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- Implementing climate literacy in schools — what to teach our
teachers'
Abstract: Abstract Climate literacy (CL) comprises knowledge, skills, and attitudes that enable individuals to counteract the global threat of anthropogenic climate change. Teachers’ knowledge and pedagogy are main predictors of students’ learning outcomes, but teachers are insufficiently prepared in the interdisciplinary field of CL. In a multilevel interrogation of experts in the fields of climate science, education research, and school, we derived 13 delineated themes describing necessary knowledge concerning the scientific background of climate change as well as pedagogy and teaching strategies. These themes indicate that teachers need a broad basis of understanding the climate system, climate science, causes of, impacts of, and dealing with climate change as well as the ability to convey this interdisciplinary content into teaching, by making the topic personally relevant and strengthening students’ role as change agents. The findings underline the need to promote interdisciplinary ways of teaching towards CL and provide a baseline for the development of future teacher preparation.
PubDate: 2023-09-26
- Perceptions of urban green infrastructures for climate change adaptation
in Lausanne, Switzerland: unveiling the role of biodiversity and planting
composition
Abstract: Abstract This interdisciplinary study addresses the gap in understanding the perceptions of individuals regarding the role of urban green infrastructures (UGIs) in climate change adaptation, particularly with respect to biodiversity and planting composition. While climate-responsive design strategies commonly focus on increasing permeable green spaces and canopy coverage, the explicit consideration of biodiversity remains limited. By introducing a novel analytical framework, we investigate how residents in Lausanne, Switzerland, assess the impact of biodiversity and planting composition on the potential of UGIs to adapt cities to climate change. Through a questionnaire-based survey (N = 527) and the use of photomontages and statistics, we examine the perceived potential of biodiverse versus uniform planting compositions to address climate change adaptation in Lausanne. Our findings demonstrate that respondents perceive biodiverse planting compositions as more successful strategies, attributing greater importance to trees in adaptation efforts, while overlooking the contributions of biodiverse herbaceous and shrub strata and soil permeability. Additionally, site characteristics associated with specific urban conditions significantly influence these perceptions. This evidence is subsequently discussed in two ways. Firstly, our analytical framework contributes to assessing the potential of UGIs in climate change adaptation, shedding light on the significance of planting composition. Secondly, the research emphasizes the need to transition from conventional climate-responsive approaches to more nuanced and sensitive methodologies that consider the multifaceted aspects of biodiversity. Such an approach holds promise for advancing the understanding of UGIs in climate change adaptation and informs future research directions.
PubDate: 2023-09-25
- Determining the willingness to link climate and trade policy
Abstract: Abstract Analysts have long advocated a linkage between international cooperation on climate change and trade measures, such as border tariffs, as a means of enforcing agreements to achieve deeper cooperation. Nevertheless, it has remained difficult to evaluate whether policy makers will allow such linkages and whether linking climate and trade would, in reality, yield beneficial effects to international cooperation. Working with a large sample of climate experts who are highly experienced in climate diplomacy and policy, we elicited how they view the legitimacy and usefulness of linking trade and climate and what factors can explain those views. We find that experts from richer countries, especially Europe, are more likely to see linkage as legitimate and effective. These experts are particularly likely to favor universal border adjustments (UBAs) that apply to all countries to level the economic playing field, rather than trade measures that define an exclusive “club” of countries making extra efforts to cut emissions while punishing non-club members. This finding reveals tensions between a shift in academic thinking about the value of club-based strategies—including clubs that use border measures for enforcement—and what climate policy experts see as valuable. European experts are particularly likely to favor UBAs and they are also least likely to see risks in implementing trade measures. In general, countries with high quality national institutions see lower risks in using trade measures to enforce greater cooperation on climate change. A particularly robust finding is that experts who perceive their home country’s emissions reduction pledge as ambitious are more likely to see risks from using trade measures. While these are the countries that could benefit the most from using trade measures, they are also the countries that are offering the most under the existing Paris Agreement. Experts seem to be increasingly aware of the dissonance between the voluntarism of the Paris Agreement and growing political pressures to apply trade measures. We also find the attributes of experts, such as training and career experience, can affect their assessments. In some models, experts with economic or business backgrounds are more likely to favor trade measures while those with careers in natural science, diplomacy, and national government are less sanguine. Our results suggest that diverging views on the need for trade-based enforcement are robust, associated with important attributes of countries such as their commitments, and likely to persist—suggesting that policy strategies favoring the use of trade measures must pay close attention to the conditions that will determine where and how trade measures can be implemented. Experts from many countries that are the biggest supporters of the Paris approach to climate cooperation also doubt the legitimacy of trade measures.
PubDate: 2023-09-25
- Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case
study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i
Abstract: Abstract Climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) will affect a range of coastal assets and prompt difficult decisions about coastal land use across the world. Several recent studies find that current and projected SLR is associated with relatively lower property values. We contribute to this growing body of research with a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, which is famed for its beaches as well as valuable coastal real estate. We leverage a dataset that unpacks multiple types of SLR exposure and coastal parcel attributes. We apply property transaction data for the island of O‘ahu through 2019 to investigate the effect of current and expected SLR exposure on residential property prices. We find that exposed properties have already experienced declines in transaction prices, at 9 to 14%, attributed to expectations of exposure to chronic inundation (as opposed to seasonal flooding). The price declines are mainly for multi-dwelling homes as opposed to single family homes. The market response of residential properties to SLR has important implications for coastal management strategies, in particular the viability and timing of programs for retreat.
PubDate: 2023-09-14
- Assessing the remaining carbon budget through the lens of policy-driven
acidification and temperature targets
Abstract: Basing a remaining carbon budget on warming targets is subject to uncertainty due to uncertainty in the relationship between carbon emissions and warming. Framing emissions targets using a warming target therefore may not prevent dangerous change throughout the entire Earth system. Here, we use a climate emulator to constrain a remaining carbon budget that is more representative of the entire Earth system by using a combination of both warming and ocean acidification targets. The warming targets considered are the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 and 2 °C; the acidification targets are −0.17 and −0.21 pH units, informed by aragonite saturation states where coral growth begins to be compromised. The aim of the dual targets is to prevent not only damage associated with warming, but damage to corals associated with atmospheric carbon and ocean acidification. We find that considering acidification targets in conjunction with warming targets narrows the uncertainty in the remaining carbon budget, especially in situations where the acidification target is more stringent than, or of similar stringency to, the warming target. Considering a strict combination of the two more stringent targets (both targets of 1.5 °C warming and −0.17 acidification must be met), the carbon budget ranges from −74.0 to 129.8PgC. This reduces uncertainty in the carbon budget from by 29% (from 286.2PgC to 203.8PgC). This reduction comes from reducing the high-end estimate of the remaining carbon budget derived from just a warming target. Assuming an emissions rate held constant since 2021 (which is a conservative assumption), the budget towards both targets was either spent by 2019 or will be spent by 2026. Plain language summary The relationship between atmospheric CO2 and warming is uncertain, which means that we do not know precisely how much carbon we have left to emit until we reach the Paris Agreement warming targets of 1.5 and 2 °C. However, the relationship between atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification is better understood, so by considering targets for acidification rather than warming alone, we can narrow down our estimate of how much emitted carbon is acceptable. Including acidification targets as well as warming targets means that we can directly address the issue of ocean acidification, which poses a threat to corals and the ecosystems reliant on them. By considering acidification and warming targets together, we can lower uncertainty in acceptable carbon emissions by 29%.
PubDate: 2023-09-11
- What is a heat(wave)' An interdisciplinary perspective
Abstract: Abstract Excessive summer heat is becoming people’s daily reality creating an urgency to understand heatwaves and their consequences better. This article suggests an interdisciplinary analytical framework of heat(waves) as multiple objects. It brings together data and perspectives from social anthropology, sociology, climate science, epidemiology, and meteorology to map the gaps in knowledge about heat(waves) and their impacts on one of the most vulnerable groups: older adults. Based on research in Poland and Spain, we look at heat(waves) as simultaneously individual experiences, biophysical changes, and socio-political phenomena. Climatologists and meteorologists define heat(waves) as prolonged episodes of abnormally high temperatures. Epidemiologists perceive heat(waves) through raising morbidity and mortality rates. For policymakers, they are an emergency defined by duration and temperature thresholds. Older adults living in Warsaw and Madrid recognize a heat(wave) when they feel it in their bodies, when they cannot sleep, or when they need to change their daily routines. Such differently situated scientific definitions and embodied knowledge stem not only from varied epistemological perspectives but demonstrate that heat(waves) are ontologically different. By looking at convergences and divergences between these perspectives, we see that the length of heat(waves) varies and that older adults often experience longer periods of excessive heat than climate measurements or policy alerts indicate; that the impact of nighttime temperatures is more important than daily temperatures; and that there is a discrepancy between heat(waves) as anomalies and as increasingly common events. The article addresses an important gap between biophysical definitions of heatwaves and the experiences of the most vulnerable groups.
PubDate: 2023-09-11
- Evaluating normative capacity through Arctic environmental governance
Abstract: Abstract International cooperation in the Arctic is largely operationalised through environmental governance in a constellation of institutions that promote scientific knowledge of the Arctic region. While the Arctic Council is placed at the centre of this network for environmental protection and resource management across the region, other institutions play critical roles in facilitating scientific knowledge production that promotes the security and development of the region and its resources across national boundaries. Evaluating the role of environmental protection in Arctic governance within models of science diplomacy, this paper argues that the assumption of environmental responsibility should act as a normative operator for Arctic environmental governance, shaping the relations between actors in this regional network and legitimising decision-making by Arctic states as they socially construct the mechanisms and regional exceptionalism of Arctic governance. However, environmental responsibility falls short of acting as a normative operator for environmental protection that also prevents the impact of climate change on the Arctic environment, excluding its function as an overarching normative operator for the international system, reducing state legitimacy for regional decision-making in extra-territorial spaces.
PubDate: 2023-09-06
- Spatial distribution of indigenous climate indicator development for rural
smallholder farmers in Nkomazi local municipality, South Africa
Abstract: Abstract This study aimed at smallholder farmers to use their indigenous knowledge in combination with modern climate indicators when making farming decisions in Nkomazi Local Municipality, South Africa. Twelve villages were sampled in Nkomazi municipality based on their use of IKS with 100 participants applying both qualitative and quantitative research methods. ArcMap v10.7.1 software was used to map the distribution of indigenous climate indicators in these villages, and SPSS v25.0 software was used to analyse the quantitative data. Qualitative data was analysed through thematic analysis which is used to interpret patterns of meaning within qualitative data. The most used indicators smallholder farmers relied on for weather predictions included animals (31%) followed by plants (26%). The Poynton model predicted negative results with a 50C temperature increase, meaning that if the hot temperatures continue rising, the farmers' indigenous indicators will decline or disappear, making it difficult for rural smallholder farmers to make informed farm-level decisions. Therefore, the study suggests an integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) and local knowledge to adapt to climate change, have access to updated agricultural information and ability to make informed farm-level decisions.
PubDate: 2023-08-30
- Resilience to extreme weather events and local financial structure of
prefecture-level cities in China
Abstract: Abstract We study the local economic impacts of extreme weather events and the role of local finance in economic resilience. We use data on the physical intensities of extreme wind and precipitation events for 284 prefecture-level cities in China between 2004 and 2013. We estimate impulse response functions using a bias-corrected method of moments estimator to capture the dynamic responses of affected cities up to 5 years after such events. We find that extreme precipitation events depress the growth of local GDP per capita for multiple years, while the negative effects of storms vanish after the first year. We then use this model to measure the economic resilience of cities to extreme weather events. Regressions of economic resilience on indicators of the local financial structure suggest that cities with higher levels of debt are less resilient. Moreover, the presence of state-owned commercial banks appears to be instrumental to regional economic resilience. As extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and severe due to climate change, our results inform the emerging debate about regional economic resilience to weather-related shocks.
PubDate: 2023-08-30
- Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria
Abstract: Abstract Landslides are an important natural hazard in mountainous regions. Given the triggering and preconditioning by meteorological conditions, it is known that landslide risk may change in a warming climate, but whether climate change has already affected individual landslide events is still an open question, partly owing to landslide data limitations and methodological challenges in climate impact attribution. Here, we demonstrate the substantial influence of anthropogenic climate change on a severe event in the southeastern Alpine forelands with some estimated 952 individual landslides in June 2009. Our study is based on conditional event attribution complemented by an assessment of changes in atmospheric circulation. Using this approach, we simulate the meteorological event under observed and a range of counterfactual conditions of no climate change and explicitly predict the landslide occurrence probability for these conditions. We find that up to 10%, i.e., 95 landslides, can be attributed to climate change.
PubDate: 2023-08-26
- Is there a generational shift in preferences for forest carbon
sequestration vs. preservation of agricultural landscapes'
Abstract: Abstract Afforestation and reforestation are considered important measures for climate change mitigation. Because the land area available for tree planting may serve multiple purposes, striking the right balance between climate goals and other objectives is crucial. We conducted a survey of the Norwegian population to investigate potential land-use conflicts that may arise from executing a large-scale afforestation programme. Respondents were presented with three land-use alternatives to replace formerly grazed agricultural land. We used manipulated landscape photos to elicit their underlying value orientations. We combined multiple correspondence analysis with latent class regression models to reveal preference heterogeneity. Our models grouped respondents into three latent classes, with 24%, 24% and 52%, respectively, expressing a preference for forest carbon sequestration, recreation or agriculture as the most crucial land-use function to be retained. Birth year emerged as a strong predictor of class membership. Specifically, generations born before 1970 were more inclined to support the continuation of agricultural landscapes, while those born in 1980 and later showed a stronger inclination towards natural forest succession for carbon sequestration or recreational purposes. Quantitatively, every 10-year reduction in age increased the odds of a respondent belonging to the forestation or recreation class (relative to the agricultural class) by a factor of 2. Interestingly, even among respondents who were classified as most climate concerned, natural forests were 50% more likely to be preferred over monoculture spruce plantation as a policy option. This suggests that there may be public resistance to spruce planting for climate mitigation purposes in Norway.
PubDate: 2023-08-24
- Climate change adaptation activities planning and implementation in large
cities: results of research carried out in Poland and selected European
cities
Abstract: Abstract Continuous climate change forces cities to take actions to prevent risks and adapt urban spaces to new conditions. The experience of many European cities in recent years shows that actions adapting urban space to climate change have become an important part of local policy. The subject of the article is the adaptation activities planned and implemented for climate change in urban spaces. The purpose of this article is to classify and identify adaptation activities carried out in large cities. The authors analyzed data from 44 Polish cities and placed them in the context of leading adaptation activities carried out in selected European cities. The purpose of the detailed research is to compare the number and type of activities planned and implemented on the scale of individual Polish cities, indicating dominant and minority activities. The authors conclude that with the passage of time, climate change adaptation activities will have an increasing impact on shaping the landscape of European cities, including those of Poland. Their number will gradually increase, as will the awareness of the city authorities and the activity of local communities. The types of activity will also change and, with them the quality of urban spaces and the quality of life of residents. The authors also conclude that further research will need to conduct quantitative and qualitative studies in the context of the effectiveness of the adaptation process in urban spaces, resulting from the evaluation and monitoring of both systematically updated planning and strategic documents and implemented spatial programs and interventions.
PubDate: 2023-08-11
- Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined
by climate change and cropland incursion
Abstract: Abstract The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.
PubDate: 2023-07-28
- Extreme events in the multi-proxy South Pacific drought atlas
Abstract: Abstract Droughts are a natural occurrence in many small Pacific Islands and can have severe impacts on local populations and environments. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known driver of drought in the South Pacific, but our understanding of extreme ENSO events and their influence on island hydroclimate is limited by the short instrumental record and the infrequency of ENSO extremes. To address this gap, we developed the South Pacific Drought Atlas (SPaDA), a multi-proxy, spatially resolved reconstruction of the November–April Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the southwest Pacific islands. The reconstruction covers the period from 1640 to 1998 CE and is based on nested principal components regression. It replicates historical droughts linked to ENSO events with global influence, compares well to previously published ENSO reconstructions, and is independently verified against fossil coral records from the Pacific. To identify anomalous hydroclimatic states in the SPaDA that may indicate the occurrence of an extreme event, we used an Isolation Forest, an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Extreme El Niño events characterised by very strong southwest Pacific drought anomalies and a zonal SPCZ orientation are shown to have occurred throughout the reconstruction interval, providing a valuable baseline to compare to climate model projections. By identifying the spatial patterns of drought resulting from extreme events, we can better understand the impacts these events may have on individual Pacific Islands in the future.
PubDate: 2023-07-24
- Mapping inundation from sea level rise and its interaction with land cover
in the Sundarbans mangrove forest
Abstract: Abstract The sea level rise (SLR) in the Sundarbans areas is higher than the global-average rate of sea rise, and many studies assume that most of the dry land of the Sundarbans will be inundated by the end of the twenty-first century. This study aims to analyze the amount of dry land that can potentially be inundated by SLR in Sundarbans and the impact under different land cover conditions. Four SLR scenarios, a digital elevation data grid, and net subsidence data are used to map areas that will be potentially inundated by 2100. Results for the low (35 cm), mid (52 cm), high (70 cm), and extreme (147 cm) SLR scenarios indicate that the Sundarbans landmass area will be flooded up to 40 km2 (1%), 72 km2 (1.8%), 136 km2 (3.4%), and 918 km2 (23%), respectively, under the current net subsidence rate of −2.4 mm/year by 2100. Except for the extreme scenarios, the low, mid, and high SLR will result in riverbank and beach areas to be covered by water. The potential inundation areas of different vegetation cover classes that already exist today (2020) will be nominal for the low, mid, and high SLR scenarios. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the results through station-based SLR data, which fits with the low (35 cm) SLR scenarios under the −2.4 mm/year subsidence rate. This study concluded that the inundation aspect of SLR will not directly affect the Sundarbans; however, indirectly related threats and anthropogenic disturbances can be major drivers of the Sundarbans’ degradation by the end of the twenty-first century. This work discusses reasonable inundation scenarios integrating SLR and subsidence with a custom land-cover map that includes three forest-density categories. The study’s findings contribute to forest management planning and support the UN goals of the Bangladesh Delta Plan.
PubDate: 2023-07-21
- Green frontrunner or indebted culprit' Assessing Denmark’s climate
targets in light of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement
Abstract: Abstract This paper contributes to academic and policy debates about climate leadership by illustrating an approach to examining national emission reduction targets focusing on Denmark. Widely recognized as a climate leader, Denmark is cherished for both its historical track record and its current climate targets. With a target of 70% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 stipulated in national law, central actors in Danish policymaking claim that domestic climate policy is aligned with the Paris temperature goals and present Denmark as a ‘green frontrunner.’ We examine the pledges and targets enshrined in the Danish Climate Act in reference to a 1.5 °C global greenhouse gas budget using five different approaches to burden sharing. For all five approaches, we find that the Danish climate target is inadequate given the 1.5 °C goal. Moreover, when only looking at equity approaches for distributive climate justice globally, the Danish target appears drastically insufficient. Denmark is, in this sense, not a green frontrunner but rather an indebted culprit, challenging the dominant narrative in Danish climate policy. Our results thus call into question the premise of the claim of Danish climate leadership, which works to legitimize existing policy and obscure the many dimensions of climate change.
PubDate: 2023-07-20
- Machine learning and the quest for objectivity in climate model
parameterization
Abstract: Abstract Parameterization and parameter tuning are central aspects of climate modeling, and there is widespread consensus that these procedures involve certain subjective elements. Even if the use of these subjective elements is not necessarily epistemically problematic, there is an intuitive appeal for replacing them with more objective (automated) methods, such as machine learning. Relying on several case studies, we argue that, while machine learning techniques may help to improve climate model parameterization in several ways, they still require expert judgment that involves subjective elements not so different from the ones arising in standard parameterization and tuning. The use of machine learning in parameterizations is an art as well as a science and requires careful supervision.
PubDate: 2023-07-18
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03532-1
- Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine
species to climate change
Abstract: Abstract The accelerating pace of climate-induced stress to global ecosystems threatens the sustainable management and conservation of biodiversity. To effectively respond, researchers and managers require rapid vulnerability assessment tools that can be readily implemented using diverse and existing knowledge sources. Here we demonstrate the application of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) for this purpose using a group of coastal-pelagic fishes from south-eastern Australia as a case-study. We show that MCA has the capacity to formally structure diverse knowledge sources, ranging from peer-reviewed information (which informed 29.2% of criteria among models) to expert knowledge (which informed 22.6% of criteria among models), to quantify the sensitivity of species to biophysical conditions. By integrating MCA models with spatial climate data over historical and future periods, we demonstrate the application of MCA for rapidly assessing the vulnerability of marine species to climate change. Spatial analyses revealed an apparent trend among case-study species towards increasing or stable vulnerability to projected climate change throughout the northern (i.e. equatorward) extent of the study domain and the emergence of climate refugia throughout southern (i.e. poleward) regions. Results from projections using the MCA method were consistent with past analyses of the redistribution of suitable habitat for coastal-pelagic fishes off eastern Australia under climate change. By demonstrating the value of MCA for rapidly assessing the vulnerability of marine species to climate change, we highlight the opportunity to develop user-friendly software infrastructures integrated with marine climate projection data to support the interdisciplinary application of this method.
PubDate: 2023-07-15
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03577-2
- Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes' A
meta-review of existing evidence
Abstract: Abstract Due to its potential geo-political and environmental implications, climate migration is an increasing concern to the international community. However, while there is considerable attention devoted to migration in response to sea-level rise, there is a limited understanding of human mobility due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the existing evidence on migration as an adaptation strategy due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. A meta-review of papers published between 2014 and 2019 yielded 67 publications, the majority of which focus on a handful of countries in the Global South. Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and changes in seasonal precipitation patterns were singled out as the most common hazards triggering migration. Importantly, most of the papers discuss mobility as part of a portfolio of responses. Motivations to migrate at the household level range from survival to searching for better economic opportunities. The outcomes of migration are mixed — spanning from higher incomes to difficulties in finding employment after moving and struggles with a higher cost of living. While remittances can be beneficial, migration does not always have a positive outcome for those who are left behind. Furthermore, this meta-review shows that migration, even when desired, is not an option for some of the most vulnerable households. These multifaceted results suggest that, while climate mobility is certainly happening due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes, studies reviewing it are limited and substantial gaps remain in terms of geographical coverage, implementation assessments, and outcomes evaluation. We argue that these gaps need to be filled to inform climate and migration policies that increasingly need to be intertwined rather than shaped in isolation from each other.
PubDate: 2023-07-15
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03573-6
- “Cooling credits” are not a viable climate solution
Abstract: Abstract As the world struggles to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C below pre-industrial temperatures, research into solar climate interventions that could temporarily offset some amount of greenhouse gas-driven global warming by reflecting more sunlight back out to space has gained prominence. These solar climate intervention techniques would aim to cool the Earth by injecting aerosols (tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere) into the upper atmosphere or into low-altitude marine clouds. In a new development, “cooling credits” are now being marketed that claim to offset a certain amount of greenhouse gas warming with aerosol-based cooling. The science of solar climate intervention is currently too uncertain and the quantification of effects insufficient for any such claims to be credible in the near term. More fundamentally, however, the environmental impacts of greenhouse gases and aerosols are too different for such credits to be an appropriate instrument for reducing climate risk even if scientific uncertainties were narrowed and robust monitoring systems put in place. While some form of commercial mechanism for solar climate intervention implementation, in the event it is used, is likely, “cooling credits” are unlikely to be a viable climate solution, either now or in the future.
PubDate: 2023-07-04
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03561-w
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