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- Correction to: Addressing non-economic loss and damage: learning from
autonomous responses in Bangladesh
- Combined location online weather data: easy-to-use targeted weather
analysis for agriculture
Abstract: Abstract The continuing effects of climate change require farmers and growers to have greater understanding of how these changes affect crop production. However, while climatic data is generally available to help provide much of that understanding, it can often be in a form not easy to digest. The proposed Combined Location Online Weather Data (CLOWD) framework is an easy-to-use online platform for analysing recent and historical weather data of any location within Australia at the click of a map. CLOWD requires no programming skills and operates in any HTML5 web browser on PC and mobile devices. It enables comparison between current and previous growing seasons over a range of environmental parameters, and can create a plain-English PDF report for offline use, using natural language generation (NLG). This paper details the platform, the design decisions taken and outlines how farmers and growers can use CLOWD to better understand current growing conditions. Prototypes of CLOWD are now online for PCs and smartphones.
PubDate: 2024-08-22
- The history and future of IPCC special reports: A dual role of
politicisation and normalisation
Abstract: Abstract The special reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have a unique character in IPCC scientific assessment. Their main purpose is to address specific timely issues of policy relevance. This article explores the nature and role of IPCC special reports along the lines of three questions: (1) the history (‘where they come from’); (2) the function (‘what they are doing’); and (3) the future (‘where they are going’). In earlier assessment cycles, special reports were characterised mostly as a direct channel for quickly responding to the request from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conduct of special reports has been gradually institutionalised to embed its planning in the overall scoping of the entire assessment cycle. More recently, they have become a vehicle to consolidate cross-cutting scientific perspectives and serve the diverse needs of the international policy community, not only the UNFCCC. This historical evolution is, in a sense, the result of striving for greater policy relevance. Special reports have a dual political function—namely, turning into the site or object of politicised debates on science (politicisation) and serving as ‘de facto governance’ with the effect of normalising politically contested ideas (normalisation). This dual function is two different faces emerging from the process into which the IPCC is brought to deal with political controversy. The duality of the two functions also manifests inherent tensions that lie behind the IPCC’s ‘policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive’ principle. For the future of special reports, the IPCC could reconsider the role of special reports in light of the priority over comprehensive assessment reports, the responsiveness to the UNFCCC request and the selection and scope definition of timely topics. However, there will remain a trade-off between provisional science and lasting political impact caused by the future undertaking of IPCC special reports on any topic.
PubDate: 2024-08-21
- Modelling climate change impacts on lake ice and snow demonstrates
breeding habitat decline of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal
Abstract: Abstract Snowdrifts on lake ice provide vital breeding habitats for the endangered Saimaa ringed seal. In this study, a lake ice model of Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS-Ice) was developed for improved estimation of ice and snow conditions in Lake Saimaa during the pupping season of the Saimaa ringed seal. The WSFS-Ice model is based on energy balance, enabling reliable estimation of the ice cover evolution in current and future climate. In addition, a simple snowdrift model was used to simulate formation of snowdrifts, which are essential for the seals breeding success in Lake Saimaa. The model was calibrated against ice thickness, ice type and snow depth measurements. According to our results based on climate scenarios with intermediate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), the breeding habitat of the Saimaa ringed seal is significantly deteriorating during the twenty-first century. The mean depth of the snowdrifts is projected to decrease approximately to half from the 1981–2010 to 2070–99 period and at the same time the ice-covered period is reduced by one and a half months. During the mildest winters the ice cover is projected to melt even before the pupping season has ended. The results highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and active conservation measures to enhance seal population growth, enabling it to survive in a changing climate.
PubDate: 2024-08-19
- On Micropolitics: Climate adaptation and Indigenous governance in Western
Alaska
Abstract: Abstract Climate adaptation for Indigenous communities is not as simple as making good policy; it is equally about how policy is implemented and how collaboration unfolds between settler governments and Indigenous stakeholders. Rural Alaska Native villages are among the most environmentally threatened communities in the United States. Their ability to effectively manage environmental change and preserve sovereignty depends upon successful collaboration with a range of stakeholders, especially federal agencies. For more than two decades, academics and government agencies have documented a consistent pattern of failures, particularly by federal actors, to effectively manage adaptation challenges. These obstacles are sometimes misrepresented as policy failures. While poor policy is certainly involved in these poor outcomes, this paper highlights a set of barriers to successful collaboration that are not policy issues, per se, but rather micropolitical issues; that is, they pertain to the conduct of government in the context of Tribal relationships. Unaddressed, these micropolitical issues have created obstacles to Alaska Native communities’ self-determination as they adapt to a changing landscape. These barriers are explored in a case study drawn from Typhoon Merbok, which struck Western Alaska in 2022, and empirically grounded in a series of interviews and participant observation with experts, elders, elected officials, and Tribal staff. This article concludes with several concrete recommendations to improve the practice of domestic diplomacy between Indigenous communities and colonial governments.
PubDate: 2024-08-19
- Missing in action: capacity and capacity building in the IPCC’s AR 6
Abstract: Abstract Capacity building is recognized as one of three means of implementation (MOI) within the Paris Agreement, along with finance and technology. There is a good reason for this, namely that all aspects of climate action require multiple forms of capacity. In fact, it could be argued that capacity is foundational even to the other two MOIs as advancing both finance and technology requires a variety of capacities across multiple specific contexts. The Global Stocktake (GST) recognized the importance of capacity building for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and included its assessment within its evaluation of progress. However, unlike the other two MOIs, no chapter within the IPCC AR6 explicitly attempts to synthesize the state of knowledge about capacity or capacity building for climate action, and coverage of capacity remains scattered across the report. In this commentary we briefly reflect on the coverage of capacity and capacity building in the IPCC’s AR6 and develop some initial proposals for how knowledge about this key MOI could be better included in future assessment processes.
PubDate: 2024-08-15
- Government participation in virtual negotiations: evidence from IPCC
approval sessions
Abstract: Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic challenged global governance in unprecedented ways by requiring intergovernmental meetings to be held online. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this meant that the intergovernmental approval of the key findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) had to be conducted virtually. In this paper, we assess how the move away from face-to-face meetings affected country participation in IPCC approval sessions. Our findings demonstrate that virtual meetings increased the size of member governments’ delegations, but this did not necessarily translate into a greater number of interventions during the approval of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) as time zone differences reduced engagement levels significantly—particularly for countries from the Pacific, East Asian, and Latin American regions whose delegations often found themselves in IPCC meetings late at night and early in the morning. These results offer initial, empirically robust evidence about what online meetings can and cannot achieve for promoting more inclusive global governance at a time when the IPCC and other organizations reflect on the future use of virtual and hybrid meeting formats.
PubDate: 2024-08-13
- Agricultural soils in climate change mitigation: comparing action-based
and results-based programmes for carbon sequestration
Abstract: Abstract Removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is a major challenge for today’s society. A great source of potential for greenhouse gas sequestration is beneath our feet: agricultural soil. By accumulating soil organic carbon in soil, farmers can sequester carbon dioxide and simultaneously reach soils more resilient to extreme weather events. To encourage farmers to build up humus and thus sequester carbon, some humus programmes have been developed by non-governmental organisations. In this regard, action-based reward systems are on their way to challenging the established results-based approaches. Against this background, we analyse how action-based and results-based approaches, as well as other crucial features of humus programmes, affect farmers’ willingness to participate in a humus programme. We conducted a Discrete-Choice-Experiment and analysed it using a mixed logit model. The results show that farmers have a statistically significant preference for action-based humus programmes, shorter programme durations, higher incentives, and an annual and government-funded payment. More specifically, farmer participation is twice as likely if humus formation is rewarded for action rather than results. The willingness-to-accept calculation indicates that a results-based humus programme would cost the funding agency about €20 more per ton of carbon dioxide sequestered in the soil. Above all, humus programmes with an action-based approach and annual payments would increase farmers’ willingness to participate. Our results contribute to the development of targeted humus programmes and policies to increase carbon sequestration in agricultural soils.
PubDate: 2024-08-12
- Should we change the term we use for “climate change”' Evidence from a
national U.S. terminology experiment
Abstract: Abstract The terms “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” and “climate justice” each draw attention to different aspects of climate change. Psychological theories of attitude formation suggest that people’s attitudes can be influenced by such variations in terminology. In a national experiment, we randomly assigned a national sample of 5,137 U.S. residents to “climate change,” “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” or “climate justice” and examined their responses. Overall, “climate change” and “global warming” were rated as most familiar and most concerning, and “climate justice” the least, with ratings for “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” falling in between. Moreover, we find no evidence for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” eliciting more perceived urgency than “climate change” or “global warming.” Rated willingness to support climate-friendly policies and eat less red meat were less affected by presented terms, but they were lowest for “climate justice.” Although effects of terms on rated familiarity, concern, and perceived urgency varied by political leaning, “climate justice” generally received the lowest ratings on these variables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independent/others. Auxiliary analyses found that when terms were unfamiliar, participants were generally less likely to express concern, urgency, policy support, or willingness to eat less red meat. We therefore recommend sticking with familiar terms, conclude that changing terminology is likely not the key solution for promoting climate action, and suggest alternative communication strategies.
PubDate: 2024-08-12
- Climate justice, forests, and Indigenous Peoples: toward an alternative to
REDD + for the Amazon
- Climate change distress, entrapment, and suicidal ideation
Abstract: Abstract Climate change distress has been shown to be associated with markers of negative mental health. However, it is unclear whether climate change distress is also associated with suicidal ideation and whether this association might be mediated by perceptions of entrapment. On this background, the purpose of the present study was to investigate the association between climate change distress/impairment, entrapment, and suicidal ideation. Participants were recruited at a university in the Ruhr region in Germany. Overall, 323 participants (68.4% female; Mage=26.14, SDage=8.35, range: 18–63 years) filled out self-report questionnaires on climate change distress/impairment, entrapment, and suicidal ideation online. Climate change distress/impairment was significantly positively associated with suicidal ideation. Entrapment completely mediated the association between climate change distress/impairment and suicidal ideation. Results underlines how stressful and existential climate change is experienced by many young persons. Findings underscore the need to develop and evaluate interventions to target climate change distress/impairment.
PubDate: 2024-07-24
- Addressing non-economic loss and damage: learning from autonomous
responses in Bangladesh
Abstract: Abstract People in the Majority World disproportionately experience Loss and Damage (L&D) related to climate change. Policymakers and researchers are exploring ways to address L&D. However, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how to address what has been termed Non-Economic Loss and Damage (NELD). We contribute to filling this knowledge gap by analysing the NELD people are experiencing and by exploring autonomous responses to these impacts. This study took place in two regions of Bangladesh: the southwestern Shyamnagar Upazila and the northcentral Durgapur Upazila. We find that people autonomously formulate responses to various NELD from different climate-related hazards (e.g., droughts, floods, and heatwaves). In doing so, people rely on various factors, such as financial assets and social relationships, to respond to NELD. However, because marginalised groups and individuals have little capacity to respond, they are forced to adopt certain responses that further erode their well-being. Moving forward, interventions responding to NELD can identify, build on, support and complement some of these existing responses. We argue that strengthening the capacity of affected people will better enable people to formulate non-erosive responses to NELD.
PubDate: 2024-07-22
- Patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents: Differences in
emotions concerning the future, moral responsibility, and climate-change
engagement
Abstract: Abstract Young people both are and will be greatly affected by climate change, an insight which can trigger a range of stressful emotions concerning the future. How young people cope with climate change as a stressor can be of importance for both moral responsibility and climate-change engagement. People often use a combination of coping strategies; however, the focus thus far has merely been on isolated coping strategies. Using a person-centered approach, the aim of this study was to examine: (1) patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents and (2) if late adolescents characterized by unique patterns of coping differ regarding emotions concerning the future (worry, pessimism, optimism), moral responsibility, and climate-change engagement (outcome expectancy and climate-friendly food choices). A questionnaire study was conducted with 474 Swedish senior high-school students (16–22 years old, mean age: 17.91). A cluster analysis revealed three unique patterns of coping: The solution-oriented group (43%, high on problem- and meaning-focused coping), the avoidant group (33%, high on de-emphasizing and meaning-focused coping), and the uninvolved group (24%, low on all coping strategies). The solution-oriented group differed from the other two groups in reporting more climate-change worry, moral responsibility, outcome expectancy, and climate-friendly food choices. The uninvolved group reported more climate-change worry, moral responsibility, and climate-friendly food choices than the avoidant group, and the least optimism. The avoidant group was the least pessimistic. Our results reveal the importance of exploring patterns of climate-change coping to understand young people’s engagement concerning this global threat.
PubDate: 2024-07-22
- Blue rings in Bristlecone pine as a high resolution indicator of past
cooling events
Abstract: Abstract This study develops the use of ‘blue rings’ (BR), reflecting incomplete cell wall lignification, as a sensitive thermal indicator in bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey). Using double-stained anatomical thin-sections, we explore the climatic and topographical constraints governing BR formation by developing a time-series from 83 cores and comparing BR occurrence with the full temporal span of available climatic data (1895–2008 CE). Lignification is temperature-dependent and continues at a cellular level post-radial growth completion. As BRs reflect incomplete lignification, they can serve as a higher resolution and more sensitive proxy for past cooling than previously established tree-growth indicators. Results indicate that blue ring formation is primarily induced by low September temperatures and responds more sensitively to cooling than the well-established frost-ring record. Additionally, the occurrence and intensity of blue rings decreases gradually below the upper tree line. Bristlecone pine BRs are demonstrated to have significant capacity to enhance the reconstruction of past cooling events in North America connected with both localized and hemispheric scale forcing over multi-millennial timescales. Given its unmatched longevity, the species offers an unparalleled potential for Holocene length climate reconstruction. Findings also highlight the potential for blue rings to provide a more nuanced understanding of past temperature fluctuations across multi-millennial timescales.
PubDate: 2024-07-19
- Correction to: Impacts of climate change and agricultural diversification
on agricultural production value of Thai farm households
- Assessing spatial thermal comfort and adaptation measures for the Antalya
basin under climate change scenarios
Abstract: Abstract The concrete damages of climate change are intensifying, and adaptation efforts of actors around the world are increasing, especially in coastal regions. Recommending adaptation measures for specific regions and sectors and determining long-term strategies for mitigating global climate change is essential for reducing vulnerability to climate change. This research aims to estimate the changes in climatic parameters and thermal comfort zones to determine concrete targets and offer suggestions for sectors affected by possible changes. The changes that will occur until 2100 in the Antalya basin, which is located in the southernmost part of Türkiye and is a significant hub for agricultural production and tourism, were monitored spatially using Discomfort Index (DI) and Effective Temperature taking wind velocity (ETv). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): SSP 245 and SSP 585 predict that the quite cool areas prevailing in the area, according to ETv, will shrink by 24% and 46%, respectively, and the prevailing cold areas, according to DI, will shrink by 45% and 56%, respectively. By 2100, 5% of the area, according to SSP 245, and 25%, according to SSP 585, will turn into hot areas and move away from the comfort level. The fact that critical regions are areas with high vitality in terms of coastal tourism shows the need to prioritize adaptation policies. These discoveries are discussed in the context of critical issues such as water scarcity and food security, contributing to policy-making for effective management by suggesting specific adaptation measures.
PubDate: 2024-07-17
- Impact of behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural
practices on the food and nutrition security of farming households: A
microeconomic level evidence
Abstract: Abstract The study examined the behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices (CSA) and its impact on the food-nutrition security (FNS) of farming households in South Africa. We employed a multistage sampling procedure to select rural maize farmers across the selected villages. To determine the impacts of behavioural adoption of CSA on the FNS of farming households, endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) was employed, while household dietary diversity score (HDDS) and household food insecurity access score (HFIAS) were used to determine the FNS status of the households. The findings emphasized the significance of the behavioural intentions of rural maize farmers, assessed through their attitudinal dimensions (measured in terms of perceived social norms, behavioural intentions, and control) in influencing the adoption decision of CSA practices, hence CSA adoption positively impacts FNS in South Africa. The result indicates that households that adopt CSA observe a 27% and 23% increase in HDDS and a decrease in HFIAS compared to those who do not adopt CSA practices, respectively. Thus, the outcome illustrates that the adoption of CSA practices substantially enhances the HDDS and HFIAS of rural maize farming households in South Africa. Following this backdrop, a concerted effort to raise knowledge of CSA practices through disseminating pertinent information will exert influence on the farmers' adoption behaviour towards CSA practices, which is capable of improving the FNS of rural maize farmers.
PubDate: 2024-07-11
- Does drought exposure erode trust in the political system in Sub-Saharan
Africa'
Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of severe droughts. As water scarcity can destroy vital resources such as crops and livestock, droughts pose major challenges to affected societies. Concerns arise that the resulting hardship and suffering could exacerbate social tensions. Trust in the political system, defined as citizens’ overall confidence in the state to deliver satisfactory outcomes, is an integral foundation of stable state-society relations. To illuminate under what conditions droughts might exert a destabilizing effect, investigating their impact on trust in the political system is paramount. Our study is the first to investigate how drought exposure influences citizens´ overall confidence in the political system. Previous research shows that citizens tend to lose trust when dissatisfied with the living conditions and output that a system provides. While droughts emerge gradually and, thus, give states multiple opportunities to intervene, states in the Global South often struggle to master the challenging task of drought management, thereby demonstrating inadequate, dissatisfactory state performance. We argue that failures in successful drought management showcase what goes wrong in a political system, which in turn leads to an erosion of trust in the political system. Using individual-level survey data from Afrobarometer round five, matched with high-resolution water scarcity data, our analysis reveals that recently drought-exposed individuals exhibit significantly lower levels of trust in the political system compared to their unaffected counterparts. This effect is most pronounced in sub-national regions with low state capacity, where the implementation of successful drought relief measures might be particularly difficult.
PubDate: 2024-07-01
- Impacts of climate change and agricultural diversification on agricultural
production value of Thai farm households
Abstract: Abstract This paper examines how rising temperatures impact the agricultural production value of Thai farmers, compares potential adaptation strategies like agricultural diversification, and analyzes future projections based on IPCC AR6 scenarios. We analyze nationally representative socioeconomic survey data from farm households alongside ERA5 weather data, utilizing econometric regression analysis. Our analysis reveals that higher temperatures lead to a reduction in agricultural output value, with the situation expected to worsen as global warming progresses. Furthermore, we find that households with diversified production practices, such as a variety of agricultural activities or multicropping, exhibit a greater capacity to adapt to rising temperatures. These findings substantiate the importance of the country’s policies promoting integrated farming and diversified crop-mix strategies.
PubDate: 2024-06-28
- A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global
warming on Korean peak summers
Abstract: Abstract In recent years, South Korea has experienced a notable escalation in the intensity and frequency of summer heat. To quantitatively gauge the impact of global warming on Korean summers, this study employs the Time of Emergence (TOE) method, assessing when the effects of global warming surpass natural climate variability. Determining a precise regional TOE is challenging due to disparities between modeled climates and observations. For peak summer seasons (July and August), TOE estimates range from the 2010s to the early 2030s in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5, suggesting an imminent or already reached TOE. However, for the same scenario, different methodologies and datasets project the TOE to the late 21st century, suggesting the existence of uncertainty in the TOE. One reason for this uncertainty is the discrepancies identified between climate models and observations, which suggest that climate models could delay the TOE beyond the present time. Furthermore, from 1959 to 2014, global warming accounts for less than 10% of the observed temperature. Despite this, the strengthening of global warming signals is confirmed, leading to the expectation of more extreme events than those seen in the 2018 heat wave. This raises questions about current estimates of TOE and emphasizes the need for robust climate modeling to inform effective climate action.
PubDate: 2024-06-27
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