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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
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  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2467 journals]
  • Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood
           risk from sea level rise

    • Abstract: Abstract Elevated flood risk due to sea level rise is expected to increase migration from coastal areas. This presents an enormous policy challenge given the hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas globally. Despite its relevance, little empirical research has been done on what drives coastal residents to migrate or stay under increased flood risk. This study aims to improve the knowledge base on this topic by collecting and analyzing unique survey data of flood-prone coastal residents in Central Vietnam. To explain permanent migration intentions under increased flood risk, we present respondents with realistic scenarios of more frequent severe flooding and utilize a theoretical framework that incorporates flood risk indicators as well as key indicators of sustainable livelihoods. Results indicate that flood risk could play a major role in future migration behavior; permanent migration intentions strongly increase under the scenarios of increased flood risk. Several individual characteristics also play an important role in the migration decision. Regression analyses reveal that respondents who implemented in situ flood adaptation, and thereby reduced their flood risk, are less inclined to migrate. Past experiences during flooding such as evacuation or the reception of help from community members or the government are also strong predictors of migration intentions. Of the sustainable livelihood indicators, social capital plays the most important role, where a larger social network inside (outside) the place of residence is negatively (positively) related to migration intentions. We draw lessons from these insights for policymakers aiming to anticipate the challenge of sea level rise-induced migration.
      PubDate: 2023-01-25
       
  • Farmers’ social networks and regional spillover effects in agricultural
           climate change mitigation

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change poses a severe threat to global agricultural production and rural livelihoods, and since agriculture itself is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it can also play an important role in climate change mitigation. This article investigates how farmers’ social networks influence the adoption of on-farm mitigation strategies. More precisely, we use a network autocorrelation model to explore the relationship between a farmer’s own mitigation behavior and the mitigation behavior and knowledge of his fellow farmers. The analysis is based on a regional case study in Switzerland and uses data obtained from personal network interviews combined with survey and census data of 50 farmers. Half of them are members of a local collective action initiative for agricultural climate change mitigation, while the others do not participate in the initiative. We find that, on average, farmers with a larger network adopt more mitigation measures, and furthermore, mitigation adoption is linked with the level of knowledge within farmers’ networks. Indeed, the likelihood that non-members will adopt mitigation measures increases if they are closely associated with members of the collective action, suggesting a local spillover effect. It follows that strengthening knowledge exchange among farmers and supporting local farmers’ initiatives can potentially contribute to the diffusion of agricultural climate change mitigation practices.
      PubDate: 2023-01-21
       
  • Recovering, correcting, and reconstructing precipitation data affected by
           gaps and irregular readings: The Padua series from 1812 to 1864

    • Abstract: Abstract The aim of this work is to reconstruct the 1812–1864 period of the Padua precipitation series at the daily level, using a local precipitation Log. Missing readings, cumulative amounts, and gaps often affect early precipitation series, as observers did not follow a precise protocol. Therefore, the daily amount and frequency reported in the register of observations are not homogeneous with other periods, neither comparable with other contemporary series, and need a correction. The correction methodology has been based on the daily weather notes written in the Log in parallel to the readings. Taking advantage of periods in which both weather observations and instrumental readings were regularly taken, the terms used to describe the precipitation type and intensity have been classified, analyzed statistically, calibrated, and transformed into numerical values. The weather notes enable the distribution of precipitation to be determined based on the cumulative amounts collected on consecutive rainy days into the likely precipitation that occurred on every single rainy day. In the case of missing readings, the presence of weather notes enables the missing amounts to be estimated using the relationships found previously. Finally, the recovery of additional contemporary documents made it possible to fill some gaps in this period. Using this approach, 52 years of the long Padua precipitation series have been corrected: precipitation collected for two or more rainy days has been distributed according to the actual rainy days; the rain amount fully recovered and most of the missing values reconstructed; the false extreme events corrected.
      PubDate: 2023-01-21
       
  • Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition:
           development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment
           in four carbon-intensive industries

    • Abstract: Abstract   Europe’s transition to an energy system compatible with limiting global heating to 1.5 °C will require radical changes in energy systems. While this will create substantial new growth industries in clean technologies, some currently important economic activities will decline. The impacts of that transition will not be the same for all regions. We map the economic vulnerability of European regions to ambitious decarbonisation scenarios in terms of employment losses in four carbon-intensive industries. To do so, we develop a composite vulnerability indicator that combines each region’s share of employment in those high-carbon industries with other dimensions of vulnerability and resilience. We then explore how regional patterns of vulnerability are influenced by the technology pathway to 2050, using four scenarios modelled using the European PRIMES model. We show that economic vulnerability to the low-carbon transition is regionally concentrated, with some regions combining high employment shares in industries expected to decline with weak adaptive capacity and high pre-existing unemployment. We also show that there is little variation in regional vulnerability arising from different transition pathways. All scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C involve large declines in all high-carbon sectors we analyse, and as a result, scenario variation does not lead to large variation in relative vulnerability of regions. The results highlight regions that may be in need of additional policy support to diversify their economies and achieve a just transition.
      PubDate: 2023-01-20
       
  • Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review
           for informing Pacific planning agencies

    • Abstract: Abstract Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to climate variability and change. Developing strategies for adaptation and planning processes in the Pacific requires new knowledge and updated information on climate science. In this paper, we review key climatic processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, how they may change in the future and what the impact of these changes might be. In particular, our emphasis is on the two major atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the Hadley and Walker circulations. We also examine climatic features such as the South Pacific Convergence Zone and Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as factors that modulate natural climate variability on different timescales. It is anticipated that our review of the main climate processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, as well as how these processes and drivers are likely to change in the future under anthropogenic global warming, can help relevant national agencies (such as Meteorological Services and National Disaster Management Offices) clearly communicate new information to sector-specific stakeholders and the wider community through awareness raising.
      PubDate: 2023-01-19
       
  • Climatic controls on the survival and loss of ancient types of barley on
           North Atlantic Islands

    • Abstract: Abstract For ancient types of barley at sites in the Scottish Isles, Faroes, and Iceland, we calculated minimum temperature requirements for grain production (grain production threshold, GPT) as accumulated degree days over the cropping season. Site suitability for barley from AD 1200 to 2000 was investigated by comparing these thresholds with reconstructions of annual cropping season degree days (CSDD) using temperature and tree-ring data. In Iceland, between AD 1200 and 1500, reconstructed CSDD were more favorable in the southwest (Reykjavik), with fewer years below the GPT, than in the North, East and West, but there were two periods (1340–1389 and 1426–1475) with low average CSDD and several years below the GPT which possibly influenced the abandonment of barley cultivation around this time. Reconstructed CSDD for the Faroes (Tórshavn) had only one year below the GPT, but 15 periods of four or more consecutive years with low CSDD which would have challenged barley cultivation, especially in the thirteenth century. Reconstructed CSDD were highest for the Scottish Isles, allowing a more prominent role of barley in the farming system and economy. Nevertheless, years with poor harvests or famines were common and about half were associated with low CSDD, resulting in a significant temperature link but also demonstrating the important contribution of other factors. Despite frequent unfavorable years in both the Faroes and Scottish Isles, resilient production systems, well-adapted barley strains and socio-economic factors allowed barley cultivation to continue, and some ancient types to survive to the present day.
      PubDate: 2023-01-18
       
  • Climate change adaptation behaviour of forest growers in New Zealand: an
           application of protection motivation theory

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is likely to have significant impacts on the forestry sector in New Zealand. However, an understanding of how forest growers are reducing their risks from climate change impacts is still in its infancy. This paper applies the protection motivation theory to identify socio-psychological factors influencing forest growers’ adaptation to climate change. This study presents the survey results from 60 forest growers who have the combined responsibility for managing more than 70% of New Zealand’s plantation forests. We investigated whether their perceived response efficacy, self-efficacy and their understanding of response costs are predictors of their protective or adaptive measures. Based on our survey, risk reduction and risk spreading are the two types of protective measure frequently reported by the respondents to deal with climate risks. Consistent with the protection motivation theory, our findings show that respondents who are more likely to implement protective or adaptive measures if they perceive the threat severity to be high have high self-efficacy and resource efficacy, and exhibit low maladaptive responses such as evading and postponing behaviours. Furthermore, our findings also suggest that there is a low self-efficacy belief with strong maladaptive behaviour among the respondents that negatively influence their motivation to implement adaptation measures. This result provides guidance to policy makers, researchers and forest companies on how to make climate change adaptation efforts effective by considering the forest growers motivation to adapt to climate change.
      PubDate: 2023-01-17
       
  • Successive volcanic eruptions (1809–1815) and two severe famines of
           Korea (1809–1810, 1814–1815) seen through historical records

    • Abstract: Abstract Based on the government’s historical records and personal documents of the pre-modern Chosŏn Dynasty, this paper examines the socio-economic impacts in Korea in response to climatic variability from 1809 until 1819 that may have been influenced to some degree by the eruption of the “unknown volcano” (1809) and the Tambora eruption (1815). In the early 1800s, when volcanic eruptions occurred successively, the Korean Peninsula experienced a temporal precipitation variation—drought, abundant rainfall, and normalcy—twice. The precipitation variation in this period had a heavy impact on the yields of rice, major crop on the peninsula. In the phase of drought in 1809 and extreme climatic anomalies in 1814, the country suffered record poor harvests, and in the abundant rainfall phase in 1810 and 1816–1817, it had bumper crops. For this reason, 1816–1817 were the halcyon years for Korea, unlike the case of Europe and the northeastern USA which suffered from extreme climatic anomalies in those years. This case of the Korean Peninsula indicates that the climate change and natural disasters of the 1810s were influenced by not only of the single event of the Tambora eruption but of the successive eruptions of volcanoes in the 7 years from 1809 to 1815, which also affected other areas on the globe for 11 years (1809–1819).
      PubDate: 2023-01-14
       
  • Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a fundamental risk to the stability of the financial system. The linkage between residential mortgage lending and local heatwave projections has hitherto received little attention in the climate finance discourse despite recognition of the detrimental effects of extreme heat on economic output measures. Through economic, demographic and other channels, future climate conditions can affect the housing market and, thus, the residential mortgage market. Moreover, the potential for contagion is high considering US residential mortgages’ key role in financial cycles and cross-border effects. First, our paper furthers conceptual and empirical understandings of the nexus between future extreme heat and lenders’ credit risk. Second, for the contiguous US states, we show that interest rates are higher and loan terms are shorter in areas forecast to experience a larger increase in the number of hot days over the coming decades after controlling for a range of factors. Rate spreads are higher still in areas where the number of hot days is projected to be extreme. It is lending from non-banks, rather than banks, that appears sensitive to the changing climate.
      PubDate: 2022-12-21
       
  • When population-advantageous primary sex ratios are female-biased:
           changing concepts to facilitate climate change management in sea turtles

    • Abstract: Abstract Sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination. Because females are produced at high temperatures, increasing global temperature may lead to population feminization. Primary sex ratios (PSR) of sea turtle hatchlings are naturally female-biased, but this translates into a more balanced operational sex ratio because male turtles reproduce more often than females. As a consequence, a balanced PSR and the temperature that produces it (pivotal temperature) are of limited use to guide climate mitigation management because an equal PSR may be demographically suboptimal. Here, I define population-advantageous primary sex ratios (PA-PSR) as the PSR that will tend to be in equilibrium in a population and that will result in balanced operational sex ratios; I then estimate PA-PSR for different reproductive frequencies (years elapsed between reproductive seasons) of adult female and male turtles. I also define population equilibrium temperature (PET) as the temperature that would result in the equilibrium PSR of hatchlings (i.e., PA-PSR). These concepts may help assess the influence of rising temperatures on populations, as they can better indicate if PSRs depart from those at equilibrium. I compared PA-PSR and beach PSR for two populations of sea turtles for which male and female remigration intervals were known and found that a mild or no feminization over the PA-PSR may be occurring. Because PSR varies inter-annually, and hatchlings coming from beaches of different thermal conditions could recruit to the same population, it is critical to estimate beach PSR at the right temporal and spatial scales. Climate mitigation strategies based on these concepts could provide better management guidance for conservation practitioners. Similar approaches could be considered for other female-biased species with temperature-dependent sex determination.
      PubDate: 2022-12-21
       
  • National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy
           priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems
           perspective

    • Abstract: Abstract National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to their evolving role in the science-policy interface. A knowledge systems perspective identifies CCRAs as open, adaptive, reflexive processes that help redefine interpretations of risk and adaptation, rather than just providing a specific policy-relevant product. This perspective identifies scope for progressive refinement of CCRAs to enhance collective science-policy adaptive capacity whilst also engaging wider society. For environmental sustainability, this open process can be used to iteratively redefine robust future pathways and system reference conditions that also better reflect evolving societal perceptions and tolerance on sustainability risk in the face of climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-12-21
       
  • Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through
           expert mental models

    • Abstract: Abstract As the impacts of climate change increase, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change advises that global migration will also increase. A deeper understanding of the factors and interactions that influence the migration decision-making of climate-affected populations is needed to more accurately predict migration estimates and adequately inform and prepare future receiving cities. In this study, we survey thirty-two experts in the field of climate migration to explore how demographic, economic, environmental, political, and social factors interact to lead to climate (im)mobility and how these interactions change within sea level rise, drought, flooding, and erosion contexts. We use system mapping and network analysis to determine which factors should be targeted as leverage points for policy makers and their resulting effects within each hazard context. Our findings identify physical infrastructure, social services, social capital, and political stability as places to intervene to increase resiliency in drought, flooding, and erosion climate migration systems. Using hazard context and community consultation, we recommend selecting target factors with direct relationships to other highly influential factors (livelihoods, food security, and financial capital) to elicit the most positive cascading effects through the whole system, leading to changes in migration. We also highlight the sea level rise climate migration system as highly complex in comparison to the other contexts examined and the need for multi-factored interventions in this context to create more resilient migration systems. Our findings contribute to the growing body of work which seeks to better understand the interactions between factors influencing climate migration.
      PubDate: 2022-12-14
       
  • Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy
           production

    • Abstract: Abstract This study aims to identify the effects of temperature on dairy production and the heat tolerance of different dairy breeds under heat stress. Using farm and animal-level data from 1435 dairy farms throughout Sweden for 4 years (from 2016 to 2019), we find that a 7-day average of daily maximum temperatures above ~ 20 ºC is associated with sharp declines in milk production. We then estimate the farm-level loss in contribution margin for a typical Swedish dairy farm for the year 2018, which consisted of long-lasting heatwaves and extended summer temperatures. We also estimate that, on average, there are no differences in the impact of heatwaves on milk losses for different dairy breeds but that there exists a trade-off between genetic milk production potential and heat tolerance of a dairy cow. The magnitude of this productivity-tolerance trade-off may differ across breeds, suggesting that the high-production potential animals of certain breeds may be less sensitive to heat stress. These findings have important implications in terms of adapting to heat stress, investing in mitigation measures, and development of future breeds that can ameliorate the current trade-off between production capacity of a cow and its heat tolerance.
      PubDate: 2022-11-22
       
  • Tipping points ahead' How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear
           climate change predictions

    • Abstract: Abstract We investigate whether communication strategies that portray climate change as a nonlinear phenomenon provoke increases in laypeople’s climate change risk perceptions. In a high-powered, preregistered online experiment, participants were exposed to linear or nonlinear predictions of future temperature increases that would be expected if global greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced. We hypothesized that the type of climate change portrayal would impact perceptions of qualitative risk characteristics (catastrophic potential, controllability of consequences) which would, in turn, affect laypeople’s holistic risk perceptions. The results of the study indicate that the type of climate change portrayal did not affect perceptions of risk or other social-cognitive variables such as efficacy beliefs. While participants who were exposed to a nonlinear portrayal of climate change perceived abrupt changes in the climate system as more likely, they did not perceive the consequences of climate change as less controllable or more catastrophic. Notably, however, participants who had been exposed to a linear or nonlinear portrayal of climate change were willing to donate more money to environmental organizations than participants who had not been presented with a climate-related message. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are discussed.
      PubDate: 2022-11-21
       
  • Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece:
           projections based on historical data

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to pose major challenges for olive cultivation in many Mediterranean countries. Predicting the development phases of olive trees is important for agronomic management purposes to foresee future climate impact and proactively act toward adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, a statistical model was developed based on winter chill accumulation and, in sequence, on heat accumulation to assess the changes in flowering occurrence for Olea europaea cv. Koroneiki, in the island of Crete, Greece. The model was based on and calibrated with long-term phenological observations and temperature data from four different sites in the island, spanning an elevation gradient between 45 and 624 m a.s.l. This model was used to assess the changes in flowering emergence under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as projected by seven high-resolution Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Models. Changes in chill accumulation were determined using the Dynamic Model. Reduction rates in chill accumulation for the whole chilling season ranged between 12.0 and 28.3% for the near future (2021–2060) and 22.7 and 70.9% for the far future (2061–2100), in comparison to the reference period of 1979–2019. Flowering was estimated to occur between 6 and 10 days earlier in the near future and between 12 and 26 days earlier in the far future, depending on the elevation and the climate change scenario.
      PubDate: 2022-11-19
       
  • Pride and guilt as mediators in the relationship between connection to
           nature and pro-environmental intention

    • Abstract: Abstract As a result of the environmental issues, different variables have been studied in relation to environmental concern and pro-environmental behavior. Among these are the connection to nature and emotions. In a first study (n = 95), pride and guilt were found to be emotions which can be explained by the perceived environmental impact of those rather than the behavior itself. In a second study, it was observed that pride and guilt play a mediating role in the relationship between connectedness to nature and pro-environmental behavioral intention (n = 244). On the other hand, in the relationship between love for nature and behavioral intention, pride, but not guilt, played a mediating role (n = 253). Thus, the importance of fostering both pride and guilt in attaining higher levels of environmentally conscious behavior, as well as of considering people’s perceptions of the impact of their behaviors on the environment, is highlighted.
      PubDate: 2022-11-15
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03458-0
       
  • Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and
           climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Assessments of the climate impacts of energy technologies and other emissions sources can depend strongly on the equivalency metric used to compare short- and long-lived greenhouse gas emissions. However, the consequences of metric design choices are not fully understood, and in practice, a single metric, the global warming potential (GWP), is used almost universally. Many metrics have been proposed and evaluated in recent decades, but questions still remain about which ones perform better and why. Here, we develop new insights on how the design of equivalency metrics can impact the outcomes of climate policies. We distill the equivalency metric problem into a few key design choices that determine the metric values and shapes seen across a wide range of different proposed metrics. We examine outcomes under a hypothetical 1.5 or 2 ∘C policy target and discuss extensions to other policies. Across policy contexts, the choice of time parameters is particularly important. Metrics that emphasize the immediate impacts of short-lived gases such as methane can reduce rates of climate change but may require more rapid technology changes. Differences in outcomes across metrics are more pronounced when fossil fuels, with or without carbon capture and storage, play a larger role in energy transitions. By identifying a small set of consequential design decisions, these insights can help make metric choices and energy transitions more deliberate and effective at mitigating climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-11-11
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03442-8
       
  • Correction to: Near-term climate risks and solar radiation modification: a
           roadmap approach for physical sciences research

    • PubDate: 2022-11-09
       
  • Evidence for three distinct climate change audience segments with varying
           

    • Abstract: Abstract Mounting evidence suggests members of the general public are not homogeneous in their receptivity to climate science information. Studies segmenting climate change views typically deploy a top-down approach, whereby concepts salient in scientific literature determine the number and nature of segments. In contrast, in two studies using Australian citizens, we used a bottom-up approach, in which segments were determined from perceptions of climate change concepts derived from citizen social media discourse. In Study 1, we identified three segments of the Australian public (Acceptors, Fencesitters, and Sceptics) and their psychological characteristics. We find segments differ in climate change concern and scepticism, mental models of climate, political ideology, and worldviews. In Study 2, we examined whether reception to scientific information differed across segments using a belief-updating task. Participants reported their beliefs concerning the causes of climate change, the likelihood climate change will have specific impacts, and the effectiveness of Australia’s mitigation policy. Next, participants were provided with the actual scientific estimates for each event and asked to provide new estimates. We find significant heterogeneity in the belief-updating tendencies of the three segments that can be understood with reference to their different psychological characteristics. Our results suggest tailored scientific communications informed by the psychological profiles of different segments may be more effective than a “one-size-fits-all” approach. Using our novel audience segmentation analysis, we provide some practical suggestions regarding how communication strategies can be improved by accounting for segments’ characteristics.
      PubDate: 2022-10-31
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03437-5
       
  • Tailoring climate information and services for adaptation actors with
           diverse capabilities

    • Abstract: Abstract With louder demands in public discourse for action on adaptation to climate change, efforts to improve the provision and use of climate information and services (CIS) are also gaining prominence. Drawing on literature about uptake of CIS for climate risk assessment and adaptation, plus our own practical experiences, this Essay examines modes of user-provider interaction in CIS. By employing a customer-tailor analogy, three overlapping types of CIS transaction are identified: ‘off-the-peg’, ‘outsourced’ and ‘bespoke’. Evident across all modes are ‘loyalty card’ customers who return to the same provider(s). We then offer a set of prompts to facilitate more meaningful engagement and dialogue between adaptation actors and providers. These questions could also be used to seed discussions within communities that research and provide training in CIS, as well as amongst stakeholders, funders and other institutions involved in the governance of CIS systems. Such searching and timely conversations could advance a more tailored approach to CIS delivery, regardless of the technical and financial starting point of users and providers.
      PubDate: 2022-10-31
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03452-6
       
 
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