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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 112 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted alphabetically
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 31)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 31)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 26)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 48)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 73)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 69)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 36)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 51)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Change and Adaptation in Socio-Ecological Systems     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25)
Climate Change Research Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access  
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 13)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Climate Summary of South Africa     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 66)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Developments in Atmospheric Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 28)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access  
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 22)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 198)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 81)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorological Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 134)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 37)
Nīvār     Open Access  
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia     Open Access  
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access  
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal  
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 22)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
The Cryosphere Discussions (TCD)     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Weather     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access  
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)

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Journal Cover
Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 66  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2656 journals]
  • Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence

    • Abstract: Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible.
      PubDate: 2021-05-06
  • Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change

    • Abstract: Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.
      PubDate: 2021-05-04
  • Projecting climate change impacts on Mediterranean finfish production: a
           case study in Greece

    • Abstract: Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.
      PubDate: 2021-04-29
  • Economic assessment of the development of CO 2 direct reduction
           technologies in long-term climate strategies of the Gulf countries

    • Abstract: This paper proposes an assessment of long-term climate strategies for oil- and gas-producing countries—in particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—as regards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase of surface air temperature to 2°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The study evaluates the possible role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies under an international emissions trading market as a way to mitigate welfare losses. To model the strategic context, one assumes that a global cumulative emissions budget will have been allocated among different coalitions of countries—the GCC being one of them—and the existence of an international emissions trading market. A meta-game model is proposed in which deployment of CDR technologies as well as supply of emission rights are strategic variables and the payoffs are obtained from simulations of a general equilibrium model. The results of the simulations indicate that oil and gas producing countries and especially the GCC countries face a significant welfare loss risk, due to “unburnable oil” if a worldwide climate regime as recommended by the Paris Agreement is put in place. The development of CDR technologies, in particular direct air capture (DAC) alleviates somewhat this risk and offers these countries a new opportunity for exploiting their gas reserves and the carbon storage capacity offered by depleted oil and gas reservoirs.
      PubDate: 2021-04-25
  • When rebuilding no longer means recovery: the stress of staying put after
           Hurricane Sandy

    • Abstract: After a disaster, it is common to equate repopulation and rebuilding with recovery. Numerous studies link post-disaster relocation to adverse social, economic, and health outcomes. However, there is a need to reconsider these relationships in light of accelerating climate change and associated social and policy shifts in the USA, including the rising cost of flood insurance, the challenge of obtaining aid to rebuild, and growing interest in “managed retreat” from places at greatest risk. This article presents data from a survey of individuals who opted either to rebuild in place or relocate with the help of a voluntary home buyout after Hurricane Sandy. Findings show those who lived in buyout-eligible areas and relocated were significantly less likely to report worsened stress than those who rebuilt in place. This suggests access to a government-supported voluntary relocation option may, under certain circumstances, lessen the negative mental health consequences associated with disaster-related housing damage.
      PubDate: 2021-04-23
  • Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation
           measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

    • Abstract: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.
      PubDate: 2021-04-23
  • Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change

    • Abstract: Annual maximum lake surface temperature influences ecosystem structure and function and, in particular, the rates of metabolic activities, species survival and biogeography. Here, we evaluated 50 years of observational data, from 1966 to 2015, for ten European lakes to quantify changes in the annual maximum surface temperature and the duration above a potentially critical temperature of 20 °C. Our results show that annual maximum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of +0.58 °C decade−1 (95% confidence interval 0.18), which is similar to the observed increase in annual maximum air temperature of +0.42 °C decade−1 (95% confidence interval 0.28) over the same period. Increments in lake maximum temperature among the ten lakes range from +0.1 in the west to +1.9 °C decade−1 in the east. Absolute maximum lake surface water temperatures were reached in Wörthersee, 27.5 °C, and Neusiedler See, 31.7 °C. Periods exceeding a critical temperature of 20 °C each year became two to six times longer than the respective average (6 to 93). The depth at which water temperature exceeded 20 °C increased from less than 1 to more than 6 m in Mondsee, Austria, over the 50 years studied. As a consequence, the habitable environment became increasingly restricted for many organisms that are adapted to historic conditions.
      PubDate: 2021-04-22
  • Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high

    • Abstract: Standards of proof for attributing real world events/damage to global warming should be the same as in clinical or environmental lawsuits, argue Lloyd et al. The central question that we raise is effective communication. How can climate scientists best and effectively communicate their findings to crucial non-expert audiences, including public policy makers and civil society' To address this question, we look at the mismatch between what courts require and what climate scientists are setting as a bar of proof. Our first point is that scientists typically demand too much of themselves in terms of evidence, in comparison with the level of evidence required in a legal, regulatory, or public policy context. Our second point is to recommend that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommend more prominently the use of the category “more likely than not” as a level of proof in their reports, as this corresponds to the standard of proof most frequently required in civil court rooms. This has also implications for public policy and the public communication of climate evidence.
      PubDate: 2021-04-19
  • Do fires discriminate' Socio-economic disadvantage, wildfire hazard
           exposure and the Australian 2019–20 ‘Black Summer’ fires

    • Abstract: We examine the relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and exposure to environmental hazard with data from the catastrophic 2019–2020 Australian wildfires (Black Summer) that burnt at least 19 million hectares, thousands of buildings and was responsible for the deaths of 34 people and more than one billion animals. Combining data from the National Indicative Aggregated Fire Extent (NIAFE) and 2016 Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), we estimate the correlation between wildfire hazard exposure and an index of community-level socio-economic disadvantage. Wildfire hazard exposure is measured as the interaction between the percentage of area burnt and proximity of the fire to settlements. The results reveal a significant positive relationship between fire hazard exposure and socio-economic disadvantage, such that the most socio-economically disadvantaged communities bore a disproportionately higher hazard exposure in the Black Summer than relatively advantaged communities. Our spatial analysis shows that the socio-economic disadvantage and wildfire hazard exposure relationship exists in inner regional, outer regional and remote areas of New South Wales and Victoria, the two worst-hit states of the Black Summer catastrophe. Our spatial analysis also finds that wildfire hazard exposure, even within a small geographical area, vary substantially depending on the socio-economic profiles of communities. A possible explanation for our findings is resource gaps for fire suppression and hazard reduction that favour communities with a greater level of socio-economic advantage.
      PubDate: 2021-04-19
  • Past and future snowmelt trends in the Swiss Alps: the role of temperature
           and snowpack

    • Abstract: The start of the growing season for alpine plants is primarily determined by the date of snowmelt. We analysed time series of snow depth at 23 manually operated and 15 automatic (IMIS) stations between 1055 and 2555 m asl in the Swiss Central Alps. Between 1958 and 2019, snowmelt dates occurred 2.8 ± 1.3 days earlier in the year per decade, with a strong shift towards earlier snowmelt dates during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but non-significant trends thereafter. Snowmelt dates at high-elevation automatic stations strongly correlated with snowmelt dates at lower-elevation manual stations. At all elevations, snowmelt dates strongly depended on spring air temperatures. More specifically, 44% of the variance in snowmelt dates was explained by the first day when a three-week running mean of daily air temperatures passed a 5 °C threshold. The mean winter snow depth accounted for 30% of the variance. We adopted the effects of air temperature and snowpack height to Swiss climate change scenarios to explore likely snowmelt trends throughout the twenty-first century. Under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), we simulated snowmelt dates to advance by 6 days per decade by the end of the century. By then, snowmelt dates could occur one month earlier than during the reference periods (1990–2019 and 2000–2019). Such early snowmelt may extend the alpine growing season by one third of its current duration while exposing alpine plants to shorter daylengths and adding a higher risk of freezing damage.
      PubDate: 2021-04-09
  • The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK

    • Abstract: The effect of climate change on agriculture in the UK is here assessed using a comprehensive series of policy-relevant agro-climate indicators characterising changes to climate resources and hazards affecting productivity and operations. This paper presents projections of these indicators across the UK with gridded observed data and UKCP18 climate projections representing a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The projections can be used to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. There will be substantial changes in the climate resource and hazard across the UK during the twenty-first century if emissions continue to follow a high trajectory, and there will still be some changes if emissions reduce to achieve international climate policy targets. Growing seasons for certain crops will lengthen, crop growth will be accelerated, and both drought and heat risks (for some types of production) will increase. Soils will become drier in autumn, although there will be less change in winter and spring. The longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures provide opportunities for new crops, subject to the effects of increasing challenges to production. Most of the changes are relatively consistent across the UK, although drought risk and heat stress risk increase most rapidly in the south and east. The climate change trend is superimposed onto considerable year to year variability. Although there is strong consensus across climate projections on the direction of change, there is considerable uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of change for a given emissions scenario. For the temperature-based indicators, this reflects uncertainty in climate sensitivity, whilst for the precipitation-based indicators largely reflects uncertainty in projected changes in the weather systems affecting the UK.
      PubDate: 2021-03-31
  • New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform
           urban planning—case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany

    • Abstract: Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.
      PubDate: 2021-03-29
  • ‘Seeing with Empty Eyes’: a systems approach to understand climate
           change and mental health in Bangladesh

    • Abstract: Bangladesh’s unique climate vulnerability is well-investigated but the mental health impacts of climate change remain relatively unexplored. Three databases were searched for English primary qualitative studies published between 2000 and 2020. Out of 1202 publications, 40 met the inclusion criteria. This systematic review applies a systems approach to further understand Bangladesh’s ‘climate-wellbeing’ network. The literature indicates diverse factors linking environmental stress and mental ill-health including four key themes: (1) post-hazard mental health risks, (2) human (im)mobility, (3) social tension and conflict, and (4) livelihood loss and economic hardship. This systems analysis also revealed that people’s mental wellbeing is strongly mediated by socio-economic status and gender. The article illustrates how multiple pathways may amplify stress, anxiety, violence, and psychological damage. Greater recognition of the ‘climate-wellbeing’ connections, and incorporation of mental health in current climate action and policy frameworks, will be an effective way to achieve a more sustainable future.
      PubDate: 2021-03-25
  • Land-grant lessons for Anthropocene universities

    • Abstract: Established amidst the bloodshed of the Civil War, land-grant universities, together with the associated agricultural experiment stations and cooperative extension services, have played a crucial role in democratizing scientific knowledge and addressing intertwined educational, environmental, economic, and democratic challenges within the USA. Indeed, they have arguably pioneered the idea of “usable science.” Today, the urgent challenges of the Anthropocene demand a more robust relationship between scientific research and on-the-ground action, strong networks sharing local lessons globally, and channels for injecting global, long-term perspectives into the noise of short-termism. The land-grant experience provides lessons for “Anthropocene universities” seeking to tackle these challenges, including the importance of (1) establishing or expanding university-based boundary organizations akin to cooperative extension, (2) incentivizing the integration of engagement into the university’s research, teaching, and service missions, (3) centering values of democracy, justice, equity, and inclusion in engagement, and (4) cooperating across institutions and sectors. Given the urgency of fully engaging academic institutions as players and connectors in the real-world challenges of addressing climate change and biodiversity loss, there is little time to waste.
      PubDate: 2021-03-23
  • Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano’s miracle and climate change in
           Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity

    • Abstract: Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of “water miracles” in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the “Fall of the Roman Empire”. Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it.
      PubDate: 2021-03-20
  • A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis

    • Abstract: Characterizing the future risks of climate change is a key goal of climate impacts analysis. Temperature binning provides a framework for analyzing sector-specific impacts by degree of warming as an alternative or complement to traditional scenario-based approaches in order to improve communication of results, comparability between studies, and flexibility to facilitate scenario analysis. In this study, we estimate damages for nine climate impact sectors within the contiguous United States (US) using downscaled climate projections from six global climate models, at integer degrees of US national warming. Each sector is analyzed based on socioeconomic conditions for both the beginning and the end of the century. The potential for adaptive measures to decrease damages is also demonstrated for select sectors; differences in damages across adaptation response scenarios within some sectors can be as much as an order of magnitude. Estimated national damages from these sectors based on a reactive adaptation assumption and 2010 socioeconomic conditions range from $600 million annually per degree of national warming for winter recreation to $8 billion annually per degree of national warming for labor impacts. Results are also estimated per degree of global temperature change and for 2090 socioeconomic conditions.
      PubDate: 2021-03-19
  • Exploring cross-national public support for the use of enhanced weathering
           as a land-based carbon dioxide removal strategy

    • Abstract: This study explores how public attitudes across three countries influence support towards terrestrial enhanced weathering, whereby silicate minerals are applied to agricultural land to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. An online survey was administered in Australia (N = 1000), the UK (N = 1000), and the USA (N = 1026) where there are ongoing field trials of this technique. Findings are similar across all three countries with many participants unfamiliar with enhanced weathering and unsure about supporting the use of enhanced weathering. Results show that positive affect is the main predictor for support of this technique, along with perceived benefits and level of concern about climate change. Open-ended questions asking why respondents would or would not support the use of enhanced weathering elicit mainly affective concepts, with enhanced weathering seen by individual respondents as either something mainly positive or mainly negative, with others saying it sounds risky and/or would have impacts on the environment. The way in which enhanced weathering is communicated is likely to influence support of the use of this strategy so must be undertaken carefully. Overall, our findings show that it is imperative to continue to engage the public, thereby allowing their views to be incorporated as enhanced weathering technology develops over time.
      PubDate: 2021-03-19
  • Historical floods of the Douro River in Porto, Portugal (1727–1799)

    • Abstract: Extreme meteorological events have had devastating consequences all over the world throughout the ages. In this study, we look into the floods at the mouth of the Douro River (Porto, Portugal) in the eighteenth century to expand the data series of floods in Northern Portugal. Information was gathered mostly from documentary narrative sources, either individual or institutional (administrative and ecclesiastic), some of which include reports of Pro Serenitate ceremonies. A study by the priest Rebelo Costa (1789) and the memories of the merchant Ignacio Henckell from 1717 to 1800 stand out among the individual sources. We concluded that there was great interannual variability in the occurrence of the 54 recorded floods, the highest number of which occurred in the 1780s. The “catastrophic” floods were recorded in 1727, 1739, 1769, 1774, 1777, 1788 and 1798, four of which are studied in detail in this paper. The greatest number of flood events took place in winter and autumn, and most of them lasted between 1 and 3 days. An analysis of the description of the floods, their impacts and the associated meteorological causes was carried out. In most cases, the frontal activity associated with Atlantic cyclonic systems was the cause of positive precipitation anomalies in NW Iberia. The great variability in heavy precipitation was confirmed by the new data. However, hardly any temporal simultaneity was found with other case studies in Southern Europe, except for Spain, especially several localities of Galicia and the mid Douro Valley (Zamora).
      PubDate: 2021-03-15
  • Closed-loop and congestion control of the global carbon-climate system

    • Abstract: The global carbon-climate system is a complex dynamical system with multiple feedbacks among components, and to steer this system away from dangerous climate change, it may not be enough to prescribe action according to long-term scenarios of fossil fuel emissions. We introduce here concepts from control theory, a branch of applied mathematics that is effective at steering complex dynamical systems to desired states, and distinguish between open- and closed-loop control. We attempt (1) to show that current scientific work on carbon-climate feedbacks and climate policy more closely resembles the conceptual model of open- than closed-loop control, (2) to introduce a mathematical generalization of the carbon-climate system as a compartmental dynamical system that can facilitate the formal treatment of the closed-loop control problem, and (3) to formulate carbon-climate control as a congestion control problem, discussing important concepts such as observability and controllability. We also show that most previous discussions on climate change mitigation and policy development have relied on an implicit assumption of open-loop control that does not consider frequent corrections due to deviations of goals from observations. Using a reduced complexity model, we illustrate that the problem of managing the global carbon cycle can be abstracted as a network congestion problem, accounting for nonlinear behavior and feedback from a global carbon monitoring system. As opposed to scenarios, the goal of closed-loop control is to develop rules for continuously steering the global carbon-climate system away from dangerous climate change.
      PubDate: 2021-03-11
  • Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

    • Abstract: Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.
      PubDate: 2021-03-08
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
Email: journaltocs@hw.ac.uk
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