrodynamic (HD) modeling and flood risk mapping. The simulated HD models for multiple flood events using HEC-RAS v6.3 were calibrated by adopting different roughness coefficients based on land-use land cover, observed water levels at gauge sites, and peak flood depths in the flood plain. In contrast to the previous studies on the Purna river basin (the neighboring basin of Damanganga), the present study shows that Cartosat-1 DEM provides reliable results with the observed flood depth. Furthermore, the calibrated HD model was used to determine the flood risk corresponding to 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return period floods calculated using Gumbel’s extreme value (GEV) and log-Pearson type III (LP-III) distribution techniques. Comparing the obtained peak floods corresponding to different return periods with the observed peak floods revealed that the LP-III method gives more reliable estimates of flood peaks for lower return periods, while the GEV method gives comparatively more reliable estimates for higher return period floods. The study shows that evaluating different open-source data and techniques is crucial for developing reliable flood mitigation plans with practical implications.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-05-22
DOI: 10.3390/cli11050114
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 5 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 75: The Solar Radiation Climate of Saudi Arabia
Authors: Ashraf Farahat, Harry D. Kambezidis, Abdulhaleem Labban
First page: 75
Abstract: In the present work, we investigate the solar radiation climate of Saudi Arabia, using solar radiation data from 43 sites in the country covering the period 2013–2021. These data include hourly values of global, G, and diffuse, Gd, horizontal irradiances from which the direct, Gb, horizontal irradiance is estimated. The diffuse fraction, kd; the direct-beam fraction, kb; and the ratio ke = Gd/Gb, are used in the analysis. Solar maps of the annual mean G, Gd, kd, kb, and ke are prepared for Saudi Arabia under all- and clear-sky conditions, which show interesting but explainable patterns. Additionally, the intra-annual and seasonal variabilities of these parameters are presented, and regression equations are provided. We find that Gb has a negative linear relationship with kd; the same applies to G with respect to kd or the latitude, φ, of the site. It is shown that kd and kb can reflect the scattering and absorption effects of the atmosphere on solar radiation, respectively; therefore, they can be used as atmospheric scattering and absorption indices. Part of the analysis considers the defined solar energy zones in Saudi Arabia.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-23
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040075
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 76: Impact of Accelerated Climate Change on
Maximum Temperature Differences between Western and Coastal Sydney
Authors: Varsha Bubathi, Lance Leslie, Milton Speer, Joshua Hartigan, Joanna Wang, Anjali Gupta
First page: 76
Abstract: The aims of this study are to assess the impacts of accelerated climate change on summer maximum temperatures since the early 1990s in the Australian city of Sydney’s eastern coastal and western inland suburbs. Western Sydney currently experiences far more intense summer (December–March) heat waves than coastal Sydney, with maximum temperatures exceeding those of coastal Sydney by up to 10 °C. Aside from increased bushfire danger, extreme temperature days pose health and socio-economic threats to western Sydney. Permutation tests of consecutive summer periods, 1962–1991 and 1992–2021, are employed to determine the differential climate change impacts on maximum summer temperatures at two locations: Sydney and Richmond, representative of eastern and western Sydney, respectively. Attribution of observed maximum summer temperature trends in Sydney and Richmond was performed using machine learning techniques applied to known Australian region oceanic and atmospheric climate drivers. It was found that there is a marked disparity in the percentage of summer days above the 95th percentile during the accelerated climate change period (1992–2021) between Richmond (+35%) and Sydney (−24%), relative to 1962–1991. The climate drivers detected as attributes were similar in both Sydney and Richmond, but, unsurprisingly, Sydney was more affected than Richmond by the oceanic climate drivers.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040076
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 77: Overview of the Spectral Coherence between
Planetary Resonances and Solar and Climate Oscillations
Authors: Nicola Scafetta, Antonio Bianchini
First page: 77
Abstract: The complex dynamics of solar activity appear to be characterized by a number of oscillations ranging from monthly to multimillennial timescales, the most well-known of which being the 11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle. Solar oscillations are important because they also characterize the oscillations observed in Earth’s climate and can thus be used to explain and forecast climate changes. Thus, it is important to investigate the physical origin of solar oscillations. There appear to be two possibilities: either the oscillations in solar activity are exclusively controlled by internal solar dynamo mechanisms, or the solar dynamo is partially synchronized to planetary frequencies by planetary forcings. The latter concept has recently gained support from a growing amount of evidence. In this work, we provide an overview of the many empirical facts that would support a planetary hypothesis of the variability of solar activity and emphasize their importance for climate research. We show that the frequencies produced by the complex interactions of all of the planets are coherent with the major solar activity and climate cycles, from monthly to multimillennial timescales, including the well-known Schwabe 11-year solar cycle. We provide some persuasive theoretical and empirical support for the planetary hypothesis of solar and climate variability.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-27
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040077
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 78: Brief Overview of Greek Fir Radial Growth in
Response to Climate and European Fir Budworm: Three Case Studies from
Giona Mountain, Central Greece
Authors: Panagiotis P. Koulelis, Panos V. Petrakis
First page: 78
Abstract: Tree rings provide an invaluable insight into how trees adapt to changes in climate. This study presents aggregated results, from our research on tree rings, climatic response and the insect Choristoneura murinana infestations from three studies on Greek fir, located in stands across Central Greece and Giona Mountain on three different altitudes. In our studies, was found that extreme droughts and wet events had a negative or positive effect on fir growth, respectively. April’s precipitation had a positive correlation with growth for all the stands, which supports other authors’ findings. Moreover, the average maximum temperature of the growing season and the maximum temperature of April, July and August were also linked to growth. Evapotranspiration during the growing season was seen to be inversely proportional to the growth of fir. An apparent decline in tree ring growth more severe in stand 3 (Average Tree Ring Width Index, ARWI < 0.6) has been observed, particularly in recent years. The data suggests that temperature is having a detrimental effect on fir growth in the area, with a significant decreasing tendency in growth from 1993 for the high altitude stands and from 1998 for the lower altitude stand. To ensure successful and sustainable forest management in the future, more research into tree rings and their relationship with climate must be carried out.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-31
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040078
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 79: Scientific Evidence for the Effectiveness of
Mangrove Forests in Reducing Floods and Associated Hazards in Coastal
Areas
Authors: Christopher Ihinegbu, Stefan Mönnich, Thecla Akukwe
First page: 79
Abstract: The evidence for the capacity of mangrove forests for coastal protection gained more importance within the recent decade because of important international agreements, such as the Sustainable Development Goals and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. However, the degree to which researchers agree on the capacity of mangroves to reduce coastal hazards is not fully established. This study employed a multilevel review process that selected 45 peer-reviewed articles for detailed analysis. Significant findings revealed a strong agreement amongst scientific literature on the benefits of mangrove forests in reducing coastal hazards. However, findings also revealed the dominance of single-discipline research, and less representation of countries in Africa and South America. Limitations in sampled studies highlight the limited number of global studies conducted on mangrove forests’ effectiveness in attenuating coastal hazards, and the limited representation of development and disaster studies. It is recommended that future research on mangrove forests and their coastal hazard reduction capacity should explore multidisciplinary approaches, and synergies in fieldwork and simulation methods while considering possible future climate change situations.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040079
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 80: Assessing Potential Links between Climate
Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America
Authors: Jason Giovannettone, Franklin Paredes-Trejo, Venerando Eustáquio Amaro, Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos
First page: 80
Abstract: In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to long-term mean and extreme sea level patterns, correlations between average sea levels at coastal sites throughout North America and low-frequency oscillations of several climate indices (CIs) were analyzed for the entire period of 1948–2018 as well as three equal-length sub-periods using correlation analysis. Correlation strength was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, while significance was estimated using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value). The sliding window size, lag time, and beginning month were varied for optimal correlation; 60-month sliding windows, along with 0 lag time, resulted in the strongest correlations. Strong (r >= 0.60) and significant (p-value <= 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool Eastern Asia/Western Russia index and ENSO exhibited the strongest and most widespread correlation with coastal sea levels. Further analysis was performed to identify and quantify the magnitude of any sea level trends using the Theil–Sen estimator, while the Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to estimate the significance of said trends. The results revealed that a complex set of ocean–atmosphere interactions govern long-term coastal sea level variability in large coastal regions of North America. The final results of this study allow a greater understanding of potential links between climate variability and long-term sea levels along the coasts of North America, as well as insights into sudden shifts in these relationships, which will contribute toward more accurate long-term forecasts.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-03
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040080
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 81: Changing Trends in Temperatures and Rainfalls
in the Western Pacific: Guam
Authors: Myeong-Ho Yeo, Ujwalkumar D. Patil, Adriana Chang, Romina King
First page: 81
Abstract: Pacific islands have always been at the front of the great challenge of climate change. In this study, Mann–Kendall’s tau-based slope estimator was implemented to detect statistical trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures of 2 stations and daily rainfalls at 14 stations over Guam for the period of 1953–2021, respectively, with 17 climate change detection indices. Mann–Kendall tests were implemented to the detection indices with respect to different time frames (i.e., annual, two-seasonal, and four-seasonal). The p-values from Mann–Kendall tests were used to determine the strength of trends, and Sen’s slopes were applied for the magnitudes of trends. The temperature trend analysis results indicate that Guam’s climate is getting warmer year by year. The increasing magnitudes of a seasonal maximum of daily maximum temperatures during the dry season are 0.036 °C/year for the dry season and 0.025 °C/year for the wet season at Anderson Airforce Base, while 0.031 °C/year and 0.023 °C/year for the dry and wet seasons at Guam International Airport. Trend analyses for temperatures have indicated that temperature during April through June has been increasing rapidly compared to other seasons. Strong trends in seasonal total rainfall amounts and the number of wet days were observed from July through December. The increasing trends in extreme rainfall indices during January–March and July–September periods would aggravate water quality due to the more sediments since important ecological reserve areas and coral reef areas are linked to watersheds in southern Guam.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040081
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 82: Diversity of Food Insecurity Coping Strategies
among Livestock Farmers in Northern Cape Province of South Africa
Authors: Yonas T. Bahta, Joseph P. Musara
First page: 82
Abstract: Small-scale livestock farmers in the drylands of South Africa are highly exposed to agricultural drought-related food insecurity. Research has used descriptive analyses and missed the need to index the diversity of coping strategies used for managing agricultural drought-induced food insecurity. This study was conducted to bridge this gap using a two-step procedure. Initially, the study identified the farmers’ coping strategies and food security status. A coping strategy diversity index was computed using the Shannon–Weiner method and its relationship with the food security status was determined. Secondly, the determinants of the coping strategy diversity index were explored using an ordered logit regression model after testing for the proportional odds assumption. A mixed methods approach was utilized and a standardized questionnaire was administered to 217 smallholder livestock farmers in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. The household food insecurity mean score (8.429 ± 7.105) from the household food insecurity scale (HFIAS) was significantly related to a higher diversity of coping strategies. Similar results were reported for the household food insecurity access prevalence (HFIAP) status. The different forms of support (e.g., cash, food, training and assets) had a significant (p < 0.05) and positive effect on the coping strategy diversity index among the households. Education, access to credit and insurance facilities and the frequency of droughts significantly (p < 0.05) influenced the diversity of coping strategies under drought conditions. The utilization of cash reserves and investment stocks also significantly (p < 0.05) influenced the extent of coping strategy diversity. The study recommended strengthening the functional and technical capacity pillars of dealing with agricultural drought through strategic partnerships between the government and livestock value chain players. This collaboration should target affordable credit lines tailor-made for farmers to cope with agricultural drought. If well-coordinated, these interventions should reduce food insecurity prevalence, especially during drought conditions among vulnerable smallholder livestock farmers. Lessons from this study could also inform future research on the effectiveness of the current agricultural drought coping strategies while expanding the diversity clusters over space and time.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040082
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 83: Viticultural Manipulation and New Technologies
to Address Environmental Challenges Caused by Climate Change
Authors: Qun Sun, Gabriel Granco, Leah Groves, Jully Voong, Sonet Van Zyl
First page: 83
Abstract: Climate change is a critical challenge for the global grape and wine industry, as it can disrupt grapevine growth, production, and wine quality. Climate change could influence the cost-effectiveness and growth of the wine industry in different wine regions since grapevine development is deeply dependent on weather (short-term) and climate (long-term) conditions. Innovation and new technologies are needed to meet the challenge. This review article addresses the impact of climate change on grapevines, such as vine phenology, pest and disease pressure, crop load, and grape and wine composition. It also reviews recent advances in the areas of viticultural manipulation and relevant technologies to potentially reduce the impact of climate change and help growers improve grape quality. Remote sensing is used for vineyard microclimate monitoring; thermal sensors combined with UAVs, aircraft, or satellites are used for water management; soil electrical conductivity sensors have been developed for soil mapping. Viticultural manipulations, such as regulated deficit irrigation for water use efficiency and berry-ripening delay for growing quality fruit, are also discussed. The review assesses future directions for further technological development, such as soil and vine water monitoring devises, precision viticulture, and artificial intelligence in vineyards.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040083
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 84: Temporal Changes in Minimum and Maximum
Temperatures at Selected Locations of Southern Africa
Authors: Walter Mupangwa, Lovemore Chipindu, Bongani Ncube, Siyabusa Mkuhlani, Nascimento Nhantumbo, Esther Masvaya, Amos Ngwira, Mokhele Moeletsi, Isaiah Nyagumbo, Feyera Liben
First page: 84
Abstract: Agriculture is threatened by ever increasing temperatures and this trend is predicted to continue for the near and distant future. The negative impact of rising temperatures on agri-food systems is also compounded by the erratic and highly variable rainfall in most parts of southern Africa. Minimum and maximum temperatures’ variability and trend analysis were undertaken using daily time series data derived from 23 meteorological stations spread across Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The modified Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen slope models were used to assess temperature trends and their magnitudes. Temperature varied with location and minimum temperature was more variable than maximum temperature. Semi-arid regions had higher variation in minimum temperature compared to humid and coastal environments. The results showed an upward trend in minimum (0.01–0.83 °C over a 33–38 year period) and maximum (0.01–0.09 °C over a 38–57 year period) temperatures at 9 and15 locations, respectively. A downward trend in minimum temperature (0.03–0.20 °C over 38–41 years) occurred in South Africa at two locations and Dedza (Malawi), while a non-significant decline in maximum temperature (0.01 °C over 54 years) occurred at one location in coastal dry sub-humid Mozambique. The results confirm the increase in temperature over 33–79 years, and highlight the importance of including temperature when designing climate change adaption and mitigation strategies in southern Africa and similar environments.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040084
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 85: Reframing Climate Change Resilience: An
Intersectional Perspective of Ethnicity and Gender from Vietnam
Authors: Tran Thi Phuong, Nguyen Quang Tan, Nguyen Thi Hai, Nguyen Huu Ngu
First page: 85
Abstract: This study breaks away from traditional macroeconomic-data-based research that often overlooks the subjective experiences of communities and social groups in assessing their resilience to external stressors. Instead, we conducted a nuanced analysis of self-assessments provided by 364 household heads in the Nam Dong District, Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam, to gain a comprehensive understanding of household resilience. Our investigation focused on two upland communities—the Kinh majority and Co Tu ethnic minority households—evaluating their resilience levels in terms of the five livelihood capitals and identifying significant disparities among different ethnic and gender groups. Our findings reveal notable differences in livelihood resilience to climate change and variability among these groups, particularly for women, the poor, and ethnic minorities who exhibit lower resilience levels. This underscores the need for policies and programs designed to improve resilience capacity while taking into account these groups’ cultural and social norms. We suggest focusing on improving financial, human, and social capitals to increase households’ resilience to external shocks. Specifically, building resilience for disadvantaged groups must go hand in hand with promoting their overall well-being and alleviating poverty. Additionally, we recommend tailored training programs to raise awareness among households and strengthening institutional systems to enhance overall resilience.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040085
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 86: Perceptions of Climate Change Risk on
Agriculture Livelihood in Savanna Region, Northern Togo
Authors: Abravi Essenam Kissi, Georges Abbevi Abbey, Grace B. Villamor
First page: 86
Abstract: The agriculture sector in the Savanna region of Togo is especially vulnerable to weather fluctuations, which have an impact on crop production levels. However, farmers’ decisions to implement adaptation strategies are directly related to their perceptions of climate change risk. The current study employed a participatory workshop and household survey of 425 farmers to examine the drivers of specific climate change risks of interest (risk of loss of livelihood for farmers) and measure farmers’ level of climate change risk perception. A climate change risk perception score (CCRPS), descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, and K-means cluster analysis were used to analyze the data collected. The findings revealed that the most important changes in climate conditions affecting agricultural production in the study area were mainly the increased duration of dry spells, erratic rainfall, and an increase in extreme rainfall events. These climatic variations cause more floods and droughts, which, when coupled with socio-ecological vulnerability drivers, increase the impact of these events on agricultural livelihood, expose more farmers and their farmland, and contribute to the risk of farmers’ livelihood loss in the study area. Based on farmers’ appraisals of the occurrence of hazards, their exposure, and their vulnerability, farmers’ perceptions of climate risk have been classified into three categories: high, moderate, and low. This finding sheds some light on farmers’ climate change risk perception, which may influence their adaptation decision. These findings can be used to increase the uptake of adaptation strategies and thus the resilience of Savanna region agriculture to climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-11
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040086
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 87: Impact of Stratospheric Geoengineering on Sea
Surface Temperature in the Northern Gulf of Guinea
Authors: Francis F. B. K. Ayissi, Casimir Y. Da Allada, Ezinvi Baloïtcha, Simone Tilmes, Peter J. Irvine
First page: 87
Abstract: Among techniques proposed to limit global warming, there is Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) which is aiming to increase Earth-atmosphere albedo by injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere in order to reduce the solar radiation that reaches the earth. This study aims to assess the potential impact of SAG on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Northern Gulf of Guinea and its causes using GLENS (Geoengineering Large Ensemble) simulations performed under a high anthropogenic emission scenario (RCP8.5). Here, we focus on two dynamically different regions: Sassandra Upwelling in Côte d’Ivoire (SUC, located east of Cape Palmas) and Takoradi Upwelling in Ghana (TUG, located east of Cape Three Points). Results show that in the SUC region, under climate change, there is an increase in SST (referred to as the current climate) all year long (by 1.52 °C on average) mainly due to an increase in net heat flux (lead by the decrease in longwave radiation) and also in weak vertical mixing (caused by strong stratification which dominates the vertical shear). Under SAG, SST decreases all the seasonal cycle with its maximum in December (−0.4 °C) due to a reduction in the net heat flux (caused by a diminution of solar radiation) and an increase in vertical advection (due to an increase in vertical temperature gradient and vertical velocity). In the TUG region, under climate change, SST warming is a little more intense than in the SUC region and SST changes are driven by an increase in the net heat flux and strong stratification. The cooling of the SST in TUG is similar to the SUC region, but contrary to this region, the cooling under SAG is not only explained by a decrease in the net heat flux but also by the remote forcing of wind changes at the western equatorial Atlantic.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040087
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 88: Can Simple Metrics Identify the Process(es)
Driving Extreme Precipitation'
Authors: Leif M. Swenson
First page: 88
Abstract: This work seeks an automatic algorithm to determine the primary meteorological cause(s) of individual extreme precipitation events. Such determinations have been made before, but required a by-hand analysis of each separate event. This is very time-consuming and the field would benefit from an automatic process. This is especially relevant when comparing different datasets to determine which ones most closely hew towards reality. This paper tests three simple metrics over the continental United States using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). The metrics tested measure and compare the strength of three meteorological processes associated with extreme precipitation: fronts, convection, and cyclones. A multivariate statistical technique as well as individual case studies show evidence that the three meteorological processes of interest cannot be isolated from one another using these simple physical metrics. This shows the difficulty in finding “pure” cases of these precipitation-generating processes and suggests approaching these processes with an eye toward mixed-type events.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040088
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 89: Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive
Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs,
Brazil
Authors: Marx Vinicius Maciel da Silva, Carlos Eduardo Sousa Lima, Cleiton da Silva Silveira
First page: 89
Abstract: Climate change in the coming decades could intensify extreme events such as severe droughts. Combined with the possible increase of water demands, these changes exert a great deal of pressure on the water systems. In order to confirm this assumption, a set of scenarios was proposed in this study to consider the combined impact of climate changes and the increase in water demand on the main multiple-use reservoirs of São Francisco River, Brazil. For this purpose, five CMIP6 climate models were used, considering two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The affluent natural flows and regulated flows were estimated to the adopted reservoirs considering all existing, new and projected demands. The combination of scenarios indicated an increase in Potential Evapotranspiration; possible significant reduction in water availability, with a decrease in precipitation with a magnitude of −15% in the most pessimistic scenarios and a decrease in flows with a magnitude varying between −5% and −40% in the Sobradinho and Três Marias reservoirs; growth in water demand, mainly for irrigation, with annual rates of 6.80%, 7.42%, 10.99% and 9.29% for Itaparica, Sobradinho, Três Marias and Retiro Baixo, respectively; and a substantial reduction in the performance of the evaluated reservoirs, mainly for the Retiro Baixo and Itaparica reservoirs, which showed a high vulnerability index and a low sustainability index.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-16
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040089
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 90: Perception and Knowledge of Algerian Students
about Climate Change and Its Putative Relationship with the COVID-19
Pandemic: A Preliminary Cross-Sectional Survey
Authors: Lounis, Madani, Boutebal
First page: 90
Abstract: Background: Climate changes (CC) is one of the most important insidious crises affecting all countries in the world in the 21st century, including Algeria, and it is projected to affect many people in the future. Mitigation of the effects of this phenomenon will certainly involve environmental education, especially among university students. Therefore, evaluating their level of knowledge could help us understand to what extent they are prepared to contribute in the global efforts to fight against this catastrophe. Objective: The current study aims to investigate the perception and knowledge of Algerian students about climate change and its potential relationship with the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: An online cross-sectional survey was conducted on a sample of 204 Algerian students by adopting snowball sampling during the academic year (2022/2023), with a questionnaire based on Google Forms. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The results obtained showed that 95.6% of the students asked had heard about this phenomenon and more than 90% perceived that it was really happening. The level of knowledge is significantly associated with age, where students aged between 20 and 30 years old had a lower level of knowledge than those over 30 years old (OR = 0.22, p = 0.027). Furthermore, students of the Humanities have shown the lowest level of knowledge compared to those of other domains. Regarding their attitude, only 31.8% of the asked students declared that they changed their attitude positively during the COVID-19 pandemic. The change in attitude and concern is statistically associated neither with the level of knowledge and perception nor COVID-19 affection, psychological impact, and uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusion: The study concluded that there was a high level of awareness and a medium level of knowledge about CC among Algerian university students. However, most of them were either very worried or a little worried about this phenomenon. It was also suggested that the average level of knowledge about cause and effect and pandemic resistance could be attributed to the scientific study path of students from the study sample. The results of this study could be used as a baseline for future research into CC knowledge and perception in Algeria.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040090
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 91: “Cold-Dry” and
“Cold-Wet” Events in the Late Holocene, Southern Russian Far
East
Authors: Nadezhda Razjigaeva, Larisa Ganzey, Tatiana Grebennikova, Vladimir Ponomarev
First page: 91
Abstract: Two late Holocene cold events were described for the Southern Russian Far East: 2800–2600 year BP and the Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1300–1850 CE). The synthesis is based on multi-proxy records on profile “the mainland (Primorye)-islands (Sakhalin-Kurils)”. Main archives are sediments of small lakes and peat bogs that recorded the high-resolution environmental changes. The temporal resolution of reconstructions here is up to 26–40 years. During the cold event of 2800–2600 year BP, the humidity decreased sharply, there were long-term dry seasons without strong floods, and buried soil formed on floodplains. The LIA was wet in the mainland and the Kurils, with frequent strong floods, but was drier in Sakhalin. The cooling was characterized by sharp temperature fluctuations where high moisture conditions alternated with short-term drier periods. The shift in geographical position and intensity of the main centers of atmospheric action caused a paleoclimatic interpretation of these events (Aleutian Low, Siberian and North Pacific Highs, the summer Okhotsk anticyclone and the Far East depression). Changes in the North Pacific oscillations played an important role in the alternation of cold-dry and cold-wet periods. Anomalies in the intensity of El Niño and the monsoon system led to changes in tropical and extratropical cyclone trajectories and cyclogenesis in general.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-04-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11040091
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 4 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 48: Performances of Holiday Climate Index (HCI)
for Urban and Beach Destinations in Sri Lanka under Changing Climate
Authors: Samarasinghe, Wickramarachchi, Makumbura, Meddage, Gunathilake, Muttil, Rathnayake
First page: 48
Abstract: Climate change has had a significant impact on the tourism industry in many countries, leading to changes in policies and adaptations to attract more visitors. However, there are few studies on the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and income, despite its importance as a destination for tourists. A study was conducted to analyze the holiday climate index (HCI) for Sri Lanka’s urban and beach destinations to address this gap. The analysis covered historical years (2010–2018) and forecasted climatic scenarios (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), and the results were presented as colored maps to highlight the importance of HCI scores. Visual analysis showed some correlation between HCI scores and tourist arrivals, but the result of the overall correlation analysis was not significant. However, a country-specific correlation analysis revealed interesting findings, indicating that the changing climate can be considered among other factors that impact tourist arrivals. The research proposes that authorities assess the outcomes of the study and conduct further research to develop adaptive plans for Sri Lanka’s future tourism industry. The study also investigated potential scenarios for beach and urban destinations under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the near and far future, presenting the findings to tourism industry stakeholders for any necessary policy changes. As Sri Lanka expects more Chinese visitors in the future due to ongoing development projects, this study could be valuable for policymakers and industry stakeholders when adapting to changing climate and future tourist behavior. While more research is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, this study serves as a starting point for future investigations.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030048
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 49: Projected Changes in Extreme Wet and Dry
Conditions in Greece
Authors: Effie Kostopoulou, Christos Giannakopoulos
First page: 49
Abstract: Earth’s changing climate may have different effects around the planet. Regional changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are associated with damaging natural hazards. Decreases in precipitation are expected to occur in some places at mid-latitudes, for instance the Mediterranean, which has been classified as a climate change hotspot. Droughts are among the most damaging natural hazards with severe consequences in the socio-economic sectors, the environment, and living beings. In contrast, extreme heavy precipitation events may become more frequent. This study aims to project changes in precipitation extremes and assess drought variability and change across Greece. A better knowledge of the potential changes in drought variability under climate change is vital for managing potential risks and impacts associated with dry conditions. The spatiotemporal characteristics of heavy precipitation and drought events in Greece are investigated using extreme precipitation indices such as consecutive wet/dry days, total wet-day precipitation, fraction of total wet-day rainfall, maximum daily precipitation, and heavy precipitation days. The standardized precipitation index and the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index are also calculated to assess seasonal dryness variability. The analysis is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution simulations from EURO-CORDEX, under two different representative concentration pathway scenarios. The results show that the region is subject to future dry conditions. Total annual precipitation is found to decrease in most of the country, with western and southern parts tending to be the most vulnerable areas. The annual precipitation is estimated to decrease by 5–20% and 5–25% (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) toward the period 2041–2070 and by 10–25% and 15–40% (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) toward 2071–2100. Drought-related indices reveal positive trends, particularly under the high greenhouse-gas emission scenario, with the number of consecutive dry days increasing by 20–50% and 40–80% (during 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively). On the contrary, extreme precipitation events tend to decrease in the future.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-21
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030049
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 50: Climate Change Impact on the Cultural Heritage
Sites in the European Part of Russia over the past 60 Years
Authors: Elena Vyshkvarkova, Olga Sukhonos
First page: 50
Abstract: Climate change is causing damage to infrastructure, ecosystems, and social systems, including cultural heritage sites. In the European part of Russia, there are 20 UNESCO-listed cultural heritage sites situated in different climatic conditions. This study assesses the impact of climate change on these sites by using ERA5 re-analysis data to calculate two frost damage indices and two salt weathering indices for the period 1960–2020. The findings indicate a rise in frost damage and salt weathering at cultural heritage sites in northern Europe, primarily due to changes in air temperature and water in the atmosphere, which are the main parameters responsible for the destruction of stone and brick structures. Given the observed and predicted trends in the main meteorological parameters, the detrimental destructive impact of climate change on cultural heritage sites will only increase. In view of the significant length of Russia from north to south and the difference in climatic conditions, measures for the adaptation and protection of cultural heritage sites must be adapted to local conditions and consider the material from which the object is made.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-22
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030050
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 51: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Surface
Water Resources in Arid Regions Using Downscaled Regional Circulation
Model and Soil Water Assessment Tool, a Case Study of Amman-Zerqa Basin,
Jordan
Authors: Ibrahim Al-Hasani, Mohammed Al-Qinna, Nezar Atalla Hammouri
First page: 51
Abstract: Water scarcity, aggravated by climate change impacts, threatens all sectors in arid regions and hampers sustainable development plans. This work aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on surface water resources of Amman-Zerqa Basin, Jordan, using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT) and outputs from the Downscaled Regional Circulation Model. Future scenarios were developed based on combining two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). A reference scenario from 1973 to 2015 was used to compare the current climate with future climates and their impacts on hydrological processes. Hydrologic modeling outputs showed very good performance ratings for calibration and validation periods. Statistical bias correction of the Downscale Regional Circulation Model (GCM) indicated that linear scaling for precipitation data was the best-performing bias correction method, along with variance scaling and distribution mapping methods for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively. The coupled future model simulations indicated a reduction in crucial water balance components under all modeled scenarios. The simulated reductions range between 3.7% and 20.7% for precipitation, 22.3–41.6% for stream flow, 25.0–47.0% for surface runoff, 0.5–13.4% for evapotranspiration, and 21.5–41.4% for water yield, from conservative to the severe scenario, respectively. In conclusion, spatial analyses indicated the presence of three zones of impact. Thus, future climate and hydrological adaptation measures should focus on the provided zoning.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-22
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030051
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 52: New Normal in ITCZ and Its Role in Altering
Agroclimatic Suitability for Rice Production
Authors: Somnath Jha, Mourani Sinha, Anupam Kumar
First page: 52
Abstract: Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) primarily governs the convective rainfall potential of the summer monsoon in Asia. In the present study, non-parametric trend test with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the summer monsoon period for the last 42 years (1980–2021) have been analyzed for ITCZ zone, representative zones of Hadley circulation and Walker circulation for exploring trend of the deep convection activity. Besides, various climatic variables like temperature (maximum, minimum, mean), precipitation, and cloud cover dataset are used for exploring trend in major rice growing regions of the world. The results indicate that there is a significantly decreasing trend of OLR in ITCZ zone during summer monsoon season. Contrarily, major rice growing regions of the world have witnessed a significantly increasing trend for the temperature parameter among all the zones. Rainfall and cloud cover have shown a typical trend i.e., increasing rainfall but decreasing cloud cover in the Southeast Asian and Maritime Continent rice growing regions. In rice suitable climate assessment, it has been found that the Maritime Continent rice growing region, the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the Southeast Asian rice growing regions have witnessed better rice suitable climates than other rice growing regions during the last 42 years (1980–2021).
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030052
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 53: Political and Social Drivers of COVID-19
Prevention and Climate Change Behaviors and Attitudes
Authors: Carl A. Latkin, Zoé Mistrale Hendrickson, Lauren Dayton, Haley Bonneau
First page: 53
Abstract: Attitudes and behaviors related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the climate change crisis might be driven by similar political beliefs and attitudes. The current study used a neo-Gramsci perspective to examine how political attitudes may be linked to COVID-19 prevention and climate change attitudes and behaviors. A longitudinal online survey in the US assessed climate change and COVID-19 attitudes and behaviors, and wave 7 (2021) data were used to predict outcomes at wave 8 (2022) among 572 respondents. There were significant correlations among the variables of political ideology, climate change concerns, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, COVID-19 skepticism, COVID-19 vaccine as a personal choice, COVID-19 conspiracy, political correctness, percent of Republican friends, and dislike of the Democratic Party. In the multivariate models, COVID-19 vaccination as a personal choice was significantly associated with the four outcomes: vaccination status, climate change actions, vaccine hesitancy, and climate change concerns. COVID-19 skepticism was significantly associated with vaccination status, vaccine hesitancy, and climate change concerns. These findings suggest that there are similar drivers of COVID-19 prevention and climate change attitudes and behaviors, and interventions need to be tailored to target individual-level and societal-level factors.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030053
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 54: Adaptive Thinking in Cities: Urban Continuity
within Built Environments
Authors: Hana Morel, Brenda Denise Dorpalen
First page: 54
Abstract: Adaptive reuse of built heritage is increasingly critical for reasons of sustainability, particularly in urban spaces. With increasing pressures for building and housing, the building and construction industry will likely continue to contribute 39% of all carbon emissions in the world, with operational emissions accounting for 28%. Further demolition, urban renewal and rebuilding not only obstruct pathways to decarbonisation but create shocks that disrupt and displace communities. We argue that it is essential to support built heritage beyond conventional urban renewal approaches and to position it as a critical community-based asset that can leverage local knowledge and promote a sustainable and more circular economy. However, such an agenda must acknowledge the challenges of adopting new innovative practices that can reduce strain on current material and social resources. This paper situates adaptive reuse as critical in strategies to reuse existing building stock and other broader sustainability movements, framing it from an economic angle. A case study approach explores adaptive reuse interventions and how these might be extended to other areas.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030054
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 55: Application of Hydrological Modeling Related
to the 2011 Disaster in the Mountainous Region of Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Authors: Marcia Chen, Marcio Cataldi, Cristiane Nunes Francisco
First page: 55
Abstract: Natural disasters have been responsible for thousands of deaths in recent decades that, added to the environmental, social and economic impacts, require the implementation of prevention strategies. The largest share of disasters is of hydrological origin. In this context, hydrological models are potential alternatives for monitoring and preventing events of this nature. The objective of this study was to analyze the applicability of the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the concentrated model SMAP (soil moisture accounting procedure) in predicting the extreme flood event that occurred in Brazil in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in 2011. The results showed that the mean relative error in calibration and validation was 12% and 53% for SMAP, and 18.46% and 88.73% for SWAT, respectively. The better performance of SMAP in validation integrated with its ease of data collection, simplicity of execution and semi-automatic calibration included in its routine, allows for the conclusion that this model proved to be more suitable for hydrological monitoring. In this study, for the first time, a model of SWAT’s complexity was applied to a watershed located in the mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, a region that, unfortunately, has accounted for thousands of deaths over the past decades associated with mass movements and floods. The SWAT model, besides being able to predict the level and flow of the main course of the river and its tributaries, also enables the calculation of sediment transport in extreme events. Looking from an operational point of view, the work clearly shows how poor hydro-meteorological monitoring, as is the case in this region, makes a good quality prediction for extreme events impossible. It was demonstrated that under these conditions, a simpler and concentrated modeling approach, such as the SMAP model, is able to obtain better results than SWAT.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-26
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030055
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 56: Climate Scenarios for Coastal Flood
Vulnerability Assessments: A Case Study for the Ligurian Coastal Region
Authors: Alice Re, Lorenzo Minola, Alessandro Pezzoli
First page: 56
Abstract: Extreme sea levels and coastal flooding are projected to be among the most uncertain and severe consequences of climate change. In response, a wide development of coastal vulnerability assessment methodologies has been observed in research to support societal resilience to future coastal flood risks. This work aims to explore the scope of application of index-based methodologies for coastal vulnerability assessment, in terms of their suitability to convey information on variations in climate variables potentially leading to sea-level changes and inundation. For this purpose, the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model was coupled for the first time with the ERA5 reanalysis and used to develop a case study assessment of the biophysical exposure component of vulnerability to coastal flooding for Liguria, an Italian coastal region facing the Mediterranean Sea. Different scenarios of wind speed and wave power were created in order to test the sensitivity of this approach to climate data inputs. The results support the applicability of this approach to provide a preliminary grasp of local vulnerability to coastal inundation. Yet, this work also highlights how the method’s data aggregation and indicator computation processes result in its insensitivity to wind and wave variations, and therefore in its unsuitability to reproduce climate scenarios. The implications of these findings for research methodology and regarding the operationalisation of vulnerability assessment results are discussed.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-01
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030056
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 57: Monitoring the Meteorological and Hydrological
Droughts in the Largest River Basin (Mahaweli River) in Sri Lanka
Authors: Udara Senatilleke, Jeewanthi Sirisena, Miyuru B. Gunathilake, Nitin Muttil, Upaka Rathnayake
First page: 57
Abstract: This study assessed the meteorological and hydrological droughts and their relationship over 30 years from 1985 to 2015 in the largest river basin (Mahaweli River Basin (MRB)) in Sri Lanka. Data from 14 rainfall, 5 temperature, and 5 streamflow stations in and near the MRB were used in the present study. Universal drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to assess meteorological droughts. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) was used in investigating hydrological droughts. Correlations between meteorological and hydrological droughts were obtained, annual variations were observed (in terms of SPI, SPEI, and SSI), and the spatial distributions of selected drought events were analyzed. Our results revealed that the highest correlation was found in long-term dry conditions in the wet zone. In addition, some negative correlations found showed the opposite behavior of correlations. Furthermore, in annual variations of droughts, extreme droughts were recorded in the dry zone as maximum values, while results were more prominent in the wet zone. In addition, the spatial distribution performed using SPI, SPEI, and SSI showed an extremely dry condition in 2004. Our findings are beneficial for policymaking and for the decision-makers in assessing meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the future.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030057
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 58: Characteristics of Compound Climate Extremes
and Impacts in Singapore, 1985–2020
Authors: Jianjun Yu, Anupam Kumar, Kanhu Charan Pattnayak, Jeff Obbard, Aurel Florian Moise
First page: 58
Abstract: Compound weather and climate extremes have amplified impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems across the world, including Singapore. To better understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of compound climate extremes, including concurrent rainfall and wind speed, as well as dry and hot conditions, we analyzed long-term observations from 11 selected meteorological stations over the period 1985–2020. The results revealed that the north and northeastern parts of Singapore were focal points for both types of compound extremes, with a higher frequency of occurrence than the southwest of the island. Concurrent rainfall and wind speed extremes were the most prominent in December and January thanks to the northeast monsoon, while dry and hot extremes were distributed mainly in the inter-monsoon season, with peaks in March and April. A notable upward trend was also detected for mild and moderate levels of both compound climate extremes over time. According to our review of the impacts, Singapore has benefited from investments in enhanced water infrastructure; water resource availability was less affected; and flash floods were not proportionally related to the severity of climate extremes. The forests in the urban landscape of Singapore also exhibit resilience to drought.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030058
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 59: Cut-off Lows over South Africa: A Review
Authors: Nkosinathi G. Xulu, Hector Chikoore, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, Thando Ndarana, Tshimbiluni P. Muofhe, Innocent L. Mbokodo, Rendani B. Munyai, Mukovhe V. Singo, Tumelo Mohomi, Sifiso M.S. Mbatha, Marshall L. Mdoka
First page: 59
Abstract: Every year, cut-off low (COL) pressure systems produce severe weather conditions and heavy rainfall, often leading to flooding, devastation and disruption of socio-economic activities in South Africa. COLs are defined as cold-cored synoptic-scale mid-tropospheric low-pressure systems which occur in the mid-latitudes and cause persistent heavy rainfall. As they occur throughout the year, these weather systems are important rainfall producing systems that are also associated with extreme cold conditions and snowfalls. An in-depth review of COLs is critical due to their high impacts which affect some parts of the country regularly, affecting lives and livelihoods. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the literature on COLs over the South African domain, whilst also comparing them with their Southern Hemisphere counterparts occurring in South America and Australia. We focus on the occurrence, development, propagation, dynamical processes and impacts of COLs on society and the environment. We also seek to understand stratospheric–tropospheric exchanges resulting from tropopause folding during the occurrence of COLs. Sometimes, COLs may extend to the surface, creating conditions conducive to extreme rainfall and high floods over South Africa, especially when impinged on the coastal escarpment. The slow propagation of COLs appears to be largely modulated by a quasi-stationary high-pressure system downstream acting as a blocking system. We also reviewed two severe COL events that occurred over the south and east coasts and found that in both cases, interactions of the low-level flow with the escarpment enhanced lifting and deep convection. It was also determined from the literature that several numerical weather prediction models struggle with placement and amounts of rainfall associated with COLs, both near the coast and on the interior plateau. Our study provides the single most comprehensive treatise that deals with COL characteristics affecting the South African domain.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030059
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 60: Reviewing the Status of Droughts, Early
Warning Systems and Climate Services in South India: Experiences Learned
Authors: Punnoli Dhanya, Vellingiri Geethalakshmi
First page: 60
Abstract: Drought is one of the most challenging disasters that impact the natural and cultural ecosystems across the world, especially in the climate dependent sectors of arid and semi-arid areas. The aim of this article is to share the experiences gained and enhance the readers’ awareness on the status of drought and process of the early warning systems (EWS) in south India. Drought status of three agroecologically different states is included in this article, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. As far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, Karur, Thuthukudi, Krishnagiri, Namakkal, Trichy and Thirunelveli districts are water scarce compared to other districts in the state. The districts such as Wayanad, Thiruvananthapuram, Idukki and Palakkad in Kerala have received lesser rainfall compared to the other parts of the state during the period 1981 to 2019. In Telangana, the mandals such as Nagarkurnool, Jogulamba-Gadwal, Wanaparthy, Mahabubnagar Nalgonda and Yedadri are frequently hit by dry spells and droughts. As a case study, weather early warning dissemination, carried out at Parambikulam Aliyar basin, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, during Khariff and Rabi seasons, using IMDs medium and extended range forecast is also elaborated in particular in the article. As far as the accuracy of forecast is concerned, probability of false detection (false alarm rate) was found to be 0.81 for Khariff and 0.30 for Rabi season, indicating the need for better performance in the accuracy of dry spell early warning, disaster preparedness and response. In-spite of this, access to early warning has supported the farmers during harvest and land preparation with a utility score of 72% and 59%, respectively. In Parambikulam Aliyar basin, remote sensing products such as MODIS-NDVI, NDWI and TWI was also used to identify the real-time progression of monthly vegetative condition for Kharif and Rabi seasons. NDVI values were used to monitor the district level vegetation condition and compared it with the drought year 2016, the difference in area under barren land was 76% less during Khariff, 2021 and 44% during Rabi, 2021.This study is a compilation of lessons learned from different states and the existing knowledge and practice in early warnings, and recommends the need for a holistic approach in drought and dry spell monitoring along with better accuracy and dissemination to minimize climate-related shocks in agriculture.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-06
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030060
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 61: Dynamic Modeling of the Trophic Status of an
Urban Tropical Wetland under ENSO Conditions
Authors: Leidy Gisselle García-León, Julio Eduardo Beltrán-Vargas, Carlos Alfonso Zafra-Mejía
First page: 61
Abstract: The climate variability associated with the ENSO phenomenon has a significant impact on wetlands, affecting the total precipitation input and hydrological flows of these ecosystems. The objective of this paper is to study the trophic status variation of an urban tropical wetland under ENSO conditions, through dynamic modeling. The results suggest an increase in precipitation, by 3.32 times, during the La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase. Wetland input total phosphorus (TP) concentrations are 1.85 times lower during La Niña. This is probably due to a dilution effect exerted by the increase in surface runoff volumes from the basin. The findings suggest a reduction in wetland hydraulic retention time (HRT) during La Niña (1.33 times) compared to El Niño. This trend causes the TP concentration inside the wetland to decrease, possibly due to an increase in the water volume stored (dilution), and by the exit of this nutrient due to a shorter hydraulic renewal (HRT/La Niña < HRT/El Niño). The occurrence of a high input of TP concentration to the wetland does not necessarily indicate a high trophic status index (TSI). This is because the trophic status of the wetland is possibly more associated with HRT rather than input TP concentration. The trophic status of the wetland during the La Niña tends to be eutrophic. Lastly, under ENSO scenarios, the use of Aizaki’s method is suggested, because it considers HRT as a decisive factor for the calculation of wetland trophic status.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-07
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030061
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 62: Can a Symbolic Mega-Unit of Radiative Forcing
(RF) Improve Understanding and Assessment of Global Warming and of
Mitigation Methods Using Albedo Enhancement from Algae, Cloud, and Land
(AEfACL)'
Authors: Kenneth D. Lightburn
First page: 62
Abstract: By expressing radiative forcing (RF) in a symbolic mega-unit we better communicate, to governing organizations and the public, the extent of global warming (GW) and the potency of mitigation methods while also ‘translating’ different GW measures to better explain their interrelationship. An easily visualized symbol that has been suggested is the net shading, or mega-unit, of RF of a “standard 1 km2 cumulus cloud over one day of −25 W/m2” (ScCd). As defined, ScCd is equal to 600,000 kWh and equivalent to Temporary heat radiation Equivalent Carbon (ThrEC) of 18,400 tons of carbon heat effect, or 67,300 tons of CO2 and an approximately 0.136 albedo increase, over 1 km2. Shading over the whole earth caused by clouds is estimated by NASA as −13 W/m2. The excess of solar radiation or Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) striking the earth was + 1.12 W/m2 in mid-2019 and has been continually increasing. Offsetting this requires the creation of additional reflective surfaces equivalent to 22.848 million square kilometers of ScCd. Such an increase could be provided by albedo enhancement from algae on the ocean surface, marine cloud brightening (MCB) or new marine cloud creation, or land area use that rejuvenates salt flats and similar locations (AEfACL). These are potentially politically acceptable and eventually could be achieved at large enough scale to be effective globally.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-07
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030062
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 63: Observation of an Extremely Dry Atmospheric
Air Column above Bern
Authors: Klemens Hocke, Wenyue Wang
First page: 63
Abstract: The water vapour column density or vertically integrated water vapour (IWV) ranges from about 8 mm in winter to about 25 mm in summer in Bern, Switzerland. However, there can be day episodes when IWV drops to 2 mm or even less so that the atmosphere is extremely dry. We selected an event in February 2021 when the tropospheric water radiometer TROWARA measured a mean IWV value of about 1.5 ± 0.2 mm for a time interval of about one day in Bern. The ECMWF reanalysis ERA5 indicated a slightly higher IWV value of about 2.2 ± 0.4 mm where the uncertainty is the standard deviation of IWV during the time of IWV depression. The ERA5 profiles of relative humidity and specific humidity during this episode are reduced by 50% and more compared to the monthly mean profiles. On a global map, it can be seen that Bern is within a mesoscale dry region on that day with descending wind. Back trajectory analysis gives the result that the dry air masses in Bern came from the North and the trajectories are descending in altitude so that dry air from the mid troposphere came into the lower troposphere. These descending air masses from the North explain the minimum of IWV observed in Bern on 13–14 February 2021. The surface climate in Switzerland was dominated by a cold wave at that time. At the same time, severe cold waves occurred in Greece and Northern America.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030063
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 64: D-SPARC: Rapid Field Albedo Measurement
Authors: Sushobhan Sen, Jeffery Roesler
First page: 64
Abstract: The albedo of surfaces in urban areas plays an important role in regulating the urban microclimate and needs to be measured. Artificial urban surfaces, e.g., pavements with lower albedo than natural surfaces such as grass or soil, are a key contributor to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. However, widespread measurement of pavement albedo in the field remains challenging due to limited available daylight hours to record the measurements, the need for clear sky conditions, and slow data collection speed. A new portable system called Discrete SPectrAl RefleCtometer (D-SPARC) was developed to overcome these difficulties. D-SPARC was calibrated in the lab using 25 concrete specimens of known albedo and found to be accurate to within ±0.05, which is similar or better than recently developed aerial or satellite methods. The calibrated D-SPARC device was then used to acquire measurements on ten pavement sections during both the day and night and compared to the results from an albedometer. The RMSE during the day was 0.06 and during the night was 0.02. Each measurement with D-SPARC took about 4 min per test location as compared to 15 min with the albedometer. D-SPARC can be used to conveniently and rapidly measure pavement albedo over a road network with reasonable accuracy and minimal traffic disruption.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-11
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030064
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 65: Application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach
(SLA) to Address Climate-Induced Risks through the Lens of Africa
Borderland
Authors: Aki Kogachi, Rajib Shaw
First page: 65
Abstract: The objective of this study is to gain a holistic and enhanced understanding of the characteristics of the livelihood of communities in the Liptako-Gourma region. This region, known for the tri-border area, has become the epicenter of the conflict since 2015. The study employs the Sustainable Livelihood Approach to guide survey results, as well as a focus group discussion. The results of the survey are analyzed to assess the linkage between climate-induced risks and development challenges in the region. Furthermore, the paper explores the interactions between climatic stresses and conflict risk. By taking the Liptako-Gourma region (Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso) as a focal study and analyzing the factors impacting the livelihoods of people in the region, a survey was conducted. It included questions related to agriculture, animal husbandry, and natural resource management, among other things. The survey had seven sections and was conducted with 287 people aged between 25 to 77 years from Bagawa and Tin-Akoff. Climate perceptions were evaluated through individual and group interviews. The result from the cohort study showed a close association between security and developmental challenges in the Liptako-Gourma region. This is due to the region’s reliance on agriculture and animal husbandry, which involves frequent migration and population movement across the borders. Furthermore, the study revealed that (1) climate-induced shocks are increasingly manifested, (2) the adaptive capacity to weather climate shock remains low, (3) mobility and migration is a common strategy, and (4) the conflict over the usage of natural resources exists; however, it is not the primary cause of conflicts.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030065
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 66: Salinity Intrusion Trends under the Impacts of
Upstream Discharge and Sea Level Rise along the Co Chien River and Hau
River in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta
Authors: Tuu Nguyen Thanh, Hiep Huynh Van, Hoang Vo Minh, Van Pham Dang Tri
First page: 66
Abstract: A one-dimensional hydraulic HEC-RAS model was developed to forecast the change in salinity in the tributaries of the Co Chien and Hau Rivers in Tra Vinh province, Vietnam. The boundary data includes river discharge at Can Tho and My Thuan, water levels, and salinity at coastal monitoring stations. Six monitoring stations along the Co Chien River and Hau River were selected to study salinity changes. Four scenarios for the period 2020–2050 were selected, including SLR17, SLR22, SLR26L, and SLR26H, corresponding to sea level rise (17, 22, and 26 cm) and upstream river discharge decrease (in the ranges of 100–128% and 80–117% at Can Tho and My Thuan, respectively) in the dry season based on new climate change scenarios in Vietnam and previous studies. The results highlight that when the average discharge at Can Tho and My Thuan reduces, the salinity increases more significantly than the impact of sea level rise. Salinity at the monitoring stations in Tra Vinh province is projected to increase within the ranges of 4–21% and 3–29% along the Co Chien River and Hau River, respectively. In addition, sea level rise is seen to affect the discharge distribution into the Co Chien River. It suggests an urgent need to raise farmers’ awareness of climate change adaptation, investment in production equipment, and appropriate regulation of riverbed mining and activities upstream in the Mekong River.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030066
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 67: Trend Analysis and Fluctuations of Winter
Temperature over Saudi Arabia
Authors: Motirh Al-Mutairi, Abdulhaleem Labban, Abdallah Abdeldym, Heshmat Abdel Basset
First page: 67
Abstract: The aim of this work is to study the variability of winter (monthly mean of DJF) air temperatures in Saudi Arabia. The study of the coefficient of variation (CV) of winter air temperature time series shows that the CV is a function of latitude, decreasing generally gradually from north to south. The highest values of CV during the winter season are mainly because of the migrating extratropical cyclones (Mediterranean cyclones) from west to east, and active subtropical jet, as well as the polar jet. The trend analysis illustrates that all stations have positive trends for the wintertime series. The study of decadal fluctuations in the behavior of winter temperature shows that the period from 1982 to 2010 is characterized in general by negative trend values in most northern stations of Saudi Arabia. In the middle of Saudi Arabia, negative trend values also appear but for the period 1983 to 2003. The southern and middle stations are distinguished by a positive trend during the period from 2003 to 2018.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030067
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 68: Mediterranean Influence on the Climatic Regime
over the Balkan Peninsula from 1901–2021
Authors: Elisaveta Peneva, Mirna Matov, Milen Tsekov
First page: 68
Abstract: The Balkan Peninsula is a geographical region under various large-scale climatic influences, one of the most significant being the Mediterranean Sea in the southwest and the continent in the northeast. The novelty of this study is that the border between the zones with prevailing maritime or continental climate conditions is clearly identified by the month with the highest precipitation during the year. We use the gridded data product TS_4.06 of the Climatic Research Unit for monthly precipitation to identify the timing of the maximum rainfall at different locations. The grid boxes with highest precipitation in the cold part of the year (October to March) are considered to be under prevailing Mediterranean influences and, on the contrary, the ones with the highest precipitation are in the warm part of the year (April to September); these are climates with prevailing continental characteristics. In general, this border separates the zones with Cs and Dw types of climates. Its spatial variability at a decadal time-scale is discussed for the period from 1901–2021 and a general weakening of the Mediterranean influence over the Balkan Peninsula is found. However, for the last three decades, from 1991–2021, the tendency is the opposite. A periodicity of ~20 years is identified, suggesting that during the decade of 2020–2030, the Mediterranean influence in this region will dominate.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-15
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030068
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 69: Wind Characteristics and Temporal Trends in
Eastern Paraná State, Brazil
Authors: Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi, Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho, Emerson Galvani, Antonio Carlos da Silva Oscar-Júnior, Bruno Serafini Sobral, Givanildo de Gois, Vitor Hugo Rosa Biffi, José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior
First page: 69
Abstract: The wind is one of the most important and studied variables globally, essential to several sectors, for example, energy. Therefore, this study assesses the wind regime and analysis trends in three locations within the Paraná state, Brazil. The historical series were recorded between 1976 and 2010 at conventional meteorological stations belonging to the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. WRPLOT version 8.0.0 software was used for elaborating wind roses and histograms in the annual and seasonal scales. Detection of trends and temporal rupture points was performed using different statistical methods (Run, Mann–Kendall, Pettitt and Shapiro–Wilk tests) for all meteorological stations. All statistical tests were conducted using the R software version 3.3.2. On a seasonal scale, summer and spring present the highest wind speeds in the Curitiba and Paranaguá stations due to meteorological systems on different scales, such as the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and frontal systems. The Mann–Kendall test revealed that Castro presented statistical significance in reducing wind speed, with a decrease of 0.23 m/s per decade for the annual scale and 0.23 m/s per decade during the autumn season. These ruptures indicated a decrease in wind speed in Curitiba and Paranaguá for the spring season. The Pettitt test revealed a break point detection in the data series in Curitiba station, likely due to urban expansion that started in the 1980s, reducing wind speed, especially in winter and spring. These trends and ruptures revealed a significant reduction in wind speed, possibly due to the interaction between natural climate changes and the increase in surface roughness resulting from land use and urbanization changes.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-15
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030069
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 70: Sea Level Variability in the Equatorial
Malacca Strait: The Influence of Climatic–Oceanographic Factors and
Its Implications for Tidal Properties in the Estuarine Zone
Authors: Ulung Jantama Wisha, Yusuf Jati Wijaya, Yukiharu Hisaki
First page: 70
Abstract: The sea level trend in the equatorial Malacca Strait is a significant issue that needs to be reviewed since it is an area of interest. Assessing its future impact on estuarine tidal characteristics is worth studying because it relates to the potency of coastal damages. This study aimed to discuss the relationship between sea level variations and anomalies and their possible triggering factors and to estimate the future impacts on the tidal properties in the estuarine zone. Tide gauge and altimetry data in the Tanjong Pagar site were used to assess the sea level trends over 27 years of observation (from 1992 to 2019). Both altimetry and tide gauge data showed an upward trend, with 0.24 cm/year and 0.39 cm/year, respectively. Due to the near-equatorial area of interest, sea level variability is more synchronized with ENSO rather than IOD. At some points, ENSO shapes the sea level fluctuation, with an R2 of less than 10%. For specific periods, the coupling effects between MJO and La Niña may trigger higher evaporation in the maritime continent, triggering increasing sea levels. Of particular concern, among the other assessed factors, the zonal currents and winds (wind-driven currents) are strongly correlated with sea level variations, primarily during the NE monsoon and the second transitional periods, with a determination coefficient of about 18–36%. As a result of sea level rises, it is estimated that tidal constituent amplitudes will increase by about 8.9% and 18.3% in 2050 and 2100, respectively. The increase in tidal range will possibly relate to the tidal bore passage in the Kampar estuary. Therefore, more advanced hydrodynamic modeling is necessary to determine the impact of sea level rises on tidal bore generation.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-16
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030070
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 71: The Little Ice Age and the Fall of the Ming
Dynasty: A Review
Authors: Ka-wai Fan
First page: 71
Abstract: Based on the climate proxy data, several recent studies have concluded that the Ming dynasty’s reign in China coincided with the Little Ice Age, a global crisis. In response, scholars have published several reports in recent years addressing this topic. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the current research findings in English regarding this subject and identifies existing research gaps. The author proposes that the impact of climate on different regions during the late Ming period remains largely underexplored. Furthermore, scholars must exercise caution when assuming that adverse climatic conditions uniformly impacted the Ming empire during the Little Ice Age. This paper also highlights the use of simplistic models by scholars linking cold and dry climates to crop failure, floods, droughts, population decline, and other factors. However, any straightforward models that presume causal determination risk ignoring historical facts.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030071
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 72: Analysis of Snow Cover in the Sibillini
Mountains in Central Italy
Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Andrea Catorci, Tiziana Panichella, Sara Moscatelli, Younes Hamed, Rim Missaoui, Gilberto Pambianchi
First page: 72
Abstract: Research on solid precipitation and snow cover, especially in mountainous areas, suffers from problems related to the lack of on-site observations and the low reliability of measurements, which is often due to instruments that are not suitable for the environmental conditions. In this context, the study area is the Monti Sibillini National Park, and it is no exception, as it is a mountainous area located in central Italy, where the measurements are scarce and fragmented. The purpose of this research is to provide a characterization of the snow cover with regard to maximum annual snow depth, average snow depth during the snowy period, and days with snow cover on the ground in the Monti Sibillini National Park area, by means of ground weather stations, and also analyzing any trends over the last 30 years. For this research, in order to obtain reliable snow cover data, only data from weather stations equipped with a sonar system and manual weather stations, where the surveyor goes to the site each morning and checks the thickness of the snowpack and records, it were collected. The data were collected from 1 November to 30 April each year for 30 years, from 1991 to 2020; six weather stations were taken into account, while four more were added as of 1 January 2010. The longer period was used to assess possible ongoing trends, which proved to be very heterogeneous in the results, predominantly negative in the case of days with snow cover on the ground, while trends were predominantly positive for maximum annual snow depth and distributed between positive and negative for the average annual snow depth. The shorter period, 2010–2022, on the other hand, ensured the presence of a larger number of weather stations and was used to assess the correlation and presence of clusters between the various weather stations and, consequently, in the study area. Furthermore, in this way, an up-to-date nivometric classification of the study area was obtained (in terms of days with snow on the ground, maximum height of snowpack, and average height of snowpack), filling a gap where there had been no nivometric study in the aforementioned area. The interpolations were processed using geostatistical techniques such as co-kriging with altitude as an independent variable, allowing fairly precise spatialization, analyzing the results of cross-validation. This analysis could be a useful tool for hydrological modeling of the area, as well as having a clear use related to tourism and vegetation, which is extremely influenced by the nivometric variables in its phenology. In addition, this analysis could also be considered a starting point for the calibration of more recent satellite products dedicated to snow cover detection, in order to further improve the compiled climate characterization.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030072
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 73: Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in
the Mountainous Region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Authors: Maria del Carmen Sanz Lopez, Jorge Luiz Diaz Pinaya, Augusto José Pereira Filho, Fe-lipe Vemado, Fábio Augusto Gomes Vieira Reis
First page: 73
Abstract: Extreme rainfall events cause diverse loss of life and economic losses. These disasters include flooding, landslides, and erosion. For these intense rainfall events, one can statistically estimate the time when a given rainfall volume will occur. Initially, this work estimated rainfall volumes for the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro, and the frequency with which rainfall events occur. For this, we analyzed daily precipitation data using the ANOBES method and the Gumbel statistical distribution to estimate return times. Extreme prec’ipitation volumes of up to 240 mm per day were identified in some locations, with 100 years or more return periods. On 11 January 2011 precipitation volumes were high, but on 12 January they were extreme, similar to the 100-year return time data. The analysis method presented enables the determination of the return time of heavy rainfall, assisting in the prevention of its effects. Knowledge of the atmospheric configuration enables decision support. The atmospheric systems that combined to cause the event were local circulations (orographic and sea breeze) and large-scale systems (SACZ and frontal systems).
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030073
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 74: Climate-Induced Non-Economic Loss and Damage:
Understanding Policy Responses, Challenges, and Future Directions in
Pacific Small Island Developing States
Authors: Alvin Chandra, Karen E. McNamara, Rachel Clissold, Tammy Tabe, Ross Westoby
First page: 74
Abstract: Despite mitigation and adaptation efforts, the residual risks of climate change will continue to impact the most vulnerable communities globally. Highly exposed regions, such as the Pacific Islands, will continue to experience profound negative loss and damage as a result of climate change, which will challenge current ways of life. Knowledge on the extent to which regional and national climate change polices can identify and respond to non-economic loss and damage (NELD) is limited. From the perspectives of stakeholders in the Pacific Islands region, this research aims to gain insights into how regional and national policies are responding to NELD, as the well as the barriers, shortcomings, and requirements for future responses. Utilising a mixed qualitative–quantitative approach, this research explores the perspectives of expert informants, including those from the government, donors and development partners, civil society, intergovernmental organisations, and other relevant bodies, such as universities. The key findings of this study indicate that current policy responses include a regional policy that integrates disaster and climate change losses, national efforts to preserve traditional and local knowledge, national adaptation and resilience planning, community-based projects, and relocation and resettlement. Additionally, NELD is a relatively new concept for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers, and it is difficult to conceptualise the diversity of issues related to NELD in the region. Owing to this poor understanding, a key gap relates to the dominance of the economic lens when characterising climate-induced impacts in the region. As such, there is a limited holistic consideration of climate change impacts, and thus a limited appreciation of the interrelated factors of NELD within policy responses that then cascade towards communities. Finally, the paper outlines key policy insights as follows: policies on integration, adaptation, resilience planning, relocation and resettlement have advanced; the economic lens dominates when characterising climate-induced impacts on the region; there is a limited appreciation of the interrelated factors of NELD; and there exists a need to account for residual and intangible losses to land, culture, traditional knowledge, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human agency. The insights gained from this research can provide a practical basis for guiding local to regional action and help support and design comprehensive risk management solutions in order to address NELD associated with climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-03-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030074
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 3 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 26: White Identity and Climate Change Skepticism:
Assessing the Mediating Roles of Social Dominance Orientation and
Conspiratorial Ideation
Authors: Matthew Grindal, Dilshani Sarathchandra, Kristin Haltinner
First page: 26
Abstract: Prior research has found that white people are more likely to be climate change skeptics. In much of this prior work, white identity is treated as a categorical label, limiting the theoretical and empirical understanding of this relationship. Drawing on survey data from a US national sample of 933 white young adults, we theorize that white identity is a developmental process where people explore the meanings of their racial identity and commit to a white identity marked by enhanced levels of social dominance orientation and conspiratorial ideation, two social-psychological constructs consistently associated with climate change skepticism. Using regression analyses, we tested a mediation model that a strong white identity would increase climate change skepticism by enhancing one’s social dominance orientation and conspiratorial ideation. We found partial support for our model. While a strong white identity was positively associated with social dominance orientation and conspiratorial ideation, only social dominance orientation increased climate change skepticism. Conspiratorial ideation reduced climate change skepticism. We discuss the implications of our findings for the climate change literature as well as how our findings can inform policies that could reduce climate change skepticism among white people.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020026
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 27: Precipitation Variability for Protected Areas
of Primary Forest and Pastureland in Southwestern Amazônia
Authors: Rodrigo Martins Moreira, Bruno César dos Santos, Rafael Grecco Sanches, Vandoir Bourscheidt, Fernando de Sales, Stefan Sieber, Paulo Henrique de Souza
First page: 27
Abstract: Daily and monthly rainfall data provided by surface rain gauges in the Amazon Basin are sparse and defective, making it difficult to monitor rainfall patterns for certain portions of its territory, in this sense, estimations of precipitation from remote sensing calibrated with rain gauge data are key to overcome this problem. This paper presents a spatiotemporal analysis of the precipitation distribution for Rondônia State, in southwestern Amazonia. Data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation and Station (CHIRPS) were analyzed, using a pooled time analysis of a forty-year period (1981–2020). Data obtained from remote sensing were validated by rain gauges distributed over the study region. Pixel-by-pixel trend analyzes were developed by applying the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope test to study the magnitude of the trend. The analysis revealed that CHIRPS presents a tendency to underestimate precipitation values in most cases. Among the metrics, mean values between very good (<±15%) and good (±15–±35%) were observed using PBIAS; mean RMSE values range from 57.8 mm to 107.9 mm; an average agreement level of 0.9 and an average SES of 0.5; and good fit for the linear regression model (average R2 > 0.70) for about 64.7% of the stations. Sen’ slope spatialization results show a reduction of approximately −15 mm year−1, with decrease mainly in the Northern Region of Rondônia, which has extensive areas where the native forest has been replaced by pasture.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-17
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020027
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 28: Impact of Blue Space Geometry on Urban Heat
Island Mitigation
Authors: Petros Ampatzidis, Carlo Cintolesi, Tristan Kershaw
First page: 28
Abstract: A growing body of literature recognises the importance of nature-based solutions in providing resilience to the effects of climate change by mitigating urban heat islands. However, a knowledge gap exists regarding the contribution of blue spaces to the urban environment. Recent evidence suggests that blue spaces within urban canyons can promote pollutant removal via the vertical transport of air under certain conditions, but this is inconclusive. Using a numerical solver that accounts for evaporation effects, we investigate the influence of blue space size and shape on the in-canyon flow structure, temperature and water vapour distribution. Simulations were performed for water bodies of varying size and shape at different temperatures compared to the surrounding air. Results suggest that inadequately sized warmer water bodies are unable to promote sufficient vertical transport for pollutant removal, leading to overturning and increased temperature and humidity levels at the pedestrian level, thereby worsening environmental conditions and increasing the risk of heat-related illness and mortality. Hence, larger water bodies are better suited to nocturnal transport of pollutants and accumulated warm air away from the urban surface, while smaller water bodies are better suited to providing localised evaporative cooling. Lastly, irregular water bodies may have a greater cooling effect across a larger area.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020028
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 29: Opportunities for Post−COP26 Governance
to Facilitate the Deployment of Low−Carbon Energy Infrastructure: An
Open Door Policy
Authors: Muhammad Imran, Shiraz Khan, Khalid Zaman, Muhammad Siddique, Haroon ur Rashid Khan
First page: 29
Abstract: Temperatures worldwide continue to climb, while carbon emissions have exceeded previous records. To achieve environmental sustainability, countries with the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement (COP26) demonstrate sophisticated technical expertise and deploy environmentally driven technologies, such as greenfield investment and renewable energy infrastructure. This proposal presents an intriguing opportunity for policymakers to identify the distinct characteristics of institutional reforms and green energy sources that may be used to mitigate carbon emissions. Governance regulatory factors, foreign direct investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption (REC), research and development expenditures, urbanization, and carbon emissions are examined in Pakistan. The study estimated the short- and long-run association between the variables using the ARDL bounds testing method for 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. In the short run, in terms of carbon emissions and economic output, the country has an upturned cord environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The race-to-the-bottom concept holds for countries with U-shaped EKCs in the long term. The negative correlation between overseas investment and environmental damage supports the environmental halo hypothesis. Investment in research and technology may reduce emissions, even though urbanization increases them. Future and present REC are often intertwined with carbon footprints. Carbon emissions are also strongly connected with indicators of institutional quality (IQ), such as procedural efficiency, administrative effectiveness, and political unrest. The research findings demonstrated unidirectional Granger causality running from urbanization, government effectiveness, economic growth, and R&D expenditures to carbon emissions to validate urban-led emissions, institutional-led emissions, growth-led emissions, and innovation-led emissions in a country. Furthermore, R&D expenditure Granger causality was linked to inbound FDI, while government effectiveness Granger causality was linked to REC and R&D expenditures. Following the COP26 guidelines for achieving shared prosperity, the study concluded that good governance reforms, R&D expenditures, greenfield investment, and REC promote environmental sustainability and maintain air quality.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020029
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 30: Apparent Temperature Modifies the Effects of
Air Pollution on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Cape Town, South
Africa
Authors: Bukola G. Olutola, Nandi S. Mwase, Joyce Shirinde, Janine Wichmann
First page: 30
Abstract: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the top cause of mortality and a main contributor to disability globally. The evidence so far is varied on whether cold or heat modifies the CVD effects of air pollution. Weather conditions and air pollution sources and levels are different in different countries. Studies in low-and middle-income countries are lacking. Mortality data were obtained from Statistics South Africa. Air pollution and meteorological data were obtained from the South African Weather Service. A time-stratified case–crossover epidemiological design was applied. The association between air pollutants (PM10, NO2 and SO2) and CVD mortality was investigated using conditional logistic regression models. Susceptibility by sex and age groups was investigated. In total, 54,356 CVD deaths were included in the 10-year study. The daily PM10, NO2 and SO2 levels exceeded the daily WHO guidelines on 463, 421 and 8 days of the 3652 days, respectively. Higher air pollution risks were observed in this study compared to those reported in meta-analyses. In general, the elderly and females seemed to be vulnerable to air pollutants, especially at high and moderate apparent temperature levels. Harvesting effects were observed at longer lags. The results can be used to develop an early warning system for the city.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-19
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020030
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 31: Evaluation of the Impact of Seasonal
Agroclimatic Information Used for Early Warning and Farmer
Communities’ Vulnerability Reduction in Southwestern Niger
Authors: Tinni Halidou Seydou, Alhassane Agali, Sita Aissatou, Traore B. Seydou, Lona Issaka, Bouzou Moussa Ibrahim
First page: 31
Abstract: In Niger (a fully Sahelian country), the use of climate information is one of the early warning strategies (EWSs) for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in farmer communities. It helps farmers to better anticipate risks and choose timely alternative options that can allow them to generate more profit. This study assesses the impacts of the use of climate information and services that benefit end-users. Individual surveys and focus groups were conducted with a sample of 368 people in eight communes in Southwestern Niger. The survey was conducted within the framework of the ANADIA project implemented by the National Meteorological Direction (NMD) of Niger. The survey aims to identify different types of climate services received by communities and evaluates the major benefits gained from their use. Mostly, the communities received climate (73.6%) and weather (99%) information on rainfall, temperature, dust, wind, clouds, and air humidity. Few producers in the area (10%) received information on seasonal forecasts of the agrometeorological characteristics of the rainy season. The information is not widely disseminated in the villages during the roving seminars conducted by the NMD. For most people, this information is highly relevant to their needs because of its practical advice for options to be deployed to mitigate disasters for agriculture, livestock, health, water resources, and food security. In those communities, 82% of farmers have (at least once) changed their routine practices as a result of the advice and awareness received according to the climate information. The information received enables farmers (64.4%) to adjust their investments according to the profile of the upcoming rainfall season. The use of climate information and related advice led to an increase of about 64 bunches (equivalent to 10 bags of 100 kg) in annual millet production, representing an income increase of about 73,000 FCFA from an average farmland of 3 ha per farmer. In addition, the use of climate information helps to reduce the risks of floods and droughts, which often cause massive losses to crop production, animal and human life, infrastructure, materials, and goods. It has also enabled communities to effectively manage seeds and animal foods and to plan social events, departures and returns to rural exodus. These analyses confirm that the use of climate information serves as an EWS that contributes to increasing the resilience of local populations in the Sahel.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020031
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 32: The Changing Nature of Hazardous Weather and
Implications for Transportation: Example from Oklahoma, USA
Authors: Esther Mullens, Renee McPherson
First page: 32
Abstract: Central Oklahoma is undergoing investment in new intermodal transportation and rehabilitation of its infrastructure. Despite a highly variable historical climate, future changes resulting from anthropogenic climate change may be outside of the range for which infrastructure was designed. We examined 21st century trends, focusing on weather and climate extremes of demonstrated importance to transportation professionals as identified through expert input. We assessed trends from a suite of 15 global climate models (GCMs) using two emissions scenarios and two high-resolution statistically downscaled datasets. This ensemble provided a quantitative range for potential future climate conditions whilst revealing uncertainties associated with different models and downscaling methods. Our results support the general consensus of a reduction in the frequency of cold temperatures, freeze–thaw cycles, and winter weather; however, for the latter, there is not necessarily a reduction in intensity. Extreme heat days (e.g., days ≥100 °F) increased by factors of 3–6, with this upper range associated with high greenhouse gas emissions, while the seasonal duration of extreme heat extended by 4–10 weeks. Projected return intervals for heavy rainfall increased in frequency and magnitude in the mid and late 21st century. Although the contribution of the emissions pathway to these changes is evident, different extreme value distributions and the varying simulations of precipitation from the GCMs have a large effect on magnitudes, leading to a range of possible futures to consider in infrastructure design. Precipitation metrics, particularly at the extremes, were more sensitive to the selection of downscaled data, as compared with temperature metrics. Our approach represents a resource for transportation professionals seeking to identify changing risk probabilities at regional to local scales, as a precursor to planning and adaptation.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-20
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020032
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 33: An Assessment of the Present Trends in
Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Kazakhstan
Authors: Vitaliy Salnikov, Yevgeniy Talanov, Svetlana Polyakova, Aizhan Assylbekova, Azamat Kauazov, Nurken Bultekov, Gulnur Musralinova, Daulet Kissebayev, Yerkebulan Beldeubayev
First page: 33
Abstract: The article presents the results of a study on the assessment of modern space–time trends of extreme values of air temperature and precipitation in 42 meteorological stations throughout Kazakhstan for the period from 1971 to 2020. Spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of specialized climatic indices was recommended by the WMO climatology commission and an assessment of their trends was carried out. Spatial heterogeneity was revealed in terms of the degree of manifestation of changes and trends. Temperature indices are shown to confirm the overall warming trend. The division of the territory of Kazakhstan by the degree of manifestation of climate change into the southwestern and northeastern half was revealed. Extreme trends are most pronounced in the southwestern half, where a significant trend has been identified both for an increase in extremely high daytime and extremely low night temperatures. The calculated trends in temperature indices are generally significant, but the significance is mainly not ubiquitous; the trends are significant only in certain parts of Kazakhstan. WSDI and CSDI trends were found to confirm a widespread increase in the overall duration of heat waves and a reduction in the overall duration of cold waves. No significant extreme effects were found in the sediments. It is confirmed that Kazakhstan has weak, statistically insignificant, positive and negative trends in the maximum duration of the non-traveling period. Precipitation index trends, unlike temperature ones, are statistically insignificant in most of the country.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-23
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020033
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 34: Efficiency of the NWC SAF Version 2021 CRRPh
Precipitation Product: Comparison against Previous NWC SAF Precipitation
Products and the Influence of Topography
Authors: Athanasios Karagiannidis, José Alberto Lahuerta, Xavier Calbet, Llorenç Lliso, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Pilar Ripodas
First page: 34
Abstract: The algorithm of the Convective Rainfall Rate with Microphysical Properties (CRRPh) product of the 2021 version of the Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) presents innovative characteristics. It was developed employing principal components analysis to reduce the number of utilized parameters and uses the same mathematical scheme for day and night, simulating the missing visual channels and satellite-derived cloud water path information that is unavailable during nighttime. Applying adequate statistical methodologies and scores and using rain gauge data as ground truth, it is shown that the new algorithm appears to be significantly improved compared to its predecessors in regard to the delineation of the precipitation areas. In addition, it minimizes the day–night difference in the estimation efficiency, which is a remarkable achievement. The new product suffers from slightly higher errors in the precipitation accumulations. Finally, it is shown that topography does not seem to affect the estimation efficiency of the product. In light of these results, it is argued that, overall, the new algorithm outperforms its predecessors and, possibly after adequate adaptations, can be used as a real-time total precipitation product.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-25
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020034
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 35: Recent Warming Trends in the Arabian Sea:
Causative Factors and Physical Mechanisms
Authors: Jiya Albert, Venkata Sai Gulakaram, Naresh Krishna Vissa, Prasad K. Bhaskaran, Mihir K. Dash
First page: 35
Abstract: In recent years, and particularly from 2000 onwards, the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been acting as a major sink of ocean heat that is clearly visible in the sub-surface warming trend. Interestingly, a part of the NIO—the Arabian Sea (AS) sector—witnessed dramatic variations in recent sub-surface warming that has direct repercussion on intense Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity. This study investigated the possible causative factors and physical mechanisms towards the multi-decadal warming trends in surface and sub-surface waters over the AS region. Responsible factors towards warming are examined using altimetric observations and reanalysis products. This study used ORAS5 OHC (Ocean Heat Content), derived meridional and zonal heat transport, currents, temperature, salinity, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and air-sea fluxes to quantify the OHC build-up and its variability at water depths of 700 m (D700) and 300 m (D300) during the past four decades. The highest variability in deeper and upper OHC is noticed for the western and southern regions of the Indian Ocean. The warming trend is significantly higher in the deeper regions of AS compared to the upper waters, and relatively higher compared to the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Increased OHC in AS show good correlation with decreased OLR in the past 20 years. An analysis of altimetric observations revealed strengthening of downwelling Kelvin wave propagation leading to warming in eastern AS, mainly attributed due to intrusion of low saline water from BoB leading to stratification. Rossby wave associated with deepening of thermocline warmed the southern AS during its propagation. Heat budget analysis reveals that surface heat fluxes play a dominant role in warming AS during the pre-monsoon season. Increasing (decreasing) trend of surface heat fluxes (vertical entrainment) during 2000–2018 played a significant role in warming the southeastern sector of AS.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-29
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020035
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 36: Hydrometeorological Conditions of the Volga
Flow Generation into the Caspian Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum
Authors: Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova
First page: 36
Abstract: The goal of this study is to evaluate annual and seasonal inflow from the Volga catchment area to the Caspian Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM ~21,000 years ago) using paleoclimate modeling data. The first approach is based on the LGM simulation by the general circulation models (GCMs) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) and the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We used four GCMs: INM-CM4-8, MIROC-ES2L, AWI-ESM1-1-LR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR. The second approach is based on the spatially distributed process-based runoff generation model using PMIP4-CMIP6 model data as boundary conditions. The use of the hydrological ECOMAG model allows us to refine estimates of the Volga runoff in comparison to GCM calculations by considering seasonal features of runoff generation related to periglacial vegetation distribution, permafrost, and streamflow transformation along the channel network. The LGM is characterized by a high uncertainty in meteorological values calculated for the Volga basin using various GCMs. The share of runoff from the three most flooded months from the annual calculated in the LGM was 95%, according to INM-CM4-8, while other GCMs ranged from 69–78%. Three GCMs (MIROC-ES2L, AWI-ESM1-1-LR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR) showed 83–88% of the present-day value of precipitation in the Volga basin during cooling for more than 10 °C, while INM-CM4-8 showed a two-fold decrease. According to hydrological modeling results using data from three models, the annual Volga runoff was significantly higher than the present-day value, and, when using data from INM-CM4-8, it was lower.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-02
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020036
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 37: Macro-Regional Strategies, Climate Policies
and Regional Climatic Governance in the Alps
Authors: Valentina Cattivelli
First page: 37
Abstract: This paper describes the macro-regional governance framework behind the climate adaptation policies that are currently in place in the Alpine area. Through this discussion, it specifically considers the implications of the regional governance of South Tyrol and Lombardy as case studies. Despite rising concern at the European level, there are still no specific guidelines in place for climate change governance at the macro-regional level. Macro-regions encompass multiple regions that have certain shared morphological characteristics. To address climate changes that occur here, they adopt optional larger-scale strategies without adequately considering territorial and governmental specificities at the regional level. Each individual region adopts specific climate adaptation strategies to deal with the challenges of the territories they govern, without considering the effects on their neighbours, decentralises climate policies to the lowest tiers of government, and encourages participation from individuals and non-governmental organisations. The Alpine macro-region is governed by three separate international/transnational institutions at the macro-regional level and is subject to different regulations from each of the 48 regions/autonomous provinces. One of these regions is Lombardy, which is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change due to having the highest values for land consumption and pollution in Italy. From the administrative point of view, it is an ordinary region, which means that it has the same legislative competences of the other Italian regions. South Tyrol is entirely mountainous. Being an autonomous province, it benefits from greater legislative autonomy than ordinary regions. Based on documental analysis of climate adaptation strategies, findings demonstrate that the preferred governance structure involves the presence of a coordinating institution (such as the province in South Tyrol or the region in Lombardy) that decides climate action, along with several other local institutions and stakeholders that have less decision-making power. Its preferred mechanism for addressing specific climate challenges is the definition of specific regulations and the draft of regional and mono-sectoral plans. These regulations do not relate strongly to wider-scale strategies at the macro-regional level, but are inspired by their principles and priorities. At both definition and implementation levels, the participation of local organisations is limited and not incentivised. Administratively, South Tyrol enjoys greater autonomy, whereas Lombardy must comply more closely with state regulations that limit its decision-making freedom.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-03
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020037
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 38: Heatwave Variability and Structure in South
Africa during Summer Drought
Authors: Innocent L. Mbokodo, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, Thando Ndarana, Sifiso M. S. Mbatha, Tshimbiluni P. Muofhe, Mukovhe V. Singo, Nkosinathi G. Xulu, Tumelo Mohomi, Kingsley K. Ayisi, Hector Chikoore
First page: 38
Abstract: Pronounced subsidence leading to summer drought over southern Africa causes warmer than average surface air temperatures or even heatwave (HW) conditions. We investigated the occurrence of HWs during the summer drought over South Africa based on station data and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalyses. Temperature observations from the South African Weather Service were analyzed for seasonality and long-term trends (1981–2020) as background to the occurrence and variability of HWs. We focused on three severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced drought seasons, i.e., 1982/83, 1991/92, and 2015/16, to investigate HW characteristics. While 1997/98 was among the strongest El Niño seasons, the impacts were not as severe because it coincided with an intense Angola low, which allowed for rain-bearing cloud bands to form. Results showed that the hottest months were spread across the austral summer season from December to February. Regions experiencing high mean maximum temperatures and high HW frequencies exhibited a strong ENSO signal, with record HWs occurring during 2015/16. The establishment and persistence of a middle-level high-pressure system over Botswana/Namibia (Botswana High) appears to trigger the longest-lasting HWs during drought seasons. The Botswana high is usually coupled with a near-surface continental heat low and/or tropical warm air advection towards the affected region. It was also found that intense ENSO-induced drought events coincided with high HW frequency over South Africa, such as during 1982/83, 1991/92, and the recent 2015/16 events. The results of this study contribute to understanding drought and heat wave dynamics in a region experiencing rapid warming as a result of climate change.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-05
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020038
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 39: Flood Resilience Assessment and Mapping: A
Case Study from Australia’s Hawkesbury-Nepean Catchment
Authors: Imogen Schwarz, Mark Ziegelaar, Matthew Kelly, Andrew B. Watkins, Yuriy Kuleshov
First page: 39
Abstract: Floods are the most common and costliest natural hazard in Australia. However, the Flood Resilience Assessments (FReAs) employed to manage them lack a focus on adaptive capacity and tend not to be incorporated into established flood risk frameworks. This leaves potential for Australian FReAs to make better use of a methodology which holistically incorporates more accurate flood resilience characterisations into flood risk frameworks. In this study, a FReA and mapping for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Catchment (HNC), a flood-prone region in Australia, were conducted. Nine flood resilience indicators were selected to derive the Flood Resilience Index (FReI). Results demonstrated that Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) on or near the floodplain, located near the eastern border of the HNC, present moderate to very high levels of resilience due to increased socio-economic development and urbanisation in the region. Ultimately, this novel FReI can contribute to knowledge bolstering flood resilience in the HNC, as well as assist in flood risk reduction. Additionally, the developed scalable and replicable methodology can be applied to other flood-prone regions of Australia.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-07
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020039
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 40: Climate-Related Co-Benefits and the Case of
Swedish Policy
Authors: Mikael Karlsson, Nils Westling, Oskar Lindgren
First page: 40
Abstract: There is strong scientific evidence for the existence of the significant economic value of several climate-related co-benefits. However, these are seldom recognised in policy-making, and knowledge is still scarce on some co-benefit types and categories. To identify research needs and highlight policy-making opportunities, we propose a new framework and three-type-taxonomy of climate-related co-benefits. We define climate policy co-benefits, such as improved air quality, as ‘Type 1’; co-benefits for climate objectives from policy-making in other fields, such as taxation, as ‘Type 2’; and co-benefits from policies designed to achieve multiple objectives as ‘Type 3’. In order to apply the framework and to analyse how co-benefits have been regarded in policy-making in a climate pioneering country, we also explore the case of Sweden. It is shown that several co-benefits exist, but that these are overlooked almost entirely in policy-making, constituting a bias against climate mitigation. In order to counteract this problem, the article presents a number of recommendations, including a call to researchers to identify and quantify additional co-benefits and to policy-makers on governance reforms, including the need to organise policy-making processes and set decision criteria that promote the consideration of co-benefits.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020040
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 41: Comparison of Flood Frequency at Different
Climatic Scenarios in Forested Coastal Watersheds
Authors: Bhattarai, Parajuli, To
First page: 41
Abstract: Climate change-induced extreme precipitation causes coastal flooding. A streamflow simulation in coastal watersheds, Wolf River Watershed (WRW) and Jourdan River Watershed (JRW), was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to compare variation in flow at different climates and to analyze the flood frequency. Baseline models were auto-calibrated with SWAT calibration and uncertainty programs (SWAT-CUP). Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), defined as the objective function in SWAT-CUP, ranged from 0.8 to 0.7 in WRW and from 0.55 to 0.68 in JRW during the calibration–validation process. Results indicated reliability of the model performances. Monthly averaged baseline flow was 1% greater than historical and 8.9% lower than future climate in WRW. In JRW, monthly averaged baseline flow was 11% greater than historical and 5.7% lower than future climate. Flood frequency analysis showed the highest 1% exceedance probability in annual maximum series (AMS) of baseline model in WRW, whereas AMS of projected model was estimated the highest in JRW. This study aids in preparing for future flood management.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-09
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020041
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 42: Amplification of Extreme Hot Temperatures over
Recent Decades
Authors: Nir Y. Krakauer
First page: 42
Abstract: While global warming is mostly conceptualized in terms of increases in mean temperature, changes in the most extreme conditions encountered often have disproportionate impacts. Here, a measure of warming amplification is defined as the change in the highest yearly temperature (denoted TXx), representing extreme heat, minus that in the 80th percentile daily high temperature (Tmax80), which represents typical summer conditions. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis, over 1959–2021, warming of TXx averaged 1.56 K over land areas, whereas warming of Tmax80 averaged 1.60 K. However, the population-weighted mean warming of TXx significantly exceeded warming of Tmax80 (implying positive amplification) over Africa, South America, and Oceania. Where available, station temperature observations generally showed similar trends to ERA5. These findings provide a new target for climate model calibration and insight for evaluating the changing risk of temperature extremes.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020042
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 43: Ten Lessons for Effective Place-Based Climate
Adaptation Planning Workshops
Authors: Marc J. Stern, Kristin F. Hurst, Jennifer J. Brousseau, Caleb O’Brien, Lara J. Hansen
First page: 43
Abstract: Community efforts to consider climate change within local planning processes are increasingly common. Place-based climate adaptation workshops are commonly employed tools within these larger processes. The research, to date, on these phenomena has yielded mixed results, and the empirical evidence regarding what makes these workshops more or less effective has been mostly based on small samples in disparate contexts. In an effort to seek consensus regarding what factors lead to effective workshop outcomes, including participant learning and the motivation to take action; improved adaptation planning processes and implementation; and the development or strengthening of positive relationships between the participants, twenty-two experienced climate adaptation workshop facilitators participated in a Delphi study involving iterative surveys followed by focus groups. In this short report, we present a synthesis of consensus-based recommendations resulting from the Delphi study for enhancing place-based climate adaptation workshop outcomes. These recommendations address recruitment; fitting the local context; adequately preparing the participants; clarifying the objectives; facilitation strategies; promoting local leadership, efficacy and accountability; and providing post-workshop support. We discuss the role of these strategies in developing feelings of collective efficacy, local leadership and accountability through social learning.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-10
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020043
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 44: A Comparison of Wave Spectra during
Pre-Monsoon and Post-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones under an Intense Positive
IOD Year 2019
Authors: Mourani Sinha, Somnath Jha, Anupam Kumar
First page: 44
Abstract: The impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on the generation and intensity of tropical cyclones under the influence of monsoons is explored. The standardized sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are computed for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months for the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (AS) from 1971 to 2020 and relationships are analyzed with the frequency of tropical cyclones for the neutral, positive and negative IOD years. Ocean states are sensitive to cyclonic conditions exhibiting a complex spectral distribution of the wave energy. Due to a tropical cyclone, the surface waves remain under high wind forcing conditions for prolonged periods generating a huge amount of energy. The spectral wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) is used to generate the energy density spectra during FANI (26 April–5 May 2019), which was a pre-monsoon extreme severe cyclonic storm, and BULBUL (5–12 November 2019), which was a post-monsoon very severe cyclonic storm in the BOB region. This study aims to estimate the intensity of wave energy during tropical cyclones in the pre- and post-monsoon months for 2019 (an extremely positive IOD year).
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020044
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 45: Long-Term Seasonal Drought Trends in the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
Authors: Sherly Shelton, Ross D. Dixon
First page: 45
Abstract: In recent years, drought events have influenced agriculture, water-dependent industries, and energy supply in many parts of the world. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is particularly susceptible to drought events due to large-scale monsoon circulation anomalies. Using the 0.5 × 0.5 resolution rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data set from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), we assessed the changes in seasonal drought variation and effects of climate variables on drought over the CPEC for the period of 1980 to 2018 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Our results show a statistically significant negative trend of SPEI over the hyper-arid region for two monsoons (December–February and June–September) and intra-monsoonal seasons (March–May and October–November), suggesting that the hyper-arid region (southern and southwestern part of the CPEC) is experiencing more frequent drought. A high probability for the occurrence of winter (30–35%) and summer (20–25%) droughts are observed in hyper-arid regions and gradually decreases from south to north of the CPEC. Decreasing seasonal rainfall and increasing potential evapotranspiration with increasing temperature in hyper-arid and arid regions resulted in frequent drought events during the winter monsoon season (from December to February). The findings from this study provide a theoretical basis for the drought management of the CPEC and a framework for understanding changes in drought in this region from climate projections.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-12
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020045
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 46: Modelling Drought Risk Using Bivariate Spatial
Extremes: Application to the Limpopo Lowveld Region of South Africa
Authors: Murendeni Maurel Nemukula, Caston Sigauke, Hector Chikoore, Alphonce Bere
First page: 46
Abstract: Weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and floods are projected to become more frequent and intense in several regions. There is compelling evidence indicating that changes in climate and its extremes over time influence the living conditions of society and the surrounding environment across the globe. This study applies max-stable models to capture the spatio–temporal extremes with dependence. The objective was to analyse the risk of drought caused by extremely high temperatures and deficient rainfall. Hopkin’s statistic was used to assess the clustering tendency before using the agglomerative method of hierarchical clustering to cluster the study area into n=3 temperature clusters and n=3 precipitation clusters. For the precipitation and temperature data, the values of Hopkin’s statistic were 0.7317 and 0.8446, respectively, which shows that both are significantly clusterable. Various max-stable process models were then fitted to each cluster of each variable, and the Schlather model with several covariance functions was found to be a good fit on both datasets compared to the Smith model with the Gaussian covariance function. The modelling approach presented in this paper could be useful to hydrologists, meteorologists and climatologists, including decision-makers in the agricultural sector, in enhancing their understanding of the behaviour of drought caused by extremely high temperatures and low rainfall. The modelling of these compound extremes could also assist in assessing the impact of climate change. It can be seen from this study that the size, including the topography of the location (cluster/region), provides important information about the strength of the extremal dependence.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-13
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020046
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 47: Subseasonal Variation in the Winter ENSO-NAO
Relationship and the Modulation of Tropical North Atlantic SST Variability
Authors: Wenjun Zhang, Feng Jiang
First page: 47
Abstract: The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been controversially discussed for several decades, which exhibits prominent seasonality and nonstationarity. During early winter, there appears a positive ENSO-NAO relationship, while this relationship reverses its sign in late winter. Here, we show that this subseasonal variation in the ENSO-NAO relationship could be attributed to the different mechanisms involved in early and late winters. In early winter, the positive linkage between the ENSO and NAO could be simply understood as resulting from the changes in tropical Walker circulation and the associated atmospheric meridional circulation over the North Atlantic. In the following late winter, an opposite NAO-like response appears as the large-scale Pacific–North Atlantic teleconnection pattern fully establishes and evident sea surface temperature anomalies occur over the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We further show that the phase shift in NAO during ENSO during late winter is largely contributed by the establishment of the ENSO-associated NTA SST anomaly via its excited convection in the subtropical Atlantic. The competing roles of mechanisms explain the subseasonal variation in the ENSO-NAO relationship from early to late winter, providing useful information for seasonal prediction over the North Atlantic–European region.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-02-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11020047
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 2 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 24: Forecasting Impacts on Vulnerable Shorelines:
Vulnerability Assessment along the Coastal Zone of Messolonghi
Area—Western Greece
Authors: Eleni Filippaki, Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Yannis Bassiakos
First page: 24
Abstract: The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messolonghi area, western Greece, consists of low-relief beaches, containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact that, in combination with the rising sea levels and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal erosion. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an “index” that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here, the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose was employed, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range, to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of the Messolonghi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea-level-rise scenarios. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying coastal areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptation options to overcome the impact of sea-level rise on vulnerable areas, similar to the coastal zone of Messolonghi.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-14
DOI: 10.3390/cli11010024
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 1 (2023)
- Climate, Vol. 11, Pages 25: Towards a Safe Hydrogen Economy: An Absolute
Climate Sustainability Assessment of Hydrogen Production
Authors: Kevin Dillman, Jukka Heinonen
First page: 25
Abstract: Policymakers and global energy models are increasingly looking towards hydrogen as an enabling energy carrier to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors (projecting growth in hydrogen consumption in the magnitude of hundreds of megatons). Combining scenarios from global energy models and life cycle impacts of different hydrogen production technologies, the results of this work show that the life cycle emissions from proposed configurations of the hydrogen economy would lead to climate overshoot of at least 5.4–8.1x of the defined “safe” space for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and the cumulative consumption of 8–12% of the remaining carbon budget. This work suggests a need for a science-based definition of “clean” hydrogen, agnostic of technology and compatible with a “safe” development of the hydrogen economy. Such a definition would deem blue hydrogen environmentally unviable by 2025–2035. The prolific use of green hydrogen is also problematic however, due to the requirement of a significant amount of renewable energy, and the associated embedded energy, land, and material impacts. These results suggest that demand-side solutions should be further considered, as the large-scale transition to hydrogen, which represents a “clean” energy shift, may still not be sufficient to lead humanity into a “safe” space.
Citation: Climate
PubDate: 2023-01-15
DOI: 10.3390/cli11010025
Issue No: Vol. 11, No. 1 (2023)
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