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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 72  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2468 journals]
  • Insurance retreat in residential properties from future sea level rise in
           Aotearoa New Zealand

    • Abstract: Abstract How will the increased frequency of coastal inundation events induced by sea level rise impact residential insurance premiums, and when would insurance contracts be withdrawn' We model the contribution of localised sea level rise to the increased frequency of coastal inundation events. Examining four Aotearoa New Zealand cities, we combine historical tide-gauge extremes with geo-located property data to estimate the annual expected loss from this hazard, for each property, in order to establish when insurance retreat is likely to occur. We find that as sea level rise changes the frequency of inundation events, 99% of properties currently within 1% AEP coastal inundation zones can expect at least partial insurance retreat within a decade (with less than 10 cm of sea level rise). Our modelling predicts that full insurance retreat is likely within 20–25 years, with timing dependent on the property’s elevation and distance from the coast, and less intuitively, on the tidal range in each location.
      PubDate: 2024-02-27
       
  • The animal agriculture industry, US universities, and the obstruction of
           climate understanding and policy

    • Abstract: Abstract The 2006 United Nations report “Livestock’s Long Shadow” provided the first global estimate of the livestock sector’s contribution to anthropogenic climate change and warned of dire environmental consequences if business as usual continued. In the subsequent 17 years, numerous studies have attributed significant climate change impacts to livestock. In the USA, one of the largest consumers and producers of meat and dairy products, livestock greenhouse gas emissions remain effectively unregulated. What might explain this' Similar to fossil fuel companies, US animal agriculture companies responded to evidence that their products cause climate change by minimizing their role in the climate crisis and shaping policymaking in their favor. Here, we show that the industry has done so with the help of university experts. The beef industry awarded funding to Dr. Frank Mitloehner from the University of California, Davis, to assess “Livestock’s Long Shadow,” and his work was used to claim that cows should not be blamed for climate change. The animal agriculture industry is now involved in multiple multi-million-dollar efforts with universities to obstruct unfavorable policies as well as influence climate change policy and discourse. Here, we traced how these efforts have downplayed the livestock sector’s contributions to the climate crisis, minimized the need for emission regulations and other policies aimed at internalizing the costs of the industry’s emissions, and promoted industry-led climate “solutions” that maintain production. We studied this phenomenon by examining the origins, funding sources, activities, and political significance of two prominent academic centers, the CLEAR Center at UC Davis, established in 2018, and AgNext at Colorado State University, established in 2020, as well as the influence and industry ties of the programs’ directors, Dr. Mitloehner and Dr. Kimberly Stackhouse-Lawson. We developed 20 questions to evaluate the nature, extent, and societal impacts of the relationship between individual researchers and industry groups. Using publicly available evidence, we documented how the ties between these professors, centers, and the animal agriculture industry have helped maintain the livestock industry’s social license to operate not only by generating industry-supported research, but also by supporting public relations and policy advocacy.
      PubDate: 2024-02-26
       
  • Historical climate impact attribution of changes in river flow and
           sediment loads at selected gauging stations in the Nile basin

    • Abstract: Abstract The Nile basin is the second largest basin in Africa and one of the regions experiencing high climatic diversity with variability of precipitation and deteriorating water resources. As climate change is affecting most of the hydroclimatic variables across the world, this study assesses whether historical changes in river flow and sediment loads at selected gauges in the Nile basin can be attributed to climate change. An impact attribution approach is employed by constraining a process-based model with a set of factual and counterfactual climate forcing data for 69 years (1951–2019), from the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). To quantify the role of climate change, we use the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to identify trends and calculate the differences in long-term mean annual river flow and sediment load simulations between a model setup using factual and counterfactual climate forcing data. Results for selected river stations in the Lake Victoria basin show reasonable evidence of a long-term historical increase in river flows (two stations) and sediment load (one station), largely attributed to changes in climate. In contrast, within the Blue Nile and Main Nile basins, there is a slight decrease of river flows at four selected stations under factual climate, which can be attributed to climate change, but no significant changes in sediment load (one station). These findings show spatial differences in the impacts of climate change on river flows and sediment load in the study area for the historical period.
      PubDate: 2024-02-26
       
  • Academic capture in the Anthropocene: a framework to assess climate action
           in higher education

    • Abstract: Abstract Higher education institutions have a mandate to serve the public good, yet in many cases fail to adequately respond to the global climate crisis. The inability of academic institutions to commit to purposeful climate action through targeted research, education, outreach, and policy is due in large part to “capture” by special interests. Capture involves powerful minority interests that exert influence and derive benefits at the expense of a larger group or purpose. This paper makes a conceptual contribution to advance a framework of “academic capture” applied to the climate crisis in higher education institutions. Academic capture is the result of the three contributing factors of increasing financialization issues, influence of the fossil fuel industry, and reticence of university employees to challenge the status quo. The framework guides an empirical assessment evaluating eight activities and related indices of transparency and participation based on principles of climate justice and the growing democracy-climate nexus. The framework can be a helpful tool for citizens and academics to assess the potential for academic capture and capacity for more just and democratic methods of climate action in higher education. We conclude with a series of recommendations on how to refine and apply our framework and assessment in academic settings. Our goal is to further the discussion on academic capture and continue to develop tools that transform higher education institutions to places of deep democracy and innovative climate education, research, and outreach to meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.
      PubDate: 2024-02-26
       
  • Flood risk assessment and adaptation under changing climate for the
           agricultural system in the Ghanaian White Volta Basin

    • Abstract: Abstract In the context of river basins, the threat of climate change has been extensively studied. However, many of these studies centred on hazard analysis while neglecting the need for comprehensive risk assessments that account for exposure and vulnerability. Hazard analysis alone is not adequate for making adaptive decisions. Thus, to effectively manage flood risk, it is essential to understand the elements that contribute to vulnerability and exposure in addition to hazard analysis. This study aims to assess flood risk (in space and time until the year 2100) for the agricultural system, in the White Volta Basin in northern Ghana. Employing the impact chain methodology, a mix of quantitative and qualitative data and techniques were used to assess hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Multi-model climate change data (RCP 8.5) from CORDEX and observation data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were used for hazard analysis. Data on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation were collected through structured interviews. Results indicate that flood hazard will increase by 79.1% with high spatial variability of wet periods but the flood risk of the catchment will increase by 19.3% by the end of the twenty-first century. The highest flood risk is found in the Upper East region, followed by North East, Northern, Savannah, and Upper West for all four analysed periods. Adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure factors are driven by poverty, ineffective institutional governance, and a lack of livelihood alternatives. We conclude that the region is highly susceptible and vulnerable to floods, and that shifting from isolated hazard analysis to a comprehensive assessment that considers exposure and vulnerability reveals the underlying root causes of the risk. Also, the impact chain is useful in generating insight into flood risk for policymakers and researchers. We recommend the need to enhance local capacity and foster social transformation in the region.
      PubDate: 2024-02-24
       
  • Orchestrating the climate choir: the boundaries of scientists’
           expertise, the relevance of experiential knowledge, and quality assurance
           in the public climate debate

    • Abstract: Abstract Scientific knowledge is at the heart of discussions about climate change. However, it has been proposed that the apparent predominance of climate science in the societal debate should be reconsidered and that a more inclusive approach is warranted. Further, the introduction of new communication technology has made the information environment more fragmented, possibly endangering the quality of societal deliberation on climate change concerns. Using focus group methodology, this paper explores how climate scientists, climate journalists, and citizens perceive scientific experts’ mandate when they communicate publicly, the role of experiential knowledge in discussions of climate-related issues, and who the three actors prefer to guard the quality of the climate information exchanged in the public sphere. The findings show that scientific experts are perceived to carry a high degree of legitimacy, but only within their own narrow specialty, while experiential knowledge was seen as more useful in applied domains of science than in arcane research fields. In the new media landscape, journalists are still generally preferred as gatekeepers by all three actor types.
      PubDate: 2024-02-21
       
  • Correction to: A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for
           fisheries and aquaculture

    • PubDate: 2024-02-19
       
  • There is no word for ‘nature’ in our language: rethinking nature-based
           solutions from the perspective of Indigenous Peoples located in Canada

    • Abstract: Abstract Support for nature-based solutions (NbS) has grown significantly in the last 5 years. At the same time, recognition for the role of Indigenous Peoples in advancing ‘life-enhancing’ climate solutions has also increased. Despite this rapid growth, the exploration of the intersection of NbS and Indigenous Peoples has been much slower, as questions remain about the ability of NbS to be implemented while respecting Indigenous rights, governance, and knowledge systems, including in their conceptualizations. To address this knowledge gap, we draw on 17 conversational interviews with Indigenous leaders, including youth, women, technicians, and knowledge keepers from what is currently known as Canada to explore Indigenous conceptualizations of nature, nature-based solutions, and the joint biodiversity and climate crisis. Three drivers of the biodiversity and climate crisis were identified: structural legacy of colonization and capitalism, a problem of human values, and climate change as a cumulative impact from industrial disturbances. Building on this understanding, our findings indicate that shifting towards Indigenous conceptualizations of NbS as systems of reciprocal relationships would: challenge the dichotomization of humans and nature; emphasize the inseparability of land, water, and identity; internalize the principle of humility and responsibility; and invest in the revitalization of Indigenous knowledge systems. As the first exploration of Indigenous conceptualizations of nature within NbS literatures, we close with four reflections for academics, advocates, leaders, activists, and policymakers to uplift Indigenous climate solutions for a just, equitable, and resilient future.
      PubDate: 2024-02-14
       
  • Analysis, evaluation and implications of Rhode Island’s “2021 Act on
           Climate” for response to climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract The state of Rhode Island is responding appropriately to the climate crisis by enacting “the Resilient Rhode Island Act of 2014” and then preparing the revised “2021 Act on Climate.” Accordingly, Rhode Island strives to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 by establishing and evaluating a climate change response plan and setting science-based climate goals through the Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council through consultation with the Advisory Board and the Science and Technical Advisory Board. Additionally, Rhode Island is committed to establishing industry support strategies to respond to climate change, considering future generations, including children, in the impacts of climate change, utilizing the knowledge of private experts at universities, and promoting public education on climate change response. However, matters that need to be supplemented and improved in the implementation of Rhode Island’s climate change-related legal policies include the fair and transparent selection of advisors from an organizational perspective and the securing of dedicated personnel and budget for practical work.
      PubDate: 2024-02-13
       
  • Climate projections of human thermal comfort for indoor workplaces

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate models predict meteorological variables for outdoor spaces. Nevertheless, most people work indoors and are affected by heat indoors. We present an approach to transfer climate projections from outdoors to climate projections of indoor air temperature (Ti) and thermal comfort based on a combination of indoor sensors, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and 22 regional climate projections. Human thermal comfort and Ti measured by indoor sensors at 90 different workplaces in the Upper Rhine Valley were used as training data for ANN models predicting indoor conditions as a function of outdoor weather. Workplace-specific climate projections were modeled for the time period 2070–2099 and compared to the historical period 1970–1999 using the same ANNs, but ERA5-Land reanalysis data as input. It is shown that heat stress indoors will increase in intensity, frequency, and duration at almost all investigated workplaces. The rate of increase depends on building and room properties, the workplace purpose, and the representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, or RCP8.5). The projected increase of the mean air temperature in the summer (JJA) outdoors, by + 1.6 to + 5.1 K for the different RCPs, is higher than the increase in Ti at all 90 workplaces, which experience on average an increase of + 0.8 to + 2.5 K. The overall frequency of heat stress is higher at most workplaces than outdoors for the historical and the future period. The projected hours of indoor heat stress will increase on average by + 379 h, + 654 h, and + 1209 h under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively.
      PubDate: 2024-02-07
       
  • A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for fisheries and
           aquaculture

    • Abstract: Abstract Marine heatwaves pose an increasing threat to fisheries and aquaculture around the world under climate change. However, the threat has not been estimated for the coming decades in a form that meets the needs of these industries. Tasmanian fisheries and aquaculture in southeast Australia have been severely impacted by marine heatwaves in recent years, especially the oyster, abalone, and salmon industries. In a series of semi-structured interviews with key Tasmanian fishery and aquaculture stakeholders, information was gathered about the following: (i) the impacts they have experienced to date from marine heatwaves, (ii) their planning for future marine heatwaves, and (iii) the information that would be most useful to aid planning. Using CMIP6 historical and future simulations of sea surface temperatures around Tasmania, we developed a marine heatwave hazard index guided by these stakeholder conversations. The region experienced a severe marine heatwave during the austral summer of 2015/16, which has been used here as a reference point to define the index. Our marine heatwave hazard index shows that conditions like those experienced in 2015/16 are projected to occur approximately 1-in-5 years by the 2050s under a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) or 1-in-2 years under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Increased frequency of marine heatwaves will likely reduce productivity by both direct (mortality) and in-direct (ecosystem change, greater incidence of disease) impacts on target species. The illustrative hazard index is one step towards a marine heatwave risk index, which would also need to consider aspects of exposure and vulnerability to be of greater utility to stakeholders.
      PubDate: 2024-02-06
       
  • Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population
           from Bangladesh

    • Abstract: Abstract Effective climate change adaptation requires a thorough understanding of whether and how affected populations perceive climatic and environmental changes. Existing research has been inconclusive regarding the consistency of these perceptions compared to objective meteorological indicators. Moreover, no systematic comparison has been done for the perception of discrete environmental events such as floods or erosion. This study relies on novel panel survey data of approximately 1700 households residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh as well as on unique individual-level, satellite-based erosion data. It compares respondents’ perceptions of environmental events, namely riverbank erosion, and three climate change indicators, specifically long-term temperature change and changes in precipitation during wet and dry seasons, to objective measurements using satellite imagery and climatic time-series data (CRU TS). I find that long-term temperature change is perceived more accurately than long-term changes in precipitation. Given that educational attainment and climate change literacy among the study population are low, this indicates that global temperature increases are felt even by remote populations who have never heard the term climate change. Erosion is strongly overestimated, especially by those respondents who had been personally affected by it. Since human behavior is guided by perceptions rather than objective data, this has important policy implications, underlining the importance of considering people’s perceptions if the goal is to assist them in adapting to environmental changes.
      PubDate: 2024-02-01
       
  • Correction to: Assessing the remaining carbon budget through the lens of
           policy-driven acidification and temperature targets

    • PubDate: 2024-01-31
       
  • Correction to: Progress on climate action: a multilingual machine learning
           analysis of the global stocktake

    • PubDate: 2024-01-17
       
  • How the experience of California wildfires shape Twitter climate change
           framings

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate communication scientists search for effective message strategies to engage the ambivalent public in support of climate advocacy. The personal experience of wildfire is expected to render climate change impacts more concretely, pointing to a potential message strategy to engage the public. This study examined Twitter discourse related to climate change during the onset of 20 wildfires in California between the years 2017 and 2021. In this mixed method study, we analyzed tweets geographically and temporally proximal to the occurrence of wildfires to discover framings and examined how frequencies in climate framings changed before and after fires. Results identified three predominant climate framings: linking wildfire to climate change, suggesting climate actions, and attributing climate change to adversities besides wildfires. Mean tweet frequencies linking wildfire to climate change and attributing adversities increased significantly after the onset of fire. While suggesting climate action tweets also increased, the increase was not statistically significant. Temporal analysis of tweet frequencies for the three themes of tweets showed that discussion increased after the onset of a fire but persisted typically no more than 2 weeks. For fires that burned for longer periods of more than a month, external events triggered climate discussions. Our findings contribute to identifying how the personal experience of wildfire shapes Twitter discussion related to climate change, and how these framings change over time during wildfire events, leading to insights into critical time points after wildfire for implementing message strategies to increase public engagement on climate change impacts and policy.
      PubDate: 2024-01-15
       
  • Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12
           Central Asian catchments

    • Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the attribution of climate change to trends in river discharge during six decades from 1955 until 2014 in 12 selected river catchments across six Central Asian countries located upstream of the main rivers. For this purpose, the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was firstly calibrated and validated for all study catchments. Attributing climate change to streamflow simulation trends was forced by factual (reanalysis) and counterfactual climate data (assuming the absence of anthropogenic influence) proposed in the framework of the ISIMIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) or ESM without anthropogenic forcing that were firstly tested and then compared. The trend analysis was performed for three variables: mean annual discharge and high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95) indices. The results show that trends in the annual and seasonal discharge could be attributed to climate change for some of the studied catchments. In the three northern catchments (Derkul, Shagan, and Tobol), there are positive trends, and in two catchments (Sarysu and Kafirnigan), there are negative streamflow trends under the factual climate, which could be attributed to climate change. Also, our analysis shows that the average level of discharge in Murghab has increased during the historical study period due to climate change, despite the overall decreasing trend during this period. In addition, the study reveals a clear signal of shifting spring streamflow peaks in all catchments across the study area.
      PubDate: 2024-01-12
       
  • A methodology for analysing the impacts of climate change on maritime
           security

    • Abstract: Abstract This paper presents a methodology for developing a social Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) which analyses the impacts of climate change on maritime crime and maritime insecurities. The use of a CEA methodology, including the use of the Effect to Impact Pathway will enable mapping the relationships between certain ‘Activities’ (e.g. human-induced emissions of greenhouse gasses), the ‘Pressure’ engendered (e.g. warming sea temperatures) and their ‘Impacts’ (e.g. food shortages) via ‘Receptors’ (e.g. fishing communities) on specific sectors of society (in this case maritime migration and maritime crime, e.g. illegal fishing). This paper provides a Proof of Concept (PoC) for using such a methodology and shows the applicability of a multidisciplinary approach in understanding causal chains. In this PoC, the authors are generating a Non-Geographic Assessment Map that investigates the ‘Impacts’ that the human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have on maritime security. The proposed analytical tool can then be applied in further studies to assess the dependencies and synergies between climate change and the occurrence of maritime insecurity.
      PubDate: 2024-01-10
       
  • Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing
           climate

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change will push the planet worryingly close to its boundaries, across all latitudes and levels of development. One question therefore is the extent to which climate change does (and will) severely affect societies’ livelihoods, health, well-being, and cultures. This paper discusses the “severe climate risks” concept developed under Working Group II’s contribution to the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR5, and AR6). Focusing on low-lying coastal socio-ecological systems (LCS) and acknowledging that attempts to define “severe” climate risk have been problematic at the level of global syntheses, we argue for a more place- and people-based framing relating to “habitability under a changing climate.” We summarize habitability in terms of five habitability pillars: land, freshwater, food, settlement and infrastructure, and economic and subsistence activities; we acknowledge social and cultural factors (including perceptions, values, governance arrangements, human agency, power structures) as critical underlying factors rather than as separate pillars. We further develop the habitability framing and examine climate risk to future human health and habitability for three climate “hotspot” archetypes (arctic coasts, atoll islands, densely populated urban areas). Building on the IPCC AR6 framing of severe climate risks, we discuss three key parameters describing severe climate risks in LCS: the point of irreversibility of changes, physical and socio-ecological thresholds, and cascading effects across various habitability dimensions. We also highlight the variability of severe risk conditions both between coastal archetypes and within each of them. Further work should consist of refining the case study framing to find the right balance between capturing context-specificities through real-world local case studies and commonalities derived from more generic archetypes. In addition, there is a need to identify appropriate methods to assess irreversibility, thresholds, and cascading effects, and thus severe climate risks to habitability.
      PubDate: 2024-01-04
       
  • Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought
           in Central South America

    • Abstract: Abstract Since 2019, Central South America (CSA) has been reeling under drought conditions, with the last 4 months of 2022 receiving only 44% of the average total precipitation. Simultaneously to the drought, a series of record-breaking heat waves has affected the region. The rainfall deficit during October–November-December (OND) is highly correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating that the OND 2022 rainfall deficit is partly driven by La Niña, as observed in previous droughts in this region. To identify whether human-induced climate change was also a driver of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit, we analysed precipitation over the most impacted region. Our findings revealed a pattern of decreased rainfall over the past 40 years, although we cannot definitively conclude whether this trend exceeds what would be expected from natural variations. To clarify if this trend can be attributed to climate change, we looked at 1-in-20-year low rainfall events over the same region in climate models. The models show that the severity of low rainfall events decreases (i.e. they become wetter, the opposite of the trend observed in most weather records), although this trend is again not significant and is compatible with natural variability. Therefore, we cannot attribute the low rainfall to climate change. Moreover, our analysis of effective precipitation potential (evapotranspiration minus rainfall) shows that, in climate models, the increase in temperature does partly compensate for the increase in rainfall but only to offset the wetting, and does not lead to a significant climate change signal in effective precipitation. However, higher temperatures in the region, which have been attributed to climate change, decreased water availability in the models in late 2022, indicating that climate change probably reduced water availability over this period also in the observations, increasing agricultural drought, although this study did not quantify this effect. This means that even though the reduced rainfall is within the natural variability, the consequences of drought are becoming more severe due to the strong increase in extreme heat. The case of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit and the ongoing drought in CSA is a clear example of the interplay between climate variability and human-induced climate change. This shows the importance of considering not only those aspects associated with climate change but also climate variability in order to understand and attribute particular events or trends at the regional level.
      PubDate: 2023-12-21
       
  • Revolutionising sustainability leadership and education: addressing the
           

    • Abstract: Abstract Research shows that today’s societal crises are rooted in a lack of connection to ourselves, others and nature. At the same time, there is an increasing body of knowledge showing that humans possess innate capacities for connection that can be strengthened through certain methods, and throughout our lifetimes. Such methods have, so far, however, been rarely applied, or adapted to the context of sustainability leadership and education. Critical qualitative analyses and empirical evidence that would help to understand if, and how, related interventions can support sustainability outcomes across scales are vastly lacking. The present study addresses this gap. It examines global leadership programs that aim to nourish inner development and accelerate work towards the Sustainable Development Goals. More specifically, it systematises the qualitative impacts and learnings from a Climate Leadership Program for policy and decision-makers (e.g. the European Commission) that provided the basis for co-developing similar programs for the United Nations Development Program, the Inner Development Goals Initiative, and the Inner Green Deal. The findings demonstrate how sustainability leadership and education can become a vehicle for transformation, if certain principles are in place. They highlight the importance of addressing the ontological, epistemological and praxis dimensions of inner-outer transformation to empower participants to challenge unsustainable social paradigms and enable them to systematically mainstream the consideration of inner potential and capacities into existing cultures, mechanisms and structures. Our findings advance knowledge on the complex intersection between sustainability, inner development and transformation, and set a precedent that other training institutions could follow or learn from.
      PubDate: 2023-12-19
       
 
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