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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted alphabetically
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 60)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 42)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 33)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 13)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 43)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 73)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 40)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 63)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 50)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45)
Climate Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 53)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 26)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 71)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 25)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 41)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 158)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 56)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
Journal of Climate Change and Health     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Economic Literature     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 19)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 30)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 80)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorological Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 151)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 40)
Nīvār     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Oxford Open Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 27)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 18)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)

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Journal Cover
Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 71  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2469 journals]
  • Evaluating the distributional fairness of alternative adaptation policies:
           a case study in Vietnam’s upper Mekong Delta

    • Abstract: Abstract To support equitable adaptation planning, quantitative assessments should consider the fairness of the distribution of outcomes to different people. What constitutes a fair distribution, however, is a normative question. In this study, we explore the use of different moral principles drawn from theories of distributive justice to evaluate fairness. We use adaptation planning in Vietnam Mekong Delta as a case study. We evaluate the preference ranking of six alternative policies for seven moral principles across an ensemble of scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, each principle yields distinctive preference rankings, though most principles identify the same policy as the most preferred one. Across the ensemble of scenarios, the commonly used utilitarian principle yields the most stable ranking, while rankings from other principles are more sensitive to uncertainty. The sufficientarian and the envy-free principles yield the most distinctive ranking of policies, with a median ranking correlation of only 0.07 across all scenarios. Finally, we identify scenarios under which using these two principles results in reversed policy preference rankings. Our study highlights the importance of considering multiple moral principles in evaluating the fairness of adaptation policies, as this would reduce the possibility of maladaptation.
      PubDate: 2022-08-02
  • Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and
           nested convection-permitting model data

    • Abstract: Abstract Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on river flows is critically important for adaptation. Data from global or nested regional climate models (GCMs/RCMs) are frequently used to drive hydrological models, but now there are also very high-resolution convection-permitting models (CPMs). Here, data from the first CPM climate ensemble for the UK, along with the RCM ensemble within which the CPM is nested, are used to drive a grid-based hydrological model. The performance for simulating baseline (1981–2000) river flows is compared between the RCM and the CPM, and the projections of future changes in seasonal mean flows and peak flows are compared across Britain (1981–2000 to 2061–2080). The baseline performance assessment shows that (before bias correction) the CPM generally performs better than the RCM, and bias correction of precipitation makes both the RCM and CPM perform more similarly to use of observation-based driving data. The analysis of future changes in flows shows that the CPM almost always gives higher flow changes than the RCM. If reliable, these differences in flow projections suggest that adaptation planning for high flows based on use of regional data may be insufficient, although planning for low flows may be slightly over-cautious. However, the availability of CPM data only for one RCM/GCM is a limitation for use in adaptation as it under-samples the uncertainty range. There are significant challenges to the wider application of CPM ensembles, including the high computational and data storage demands.
      PubDate: 2022-07-19
  • Social norms explain prioritization of climate policy

    • Abstract: Abstract Most people in the United States recognize the reality of climate change and are concerned about its consequences, yet climate change is a low priority relative to other policy issues. Recognizing that belief in climate change does not necessarily translate to prioritizing climate policy, we examine psychological factors that may boost or inhibit prioritization. We hypothesized that perceived social norms from people’s own political party influence their climate policy prioritization beyond their personal belief in climate change. In Study 1, a large, diverse sample of Democratic and Republican participants (N = 887) reported their prioritization of climate policy relative to other issues. Participants’ perceptions of their political ingroup’s social norms about climate policy prioritization were the strongest predictor of personal climate policy prioritization—stronger even than participants’ belief in climate change, political orientation, environmental identity, and environmental values. Perceptions of political outgroup norms did not predict prioritization. In Study 2 (N = 217), we experimentally manipulated Democratic and Republican descriptive norms of climate policy prioritization. Participants’ prioritization of climate policy was highest when both the political ingroup and the outgroup prioritized climate policy. Ingroup norms had a strong influence on personal policy prioritization whereas outgroup norms did not. These findings demonstrate that, beyond personal beliefs and other individual differences, ingroup social norms shape the public’s prioritization of climate change as a policy issue.
      PubDate: 2022-07-18
  • At the intersection of mind and climate change: integrating inner
           dimensions of climate change into policymaking and practice

    • Abstract: Abstract Dominant policy approaches have failed to generate action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth needed to avert climate change and environmental disaster. In particular, they fail to address the need for a fundamental cultural transformation, which involves a collective shift in mindsets (values, beliefs, worldviews and associated inner human capacities). Whilst scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrative approaches, knowledge on how the link between our mind and the climate crisis can be best addressed in policy responses is still scarce. Our study addresses this gap. Based on a survey and in-depth interviews with high-level policymakers worldwide, we explore how they perceive the intersection of mind and climate change, how it is reflected in current policymaking and how it could be better considered to support transformation. Our findings show, on the one hand, that the mind is perceived as a victim of increasing climate impacts. On the other hand, it is considered a key driver of the crisis, and a barrier to action, to the detriment of both personal and planetary wellbeing. The resultant vicious cycle of mind and climate change is, however, not reflected in mainstream policymaking, which fails to generate more sustainable pathways. At the same time, there are important lessons from other fields (e.g. education, health, the workplace, policy mainstreaming) that provide insights into how to integrate aspects of mind into climate policies. Our results show that systematic integration into policymaking is a key for improving both climate resilience and climate responsiveness across individual, collective, organisational and system levels and indicate the inner human potential and capacities that support related change. We conclude with some policy recommendations and further research that is needed to move from a vicious to a virtuous cycle of mind and climate change that supports personal and planetary wellbeing.
      PubDate: 2022-07-15
  • National attribution of historical climate damages

    • Abstract: Abstract Quantifying which nations are culpable for the economic impacts of anthropogenic warming is central to informing climate litigation and restitution claims for climate damages. However, for countries seeking legal redress, the magnitude of economic losses from warming attributable to individual emitters is not known, undermining their standing for climate liability claims. Uncertainties compound at each step from emissions to global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, GHG concentrations to global temperature changes, global temperature changes to country-level temperature changes, and country-level temperature changes to economic losses, providing emitters with plausible deniability for damage claims. Here we lift that veil of deniability, combining historical data with climate models of varying complexity in an integrated framework to quantify each nation’s culpability for historical temperature-driven income changes in every other country. We find that the top five emitters (the United States, China, Russia, Brazil, and India) have collectively caused US$6 trillion in income losses from warming since 1990, comparable to 14% of annual global gross domestic product; many other countries are responsible for billions in losses. Yet the distribution of warming impacts from emitters is highly unequal: high-income, high-emitting countries have benefited themselves while harming low-income, low-emitting countries, emphasizing the inequities embedded in the causes and consequences of historical warming. By linking individual emitters to country-level income losses from warming, our results provide critical insight into climate liability and national accountability for climate policy.
      PubDate: 2022-07-12
  • Unravelling the effect of climate change on fire danger and fire behaviour
           in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)

    • Abstract: Abstract The impacts of wildfires are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin due to more extreme fire seasons featuring increasingly fast and high-intensity fires, which often overwhelm the response capacity of fire suppression forces. Fire behaviour is expected to become even more severe due to climate change. In this study, we quantified the effect of climate change on fire danger (components of the Canadian FWI System) and wildfire behaviour characteristics (rate of spread and fireline intensity) for the four major Mediterranean forest ecosystems located in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The effect of climate change on wildfire behaviour was supplemented by taking into account net primary production (NPP), hence fuel load. Our results show that the meteorological fire season will start earlier and end later, leading to a significant increase in the number of days with weather conditions that promote high-intensity wildfires, for both climate scenarios. Fuel type shapes how wildfire spread characteristics will unfold. The most relevant changes are projected to occur in pine forests, where a wildfire with median fireline intensity will offer serious resistance to control from spring to autumn. The severity of fire behaviour in shrublands also increases substantially when considering climate change, with high-intensity wildfires potentially occurring in any time of the year. Both deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests are predicted to typically generate wildfires with low enough intensity to remain within suppression capability. By adjusting fuel load to future climate conditions, our results highlight that fireline intensity in deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests may not increase during summer, and can even be significantly reduced in shrublands. This study suggests that improved fire planning and management of wildfire-prone landscapes will counteract the effect of climate change on fire behaviour and impacts.
      PubDate: 2022-07-11
  • Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of
           experts from different scientific disciplines

    • Abstract: Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead
      Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.
      PubDate: 2022-07-04
  • Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C
           above pre-industrial levels

    • Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.
      PubDate: 2022-06-29
  • Russian climate scepticism: an understudied case

    • Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we consider climate scepticism in the Russian context. We are interested in whether this has been discussed within the social scientific literature and ask first whether there is a discernible climate sceptical discourse in Russia. We find that there is very little literature directly on this topic in either English or Russian and we seek to synthesise related literature to fill the gap. Secondly, we consider whether Russian climate scepticism has been shaped by the same factors as in the USA, exploring how scientists, the media, public opinion, the government and business shaped climate scepticism in Russia. Climate scepticism in the USA is understood as a ‘conservative countermovement’ that seeks to react against the perceived gains of the progressive environmental movement, but we argue that this is not an appropriate framework for understanding Russian climate scepticism. Articulated within a less agonistic environment and situated within an authoritarian regime, Russian expressions of climate scepticism balance the environmental, political and economic needs of the regime under the constraints of a strong ‘carbon culture’ and closed public debate.
      PubDate: 2022-06-28
  • Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts
           and implications for disaster risk management

    • Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the costliest natural hazards for southwest Pacific (SWP) Island nations. Extreme winds coupled with heavy rainfall and related coastal hazards, such as large waves and high seas, can have devastating consequences for life and property. Effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to make TCs even more destructive in the SWP (as that observed particularly over Fiji) and elsewhere around the globe, yet TCs may occur less often. However, the underpinning science of quantifying future TC projections amid multiple uncertainties can be complex. The challenge for scientists is how to turn such technical knowledge framed around uncertainties into tangible products to inform decision-making in the disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) sector. Drawing on experiences from past TC events as analogies to what may happen in a warming climate can be useful. The role of science-based climate services tailored to the needs of the DRM and DRR sector is critical in this context. In the first part of this paper, we examine cases of historically severe TCs in the SWP and quantify their socio-economic impacts. The second part of this paper discusses a decision-support framework developed in collaboration with a number of agencies in the SWP, featuring science-based climate services that inform different stages of planning in national-level risk management strategies.
      PubDate: 2022-06-23
  • Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into
           the unknown

    • Abstract: Abstract Many hydrological models use the concept of potential evapotranspiration (PE) to simulate actual evapotranspiration (AE). PE formulations often neglect the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2), which challenges their relevance in a context of climate change and rapid changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations. In this work, we implement three options from the literature to take into account the effect of CO2 on stomatal resistance in the well-known Penman–Monteith PE formulation. We assess their impact on future runoff using the Budyko framework over France. On the basis of an ensemble of Euro-Cordex climate projections using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, we show that taking into account CO2 in PE formulations largely reduces PE values but also limits projections of runoff decrease, especially under an emissive scenario, namely, the RCP 8.5, whereas the classic Penman–Monteith formulation yields decreasing runoff projections over most of France, taking into account CO2 yields more contrasting results. Runoff increase becomes likely in the north of France, which is an energy-limited area, with different levels of runoff response produced by the three tested formulations. The results highlight the sensitivity of hydrological projections to the processes represented in the PE formulation.
      PubDate: 2022-06-20
  • Correction to: Modelling the effects of climate change on the
           profitability of Australian farms

    • PubDate: 2022-06-08
  • Correction to: The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall
           events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

    • PubDate: 2022-06-03
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03379-y
  • Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using
           EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles

    • Abstract: Abstract We analyse the expected characteristics of drought events in northern Italy for baseline (1971–2000), near (2021–2050), and far (2071–2100) future conditions, estimating the drought spatial extent and duration, the percentage of affected area, and the frequency of drought episodes. To this end, daily ensembles of precipitation and temperature records from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) pairs, extracted from EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, are collected at spatial resolution of 0.11 degrees. Before the analysis, model outputs are validated on daily weather station time series, and scaling factors for possible use in bias correction are identified. Annual temperature and precipitation anomalies for near and far future conditions are investigated; drought events are identified by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index at the 12-, 24-, and 36-month timescales. This study highlights the importance of using multiple drought indicators in the detection of drought events, since the comparison reveals that evapotranspiration anomaly is the main triggering factor. For both scenarios, the results indicate an intensification of droughts in northern Italy for the period 2071–2100, with the Alpine chain being especially affected by an increase of drought severity. A North-to-South spatial gradient of drought duration is also observed.
      PubDate: 2022-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03370-7
  • Towards more effective visualisations in climate services: good practices
           and recommendations

    • Abstract: Abstract Visualisations are often the entry point to information that supports stakeholders’ decision- and policy-making processes. Visual displays can employ either static, dynamic or interactive formats as well as various types of representations and visual encodings, which differently affect the attention, recognition and working memory of users. Despite being well-suited for expert audiences, current climate data visualisations need to be further improved to make communication of climate information more inclusive for broader audiences, including people with disabilities. However, the lack of evidence-based guidelines and tools makes the creation of accessible visualisations challenging, potentially leading to misunderstanding and misuse of climate information by users. Taking stock of visualisation challenges identified in a workshop by climate service providers, we review good practices commonly applied by other visualisation-related disciplines strongly based on users’ needs that could be applied to the climate services context. We show how lessons learned in the fields of user experience, data visualisation, graphic design and psychology make useful recommendations for the development of more effective climate service visualisations. This includes applying a user-centred design approach, using interaction in a suitable way in visualisations, paying attention to information architecture or selecting the right type of representation and visual encoding. The recommendations proposed here can help climate service providers reduce users’ cognitive load and improve their overall experience when using a service. These recommendations can be useful for the development of the next generation of climate services, increasing their usability while ensuring that their visual components are inclusive and do not leave anyone behind.
      PubDate: 2022-05-28
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03365-4
  • Political leaders with professional background in business and climate

    • Abstract: Abstract The literature on how the ideology of political parties in power correlates with climate policy outcomes is abundant, but there is no similar literature for the individual characteristics of government leaders. This assessment is the first study of its kind, building on a dataset of government leaders of OECD countries for the period 1992–2017. We find that national presidents or prime ministers with a professional background in business are strongly correlated with bad climate mitigation outcomes. In particular, higher emissions and lower renewable energy deployment are more likely to occur during the tenure of former business people. Our results suggest that voters and pressure groups should pay attention to candidates’ professional backgrounds, in addition to their party’s ideology.
      PubDate: 2022-05-20
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03363-6
  • Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian

    • Abstract: Abstract Recent shifts in the Australian climate including both higher temperatures and lower winter rainfall have had significant effects on the agriculture sector. Despite these recent trends, there remains uncertainty over the future climate and its potential impacts on Australian farm businesses. In this study, a statistical model of Australian cropping and livestock farms is combined with downscaled temperature and rainfall projections for 2050, to simulate the effects of climate change on farm profits. These future projections are compared against both a historical reference climate (1950 to 2000) and recent conditions (2001 to 2020). The results provide an indication of ‘adaptation pressure’: showing which regions, sectors and farm types may be under greater pressure to adapt or adjust to climate change. Future scenarios produce a wide range of outcomes, with simulated change in average farm profits (without any long-run adaptation or technological advance) ranging from −2 to -32% under RCP4.5 and −11 to −50% under RCP8.5, compared with a decline of 22.3% under observed post-2000 conditions (all relative to 1950 to 2000 climate). In contrast with the recent observed changes, projections show relatively moderate effects in south-eastern Australia, but relatively stronger effects for livestock farms in northern Australia.
      PubDate: 2022-05-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03356-5
  • The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as
           the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

    • Abstract: Abstract Around October 12, 2019, torrential rainfall from Typhoon Hagibis caused large-scale flooding in a large area around the metropole region of Tokyo leading to large-scale destruction including losses of lives, livelihoods, and economic losses of well over $10 bn US dollars. In this paper we use a multi-method probabilistic event attribution framework to assess the role of human-induced climate change in the heavy rainfall event responsible for a large proportion of the damages. Combining different observational datasets and various climate model simulations, we find an increase in the likelihood of such an event to occur of 15–150%. We use this assessment and the calculated fraction of attributable risk (FAR) to further estimate the economic costs attributable to anthropogenic climate change based on the insured economic losses. Our conservative estimate is that ~$4bn of the damages due to the extreme heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Hagibis are due to human-induced climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-05-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03344-9
  • Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing

    • Abstract: Abstract Despite the growing demand for seasonal climate forecasts, there is limited understanding of the landscape of organisations providing this critically important climate information. This study attempts to fill this gap by presenting results from an in-depth dialogue with the organisations entrusted with the provision of seasonal forecasts by the World Meteorological Organisation, known as the Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF). The results provide an overview and detailed description of the organisational setup, mandate, target audience of GPCs-LRF and their interactions with other centres. Looking beyond the GPCs-LRF to other centres providing seasonal forecasts, some of which have been rapidly taking prominent places in this landscape, revealed a heterogeneous and still maturing community of practice, with an increasing number of players and emerging efforts to produce multi-model ensemble forecasts. The dialogues pointed at the need to not only improve climate models and produce more skilful climate forecasts, but also to improve the transformation of the forecasts into useful and usable products. Finally, using the lenses of credibility, salience and legitimacy, we explore ways to bridge the fragmentation of the information offered across the organisations considered and the people involved in the delivery and use of seasonal forecasts. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to address the boundary crossing between science, policy and society in the context of seasonal climate prediction.
      PubDate: 2022-05-13
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03350-x
  • Influences of atmospheric blocking on North American summer heatwaves in a
           changing climate: a comparison of two Canadian Earth system model large

    • Abstract: Abstract As summer heatwaves have severe adverse impacts on human society and ecosystems, there is need to better understand their meteorological drivers and future projections under climate change. This study investigates the linkage between atmospheric blocking and summer (June–August) heatwaves over North America using two reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim and NCEP-DOE-R2) and two large-ensembles of Canadian Earth System Models (CanESM2 and CanESM5) for the 1981–2010 baseline period as well as projected changes under high-emission scenarios out to 2071–2100. Compared to NCEP-DOE-R2, both ensembles underestimate summer blocking frequency in the north Pacific, Alaska, and western Canada (by − 37%), while CanESM2 ensemble also underestimates blocking frequency in central and eastern Canada (by − 36%). CanESM5 generally shows better performance than CanESM2 in its reproduction of blocking frequency over central and eastern Canada, which is consistent with its overall improvements in simulating large-scale climate patterns. The two ensembles, however, agree with the reanalyses in their blocking-heatwave linkages. Above-normal heatwave frequency occurs in the blocking core and its surroundings due to positive heat flux anomalies, while below-normal frequency occurs at remote locations on the eastern and/or southern flanks of the blocking core due to cold air temperature advection anomalies. Future projections in central Canada differ between the models, largely due to the significant under-representation of blocking frequency by CanESM2. However, the two ensembles generally project similar behavior between the baseline and future period for spatial distributions of blocking-heatwave linkages, indicating blocking will continue to play an important role in the development of summer heatwaves in the future.
      PubDate: 2022-05-05
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03358-3
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
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