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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 71  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2467 journals]
  • Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy

    • Abstract: Abstract This study aims to identify the effects of temperature on dairy production and the heat tolerance of different dairy breeds under heat stress. Using farm and animal-level data from 1435 dairy farms throughout Sweden for 4 years (from 2016 to 2019), we find that a 7-day average of daily maximum temperatures above ~ 20 ºC is associated with sharp declines in milk production. We then estimate the farm-level loss in contribution margin for a typical Swedish dairy farm for the year 2018, which consisted of long-lasting heatwaves and extended summer temperatures. We also estimate that, on average, there are no differences in the impact of heatwaves on milk losses for different dairy breeds but that there exists a trade-off between genetic milk production potential and heat tolerance of a dairy cow. The magnitude of this productivity-tolerance trade-off may differ across breeds, suggesting that the high-production potential animals of certain breeds may be less sensitive to heat stress. These findings have important implications in terms of adapting to heat stress, investing in mitigation measures, and development of future breeds that can ameliorate the current trade-off between production capacity of a cow and its heat tolerance.
      PubDate: 2022-11-22
  • Tipping points ahead' How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear
           climate change predictions

    • Abstract: Abstract We investigate whether communication strategies that portray climate change as a nonlinear phenomenon provoke increases in laypeople’s climate change risk perceptions. In a high-powered, preregistered online experiment, participants were exposed to linear or nonlinear predictions of future temperature increases that would be expected if global greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced. We hypothesized that the type of climate change portrayal would impact perceptions of qualitative risk characteristics (catastrophic potential, controllability of consequences) which would, in turn, affect laypeople’s holistic risk perceptions. The results of the study indicate that the type of climate change portrayal did not affect perceptions of risk or other social-cognitive variables such as efficacy beliefs. While participants who were exposed to a nonlinear portrayal of climate change perceived abrupt changes in the climate system as more likely, they did not perceive the consequences of climate change as less controllable or more catastrophic. Notably, however, participants who had been exposed to a linear or nonlinear portrayal of climate change were willing to donate more money to environmental organizations than participants who had not been presented with a climate-related message. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are discussed.
      PubDate: 2022-11-21
  • Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece:
           projections based on historical data

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to pose major challenges for olive cultivation in many Mediterranean countries. Predicting the development phases of olive trees is important for agronomic management purposes to foresee future climate impact and proactively act toward adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, a statistical model was developed based on winter chill accumulation and, in sequence, on heat accumulation to assess the changes in flowering occurrence for Olea europaea cv. Koroneiki, in the island of Crete, Greece. The model was based on and calibrated with long-term phenological observations and temperature data from four different sites in the island, spanning an elevation gradient between 45 and 624 m a.s.l. This model was used to assess the changes in flowering emergence under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as projected by seven high-resolution Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Models. Changes in chill accumulation were determined using the Dynamic Model. Reduction rates in chill accumulation for the whole chilling season ranged between 12.0 and 28.3% for the near future (2021–2060) and 22.7 and 70.9% for the far future (2061–2100), in comparison to the reference period of 1979–2019. Flowering was estimated to occur between 6 and 10 days earlier in the near future and between 12 and 26 days earlier in the far future, depending on the elevation and the climate change scenario.
      PubDate: 2022-11-19
  • Pride and guilt as mediators in the relationship between connection to
           nature and pro-environmental intention

    • Abstract: Abstract As a result of the environmental issues, different variables have been studied in relation to environmental concern and pro-environmental behavior. Among these are the connection to nature and emotions. In a first study (n = 95), pride and guilt were found to be emotions which can be explained by the perceived environmental impact of those rather than the behavior itself. In a second study, it was observed that pride and guilt play a mediating role in the relationship between connectedness to nature and pro-environmental behavioral intention (n = 244). On the other hand, in the relationship between love for nature and behavioral intention, pride, but not guilt, played a mediating role (n = 253). Thus, the importance of fostering both pride and guilt in attaining higher levels of environmentally conscious behavior, as well as of considering people’s perceptions of the impact of their behaviors on the environment, is highlighted.
      PubDate: 2022-11-15
  • Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and
           climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Assessments of the climate impacts of energy technologies and other emissions sources can depend strongly on the equivalency metric used to compare short- and long-lived greenhouse gas emissions. However, the consequences of metric design choices are not fully understood, and in practice, a single metric, the global warming potential (GWP), is used almost universally. Many metrics have been proposed and evaluated in recent decades, but questions still remain about which ones perform better and why. Here, we develop new insights on how the design of equivalency metrics can impact the outcomes of climate policies. We distill the equivalency metric problem into a few key design choices that determine the metric values and shapes seen across a wide range of different proposed metrics. We examine outcomes under a hypothetical 1.5 or 2 ∘C policy target and discuss extensions to other policies. Across policy contexts, the choice of time parameters is particularly important. Metrics that emphasize the immediate impacts of short-lived gases such as methane can reduce rates of climate change but may require more rapid technology changes. Differences in outcomes across metrics are more pronounced when fossil fuels, with or without carbon capture and storage, play a larger role in energy transitions. By identifying a small set of consequential design decisions, these insights can help make metric choices and energy transitions more deliberate and effective at mitigating climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-11-11
  • Correction to: Near-term climate risks and solar radiation modification: a
           roadmap approach for physical sciences research

    • PubDate: 2022-11-09
  • Evidence for three distinct climate change audience segments with varying

    • Abstract: Abstract Mounting evidence suggests members of the general public are not homogeneous in their receptivity to climate science information. Studies segmenting climate change views typically deploy a top-down approach, whereby concepts salient in scientific literature determine the number and nature of segments. In contrast, in two studies using Australian citizens, we used a bottom-up approach, in which segments were determined from perceptions of climate change concepts derived from citizen social media discourse. In Study 1, we identified three segments of the Australian public (Acceptors, Fencesitters, and Sceptics) and their psychological characteristics. We find segments differ in climate change concern and scepticism, mental models of climate, political ideology, and worldviews. In Study 2, we examined whether reception to scientific information differed across segments using a belief-updating task. Participants reported their beliefs concerning the causes of climate change, the likelihood climate change will have specific impacts, and the effectiveness of Australia’s mitigation policy. Next, participants were provided with the actual scientific estimates for each event and asked to provide new estimates. We find significant heterogeneity in the belief-updating tendencies of the three segments that can be understood with reference to their different psychological characteristics. Our results suggest tailored scientific communications informed by the psychological profiles of different segments may be more effective than a “one-size-fits-all” approach. Using our novel audience segmentation analysis, we provide some practical suggestions regarding how communication strategies can be improved by accounting for segments’ characteristics.
      PubDate: 2022-10-31
  • Tailoring climate information and services for adaptation actors with
           diverse capabilities

    • Abstract: Abstract With louder demands in public discourse for action on adaptation to climate change, efforts to improve the provision and use of climate information and services (CIS) are also gaining prominence. Drawing on literature about uptake of CIS for climate risk assessment and adaptation, plus our own practical experiences, this Essay examines modes of user-provider interaction in CIS. By employing a customer-tailor analogy, three overlapping types of CIS transaction are identified: ‘off-the-peg’, ‘outsourced’ and ‘bespoke’. Evident across all modes are ‘loyalty card’ customers who return to the same provider(s). We then offer a set of prompts to facilitate more meaningful engagement and dialogue between adaptation actors and providers. These questions could also be used to seed discussions within communities that research and provide training in CIS, as well as amongst stakeholders, funders and other institutions involved in the governance of CIS systems. Such searching and timely conversations could advance a more tailored approach to CIS delivery, regardless of the technical and financial starting point of users and providers.
      PubDate: 2022-10-31
  • Equitable buyouts' Learning from state, county, and local floodplain
           management programs

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change-exacerbated flooding has renewed interest in property buyouts as a pillar of managed retreat from coastal zones and floodplains in the United States. However, federal buyout programs are widely critiqued for being inaccessible and inequitable. To learn whether and how subnational buyout programs overcome these limitations, we examined five leading US state, county, and local buyout programs to see what they teach us about redesigning future federal policies. Our mixed-methods research used interviews and document analysis to develop case studies, juxtaposed subnational strategies against a review of critiques of federal buyouts, and focus group discussions with subnational buyout managers and experts to identify limitations of their programs. We find that subnational programs can be more inclusive and better respond to resident needs as compared to existing federal programs due to their access to dedicated, non-federal funding and their standing institutional status, which allows them to learn and evolve over time. Nevertheless, these programs lack coordination with and control over agencies that permit development and produce affordable housing. This gives buyout programs limited power in shaping the overall equity of who lives in floodplains and who has access to affordable, resilient housing after a buyout. Their experiences suggest federal programs can support managed retreat nationwide by increasing support for institutional and staff capacity at state and county levels, encouraging efforts to bridge institutional silos at subnational levels, and holistically mainstream climate considerations into regional floodplain development, affordable housing production, and flood risk mitigation.
      PubDate: 2022-10-26
  • Correction to: Farmer adoption and intensity of use of extreme weather
           adaptation and mitigation strategies: evidence from a sample of Missouri

    • PubDate: 2022-10-20
  • Optimal climate policies under fairness preferences

    • Abstract: Abstract Integrated assessment models are tools largely used to investigate the benefit of reducing polluting emissions and limiting the anthropogenic mean temperature rise. However, they have been often criticized for their underlying assumptions, often leading to low levels of abatement. Countries and regions that are generally the actors in these models are usually depicted as having standard concave utility functions in consumption. This, however, disregards a potentially important aspect of environmental negotiations, namely its distributive implications. The present paper tries to fill this gap assuming that countries/regions have Fehr and Schmidt (The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(3):817–868, 1999) (F&S) utility functions, specifically tailored for including inequality aversion. By adopting the RICE model, we compare its standard results with the ones obtained introducing F&S utility functions, showing that, under optimal cooperation, the level of temperature rise is lower in the last scenario. In particular, the peak temperature, reached in 2155 under standard assumptions and one or two decades later under F&S preferences with, respectively, heterogeneous and homogeneous F&S inequality aversion parameters (α and β), is of 2.86 ∘C in the former scenario and of 2.65 ∘C and 2.67 ∘C in the latter two. Furthermore, it is shown that potentially stable coalitions are easier to be achieved when F&S preferences are assumed. However, potentially stable coalitions are far from reaching environmental targets close to limiting the mean temperature rise below 2 ∘C despite the adoption of F&S utility functions. The 2 ∘C target is almost achieved in all scenarios when the payoffs in the F&S utility function are given by the per-capita consumption rather than utility of consumption, with F&S preferences and heterogeneous F&S inequality aversion parameters leading to a peak temperature rise of 2.04 ∘C.
      PubDate: 2022-10-20
  • A canary, a coal mine, and imperfect data: determining the efficacy of
           open-source climate change models in detecting and predicting extreme
           weather events in Northern and Western Kenya

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate models, by accurately forecasting future weather events, can be a critical tool in developing countermeasures to reduce crop loss and decrease adverse effects on animal husbandry and fishing. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of various regional versions of the climate models, RCMs, and the commonly available weather datasets in Kenya in predicting extreme weather patterns in northern and western Kenya. We identified two models that may be used to predict flood risks and potential drought events in these regions. The combination of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weather station data was the most effective in predicting future drought occurrences in Turkana and Wajir with accuracies ranging from 78 to 90%. In the case of flood forecasting, isolation forests models using weather station data had the best overall performance. The above models and datasets may form the basis of an early warning system for use in Kenya’s agricultural sector.
      PubDate: 2022-10-19
  • Near-term climate risks and solar radiation modification: a roadmap
           approach for physical sciences research

    • Abstract: Abstract Current impacts and escalating risks of climate change require strong and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They also highlight the urgency of research to enhance safety for human and natural systems, especially for those most vulnerable. This is reflected in two recent US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine studies that recommended a national focus on advancing our understanding of how to manage urgent current and future climate risks, and the study of approaches for increasing the reflection of sunlight from the atmosphere to reduce global warming, a process referred to as sunlight reflection modification (SRM). Here, we build on these recommendations by proposing a roadmap approach for the planning, coordination, and delivery of research to support a robust scientific assessment of SRM to reduce near-term climate risks in a defined timeframe. This approach is designed to support the evaluation of SRM as a possible rapid, temporary, additive measure to reduce catastrophic impacts from anthropogenic climate change, not as a substitute for aggressive GHG mitigation. Assessing SRM is proposed to be undertaken in the context of climate hazard risks through 2050, weighing the impacts associated with likely climate change trajectories against scenarios of possible SRM implementations. Provided that research is undertaken openly and that scientific resources are made widely available, the transparency of the process and the evidence generated would contribute to the democratization of information, participation by diverse stakeholders, more informed decision-making, and better opportunities for all people to weigh SRM options against climate change risks.
      PubDate: 2022-10-17
  • Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people

    • Abstract: Abstract Both climate scientists and non-scientists (laypeople) attribute extreme weather events to various influences. Laypeople’s attributions for these events are important as these attributions likely influence their views and actions about climate change and extreme events. Research has examined laypeople’s attribution scepticism about climate change in general; however, few climate scientists are familiar with the processes underpinning laypeople’s attributions for individual extreme events. Understanding these lay attributions is important for scientists to communicate their findings to the public. Following a brief summary of the way climate scientists calculate attributions for extreme weather events, we focus on cognitive and motivational processes that underlie laypeople’s attributions for specific events. These include a tendency to prefer single-cause rather than multiple-cause explanations, a discounting of whether possible causes covary with extreme events, a preference for sufficient causes over probabilities, applying prevailing causal narratives, and the influence of motivational factors. For climate scientists and communicators who wish to inform the public about the role of climate change in extreme weather events, these patterns suggest several strategies to explain scientists’ attributions for these events and enhance public engagement with climate change. These strategies include showing more explicitly that extreme weather events reflect multiple causal influences, that climate change is a mechanism that covaries with these events and increases the probability and intensity of many of these events, that human emissions contributing to climate change are controllable, and that misleading communications about weather attributions reflect motivated interests rather than good evidence.
      PubDate: 2022-10-14
  • How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate

    • Abstract: Abstract Philosophers argue that many choices in science are influenced by values or have value-implications, ranging from the preference for some research method’s qualities to ethical estimation of the consequences of error. Based on the argument that awareness of values in the scientific process is a necessary first step to both avoid bias and attune science best to the needs of society, an analysis of the role of values in the physical climate science production process is provided. Model-based assessment of climate sensitivity is taken as an illustrative example; climate sensitivity is useful here because of its key role in climate science and relevance for policy, by having been the subject of several assessments over the past decades including a recent shift in assessment method, and because it enables insights that apply to numerous other aspects of climate science. It is found that value-judgements are relevant at every step of the model-based assessment process, with a differentiated role of non-epistemic values across the steps, impacting the assessment in various ways. Scrutiny of current philosophical norms for value-management highlights the need for those norms to be re-worked for broader applicability to climate science. Recent development in climate science turning away from direct use of models for climate sensitivity assessment also gives the opportunity to start investigating the role of values in alternative assessment methods, highlighting similarities and differences in terms of the role of values that encourage further study.
      PubDate: 2022-10-03
  • Farmer adoption and intensity of use of extreme weather adaptation and
           mitigation strategies: evidence from a sample of Missouri farmers

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change and its associated weather extremes pose a threat to agriculture. To slow down climate change and reduce its associated risks, governments around the world are currently developing policies to encourage farmers to engage in adaptation and mitigation efforts. The aim of this study is to assess the adoption and intensity of use of extreme weather adaptation and mitigation strategies among a sample of Missouri farmers and to identify the factors that influence adaptation and mitigation behavior. Of particular interest is the influence of the 2019 Missouri River flooding on adaptation and mitigation efforts. An econometric hurdle model that separates the decision on whether to adopt adaptation/mitigation strategies from the decision on how many strategies to employ was used to achieve the study’s purpose. Improving field drainage or soil water retention capacity for potential flooding was found to be by far the most used adaptation. The most used mitigations were increasing use of minimum tillage, managing fertilizer, and planting cover crops. Types of crops grown, farm income, and opinions on extreme weather events were the most important determinants of both adaptation and mitigation decision. Direct experience with the 2019 Missouri River floods is found to only influence adaptation decision. Adaptation and mitigation intensity were found to be strongly influenced by opinions on government support for adaptation and CRP involvement, respectively. Directions for policy and outreach that can promote adaptation and mitigation efforts among farmers are discussed.
      PubDate: 2022-09-30
  • Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C
           of global warming in six countries

    • Abstract: Abstract We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the probability and length of severe drought in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India). This includes an examination of different land cover classes, and a calculation of the proportion of population in 2100 (SSP2) at exposed to severe drought lasting longer than one year. Current pledges for climate change mitigation, which are projected to still result in global warming levels of 3 °C or more, would impact all of the countries in this study. For example, with 3 °C warming, more than 50% of the agricultural area in each country is projected to be exposed to severe droughts of longer than one year in a 30-year period. Using standard population projections, it is estimated that 80%-100% of the population in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana (and nearly 50% of the population of India) are projected to be exposed to a severe drought lasting one year or longer in a 30-year period. In contrast, we find that meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, that is limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, is projected to greatly benefit all of the countries in this study, greatly reducing exposure to severe drought for large percentages of the population and in all major land cover classes, with Egypt potentially benefiting the most.
      PubDate: 2022-09-28
  • Prosets: a new financing instrument to deliver a durable net zero

    • Abstract: Abstract Interest in carbon offsetting is resurging among companies and institutions, but the vast majority of existing offerings fail to enable a credible transition to a durable net zero emission state. A clear definition of what makes an offsetting product “net zero compliant” is needed. We introduce the “proset”, a new form of composite carbon credit in which the fraction of carbon allocated to geological-timescale storage options increases progressively, reaching 100% by the target net zero date, generating predictable demand for effectively permanent CO2 storage while making the most of the near-term opportunities provided by nature-based climate solutions, all at an affordable cost to the purchaser.
      PubDate: 2022-09-28
  • Correction to: Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming
           systems in Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model

    • PubDate: 2022-09-23
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03433-9
  • The existential risk space of climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of the risk, i.e., where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined, and analyzed in the scientific literature. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction. This paper intends to address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, drawing on research in fields on global catastrophic risks, and on key risks and the so-called Reasons for Concern in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement as well as what can be learned in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis. To better frame existential risks in the context of climate change, we propose to define them as those risks that threaten the existence of a subject, where this subject can be an individual person, a community, or nation state or humanity. The threat to their existence is defined by two levels of severity: conditions that threaten (1) survival and (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, is commonly not part of the space of existential risks. Our definition covers a range of different scales, which leads us into further defining six analytical dimensions: physical and social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In conclusion, we suggest that a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action.
      PubDate: 2022-09-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03430-y
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