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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 72  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2468 journals]
  • Impact of behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural
           practices on the food and nutrition security of farming households: A
           microeconomic level evidence

    • Abstract: Abstract The study examined the behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices (CSA) and its impact on the food-nutrition security (FNS) of farming households in South Africa. We employed a multistage sampling procedure to select rural maize farmers across the selected villages. To determine the impacts of behavioural adoption of CSA on the FNS of farming households, endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) was employed, while household dietary diversity score (HDDS) and household food insecurity access score (HFIAS) were used to determine the FNS status of the households. The findings emphasized the significance of the behavioural intentions of rural maize farmers, assessed through their attitudinal dimensions (measured in terms of perceived social norms, behavioural intentions, and control) in influencing the adoption decision of CSA practices, hence CSA adoption positively impacts FNS in South Africa. The result indicates that households that adopt CSA observe a 27% and 23% increase in HDDS and a decrease in HFIAS compared to those who do not adopt CSA practices, respectively. Thus, the outcome illustrates that the adoption of CSA practices substantially enhances the HDDS and HFIAS of rural maize farming households in South Africa. Following this backdrop, a concerted effort to raise knowledge of CSA practices through disseminating pertinent information will exert influence on the farmers' adoption behaviour towards CSA practices, which is capable of improving the FNS of rural maize farmers.
      PubDate: 2024-07-11
       
  • Does drought exposure erode trust in the political system in Sub-Saharan
           Africa'

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of severe droughts. As water scarcity can destroy vital resources such as crops and livestock, droughts pose major challenges to affected societies. Concerns arise that the resulting hardship and suffering could exacerbate social tensions. Trust in the political system, defined as citizens’ overall confidence in the state to deliver satisfactory outcomes, is an integral foundation of stable state-society relations. To illuminate under what conditions droughts might exert a destabilizing effect, investigating their impact on trust in the political system is paramount. Our study is the first to investigate how drought exposure influences citizens´ overall confidence in the political system. Previous research shows that citizens tend to lose trust when dissatisfied with the living conditions and output that a system provides. While droughts emerge gradually and, thus, give states multiple opportunities to intervene, states in the Global South often struggle to master the challenging task of drought management, thereby demonstrating inadequate, dissatisfactory state performance. We argue that failures in successful drought management showcase what goes wrong in a political system, which in turn leads to an erosion of trust in the political system. Using individual-level survey data from Afrobarometer round five, matched with high-resolution water scarcity data, our analysis reveals that recently drought-exposed individuals exhibit significantly lower levels of trust in the political system compared to their unaffected counterparts. This effect is most pronounced in sub-national regions with low state capacity, where the implementation of successful drought relief measures might be particularly difficult.
      PubDate: 2024-07-01
       
  • Impacts of climate change and agricultural diversification on agricultural
           production value of Thai farm households

    • Abstract: Abstract This paper examines how rising temperatures impact the agricultural production value of Thai farmers, compares potential adaptation strategies like agricultural diversification, and analyzes future projections based on IPCC AR6 scenarios. We analyze nationally representative socioeconomic survey data from farm households alongside ERA5 weather data, utilizing econometric regression analysis. Our analysis reveals that higher temperatures lead to a reduction in agricultural output value, with the situation expected to worsen as global warming progresses. Furthermore, we find that households with diversified production practices, such as a variety of agricultural activities or multicropping, exhibit a greater capacity to adapt to rising temperatures. These findings substantiate the importance of the country’s policies promoting integrated farming and diversified crop-mix strategies.
      PubDate: 2024-06-28
       
  • A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global
           warming on Korean peak summers

    • Abstract: Abstract In recent years, South Korea has experienced a notable escalation in the intensity and frequency of summer heat. To quantitatively gauge the impact of global warming on Korean summers, this study employs the Time of Emergence (TOE) method, assessing when the effects of global warming surpass natural climate variability. Determining a precise regional TOE is challenging due to disparities between modeled climates and observations. For peak summer seasons (July and August), TOE estimates range from the 2010s to the early 2030s in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5, suggesting an imminent or already reached TOE. However, for the same scenario, different methodologies and datasets project the TOE to the late 21st century, suggesting the existence of uncertainty in the TOE. One reason for this uncertainty is the discrepancies identified between climate models and observations, which suggest that climate models could delay the TOE beyond the present time. Furthermore, from 1959 to 2014, global warming accounts for less than 10% of the observed temperature. Despite this, the strengthening of global warming signals is confirmed, leading to the expectation of more extreme events than those seen in the 2018 heat wave. This raises questions about current estimates of TOE and emphasizes the need for robust climate modeling to inform effective climate action.
      PubDate: 2024-06-27
       
  • Depth-dependent warming of the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba)

    • Abstract: Abstract The Gulf of Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba) is a semi-enclosed basin situated at the northern end of the Red Sea, renowned for its exceptional marine ecosystem. To evaluate the response of the Gulf to climate variations, we analyzed various factors including temperature down to 700 m, surface air temperature, and heat fluxes. We find that the sea temperature is rising at all depths despite inconclusive trends in local atmospheric variables, including the surface air temperature. The Gulf’s sea surface temperature (SST) warms at a rate of a few hundredths of a degree Celsius per year, which is comparable to the warming of the global SST and the Mediterranean Sea. The increase in sea warming is linked to fewer winter deep mixing events that used to occur more frequently in the past. Based on the analysis of the ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes, we conclude that the lateral advection of heat from the southern part of the Gulf likely leads to an increase in water temperature in the northern part of the Gulf. Our findings suggest that local ocean warming is not necessarily associated with local processes, but rather with the warming of other remote locations.
      PubDate: 2024-06-25
       
  • A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean
           sea level rise

    • Abstract: Abstract We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceability between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL). Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectories of future sea level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo simulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storylines of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results suggest that even the most optimistic sea level rise outcomes for the UK will require adaptation of up to 1 m of sea level rise for large sections of coastline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current international greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response, UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea level rise by 2300, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the upper end of the AR6 likely range sea level projections yields much larger values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. The two high-end scenarios, which are based on a recent study that showed accelerated sea level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedbacks, lead to sea level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range between about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challenges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of adaptation at some locations.
      PubDate: 2024-06-25
       
  • Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development

    • Abstract: Abstract The Arctic is one of the key regions in relation to global climate change, experiencing radical transformations in environmental governance as well as challenges in terms of its ecological protection. The region is witnessing a number of irreversible climatic shifts, such as melting permafrost, rising sea levels, contamination of the Global Ocean, and changes in the lives of indigenous people. The Arctic is a global hot spot in climate change where international cooperation (scientific, environmental, diplomatic, etc.) should be a priority to overcome existing ecological challenges. This article provides detailed analysis of these issues from cross-disciplinary perspectives, bringing insights from economics, history, anthropology, international relations, and political science from the perspective of literature on environmental regionalism. The article analyzes a selection of heterogeneous actors, many of whom have contradictory rules, norms, and priorities. Analysis of the Arctic through the lens of regional environmental governance aspires to contribute to understanding of the complexity of existing challenges and their potential solutions. This article offers an analysis of the major findings in this topical collection. It contributes to the development of cross-disciplinary approach to the studies of the Artic and outlines a research agenda.
      PubDate: 2024-06-20
       
  • Growing deviations between elite and non-elite media coverage of climate
           change in the United States

    • Abstract: Abstract Empirical research aimed at understanding public awareness and opinion on climate change has focused heavily on media coverage. Nearly all prior media studies focus on the United States and on a small number of elite news sources, notably the national newspapers of record. To widen the aperture, we take advantage of a database (MediaCloud) that covers a much larger array of print and word media: 168 million articles about all subjects, derived from 9000 unique U.S. news sources. Coverage of climate change from the “heartland” sources—dominated by state and local news outlets far from the headquarters of national newspapers of record—has risen 144% from 2011 until 2022. Elite news coverage, however, has risen at twice that pace (299%). Over time, the propensity to cover climate change has diverged. In 2011 there were 104 days when the heartland news sources had more coverage of climate change than elite news outlets such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. By 2022 there were only 11 such days. That year, elite news outlets produced roughly three times the coverage of climate change as heartland news outlets. We also find some differences in the topics covered by these two categories of news sources. Such disparities in the intensity of attention to climate change, along with apparently more subtle variations in topical coverage, are variations that deserve future explanation. They are also a reminder that analysis of climate coverage should choose data sources with care since the narrative around what the public is learning about climate appears to vary substantially between heartland and elite new sources.
      PubDate: 2024-06-13
       
  • “I start to doubt whether any of my actions will matter”: youth
           activists’ experiences and expressions of the emotions associated with
           climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract This study provides insights on the ways that youth express and process the emotions arising from their involvement in climate action. The specific objectives were to: (1) understand the ways youth come to know, conceptualize and reflect on climate change, (2) explore how youth’s emotions in response to climate change impacts their everyday lives; and (3) determine the modalities in which youth are expressing and processing such emotions. We used a grounded theory approach and the photovoice interview method to elicit participant’s views on climate-change-related emotions and interviews were analysed using qualitative data analysis software according to a grounded theory approach. The study resulted in identifying key themes, as well as supports for youth experiencing difficult emotions associated with climate change.
      PubDate: 2024-06-12
       
  • Sequential learning of climate change via a physical-parameter-based
           state-space model and Bayesian inference

    • Abstract: Abstract Flexible decision-making strategies provide an alternative option for climate adaptation by considering future learning of climate change. A physical-parameter-based state-space model (SSM) with Bayesian inference is developed in this work to investigate reduction of uncertainty from more observations and facilitate flexible adaptation strategies. This SSM method integrates a two-layer, energy-balance model to describe global mean temperature response, models multiple sources of uncertainty such as climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, and uses the informative priors from processing Global Climate Model simulations. Focusing on global mean temperature anomaly, which has important implications on policies and related impacts, the SSM is assessed by applying it to both historical and pseudo-observations (i.e., model simulations used as observations), assessing the posterior probabilities of physical parameters, and evaluating reduction of projection uncertainty. Some limitations of the method are observed, such as the sensitivity related to the adopted forcing time series. Comparing the end-of-the-century projections of global mean temperature sequentially made at year 2020, 2050, and 2080 using pseudo-observations, the reduction of uncertainty from the SSM is evident: the range of 95% prediction intervals on average decreases from 1.9°C in 2020 to 1.0°C in 2050, and to 0.6°C in 2080 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 (or from 2.7°C, to 1.2°C and to 0.7°C under SSP5-8.5). These results illustrate how the SSM framework provides probabilistic projections of climate change that can be sequentially updated with more observations, and this process can facilitate flexible adaptation strategies.
      PubDate: 2024-06-11
       
  • The climate niche of Homo Sapiens

    • Abstract: Abstract The increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will place humans in climates that are unprecedented in the evolution of the species. I use the ecological definition of the human niche in climate space, and combine this with a new constellation of methods from extreme value statistics to study human occupation near the boundaries of that niche. I find that the temperature distribution has a thin tail whereas the tail of precipitation is thick. This thick tail reflects that humans are used to a wide range of rainfall regimes, so future precipitation changes, although leading to unprecedented rainfall, are less likely to pose a major challenge. An increase in temperature, on the other hand, will put hundreds of millions of people in heat that is not just unprecedented and but also hard to imagine from extrapolating current temperatures. These findings are qualitatively similar but an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies.
      PubDate: 2024-06-10
       
  • Models of sub-national U.S. quasi-governmental organizations: implications
           for climate adaptation governance

    • Abstract: Abstract The politicization of climate change and the difficulty of achieving multi-level or sectoral stakeholder coordination are common institutional barriers to effective climate change adaptation governance outcomes. In the U.S., quasi-government organizations (QGOs) were designed to overcome such barriers, albeit traditionally for non-climatic purposes. This study’s objective is to illustrate how the design characteristics of QGOs may be useful for overcoming the above climate adaptation barriers. Methodologically, this paper analyzes six case studies, selected to illustrate the major characteristics of QGOs, of climate-focused and non climate-focused QGOs at the sub-national level in the U.S. Non climate-focused examples are included for comparison with, and to supplement, the limited number of QGOs currently working on climate efforts. For each case, this study focuses on eight design characteristics: seven that represent measures of political and financial independence, and one focused on board composition, to illustrate the extent to which QGOs enable multi-level and multi-sectoral stakeholder coordination. This study finds that among the assortment of existing QGO designs some are particularly well suited to overcoming either the politicization of climate adaptation policy or obstacles to enhancing policy coordination, while some reduce both, albeit to a lesser extent. Broadly, this paper concludes that QGOs can strengthen effective action by depoliticizing informational sources and fostering cross scale coordination of planning and implementation.
      PubDate: 2024-06-10
       
  • Climate changes and food-borne pathogens: the impact on human health and
           mitigation strategy

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change has emerged as a major pressing global issue with far-reaching implications for human health, such as the emerging and spread of food-borne pathogens. Food-borne pathogens are microorganisms that can cause illness in humans, from mild discomfort to life-threatening diseases, through the consumption of contaminated food or water. The impact of climate change on food-borne pathogens is multifaceted and includes changes in the environment, agriculture, and human behavior. This review article examines the effect of climate change on food-borne pathogens, explores the connection between climate change and food-borne illness, records the current evidence on the effects of climate change on food-borne pathogens and potential consequences for human health, highlights knowledge gaps and areas for further research, and summarizes the strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Understanding the delicate relationship between climate change and food-borne infections makes it possible to maintain food systems and defend the health and well-being of populations worldwide.
      PubDate: 2024-06-06
       
  • Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of
           Malawi

    • Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.
      PubDate: 2024-05-31
       
  • “We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility
           and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication
           and enactment of climate science

    • Abstract: Abstract The growing understanding of how and why the climate is changing has led to mounting calls on climate scientists to take on more responsibility in the context of climate science. While an increasing responsibilisation takes place in the academic literature, asking scientists to “do more”, there is limited engagement with the responsibilities that scientists already assume in practice. Drawing on novel empirical insights from 77 semi-structured interviews with participants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I take the increasing ‘peer-to-peer responsibilisation’ as a point of departure to contextualise such calls, asking what scientists themselves already feel and assume responsibility for at both the personal and professional level. I find that climate experts participating in the IPCC not only assume increasing responsibility across different stages of the IPCC process but also beyond. As my data analysis demonstrates, IPCC participants increasingly feel and take on responsibility not only for producing and assessing climate science but also for communicating and/or enacting it (PACE). The contribution of the article is threefold. Firstly, it makes sense of the mounting peer-to-peer responsibilisation by surfacing and contextualising how, why and with what consequences particular climate knowledge holders already assume responsibility for climate science at four key moments (PACE). Secondly, conceiving of the IPCC as a community of practice, the article provides novel insights into the work of IPCC participants and their individual experiences with the institution and its processes. Thirdly, the article adds evidence to a growing body of literature on practices of responsibility and climate emotions by focussing on participants' individual affective experiences. As the 7th Assessment Cycle gathers pace, I propose some measures the IPCC may undertake to support participants in assuming their responsibilities in the context of climate science.
      PubDate: 2024-05-29
       
  • Validation of the Hogg Climate Anxiety Scale

    • Abstract: Abstract As one of the biggest environmental and equality challenges of our time, climate change is causing some people to experience climate anxiety. To address the need for valid and reliable measurement of this construct, we adapted the Hogg Eco-Anxiety Scale to measure climate anxiety in the United Kingdom (n = 501) and United States (n = 508). In both samples, we found the Hogg Climate Anxiety Scale (HCAS) was comprised of four dimensions: affective symptoms, behavioural symptoms, ruminative thoughts, and anxiety about one’s personal impact. The four-factor HCAS fit the data well, showed measurement invariance in these two samples, and all dimensions were internally consistent. Importantly, we also provide evidence for convergent validity by demonstrating that HCAS scores were positively correlated with an alternative measure of eco-anxiety and a more general indicator of worry in one’s daily life. The dimensions of the HCAS also showed distinct associations with theoretically related constructs, for example only personal impact anxiety and rumination were significant predictors of taking collective action on climate change, and personal impact anxiety was distinctly predictive of climate inequality beliefs. We recommend the HCAS as a brief (13 item) measurement tool to capture experiences of climate anxiety.
      PubDate: 2024-05-22
       
  • Communicating climate futures: a multi-country study of how the media
           portray the IPCC scenarios in the 2021/2 Working Group reports

    • Abstract: Abstract The way governments and policy makers think about climate futures has a wide-ranging impact on how they formulate policy and plan for climate change impacts. In the lead-up to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC adopted a new scenarios framework that aimed to provide a fuller picture of the interacting elements and policy choices that affect climate change. However, these scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are complex and difficult to communicate. Most audiences, including policy makers, receive much of their information about climate change from mainstream media, and particularly online news sites. We therefore examined the five most popular online news sites in the UK and the USA, five popular English-language news sites in India, English-language news media from a wide range of African countries, and the Reuters News agency. Based on manual content analysis to assess 252 articles, we identify several important findings, amongst them: in all countries, the media provide little detailed explanation of how scenarios are developed, very little mention of SSPs, and virtually no detailed explanations of them; generally, journalists use the words ‘projections’, ‘futures’, and ‘pathways’ when talking about the IPCC scenarios, although some usage of ‘predictions’ or ‘forecasts’ is apparent; contrary to previous research, there were very few doomsday narratives such as ‘only 12 years to act’. We conclude by drawing out some implications for more effective communication of the IPCC scenarios.
      PubDate: 2024-05-16
       
  • Public understanding of climate change terminology in Germany

    • Abstract: Abstract The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other institutions communicate about climate change to international audiences without a background in climate science, including the general public. The effectiveness of climate change communications may be undermined by their use of complex terminology. Bruine de Bruin et al. (2021) found that Americans struggled to understand key terms from IPCC reports. Here, we examined how 24 Germans interpreted German translations of these key terms, including tipping point, unprecedented transition, carbon neutral, carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere, adaptation, mitigation of climate change/ of greenhouse gas emissions, sustainable development, and abrupt change. We also presented these terms in the context of sentences taken from German-language IPCC reports. We identified common themes and misunderstandings. Overall, 93% of the themes arose by the 10th interview, and no new themes arose after the 18th interview. While interviewees initially rated most terms as easy to understand, both climate-concerned and climate-ambivalent interviewees were unfamiliar with some terms or combinations of terms, unsure of the link to climate change, and confused about details. Some also expressed mistrust. Moreover, all sentences were perceived as too long and complex. We discuss the implications of these findings for climate change communications.
      PubDate: 2024-05-15
       
  • Exploring the impact of the recent global warming on extreme weather
           

    • Abstract: Abstract We study the impact of recent global warming on extreme climatic events in Central Asia (CA) for 1901-2019 by comparing the composite representation of the observational climate with a hypothetical counterfactual one that does not include the long-term global warming trend. The counterfactual climate data are produced based on a simple detrending approach, using the global mean temperature (GMT) as the independent variable and removing the long-term trends from the climate variables of the observational data. This trend elimination is independent of causality, and the day-to-day variability in the counterfactual climate remains preserved. The analysis done in the paper shows that the increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation events can be attributed to global warming. Specifically, the probability of experiencing a +7 K temperature anomaly event in CA increases by up to a factor of seven in some areas due to global warming. The analysis reveals a significant increase in heatwave occurrences in Central Asia, with the observational climate dataset GSWP3-W5E5 (later called also factual) showing more frequent and prolonged extreme heat events than hypothetical scenarios without global warming. This trend, evident in the disparity between factual and counterfactual data, underscores the critical impact of recent climatic changes on weather patterns, highlighting the urgent need for robust adaptation and mitigation strategies. Additionally, using the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), the sensitivity of dry and wet events to the coupled precipitation and temperature changes is analyzed. The areas under dry and wet conditions are enhanced under the observational climate compared to a counterfactual scenario, especially over the largest deserts in CA. The expansion of the dry regions aligns well with the pattern of desert development observed in CA in recent decades.
      PubDate: 2024-05-15
       
  • Publicly expressed climate scepticism is greatest in regions with high CO2
           emissions

    • Abstract: Abstract We analysed a recently released corpus of climate-related tweets to examine the macro-level factors associated with public declarations of climate change scepticism. Analyses of over 2 million geo-located tweets in the U.S. showed that climate scepticism – and the aggressiveness of climate-related tweets – was greater in states with higher per capita carbon emissions. This pattern remained significant after controlling for political conservatism, GDP per capita, education, and gender, and was replicated across 126 nations from around the world. The findings are consistent with a vested interest hypothesis—misinformation around climate change is most likely to be distributed in regions where there is high fossil fuel reliance, and where the economic stakes of acknowledging climate change are high. Understanding the macro-level patterns that are implicated in climate scepticism can help inform structural interventions for those seeking a low-carbon future.
      PubDate: 2024-05-13
       
 
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