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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
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  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2467 journals]
  • Governing the green economy in the Arctic

    • Abstract: Abstract In Sweden’s Norrbotten County, a “green transition” driven by market demand and new normative structures is underway, creating a regional mega-project designed to put Sweden at the forefront of emerging green industries. These industries, such as carbon-neutral steel fabrication, battery production, and data center hosting, all require large amounts of energy, land, and minerals. This paper applies the regional environmental governance framework to Arctic data to examine which stakeholders have the capacity to impose their agenda on the Arctic environment and the points of conflict and collaboration during this period of accelerated growth. The paper tests the assumption that regional governance accommodates a plurality of interests. A case study examining Norrbotten County’s industrial mega-project centered around Luleå, Sweden, identifies a dominant coalition uniting government and industry that supports norms seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this region. However, the existing regional governance model does a poor job of integrating the local Indigenous Sámi preferences for land use. At the core of the difference between actors advancing the green economy and the local Sámi reindeer herders are divergent conceptions of nature and sustainability.
      PubDate: 2023-03-27
  • Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract This study tests the hypotheses that overall environmental knowledge and climate-specific knowledge are inversely related to climate change anxiety, such that people who know more (less) about the environment in general, and about climate in particular, are less (more) anxious about climate change. Time lagged data were collected from N = 2,066 individuals in Germany. Results showed that, even after controlling for demographic characteristics, personality characteristics, and environmental attitudes, overall environmental knowledge and climate-specific knowledge were negatively related to climate change anxiety (both B = -.09, p < .001).
      PubDate: 2023-03-23
  • Correction to: Climate justice in higher education: a proposed paradigm
           shift towards a transformative role for colleges and universities

    • PubDate: 2023-03-20
  • Adapting nomadic pastoralism to climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract This paper presents the results of a detailed review of the research literature on how nomadic pastoralists are being affected by climate change, how they are adapting, and challenges with using traditional knowledge in adaptation. It focuses on research that investigates local, and particularly traditional, knowledge of water, pasture, their variability, and livestock. This knowledge underpins nomadic livelihoods, so is a foundation for effective adaptation. Changes in the total amount of precipitation, and particularly shifts in its timing, and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, are having the greatest impacts on herding livelihoods. Herders in drylands worldwide face common adaptation challenges: declining traditional water sources and pasture degradation. Herders’ adaptation strategies fall into five major categories: movement to areas with better water and pasture, improving seasonal access to water, improving seasonal access to feed, shifts in herd composition, and livelihood diversification. Movement is central to nomads’ adaptation, yet, as climate change takes hold, restrictions on movement are increasing for both socio-economic reasons and climate reasons. Many papers emphasised the importance of combining traditional knowledge and current science to guide adaptation decision-making at household, locality, and national levels. There is widespread concern about the decline in traditional knowledge. All the papers reviewed emphasised the need to support passing on traditional know-how. Herder women’s know-how, in particular, is marginalised in the research literature, so their traditional knowledge should be a focus in further research. Herders’ adaptations are mostly localised, incremental, and have a relatively short-term focus. As nomadic pastoralism moves further outside the range of historical experience, the possibility of more profound transformations looms.
      PubDate: 2023-03-18
  • Incorporating Indigenous voices in regional climate change adaptation:
           opportunities and challenges in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    • Abstract: Abstract As the impacts of climate change increasingly and disproportionately affect indigenous peoples, equitable approaches to regional climate change adaptation must center the voices, needs, and priorities of Indigenous communities. Although the tribal climate change principles identify actionable recommendations to address the unique needs of Indigenous peoples in the contexts of climate change adaptation efforts undertaken at the Federal level in the United States (U.S.), there has yet to be exploration of how such principles might be applied at the regional level. Through semi-structured qualitative interviews with 18 representatives from inter-Tribal organizations and non-Tribal organizations engaged in regional climate adaptation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, this research sought to describe challenges faced by, and opportunities available to, non-Tribal entities when engaging with Tribes on regional climate adaptation initiatives. All respondents reported high levels of motivation to work with Tribes on climate adaptation and identified several perceived benefits of integrating Tribal partnerships and indigenous ways of knowing into regional climate adaptation initiatives. Respondents underscored the need for strong, trusted relationships that respect the sovereignty and priorities of Tribal nations to guide engagement. However, non-Tribal organizations’ own capacity constraints, perceived Tribal capacity constraints, and institutional cultures rooted in colonialism and structural racism were discussed as obstacles to meaningful engagement. As such, we identify an urgent need to prioritize sustained investments in both Tribal and non-Tribal actors’ partnership capacities and climate change adaptation capabilities to place Indigenous voices and needs at the forefront of regional climate change adaptation planning and implementation.
      PubDate: 2023-03-09
  • The influence of future weather pattern changes and projected sea-level
           rise on coastal flood impacts around the UK

    • Abstract: Abstract When local extreme water levels surpass defences, the consequences can be devastating. We assess the importance of sea-level rise and future weather pattern changes on UK coastal flood impacts. Historical weather pattern classifications are matched with the observed skew surges and significant wave heights. Coastal-risk weather patterns are then defined as ≥ 1% of events in the distribution exceeding the local warning threshold. We combine this methodology with projections of sea-level rise and weather pattern frequency occurrences, to determine the relative importance of each on future coastal risk. A deep low-pressure system situated to the west of Ireland (WP29) has the highest probability (6.3%) of exceeding Newlyn’s present-day warning threshold; this is projected to increase under climate change to 46.2% by 2050 under RCP2.6. This work found that weather patterns associated with storm surges are increasing and decreasing in frequency; a synoptic situation causing windy conditions in the north of the UK (WP23) will increase by > 40% under RCP8.5 by the end of the century (2079–2090). When combining the impact of sea-level rise and changing frequency of weather patterns, this study found that sea-level rise dominates future coastal risk and is highly linked to the future emission scenarios. The need for successful adaptation, such as coastal defence improvements and early warning systems, will become even more important under the higher emission pathway. The most significant increases in coastal risk are found along the east coast, through the English Channel to the north Devon coastline.
      PubDate: 2023-03-06
  • Vulnerability of diked marsh ecosystems under climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Diked marsh soils are natural laboratories where soil-forming processes take place over a short period of time, such as the aeration of previously water-saturated soil environments along with desalinization. These manmade ecosystems are threatened by climate change in multiple ways. Since long-term data to evaluate the vulnerability of these settings is scarce, we merged hydrological (water table, WT; electrical conductivity, EC; sea level rise), pedological (redox potential, EH; air-filled porosity, AFP), and meteorological variables (evapotranspiration, ET0; climatic water balance, CWB), and discussed the holistic relationship between these under future climate scenarios. Our multifactorial data identified ET0 as the strongest driver of WT development with a causal dependency on AFP and subsequently on EH. Within 11 years of intense monitoring, we encountered an extension of the soils’ aeration windows (EH > 300 mV) due to an enhanced seasonal WT component; i.e., the difference between winter and summer WT positions increased. This process has an impact on capillary rise from groundwaters and EC patterns due to increased seasonal variations. Desalinization stabilized two decades after diking, and the present EC does not indicate any saltwater intrusion to these near-coastal settings at present. However, sea level rise and a reduced CWB in the future will foster capillary rise from potentially salt-enriched groundwaters into the topsoils of these highly productive ecosystems. These mechanisms need to be evaluated to account for climate change–driven impacts on coastal-diked marsh soils. Indeed, a holistic view of pedological, meteorological, and hydrological variables is urgently needed.
      PubDate: 2023-03-01
  • Breaking the climate spiral of silence: lessons from a COP26 climate
           conversations campaign

    • Abstract: Abstract Conversations about climate change are crucially important for mobilizing climate action, as well as for processing emotions and finding meaning in times of crisis. However, limited guidance exists on how to successfully facilitate these discussions, especially among individuals with a wide range of beliefs, knowledge levels, and opinions about climate change. Here, we describe the Talk Climate Change project — an Oxford University student-led climate conversation campaign associated with the 2021 United Nations COP26 meeting. Over 1000 individuals across 40 countries held climate-related discussions. They then described their discussions in submissions to an interactive conversation map (www.talkclimatechange.org), along with messages to COP26. We reflect on the campaign’s outcomes and offer advice on overcoming barriers to effective climate dialogue; how to handle emotional responses; and other considerations for catalyzing meaningful and productive climate discussions. We call for a stronger focus on training conversational skills, providing context-specific discussion resources, and empowering diverse people to have conversations about climate change among their families, friends, coworkers, and communities.
      PubDate: 2023-02-23
  • Addressing unavoidable climate change loss and damage: A case study from
           Fiji’s sugar industry

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change loss and damage (L&D) presents an existential threat to the Fiji Islands. This case study examines how rural Indo-Fijian sugarcane farming communities face challenges in minimising, averting, and addressing L&D from cyclones. In-depth semi-structured interviews (n = 68) were conducted with 40 sugarcane farmers in two Indo-Fijian sugarcane communities, Barotu and Toko settlements in Western Viti Levu, Fiji, and with 28 key stakeholders from government ministries, academia, and climate change response services. Despite implementing climate change adaptation measures, Fiji’s sugar industry has faced devastating L&D from frequent and severe cyclones. Much of the climate change L&D to crops, property, and income was irreversible and unavoidable. Non-economic loss and damage (NELD) was found insurmountable in both field sites, including the loss of homes and places of worship, cascading and flow-on effects as well as the heightening of uncertainty, fear, and trauma. Evidence suggests that L&D, including NELD, is highly context specific, and UNFCCC’s broad NELD categories do not fully capture L&D at the local level. The systematic documentation of L&D within vulnerable communities would improve understanding of L&D, including NELD, and assist to facilitate the mobilisation of immediate support and action to address L&D in countries that lack the capacities to respond independently. This paper recommends crucial policy interventions such as livelihood diversification, integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, land tenure policy reforms, and the operationalisation of the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage.
      PubDate: 2023-02-22
  • Increasing intention to reduce fossil fuel use: a protection motivation
           theory-based experimental study

    • Abstract: Abstract Reducing individual fossil fuel use is an important component of climate change mitigation, but motivating behaviour change to achieve this is difficult. Protection motivation theory (PMT) is a psychological framework that outlines the conditions under which people are more likely to be persuaded to take a specific response or action. This experimental study investigated the impact six different protection motivation theory-based messages had on intention to reduce fossil fuel use in a sample 3803 US adults recruited via Amazon Mechanical (MTurk). Only messages targeting self-efficacy and response efficacy increased intention to reduce fossil fuel use relative to the control message. However, only the self-efficacy message had an impact on its target construct (i.e. self-efficacy). As such, the mechanism for action for the response efficacy message is unclear. Furthermore, while the current study demonstrates that many of the PMT-related messages did not achieve changes in intention, this it is still possible that messages targeting these constructs could still lead to changes in intention in other modalities and when other message content is used. Given the urgency of responding to climate change, the potential for additive benefits of combining effective PMT-based messages should be considered irrespective of their mechanism as should research focused on how to effectively target other key PMT constructs.
      PubDate: 2023-02-20
  • The Treatise on Waters by Cornaro (1560) and a quantitative assessment
           of the historical sea surges “Acqua Alta” in Venice

    • Abstract: Abstract In the sixteenth century, Cornaro wrote a Treatise on Waters with personal observations and conclusions regarding the Lagoon of Venice, e.g., the sea level rise over the centuries, the difference between normal tides for astronomical forces and storm surges driven by meteorological factors, and water exchanges between the Lagoon and the Sea. He witnessed the continuous rise of the sea level since the Middle Ages and listed some public works made to adapt to this challenge, i.e., raising city paving and floors, and rebuilding bridges that had become too low. Cornaro dealt with the mark left by the algae on walls that was kept as an official (zero) reference of sea level. Using this key to measure flooding depths, and knowing the relationship between the algae front and mean sea level, a revision of the historical floods (from 1240 to 1867) is made to assess precise depths. During the deepest floods, it was possible to reach San Marco square by gondola and float on the square. The draught of past gondola types has been another key to interpret flood depths. From 1200 to 1500, the most extreme flooding depths were higher than that of 1966, i.e., the highest in the instrumental record since 1871; from 1500 to 1799, they have been quite homogeneous, close to the value observed in 1966; in the nineteenth century, they returned to be higher than that in 1966. Over eight centuries, the deepest historical floods exceeded 7 times by 40 cm the 1966 extreme depth. The city should be prepared to face this risk.
      PubDate: 2023-02-20
  • Climate justice in higher education: a proposed paradigm shift towards a
           transformative role for colleges and universities

    • Abstract: Abstract Moving beyond technocratic approaches to climate action, climate justice articulates a paradigm shift in how organizations think about their response to the climate crisis. This paper makes a conceptual contribution by exploring the potential of this paradigm shift in higher education. Through a commitment to advancing transformative climate justice, colleges and universities around the world could realign and redefine their priorities in teaching, research, and community engagement to shape a more just, stable, and healthy future. As inequitable climate vulnerabilities increase, higher education has multiple emerging opportunities to resist, reverse, and repair climate injustices and related socioeconomic and health disparities. Rather than continuing to perpetuate the concentration of wealth and power by promoting climate isolationism’s narrow focus on technological innovation and by prioritizing the financial success of alumni and the institution, colleges and universities have an opportunity to leverage their unique role as powerful anchor institutions to demonstrate climate justice innovations and catalyze social change toward a more equitable, renewable-based future. This paper explores how higher education can advance societal transformation toward climate justice, by teaching climate engagement, supporting impactful justice-centered research, embracing non-extractive hiring and purchasing practices, and integrating community-engaged climate justice innovations across campus operations. Two climate justice frameworks, Green New Deal-type policies and energy democracy, provide structure for reviewing a breadth of proposed transformational climate justice initiatives in higher education.
      PubDate: 2023-02-09
  • Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood
           risk from sea level rise

    • Abstract: Abstract Elevated flood risk due to sea level rise is expected to increase migration from coastal areas. This presents an enormous policy challenge given the hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas globally. Despite its relevance, little empirical research has been done on what drives coastal residents to migrate or stay under increased flood risk. This study aims to improve the knowledge base on this topic by collecting and analyzing unique survey data of flood-prone coastal residents in Central Vietnam. To explain permanent migration intentions under increased flood risk, we present respondents with realistic scenarios of more frequent severe flooding and utilize a theoretical framework that incorporates flood risk indicators as well as key indicators of sustainable livelihoods. Results indicate that flood risk could play a major role in future migration behavior; permanent migration intentions strongly increase under the scenarios of increased flood risk. Several individual characteristics also play an important role in the migration decision. Regression analyses reveal that respondents who implemented in situ flood adaptation, and thereby reduced their flood risk, are less inclined to migrate. Past experiences during flooding such as evacuation or the reception of help from community members or the government are also strong predictors of migration intentions. Of the sustainable livelihood indicators, social capital plays the most important role, where a larger social network inside (outside) the place of residence is negatively (positively) related to migration intentions. We draw lessons from these insights for policymakers aiming to anticipate the challenge of sea level rise-induced migration.
      PubDate: 2023-01-25
  • Farmers’ social networks and regional spillover effects in agricultural
           climate change mitigation

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change poses a severe threat to global agricultural production and rural livelihoods, and since agriculture itself is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it can also play an important role in climate change mitigation. This article investigates how farmers’ social networks influence the adoption of on-farm mitigation strategies. More precisely, we use a network autocorrelation model to explore the relationship between a farmer’s own mitigation behavior and the mitigation behavior and knowledge of his fellow farmers. The analysis is based on a regional case study in Switzerland and uses data obtained from personal network interviews combined with survey and census data of 50 farmers. Half of them are members of a local collective action initiative for agricultural climate change mitigation, while the others do not participate in the initiative. We find that, on average, farmers with a larger network adopt more mitigation measures, and furthermore, mitigation adoption is linked with the level of knowledge within farmers’ networks. Indeed, the likelihood that non-members will adopt mitigation measures increases if they are closely associated with members of the collective action, suggesting a local spillover effect. It follows that strengthening knowledge exchange among farmers and supporting local farmers’ initiatives can potentially contribute to the diffusion of agricultural climate change mitigation practices.
      PubDate: 2023-01-21
  • Recovering, correcting, and reconstructing precipitation data affected by
           gaps and irregular readings: The Padua series from 1812 to 1864

    • Abstract: Abstract The aim of this work is to reconstruct the 1812–1864 period of the Padua precipitation series at the daily level, using a local precipitation Log. Missing readings, cumulative amounts, and gaps often affect early precipitation series, as observers did not follow a precise protocol. Therefore, the daily amount and frequency reported in the register of observations are not homogeneous with other periods, neither comparable with other contemporary series, and need a correction. The correction methodology has been based on the daily weather notes written in the Log in parallel to the readings. Taking advantage of periods in which both weather observations and instrumental readings were regularly taken, the terms used to describe the precipitation type and intensity have been classified, analyzed statistically, calibrated, and transformed into numerical values. The weather notes enable the distribution of precipitation to be determined based on the cumulative amounts collected on consecutive rainy days into the likely precipitation that occurred on every single rainy day. In the case of missing readings, the presence of weather notes enables the missing amounts to be estimated using the relationships found previously. Finally, the recovery of additional contemporary documents made it possible to fill some gaps in this period. Using this approach, 52 years of the long Padua precipitation series have been corrected: precipitation collected for two or more rainy days has been distributed according to the actual rainy days; the rain amount fully recovered and most of the missing values reconstructed; the false extreme events corrected.
      PubDate: 2023-01-21
  • Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition:
           development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment
           in four carbon-intensive industries

    • Abstract: Abstract   Europe’s transition to an energy system compatible with limiting global heating to 1.5 °C will require radical changes in energy systems. While this will create substantial new growth industries in clean technologies, some currently important economic activities will decline. The impacts of that transition will not be the same for all regions. We map the economic vulnerability of European regions to ambitious decarbonisation scenarios in terms of employment losses in four carbon-intensive industries. To do so, we develop a composite vulnerability indicator that combines each region’s share of employment in those high-carbon industries with other dimensions of vulnerability and resilience. We then explore how regional patterns of vulnerability are influenced by the technology pathway to 2050, using four scenarios modelled using the European PRIMES model. We show that economic vulnerability to the low-carbon transition is regionally concentrated, with some regions combining high employment shares in industries expected to decline with weak adaptive capacity and high pre-existing unemployment. We also show that there is little variation in regional vulnerability arising from different transition pathways. All scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C involve large declines in all high-carbon sectors we analyse, and as a result, scenario variation does not lead to large variation in relative vulnerability of regions. The results highlight regions that may be in need of additional policy support to diversify their economies and achieve a just transition.
      PubDate: 2023-01-20
  • Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review
           for informing Pacific planning agencies

    • Abstract: Abstract Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to climate variability and change. Developing strategies for adaptation and planning processes in the Pacific requires new knowledge and updated information on climate science. In this paper, we review key climatic processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, how they may change in the future and what the impact of these changes might be. In particular, our emphasis is on the two major atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the Hadley and Walker circulations. We also examine climatic features such as the South Pacific Convergence Zone and Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as factors that modulate natural climate variability on different timescales. It is anticipated that our review of the main climate processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, as well as how these processes and drivers are likely to change in the future under anthropogenic global warming, can help relevant national agencies (such as Meteorological Services and National Disaster Management Offices) clearly communicate new information to sector-specific stakeholders and the wider community through awareness raising.
      PubDate: 2023-01-19
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z
  • Climatic controls on the survival and loss of ancient types of barley on
           North Atlantic Islands

    • Abstract: Abstract For ancient types of barley at sites in the Scottish Isles, Faroes, and Iceland, we calculated minimum temperature requirements for grain production (grain production threshold, GPT) as accumulated degree days over the cropping season. Site suitability for barley from AD 1200 to 2000 was investigated by comparing these thresholds with reconstructions of annual cropping season degree days (CSDD) using temperature and tree-ring data. In Iceland, between AD 1200 and 1500, reconstructed CSDD were more favorable in the southwest (Reykjavik), with fewer years below the GPT, than in the North, East and West, but there were two periods (1340–1389 and 1426–1475) with low average CSDD and several years below the GPT which possibly influenced the abandonment of barley cultivation around this time. Reconstructed CSDD for the Faroes (Tórshavn) had only one year below the GPT, but 15 periods of four or more consecutive years with low CSDD which would have challenged barley cultivation, especially in the thirteenth century. Reconstructed CSDD were highest for the Scottish Isles, allowing a more prominent role of barley in the farming system and economy. Nevertheless, years with poor harvests or famines were common and about half were associated with low CSDD, resulting in a significant temperature link but also demonstrating the important contribution of other factors. Despite frequent unfavorable years in both the Faroes and Scottish Isles, resilient production systems, well-adapted barley strains and socio-economic factors allowed barley cultivation to continue, and some ancient types to survive to the present day.
      PubDate: 2023-01-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03474-0
  • Climate change adaptation behaviour of forest growers in New Zealand: an
           application of protection motivation theory

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is likely to have significant impacts on the forestry sector in New Zealand. However, an understanding of how forest growers are reducing their risks from climate change impacts is still in its infancy. This paper applies the protection motivation theory to identify socio-psychological factors influencing forest growers’ adaptation to climate change. This study presents the survey results from 60 forest growers who have the combined responsibility for managing more than 70% of New Zealand’s plantation forests. We investigated whether their perceived response efficacy, self-efficacy and their understanding of response costs are predictors of their protective or adaptive measures. Based on our survey, risk reduction and risk spreading are the two types of protective measure frequently reported by the respondents to deal with climate risks. Consistent with the protection motivation theory, our findings show that respondents who are more likely to implement protective or adaptive measures if they perceive the threat severity to be high have high self-efficacy and resource efficacy, and exhibit low maladaptive responses such as evading and postponing behaviours. Furthermore, our findings also suggest that there is a low self-efficacy belief with strong maladaptive behaviour among the respondents that negatively influence their motivation to implement adaptation measures. This result provides guidance to policy makers, researchers and forest companies on how to make climate change adaptation efforts effective by considering the forest growers motivation to adapt to climate change.
      PubDate: 2023-01-17
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03469-x
  • Successive volcanic eruptions (1809–1815) and two severe famines of
           Korea (1809–1810, 1814–1815) seen through historical records

    • Abstract: Abstract Based on the government’s historical records and personal documents of the pre-modern Chosŏn Dynasty, this paper examines the socio-economic impacts in Korea in response to climatic variability from 1809 until 1819 that may have been influenced to some degree by the eruption of the “unknown volcano” (1809) and the Tambora eruption (1815). In the early 1800s, when volcanic eruptions occurred successively, the Korean Peninsula experienced a temporal precipitation variation—drought, abundant rainfall, and normalcy—twice. The precipitation variation in this period had a heavy impact on the yields of rice, major crop on the peninsula. In the phase of drought in 1809 and extreme climatic anomalies in 1814, the country suffered record poor harvests, and in the abundant rainfall phase in 1810 and 1816–1817, it had bumper crops. For this reason, 1816–1817 were the halcyon years for Korea, unlike the case of Europe and the northeastern USA which suffered from extreme climatic anomalies in those years. This case of the Korean Peninsula indicates that the climate change and natural disasters of the 1810s were influenced by not only of the single event of the Tambora eruption but of the successive eruptions of volcanoes in the 7 years from 1809 to 1815, which also affected other areas on the globe for 11 years (1809–1819).
      PubDate: 2023-01-14
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03480-w
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