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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 72  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2468 journals]
  • Cold waves still matter: characteristics and associated climatic signals
           in Europe

    • Abstract: Few studies explore extreme wintertime European cold waves (CW) despite their huge economic, and social impacts and a recent decade punctuated by CW (February 2012, January 2017 or March 2018), while Europe bets on mild winter to avoid an energy crisis in 2023. Here, we investigate potential early CW warning signals and model biases over the winters (November-to-March) of the 1950–2005 period, calculating the atmospheric and surface conditions of key climate variables (e.g. snow, incoming radiation, cloudiness, pressure, winds and sea surface temperatures variables) both in reanalyses and climate models, before and during CW events. We show that global coupled climate models systematically overestimate the number of CW in the present-day period. Until 30 days before CW, some robust and significant early patterns emerge, both in models and reanalyses: weak atmospheric blocking, anomalously negative North Sea surface temperatures (SST) and a deficit of incoming longwave radiation. Downward shortwave radiation is anomalously positive during and before CW which weakens arguments for direct negative solar forcing on winter extreme cold events in Europe. Climate models share in their great majority (> 80%) these patterns (for dynamical and radiative-related variables, spatial correlation r > 0.7) and can correctly simulate the sign of climate variables anomalies during and at least 7 days before CW. We find that excess of European snow cover and snow depth are unlikely to cause occurrences of CW, but the advection of cold air masses (North-East) emerges as a potential precursor signal of a majority of CW. In a context of climate change, fossil fuels scarcity and increased uncertainty due to geopolitical events, it is crucial to study the sensitivity of the energy, health and agriculture sectors to compound extreme weather, including cold waves.
      PubDate: 2023-05-22
  • Endorsement of scientific inquiry promotes better evaluation of climate
           policy evidence

    • Abstract: Public and scientific consensus about climate change do not align. Problematically, higher scientific knowledge has been associated with lower acceptance of climate information among those with more conservative socio-political ideologies. Positive attitudes towards science can attenuate this effect. We investigated the association between endorsement of scientific inquiry (ESI) and decision-making with scientific evidence about climate policies. Participants rated support for 16 climate policies accompanied by weaker or stronger evidence. In study 1 (N = 503), higher ESI was associated with greater discernment between strongly and weakly evidenced climate policies, irrespective of worldview. In studies 2 (N = 402) and 3 (N = 600), an ESI intervention improved discrimination, and, in study 3, increased ESI specifically for hierarchical/individualistic participants. Unlike ESI, the link between scientific knowledge and evaluation of evidence was influenced by worldview. Increasing ESI might improve the evaluation of scientific evidence and increase public support for evidence-based climate policies.
      PubDate: 2023-05-19
  • Extreme climatic events alter the aquatic insect community in a pristine
           German stream

    • Abstract: As a result of ongoing climate change, extreme climatic events (ECEs) are expected to become more frequent and severe. The high biodiversity of riverine ecosystems is susceptible to ECEs, especially to water temperature (extreme heat and extreme cold) and discharge-related (flood and drought) events. Long time series are needed to unravel the effects of ECEs on ecological communities. Here, we used 20 years (1986–2005) of unusually high-resolution data from a pristine first-order stream in Germany. Daily recordings of species-level identified aquatic insect (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera: EPT) emergence, water temperature and discharge data were used to examine the effects of four types of ECEs (extreme heat, extreme cold, flood, and drought events) on insect abundance, common taxonomic diversity metrics, and selected traits after five different time lags (2 weeks, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months). Extreme heat events increased from 1.8 ± 1.9 SE events per year before 2000 to 5.3 ± 1.9 SE events per year after 2000. Water temperature-related ECEs restructured the EPT community in abundance, species richness, and traits (community temperature index: CTI, and dispersal capacity metric: DCM). The strongest effects on the EPT community were found when it was exposed to multiple ECEs and 1 and 3 months after an ECE. The changing frequencies and durations of ECEs, especially the increasing frequency of extreme heat events and the negative cumulative effects of ECEs, paint a worrisome picture for the future of EPT communities in headwater streams. High-resolution, long-term data across sites is needed to further disentangle the effects of different ECE stressors.
      PubDate: 2023-05-18
  • Impact of mean sea-level rise on the long-term evolution of a

    • Abstract: Mean sea-level rise (MSLR) will induce shoreline recession, increasing the stress on coastal systems of high socio-economic and environmental values. Localized mega-nourishments are meant to alleviate erosion problems by diffusing alongshore over decades and thus feeding adjacent beaches. The 21-st century morphological evolution of the Delfland coast, where the Sand Engine mega-nourishment was built in 2011, was simulated with the Q2Dmorfo model to assess the Sand Engine capacity to protect the area against the effects of MSLR. The calibrated and validated model was forced with historical wave and sea-level data and MSLR projections until 2100 corresponding to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results show that the Sand Engine diffusive trend will continue in forthcoming decades, with the feeding effect to adjacent beaches being less noticeable from 2050 onward. Superimposed to this alongshore diffusion, MSLR causes the shoreline to recede because of both passive-flooding and a net offshore sediment transport produced by wave reshaping and gravity. The existing feeding asymmetry enforces more sediment transport to the NE than to the SW, causing the former to remain stable whilst the SW shoreline retreats significantly, especially from 2050 onward. Sediment from the Sand Engine does not reach the beaches located more than 6 km to the SW, with a strong shoreline and profile recession in that area, as well as dune erosion. The uncertainties in the results are dominated by those related to the free model parameters up to 2050 whilst uncertainties in MSLR projections prevail from 2050 to 2100.
      PubDate: 2023-05-15
  • Potential carbon leakage risk: a cross-sector cross-country assessment in
           the OECD area

    • Abstract: Achieving climate targets requires more stringent mitigation policies, including the participation of all economic sectors. However, in a fragmented global climate regime, unilateral mitigation policies affecting sectors’ production costs increase carbon leakage risk. Carbon leakage implies reducing the competitiveness of domestic sectors without achieving the full mitigation objectives. Under such circumstances, generating information about sectors’ vulnerability is essential to increase their acceptance of more stringent climate policies and design anti-leakage mechanisms. Our paper calculates and compares potential carbon leakage risk across sectors and OECD countries under varying climate policy scenarios covering GHG emissions along global supply chains. To measure this risk, we use the emission-intensity and trade-exposure metric and emission data including CO2 and non-CO2 gasses. Our results show that agri-food and transport sectors, usually lagging behind in countries’ national climate mitigation policies, could have an even higher carbon leakage risk than energy-intensive industries. Furthermore, we find that this risk can be higher in many downstream sectors compared to directly regulated sectors and is highly heterogenous across OECD countries.
      PubDate: 2023-05-13
  • Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the
           1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

    • Abstract: Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.
      PubDate: 2023-05-11
  • Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city

    • Abstract: In this study, we describe a methodology to derive climate analogue cities for spatially highly resolved future climate scenarios. For the computation, a reduced and in hindsight bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 dataset is used based on two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A total of 389 European cities are processed by the algorithm, which uses five statistical climate variables (2-m air temperature average and amplitude, precipitation sum and amplitude, correlation between 2-m air temperature average and precipitation sum). Additionally, extreme weather events (hot days, summer days, tropical nights, extreme precipitation events) are calculated for further comparison and validation. Finding an appropriate analogue permits a more accurate derivation and depiction of necessary climate adaptation efforts and therefore assist decision-making in city planning. As an example of our method, we searched for plausible climate twins for the mid-sized city of Aachen (Germany) at the end of the twenty-first century. Our results show that the French city of Dijon is highly likely to become Aachen’s climate twin by the end of the century for RCP4.5. As for the scenario RCP8.5, no clear European analogue city could be determined, indicating that the city might enter a novel climate. The nearest match suggests the cities of Florence and Prato in Tuscany. However, considering climate indices, the encompassing region of the French–Spanish city triangle Bordeaux–Toulouse–Bilbao is a better fit. The developed algorithm can be applied to any of the cities included in the dataset.
      PubDate: 2023-05-08
  • When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study'

    • Abstract: The influence of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is becoming increasingly well understood. Extreme event attribution studies now exist for hundreds of events over the past few decades. However, there remain large heterogeneities in the number of attribution studies across the world and for different hazards, as well as limited capacity to conduct new studies. In this study, we suggest that there is more information to draw from past attribution studies about recent events. This is because, even though anthropogenic forcing continues to increase, many new events share meteorological characteristics with previously attributed ones. Here, we explore the possibility of using related studies and other lines of existing evidence such as projections and trend analysis to create rapid, low-resource attribution statements. To do this, we discuss the potential use cases for attribution results, including raising awareness of climate risks, preparing adaptation measures and attributing climate loss and damage. Then we discuss the considerations necessary to fulfil these uses in three cases studies, including a heatwave in the UK, a tropical storm in the Caribbean and a drought in East Africa. To conclude, we highlight the regions and hazards for which information can be drawn without new quantitative analysis, and those in which it remains urgent. This could aid prioritisation of limited resources for research into less well understood regions and hazards.
      PubDate: 2023-05-06
  • Haumanu Hauora: refining public health institution policy to include
           Māori and climate change

    • Abstract: The deepening climate crisis generates specific impacts that will exacerbate the already disproportionately negative health outcomes experienced by Indigenous people. Disparate health outcomes have not spontaneously emerged, but rather have been foreshadowed by existing inequities. This article summarizes a sample of the work from a two-year research project in Aotearoa New Zealand to understand existing policy processes and ascertain the extent to which health institutions give serious consideration to climate change impacts on Māori (Indigenous people) with health vulnerabilities. Speaking to tāngata whenua (Indigenous Māori), District Health Board (DHB) employees, and subject matter experts (SMEs), it was clear that policy processes were ad hoc and problematically silenced consistent Māori input. While research participants expressed their experiences of, and aspirations for, dealing with climate change, their voices were not evident in DHB policy development processes. The deficit within existing policy process reflects a lack of preparedness in the face of climate change. Despite clear resilience and adaptation strategies, structural change is needed to address identified disadvantages. Through a co-designed policy framework (“Haumanu Hauora”), we guide policy formation to mitigate climate change risk to Māori (and others). Central to the revised policy framework is the creation of space for both internal and external Māori voices to ensure consistent Māori input throughout the policy process. We also introduce a commissioning, refining, and monitoring stage (that includes evaluation). Haumanu Hauora considers whānau-centered healthcare knowledge, needs, resources, and aspirations, to contribute to a transformed and responsive health system. Above all, we believe that strengthening health institution responsiveness to Māori health needs is essential.
      PubDate: 2023-05-05
  • Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models
           projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in
           southern Africa— assessment of the historical simulations

    • Abstract: This study assesses the performance of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models in simulating extreme precipitation over four major river basins (Limpopo, Okavango, Orange, and Zambezi) in southern Africa during the period 1983–2005. The ability of the model ensembles to simulate seasonal extreme precipitation indices is assessed using three high-resolution satellite-based datasets. The results show that all ensembles overestimate the annual cycle of mean precipitation over all basins, although the intermodel spread is large, with CORDEX being the closest to the observed values. Generally, all ensembles overestimate the mean and interannual variability of rainy days (RR1), maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), and heavy and very heavy precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm, respectively) over all basins during all three seasons. Simple daily rainfall intensity (SDII) and the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) are generally underestimated. The lowest Taylor skill scores (TSS) and spatial correlation coefficients (SCC) are depicted for CDD over Limpopo compared with the other indices and basins, respectively. Additionally, the ensembles exhibit the highest normalized standard deviations (NSD) for CWD compared to other indices. The intermodel spread and performance of the RCM ensembles are lower and better, respectively, than those of GCM ensembles (except for the interannual variability of CDD). In particular, CORDEX performs better than CORE in simulating extreme precipitation over all basins. Although the ensemble biases are often within the range of observations, the statistically significant wet biases shown by all ensembles underline the need for bias correction when using these ensembles in impact assessments.
      PubDate: 2023-05-05
  • Uncertainties in the effectiveness of biological control of stem borers
           under different climate change scenarios in Eastern Africa

    • Abstract: Climate change (CC) is expected to significantly affect biodiversity and ecosystem services. Adverse impacts from CC in the Global South are likely to be exacerbated by limited capacities to take adequate adaptation measures and existing developmental challenges. Insect pests today are already causing considerable yield losses in agricultural crop production in East Africa. Studies have shown that insects are strongly responding to CC by proliferation, shift in distribution, and by altering their phenology, which is why an impact on agriculture can be expected. Biological control (BC) has been proposed as an alternative measure to sustainably contain insect pests, but few studies predict its efficacy under future CC. Using the species maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) approach, we predict the current and future distribution of three important lepidopteran stem borer pests of maize in Eastern Africa, i.e., Busseola fusca (Fuller, 1901), Chilo partellus (Swinhoe, 1885), and Sesamia calamistis (Hampson, 1910), and two parasitoids that are currently used for BC, i.e., Cotesia flavipes (Cameron, 1891) and Cotesia sesamiae (Cameron, 1906). Based on these potential distributions and data collected during household surveys with local farmers in Kenya and Tanzania, also future maize yield losses are predicted for a business-as-usual scenario and a sustainable development scenario. We found that BC of the stem borer pests by C. flavipes and C. sesamiae will be less effective under more severe CC resulting in a reduced ability to curb maize yield losses caused by the stem borers. These results highlight the need to adapt BC measures to future CC to maintain its potential for environmentally friendly pest management strategies. The findings of this research are thus of particular relevance to policymakers, extension officers, and farmers in the region and will aid the adaptation of smallholder agricultural practices to the impacts of CC.
      PubDate: 2023-05-05
  • Carbon sequestration potential and the multiple functions of Nordic

    • Abstract: Grasslands are important carbon sinks, but the underlying processes for their soil carbon sequestration potential are still not well understood, despite much attention given to this topic. In Europe, grasslands, especially semi-natural grasslands, are also important for promoting biodiversity. Moreover, recent global reports have highlighted the importance of biodiversity in supporting climate actions. In boreal and alpine regions in the Nordic countries, grasslands also play an important role in milk and meat production and food security. Certain grassland features and management practices may enhance their soil carbon sequestration potential. Semi-natural grasslands maintained by optimized livestock grazing are vital for aboveground biodiversity and show promise for belowground biodiversity and carbon sequestration potential. It is essential to assess the multiple functions of grasslands, particularly semi-natural grasslands, to facilitate the optimization of policy measures across policy areas. Climate and biodiversity policies should not counteract each other, as some do today. This essay addresses the multiple functions of grasslands and calls for more knowledge about carbon sequestration in Nordic grasslands. This will enable the management of these ecosystems to align with climate mitigation, maintain biodiversity, and satisfy the global need for increased food supply.
      PubDate: 2023-05-04
  • The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of
           observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

    • Abstract: This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drive the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Sweden.
      PubDate: 2023-05-02
  • Does democracy protect the environment' The role of the Arctic Council

    • Abstract: This paper examines the influence of democratic institutions on environmental policy stringency and the degree to which it is affected by membership in the Arctic Council. We hypothesize that, relative to countries with no Arctic presence, countries present in the Arctic given their territorial, trade, and touristic interests are more pro-environmentally inclined as they experience the effects of global warming first-hand, and the quality of democratic institutions may reinforce this effect. Our empirical analysis based on global macroeconomic data suggests that countries with democratic institutional environments are associated with more response to Arctic status and more stringent environmental policies. Moreover, the presence of democratic governments in the Arctic increases the stringency of both market- and non-market-based environmental regulations. The suggestive estimated monetary value associated with the impact of democratic institutions in the Arctic is about 101,000 international dollars per capita. These findings underscore that the development of democratic institutions may lead to strong welfare improvements and can be used in the design of international environmental agreements for Arctic area protection.
      PubDate: 2023-04-19
  • Interactions between migrant race and social status in predicting
           acceptance of climate migrants in Norway

    • Abstract: An emerging stream of research documents that climate migrants are more acceptable than economic migrants to citizens in high-income countries. However, extant research has not considered migrant race, and how race, along with socioeconomic status, interact with reasons for migrating to impact the perceptions of acceptability among residents in the receiving society. We investigated the joint effects of reason for migration (economic vs. climate), race (Black vs. White), and socioeconomic status (low vs. high) on migrant acceptability judgments among a national sample of Norwegian residents (N = 1637) using a preregistered survey experiment. The results indicate that climate migrants are more acceptable to participants than economic migrants, and White migrants are preferred to Black migrants. There was also an interaction between reason for migrating, race, and social status whereby Black, low social status, and economic migrants were less accepted than any other migrant profile. Especially notable was the finding that Black climate migrants of low socioeconomic status were seen by participants as being much more acceptable than Black economic migrants of low socioeconomic status. The notion that climate and economic migrants can be meaningfully differentiated in the real world is debatable. Nonetheless, our study suggests that framing migrants’ motivation in terms of environmental influences, compared with economic motivations, has potentially major effects on migrant acceptance in receiving societies.
      PubDate: 2023-04-15
  • In our (frozen) backyard: the Eurasian Union and regional environmental
           governance in the Arctic

    • Abstract: Regional environmental governance has emerged as a viable alternative to supranational environmental solutions, using regional and local knowledge and actors to tailor more effective policies. This does not deny a role for supranational institutions, however, which can enable their members to effectively shift towards such a decentralized and polycentric approach. In specific regions such as the Arctic, with many national and local actors interested in environmental improvement, such impetus from meta-organizations (i.e., organizations comprised of organizations) could result in beneficial environmental outcomes. This paper examines an underutilized institution, the Eurasian Union (EaEU), and the role it currently plays in facilitating regional environmental governance. Focusing on its largest member, Russia—and the only member with an Arctic linkage—I explore the tension between supranational facilitation and interference in an area not directly affecting all members. Despite explicit Russian interest in this realm, the EaEU may be able to influence Russian environmental policy for the better via multilateral means and internal mechanisms. By challenging the Russian monopoly on Arctic policy in the EaEU, these additional voices may create space for environmental innovation in areas not central to Russia’s interests.
      PubDate: 2023-04-14
  • Understanding perceived climate risks to household water supply and their
           implications for adaptation: evidence from California

    • Abstract:    Rapid adaptation is necessary to maintain, let alone expand, access to reliable, safe drinking water in the face of climate change. Existing research focuses largely on the role, priorities, and incentives of local managers to pursue adaptation strategies while mostly neglecting the role of the broader public, despite the strong public support required to fund and implement many climate adaptation plans. In this paper, we interrogate the relationship between personal experiences of household water supply impacts from extreme weather events and hazard exposure with individual concern about future supply reliability among a statewide representative sample of California households. We find that more than one-third of Californians report experiencing impacts of climate change on their household water supplies and show that these reported impacts differently influence residents’ concern about future water supply reliability, depending on the type of event experienced. In contrast, residents’ concern about future water supplies is not significantly associated with hazard exposure. These findings emphasize the importance of local managers’ attending to not only how climate change is projected to affect their water resources, but how, and whether, residents perceive these risks. The critical role of personal experience in increasing concern highlights that post-extreme events with water supply impacts may offer a critical window to advance solutions. Managers should not assume, however, that all extreme events will promote concern in the same way or to the same degree.
      PubDate: 2023-04-05
  • Topic modelling the mobility response to heat and drought

    • Abstract: We conducted a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed full text articles on the nexus between human mobility and drought or heat published between 2001 and 2021, inclusive. We identified 387 relevant articles, all of which were analysed descriptively using a dictionary-based approach and by using an unsupervised machine learning–based Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. Most articles were in response to droughts (71%), but heat and extreme temperature became more prominent after 2015. The drought-related literature focuses geographically on African and Southern Asian countries, while heat-related research has mainly been conducted in developed countries (mostly in the USA and Australia). For both hazards, European countries are under-represented. The LDA model identified 46 topics which were clustered into five major themes. One cluster (14% of all articles) included literature on heat-related mobility, mostly data-driven models, including amenity migration. The other four clusters included literature on drought, primarily on farming societies and the agricultural sector with three of those clusters making up 63% of all articles, with the common overarching focus on climate migration and food security. One of the four drought clusters focused on social dysfunction in relation to droughts. A sentiment analysis showed articles focusing on voluntary mobility as part of adaptation to drought and heat were more positive than articles focusing on migration triggered by droughts and heat. Based on the topics and the article characterisation, we identified various research gaps, including migration in relation to urban droughts, heat in farming societies and in urban societies of developing countries, planned retreat from hot to cooler places, and the inability or barriers to doing so. More research is also needed to understand the compound effect of drought and heat, and the social and psychological processes that lead to a mobility decision.
      PubDate: 2023-04-05
  • From local knowledge to decision making in climate change adaptation at
           basin scale. Application to the Jucar River Basin, Spain

    • Abstract: Climate change is challenging the conventional approaches for water systems planning. Two main approaches are commonly implemented in the design of climate change adaptation plans: impact-oriented top-down approaches and vulnerability-oriented bottom-up approaches. In order to overcome the shortcomings of both approaches and take advantage of their strengths, we propose an integrative methodology to define adaptation strategies at basin scale, identifying and combining potential changes in water demand and water supply infrastructure along with climate variability and change. The impact of climate change on future local water availability is assessed applying a top-down approach. Local knowledge is used through a participatory bottom-up approach to foresee future scenarios of evolution of the agricultural sector and agricultural water demand, and to identify locally relevant adaptation strategies. A hydroeconomic model integrates the information from both approaches to identify a socially acceptable and cost-effective program of measures for each climate scenario. This method was applied to the Jucar basin, a highly regulated basin with a tight equilibrium between water resources and demands. The results show an important variability of climate change impacts across the basin, with main inflow reductions in the headwaters. The stakeholders prioritized the adaptation options of change to drip irrigation, use of non-conventional resources, and changes in water governance. The results obtained from the hydroeconomic model show that the portfolio of selected adaptation measures could significantly reduce the system’s average annual deficit and cost.
      PubDate: 2023-04-03
  • From continuity to change: Soviet and Russian government attitudes on
           climate change (1989–2009)

    • Abstract: This article studies successive Soviet and Russian government positions on climate change between the late 1980s and the Putin era. It thereby bridges a gap between expanding research on both the role of the Soviet Union in climate change science and diplomacy and on Russian climate change policy after the turn of the millennium. While far-reaching late Soviet plans for decisive participation in the groundbreaking Rio Earth Summit contrasted with the lack of priority accorded to it by Russia during a period of political and economic turmoil, this article argues that there was, before and after 1991, a remarkable continuity of real concern in government about anthropogenic climate change and its negative consequences, not least for the Soviet Union and Russia. This continuity of concern took form in 1989 and lasted for a decade. In contrast to the misleading picture presented to outside observers, notably by the highly visible Yuri Izrael’ and some of the Russian delegations at international climate conferences in the 1990s, a neglect of anthropogenic climate change and its dangers for Russia took hold in the Russian government only after Vladimir Putin came to power. A renewed official recognition of the dangers of anthropogenic climate change materialized only with the 2009 Climate Doctrine. However, until recently this recognition remained half-hearted in comparison with the clear government positions of the late 1980s and the 1990s.
      PubDate: 2023-03-30
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