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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted by number of followers
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 164)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 151)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 80)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 71)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 62)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 59)
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 56)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 55)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 50)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 43)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 41)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 40)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 39)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 33)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 30)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 27)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 23)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 19)
Journal of Economic Literature     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 14)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 7)
Oxford Open Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Climate Change and Health     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Nīvār     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  

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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 71  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2469 journals]
  • Correction to: Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming
           systems in Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model

    • PubDate: 2022-09-23
  • The existential risk space of climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of the risk, i.e., where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined, and analyzed in the scientific literature. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction. This paper intends to address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, drawing on research in fields on global catastrophic risks, and on key risks and the so-called Reasons for Concern in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement as well as what can be learned in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis. To better frame existential risks in the context of climate change, we propose to define them as those risks that threaten the existence of a subject, where this subject can be an individual person, a community, or nation state or humanity. The threat to their existence is defined by two levels of severity: conditions that threaten (1) survival and (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, is commonly not part of the space of existential risks. Our definition covers a range of different scales, which leads us into further defining six analytical dimensions: physical and social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In conclusion, we suggest that a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action.
      PubDate: 2022-09-12
  • Extreme heat in New Zealand: a synthesis

    • Abstract: Abstract Extreme heatwaves are among the fastest-changing meteorological hazards in a warming world. While likely also true for New Zealand, significant knowledge gaps exist relating to the current and future risks associated with extreme heat. Using high-quality station observations dating back to at least 1972, this study presents the first detailed synthesis of the severity, frequency, and persistence of extreme heat experienced by local communities in New Zealand. Results show the hottest days of the year have warmed by more than 0.5 °C over the last 20 years for many populated regions, a rate which exceeds average annual changes across the country. When evaluating the risks associated with unusually extreme events, complex regional differences emerge. While the East Coast of both islands witness higher absolute temperatures during local heatwaves, lower levels of day-to-day temperature variability in the northern half of the North Island will translate to larger risks with further warming over the twenty-first century.
      PubDate: 2022-09-02
  • Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon

    • Abstract: Abstract The Tibetan plateau (TP) plays an important role in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) dynamics as a heat source during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. A significant contribution to the pre-monsoon TP heating comes from the sensible heat flux (SHF), which depend on the surface properties. A glaciated surface would have a different SHF compared to a non-glaciated surface. Therefore, the TP glaciers potentially can also impact the hydrological cycle in the Asian continent by impacting the ASM rainfall via its contribution to the total plateau heating. However, there is no assessment of this putative link available. Here, we attempt to qualitatively study the role of TP glaciers on ASM by analyzing the sensitivity of an atmospheric model to the absence of TP glaciers. We find that the absence of the glaciers is most felt in climatologically less snowy regions (which are mostly located at the south-central boundary of the TP during the pre-monsoon season), which leads to positive SHF anomalies. The resulting positive diabatic heating leads to rising air in the eastern TP and sinking air in the western TP. This altered circulation in turn leads to a positive SHF memory in the western TP, which persists until the end of the monsoon season. The impact of SHF anomalies on diabatic heating results in a large-scale subsidence over the ASM domain. The net result is a reduced seasonal ASM rainfall. Given the relentless warming and the vulnerability of glaciers to warming, this is another flag in the ASM variability and change that needs further attention.
      PubDate: 2022-08-30
  • Correction to: National attribution of historical climate damages

    • PubDate: 2022-08-25
  • The supply-side climate policy of decreasing fossil fuel tax profiles: can
           subsidized reserves induce a green paradox'

    • Abstract: Abstract Fossil fuel producers develop too many reserves for combustion due to subsidies for upfront development costs. The conventional wisdom is that downward-sloping tax profiles avoid green paradox outcomes by reducing present extraction. This paper shows that accounting for subsidized reserves development can induce green paradox outcomes for downward-sloping income tax profiles. A theoretical model linking reserves development and extraction with climate change damages is developed to explore conditions for the weak and strong green paradox outcomes of higher present extraction and cumulative damages. We find that the weak green paradox arises under higher and flatter income tax profiles. The strong green paradox is an ambiguous outcome without subsidized reserves development. Quantitative examples demonstrate the effect of downward-sloping tax profiles on crude oil extraction and how the strong green paradox arises when delayed emissions are less relevant for damages.
      PubDate: 2022-08-22
  • Russian coal in a changing climate: risks and opportunities for industry
           and government

    • Abstract: Abstract As one of the world’s major coal-producing and exporting states, Russia is central to discussions on the future of the industry in the context of global climate change. This is a question that has become particularly salient in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Yet despite this, Russia remains understudied in the literature. As a result, we know little about the extent to which Russia is likely to contribute to the alleviation of coal-driven climate change or to its exacerbation. This analysis seeks to examine this question from the perspective of the coal industry, by exploring whether and how Russia’s coal companies incorporate the vulnerabilities and risks around climate change into their corporate presence and behaviour, and how this aligns with broader government policy on the coal industry. Drawing on a range of primary and secondary sources, including corporate reporting, government documents, and media commentary, this analysis identifies two central narratives emerging from coal companies. The first is focused on the risks around climate change, primarily in relation to reputation, increased regulation, and access to markets that a climate-driven global shift away from coal might entail. The second narrative acknowledges the potential opportunities around technology and ‘green coal’. Within government, both the pro-coal and coal-sceptic lobby recognise the significance of climate change; however, it is used purely instrumentally in policy debates. The coal sceptics employ climate to highlight risks around global reductions in coal demand but are unable to challenge government support for the industry. Ultimately, our findings suggest that both company behaviour and government policy in Russia remain strongly pro-coal, and that it will take a significant drop in global demand for that to change. We conclude that, before the invasion of Ukraine, selling as much coal as possible was a greater government priority than climate change policy, and the invasion is unlikely to shift the balance the other way.
      PubDate: 2022-08-19
  • Farmers adapt to climate change irrespective of stated belief in climate
           change: a California case study

    • Abstract: Abstract Farmers are front-line workers managing climatic change. As in many parts of the world, climate change in northern California is threatening natural resource-dependent communities by exacerbating droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. This article draws on ethnographic methods, including 108 interviews with crop and livestock farmers and key informants, to query climate change experience, belief, and response in rural northeastern California. I find that farmers recognize and describe climate changes that match the meteorologic evidence of anthropogenic climate change, but attribute these changes to weather cycles and harsh geographies. However, irrespective of their belief in anthropogenic climate change, farmers implement climate adaptations—many of these practices with mitigation co-benefits, bolstering growing evidence that climate change belief and action are not tightly coupled. To accelerate farmer adaptation, this work suggests that policy and programming focus on actions and outcomes, rather than reshaping belief.
      PubDate: 2022-08-13
  • Evaluating the distributional fairness of alternative adaptation policies:
           a case study in Vietnam’s upper Mekong Delta

    • Abstract: Abstract To support equitable adaptation planning, quantitative assessments should consider the fairness of the distribution of outcomes to different people. What constitutes a fair distribution, however, is a normative question. In this study, we explore the use of different moral principles drawn from theories of distributive justice to evaluate fairness. We use adaptation planning in Vietnam Mekong Delta as a case study. We evaluate the preference ranking of six alternative policies for seven moral principles across an ensemble of scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, each principle yields distinctive preference rankings, though most principles identify the same policy as the most preferred one. Across the ensemble of scenarios, the commonly used utilitarian principle yields the most stable ranking, while rankings from other principles are more sensitive to uncertainty. The sufficientarian and the envy-free principles yield the most distinctive ranking of policies, with a median ranking correlation of only 0.07 across all scenarios. Finally, we identify scenarios under which using these two principles results in reversed policy preference rankings. Our study highlights the importance of considering multiple moral principles in evaluating the fairness of adaptation policies, as this would reduce the possibility of maladaptation.
      PubDate: 2022-08-02
  • Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and
           nested convection-permitting model data

    • Abstract: Abstract Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on river flows is critically important for adaptation. Data from global or nested regional climate models (GCMs/RCMs) are frequently used to drive hydrological models, but now there are also very high-resolution convection-permitting models (CPMs). Here, data from the first CPM climate ensemble for the UK, along with the RCM ensemble within which the CPM is nested, are used to drive a grid-based hydrological model. The performance for simulating baseline (1981–2000) river flows is compared between the RCM and the CPM, and the projections of future changes in seasonal mean flows and peak flows are compared across Britain (1981–2000 to 2061–2080). The baseline performance assessment shows that (before bias correction) the CPM generally performs better than the RCM, and bias correction of precipitation makes both the RCM and CPM perform more similarly to use of observation-based driving data. The analysis of future changes in flows shows that the CPM almost always gives higher flow changes than the RCM. If reliable, these differences in flow projections suggest that adaptation planning for high flows based on use of regional data may be insufficient, although planning for low flows may be slightly over-cautious. However, the availability of CPM data only for one RCM/GCM is a limitation for use in adaptation as it under-samples the uncertainty range. There are significant challenges to the wider application of CPM ensembles, including the high computational and data storage demands.
      PubDate: 2022-07-19
  • Social norms explain prioritization of climate policy

    • Abstract: Abstract Most people in the United States recognize the reality of climate change and are concerned about its consequences, yet climate change is a low priority relative to other policy issues. Recognizing that belief in climate change does not necessarily translate to prioritizing climate policy, we examine psychological factors that may boost or inhibit prioritization. We hypothesized that perceived social norms from people’s own political party influence their climate policy prioritization beyond their personal belief in climate change. In Study 1, a large, diverse sample of Democratic and Republican participants (N = 887) reported their prioritization of climate policy relative to other issues. Participants’ perceptions of their political ingroup’s social norms about climate policy prioritization were the strongest predictor of personal climate policy prioritization—stronger even than participants’ belief in climate change, political orientation, environmental identity, and environmental values. Perceptions of political outgroup norms did not predict prioritization. In Study 2 (N = 217), we experimentally manipulated Democratic and Republican descriptive norms of climate policy prioritization. Participants’ prioritization of climate policy was highest when both the political ingroup and the outgroup prioritized climate policy. Ingroup norms had a strong influence on personal policy prioritization whereas outgroup norms did not. These findings demonstrate that, beyond personal beliefs and other individual differences, ingroup social norms shape the public’s prioritization of climate change as a policy issue.
      PubDate: 2022-07-18
  • At the intersection of mind and climate change: integrating inner
           dimensions of climate change into policymaking and practice

    • Abstract: Abstract Dominant policy approaches have failed to generate action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth needed to avert climate change and environmental disaster. In particular, they fail to address the need for a fundamental cultural transformation, which involves a collective shift in mindsets (values, beliefs, worldviews and associated inner human capacities). Whilst scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrative approaches, knowledge on how the link between our mind and the climate crisis can be best addressed in policy responses is still scarce. Our study addresses this gap. Based on a survey and in-depth interviews with high-level policymakers worldwide, we explore how they perceive the intersection of mind and climate change, how it is reflected in current policymaking and how it could be better considered to support transformation. Our findings show, on the one hand, that the mind is perceived as a victim of increasing climate impacts. On the other hand, it is considered a key driver of the crisis, and a barrier to action, to the detriment of both personal and planetary wellbeing. The resultant vicious cycle of mind and climate change is, however, not reflected in mainstream policymaking, which fails to generate more sustainable pathways. At the same time, there are important lessons from other fields (e.g. education, health, the workplace, policy mainstreaming) that provide insights into how to integrate aspects of mind into climate policies. Our results show that systematic integration into policymaking is a key for improving both climate resilience and climate responsiveness across individual, collective, organisational and system levels and indicate the inner human potential and capacities that support related change. We conclude with some policy recommendations and further research that is needed to move from a vicious to a virtuous cycle of mind and climate change that supports personal and planetary wellbeing.
      PubDate: 2022-07-15
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03398-9
  • National attribution of historical climate damages

    • Abstract: Abstract Quantifying which nations are culpable for the economic impacts of anthropogenic warming is central to informing climate litigation and restitution claims for climate damages. However, for countries seeking legal redress, the magnitude of economic losses from warming attributable to individual emitters is not known, undermining their standing for climate liability claims. Uncertainties compound at each step from emissions to global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, GHG concentrations to global temperature changes, global temperature changes to country-level temperature changes, and country-level temperature changes to economic losses, providing emitters with plausible deniability for damage claims. Here we lift that veil of deniability, combining historical data with climate models of varying complexity in an integrated framework to quantify each nation’s culpability for historical temperature-driven income changes in every other country. We find that the top five emitters (the United States, China, Russia, Brazil, and India) have collectively caused US$6 trillion in income losses from warming since 1990, comparable to 14% of annual global gross domestic product; many other countries are responsible for billions in losses. Yet the distribution of warming impacts from emitters is highly unequal: high-income, high-emitting countries have benefited themselves while harming low-income, low-emitting countries, emphasizing the inequities embedded in the causes and consequences of historical warming. By linking individual emitters to country-level income losses from warming, our results provide critical insight into climate liability and national accountability for climate policy.
      PubDate: 2022-07-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03387-y
  • Unravelling the effect of climate change on fire danger and fire behaviour
           in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)

    • Abstract: Abstract The impacts of wildfires are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin due to more extreme fire seasons featuring increasingly fast and high-intensity fires, which often overwhelm the response capacity of fire suppression forces. Fire behaviour is expected to become even more severe due to climate change. In this study, we quantified the effect of climate change on fire danger (components of the Canadian FWI System) and wildfire behaviour characteristics (rate of spread and fireline intensity) for the four major Mediterranean forest ecosystems located in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The effect of climate change on wildfire behaviour was supplemented by taking into account net primary production (NPP), hence fuel load. Our results show that the meteorological fire season will start earlier and end later, leading to a significant increase in the number of days with weather conditions that promote high-intensity wildfires, for both climate scenarios. Fuel type shapes how wildfire spread characteristics will unfold. The most relevant changes are projected to occur in pine forests, where a wildfire with median fireline intensity will offer serious resistance to control from spring to autumn. The severity of fire behaviour in shrublands also increases substantially when considering climate change, with high-intensity wildfires potentially occurring in any time of the year. Both deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests are predicted to typically generate wildfires with low enough intensity to remain within suppression capability. By adjusting fuel load to future climate conditions, our results highlight that fireline intensity in deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests may not increase during summer, and can even be significantly reduced in shrublands. This study suggests that improved fire planning and management of wildfire-prone landscapes will counteract the effect of climate change on fire behaviour and impacts.
      PubDate: 2022-07-11
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03399-8
  • Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of
           experts from different scientific disciplines

    • Abstract: Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead
      Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.
      PubDate: 2022-07-04
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3
  • Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C
           above pre-industrial levels

    • Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.
      PubDate: 2022-06-29
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9
  • Russian climate scepticism: an understudied case

    • Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we consider climate scepticism in the Russian context. We are interested in whether this has been discussed within the social scientific literature and ask first whether there is a discernible climate sceptical discourse in Russia. We find that there is very little literature directly on this topic in either English or Russian and we seek to synthesise related literature to fill the gap. Secondly, we consider whether Russian climate scepticism has been shaped by the same factors as in the USA, exploring how scientists, the media, public opinion, the government and business shaped climate scepticism in Russia. Climate scepticism in the USA is understood as a ‘conservative countermovement’ that seeks to react against the perceived gains of the progressive environmental movement, but we argue that this is not an appropriate framework for understanding Russian climate scepticism. Articulated within a less agonistic environment and situated within an authoritarian regime, Russian expressions of climate scepticism balance the environmental, political and economic needs of the regime under the constraints of a strong ‘carbon culture’ and closed public debate.
      PubDate: 2022-06-28
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03390-3
  • Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts
           and implications for disaster risk management

    • Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the costliest natural hazards for southwest Pacific (SWP) Island nations. Extreme winds coupled with heavy rainfall and related coastal hazards, such as large waves and high seas, can have devastating consequences for life and property. Effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to make TCs even more destructive in the SWP (as that observed particularly over Fiji) and elsewhere around the globe, yet TCs may occur less often. However, the underpinning science of quantifying future TC projections amid multiple uncertainties can be complex. The challenge for scientists is how to turn such technical knowledge framed around uncertainties into tangible products to inform decision-making in the disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) sector. Drawing on experiences from past TC events as analogies to what may happen in a warming climate can be useful. The role of science-based climate services tailored to the needs of the DRM and DRR sector is critical in this context. In the first part of this paper, we examine cases of historically severe TCs in the SWP and quantify their socio-economic impacts. The second part of this paper discusses a decision-support framework developed in collaboration with a number of agencies in the SWP, featuring science-based climate services that inform different stages of planning in national-level risk management strategies.
      PubDate: 2022-06-23
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03391-2
  • Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into
           the unknown

    • Abstract: Abstract Many hydrological models use the concept of potential evapotranspiration (PE) to simulate actual evapotranspiration (AE). PE formulations often neglect the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2), which challenges their relevance in a context of climate change and rapid changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations. In this work, we implement three options from the literature to take into account the effect of CO2 on stomatal resistance in the well-known Penman–Monteith PE formulation. We assess their impact on future runoff using the Budyko framework over France. On the basis of an ensemble of Euro-Cordex climate projections using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, we show that taking into account CO2 in PE formulations largely reduces PE values but also limits projections of runoff decrease, especially under an emissive scenario, namely, the RCP 8.5, whereas the classic Penman–Monteith formulation yields decreasing runoff projections over most of France, taking into account CO2 yields more contrasting results. Runoff increase becomes likely in the north of France, which is an energy-limited area, with different levels of runoff response produced by the three tested formulations. The results highlight the sensitivity of hydrological projections to the processes represented in the PE formulation.
      PubDate: 2022-06-20
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03384-1
  • Correction to: Modelling the effects of climate change on the
           profitability of Australian farms

    • PubDate: 2022-06-08
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03380-5
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