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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 113 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted alphabetically
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 28)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 34)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 13)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 48)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 75)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 71)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 40)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 51)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 18)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access  
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 51)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 68)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Developments in Atmospheric Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 31)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access  
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 18)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 23)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 36)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 211)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 57)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 36)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 17)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 28)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 84)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorological Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 144)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 39)
Nīvār     Open Access  
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia     Open Access  
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access  
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal  
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 22)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access  
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Weather     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access  
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)

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Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 68  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2658 journals]
  • How local communities attribute livelihood vulnerabilities to climate
           change and other causes: a case study in North Vanuatu

    • Abstract: Understanding the causal factors of livelihood challenges and associated vulnerabilities is essential for developing viable adaptation strategies. However, clarifying which livelihood challenges can be attributed to which causal factors remains a challenge. In this paper, we used a case study in Vanuatu to show how local populations attribute subsistence challenges to underlying causes. Particularly, we are interested in whether there is a tendency to view climate change as the primary cause, and if so, why. We followed a participatory approach involving local community members and experts at all stages of the study process. For this, we used complementary research methods such as resource mapping, participant observation, and in-depth interviews with local community members and local agriculture experts. The results show that local populations are indeed inclined to attribute problems to external causes, particularly climate change. However, the results also indicate that this external attribution is not definitive. Rather, we find that over the course of participatory reflection, attribution to climate change was supplemented and even replaced by internal causal factors, such as changes in garden practices. Our findings suggest that the initial emphasis on climate change may be related to prevailing narratives that may have influenced individual perceptions of the study participants and created social desirability. If such bias is not recognized, the narratives risk being reified, with potential new insights being overlooked. As a result, local attribution may overstate or understate specific causes, such as climate change.
      PubDate: 2021-10-17
  • Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central
           American drought

    • Abstract: The recent multi-year 2015–2019 drought after a multi-decadal drying trend over Central America raises the question of whether anthropogenic climate change (ACC) played a role in exacerbating these events. While the occurrence of the 2015–2019 drought in Central America has been asserted to be associated with ACC, we lack an assessment of natural vs anthropogenic contributions. Here, we use five different large ensembles—including high-resolution ensembles (i.e., 0.5∘ horizontally)—to estimate the contribution of ACC to the probability of occurrence of the 2015–2019 event and the recent multi-decadal trend. The comparison of ensembles forced with natural and natural plus anthropogenic forcing suggests that the recent 40-year trend is likely associated with internal climate variability. However, the 2015–2019 rainfall deficit has been made more likely by ACC. The synthesis of the results from model ensembles supports the notion of a significant increase, by a factor of four, over the last century for the 2015–2019 meteorological drought to occur because of ACC. All the model results further suggest that, under intermediate and high emission scenarios, the likelihood of similar drought events will continue to increase substantially over the next decades.
      PubDate: 2021-10-15
  • Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2

    • Abstract: Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics. Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development.
      PubDate: 2021-10-11
  • Rainfall variability in southeast and west-central Africa during the
           Little Ice Age: do documentary and proxy records agree'

    • Abstract: Understanding of long-term climatic change prior to instrumental records necessitates reconstructions from documentary and palaeoclimate archives. In southern Africa, documentary-derived chronologies of nineteenth century rainfall variability and palaeoclimate records have permitted new insights into rainfall variability over past centuries. Rarely considered, however, is the climatic information within early colonial documentary records that emerge from the late fifteenth century onwards. This paper examines evidence for (multi-)seasonal dry and wet events within these earlier written records (c. 1550–1830 CE) from southeast Africa (Mozambique) and west-central Africa (Angola) in conjunction with palaeoclimate records from multiple proxies. Specifically, it aims to understand whether these sources agree in their signals of rainfall variability over a 280-year period covering the ‘main phase’ Little Ice Age (LIA) in southern Africa. The two source types generally, but do not always, show agreement within the two regions. This appears to reflect both the nature of rainfall variability and the context behind documentary recording. Both source types indicate that southeast and west-central Africa were distinct regions of rainfall variability over seasonal and longer timescales during the LIA, with southeast Africa being generally drier and west-central Africa generally wetter. However, the documentary records reveal considerable variability within these mean state climatic conditions, with multi-year droughts a recurrent feature in both regions. An analysis of long-term rainfall links with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in southeast Africa suggests a complex and possibly non-stationary relationship. Overall, early colonial records provide valuable information for constraining hydroclimate variability where palaeoclimate records remain sparse.
      PubDate: 2021-09-30
  • Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming systems in
           Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model assessment

    • Abstract: Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.
      PubDate: 2021-09-25
  • Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in
           western Nepal

    • Abstract: Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.
      PubDate: 2021-09-19
  • Are citizen juries and assemblies on climate change driving democratic
           climate policymaking' An exploration of two case studies in the UK

    • Abstract: In light of increasing pressure to deliver climate action targets and the growing role of citizens in raising the importance of the issue, deliberative democratic processes (e.g. citizen juries and citizen assemblies) on climate change are increasingly being used to provide a voice to citizens in climate change decision-making. Through a comparative case study of two processes that ran in the UK in 2019 (the Leeds Climate Change Citizens’ Jury and the Oxford Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change), this paper investigates how far citizen assemblies and juries are increasing citizen engagement on climate change and creating more citizen-centred climate policymaking. Interviews were conducted with policymakers, councillors, professional facilitators and others involved in running these processes to assess motivations for conducting these, their structure and the impact and influence they had. The findings suggest the impact of these processes is not uniform: they have an indirect impact on policy making by creating momentum around climate action and supporting the introduction of pre-planned or pre-existing policies rather than a direct impact by truly being citizen-centred policy making processes or conducive to new climate policy. We conclude with reflections on how these processes give elected representatives a public mandate on climate change, that they help to identify more nuanced and in-depth public opinions in a fair and informed way, yet it can be challenging to embed citizen juries and assemblies in wider democratic processes.
      PubDate: 2021-09-16
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03218-6
  • An IPCC that listens: introducing reciprocity to climate change

    • Abstract: As the epistemic hand in the UNFCCC’S political glove, the IPCC is charged with furnishing the global dialogues with ‘reliable knowledge’ on climate change. Much has been written about how this body of scientific information can be communicated more effectively to a diverse public, but considerably less so on the role communication might play in making the IPCC itself more receptive to alternative forms of contribution. Climate change communication remains centred on a unidirectional model that has helped climate science achieve greater public legibility, but so far not explored equivalent channels within institutional thinking for representing public and other non-scientific knowledges. Anticipating a new assessment report and major developments for the Paris Agreement, now is an opportunity to consider ambitious pathways to reciprocity in the IPCC’s communication strategy. Drawing on interdisciplinary insights from social science literatures, we argue that communication is not only inseparable from knowledge politics in the IPCC, but that communication activities and research may prove key avenues for making the IPCC more inclusive. Recognising climate communication as a developed field of study and practice with significant influence in the IPCC, we present a framework for categorising communicative activities into those which help the panel speak with a more human voice, and those that help it listen receptively to alternative forms of knowledge. The latter category especially invites communicators to decouple ‘epistemic authority’ from ‘scientific authority’, and so imagine new forms of expert contribution. This is critical to enabling active and equitable dialogue with underrepresented publics that democratises climate governance, and enhances the public legitimacy of the IPCC.
      PubDate: 2021-09-07
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03186-x
  • Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information:
           the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

    • Abstract: In this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions.
      PubDate: 2021-09-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03187-w
  • Controversy around climate change reports: a case study of Twitter
           responses to the 2019 IPCC report on land

    • Abstract: In August 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), which generated extensive societal debate and interest in mainstream and social media. Using computational and conceptual text analysis, we examined more than 6,000 English-language posts on Twitter to establish the relative presence of different topics. Then, we assessed their levels of toxicity and sentiment polarity as an indication of contention and controversy. We find first that meat consumption and dietary options became one of the most discussed issues on Twitter in response to the IPCC report, even though it was a relatively minor element of the report; second, this new issue of controversy (meat and diet) had similar, high levels of toxicity to strongly contentious issues in previous IPCC reports (skepticism about climate science and the credibility of the IPCC). We suggest that this is in part a reflection of increasingly polarized narratives about meat and diet found in other areas of public discussion and of a movement away from criticism of climate science towards criticism of climate solutions. Finally, we discuss the possible implications of these findings for the work of the IPCC in anticipating responses to its reports and responding to them effectively.
      PubDate: 2021-08-31
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03182-1
  • Public perception and acceptance of negative emission technologies –
           framing effects in Switzerland

    • Abstract: Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires negative emission technologies (NETs), which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and permanently store it to offset unavoidable emissions. Successful large-scale deployment of NETs depends not only on technical, biophysical, ecological, and economic factors, but also on public perception and acceptance. However, previous studies on this topic have been scarce. In 2019, Switzerland adopted a net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 target, which will require the use of NETs. To examine the current Swiss public perception and acceptance of five different NETs, we conducted an online survey with Swiss citizens (N = 693). By using a between-subjects design, we investigated differences in public opinion, perception, and acceptance across three of the most used frames in the scientific literature — technological fix, moral hazard, and climate emergency. Results showed that the public perception and acceptance of NETs does not differ between the frames. The technological fix frame best reflected participants’ opinion, whereas participants perceived the moral hazard frame the least credible and the climate emergency frame the most unclear. Moreover, our findings confirm the public’s unfamiliarity with NETs. We found no strong opposition, as participants indicated a moderate acceptance and a neutral evaluation of all five NETs, with afforestation standing out as the most accepted and positively evaluated NET. We conclude that, in the future, the public debate on NETs should be intensified, and the public perception should be monitored regularly to inform the development of NETs.
      PubDate: 2021-08-26
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03150-9
  • Mobilizing private adaptation finance: lessons learned from the Green
           Climate Fund

    • Abstract: The mobilization of effective private sector engagement is considered to be critical to address the adaptation challenge, but literature demonstrates that it has proven difficult. In the context of international climate finance, the focus has been on mobilizing private finance for adaptation and in addressing barriers that prevent investments from materializing. In contrast, this article identifies options to engage the private sector in adaptation beyond finance and focuses on market imperfections instead of barriers. This moves the focus away from simply mobilizing more private adaptation finance towards identifying market forces that innovate, engage, and direct investments towards adaptation. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) and its portfolio of 74 adaptation projects serve as a case study. Two of these projects are categorized as private sector projects and an additional nine mobilize private co-finance or non-financial private contributions. Beyond these two indicators, we demonstrate that an additional 60 projects engage the private sector in other ways, thus indicating the important broader role of the private sector in adaptation. Furthermore, our ordinal regression demonstrates that by addressing the market imperfections of positive externalities, imperfect financial markets, and incomplete and/or asymmetric information, all have a significant positive effect on private sector engagement in the GCF’s adaptation portfolio. Both findings indicate that there is a large potential for the GCF—and other climate finance providers—to increase private sector engagement in adaptation. It must be noted, however, that the mobilization of private sector engagement in adaptation is a means to an end, not an end in itself. The main aim should be to adapt society as a whole in an efficient manner, including the most vulnerable groups and people.
      PubDate: 2021-08-20
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03190-1
  • Collective action problems and governance barriers to sea-level rise
           adaptation in San Francisco Bay

    • Abstract: This paper translates Ostrom’s “diagnostic approach” for social-ecological systems to identify the collective action problems and core governance barriers for sea-level rise adaptation in the San Francisco Bay Area. The diagnostic approach considers variables related to the resource system, the resource units, the users, and the governance system. Coupled ecological-infrastructure models identify two core collective action problems: vulnerability interdependency and adaptation interdependency. Qualitative social science case study methods identify the key structural governance and behavioral barriers to cooperation and ongoing activities to address them. The diagnostic approach is potentially applicable to any coastal regions that are vulnerable to sea-level rise and also other climate adaptation issues where vulnerability and adaptation interdependencies require overcoming governance challenges to collective action.
      PubDate: 2021-08-20
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03162-5
  • Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for
           rail, roads, and coastal development

    • Abstract: Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the USA. Using models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation; Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation. Comparing damages under each of these potential responses provides strong support for facilitating effective adaptation in these three sectors. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and without adaptation, overall costs are projected to range in the $100s of billions annually by the end of this century. The first (reactive) tier of adaptation action, however, reduces costs by a factor of 10, and the second (proactive) tier reduces total costs across all three sectors to the low $10s of billions annually. For the rail and road sectors, estimated costs for Reactive and Proactive Adaptation scenarios capture a broader share of potential impacts, including selected indirect costs to rail and road users, and so are consistently about a factor of 2 higher than prior estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering climate risks in infrastructure planning and management.
      PubDate: 2021-08-19
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w
  • Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under
           conventional and optimized crop management

    • Abstract: Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management are currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed climate change impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for the near future (2035-2066) and far future (2065-2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971-2001). The surface temperature and warm days (above 30 °C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions, whereas the number of wet days declines everywhere, shortening the growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress, while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water-limited and water- and nutrient-limited maize yields varied from 15 to 20% in the near future and from 20 to 40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize variety selection can counteract these impacts by 6-29%. The existing gaps between water-limited and nutrient-limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to boost maize production in Zambia.
      PubDate: 2021-08-16
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03191-0
  • Preparing the playing field: climate club governance of the G20, Climate
           and Clean Air Coalition, and Under2 Coalition

    • Abstract: International climate policy is increasingly shaped by alternative forms of governance. Coalitions of national, subnational, and/or non-state actors have the potential to address the global challenge of climate change beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. While initially such “clubs” spurred hope that they could be an option to achieve climate action more effectively than the UNFCCC, more recently, their role has been seen as preparing and orchestrating climate policy. In spite of its conceptual proliferation, literature on climate clubs stops short in examining practical evidence and conducting analyses beyond categorization and labelling of climate clubs. This article aims at contributing to filling this gap with a comparative perspective on three specific governance initiatives that act on different governance levels: the G20, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), and the Under2 Coalition. What contribution do these club-like initiatives make to global climate governance and how does it relate to existing structures such as the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC process' Our paper applies central aspects of clubs research, namely, membership, public goods, and the provision of additional benefits as an analytical framework to examine the three cases. We find that these club initiatives, though highly diverse in their origin and membership, make a similar contribution to international climate governance. Their largest contribution lies in preparing emissions reductions through raising awareness, orchestrating different actors and actions, and establishing a large cooperation network. They complement the UNFCCC and especially the Paris Agreement.
      PubDate: 2021-08-16
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03189-8
  • Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term
           resource planning

    • Abstract: Scenario planning has emerged as a widely used planning process for resource management in situations of consequential, irreducible uncertainty. Because it explicitly incorporates uncertainty, scenario planning is regularly employed in climate change adaptation. An early and essential step in developing scenarios is identifying “climate futures”—descriptions of the physical attributes of plausible future climates that could occur at a specific place and time. Divergent climate futures that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions support information needs of decision makers, including understanding the spectrum of potential resource responses to climate change, developing strategies robust to that range, avoiding highly consequential surprises, and averting maladaptation. Here, we discuss three approaches for generating climate futures: a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-ensemble, a quadrant-average, and an individual-projection approach. All are designed to capture relevant uncertainty, but they differ in utility for different applications, complexity, and effort required to implement. Using an application from Big Bend National Park as an example of numerous similar efforts to develop climate futures for National Park Service applications over the past decade, we compare these approaches, focusing on their ability to capture among-projection divergence during early-, mid-, and late-twenty-first century periods to align with near-, mid-, and long-term planning efforts. The quadrant-average approach and especially the individual-projection approach captured a broader range of plausible future conditions than the RCP-ensemble approach, particularly in the near term. Therefore, the individual-projection approach supports decision makers seeking to understand the broadest potential characterization of future conditions. We discuss tradeoffs associated with different climate future approaches and highlight suitable applications.
      PubDate: 2021-08-13
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03169-y
  • Correction to: Ranking local climate policy: assessing the mitigation and
           adaptation activities of 104 German cities

    • Abstract: A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03184-z
      PubDate: 2021-08-12
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03184-z
  • Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary

    • Abstract: In the race towards economic growth, increased pollutant emissions have spurred the rise in global surface temperatures, intensifying the process of climate change. While the existing literature on the economic impact of climate-related variables has looked at outcomes such as growth, income, fiscal response, and poverty, the effect of temperature shocks on inflation has largely been neglected. This paper is an attempt to fill this lacuna. Indeed, we analyze the dynamic impact of temperature shocks on inflation, a key policy variable of most central banks. We use a panel-VAR method with fixed-effects and a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1961–2014. Our results suggest that temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures. Worryingly, and for developing countries in particular, we find that these effects persist several years after the initial shock. Our finding remained unaltered by various robustness checks. We show that these effects pose a threat to monetary policy making. We argue that central banks should pay more attention to temperature shocks.
      PubDate: 2021-08-10
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03149-2
  • Threshold, budget and deadline: beyond the discourse of climate scarcity
           and control

    • Abstract: Since its inception, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has always been at the centre of the global climate debate. Its authoritative reports provide cultural resources for public understanding on the challenge of climate change. While the IPCC maintains its perception as a policy-neutral adviser, the IPCC in practice acts as a powerful discursive agent that guides policy debates in a certain direction by enacting influential scientific concepts. These concepts include three prominent metaphors—temperature threshold, carbon budget and climate deadline—that have been widely circulated across science, policy and advocacy. Three metaphors differ on ways in which the risk of climate change is expressed in terms of space and time. But they all constitute the discourse of climate scarcity—the cognitive view of that we have (too) little space and time to stay below a physical limit for avoiding dangerous climate change. This discursive construction of physical scarcity on climate change has significant political and psychological implications. Politically, the scarcity discourse has the risk of increasing a post-political tendency towards managerial control of the global climate (‘scarcity of politics’). Psychologically, however, scarcity has a greater risk of generating a ‘scarcity mindset’ that inhibits our cognitive capacity to imagine human life beyond managing physical scarcity. Under a narrow mindset of scarcity, the future is closed down to the ‘point of no return’ that, if crossed, is destined to be the end. To go beyond the scarcity discourse, a new discourse of emancipation has to be fostered. Climate change can be reframed not as a common single destination but as a predicament for actively reimagining human life. Such a narrative can expand our imaginative capacity and animate political action while embracing social losses.
      PubDate: 2021-08-10
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03185-y
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